[go: up one dir, main page]

Academia.eduAcademia.edu
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³LURQ UHVSRQVLYH HOHPHQWV´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³R[LGDWLYHVWUHVV´LVHQ FRXQWHUHGLQGLVHDVHVRIKHUHGLWDU\DQGVHFRQGDU\LURQRYHUORDGVXFKDVKHUHGLWDU\ KHPRFKURPDWRVLVDQGVHFRQGDU\ WUDQVIXVLRQDO VLGHURVLVZKLFKHYHQWXDOO\UHVXOWLQ OLYHUGDPDJHDQGKHDUWIDLOXUH2[LGDWLYHVWUHVVLVDOVRDKDOOPDUNRIQHXURGHJHQHU DWLYHGLVRUGHUVVXFKDV3DUNLQVRQ¶VDQG$O]KHLPHU¶VGLVHDVHVZKHUHLURQDFFXPX ODWHVSDWKRORJLFDOO\LQWKHVXEVWDQWLDQLJUDRULQVHQLOHSODTXHVUHVSHFWLYHO\(YHQ $GGUHVVIRUFRUUHVSRQGHQFH.RVWDV3DQWRSRXORV/DG\'DYLV,QVWLWXWHIRU0HGLFDO5HVHDUFK 6LU 0RUWLPHU % 'DYLV -HZLVK *HQHUDO +RVSLWDO  &RWH6WH&DWKHULQH 5RDG 0RQWUHDO 4XHEHF+7(&DQDGD9RLFHH[WID[ NRVWDVSDQWRSRXORV#PFJLOOFD $QQ1<$FDG6FL±  ‹1HZ<RUN$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHV GRLDQQDOV   $11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6 WKRXJKLWLVVWLOOQRWFOHDUZKHWKHUWKLVLVDSULPDU\FDXVHRUDVHFRQGDU\HIIHFWLURQ LVLQFUHDVLQJO\EHLQJFRQVLGHUHGDVDSDWKRJHQLFFRIDFWRU 29(59,(:2),5210(7$%2/,60 7KHKXPDQERG\FRQWDLQVa±JLURQIURPZKLFKWKHYDVWPDMRULW\ a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a,URQLVWKHQWUDQVSRUWHGDFURVV WKHHQGRVRPDOPHPEUDQHE\'07DQGXWLOL]HGIRUWKHV\QWKHVLVRILURQFRQWDLQLQJ SURWHLQV([FHVVRILQWUDFHOOXODULURQLVVHTXHVWHUHGLQWRIHUULWLQDVKHOOOLNHSURWHLQ FRPSRVHGRIVXEXQLWVRI+DQG/FKDLQVWKDWFDQVWRUHXSWR)H ,,, DWRPV $ IUDFWLRQ RI F\WRVROLF LURQ NQRZQ DV ³ODELOH LURQ SRRO´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³ODELOH LURQSRRO´ /,3 GHWHUPLQHVWKHFHOOXODULURQVWDWXV  $11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6 ),*85(  $  7KH FRQVHQVXV ,5( PRWLI ,W FRQVLVWV RI D KH[DQXFOHRWLGH ORRS ′ &$*8*1′ DQGDVWHPLQWHUUXSWHGE\DEXOJHZLWKDQXQSDLUHG&UHVLGXH%DVHSDLULQJ EHWZHHQ&DQG*LVIXQFWLRQDOO\LPSRUWDQW1FRXOGEHDQ\QXFOHRWLGHEXWQRW*ZKLFK ZRXOGSRWHQWLDOO\GLVUXSW&±*LQWHUDFWLRQE\&±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³LURQ UHVSRQVLYH HOHPHQWV´ ,5(V  LQ WKHLU XQWUDQVODWHG UHJLRQV 875V  7KHVH KDLUSLQ VWUXFWXUHVFRQVLVWRIaQXFOHRWLGHVDQGDUHSK\ORJHQHWLFDOO\FRQVHUYHGLQYHUWH EUDWHVDQGVRPHLQVHFWVDQGEDFWHULD ),* $ 7KHKDLUSLQLQDW\SLFDO,5(IRUPV D′&$*8*1′ORRS WKHXQGHUOLQHG&DQG*LQWHUDFWE\K\GURJHQERQGLQJ DQG D VWHP ZLWK PRGHUDWH VWDELOLW\ ∆* ≈฀ − NFDOPRO  LQWHUUXSWHG E\ DQ XQSDLUHG & UHVLGXH7KH7I5P51$FRQWDLQVILYH,5(FRSLHVLQLWV′875DQGLVWKXVIDUWKH RQO\LGHQWLILHG,5(FRQWDLQLQJP51$ZLWKPXOWLSOH,5(V%\FRQWUDVWWKHP51$V HQFRGLQJ+DQG/IHUULWLQFRQWDLQDVLQJOH,5(LQWKHLU′875$FKDUDFWHULVWLF IHDWXUHRIWKHIHUULWLQ,5(LVWKDWWKHXQSDLUHG&UHVLGXHLVORFDWHGZLWKLQDQLQWHUQDO ORRSEXOJH ,QLURQVWDUYHGFHOOVWKH,5(VEHFRPHWDUJHWVRIWZRF\WRSODVPLFLURQUHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQV,53DQG,53ZKLFKELQGWRWKHPZLWKKLJKDIILQLW\ .G≈฀−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′875DQGRSHUDWHVDVDWUDQVODWLRQDOFRQWUROHOHPHQW7KH,53PHGLDWHGLQKLELWLRQ RI$/$6V\QWKHVLVLQLURQVWDUYHGHU\WKURLGFHOOVLVWKRXJKWWRSUHYHQWWKHDFFXPX ODWLRQ RI WR[LF SURWRSRUSK\ULQ ,; ZKHQ LURQ LV OLPLWLQJ IRU KHPH V\QWKHVLV 7KH P51$VHQFRGLQJ'07DQGIHUURSRUWLQFRQWDLQDVLQJOH,5(LQWKHLU′RU′875 UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZKLFK SUREDEO\ DFFRXQWV IRU WKH LQFUHDVHG GXRGHQDO H[SUHVVLRQ RI WKHVH WUDQVSRUWHUV LQ PLFH IHG ZLWK DQ LURQGHILFLHQW GLHW 7KH H[SUHVVLRQ RI DOWHUQDWLYHO\VSOLFHG'07WUDQVFULSWVODFNLQJWKH,5(VKRXOGDOVREHQRWHG7KH PHFKDQLVPIRU,5(GHSHQGHQWUHJXODWLRQRI'07DQGIHUURSRUWLQP51$VLVVWLOO QRWFOHDUDQGPD\H[KLELWDFHOOW\SHVSHFLILFSDWWHUQ7KHIXQFWLRQDOLW\RI'07 ,5(DSSHDUVWRUHTXLUHHOHPHQWVRIWKHDOWHUQDWLYHO\VSOLFHGXSVWUHDPH[RQ$ZLWKLQ '07P51$ ,QWHUHVWLQJO\WUDQVODWLRQW\SH,5(VKDYHDOVREHHQLGHQWLILHGLQWKH′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±7KH REVHUYHG TXDQWLWDWLYH GLIIHUHQFHV PD\ UHIOHFW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ ,5( VHTXHQFHV DQG VWUXFWXUH  $11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6 ,5215(*8/$725<3527(,16,53$1',53 ,53DQG,53DUHKRPRORJRXVF\WRSODVPLFSRO\SHSWLGHVRIDQGDPLQR DFLGVUHVSHFWLYHO\DQGEHORQJWRWKHIDPLO\RILURQVXOIXUFOXVWHULVRPHUDVHV±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±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−−DQG,53−−DQLPDOVLVH[SHFWHGWR VKHGOLJKWRQWKLVLVVXH ,53−−DQG,53−−PLFHKDYHEHHQJHQHUDWHGLQWKH5RXDXOWODE7KHWDUJHWHG GLVUXSWLRQRI,53GLGQRW\LHOGDQ\REYLRXVSKHQRW\SH%\FRQWUDVWWKH,53−−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³IXQFWLRQDOLURQGHSOHWLRQ´GXHWR RYHUH[SUHVVLRQ RI IHUULWLQ DQG LURQ VHTXHVWUDWLRQ ZLWKLQ LW LQ GLVWDO D[RQV 7KLV VFHQDULRVKRZVVRPHVLPLODULWLHVWR³QHXURIHUULWLQRSDWK\´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‡− UHTXLUHVFRPSOHWHFOXVWHUGLVDVVHPEO\7KXVWKHVXSHUR[LGHDQLRQ 2  RUSHUR[\ QLWULWH 122‡ UHDGLO\GLPLQLVKHVWKHDFRQLWDVHDFWLYLW\RI,53EXWIDLOVWRFRQYHUW LWLQWRDQ,5(ELQGLQJSURWHLQ±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−ILEUREODVWVWR6QLWURVR1DFHW\O' / SHQLFLOODPLQH 61$3  D GRQRU RI 12 DQG GHVIHUULR[DPLQH DQ LURQ FKHODWRU VKRZ UHPDUNDEOH VLPLODULWLHV 7KXV ,53 DFWLYDWLRQ UHTXLUHV DW OHDVW  K RI FRQWLQXRXV WUHDWPHQW ZLWK HDFK RI WKHVH GUXJV ZKLOH WKH ³VWUHVV DFWLYDWLRQ´ RI ,53 LV WULJJHUHG E\ D WUDQVLHQWSXOVHZLWK+2DQGRFFXUVZLWKLQ±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³GHJUDGDWLRQ GRPDLQ´ DQG IXQFWLRQ DV DQ LURQ VHQVRU 7KH UHFRJQLWLRQ E\ WKH SURWHDVRPHLVPHGLDWHGE\WKHVLWHVSHFLILFR[LGDWLRQRIWKUHHFULWLFDOF\VWHLQHUHVL GXHV &&DQG& SRVVLEO\DVDUHVXOWRIWKHGLUHFWELQGLQJRILURQ,Q VXSSRUWRIWKLVYLHZUHFHQWLQYLWURVWXGLHVZLWKDUHFRPELQDQW³GHJUDGDWLRQGRPDLQ´ SHSWLGHVKRZHGLURQGHSHQGHQWJHQHUDWLRQRIR[LGL]HGF\VWHLQHVSHFLHV,QDGGL WLRQDWZRK\EULGVFUHHQZLWKWKH³GHJUDGDWLRQGRPDLQ´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³F\VWHLQHR[LGDWLRQPRGHO´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α +,)α ±DQGWKXVIXQFWLRQDVR[\JHQVHQVRUV7KHPHFKD QLVPLQYROYHVK\GUR[\ODWLRQRI3DQG3ZLWKLQDQR[\JHQGHSHQGHQWGHJUD GDWLRQGRPDLQ7KLVPRGLILFDWLRQSURYLGHVDUHFRJQLWLRQVLWHIRUWKHYRQ+LSSHO± /LQGDXWXPRUVXSSUHVVRUSURWHLQ S9+/ FRPSRQHQWRIDXELTXLWLQOLJDVHFRPSOH[ 7KH SDWKZD\V IRU LURQ DQG R[\JHQGHSHQGHQW GHJUDGDWLRQ RI ,53 DQG +,)α VKDUHUHPDUNDEOHVLPLODULWLHV+RZHYHUS9+/GRHVQRWDSSHDUWREHLQYROYHG LQWKHUHJXODWLRQRI,53DVHQGRJHQRXV,53XQGHUJRHVXQLPSHGHGLURQGHSHQGHQW GHJUDGDWLRQLQ9+/GHILFLHQWFHOOOLQHV :DQJ 3DQWRSRXORVLQSUHSDUDWLRQ  2QDILQDOQRWH,53DOVRUHVSRQGVWR12+RZHYHUWKHUHLVVRPHFRQIXVLRQLQ WKHOLWHUDWXUHRQZKHWKHU12DFWXDOO\DFWLYDWHVRULQKLELWV,53 GLVFXVVHGLQUHI  7KLVPD\EHUHODWHGWRRSSRVLQJHIIHFWVRIGLIIHUHQWUHGR[VSHFLHVRI12RQ,53,W DSSHDUVWKDWQLWURJHQPRQR[LGH WKH12‡UDGLFDO SURPRWHVWKHVWDELOL]DWLRQRI,53 SRVVLEO\ LQGLUHFWO\ E\ PRGXODWLQJ WKH /,3 ZKLOH WKH QLWURVRQLXP FDWLRQ 12+ PHGLDWHV ,53 GHJUDGDWLRQ 7KH FRPSOH[LW\ RI ,53 DQG ,53  UHVSRQVHV WR GLIIHUHQW VLJQDOV LOOXVWUDWHV WKDW WKH ,5(,53 V\VWHP LQWHJUDWHV GLYHUVH UHJXODWRU\ SDWKZD\VZKLFKOLQNWKHVWXG\RILURQPHWDEROLVPWRK\SR[LDR[LGDWLYHVWUHVVDQG LQIODPPDWLRQ $&.12:/('*0(176 . 3DQWRSRXORV LV D VFKRODU RI WKH &DQDGLDQ ,QVWLWXWHV RI +HDOWK 5HVHDUFK &,+5  5()(5(1&(6  $1'5(:61&'LVRUGHUVRILURQPHWDEROLVP1(QJO-0HG±  6,3(-&3/(( (%(87/(5%UDLQLURQPHWDEROLVPDQGQHXURGHJHQHUDWLYH GLVRUGHUV'HY1HXURVFL±  %(5*'HWDO%UDLQLURQSDWKZD\VDQGWKHLUUHOHYDQFHWR3DUNLQVRQ¶VGLVHDVH- 1HXURFKHP±  %,6+23 *0 HW DO  ,URQ D SDWKRORJLFDO PHGLDWRU RI $O]KHLPHU GLVHDVH" 'HY 1HXURVFL±  528$8/7 7$  6\VWHPLF LURQ PHWDEROLVP D UHYLHZ DQG LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU EUDLQ LURQPHWDEROLVP3HGLDWU1HXURO±  .( <  = 0,1* 4,$1  ,URQ PLVUHJXODWLRQ LQ WKH EUDLQ D SULPDU\ FDXVH RI QHXURGHJHQHUDWLYHGLVRUGHUV/DQFHW1HXURO±  321.$ 3  7LVVXHVSHFLILF UHJXODWLRQ RI LURQ PHWDEROLVP DQG KHPH V\QWKHVLV GLVWLQFWFRQWUROPHFKDQLVPVLQHU\WKURLGFHOOV%ORRG±  $1'5(:6 1&  ,URQ KRPHRVWDVLV LQVLJKWV IURP JHQHWLFV DQG DQLPDO PRGHOV 1DW5HY*HQHW±  $,6(1 3 & (116  0 :(66/,1*5(61,&.  &KHPLVWU\ DQG ELRORJ\ RI HXNDU\RWLFLURQPHWDEROLVP,QW-%LRFKHP&HOO%LRO±  321.$ 3 & %($80217  '5 5,&+$5'621  )XQFWLRQ DQG UHJXODWLRQ RI WUDQVIHUULQDQGIHUULWLQ6HPLQ+HPDWRO±  $,6(130:(66/,1*5(61,&. ($/(,%2/',URQPHWDEROLVP&XUU2SLQ &KHP%LRO±  .$.+/21 2  =, &$%$17&+,.   7KH ODELOH LURQ SRRO FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ PHDVXUHPHQW DQG SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ FHOOXODU SURFHVVHV )UHH 5DGLFDO %LRO 0HG  ± 3$172328/26,5(,535(*8/$725<6<67(0   +(17=(0: /&.h+10ROHFXODUFRQWURORIYHUWHEUDWHLURQPHWDEROLVP P51$EDVHGUHJXODWRU\FLUFXLWVRSHUDWHGE\LURQQLWULFR[LGHDQGR[LGDWLYHVWUHVV 3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$±  528$8/7 7  -% +$5)25'  7UDQVODWLRQDO FRQWURO RI IHUULWLQ V\QWKHVLV ,Q 7UDQVODWLRQDO&RQWURORI*HQH([SUHVVLRQSS±&ROG6SULQJ+DUERU/DERUD WRU\3UHVV&ROG6SULQJ+DUERU1HZ<RUN  -2+$16621+( (&7+(,/,URQUHVSRQVHHOHPHQW ,5( VWUXFWXUHDQGFRP ELQDWRULDO 51$UHJXODWLRQ,Q0ROHFXODUDQG&HOOXODU,URQ 7UDQVSRUW SS ± 'HNNHU1HZ<RUN%DVHO  *816+,1 + HW DO  &ORQLQJ DQG FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI D PDPPDOLDQ SURWHLQ FRXSOHGPHWDOLRQWUDQVSRUWHU1DWXUH±  0&.,( $7 HW DO  $ QRYHO GXRGHQDO LURQUHJXODWHG WUDQVSRUWHU ,5(* LPSOL FDWHGLQWKHEDVRODWHUDOWUDQVIHURILURQWRWKHFLUFXODWLRQ0RO&HOO±  *816+,1 + HW DO  ,URQGHSHQGHQW UHJXODWLRQ RI WKH GLYDOHQW PHWDO LRQ WUDQVSRUWHU)(%6/HWW±  +8%(57 1  0: +(17=(  3UHYLRXVO\ XQFKDUDFWHUL]HG LVRIRUPV RI GLYDOHQW PHWDOWUDQVSRUWHU '07 ±LPSOLFDWLRQVIRUUHJXODWLRQDQGFHOOXODUIXQFWLRQ3URF 1DWO$FDG6FL86$±  *5$< 1.HW DO  7UDQVODWLRQDO UHJXODWLRQ RI PDPPDOLDQ DQG GURVRSKLOD FLWULF DFLG F\FOH HQ]\PHV YLD LURQUHVSRQVLYH HOHPHQWV 3URF 1DWO $FDG 6FL 86$  ±  6&+$/,16.(./26&+(1 56(,6(167(,1,URQGLIIHUHQWLDOO\VWLPXODWHV WUDQVODWLRQ RI PLWRFKRQGULDO DFRQLWDVH DQG IHUULWLQ P51$V LQ PDPPDOLDQ FHOOV LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU LURQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQV DV UHJXODWRUV RI PLWRFKRQGULDO FLWUDWH XWLOL]DWLRQ-%LRO&KHP±  &$/7$*,521( $ * :(,66  . 3$172328/26  0RGXODWLRQ RI FHOOXODU LURQ PHWDEROLVPE\K\GURJHQSHUR[LGHHIIHFWVRI+2RQWKHH[SUHVVLRQDQGIXQFWLRQRI LURQUHVSRQVLYH HOHPHQW±FRQWDLQLQJ P51$V LQ % ILEUREODVWV - %LRO &KHP  ±  6&+1(,'(5%' ($/(,%2/'(IIHFWVRILURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQUHJXODWLRQ RQLURQKRPHRVWDVLVGXULQJK\SR[LD%ORRG±  .( < HW DO  /RRSV DQG EXOJHORRSV LQ LURQUHVSRQVLYH HOHPHQW LVRIRUPV LQIOXHQFHLURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQELQGLQJ-%LRO&KHP±  (,6(167(,1 56  ,URQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQV DQG WKH PROHFXODU FRQWURO RI PDPPDOLDQLURQPHWDEROLVP$QQX5HY1XWU±  3$172328/26 .  0: +(17=(  1LWULF R[LGH R[\JHQ UDGLFDOV DQG LURQ PHWDEROLVP,Q1LWULF2[LGHSS±$FDGHPLF3UHVV6DQ'LHJR  &$,52 *  $ 3,(75$1*(/2  ,URQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQV LQ SDWKRELRORJ\ %LRFKHP-±  528$8/77$3RVWWUDQVFULSWLRQDOUHJXODWLRQRIKXPDQLURQPHWDEROLVPE\LURQ UHJXODWRU\SURWHLQV%ORRG&HOOV0RO'LV±  .,0+<5'./$861(5 7$528$8/77UDQVODWLRQDOUHSUHVVRUDFWLYLW\LV HTXLYDOHQW DQG LV TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ SUHGLFWHG E\ LQ YLWUR 51$ ELQGLQJ IRU WZR LURQ UHVSRQVLYHHOHPHQW±ELQGLQJSURWHLQV,53DQG,53-%LRO&KHP±  (5/,7=., 5 -& /21*  (& 7+(,/  0XOWLSOH FRQVHUYHG LURQUHVSRQVLYH HOHPHQWVLQWKH′XQWUDQVODWHGUHJLRQRIWUDQVIHUULQUHFHSWRUP51$HQKDQFHELQGLQJ RILURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ-%LRO&KHP±  5(&$/&$7, 6 HW DO  1LWULF R[LGH±PHGLDWHG LQGXFWLRQ RI IHUULWLQ V\QWKHVLV LQ - PDFURSKDJHV E\ LQIODPPDWRU\ F\WRNLQHV UROH RI VHOHFWLYH LURQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQGRZQUHJXODWLRQ%ORRG±  .,06 3321.$&RQWURORIWUDQVIHUULQUHFHSWRUH[SUHVVLRQYLDQLWULFR[LGH± PHGLDWHGPRGXODWLRQRILURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ-%LRO&KHP±  .,06 3321.$1LWURJHQPRQR[LGH±PHGLDWHGFRQWURORIIHUULWLQV\QWKHVLV LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU PDFURSKDJH LURQ KRPHRVWDVLV 3URF 1DWO $FDG 6FL 86$  ±  '(58662 3$ HW DO  ([SUHVVLRQ RI D FRQVWLWXWLYH PXWDQW RI LURQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQ  DEROLVKHV LURQ KRPHRVWDVLV LQ PDPPDOLDQ FHOOV - %LRO &KHP  ±  $11$/61(:<25.$&$'(0<2)6&,(1&(6  :$1*- .3$172328/26&RQGLWLRQDOGHUHSUHVVLRQRIIHUULWLQV\QWKHVLVLQ FHOOVH[SUHVVLQJDFRQVWLWXWLYH,53PXWDQW0RO&HOO%LRO±  /$9$87( 7 HW DO  7DUJHWHG GHOHWLRQ RI WKH JHQH HQFRGLQJ LURQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQFDXVHVPLVUHJXODWLRQRILURQPHWDEROLVPDQGQHXURGHJHQHUDWLYHGLVHDVHLQ PLFH1DW*HQHW±  528$8/77$,URQRQWKHEUDLQ1DW*HQHW±  &857,6 $5 HW DO  0XWDWLRQ LQ WKH JHQH HQFRGLQJ IHUULWLQ OLJKW SRO\SHSWLGH FDXVHVGRPLQDQWDGXOWRQVHWEDVDOJDQJOLDGLVHDVH1DW*HQHW±  +$,/( '- HW DO  &HOOXODU UHJXODWLRQ RI WKH LURQUHVSRQVLYH HOHPHQW ELQGLQJ SURWHLQ GLVDVVHPEO\ RI WKH FXEDQH LURQVXOIXU FOXVWHU UHVXOWV LQ KLJKDIILQLW\ 51$ ELQGLQJ3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$±  +$,/('-HWDO5HFLSURFDOFRQWURORI51$ELQGLQJDQGDFRQLWDVHDFWLYLW\LQ WKHUHJXODWLRQRIWKHLURQUHVSRQVLYHHOHPHQWELQGLQJSURWHLQUROHRIWKHLURQVXOIXU FOXVWHU3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$±  .(11('< 0& HW DO  3XULILFDWLRQ DQG FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI F\WRVROLF DFRQLWDVH IURP EHHI OLYHU DQG LWV UHODWLRQVKLS WR WKH LURQUHVSRQVLYH HOHPHQW ELQGLQJ SURWHLQ 3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$±  %5$==2/2772;HWDO+XPDQF\WRSODVPLFDFRQLWDVH LURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ LVFRQYHUWHGLQWRLWV>)H6@IRUPE\K\GURJHQSHUR[LGHLQYLWUREXWLVQRWDFWLYDWHG IRULURQUHVSRQVLYHHOHPHQWELQGLQJ-%LRO&KHP±  1$5$+$5,-HWDO7KHDFRQLWDVHIXQFWLRQRILURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQJHQHWLF VWXGLHVLQ\HDVWLPSOLFDWHLWVUROHLQLURQPHGLDWHGUHGR[UHJXODWLRQ-%LRO&KHP ±  3$172328/26.*:(,66 0:+(17=(1LWULFR[LGHDQGR[LGDWLYHVWUHVV +2 FRQWUROPDPPDOLDQLURQPHWDEROLVPE\GLIIHUHQWSDWKZD\V0RO&HOO%LRO ±  *(*2879HWDO/LJDQGLQGXFHGVWUXFWXUDODOWHUDWLRQVLQKXPDQLURQUHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQUHYHDOHGE\SURWHLQIRRWSULQWLQJ-%LRO&KHP±  %5$==2/2772;HWDO6WUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKVZLWFKLQJDFWLYLWLHV RIWKHKXPDQLURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ-%LRO&KHP±  %52:1 10 HW DO  1RYHO UROH RI SKRVSKRU\ODWLRQ LQ )H6 FOXVWHU VWDELOLW\ UHYHDOHGE\SKRVSKRPLPHWLFPXWDWLRQVDW6HURILURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ3URF 1DWO$FDG6FL86$±  ),//(%((1&HWDO$SKRVSKRPLPHWLFPXWDWLRQDW6HUUHQGHUVLURQUHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQVHQVLWLYHWRLURQGHSHQGHQWGHJUDGDWLRQ0RO&HOO%LRO±  &$,52 * HW DO  7KH LURQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQV WDUJHWV DQG PRGXODWRUV RI IUHH UDGLFDOUHDFWLRQVDQGR[LGDWLYHGDPDJH)UHH5DGLFDO%LRO0HG±  *(+5,1*10:+(17=( .3$172328/260HQDGLRQHLQGXFHGR[LGDWLYH VWUHVV OHDGV WR LQDFWLYDWLRQ RI ERWK 51$ELQGLQJ DQG DFRQLWDVH DFWLYLWLHV RI LURQ UHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ-%LRO&KHP±  .(11('< 0& :( $17+2/,1(  + %(,1(57  $Q (35 LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH SURGXFWVRIWKHUHDFWLRQRIF\WRVROLFDQGPLWRFKRQGULDODFRQLWDVHVZLWKQLWULFR[LGH -%LRO&KHP±  6280 ( HW DO  3HUR[\QLWULWH DQG QLWULF R[LGH GLIIHUHQWO\ WDUJHW WKH LURQVXOIXU FOXVWHUDQGDPLQRDFLGUHVLGXHVRIKXPDQLURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ%LRFKHPLVWU\ ±  3$172328/26. 0:+(17=(5DSLGUHVSRQVHVWRR[LGDWLYHVWUHVVPHGLDWHG E\LURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ(0%2-±  0$57,16 ($/ 5/ 52%$/,1+2  5 0(1(*+,1,  2[LGDWLYH VWUHVV LQGXFHV DFWLYDWLRQ RI D F\WRVROLF SURWHLQ UHVSRQVLEOH IRU FRQWURO RI LURQ XSWDNH $UFK %LRFKHP%LRSK\V±  3$172328/26 .  0: +(17=(  $FWLYDWLRQ RI LURQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQ E\ R[LGDWLYHVWUHVVLQYLWUR3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$±  '5$3,(5-&HWDO%LRV\QWKHVLVRIQLWULFR[LGHDFWLYDWHVLURQUHJXODWRU\IDFWRU LQPDFURSKDJHV(0%2-±  :$5'5236/51:$776 '55,&+$5'6211LWURJHQPRQR[LGHDFWLYDWHV LURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ51$ELQGLQJDFWLYLW\E\WZRSRVVLEOHPHFKDQLVPVHIIHFW RQWKH>)H6@FOXVWHUDQGLURQPRELOL]DWLRQIURPFHOOV%LRFKHPLVWU\± 3$172328/26,5(,535(*8/$725<6<67(0   ),//(%((1 &  . 3$172328/26  5HGR[ FRQWURO RI LURQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQV 5HGR[5HS±  :(,66*,URQDQGDQHPLDRIFKURQLFGLVHDVH.LGQH\,QW6XSSO6±6  0h7=( 6 HW DO  0\HORSHUR[LGDVHGHULYHG K\SRFKORURXV DFLG DQWDJRQL]HV WKH R[LGDWLYHVWUHVV±PHGLDWHGDFWLYDWLRQRILURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ-%LRO&KHP,Q SUHVV  +(1'(5621 %5  /& .h+1  'LIIHUHQWLDO PRGXODWLRQ RI WKH 51$ELQGLQJ SURWHLQV,53DQG,53LQUHVSRQVHWRLURQ,53LQDFWLYDWLRQUHTXLUHVWUDQVODWLRQRI DQRWKHUSURWHLQ-%LRO&KHP±  +$1621 (6 /0 )227  ($ /(,%2/'  +\SR[LD SRVWWUDQVODWLRQDOO\ DFWLYDWHVLURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ-%LRO&KHP±  *82 % HW DO  ,URQ UHJXODWHV WKH LQWUDFHOOXODU GHJUDGDWLRQ RI LURQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQE\WKHSURWHDVRPH-%LRO&KHP±  ,:$, . 5' ./$861(5  7$ 528$8/7  5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU LURQUHJXODWHG GHJUDGDWLRQ RI WKH 51$ ELQGLQJ SURWHLQ LURQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQ  (0%2 -  ±  ,:$,.HWDO,URQGHSHQGHQWR[LGDWLRQXELTXLWLQDWLRQDQGGHJUDGDWLRQRILURQ UHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQ  LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU GHJUDGDWLRQ RI R[LGL]HG SURWHLQV 3URF 1DWO $FDG6FL86$±  .$1* '. HW DO  ,URQUHJXODWRU\ SURWHLQ  DV LURQ VHQVRU LURQGHSHQGHQW R[LGDWLYHPRGLILFDWLRQRIF\VWHLQH-%LRO&KHP±  <$0$1$.$.HWDO,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHXELTXLWLQSURWHLQOLJDVHWKDWUHFRJQL]HV R[LGL]HG,531DW&HOO%LRO±  *2(66/,1* /6 '3 0$6&277,  5( 7+$&+  ,QYROYHPHQW RI KHPH LQ WKH GHJUDGDWLRQRILURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ-%LRO&KHP±  :$1* - HW DO  ,URQPHGLDWHG GHJUDGDWLRQ RI ,53 DQ XQH[SHFWHG SDWKZD\ LQYROYLQJDR[RJOXWDUDWHGHSHQGHQWR[\JHQDVHDFWLYLW\0RO&HOO%LRO±  +$1621 (6 0/ 5$:/,16  ($ /(,%2/'  2[\JHQ DQG LURQ UHJXODWLRQ RI LURQUHJXODWRU\SURWHLQ-%LRO&KHP±  6&+2),(/'&- ==+$1*6WUXFWXUDODQGPHFKDQLVWLFVWXGLHVRQR[RJOXWDUDWH GHSHQGHQWR[\JHQDVHVDQGUHODWHGHQ]\PHV&XUU2SLQ6WUXFW%LRO±  %58,&.5. 6/0&.1,*+7$FRQVHUYHGIDPLO\RISURO\OK\GUR[\ODVHV WKDWPRGLI\+,)6FLHQFH±  (367(,1$&HWDO&HOHJDQV(*/DQGPDPPDOLDQKRPRORJVGHILQHDIDPLO\ RIGLR[\JHQDVHVWKDWUHJXODWH+,)E\SURO\OK\GUR[\ODWLRQ&HOO±  ,9$1 0 HW DO  +,)DOSKD WDUJHWHG IRU 9+/PHGLDWHG GHVWUXFWLRQ E\ SUROLQH K\GUR[\ODWLRQLPSOLFDWLRQVIRU2VHQVLQJ6FLHQFH±  -$$..2/$3HWDO7DUJHWLQJRI+,)DOSKDWRWKHYRQ+LSSHO±/LQGDXXELTXLW\ODWLRQ FRPSOH[E\2UHJXODWHGSURO\OK\GUR[\ODWLRQ6FLHQFH±  0$66211HWDO,QGHSHQGHQWIXQFWLRQRIWZRGHVWUXFWLRQGRPDLQVLQK\SR[LD LQGXFLEOH IDFWRUDOSKD FKDLQV DFWLYDWHG E\ SURO\O K\GUR[\ODWLRQ (0%2 -  ±