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American Journal of ISSN 0002-9262 EPIDEMIOLOGY Volume 136 Published by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health Number 6 Sponsored by the Society for Epidemiologic Research September 15, 1992 ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS 623 633 646 657 662 673 686 698 712 722 730 742 760 Preexisting Lung Disease and Lung Cancer among Nonsmoking Women. Michael C. R. Alavanja, Ross C. Brownson, John D. Boice, Jr., and Ed Hock Longitudinal Prediction of Adult Blood Pressure from Juvenile Blood Pressure Levels. Mary J. Nelson, David R. Ragland, and S. Leonard Syme Mortality Trends in a Cohort of Homosexual Men in New York City, 1978-1988. Beryl A. Koblin, John M. Morrison, Patricia E. Taylor, Rand L. Stoneburner, and Cladd E. Stevens Characteristics of Mothers of Live Infants with Congenital Syphilis in Florida, 19871989. Jean-Claude A. Desenclos, Michael Scaggs, and Jack E. Wroten Comparative Behavioral Epidemiology of Gonococcal and Chlamydial Infections among Patients Attending a Baltimore, Maryland, Sexually Transmitted Disease Clinic. Edward W. Hook III, Cindy A. Reichart, Dawn M. Upchurch, Phyllis Ray, David Celentano, and Thomas C. Quinn Behavioral Risk Factors for Injury among Rural Adolescents. Cheryl S. Alexander, Margaret E. Ensminger, Mark R. Somerfield, Young J. Kim, and Karin E. Johnson Weight Loss and Mortality in a National Cohort of Adults, 1971-1987. Elsie R. Pamuk, David F. Williamson, Jennifer Madans, Mary K. Serdula, Joel C. Kleinman, and Tim Byers Performance of Two General Job-Exposure Matrices in a Study of Lung Cancer Morbidity in the Zutphen Cohort. Hans Kromhout, Dick Heederik, Louise M. Dalderup, and Daan Kromhout Proxy Respondents and the Validity of Occupational and Other Exposure Data. Coleen A. Boyle, Edward A. Brann, and the Selected Cancers Cooperative Study Group Computation of Relative Risk Based on Simultaneous Surveys: An Alternative to Cohort and Case-Control Studies. James J. Weinkam, Wilfred L. Rosenbaum, and Theodor D. Sterling The Analysis of Regional Patterns in Health Data. I. Distributional Considerations. S 0. Walter The Analysis of Regional Patterns in Health Data. II. The Power to Detect Environmental Effects. S. D. Walter BOOK REVIEWS LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 766 Re: "Repeat Measurement of Case-Control Data: Correcting Risk Estimates for Misclassification Due to Regression Dilution of Lipids in Transient Ischemic Attacks and Minor Ischemic Strokes." Hermann Brenner Continued on Inside Front Cover Founded 1920 by W. H. Welch and W. H. Howell as the American Journal of Hygiene Contents Continued from Front Cover 767 Re: "Very Low Birth Weight: A Problematic Cohort for Epidemiologic Studies of Very Small or Immature Neonates." Nigel Paneth 767 The First Author Replies. Cody Arnold EGRET State-of-the-Art Epidemiological Computing FEATURES • Intuitive, Screen-Onented User Interface • Context-Sensitive Help • Runs on DOS Micros ANALYSIS MODELS • Logistic Regression • Cox Proportional Hazards Regression with Time-Dependent Covanates • Conditional Logistic Regression • Poisson Regression • Logistic Regression with Random Effects • Exponential and Weibull Regression • Kaplan-Meier • Fast, Exact Contingency Table Analysis GRAPHICS* tea i2e lie l«m.llJiWJHI " Graphics option /s separately priced CALL OR WRITE FOR BROCHURE: ,;- (NOTE NEW ADDRESS!) Statistics and Epidemiology Research Corporation *' 909 NE 43rd Street, Suite 202 Telephone +(206)632-3014 Seattle, Washington 98105 Fax +(206)547-4671 Device-Independent Graphics On-line or Off-line Plotting Scatter Plots Kaplan-Meier and Cox Survival Plots Delta Beta and Fitted Value Plots Annotate Plots with Lines, Text and Movable Legend The Society for Epidemiologic Research The Society for Epidemiologic Research (SER) is committed to the development and application of epidemiologic methods. The Annual Meeting provides a forum for presentations and informal exchange among SER members, primarily from the United States and Canada. SER is a sponsor of the American Journal of Epidemiology and Epidemiologic Reviews, among the most well-respected and widely cited journals in public health. MEMBERSHIP IN THE SER INCLUDES: k• Subscription to the American Journal of Epidemiology (24 issues) * Subscription to Epidemiologic Reviews (membership benefit added in 1992!) * Newsletters that include abstract forms and instructions for presenting papers at the annual meeting, notification of fellowships, and information on Society activities * Mailings describing conferences, journals, and recently published books of interest to epidemiologists * SER Directory of members with names, addresses, and telephone numbers Society for Epidemiologic Research Membership Membership includes subscription to the American Journal of Epidemiology and Epidemiologic Reviews (annual volume). The Journal is published twice a month, January-December. • • Regular Domestic Student Domestic $80.00 $55.00 • • Regular Foreign Student Foreign $85.00 $60.00 Note: Memberships are on a calendar year basis, January-December. Memberships received after July 1 will be accepted for the following year. Students need to provide verification of status (name of university attended and signature of administrative or faculty member). NAME ADDRESS TELEPHONE NO • Check • FAX NO.. VISA/MASTERCARD (include account no., signature, and expiration date): Send dues payment to: Society for Epidemiologic Research, P.O. Box 64655, Baltimore, MD 212644655, USA. Direct other Society correspondence to: Dr. Lorann Stallones, Dept. of Environmental Health, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO 80523, USA. American Journal of Founded 1920 by W. H. Welch and EPIDEMIOLOGY BOARD OF OVERSEERS ALFRED SOMMER, Chairman LOUISE A. BRINTON LEON GORDIS CHARLES H. HENNEKENS ALLYN W. KIMBALL W. HENRY MOSLEY NOEL R. ROSE MOYSES SZKLO, W. H. Howell as the American Journal of Hygiene TECHNICAL EDITORS BOARD OF EDITORS ADRIAN M. OSTFELD, SANDRA L. BRYANT JANET M. MCNAUGHTON SUSAN G. MURRAY AMY W. REDMON Editor Emeritus Editor-in-Chief GEORGE W. COMSTOCK, Editor-in-Chief Emeritus HAROUTUNE K. ARMENIAN TERRI H. BEATY PETER BURNEY TOM D. Y. CHIN JANET R. DALINC. C. E. DAVIS ALLAN DONNER FRED EDERER GARY D. FRIEDMAN MARY MONK DIANA B. PETITTI JONATHAN M. SAMET W. EUGENE SANDERS, JR. DAVID A. SAVITZ MEIR J. STAMPFER DAVID B. THOMAS STEPHEN D. WALTER ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANT HARRIETT TELLJOHANN ADMINISTRATIVE SECRETARIES ANN TEN EYCK DUNBAR SHAWNISE F. SMITH MANAGING EDITOR EARLE V. HART, JR. SUBSCRIPTION MANAGER ASSOCIATE MANAGING EDITOR SANDRA ADAMS CHRISTOPHER T GEORGE ASSOCIATE EDITORS ANDERS AHLBOM, Stockholm, Sweden JORDI ALONSO, Barcelona, Spain JOSEP M. ANT6, Barcelona, Spain BEN ARMSTRONG, Montreal, Canada PETER H. BENNETT, Phoenix, AZ ROBERTO BERTOLLINI, Rome, Italy AARON BLAIR, Bethesda, MD STEVEN N. BLAIR, Dallas, TX MARTIN J. BLASER, Nashuille, TN ERIC BOERWINKLE, Houston, TX PHILIP S. BRACHMAN, Atlanta, GA LOUISE A. BRINTON, Bethesda, MD SHELLEY B. BULL, Toronto, ON, Canada GARY A. CHASE, Baltimore, MD HARVEY CHECKOWAY, Seattle, WA GRAHAM A. COLDITZ, Boston, MA JAMES W. CURRAN, Atlanta, GA A. MICHAEL DAVIES, Jerusalem, Israel ALAN R. DYER, Chicago, IL PHILIP E. ENTERLINE, Pittsburgh, PA MANNING FEINLEIB, Bethesda, MD W. DANA FLANDERS, Atlanta, GA AARON FOLSOM, Minneapolis, MN LINDA P. FRIED, Baltimore, MD PETER J. GERGEN, Hyattsville, MD W. PAUL GLEZEN, Houston, TX ROBERT J. GOLDBERG, Worcester, MA MARC T. GOODMAN, Honolulu, HI SAXON GRAHAM, Buffalo, NY RAYMOND S. GREENBERG, Atlanta, GA SANDER GREENLAND, LOS Angeles, CA STEPHEN C. HADLER, Atlanta, GA ROBERT W. HALEY, Dallas, TX M. ELIZABETH HALLORAN, Atlanta, GA JEAN H. HANKIN, Honolulu, HI ROBERT A. HIATT, Oakland, CA THEODORE R. HOLFORD, New Haven, CT WALTER W. HOLLAND, London, England DONALD R. HOOVER, Baltimore, MD HAROLD W. JAFFE, Atlanta, GA ULRICH KEIL, Bochum, Germany MUIN J. KHOURY, Atlanta, GA ALLYN W. KIMBALL, Baltimore, MD LAURENCE N. KOLONEL, Honolulu, HI LEWIS KULLER, Pittsburgh, PA CARLO LA VECCHIA, Milan, Italy FRANK E. LUNDIN, Rockville, MD JACK S. MANDEL, Minneapolis, MN JAMES R. MARSHALL, Buffalo, NY JAMES E. MAYNARD, Atlanta, GA JOSEPH K. MCLAUGHLIN, Bethesda, MD L. JOSEPH MELTON, III, Rochester, MN DAVID L. MILLER, London, England PATRICIA P. MOLL, Ann Arbor, MI ARNOLD S. MONTO, Ann Arbor, MI HAL MORGENSTERN, LOS Angeles, CA EVE K. MOSCICKI, Rockville, MD JAMES W. MOSLEY, ios Angeles, CA NANCY ELSA MUELLER, Boston, MA C. S. Mum, Lyon, France KENRAD E. NELSON, Baltimore, MD F. JAVIER NIETO, Baltimore, MD ABRAHAM M. Y. NOMURA, Honolulu, HI RALPH S. PAFFENBARGER, JR., Stanford, CA PAOLO PASQUINI, Rome, Italy N E I L PEARCE, Wellington, New Zealand MARVIN J. PODGOR, Bethesda, MD CHARLES POOLE, Cambridge, MA Ross PRENTICE, Seattle, WA WILLIAM C. REEVES, Atlanta, GA ARTHUR L. REINGOLD, Berkeley, CA JAMES M. ROBINS, Boston, MA ELAINE RON, Bethesda, MD LYNN ROSENBERG, Brookline, MA BERNARD ROSNER, Boston, MA JUKKA T. SALONEN, Kuopio, Finland DALE P. SANDLER, Research Triangle Park, NC RODOLFO SARACCI, Lyon, France WILLIAM SCHAFFNER, Nashville, TN MARK H. SCHIFFMAN, Bethesda, MD WILLIAM J. SCHULL, Houston, TX CHRISTOPHER T. SEMPOS, Hyattsville, MD A. RICHEY SHARRETT, Bethesda, MD RICHARD B. SHEKELLE, Houston, TX STEPHEN SIDNEY, Oakland, CA JACK SIEMIATYCKI, Laval, QU, Canada DAVID SISCOVICK, Seattle, WA PAUL D. SORLIE, Bethesda, MD J. MICHAEL SPRAFKA, Minneapolis, MN JANET L. STANFORD, Seattle, WA CLADD E. STEVENS, New York, NY JAMES M. TIELSCH, Baltimore, MD HERMAN A. TYROLER, Chapel Hill, NC CESAR VICTORA, Pelotas, Brazil ROBERT B. WALLACE, Iowa City, IA ALLEN J. WILCOX, Research Triangle Park, NC WALTER WILLETT, Boston, MA WARREN WINKELSTEIN, JR., Berkeley, CA ROBERT F. WOOLSON, Iowa City, IA AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY (ISSN 0002-9262) is published twice monthly for $190.00 (Domestic) and $198.00 (Foreign) per year by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205. Second-class postage paid at Baltimore, MD, and additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to: AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 2007 E. Monument St., Baltimore, MD 21205-2216. Sponsored by the Society for Epidemiologic Research. Supported in part by a bequest from the DeLamar Fund. Editorial Office telephone no.: 410-955-3441; fax: 410-9550344. Printed by Waverly Press, 1314 Guilford Ave., Baltimore, MD 21202-3995.