In this paper, we demonstrate that approximately a fourth of the annual variability in anthropoge... more In this paper, we demonstrate that approximately a fourth of the annual variability in anthropogenic lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice cores can be explained by a small set of variables derived from paleoclimatic data, archaeological evidence, and historical records. We argue that these variables are likely correlated with the economic performance of the Early Roman Empire. On the one hand, we provide formal statistical support for the hypothesis that lead pollution contains valuable information about the level of economic activity in Western Europe during ancient times, thereby corroborating a debated claim in the literature. On the other hand, by examining the relationships between summer temperatures, coin output, and wartime periods with income dynamics, we enhance our understanding of how these factors were correlated with economic fluctuations. Our results suggest that warmer summers, which likely boosted agricultural surplus, positively correlated with economic activity, while increased silver coin output and wartime periods were associated with economic slowdowns. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential of integrating high-resolution paleoclimatic and cliometric data to deepen our understanding of the economic dynamics of ancient societies.
In this paper, we demonstrate that approximately a fourth of the annual variability in anthropoge... more In this paper, we demonstrate that approximately a fourth of the annual variability in anthropogenic lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice cores can be explained by a small set of variables derived from paleoclimatic data, archaeological evidence, and historical records. We argue that these variables are likely correlated with the economic performance of the Early Roman Empire. On the one hand, we provide formal statistical support for the hypothesis that lead pollution contains valuable information about the level of economic activity in Western Europe during ancient times, thereby corroborating a debated claim in the literature. On the other hand, by examining the relationships between summer temperatures, coin output,and wartime periods with income dynamics, we enhance our understanding of how these factors were correlated with economic fluctuations. Our results suggest that warmer summers, which likely boosted agricultural surplus, positively correlated with economic activity, while increased silver coin output and wartime periods were associated with economic slowdowns. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential of integrating high-resolution paleoclimatic and cliometric data to deepen our understanding of the economic dynamics of ancient societies.
La memoria del Comune nella cultura italiana di Età moderna tra erudizione e reinvenzione, a cura di S. Gardini, V. Ruzzin, 2024
The article aims to analyze the connections between urbanization and economic development in the ... more The article aims to analyze the connections between urbanization and economic development in the pre-industrial world. To this end, a novel dataset on urbanization and population in the Republic of Genoa in the period 1300-1800 was constructed. The ‘depth’ of the dataset, which spans five centuries of urban and population development, makes it possible to examine otherwise invisible long-term dynamics. This analysis reveals how the urban and economic development of preindustrial Liguria follows a trajectory that starts from the almost unchallenged dominance of the ‘city-state’ Genoa and ends with the emergence of a moderately polycentric system composed of twelve urban centers. This gradual loosening of Genoese hegemony over the Ligurian territory can be decoded as the necessary condition for the territories of the former Republic of Genoa to enter the era of modern economic growth.
This paper critically examines the traditional perspectives on ancient economic growth, specifica... more This paper critically examines the traditional perspectives on ancient economic growth, specifically the Malthusian and Smithian viewpoints, which emerged within the framework of Neo Institutional Economics (NIE). By delving into recent literature, the study highlights the limitations of these perspectives in providing a comprehensive understanding of macroeconomic dynamics and empirical evidence in the context of the Roman Empire. The paper argues that sustained economic growth in ancient Rome can be attributed to a hybrid model, combining predatory actions resulting from military conquests and long-term selfsustaining strategies centered around market mechanisms. These findings challenge the predictive power of the NIE approach in accurately capturing the complexities of ancient economic growth.
Annali della Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. Fondazione Luigi Einaudi , 2022
This paper quantitatively analyses the role of transaction costs in Northern vessels' operating e... more This paper quantitatively analyses the role of transaction costs in Northern vessels' operating expenses versus their Mediterranean competitors between 1590 and 1616. It is based on an understudied risk-sharing institution, General Average (GA), and on data extrapolated from the AveTransRisk database and unpublished archival sources. We apply a Structural Vector Autoregression Model (SVAR) analysis by considering the Northern Invasion phenomenon as a series of structural shocks on Mediterranean seaborne trade. The SVAR model will test how the greater reliability of Northern vessels, constantly highlighted by the literature on the Northern Invasion, impacted on the repartition of damages following a GA, considered as a proxy of transaction costs. Results support the interpretation according to whom the transaction costs played a relevant role in the persistency of the Northern Invasion in the Mediterranean Sea.
The paper focuses on the Antonine-Plague’s consequences from an economic-political and philosophi... more The paper focuses on the Antonine-Plague’s consequences from an economic-political and philosophical-cultural perspective. Exploiting analogies with the Malthusian model used to interpret the wage growth of the post-Black Death of the fourteenth century, the authors underline how the measures implemented by Roman institutions jointly with the degree of technological diffusion may have contained the effects of a probable scarcity of workforce caused by the epidemic. The analysis suggests that the institutions and technological diffusion may have acted as a “brake” both to the Malthusian dynamic and to the workers claims for higher real wage, preventing a “break point” in the economic-political fabric comparable to that caused by the Black Death. On the contrary, it seems more reasonable to suppose a principle for a revolution in the philosophical-cultural sphere. In the light of sociological studies, the authors analyse the practices adopted by both Christian and Pagan communities to combat the Antonine-Plague’s mortality. The capacity of the Christian community to provide more effective responses than Pagan one during the epidemic could have been one of the key factors for the success of this philosophy in the following centuries. The paper concludes with a section that compares, using all possible precautions, the Antonine Plague with nowadays Coronavirus pandemic.
This paper investigates the relationships between urbanization and long-term economic growth in t... more This paper investigates the relationships between urbanization and long-term economic growth in the pre-industrial world. To this end, we compiled a novel dataset collecting all currently available data on urban and rural populations in an Italian pre-unification state, the Republic of Genoa. Data show the paradoxical coexistence of high urbanization levels with cyclical Malthusian stagnations. Putting together empirical results and historical evidence, we interpreted this puzzle, highlighting how a high degree of urbanization could be the consequence of widespread poverty, rather than a measure of rising standards of living. To describe this phenomenon, we coined the term “Malthusian urbanization”.
Reviewed Work(s): Capital, Investment and Innovation in the Roman World by Paul Erdkamp, Koenraad... more Reviewed Work(s): Capital, Investment and Innovation in the Roman World by Paul Erdkamp, Koenraad Verboven and Arjan Zuiderhoek
This paper evaluates competing approaches to assess the effectiveness of transmission channels fo... more This paper evaluates competing approaches to assess the effectiveness of transmission channels for the U.S. monetary policy from 1°Q 1995 to 3°Q 2019. While evaluating the competing approaches, the paper follows wavelet coherence approach providing results in time and frequency domain. The results show how money and credit channels work quite well during low volatile periods generally, whereas they suggest that these channels are less effective during periods of financial turmoil and very low interest rate. However, investment-based channels and the bank-lending channel revisited version show some effects also during periods of instability. In more detail, investment-based channels and the bank-lending channel revisited appear to be the most effective monetary policy transmission mechanisms, while the traditional banking-lending channel seems effective only in low volatile periods. Finally, the results for consumption-based channels and international trade-based channels show the least effectiveness.
This paper aims to evaluate validity of Bank-Lending Channel Revisited theory (BLCR) within a mac... more This paper aims to evaluate validity of Bank-Lending Channel Revisited theory (BLCR) within a macroeconomic framework extended for diversified credit demand. The extension of BLCR model (EBLCR) relaxed assumption of credit cycle as a function of bank lending rate and enabled a more comprehensive analysis of demand for credit. In order to include a diversified credit demand in the original BLCR model, we put an alternative financing source in addition to the bank lending; the commercial papers market. This extension seems to undermine the main conclusions provided by BLCR; banks financing cost is not the only relevant variable in driving credit cycle. Specifically, bank lending and commercial papers may become “close” substitutes following monetary policy and aggregate demand shock, reducing the relevance of bank lending in whole credit market. In order to develop this reasoning; we have looked at U.S economy during the period 1°Q 1980 - 1°Q 2020 through a time-varying non-parametric VAR model.
In the last two decades, an increasing amount of papyrological findings have begun to shed more l... more In the last two decades, an increasing amount of papyrological findings have begun to shed more light on the demographic and economic consequences of the Antonine Plague in Roman Egypt. However, both results and conclusions on this subject remain quite controversial. This paper reinterprets the Antonine Plague's effects on Roman Egypt within the larger fiscal crisis triggered by simultaneous military aggressions at the borders of the Empire. Adopting such a framework sheds light on emerging distorted incentives in land management, which apparently pushed imperial authorities and large landowners to adopt extra-economic measures to stem falling rents, at the expense of tenants, coloni, and workers. Roman Egypt's reaction to the epidemic seems to have been quite different from the reaction of Western Europe to the Black Death many centuries later. Roman Egypt took the first step toward the serfdom system.
Did long-distance trade in the Roman world operate on a sufficiently big scale to increase the ov... more Did long-distance trade in the Roman world operate on a sufficiently big scale to increase the overall size of markets, enabling specialization of labor and thus Smithian growth? Although the Malthusian model represents the dominant view to describe the economic performance of the ancient world, economic theory suggests that the Smithian model could produce a kind of endogenous growth through market integration generated by the amount of trade, independently of the level of innovation. This investigation questions the possibility that, even in ancient times, a high capacity for specialization of labor due to an extensive and integrated market was able to stimulate a basic form of sustained economic growth.
In this paper, we demonstrate that approximately a fourth of the annual variability in anthropoge... more In this paper, we demonstrate that approximately a fourth of the annual variability in anthropogenic lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice cores can be explained by a small set of variables derived from paleoclimatic data, archaeological evidence, and historical records. We argue that these variables are likely correlated with the economic performance of the Early Roman Empire. On the one hand, we provide formal statistical support for the hypothesis that lead pollution contains valuable information about the level of economic activity in Western Europe during ancient times, thereby corroborating a debated claim in the literature. On the other hand, by examining the relationships between summer temperatures, coin output, and wartime periods with income dynamics, we enhance our understanding of how these factors were correlated with economic fluctuations. Our results suggest that warmer summers, which likely boosted agricultural surplus, positively correlated with economic activity, while increased silver coin output and wartime periods were associated with economic slowdowns. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential of integrating high-resolution paleoclimatic and cliometric data to deepen our understanding of the economic dynamics of ancient societies.
In this paper, we demonstrate that approximately a fourth of the annual variability in anthropoge... more In this paper, we demonstrate that approximately a fourth of the annual variability in anthropogenic lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice cores can be explained by a small set of variables derived from paleoclimatic data, archaeological evidence, and historical records. We argue that these variables are likely correlated with the economic performance of the Early Roman Empire. On the one hand, we provide formal statistical support for the hypothesis that lead pollution contains valuable information about the level of economic activity in Western Europe during ancient times, thereby corroborating a debated claim in the literature. On the other hand, by examining the relationships between summer temperatures, coin output,and wartime periods with income dynamics, we enhance our understanding of how these factors were correlated with economic fluctuations. Our results suggest that warmer summers, which likely boosted agricultural surplus, positively correlated with economic activity, while increased silver coin output and wartime periods were associated with economic slowdowns. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential of integrating high-resolution paleoclimatic and cliometric data to deepen our understanding of the economic dynamics of ancient societies.
La memoria del Comune nella cultura italiana di Età moderna tra erudizione e reinvenzione, a cura di S. Gardini, V. Ruzzin, 2024
The article aims to analyze the connections between urbanization and economic development in the ... more The article aims to analyze the connections between urbanization and economic development in the pre-industrial world. To this end, a novel dataset on urbanization and population in the Republic of Genoa in the period 1300-1800 was constructed. The ‘depth’ of the dataset, which spans five centuries of urban and population development, makes it possible to examine otherwise invisible long-term dynamics. This analysis reveals how the urban and economic development of preindustrial Liguria follows a trajectory that starts from the almost unchallenged dominance of the ‘city-state’ Genoa and ends with the emergence of a moderately polycentric system composed of twelve urban centers. This gradual loosening of Genoese hegemony over the Ligurian territory can be decoded as the necessary condition for the territories of the former Republic of Genoa to enter the era of modern economic growth.
This paper critically examines the traditional perspectives on ancient economic growth, specifica... more This paper critically examines the traditional perspectives on ancient economic growth, specifically the Malthusian and Smithian viewpoints, which emerged within the framework of Neo Institutional Economics (NIE). By delving into recent literature, the study highlights the limitations of these perspectives in providing a comprehensive understanding of macroeconomic dynamics and empirical evidence in the context of the Roman Empire. The paper argues that sustained economic growth in ancient Rome can be attributed to a hybrid model, combining predatory actions resulting from military conquests and long-term selfsustaining strategies centered around market mechanisms. These findings challenge the predictive power of the NIE approach in accurately capturing the complexities of ancient economic growth.
Annali della Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. Fondazione Luigi Einaudi , 2022
This paper quantitatively analyses the role of transaction costs in Northern vessels' operating e... more This paper quantitatively analyses the role of transaction costs in Northern vessels' operating expenses versus their Mediterranean competitors between 1590 and 1616. It is based on an understudied risk-sharing institution, General Average (GA), and on data extrapolated from the AveTransRisk database and unpublished archival sources. We apply a Structural Vector Autoregression Model (SVAR) analysis by considering the Northern Invasion phenomenon as a series of structural shocks on Mediterranean seaborne trade. The SVAR model will test how the greater reliability of Northern vessels, constantly highlighted by the literature on the Northern Invasion, impacted on the repartition of damages following a GA, considered as a proxy of transaction costs. Results support the interpretation according to whom the transaction costs played a relevant role in the persistency of the Northern Invasion in the Mediterranean Sea.
The paper focuses on the Antonine-Plague’s consequences from an economic-political and philosophi... more The paper focuses on the Antonine-Plague’s consequences from an economic-political and philosophical-cultural perspective. Exploiting analogies with the Malthusian model used to interpret the wage growth of the post-Black Death of the fourteenth century, the authors underline how the measures implemented by Roman institutions jointly with the degree of technological diffusion may have contained the effects of a probable scarcity of workforce caused by the epidemic. The analysis suggests that the institutions and technological diffusion may have acted as a “brake” both to the Malthusian dynamic and to the workers claims for higher real wage, preventing a “break point” in the economic-political fabric comparable to that caused by the Black Death. On the contrary, it seems more reasonable to suppose a principle for a revolution in the philosophical-cultural sphere. In the light of sociological studies, the authors analyse the practices adopted by both Christian and Pagan communities to combat the Antonine-Plague’s mortality. The capacity of the Christian community to provide more effective responses than Pagan one during the epidemic could have been one of the key factors for the success of this philosophy in the following centuries. The paper concludes with a section that compares, using all possible precautions, the Antonine Plague with nowadays Coronavirus pandemic.
This paper investigates the relationships between urbanization and long-term economic growth in t... more This paper investigates the relationships between urbanization and long-term economic growth in the pre-industrial world. To this end, we compiled a novel dataset collecting all currently available data on urban and rural populations in an Italian pre-unification state, the Republic of Genoa. Data show the paradoxical coexistence of high urbanization levels with cyclical Malthusian stagnations. Putting together empirical results and historical evidence, we interpreted this puzzle, highlighting how a high degree of urbanization could be the consequence of widespread poverty, rather than a measure of rising standards of living. To describe this phenomenon, we coined the term “Malthusian urbanization”.
Reviewed Work(s): Capital, Investment and Innovation in the Roman World by Paul Erdkamp, Koenraad... more Reviewed Work(s): Capital, Investment and Innovation in the Roman World by Paul Erdkamp, Koenraad Verboven and Arjan Zuiderhoek
This paper evaluates competing approaches to assess the effectiveness of transmission channels fo... more This paper evaluates competing approaches to assess the effectiveness of transmission channels for the U.S. monetary policy from 1°Q 1995 to 3°Q 2019. While evaluating the competing approaches, the paper follows wavelet coherence approach providing results in time and frequency domain. The results show how money and credit channels work quite well during low volatile periods generally, whereas they suggest that these channels are less effective during periods of financial turmoil and very low interest rate. However, investment-based channels and the bank-lending channel revisited version show some effects also during periods of instability. In more detail, investment-based channels and the bank-lending channel revisited appear to be the most effective monetary policy transmission mechanisms, while the traditional banking-lending channel seems effective only in low volatile periods. Finally, the results for consumption-based channels and international trade-based channels show the least effectiveness.
This paper aims to evaluate validity of Bank-Lending Channel Revisited theory (BLCR) within a mac... more This paper aims to evaluate validity of Bank-Lending Channel Revisited theory (BLCR) within a macroeconomic framework extended for diversified credit demand. The extension of BLCR model (EBLCR) relaxed assumption of credit cycle as a function of bank lending rate and enabled a more comprehensive analysis of demand for credit. In order to include a diversified credit demand in the original BLCR model, we put an alternative financing source in addition to the bank lending; the commercial papers market. This extension seems to undermine the main conclusions provided by BLCR; banks financing cost is not the only relevant variable in driving credit cycle. Specifically, bank lending and commercial papers may become “close” substitutes following monetary policy and aggregate demand shock, reducing the relevance of bank lending in whole credit market. In order to develop this reasoning; we have looked at U.S economy during the period 1°Q 1980 - 1°Q 2020 through a time-varying non-parametric VAR model.
In the last two decades, an increasing amount of papyrological findings have begun to shed more l... more In the last two decades, an increasing amount of papyrological findings have begun to shed more light on the demographic and economic consequences of the Antonine Plague in Roman Egypt. However, both results and conclusions on this subject remain quite controversial. This paper reinterprets the Antonine Plague's effects on Roman Egypt within the larger fiscal crisis triggered by simultaneous military aggressions at the borders of the Empire. Adopting such a framework sheds light on emerging distorted incentives in land management, which apparently pushed imperial authorities and large landowners to adopt extra-economic measures to stem falling rents, at the expense of tenants, coloni, and workers. Roman Egypt's reaction to the epidemic seems to have been quite different from the reaction of Western Europe to the Black Death many centuries later. Roman Egypt took the first step toward the serfdom system.
Did long-distance trade in the Roman world operate on a sufficiently big scale to increase the ov... more Did long-distance trade in the Roman world operate on a sufficiently big scale to increase the overall size of markets, enabling specialization of labor and thus Smithian growth? Although the Malthusian model represents the dominant view to describe the economic performance of the ancient world, economic theory suggests that the Smithian model could produce a kind of endogenous growth through market integration generated by the amount of trade, independently of the level of innovation. This investigation questions the possibility that, even in ancient times, a high capacity for specialization of labor due to an extensive and integrated market was able to stimulate a basic form of sustained economic growth.
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