Badrul Masud

This study analyzes 24 climate extreme indices over North Thailand using observed data for daily maximum and minimum temperatures and total daily rainfall for the 1960–2010 period, and HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) and PRECIS Regional Climate Model simulated data for the 1960–2100 period. A statistical downscaling tool is employed to downscale GCM outputs. Variations in and trends of historical and future climates are identified using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope. Temperature extreme indices showed a significant rising trend during the observed period and are expected to increase significantly with an increase in summer days and tropical nights in the future. A notable decline in the number of cool days and nights is also expected in the study area while the number of warm days and nights is expected to increase. There was an insignificant decrease in total annual rainfall, number of days with rainfall more than 10 and 20 mm. However, the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 9.65% in the future 2011–2099 period compared to the observed 1960–2010 period.

This study is focused on the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) that spans southern parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the three Prairie Provinces of Canada, where most of the country’s agricultural activities are concentrated. The SRB is confronted with immense water-related challenges and is now one of the ten GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Regional Hydroclimate Projects in the world. In the past, various multi-year droughts have been observed in this part of Canada that impacted agriculture, energy and socio-economic sectors. Therefore, proper understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of historical droughts is important for many water resources planning and management related activities across the basin. In the study, observed gridded data of daily precipitation and temperature and conventional univariate and copula-based bivariate frequency analyses are used to characterize drought events in terms of drought severity and duration on the basis of two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Within the framework of univariate and bivariate analyses, drought risk indicators are developed and mapped across the SRB to delineate the most vulnerable parts of the basin. Based on the results obtained, southern parts of the SRB (i.e., western part of the South Saskatchewan River, Seven Persons Creek and Bigstick Lake watersheds) are associated with a higher drought risk, while moderate risk is noted for the North Saskatchewan River (except its eastern parts), Red Deer River, Oldman River, Bow River, Sounding Creek, Carrot River and Battle River watersheds. Lower drought risk is found for the areas surrounding the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border (particularly, the Saskatchewan River watershed). It is also found that the areas characterized with higher drought severity are also associated with higher drought duration. A comparison of SPI- and SPEI-based analyses suggests only little effect of considering temperature, in the form of evapotranspiration, on identifying drought vulnerable areas. It is expected that the findings of the study will be helpful in the management and efficient utilization of the water resources of this important river basin in Canada.

Keywords    Canadian Prairies;    Copula function;    Drought risk analysis;    SPEI;    SPI;    Saskatchewan River Basin