Papers by JR Ferrer Paris
Nature, 2022
As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Bi... more As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of ‘living in harmony with nature’1,2. Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management3. Ecosystems vary in their biota4, service provision5 and relative exposure to risks6, yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth’s ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.
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Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2003
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Conservation Letters, 2019
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Animal Conservation, 2014
ABSTRACT Ecological traps occur when rapid environmental change makes organisms' habitat ... more ABSTRACT Ecological traps occur when rapid environmental change makes organisms' habitat selection cues misleading and leads them to prefer poor quality habitats. Such traps can threaten the persistence of affected populations, so techniques to predict and map potential traps are of great conservation interest. Here we present a novel method for visualizing such traps and their uncertainty at large scales in a natural landscape, by combining a spatially explicit model of anthropogenic threats with one of occurrence probability. We began with poaching and occurrence data for Andean bears in the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela, and applied a partitioning procedure to generate 10 replicates of three partially independent data subsets. To the first subset, we fit a previously developed model of poaching probability, while we used the second and third subsets to fit, validate and select the best of four occurrence probability models. We then combined replicates of the poaching probability model with those of the best occurrence probability model to predict the spatial distribution and uncertainty of potential ecological traps. The best occurrence model predicted high probabilities in the center and in the northern parts of Cordillera de Mérida, with variation among replicates in the same areas. Predicted areas of occurrence covered 10 217 ± 2762 km2 (24%) of the study area. However, more than a third of this area had a high probability of being an ecological trap. Furthermore, these potential ecological traps were next to or within the largest national parks and were surrounded by large areas with high occurrence probability and low poaching probability. Future research should focus on independent verification of potential occupancy and ecological traps, as well as on bear dispersal behavior. In areas where ecological traps are confirmed, targeted education and law enforcement will be most effective, while in confirmed safe harbor areas, increasing connectivity will be equally important. Our approach will be useful to identify potential ecological traps at the landscape level created by hunting and other human activities elsewhere in the world.
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Therya, Sep 30, 2018
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Conservation Letters, 2019
In 2014, the International Union for Conservation of Nature adopted the Red List of Ecosystems (R... more In 2014, the International Union for Conservation of Nature adopted the Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) criteria as the global standard for assessing risks to terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems. Five years on, it is timely to ask what impact this new initiative has had on ecosystem management and conservation. In this policy perspective, we use an impact evaluation framework to distinguish the outputs, outcomes, and impacts of the RLE since its inception. To date, 2,821 ecosystems in 100 countries have been assessed following the RLE protocol. Systematic assessments are complete or underway in 21 countries and two continental regions (the Americas and Europe). Countries with established ecosystem policy infrastructure have already used the RLE to inform legislation, land‐use planning, protected area management, monitoring and reporting, and ecosystem management. Impacts are still emerging due to varying pace and commitment to implementation across different countries. In the future, RLE indices based on systematic assessments have high potential to inform global biodiversity reporting. Expanding the coverage of RLE assessments, building capacity and political will to undertake them, and establishing stronger policy instruments to manage red‐listed ecosystems will be key to maximizing conservation impacts over the coming decades.
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Conservation Letters, 2019
Ferrer-Paris JR, Zager
I, Keith DA, et al. . Conservation Letters. 2018;e12623. https://
doi.org/... more Ferrer-Paris JR, Zager
I, Keith DA, et al. . Conservation Letters. 2018;e12623. https://
doi.org/10.1111/conl.12623
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Species distribution models (SDM) can be valuable for identifying key habitats for conservation m... more Species distribution models (SDM) can be valuable for identifying key habitats for conservation management of threatened taxa, but anthropogenic habitat change can undermine SDM accuracy. We used data for the Red Siskin (Spinus cucullatus), a critically endangered bird and ground truthing to examine anthropogenic habitat change as a source of SDM inaccuracy. We aimed to estimate: (1) the Red Siskin's historic distribution in Venezuela; (2) the portion of this historic distribution lost to vegetation degradation ; and (3) the location of key habitats or areas with both, a high probability of historic occurrence and a low probability of vegetation degradation. We ground-truthed 191 locations and used expert opinion as well as landscape characteristics to classify species' habitat suitability as excellent, good, acceptable, or poor. We fit a Random Forest model (RF) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the expert categorization of habitat suitability. We estimated the probability of historic occurrence by fitting a MaxLike model using 88 presence records (1960–2013) and data on forest cover and aridity index. Of the entire study area, 23% (20,696 km 2) had a historic probability of Red Siskin occurrence over 0.743. Furthermore, 85% of ground-truthed locations had substantial reductions in mean EVI, resulting in key habitats totaling just 976 km 2 , in small blocks in the western and central regions. Decline in Area of Occupancy over 15 years was between 40% and 95%, corresponding to an extinction risk category between Vulnerable and Critically Endangered. Relating key habitats with other landscape features revealed significant risks and opportunities for proposed conservation interventions, including the fact that ongoing vegetation degradation could limit the establishment of reintroduced populations in eastern areas, while the conservation of remaining key habitats on private lands could be improved with biodiversity-friendly agri-and silviculture programs.
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The worldwide decline in carnivore populations has been attributed to various human impacts. Howe... more The worldwide decline in carnivore populations has been attributed to various human impacts. However, our understanding of the mechanisms behind these declines is insufficient to predict the timing and location of local extinctions. We collected data on presence/absence and time since extirpation of jaguars across Venezuela. To test if human impacts or ecosystem productivity better explain the observed spatial variation in probability of jaguar occurrence we compared logistic regression models fit with different combinations of anthropogenic and environmental variables. Similarly, we modelled the time since extirpation, using a multiple regression approach. Our study supported the hypothesis that jaguar extirpations and distribution are determined by a joint effect of anthropogenic factors and environmental variables, mainly those related with ecosystem productivity. Human population density and habitat alterations exerted strong negative effects on jaguar populations, while annual precipitation, mean temperature, forest cover, primary productivity , and other vegetation indices had positive effects. The strength of human impact is shaped by ecosystem productivity: jaguars disappear faster in dry, unproductive areas, and survive better in humid, productive areas even when human densities are higher. We estimated that jaguars in Venezuela have been extirpated from approximately 26% of the territory of Venezuela; present jaguar range covers approximately 66% of the country. We demonstrate that human population density alone cannot adequately explain past extirpations nor predict future jaguar declines. We conclude that the predicted future growth of the human population will not necessarily determine jaguar declines, and proper management and conservation programs could potentially prevent jaguar extirpations.
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Illegal wildlife trade is one of the major threats to Neotropical psittacids, with nearly 28% of ... more Illegal wildlife trade is one of the major threats to Neotropical psittacids, with nearly 28% of species targeted for the illegal pet trade. We analysed the most comprehensive data set on illegal wildlife trade currently available for Venezuela, from various sources, to provide a quantitative assessment of the magnitude, scope and detectability of the trade in psittacids at the national level. We calculated a specific offer index (SO) based on the frequency of which each species was offered for sale. Forty-seven species of psittacids were traded in Venezuela during 1981–2015, of which 17 were non-native. At least 641,675 individuals were traded, with an overall extraction rate of 18,334 individuals per year (35 years of accumulated reports). Amazona ochrocephala was the most frequently detected species (SO = 3.603), with the highest extraction rate (10,544 individuals per year), followed by Eupsittula pertinax (SO = 1.357) and Amazona amazonica (SO = 1.073). Amazona barbadensis , Ara ararauna and Ara chloropterus were the fourth most frequently detected species (SO = 0.564–0.615). Eleven species were involved principally in domestic trade (> 60% of records). Our approach could be the first step in developing a national monitoring programme to inform national policy on the trade in psittacids. Patterns and numbers provided may be used to update the official list of threatened species, and could also be used in planning conservation actions.
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Worldwide, many large mammals are threatened by poaching. However, understanding the causes of po... more Worldwide, many large mammals are threatened by poaching. However, understanding the causes of poaching is difficult when both hunter and hunted are elusive. One alternative is to apply regression models to opportunistically-collected data but doing so without accounting for inherent biases may result in misleading conclusions. To demonstrate a straightforward method to account for such biases, and to guide further research on an elusive Vulnerable species, we visualized spatio-temporal poaching patterns in 844 Andean bear Tremarctos ornatus presence reports from the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela. To create maps of poaching risk we fitted two logistic regression models to a subset of 287 precisely georeferenced reports, one ignoring and one including spatial autocorrelation. Whereas the variance explained by both models was low, the second had better fit and predictive ability, and indicated that protected status had a significant positive effect on reducing poaching risk. Poaching risk increased at lower altitudes, where all indicators of human disturbance increased, although there was scant evidence that human-bear conflicts are a major direct trigger of poaching events. Because highest-risk areas were different from areas with most bear reports, we speculate that hunting may be driven by opportu-nistic encounters, rather than by purposeful searches in high-quality bear habitat. Further research comparing risk maps with bear abundance models and data on poaching behaviour will be invaluable for clarifying poaching causes and for identifying management strategies.
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The worldwide decline in carnivore populations has been attributed to various human impacts. Howe... more The worldwide decline in carnivore populations has been attributed to various human impacts. However, our understanding of the mechanisms behind these declines is insufficient to predict the timing and location of local extinctions. We collected data on presence/absence and time since extirpation of jaguars across Venezuela. To test if human impacts or ecosystem productivity better explain the observed spatial variation in probability of jaguar occurrence we compared logistic regression models fit with different combinations of anthropogenic and environmental variables. Similarly, we modelled the time since extirpation, using a multiple regression approach. Our study supported the hypothesis that jaguar extirpations and distribution are determined by a joint effect of anthropogenic factors and environmental variables, mainly those related with ecosystem productivity. Human population density and habitat alterations exerted strong negative effects on jaguar populations, while annual precipitation, mean temperature, forest cover, primary productivity , and other vegetation indices had positive effects. The strength of human impact is shaped by ecosystem productivity: jaguars disappear faster in dry, unproductive areas, and survive better in humid, productive areas even when human densities are higher. We estimated that jaguars in Venezuela have been extirpated from approximately 26% of the territory of Venezuela; present jaguar range covers approximately 66% of the country. We demonstrate that human population density alone cannot adequately explain past extirpations nor predict future jaguar declines. We conclude that the predicted future growth of the human population will not necessarily determine jaguar declines, and proper management and conservation programs could potentially prevent jaguar extirpations.
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A good indicator species should be easy to sample,
identify and measure, and be informative about... more A good indicator species should be easy to sample,
identify and measure, and be informative about its ecological
context. We analysed data from a nation-wide dung beetle
survey in Venezuela in order to assess the indicative response
of Oxysternon festivum (Coleoptera: Scarabaeinae) to veg-
etation and climatic condition in the Orinoco river basin. Our
approach consisted of two steps: estimating habitat suit-
ability (HS) from historical records and mean environmental
conditions, and analysing four different properties measured
during a nationwide survey (occurrence, total abundance,
individual body size, and total biomass), in relationship with
HS and current environmental covariates measured from
remote sensors. O. festivum population status could not be
completely explained by historical or current conditions
alone, but rather by combinations of both. It was strongly
associated with forest vegetation, but abundance, biomass
and body size increased under harsher (hotter and drier) cli-
matic conditions. Thus, O. festivum seems to be sensitive to
changes in vegetation cover, but tolerant to certain levels of
perturbance, where it probably replaces other, more sensitive
species. Fully understanding the role of O. festivum requires
the analysis of its relationships to other species. We strongly recommend the development of similar protocols for the
analysis of other potential ecological indicator species,
drawing information from historical and contemporary
sources and exploiting the available statistical tools to reveal
complex patterns. Given the high diversity of dung beetles,
and the growing interest in this group, several candidates will
probably be found in most tropical countries.
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RESUMEN: Identificar y cuantificar cambios espacio-temporales de distribución de especies es útil... more RESUMEN: Identificar y cuantificar cambios espacio-temporales de distribución de especies es útil para el manejo de especies invasoras, problemas de salud pública y la conservación de la biodiversidad. Estudiar cambios en la distribución requiere comparar datos de diferentes periodos de tiempo, lo cual pudiese representar diferencias de muestreo más que de distribución, por ello deben aplicarse técnicas que disminuyan este problema. Además, estos datos generalmente representan presencia de especies, sin información sobre la ausencia, pudiendo interferir en la interpretación de la distribución. Los análisis de distribución pueden revelar extinciones, colonizaciones y desplazamientos, los cuales son procesos complejos de identificar y cuantificar porque requieren gran esfuerzo muestral. El objetivo del presente seminario fue conocer y analizar los métodos para detectar y cuantificar cambios en la distribución geográfica de especies con datos de presencia de períodos distintos. Para ello, se realizó una búsqueda bibliográfica por palabras claves. Se revisaron 86 artículos, ocho de ellos efectivamente realizan estos análisis. De estos ocho trabajos, dos comparan mapas de distribución de épocas distintas, tres utilizan estimados de extinciones locales y colonizaciones; y tres utilizan modelos predictivos. Se describen los métodos empleados en cada caso y se identifican dos retos principales: un reto metodológico y un reto conceptual. El principal reto metodológico consiste es comparar datos de diferentes épocas y métodos y minimizar el efecto de los sesgos presentes. Los modelos de probabilidad de presencia y detección para múltiples temporadas aparecen como los métodos conceptualmente más adecuados, pero requieren un esfuerzo de muestreo mucho mayor. Se requieren más opciones que permitan extraer la máxima ventaja a los datos comúnmente disponibles. PALABRAS CLAVE: Modelos de Nicho Ecológico, Modelos de probabilidad de presencia, Idoneidad de hábitat, Desplazamiento de la distribución. ABSTRACT: Identifying and quantifying spatio-temporal changes in species distribution is necessary for successful management of species of conservation concern, invasive species, and species of medical or economic importance. The study of distribution changes is based on data from two different time periods, and requires discerning real distribution change from the changes in sampling effort. Distribution changes are measured in terms of extinctions, colonizations and range shifts, but lack of adequate information about species absences might interfere in the interpretation of results. The aim of this review was to analyse a representative sample of the literature about species distribution, in order to identify methods for detecting and quantifying changes in distribution between two time frames. Literature was selected using several combinations of keywords in a academic search engine. We selected and analyzed 86 distinct publications, an identified eight articles with quantitative examples: two compared distribution maps, three used estimates of local extinctions and colonizations and three were based in predictive models. We describe the main methods in each example, and summarize a methodological and a conceptual challenges. The methodological challenge is how to compare data from different time frames collected with different methods while minimizing inherent biases. Dynamic occupancy models provide the most complete conceptual framework for comparing different processes, but require a larger sampling effort than other methods. It is necessary to explore further options for the analysis of available data on species distribution.
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The Wilson Journal of Ornithology, 2012
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Oryx, 2010
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Interciencia Revista De Ciencia Y Tecnologia De America, 2010
In The Hague in April 2002, the parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) committed... more In The Hague in April 2002, the parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) committed themselves to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at global, regional, and national level as a contribution to poverty ...
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Resumen
Las moscas de la Familia Calliphoridae son consideradas muy importantes en la entomología... more Resumen
Las moscas de la Familia Calliphoridae son consideradas muy importantes en la entomología forense y la salud pública. La introducción de especies de moscas exóticas de la misma Famila pueden modificar la estructura de las comunidades y el cursos sucesional natural que se observa en los cadáveres. En el presente trabajo, se documenta el registro de dos especies de moscas exóticas Chrysomya rufifacies y C. putoria en Venezuela. Los ejemplares fueron debidamente procesados: se identificaron las especies basados en caracteres diagnósticos y se depositaron en insectarios especialmente habilitados en el Instituto Venezolano de Investigación Científicas. Con estos registros se confirma la presencia de cuatro especies de moscas exóticas para Venezuela.
Abstract
Flies of the Calliphoridae family are considered very important in forensic entomology and public health. The introduction of exotic flies in a new range can affect natural sucesional path observed in dead corpses. In this paper, the registration of two species of exotic flies: Chrysomya rufifacies and C. putoria in Venezuela is documented. The specimens were duly processed: species based on diagnostic characters were identified and deposited in specially authorized insectaries at the Venezuelan Institute of Scientific Research. With these records the presence of four species of exotic flies to Venezuela is confirmed.
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Uploads
Papers by JR Ferrer Paris
I, Keith DA, et al. . Conservation Letters. 2018;e12623. https://
doi.org/10.1111/conl.12623
identify and measure, and be informative about its ecological
context. We analysed data from a nation-wide dung beetle
survey in Venezuela in order to assess the indicative response
of Oxysternon festivum (Coleoptera: Scarabaeinae) to veg-
etation and climatic condition in the Orinoco river basin. Our
approach consisted of two steps: estimating habitat suit-
ability (HS) from historical records and mean environmental
conditions, and analysing four different properties measured
during a nationwide survey (occurrence, total abundance,
individual body size, and total biomass), in relationship with
HS and current environmental covariates measured from
remote sensors. O. festivum population status could not be
completely explained by historical or current conditions
alone, but rather by combinations of both. It was strongly
associated with forest vegetation, but abundance, biomass
and body size increased under harsher (hotter and drier) cli-
matic conditions. Thus, O. festivum seems to be sensitive to
changes in vegetation cover, but tolerant to certain levels of
perturbance, where it probably replaces other, more sensitive
species. Fully understanding the role of O. festivum requires
the analysis of its relationships to other species. We strongly recommend the development of similar protocols for the
analysis of other potential ecological indicator species,
drawing information from historical and contemporary
sources and exploiting the available statistical tools to reveal
complex patterns. Given the high diversity of dung beetles,
and the growing interest in this group, several candidates will
probably be found in most tropical countries.
Las moscas de la Familia Calliphoridae son consideradas muy importantes en la entomología forense y la salud pública. La introducción de especies de moscas exóticas de la misma Famila pueden modificar la estructura de las comunidades y el cursos sucesional natural que se observa en los cadáveres. En el presente trabajo, se documenta el registro de dos especies de moscas exóticas Chrysomya rufifacies y C. putoria en Venezuela. Los ejemplares fueron debidamente procesados: se identificaron las especies basados en caracteres diagnósticos y se depositaron en insectarios especialmente habilitados en el Instituto Venezolano de Investigación Científicas. Con estos registros se confirma la presencia de cuatro especies de moscas exóticas para Venezuela.
Abstract
Flies of the Calliphoridae family are considered very important in forensic entomology and public health. The introduction of exotic flies in a new range can affect natural sucesional path observed in dead corpses. In this paper, the registration of two species of exotic flies: Chrysomya rufifacies and C. putoria in Venezuela is documented. The specimens were duly processed: species based on diagnostic characters were identified and deposited in specially authorized insectaries at the Venezuelan Institute of Scientific Research. With these records the presence of four species of exotic flies to Venezuela is confirmed.
I, Keith DA, et al. . Conservation Letters. 2018;e12623. https://
doi.org/10.1111/conl.12623
identify and measure, and be informative about its ecological
context. We analysed data from a nation-wide dung beetle
survey in Venezuela in order to assess the indicative response
of Oxysternon festivum (Coleoptera: Scarabaeinae) to veg-
etation and climatic condition in the Orinoco river basin. Our
approach consisted of two steps: estimating habitat suit-
ability (HS) from historical records and mean environmental
conditions, and analysing four different properties measured
during a nationwide survey (occurrence, total abundance,
individual body size, and total biomass), in relationship with
HS and current environmental covariates measured from
remote sensors. O. festivum population status could not be
completely explained by historical or current conditions
alone, but rather by combinations of both. It was strongly
associated with forest vegetation, but abundance, biomass
and body size increased under harsher (hotter and drier) cli-
matic conditions. Thus, O. festivum seems to be sensitive to
changes in vegetation cover, but tolerant to certain levels of
perturbance, where it probably replaces other, more sensitive
species. Fully understanding the role of O. festivum requires
the analysis of its relationships to other species. We strongly recommend the development of similar protocols for the
analysis of other potential ecological indicator species,
drawing information from historical and contemporary
sources and exploiting the available statistical tools to reveal
complex patterns. Given the high diversity of dung beetles,
and the growing interest in this group, several candidates will
probably be found in most tropical countries.
Las moscas de la Familia Calliphoridae son consideradas muy importantes en la entomología forense y la salud pública. La introducción de especies de moscas exóticas de la misma Famila pueden modificar la estructura de las comunidades y el cursos sucesional natural que se observa en los cadáveres. En el presente trabajo, se documenta el registro de dos especies de moscas exóticas Chrysomya rufifacies y C. putoria en Venezuela. Los ejemplares fueron debidamente procesados: se identificaron las especies basados en caracteres diagnósticos y se depositaron en insectarios especialmente habilitados en el Instituto Venezolano de Investigación Científicas. Con estos registros se confirma la presencia de cuatro especies de moscas exóticas para Venezuela.
Abstract
Flies of the Calliphoridae family are considered very important in forensic entomology and public health. The introduction of exotic flies in a new range can affect natural sucesional path observed in dead corpses. In this paper, the registration of two species of exotic flies: Chrysomya rufifacies and C. putoria in Venezuela is documented. The specimens were duly processed: species based on diagnostic characters were identified and deposited in specially authorized insectaries at the Venezuelan Institute of Scientific Research. With these records the presence of four species of exotic flies to Venezuela is confirmed.
Sierra Nevada. No se han determinado los límites exactos de su hábitat, pero considerando la
distribución de otras especies del mismo género, pareciera estar restringida a los alrededores de las
lagunas que rodean al Pico Mucuñuque, entre los 3400 y 3600 m (Viloria et al. 2015).
Situación:
La especie se considera localmente abundante y al menos una de las poblaciones conocidas parece
mantenerse estable desde el año 2000 hasta 2015 (Ferrer-Paris 2000, Viloria et al. 2015), pero es
notable el aumento en la intensidad de la ganadería extensiva a su alrededor (Ferrer-Paris y Vitoria
[sic] 2004). De acuerdo con la descripción de su hábitat se puede estimar que ocupa un área menor
o igual a 51,0 ± 7.0 km 2 (AOO), con una extensión inferior a 550 km 2 (EOO). Su localidad está
moderadamente fragmentada, con una tendencia negativa significativa en los últimos diez años
(Ferrer-Paris MS). Con base en estos análisis se considera en la categoría EN según el criterio
B1ab(iii)+2ab(iii).