Peer Reviewed Manuscripts
Water Economics and Policy, 2018
Municipal water demand has declined over the past several decades in many large cities in the wes... more Municipal water demand has declined over the past several decades in many large cities in the western United States. The same is true in Clovis, New Mexico, which is a small town in arid eastern New Mexico, whose sole water source is from the dwindling southern Ogallala Aquifer. Using premises-level monthly panel data from 2006 to 2015 combined with climate data and additional controls, we apply a fixed effects instrumental variable approach to estimate municipal water demand. Results indicate that utility-controlled actions such as price increases and rebates for xeriscaping and water saving technology have contributed to the decline. Overall water demand was found to be price inelastic and in the neighborhood of −0.50; however, premises receiving toilet and washing machine rebates were relatively more price inelastic and premises receiving landscaping rebates were more price elastic, though still inelastic. In addition, the average premises receiving its first toilet rebate reduced water use by 8.4%, washing machine rebates lowered use by 9.2%, and the average landscaping rebate reduced water use by less than 5.0%. From the utility's perspective, and assuming a 5.0% discount rate, levelized cost analysis indicates that toilet rebates are 34% more cost effective than washing machine rebates and nearly 800% more cost effective than landscaping rebates over their respective lives per volume of water conserved. While this research focuses on Clovis, estimation results can be leveraged by other small to mid-sized cities experiencing declining supplies, confronting climate change, and with little opportunity for near-term supply enhancement.
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Applied Economics Letters, 2017
While the municipal water demand literature is well developed, one area that is understudied is t... more While the municipal water demand literature is well developed, one area that is understudied is the impact of spatial effects. After controlling for factors shown to impact demand, this study applies spatial econometric methods via a spatial weights matrix to a panel municipal water consumption dataset. While diagnostics suggest the presence of spatial lag and spatial error, thus indicating the potential usefulness of spatial empirical methods, several important pitfalls must be acknowledged. First, the application of spatial weights in a panel setting is computationally intensive, especially when the number of time periods or observations is large, and perhaps necessitates aggregation. Second, because most users in a municipality are likely to be subject to similar utility action, climate, etc., a spatial lag signal may be spurious. Third, because premises served by the utility may enter or exit the dataset through time, the requirement of balanced panels requires careful consideration. Fourth, if the option to use premises-level (or similar) data or aggregated data is available, it is typically advisable to use premises-level data despite the possible presence of spatial effects.
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Human Dimensions of Wildlife, Jun 16, 2016
Since 1955, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has conducted the National Survey of Fish... more Since 1955, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has conducted the National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Association Recreation (FHWAR) with the purpose of evaluating outdoor recreation. Using the socioeconomic, activity, and contingent valuation data collected from the last three rounds of this national survey (2001, 2006, 2011), econometric modeling demonstrates that variables such as age, income, gender, and type of land visited (public/private) explain variation in wildlife watching willingness to pay (WTP) and consumer surplus (CS). Although not having been fully investigated in the previous FHWAR contingent valuation literature, results suggest that distinguishing between in-state and out-of-state wildlife watching is important. Additionally, analyses indicate that CS for out-of-state wildlife watching along with CS and WTP for in-state wildlife watching are temporarily reliable. Given the study period overlaps the recent recession, this outcome suggests that welfare is stable across time and in the face of business cycles.
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Western Economics Forum, 2010
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Reports to US Bureau of Reclamation
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Climate change brings about hydrologic changes that include higher seasonal inter-annual and deca... more Climate change brings about hydrologic changes that include higher seasonal inter-annual and decadal variability in precipitation, streamflow and water in storage. This increased variability poses challenges for those responsible for providing reliable water supplies for urban and environmental needs. A new generation of risk sharing arrangements are being negotiated between owners of high reliability water supplies, often agricultural districts, and urban and environmental water providers. This chapter outlines the features of such arrangements, provides examples of where they are being implemented, discusses the challenges of measuring and monitoring reduced consumptive use on farms and implemented, and elucidates policy recommendations to help support more cost effective arrangements responsive to climate change needs.
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Technical Papers: Labor, Demography, and Public
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The 2013 Legislature considered a number of tax bills and ultimately passed HB-641 in the waning ... more The 2013 Legislature considered a number of tax bills and ultimately passed HB-641 in the waning hours of the Session. While Fiscal Impact Reports (FIRs) had been done for a number of the pieces of the final HB-641, a comprehensive report was not released until after the session, with the final update occurring on April 15. This report is concerned with two changes that were made to NM’s corporate income tax, the phased in reduction to the marginal corporate income tax rate, which over 5-years will lower the maximum corporate rate from 6.7% down to 5.9%, and a phased in option for manufacturers to apportion their corporate tax liability using a single sales factor in preference to a formula that equally weights sales, employment and assets.
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Technical Papers: Natural Resources
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This Working Group was funded by the State Legislature in 2014 to: (1) assess the current status ... more This Working Group was funded by the State Legislature in 2014 to: (1) assess the current status of water supply and demand after years of severe drought in New Mexico; (2) put the current drought into long-term context with reduced surface water, groundwater depletions, and economic activity; and (3) develop a list of vulnerabilities and promote policy strategies to mitigate these vulnerabilities. Funding for the Working Group uniquely and directly involves researchers from all three research universities in New Mexico, and includes both water and social scientists. We report here on findings generated in Fiscal Year 2014-15, during which we focused on the Lower Rio Grande, which is heavily affected by extremely low water storage in Elephant Butte Reservoir. We have compared the current drought situation with the historical drought of the 1950s, examining hydroclimatic changes that have occurred over the past half-century, which impact surface water and groundwater supplies, and the economic and social impacts of the 1950s and current droughts.
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The water stressed western United States has increasingly relied on water marketing, or the tempo... more The water stressed western United States has increasingly relied on water marketing, or the temporary or permanent transfer of water entitlements from one user to another, to manage shortage. While this has long been true for transfers between agricultural users and between agricultural users and municipal and industrial (M&I) users, there has also been increasing interest in water transfers for environmental purposes. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the drivers of environmental water transfer volumes in the literature and specifically whether transfer volumes are related to economic growth. Using water transaction data for 12 western U.S. states over the period 1987 to 2008, and analogizing the conceptual framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), this paper investigates the degree to which water volumes transferred for environmental purposes are associated with economic growth. A key result is that environmental water transfer volumes appear to follow the inverted U-shape that characterizes the classic EKC implying that transfer volumes increase with economic growth for a given range of growth and then decrease. This result is robust to the inclusion of additional explanatory variables, at the level of trade volume per transaction, and at the level of annually aggregated trade volumes. Non-parametric and panel analyses provide addition support for this conclusion. Water traded for non-environmental purposes, on the other hand, generally follows an opposite pattern, perhaps indicating the increasing utility of water as an input in other productive activities as economic performance improves.
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Water demand projections produced by water utilities and state and federal agencies call for incr... more Water demand projections produced by water utilities and state and federal agencies call for increases in municipal water demand. These projections rely on the so-called " requirements approach, " and typically assume an arbitrary floor on per capita demand, sometimes resulting in projections that diverge from recent trends. Seasonal trend and breakpoint analysis are used to investigate trends in four New Mexico municipalities where increases in demand are projected: Albuquerque, Clovis, Rio Rancho and Edgewood. Analysis points to declining aggregate and per premises water demand – typically for both residential and industrial users. Despite spatial proximity and similar climates, existence and reason for series breaks differs by municipality. While Albuquerque and Edgewood experienced no breaks, Clovis and Rio Rancho experienced breaks. Clovis breakpoints are likely to due to drought conditions, while Rio Rancho's break is confined to high volume users and is likely related to rate increases. Given the general decline in aggregate and premises-level municipal water demand over the period of interest, this study suggests that demand trends over the last decade are likely not fully accounted-for in near-term demand projections. Failing to account for recent trends can lead to costly overinvestment in infrastructure or unnecessary supply augmentation.
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American Journal of Human Biology, 2023
Objectives: Porous lesions of the orbit (cribra orbitalia [CO]) and cranial vault (porotic hypero... more Objectives: Porous lesions of the orbit (cribra orbitalia [CO]) and cranial vault (porotic hyperostosis [PH]) are used as skeletal indicators of childhood stress. Because they are understudied in contemporary populations, their relationship to disease experience is poorly understood. This paper examines the relationship between length of childhood illness and CO/PH formation in a clinically documented sample. "Turning points," which identify the window for lesion formation for CO/PH, are defined, implications for hidden heterogeneity in frailty are considered. Methods: Data are from 333 (199 males; 134 females) pediatric postmortem computed tomography scans. Individuals died in New Mexico (2011-2019) and are 0.5 to 15.99 years (mean = 7.1). Length of illness was estimated using information from autopsy and field reports. Logistic regression was used to estimate predicted probabilities, odds ratios, and the temporal window for lesion formation. Results: Illness, single bouts, or cumulative episodes lasting over 1 month is associated with higher odds of CO; individuals who were never sick have lower odds of having PH. This relationship was consistent for fatal and incidental illnesses that did not cause death. The developmental window for CO formation appears to close at 8 years. Conclusions: Those ill for over 1 month are more likely to have CO/PH than those with acute illnesses. Some individuals lived sufficiently long to form CO/PH but died of illness. Others with lesions died of circumstances unrelated to disease. This indicates hidden variation in robusticity even among ill individuals with CO/PH, which is vital in interpreting lesion frequencies in the archeological record.
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Peer Reviewed Manuscripts
Reports to US Bureau of Reclamation
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Technical Papers: Labor, Demography, and Public
Technical Papers: Natural Resources
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