Rafael Cattan
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia, Graduate Student
- PhD candidate, interested in growth, cycles and economic policy.edit
The paper analyses the financial fragility of Brazilian open-capital non-financial enterprises between 2010 and 2016 according to the typology suggested by Minsky (1992). Applying the methodology from Bacic (1990), the profile of 19 of... more
The paper analyses the financial fragility of Brazilian open-capital non-financial enterprises between 2010 and 2016 according to the typology suggested by Minsky (1992). Applying the methodology from Bacic (1990), the profile of 19 of the 20 economic sectors listed by the Economatica software was analyzed. Concerning the selected period, which was characterized by the reduction of commodities prices, currency depreciation, deceleration of economic growth at the global and domestic levels, and worsening of the financial sources, it was possible to identify a reduction of firms in hedge position and an increase in the number of speculative and ponzi enterprises. However, there are specific sectorial patterns that suggest that some sectors are more resilient than others. This analysis supports the conclusion that, during the reversal of economic cycle, the overall financial fragility of open-capital enterprises increased.
Este trabalho se propoe a analisar o processo de financeirizacao da economia capitalista moderna, compreendido como a dominância do capital portador de juros sobre a economia produtiva. Refletindo mudancas nas praticas economicas em um... more
Este trabalho se propoe a analisar o processo de financeirizacao da economia capitalista moderna, compreendido como a dominância do capital portador de juros sobre a economia produtiva. Refletindo mudancas nas praticas economicas em um mundo cada vez mais globalizado, a analise vigente neste trabalho busca tanto em fatores macroeconomicos, como o padrao monetario internacional e a criacao de moeda, quanto em aspectos micro, como as novas formas de gestao corporativa, elementos fundamentais para a compreensao de um novo padrao de gestao da riqueza no mundo. Podendo ser percebido, sobretudo, a partir do fim do Acordo de Bretton Woods, a natureza instavel da financeirizacao colaborou para o aumento da desigualdade, para a reducao do nivel de crescimento economico global e para a maior ocorrencia de crises economicas na maior parte dos paises.
Modelo univariado de crescimento do produto com previsão dinâmica e estática.
Research Interests:
This paper analyses the relation between fiscal policy and economic growth in Brazil from 2002 to 2016. It is shown that the country's macro regime was inspired on the " New Neoclassical Synthesis " theory, where fiscal policy has no role... more
This paper analyses the relation between fiscal policy and economic growth in Brazil from 2002 to 2016. It is shown that the country's macro regime was inspired on the " New Neoclassical Synthesis " theory, where fiscal policy has no role on stimulating economic activity, while there is a major focus on price stability through monetary policy. In Brazil, economic performance has deteriorated since 2011, when growth rates have gradually slowdown, until a major recession has taken place in 2015 and 2016. In order to understand the government capacity of stimulating growth through fiscal policy, a Structural Vector Auto-Regressive (SVAR) model is applied to the Brazilian economy in order to analyze the impact of different government expenditures, taxation and also the public debt, on economic growth. Resumo Este trabalho analisa a relação entre política fiscal e crescimento econômico no Bra-sil entre 2002 e 2016. Procura-se demonstrar que no regime macroeconômico brasileiro, inspirado no modelo da Nova Síntese Neoclássica, a política fiscal não tem papel ativo no estímulò a demanda agregada, enquanto o controle de preços via política monetária ´ e o principal instrumento macroconômico. No Brasil, após a continúa desaceleração do crescimento econômico a partir de 2011, observou-se dois anos recessivos consecutivos, 1 em 2015 e 2016. A fim de compreendera capacidade do governo em estimular o cresci-mento econômico, neste trabalho estima-se um modelo de Vector Autoregressivo Estru-tural (SVAR), onde analisa-se o impacto dos gastos, da tributação e da dívida pública na dinâmica do PIB.