Political Science

Cette recherche s'est penchée sur le lien entre les guerres civiles et la présence de réserves pétrolières dans les pays en développement. L'hypothèse de travail est que le pétrole augmente la valeur relative d'une région donnée, ce qui encourage à la fois les mouvements armés et les gouvernements de tenter d'établir une hégémonie sur les revenus issus de son exploitation. Cette recherche propose une application des principaux facteurs identifiés par la littérature théorique sur le sujet aux trois grands états pétroliers de l'Afrique subsaharienne (l'Angola, le Nigéria et le Soudan) afin d'explorer l'implication de ces théories sur les différents cas. Cette recherche a, ainsi, identifié quatre facteurs distincts reliant les réserves pétrolières à l'intensification des guerres civiles: la découverte de réserve pétrolière encore inexploitée, le recrutement par les mouvements rebelles, le financement de l'appareil de sécurité et, finalement, la concentration des réserves pétrolières dans une région donnée et la recrudescence du sécessionnisme dans la même région. Ces facteurs démontrent que le pétrole a réellement une influence sur l'intensification (donc un effet catalyseur) des guerres civiles.

Benin and Togo have much in common: both countries are former French colonies; throughout the 20th century, both have achieved a comparable level of economic development; both are characterized by a postcolonial history marked by coups d’états and waves of protestations in favour of democracy in the 1980s. Moreover, in both cases, these waves of protestations resulted in National Conferences and multiparty elections in the early 1990s. Yet, in spite of these similarities, only Benin has succeeded in establishing a democratic state. This thesis attempts to determine why this is the cases. By examining the influence of the opposition parties’ strategies in the overall transition process of Benin and Togo, one concludes that the degree of unity among opposition groups and the various compromises made with the government exerts a critical influence on the success or failure of democratic transitions.

This article integrates the dynamics within authoritarian elites into analysis of democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa. This variable has been excluded from nearly all analysis on the subject. Based on a comparison of three cases, this article concludes that only in cases where popular mobilization was accompanied by deep divisions within the ruling coalition did democratization ensue. The division of the authoritarian coalition in Benin and South Africa created a window of opportunity which enabled pro-democracy forces to push through democratic reforms. Furthermore, only when a majority of the authoritarian elite in South Africa favoured negotiations with the African National Congress and other anti-apartheid political organizations did the transition towards democracy in South Africa make any progress. In contrast, in the Togolese case, a united ruling coalition precluded any reform that would have challenged its political hegemony.

This Ph.D. dissertation analyzes the factors that influence armed forces’ decisions to tolerate or suppress opposition movements demanding political reforms which could lead to regime change. This dissertation helps to fill a large gap in the literature as only a few scholars have attempted to explain military behaviour during regime crisis. It does so
through an analysis of how anti-coup policies and opposition forces’ characteristics lead to the formation of marginalized military cliques and their potential support for regime change. It theorizes that the head of state’s survival strategy, specifically coup-proofing measures, influences military factions’ willingness to preserve the status quo. Reliance on
loyalists leads to armed forces with a powerful core loyal to the incumbent regime and willing to use repression, while the strategy of counterbalancing leads to armed forces largely unattached to the maintenance of the regime. Under these circumstances, opposition
forces can foster regime defection when they offer a viable alternative to the incumbent government, if the opposition can unify around a moderate platform that provides realist demands vis-à-vis regime forces.

The main argument, on the influence of divergent coup-proofing policies on military actions, is assessed through a comparison of Benin and Togo. In each state, authoritarian regimes responded to the challenge of opposition mobilization by initiating negotiation processes. Divergences in coup-prevention techniques and credible commitment capacity of the opposition explain why the opposition campaign in the beginning of the 1990s was successful in Benin but failed in Togo. This research is based
on two methods: process-tracing and the comparative method.

This article addresses the puzzling case of shifting identity constructions in northern Cyprus, from ethnic to civic-territorial in 2003 and back to ethnic in 2009. It is argued that these shifts occur when external factors (EU and Turkey) open/close windows of opportunity for internal elites’ reconfigurations. It then explains societal responsiveness to these nation-building changes sustaining that, over time, a process transforming the perception of the ‘other’ took place from below and a civic-territorial identity layer (Cypriotness) developed along the ethnic Turkish layer. These coexist and fluctuate depending on the given context of choice.