Stacy Closson

Should Russian sanctions on Turkey continue, and Turkey’s intransigence to Russia’s military operations in Syria increases, implications for European security will become evident, particularly for the energy sector.  First is the potential longer-term challenges related to the delay of additional gas supplies through the southern corridor from non-Russian suppliers. Second is the possibility that Russia will increase sanctions against Turkey.  In the post-Soviet states this has led to a monopoly of supply, sudden price hikes, and unannounced cut-offs.  Third are the related implications for Turkey’s economic growth and political stability should energy security decline.  Finally are the longer-term implications for Russia’s role in Eurasia should Turkey’s role as a transit corridor weaken. 

This paper asks:  Under what conditions might the Russian sanctions on Turkey impact EU energy security? What can be done to pre-empt their negative effect?  This paper will outline Russian historical use of sanctions and subsidies in Eurasia.  It will then apply this to Russian sanctions on Turkey and how it may effect European energy security.  Finally, thought will be given to what Turkey and the EU may do to mitigate a crisis.

... complex web of relationships between commercial coordination offices abroad, headed by Soyuznefteexport, resurrected in the 1970s when the price of oil spiked. Banks and ... this policy in the 2003 Energy Strategy of Russia up to 2020 which stated, „Russia ...

This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years. .

... 157 Dge, 31 March 1999. 16Interview with Givi Targamadze, Parliamentary Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee, Tbilisi, April 2005. 17Interview with Levan Ramishvili, Director, Liberty Institute, Tbilisi, April 2005. 768 STACY CLOSSON Page 11. ...

Russia's recent intent to use gas supplies to influence the former Soviet Union Republics, and now New Independent States, has mirrored that of the Soviet's handling of hydrocarbon supplies to the Eastern bloc, or the Council on Mutual Economic Assistance. This paper explores the historical and unique conditions in making a comparison of energy trading patterns in the 1970s and 2000s. In the end, by comparing 'then' and 'now', we see a pattern of negative repercussions when the energy card is employed. This study employs a within case study cross-temporal comparative framework and asks: why would Russia transfer a failed policy of subsidies onto its newly independent states?