Butterflies

Although reaction to the recent Supreme Court ruling on the triggering of Article 50 has focused on arguments about the sovereignty of parliament, for Scotland it has highlighted once again not that parliament is sovereign, but that the Westminster Parliament is – and that this rule applies even if Westminster intends to legislate contrary to Scottish wishes. Sean Swan explains why recent events have brought into sharp focus the broader weaknesses of Scotland’s constitutional position.

Sean Swan provides a brief history of how Sinn Fein came to adopt its abstentionist policy and explains why it will not change a century-long stance to help defeat Brexit in Westminster. He writes that if they were to drop abstentionism, dissident republican organisations would gain support, to the detriment of the peace process. At the same time, were Brexit to be blocked with the help of Sinn Fein and the SNP, the result would be an enflamed English nationalism.

That the UK is in the midst of an ongoing constitutional crisis can no longer be doubted, with question marks hanging over Scotland’s membership of the union, as well as the UK’s membership of the European Union. Sean Swan looks at the parallels with a previous constitutional crisis, and makes the case for rethinking the relationships between the constituent nations of the UK along more flexible lines.

It is often assumed that calls for a second Scottish referendum are due to the fact that Scotland voted to remain in the EU but the UK is nonetheless pursuing a Brexit. Sean Swan argues that EU membership itself is not the issue. It is instead the UK government’s reaction to Scottish opposition and its treatment of Scottish democratic will since the Brexit vote that justify those calls.

The Institute of Economic Affairs has produced a document setting out a post-Brexit 'free trade' plan which would abandon 'regulatory barriers' that, it says, hold back British exports and stymie imports. Sean Swan (Gonzaga University) argues that it would have dangerous consequences for the NHS, manufacturing and food hygiene, and is not what British patients and consumers want.

On Monday the House of Lords voted against changes to tax credits. In doing so, Osborne and Cameron have argued they have broken a constitutional convention, raising “issues that need to be dealt with”. But Sean Swan questions these claims by highlighting that neither the Parliament Act nor the Salisbury Doctrine has been breached as the changes were secondary legislation and did not appear in the Conservative Manifesto.

Theresa May will today become the Prime Minister, following the decision of Andrea Leadsom to abandon her campaign. Here, Sean Swan looks at the possibility that this change of leadership could bring an early general election, and argues that it is unlikely to benefit the main parties and is thus unlikely to happen.

The General Election of 2015 looks set to be an exceptionally good one for the SNP, who look set to not only supplant Labour as the largest party north of the border, but to rout it. Sean Swan argues that this could see considerable change in the way British politics is conducted in future, particularly given their possible involvement in any minority or coalition government emerging from the election.

The cleavages created by Labour’s 2017 electoral performance and by Brexit have made the political landscape more challenging for the SNP. But if the party are able to tack successfully into the new political winds, these challenges can be met, writes Sean Swan, making the forthcoming conference decisive for the party’s future.

A spirited argument has broken out on Democratic Audit UK and on other blogs regarding the implications of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act for what kind of Government may emerge from the General Election. In a previous blog, Colin Talbot argued that a minority government could govern relatively comfortably given the Act, which makes bringing down a government harder. Sean Swan takes issue with this, and argues that the FTPA is an ‘invitation to adventurism’ and could see a minority government “crucified”.

The Brexit result has revealed the weaknesses of the liberal outlook and highlighted the endurance of identity politics, a pattern that has been seen across the globe in recent years. But Sean Swan writes that while global issues are important, we need to focus on the local and recognise the UK state is no longer fit for purpose. He argues that a new constitutional settlement lies in new forms of sovereignty which allow for layered identities.

Sean Swan recently wrote an article for Democratic Audit in which he argued that the concept of class is absent from contemporary UK political debate, even though inequality in Britain is reaching new heights. Chuka Umunna, who was quoted in the piece, responded. Here, Sean continues the debate, and argues that the dominant equality issues of today are economic in nature, and need to be understood in terms of economics, interests and class.

What explains the SNP's performance in the 2017 general election? Although recent focus has been on the 'Corbyn factor' theory, Sean Swan writes that many factors were at play. Too much focus on Corbyn is not going to be productive for the SNP.

In a recent statement, Labour’s Chuka Umunna seemed to suggest the BAME population form one homogeneous political group in the UK. Sean Swan argues this view is not only inaccurate but it perpetuates the perceived significance of ethnicity and diverts attention from more rational political cleavages. He writes that if Labour is to compete effectively with an increasingly liberal Conservative party, it needs to focus on tackling inequalities of class.

Northern Ireland’s politics are in the midst of a crisis fuelled by the UK government’s austerity programme, and continued tensions over the presence of paramilitary forces linked to Sinn Fein. The Conservative Government’s Theresa Villiers has suggested that the reimposition of direct rule from Westminster could be a way out of the impasse. Sean Swan argues that this approach is misguided in the extreme, and potentially very dangerous indeed.

Sinn Fein's presence in the Commons would help focus the government's mind on the consequences of a hard Brexit for Northern Ireland, writes Sean Swan. The very real prospect of a hard border means the time has come for Sinn Fein to decide whether it is playing the game of politics or not.