LSE Global South Unit Working Paper, Méndez, Álvaro and Alden, Christopher (eds.) LSE Ideas, London, UK., 2019
We provide a framework to analyze the foreign policy overexpansion of so-called emerging powers d... more We provide a framework to analyze the foreign policy overexpansion of so-called emerging powers during the early 21st century. To do so, we look at the Brazilian case and how domestic actors colluded to foster the myth of an impending multipolarity, which served as the ideological basis for an unsustainable surge in that state’s international ambition. After reviewing the literature that analyzes the phenomenon of overexpansion in world politics, we proceed in four steps. First, we describe the evolution of the “multipolarity myth” in elite discourse and public opinion polls. Second, we trace how specific interest groups logrolled to foster and capitalize on the myth. Third, we document the increase of the diplomatic budget, Presidential trips abroad, state-backed investments overseas, participation in UN peace operations, and other indicators of expansion. Fourth, we use the synthetic control method, a statistical technique, to infer the extent of overexpansion by comparing Brazil with a plausible counterfactual – i.e. a weighted basket of countries with similar characteristics, yet unaffected by the myth. Although our focus is on Brazil, this framework might help understand other unsuccessful emerging powers who have recently experienced similar overexpansion crises.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Uploads
Peer-Reviewed Articles
The article addresses the main question related to South American unipolarity (1985–2014): Why have most countries in the region not implemented any consistent balancing or bandwagoning strategies vis‐à‐vis Brazil? Drawing on neoclassical realism, the article proposes that certain domestic variables – government instability, limited party‐system institutionalization, and powerful presidents – have diverted the attention of political elites and foreign policy executives from the challenges generated by a rising Brazil. Crisp‐set qualitative comparative analysis is used to test this hypothesis and other alternative explanations for the regional imbalance.
a los hacedores de pronósticos.
Por estos mismos motivos, en este artículo hablaré de cuatro escenarios posibles. Tres de ellos habrán sido descartados en unos pocos meses y solo alguno (siendo optimista) prevalecerá. Para identificarlos, propongo analizar (a) el perfil ideológico y las propuestas del flamante presidente argentino, (b) las instituciones
que pueden moldear sus decisiones en materia de política exterior, y (c) los cambios de contexto que pueden afectar
sus capacidades y/o sus preferencias. En particular, pondré el foco en dos factores contextuales que parecen ser de especial importancia para definir los rumbos de la política exterior: la suerte de la izquierda latinoamericana (incluido el kirchnerismo en repliegue) y el apoyo que Macri reciba de occidente y los mercados.
gelang der UNASUR, einige nationale wie regionale Konflikte zu entschärfen beziehungsweise zu lösen. Damit wurde die Erwartung geweckt, sie werde auch künftig südamerikanische
Probleme souverän und autonom bewältigen. In der aktuellen venezolanischen Krise stößt die UNASUR jedoch an ihre Grenzen. Ihre Legitimität wird auf die Probe gestellt.
Cet article tente de dépasser l’interprétation des cycles d'euphorie et de déception à travers une analyse de trente années d’uni polarité sud-américaine. Pour cela, il situe l’Amérique du Sud dans une transition entre l’historique bipolarité Argentine-Brésilienne et la prédominance régionale actuelle de ce dernier. Par la suite, il relate les éléments quantitatifs et qualitatifs qui distinguent le Brésil de ses voisins et aux voisins entre eux. En finalité, il considère les relations avec ces voisins depuis ces trois dernières décennies et découvre la logique régional par derrière la montée du Brésil.
covers 79 different countries at risk for conflict over the period 1989–2019. Data are available on a yearly basis for these countries, and there are 2,432 individual data points. Short narratives are matched with barometer scores for three illustrative cases: Haiti, Venezuela, and Mozambique.