Anson Mackay

Most studies on the sedimentary diatom assemblages of Lake Baikal have either focused on the very recent past or have been carried out at low sampling resolution on sequences that encompass several glacial/interglacial cycles. Here we present the progress made so far on the high-resolution diatoms analysis of the Holocene records found in three sites, one located in the North basin (Continent Ridge), and two located in the South basin (Posolsky Bank and Vydrino Shoulder). Samples are being analysed at a 5 mm resolution throughout the Holocene record for Vydrino Shoulder and every 1 cm for Posolsky Bank. At Continent Ridge, diatom analysis was carried out every 2 mm on the uppermost 20 cm of the core, while samples for the rest of the Holocene record were analysed every 1 cm only. We expect these to reflect a decadal to centennial resolution. From these three sequences, a very large number of diatom taxa (about 500) have been identified. In all three sequences, endemic planktonic dia...

The ratios of stable carbon and oxygen isotopes are useful palaeoclimatic indicators as they are often governed by climatic factors. This study investigates carbon isotopes of organic matter and oxygen isotopes from biogenic silica of a Holocene profile from Vydrino Shoulder, Lake Baikal. The organic d13C and C/N values are predominantly in the range described for C3 algae. Shifts to higher C/N values can be interpreted as increased inwash from catchment terrestrial sources while lower values indicate increased aquatic productivity. Shifts in d13C can be interpreted in many ways: heavier d13C can be a greater influence of C4 shrubs ad grasses in the catchment indicating climatic cooling. However, heavier values can also result from increased aquatic productivity, decomposition of the organic matter and atmospheric CO2 changes. Values will be members between endmember sources of carbon and interpretation of the record will be aided by understanding of these carbon sources to the lake...

It is important to identify the teleconnections between high latitude forcing and tropical monsoonal circulation in order to understand climate change in East Africa during the Plio-Pleistocene. Here we present a record of aeolian dust transport to the Arabian Sea between approximately 2.9 and 2.3 million years ago (Ma), constructed from the high-resolution XRF scanning of sediment cores from ODP Sites 721 and 722. Variations in the delivery of aeolian dust to the Arabian Sea, reflected in normalised flux of titanium, show that monsoonal circulation prior to 2.6 Ma, and after 2.5 Ma, was highly variable and primarily driven by orbitally-forced changes in tropical summer insolation, strongly modulated by the 400,000 year cycle of orbital eccentricity. This is confirmed by the presence of lakes in the East African Rift Valley during key eccentricity maxima. The dust record is coupled with the analysis of a well-dated series of diatomite units from the Baringo-Bogoria Basin which docum...

Here we present the first dataset to couple oxygen and silicon isotopes determined on diatom silica from a lake sedimentary profile. Samples have been extracted from a sediment core spanning most of the Holocene ( ∼ 9500 years) collected in the south- ern basin of Lake Baikal, the oldest and deepest freshwater lake in the world. After a sequence of oxidative and acid leaching, sieving and gravity settling, the cleaned opaline samples comprising more than 90% diatoms have been analysed by fluorina- tion - IRMS for oxygen isotopes. An additional NaOH leaching step followed by co- precipitation was carried out prior to the Si isotopic analyses by MC-ICP-MS. Oxygen isotopic compositions of Lake Baikal diatoms have been found to be linked to prevail- ing climatic conditions and resulting balance between southern summer precipitation and northern snowmelt. Diatom silicon isotopic compositions in such a large lake as Baikal are expected to be mostly controlled by the diatoms Si relative ut...

Reconstructing climatic variability over the past c. 2 ka years is recognised as a key PAGES timeframe (focus 2). However few high-resolution records exist from the climate sensitive region of N) China which receives the majority of its precipitation from the east Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Interactions between the EASM and the global climate system have great resonance. Such examples include how the EASM responded to changes in climate over the documented eg" Medieval Warm Period"(c. AD 900-1300)," ...

We consider whether the Anthropocene is recorded in the isotope geochemistry of the atmosphere, sediments, plants and ice cores, and the time frame during which any changes are recorded, presenting examples from the literature. Carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios have become more depleted since the 19th century, with the rate of change accelerating after ~ad 1950, linked to increased emissions from fossil fuel consumption and increased production of fertiliser. Lead isotope ratios demonstrate human pollution histories several millennia into the past, while sulphur isotopes can be used to trace the sources of acid rain. Radioisotopes have been detectable across the planet since the 1950s because of atmospheric nuclear bomb tests and can be used as a stratigraphic marker. We find there is isotopic evidence of widespread human impact on the global environment, but different isotopes have registered changes at different times and at different rates.

Humanity faces a major global challenge in achieving wellbeing for all, while simultaneously ensuring that the biophysical processes and ecosystem services that underpin wellbeing are exploited within scientifically informed boundaries of sustainability. We propose a framework for defining the safe and just operating space for humanity that integrates social wellbeing into the original planetary boundaries concept (Rockstro¨m et al., 2009a,b) for application at regional scales. We argue that such a framework can: (1) increase the policy impact of the boundaries concept as most governance takes place at the regional rather than planetary scale; (2) contribute to the understanding and dissemination of complexity thinking throughout governance and policy-making; (3) act as a powerful metaphor and communication tool for regional equity and sustainability. We demonstrate the approach in two rural Chinese localities where we define the safe and just operating space that lies between an environmental ceiling and a social foundation from analysis of time series drawn from monitored and palaeoecological data, and from social survey statistics respectively. Agricultural intensification has led to poverty reduction, though not eradicated it, but at the expense of environmental degradation. Currently, the environmental ceiling is exceeded for degraded water quality at both localities even though the least well-met social standards are for available piped water and sanitation. The conjunction of these social needs and environmental constraints around the issue of water access and quality illustrates the broader value of the safe and just operating space approach for sustainable development.

The Boteti palaeo-estuary in northern Botswana is located where the endoreic Boteti river, an overflow from the
regional Okavango river system, enters the Makgadikgadi pans. The present work considers diagenetic silica and calcium carbonate
dominated transformations. The aims are to help identify precursor conditions for the origin of microcrystalline silcrete–calcrete
intergrade deposits while developing insight into pene-contemporaneous silica and calcite matrix formation. General precursor
conditions require the presence of cyclical endoreic freshwater inflow into a saline pan. The pan should be deep enough to
sustain a permanent watertable under climatic conditions sufficient to cause carbonate fractionation within the groundwater.
Freshwater inflow into a saline pan drives the geochemistry of the system (from freshwater to saline, from neutral to high pH).
The geochemistry is controlled by the periodicity of inflow relative to salinity levels of phreatic groundwater in the receptor
saline pan. The source of most silica and localized CaCO3 is derived from the dissolution and precipitation of microfossils,
while more general CaCO3 enrichment stems from saline pan based carbonate fractionation. Diagenetic change leads
to colloidal then more consolidated bSiO2/CaO aggregate formation (amorphous silica) followed by transformations into opaline
silica over time. Irregular zones of siliceous sediment forming in otherwise calcareous deposits may relate to the irregular
occurrence of biogenic silica in the source sediments, inferring a source for local silica mobilization in intergrade deposits.
The distribution of calcareous micro-fossils may have a similar converse effect. Diagenetic evidence from an intergrade
deposit with a low SiO2/CaO ratio suggests that transformation occurred more into the pan, while an intergrade deposit with
a high SiO2/CaO ratio more likely formed closer to a land margin and was frequently inundated by freshwater. Penecontemporaneous
silcrete–calcrete intergrade formation under the above conditions may take place where dissolved silica
crystallizes out in the vicinity of calcite crystals due to local decreases in pH. The continuing consolidation of bSiO2/CaO
aggregates may be facilitated by the presence of increasing amounts of calcite. It appears that CaCO3 may act as a catalyst
leading to pene-contemporaneous bSiO2/CaO aggregate formation. However the processes involved require further work.

Analysis of the oxygen isotope composition (d18O) of diatom silica is a commonly used tool for palaeoclimate reconstruction that recent studies have demonstrated may be complicated by the presence of nondiatom detrital material. Such contamination can mask any true climate-driven signal, leading to spurious results. Analysis of the 2.6-Ma Barsemoi diatomites from the East African Rift Valley highlights the presence of both tephra and clay in purified samples. Here we present a new method for assessing the relative contribution and geochemical composition of contamination components where sedimentary samples may be affected by more than one type of contamination. This approach shows that the incorporation of analytical techniques, such as X-ray fluorescence spectrometry, coupled with statistical modelling, can be used to develop a three end-member model to successfully resolve climate-driven changes in d18Odiatom. Mass-balance corrections made to d18Odiatom data demonstrate the importance of adopting quantitative geochemical analysis in tandem with the d18O analysis of biogenic silica, to obtain accurate and meaningful results for palaeoclimate reconstruction.

Late Cenozoic climate history in Africa was punctuated by episodes of variability, characterized by the appearance and disappearance of large freshwater lakes within the East African Rift Valley. In the Baringo-Bogoria basin, a well-dated sequence of diatomites and fluviolacustrine sediments documents the precessionally forced cycling of an extensive lake system between 2.70 Ma and 2.55 Ma. One diatomite unit was studied, using the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica combined with X-ray fluorescence spectrometry and taxonomic assemblage changes, to explore the nature of climate variability during this interval. Data reveal a rapid onset and gradual decline of deepwater lake conditions, which exhibit millennial-scale cyclicity of ~1400–1700 yr, similar to late Quaternary Dansgaard-Oeschger events. These cycles are thought to reflect enhanced precipitation coincident with increased monsoonal strength, suggesting the existence of a teleconnection between the high latitudes and East Africa during this period. Such climatic variability could have affected faunal and floral evolution at the time.

Summary

1. Priority question exercises are becoming an increasingly common tool to frame future agendas in conservation and ecological science. They are an effective way to identify research foci that advance the field and that also have high policy and conservation relevance.

2. To date, there has been no coherent synthesis of key questions and priority research areas for palaeoecology,
which combines biological, geochemical and molecular techniques in order to reconstruct past ecological and environmental systems on time-scales from decades to millions of years.

3. We adapted a well-established methodology to identify 50 priority research questions in palaeoecology. Using a set of criteria designed to identify realistic and achievable research goals, we selected questions from a pool submitted by the international palaeoecology research community and relevant policy practitioners.

4. The integration of online participation, both before and during the workshop, increased international engagement in question selection.

5. The questions selected are structured around six themes: human–environment interactions in the Anthropocene; biodiversity, conservation and novel ecosystems; biodiversity over long time-scales; ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycling; comparing, combining and synthesizing information

from multiple records; and new developments in palaeoecology.
6. Future opportunities in palaeoecology are related to improved incorporation of uncertainty into reconstructions, an enhanced understanding of ecological and evolutionary dynamics and processes and the continued application of long-term data for better-informed landscape management.

7. Synthesis. Palaeoecology is a vibrant and thriving discipline, and these 50 priority questions highlight its potential for addressing both pure (e.g. ecological and evolutionary, methodological) and applied (e.g. environmental and conservation) issues related to ecological science and global change.

Key-words: Anthropocene, biodiversity, conservation, ecology and evolution, human–environment
interactions, long-term ecology, palaeoecology, palaeoecology and land-use history, research priorities,
Palaeo50

Tipping points – where systems shift radically and potentially
irreversibly into a different state – have received
considerable attention in ecology. Although there is
convincing evidence that human drivers can cause regime
shifts at local and regional scales, the increasingly
invoked concept of planetary scale tipping points in the
terrestrial biosphere remains unconfirmed. By evaluating
potential mechanisms and drivers, we conclude that
spatial heterogeneity in drivers and responses, and lack
of strong continental interconnectivity, probably induce
relatively smooth changes at the global scale, without an
expectation of marked tipping patterns. This implies that
identifying critical points along global continua of drivers
might be unfeasible and that characterizing global
biotic change with single aggregates is inapt.

Last Interglacial variability is commonly used as an analogue for variability in a future, warmer world. Pervasive cycles are increasingly apparent in Last Interglacial archives, although studies in continental regions are under-represented. Here we provide a new isotopic record of diatom silica (d18Odiatom) spanning c. 127.5e115 ka BP from Lake Baikal in central Asia. Peak rain-fed discharge occurred c. 125.4 ka BP, shortly after July insolation maximum and initiation of Siberian soil development. Between 127 and 119.7 ka BP there are six marked fluctuations in d18Odiatom values, with a pacing of approximately 1.26
0.3 ka, similar to fluctuations of within lake productivity. Fluctuations in d18Odiatom values show good agreement with patterns in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), supporting hypothesis of strong teleconnections via theWesterlies between the North Atlantic and central Asia. Two periods of low d18Odiatom values are especially notable. The earliest between c. 126.5 and 126 ka BP is concurrent with the final stages of the Heinrich 11. The second between 120.5 and 119.7 ka BP is also concurrent with an increase in ice-rafted debris in the North Atlantic. Aquatic productivity in Lake Baikal increased between 119.7 and 117.4 ka BP before declining to the top of the record (115 ka BP) concomitant with a shift to predominately cool steppe catchment vegetation. However, isotopic composition of discharge into Lake Baikal provides evidence for strong penetration of Westerlies into central Asia during the latter stages of the Last Interglacial. Variability in d18Odiatom values was compared between the Last Interglacial and the Holocene. Millennial-scale variability was significantly more stable during the Last Interglacial, possibly linked to diminished influence of freshwater discharge on AMOC during periods of higher, global mean temperatures

A palaeolimnological study of Lake Khall was undertaken to reconstruct impacts from five thousand years of climate change and human activity in the Ol’khon region of Lake Baikal. Taiga biome dominated regional landscapes, although significant compositional turnover occurred due to the expansion of eurythermic and drought resistant Scots pine. Climate during the mid-Holocene was wetter than the present, and Lake Khall was fresh, with abundant molluscs. By 4.4 cal ka BP, sedimentary geochemistry indicated a gradual change in lake water chemistry with an increase in lake salinity up to the present day, most likely controlled by groundwater influences. Vegetation turnover rate was highest between 2.75 and 2.48 cal ka BP, with the onset of drier, more continental climate, which resulted in an influx of aeolian particles to the lake. This abrupt shift was coincident with ice rafted debris event (IRD-2) in North Atlantic sediments and an attenuation of the East Asian summer monsoon. A second arid period occurred shortly afterwards (2.12e1.87 cal ka BP) which resulted in the decline in ostracod numbers, especially Candona sp. A rather more quiescent, warmer period followed, between 1.9 and 0.7 cal ka BP, with very little change in vegetation composition, and low amounts of detrital transfer from catchment to the lake. Peak reconstructed temperatures (and low amounts of annual precipitation) were concurrent with the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Between 0.77 and 0.45 cal ka BP, climate in the Ol’khon region became colder and wetter, although Lake Khall did not become fresher. Cold, wet conditions are seen at other sites around Lake Baikal, and therefore represent a regional response to the period concurrent with the Little Ice Age and IRD-0. After AD 1845 the region warms, and Pediastrum appears in the lake in high abundances for the first time. This increase is ascribed to nutrient enrichment in the lake, linked to the rapid increase in regional pastoral farming

A high-resolution (wevery 20 y) pollen and charcoal record from Erlongwan maar lake (EML) documents the vegetation history and fire activity of the Long Gang region (northeast China) over the past millennium. The ageedepth model is based on 137Cs, 210Pb measurements, and one calibrated 14C-AMS date at the base of the core. For much of the record, vegetation was dominated by a mixed conifer hardwood forest. Pollen and charcoal concentrations reveal considerable variability during the past 1000 years. Between 980 and 1500 AD both pollen and charcoal reached maximum concentrations (w1100 AD and 1300 AD respectively). The high pollen concentration was indicative of prevailing moist conditions during the period commonly referred to as the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA). The high concentration of charcoal indicated high frequency and intensity of wildfire during the MCA, probably linked to high biomass productivity and less snow in winter. Between 1500 and 1850 AD both pollen and charcoal concentrations were low, indicative of colder winters with higher snowfall, relative drier summers and less intensive wildfire, coincidence with the cold period commonly known as the Little Ice Age (LIA). During 1900e1950 AD year, the highest relative abundance of Artemisia and the lowest abundance of Pinus together with high concentration of charcoal indicated strong human activity. The pollen data are in broad agreement with a previous study from an adjacent lake, indicating regional rather than localized human impact.

Lake Xiaolongwan is a closed maar lake located in the Long Gang Volcanic Field, northeast China. Core XLW2 was collected in 2007 from the central region of the lake and provides a palaeoecological reconstruction over the past ca. 130 years (dated using radiometric methods: 210Pb and 137Cs). Diatom floristic changes and catchment productivity (carbon isotope ratios) were analysed within the core. Indicators of atmospheric pollution (XRF and SCP inventories) were also measured. Results show a marked transition from a dominant benthic assemblage to a planktonic one (increasing P:B ratios) starting after ca. 1940 AD, becoming most prominent after ca. 1980 AD (P:B > 1). Most notable floristic changes result from the increase in the planktonic species Discostella woltereckii. These changes are concomitant with increased temperature trends from the region and reconstructed temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. SCP concentrations and flux rates also increase after ca. 1950 AD, with highest values seen at ca. 1980 AD after which values decline. Normalised elemental geochemistry (e.g. Pb/Ti) also show marked changes after ca. 1970 AD, most likely derived from atmospheric deposition of Pb. The recent increase in D. woltereckii precedes anthropogenic contamination (Pb/Ti) at the site and persists after the decline in SCP concentrations. This suggests that the recent increases are driven by increased mean annual temperature trends. These temperature trends may be manifested as changes in ice cover persistence, a longer growing season and/or increased DOC at Lake Xiaolongwan: conditions for which planktonic species have a more competitive advantage

Carbon isotope ratio (d13C) values are an important proxy for reconstructing environmental change from lakes, such as changes in temperature, precipitation patterns and evaporation. These changes are all indirectly linked to the carbon cycle (Leng and Marshall, 2004). However, interpretation of d13C (d13Corg) from bulk organic matter (OM) in lake sediments is complex and dependent on many factors. It is commonly used in palaeolimnological studies to determine OM sources in a lake, eg allochthonous vs.

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) not only plays an important role within the Asian climate system, but also carries cold air from the high northern latitudes across the Equator to the Southern Hemisphere, acting as a link between the polar and tropical climate systems. However, past changes of the EAWM have not been clearly established so far due to the lack of suitable proxy records. Here, we at first establish an index of the EAWM by comparing the results of a sediment trap experiment and 100-year sedimentary record from Huguang Maar Lake (HML) with modern records of the EAWM, Siberian High (SH) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Secondly, we present a continuous record of the strength of the EAWM for the past 14,500 years based on sedimentary diatom assemblages in HML. The record is derived from fluctuations in the relative abundance of two planktonic diatom species. The link with the EAWM intensity is through high wind speeds inducing turbulent mixing, which stimulates the productivity of the meroplanktonic species Aulacoseira granulata. The diatom record of the past 14,500 years shows that the EAWM shifted from strong to weak from the early to late Holocene. This linked to both changes in winter temperature at high-latitudes and in El Niño conditions in the tropics. Our record shows that the EAWM and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) as recorded in stalagmites, were in-phase instead of anti-correlated on orbital time scales during the Holocene. On a millennial time scales, the EAWM was anti-phase with the EASM during the Last Glacial–Holocene transition. However, during the early–middle Holocene the relationship between the EAWM and EASM shows spatial variations. In northern China, the records show significant anti-phase, but in southern China the anti-phase was not observed. During the late Holocene, we did not find any clear relationship between the EAWM and EASM. We also explored the link between the EAWM and the Australian summer monsoon (ASM). Anti-phase of the ASM with summer insolation in the Southern Hemisphere is an enigmatic exception that cannot be explained by the classic theory of insolation. During early Holocene the EAWM was in-phase with the Australian summer monsoon (ASM), which provides the first direct evidence to support the hypothesis that the intensity of the EAWM affected, at least in part, the strength of the ASM.► We present a sedimentary diatom record of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). ► The EAWM shifted from strong to weak from the early to late Holocene. ► The winter and summer monsoons were not anti-correlated on orbital time scale. ► On a millennial time scale, their correlation shows spatial and temporal variability. ► Our record supports the idea of the EAWM affecting the Australian summer monsoon.

Boreal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, and severe ecological impacts in the near future are virtually certain to occur. We undertook a multiproxy study on an alpine lake (ESM-1) at the modern tree-line in boreal, southern Siberia. Steppe and tundra biomes were extensive in eastern Sayan landscapes during the early Holocene. Boreal forest quickly expanded by 9.1 ka BP, and dominated the landscape until c 0.7 ka BP, when the greatest period of compositional turnover occurred. At this time, alpine meadow landscape expanded and Picea obovata colonised new habitats along river valleys and lake shorelines, because of prevailing cool, moist conditions. During the early Holocene, chironomid assemblages were dominated by cold stenotherms. Diatoms for much of the Holocene were dominated by alkaliphilous, fragilarioid taxa, up until 0.2 ka BP, when epiphytic species expanded, indicative of increased habitat availability. C/N mass ratios ranged between 9.5 and 13.5 (11.1–15.8 C/N atomic ratios), indicative of algal communities dominating organic matter contributions to bottom sediments with small, persistent contributions from vascular plants. However, δ13C values increased steadily from −34.9‰ during the early Holocene (9.3 ka BP) to −24.8‰ by 0.6 ka BP. This large shift in magnitude may be due to a number of factors, including increasing within-lake productivity, increasing disequilibrium between the isotopic balance of the lake with the atmosphere as the lake became isotopically ‘mature’, and declining soil respiration linked to small, but distinct retreat in forest biomes. The influence of climatic variables on landscape vegetation was assessed using redundancy analysis (RDA), a linear, direct ordination technique. Changes in July insolation at 60 °N significantly explained over one-fifth of the variation in species composition, while changes in estimates of northern hemisphere temperature and ice-rafted debris events in the North Atlantic were also significant, but considerably less important. The potential importance of climate and biome development (tundra, steppe, cold deciduous forest and taiga) on different trophic levels (i.e. chironomid and diatom communities) in lake ESM-1 was also assessed using RDA. Climate predictors had a more significant influence on Holocene chironomid assemblages, especially July insolation at 60 °N, estimates of regional precipitation and estimates of northern hemisphere temperature, while only the development of the taiga biome had a significant impact on these primary consumers. Diatom communities also had a small, but significant influence on Holocene chironomid populations, perhaps linked to variation in faunal feeding strategies. In contrast, climatic and biome predictors explained similar amounts of variation in the Holocene diatom assemblage (approximately 20% each), while chironomids themselves as predictors explained just under 7% of diatom variation. Lake acidity was inferred using a diatom inference model. Results suggest that after deglaciation, the lake did not undergo a process of gradual acidification, most likely due to the presence of continuous permafrost and low levels of precipitation, preventing base cations and dissolved organic carbon entering the lake (except for the period between 1.7 and 0.7 ka BP). We conclude that lakes in continental, boreal regions undergo different models of lake ontogeny than oceanic boreal regions. Unlike other regions discussed, climate is a more important driver of ecosystem change than catchment changes. We also demonstrate that the start of the period coincident with the onset of the Little Ice Age resulted in important thresholds crossed in catchment vegetation and aquatic communities.

Past environmental changes based on diatom relative abundances have been inferred from the maar Lake Erlongwan in northeast China. The limnology of Lake Erlongwan is affected by the strongly seasonal regional climate. The composition of diatom assemblages, in turn, responds to changes in the seasonal duration of ice cover in winter, water-column turnover in spring and autumn, and thermal stratification in summer. Statistical analysis of the sedimentary diatom assemblages reveals three significant stratigraphic zones over the past 1000 yr. The highest abundance of the planktonic species Discostella species occurs between AD 1050 and 1400 and suggests an annual ice-free period of long duration and well-developed summer stratification of the water column. This planktonic diatom peak between ca. AD 1150 and 1200 suggests that this period was the warmest over the past 1000 yr. The interval between AD 1400 and 1800 is marked by a decline in planktonic diatoms and suggests shorter duration of the ice-free season, weaker water stratification and possibly generally cold conditions. After AD 1800 relative abundances of planktonic diatoms, including Puncticulata praetermissa and Asterionella formosa, increase again, which indicates lengthening of the duration of the annual ice-free period and a stronger overturn of the water column. All these data imply that the pattern of the seasons is different between the MWP and the 20th century.

The principal aim of this study was to disentangle hydrochemical influences on primary producers in a pristine, flood-pulse ecosystem. This was undertaken by analysing diatoms from 100 sample points from hydrologically distinct regions in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Cluster analysis was undertaken using two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN), and groups used to classify sample points in a principal components analysis (PCA) biplot. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was performed using hydrological data and diatom guilds as explanatory variables. A series of ordinations using redundancy analysis (RDA) was undertaken to assess which variables significantly accounted for diatom variation across the Delta. Species-response curves for major taxa were generated using generalized additive models (GAMs). Cluster analysis revealed six distinct groups. Groups 5 and 6 consisted mainly of seasonally inundated floodplain sites, which lay at one end of a significant gradient revealed by PCA. Floodplain diatoms were characteristically N-heterotrophs, requiring elevated concentrations of key resources such as total nitrogen (TN) and SiO2. Using forward selection, constrained RDA reveals five variables were significant in explaining diatom distributions across the Delta: hydroperiod class, flood frequency, flow velocity and nutrients SiO2 and TN. Species-response curves show that motile diatoms were most abundant in seasonally inundated floodplains. Species diversity was significantly higher in the upper Panhandle region of the Delta, which may be related to moderate levels of disturbance and increased resource limitation. Species diversity was significantly lower during the period of maximum flood extent, which may in turn be related to fewer limiting resources.

Summary:

1. Flood-pulsed wetlands make vital contributions to local and global biodiversity. However, the patterns and controls of spatial and temporal variation in aquatic biodiversity in flood-pulsed wetlands are not well understood. We analysed the relationship between variation in hydrological regime and the patterns of aquatic biodiversity in a large pristine flood-pulsed wetland, the Okavango Delta, Botswana.

2. Surveys of water chemistry, diatoms and macroinvertebrates were conducted over the seasonal phases of the flood pulse. Hydrological variables of flood frequency and hydroperiod class were collated from 16 years of satellite images. Multivariate regression trees and generalised least squares regression were used to determine the chief controls of community composition and taxon richness.

3. Hydroperiod class, phase of the flood and conductivity explained 32% and 43% of the variation in diatom and invertebrate taxon richness, respectively. There was a negative relationship between hydroperiod class and invertebrate taxon richness on the rising, peak and receding flood, whereas at low flood there was no significant relationship. Multivariate regression tree analysis revealed hydroperiod class, phase of the flood and conductivity as the dominant forces shaping invertebrate and diatom community composition.

4. Seasonal and spatial variation in hydrological conditions are the principal drivers of variation in aquatic biodiversity in flood-pulsed wetlands. In pristine flood-pulsed wetlands, increased productivity caused by the arrival of the flood waters appears to override disturbance and connectivity in shaping taxon richness and community composition. Thus, these data suggest that the maintenance of a rich mosaic of habitats covering a broad range of hydroperiod is the key to preserving aquatic biodiversity and natural ecosystem function in flood-pulsed wetlands"

The annual flood pulse in the Okavango Delta (Botswana), has a major influence on water chemistry and habitat. We explore spatial and temporal patterns in a suite of chemical variables, analysed from 98 sample points, across four regions, taken at different stages of the flood cycle. The major pattern in water chemistry is characterised by an increasing gradient in ionic concentration from deep-water sites in the Panhandle to more shallow, distal regions to the south. Concentrations of cations, anions, dissolved organic carbon, and SiO2 are significantly higher in the seasonally inundated floodplains than in permanently flooded regions. Several variables (including Na and total nitrogen) significantly increase from low flood to high flood, while others (including HCO3, SiO2, and Cl) increase in concentration, initially between low flood and flood expansion, before declining at maximum flood extent. Redundancy analysis (RDA) revealed that hydrological variables (water depth, flow velocity, flood frequency, and hydroperiod class) significantly explain 17% variation in surface water chemistry. Predictions of increasing flood volume in the near future may result in a decline in alkalinity and dilution of DOC. Our study provides an important baseline from which to monitor future change in the Delta.

We present a new palaeoenvironmental record of hydrological variability in Lake Baikal, based on re-modelled δ18Odiatom values of diatom silica (δ18Omodelled), where the residual contaminants are identified and compensated for using electron optical imaging and whole-sample geochemistry. δ18Omodelled interpretations are based on the balance between rivers with high δ18O values and rivers with low δ18O values. Isotopic variability is related to latitudinal differences in precipitation which feed these rivers. The δ18Omodelled record suggests that rather moist conditions prevailed in the Lake Baikal region during the latter stages of the Younger Dryas. Throughout the Holocene, episodes of low δ18Omodelled values are, in general, in good agreement with increases in percentage haematite-stained grains in North Atlantic sediments (indicative of ice-rafted debris events). Rivers with southerly catchments dominate fluvial input especially between c. 3.3 and 2 cal ka BP, concurrent with high precipitation in the Lake Baikal region.

Rapid population growth and economic development have led to increased anthropogenic pressures on the Tibetan Plateau, causing significant land cover changes with potentially severe ecological consequences. To assess whether or not these pressures are also affecting the remote montane-boreal lakes on the SE Tibetan Plateau, fossil pollen and diatom data from two lakes were synthesized. The interplay of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem response was explored in respect to climate variability and human activity over the past 200 years. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling and Procrustes rotation analysis were undertaken to determine whether pollen and diatom responses in each lake were similar and synchronous. Detrended canonical correspondence analysis was used to develop quantitative estimates of compositional species turnover. Despite instrumental evidence of significant climatic warming on the southeastern Plateau, the pollen and diatom records indicate very stable species composition throughout their profiles and show only very subtle responses to environmental changes over the past 200 years. The compositional species turnover (0.36–0.94 SD) is relatively low in comparison to the species reorganizations known from the periods during the mid- and early-Holocene (0.64–1.61 SD) on the SE Plateau, and also in comparison to turnover rates of sediment records from climate-sensitive regions in the circum arctic. Our results indicate that climatically induced ecological thresholds are not yet crossed, but that human activity has an increasing influence, particularly on the terrestrial ecosystem in our study area. Synergistic processes of post-Little Ice Age warming, 20th century climate warming and extensive reforestations since the 19th century have initiated a change from natural oak-pine forests to seminatural, likely less resilient pine-oak forests. Further warming and anthropogenic disturbances would possibly exceed the ecological threshold of these ecosystems and lead to severe ecological consequences

A general mean annual temperature increase accompanied with substantial glacial retreat has been noted on the Tibetan Plateau during the last two centuries but most significantly since the mid 1950s. These climate trends are particularly apparent on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, the Tibetan Plateau (due to its heterogeneous mountain landscape) has very complex and spatially differing temperature and precipitations patterns. As a result, intensive palaeolimnological investigations are necessary to decipher these climatic patterns and to understand ecological responses to recent environmental change. Here we present palaeolimnological results from a 210Pb/137Cs-dated sediment core spanning approximately the last 200 years from a remote high-mountain lake (LC6 Lake, working name) on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Sediment profiles of diatoms, organic variables (TOC, C:N) and grain size were investigated. The 210Pb record suggests a period of rapid sedimentation, which might be linked to major tectonic events in the region ca. 1950. Furthermore, unusually high 210Pb supply rates over the last 50 years suggest that the lake has possibly been subjected to increasing precipitation rates, sediment focussing and/or increased spring thaw. The majority of diatom taxa encountered in the core are typical of slightly acidic to circumneutral, oligotrophic, electrolyte-poor lakes. Diatom species assemblages were rich, and dominated by Cyclotella sp., Achnanthes sp., Aulacoseira sp. and fragilarioid taxa. Diatom compositional change was minimal over the 200-year period (DCCA = 0.85 SD, p = 0.59); only a slightly more diverse but unstable diatom assemblage was recorded during the past 50 years. The results indicate that large-scale environmental changes recorded in the twentieth century (i.e. increased precipitation and temperatures) are likely having an affect on the LC6 Lake, but so far these impacts are more apparent on the lake geochemistry than on the diatom flora. Local and/or regional peculiarities, such as increasing precipitation and cloud cover, or localized climatic phenomena, such as negative climate feedbacks, might have offset the effects of increasing mean surface temperatures.

Climate change is likely to have major implications for wetland ecosystems, which will include altered water level regimes due to modifications in local and catchment hydrology. However, substantial uncertainty exists in the precise impacts of climate change on wetlands due in part to uncertainty in GCM projections. This paper explores the impacts of climate change upon river discharge within three sub-catchments of Loktak Lake, an internationally important wetland in northeast India. This is achieved by running pattern-scaled GCM output through distributed hydrological models (developed using MIKE SHE) of each sub-catchment. The impacts of climate change upon water levels within Loktak Lake are subsequently investigated using a water balance model. Two groups of climate change scenarios are investigated. Group 1 uses results from seven different GCMs for an increase in global mean temperature of 2 °C, the purported threshold of ''dangerous'' climate change, whilst Group 2 is based on results from the HadCM3 GCM for increases in global mean temperature between 1 °C and 6 °C. Results from the Group 1 scenarios show varying responses between the three sub-catchments. The majority of scenario-sub-catchment combinations (13 out of 21) indicate increases in discharge which vary from <1% to 42% although, in some cases, discharge decreases by as much as 20%. Six of the GCMs suggest overall increases in river flow to Loktak Lake (2–27%) whilst the other results in a modest (6%) decline. In contrast, the Group 2 scenarios lead to an almost linear increase in total river flow to Loktak Lake with increasing temperature (up to 27% for 6 °C), although two sub-catchments experience reductions in mean discharge for the smallest temperature increases. In all but one Group 1 scenario, and all the Group 2 scenarios, Loktak Lake water levels are higher, regularly reaching the top of a downstream hydropower barrage that impounds the lake and necessitating the release of water for barrage structural stability. Although elevated water levels may permit enhanced abstraction for irrigation and domestic uses, future increases in hydropower generation are limited by existing infrastructure. The higher water levels are likely to exacerbate existing ecological deterioration within the lake as well as enhancing problems of flooding of lakeside communities.

Tropical alpine areas may be highly sensitive to climate change. Yet, because high-resolution palaeoenvironmental studies in these regions are scant, patterns of environmental change over the last few centuries, and linkages with regional changes, remain poorly resolved. This article presents a 400-year palaeolimnological record from Lower Kitandara Lake (3,989 m above m.a.s.l.), located in the Rwenzori Mountains of Uganda, where marked glacial recession has been recorded over much of the twentieth century. An age model is produced for a 57.5 cm sediment core based on 210Pb and 14C dating, suggesting a basal date of approximately 1600 AD. Diatom and organic geochemistry (%TOC, C/N ratios, δ13C) analyses are carried out at an approximately decadal resolution. Twentieth-century glacial recession does not appear to have significantly impacted either the diatom or geochemical records. However, large ecological changes have occurred during the past 400 years, particularly shown by the diatom fluxes and geochemical data. Throughout the core, the diatom record reveals only minor changes in assemblage composition, which may be related to the dominance of Staurosira construens var. venter in the lake's diatom flora, a tychoplanktonic taxon which is highly adaptive to environmental change. Geochemical analyses, however, reveal a marked change at around the end of the eighteenth century, when C/N ratios suggest an increase in the dominance of algal aquatic sources to lacustrine organic matter, concomitant with a stabilisation of catchment inputs and increased diatom productivity, which may have been caused by reduced glacial inputs. The relationship between these changes at Lower Kitandara Lake and wider regional climate change that occurred at the end of the eighteenth century is not well understood, but this study highlights the need for additional research to link drivers of alpine ecosystem change with those operating at low altitudes

Until recently, little attention has been devoted to palaeoclimate records in western Central Asia although the potential for improving our understanding of the connections between local and regional climate changes in this region is high. The location of the Aral Sea in the heart of western Central Asia offers a unique opportunity to scrutinise palaeoenvironmental changes during the Holocene, and particularly over the last few thousand years, in a region that is dominated by a continental climate regime and is relatively isolated from the monsoons to the south and southeast. Aral Sea sediments provide an excellent opportunity for high-resolution studies of past climatic and hydrological changes in the catchment area. We review recent palaeoenvironmental work in the region and focus on recent investigations on core material from the Aral Sea that details marked ‘sea level’ oscillations over the past ca. 2000 years as the Aral responded to local climate forcing. Furthermore, archaeological and digital terrain modelling reveal that the previously proposed mid-Holocene highstand of the Aral Sea at 72–73 m a.s.l. cannot have been achieved, a revised Holocene highstand is set at about 54–55 m a.s.l.

Borg Indrepollen is a coastal lake on the island of Vestvågøy, Lofoten, NW Norway. A sedimentary sequence spanning the last 4500 cal. yr BP was analysed for diatom, C/N and stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N). The record provides clear evidence of glacio-isostatic rebound in the Lofoten region. Five distinct lithostratigraphic- geochemical zones (I–V) and four major diatom zones (A–D) were identified. The early record (I–III, A–Biii; 4500–550 cal. yr BP) contains coarse sedimentary material and diatoms indicative of more marine conditions. The correlation between the isotopic data (high δ13C and low C/N) and trends in the biological data (marine/brackish flora) suggest the marine influence on the Indrepollen basin is a controlling factor of the source of organic material. The latter part of the record (IV, C; 550 cal. yr 550–226) indicates a transitional phase from marine-dominated diatom to brackish taxa and is coincident with a section of microlaminations in the core. The youngest zone (V, D; 226 cal. yr BP–present) is indicative of an isolated basin, with the deposition of fine sediments; freshwater diatom taxa dominate the biological record and δ13C are indicative of freshwater conditions. C/N suggests a shift to a terrestrial source of organic matter. The proxies show a transition from full marine conditions, when Indrepollen was a submerged fjord, to more freshwater, lacustrine conditions in the last 200 years. The record of land uplift from Borg Indrepollen mirrors changes in sedimentary records from across Northern Norway and relative sea-level curves for the region.

Detailed stratigraphic analyses of sediments deposited in Lake Botjärnen, a small boreal forest lake in the shield terrain of central Sweden, clearly reflect progressively increasing human impact on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems following settlement and establishment of an iron industry in the 17th century. Rising frequencies of pollen and spores from light-demanding plants provide evidence of extensive forest clearance for charcoal and timber production, which peaked in the early 20th century. An associated increase in catchment erosion is reflected by changing carbon and nitrogen elemental content and carbon–isotope composition of sediment organic matter and by increased magnetic susceptibility of the sediments. Records of air-borne pollutants (lead, zinc and sulphur) can be correlated to the development of local and regional mining and metal industry as inferred from historical accounts. Rapid recession of the iron industry led to re-forestation and recovery of the aquatic nutrient status to pre-industrial conditions over the past 100 years. The chronology of the sediment succession, which is based on 210Pb and 137Cs radionuclide data in combination with radiocarbon dating, is confirmed by historical lead pollution trends established for the region.