Foreign Policy by Luke Maier
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Compared to traditional rational and neorealist models of alliance formation, a presidential
and ... more Compared to traditional rational and neorealist models of alliance formation, a presidential
and bureaucratic politics perspective better describes why NATO expanded
its membership in 1999 and 2004. Presidential and electoral politics largely drove the
1999 expansion, whereas bureaucratic inertia prevailed in the latter 2004 expansion.
Rushed by institutional momentum and distracted by 9/11, U.S. support for the 2004
ascension of the Baltic States resulted in a suboptimal strategy that placed Russia in
a structurally unstable situation. Russia’s activities in Georgia, Moldova, and most
recently Ukraine can to some extent be traced back to threatening signals and insecurities
incurred when NATO expanded to the Baltic. Looking back, while the combination
of the presidential politics and bureaucratic politics models provide a superior
description of why NATO expanded, the realist and rationalist frameworks arguably
would have prescribed a better strategy. U.S. policymakers should be more reticent of
using alliances to promote democracy and other ideals in lieu of security necessities.
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Duke Political Science Standard, May 2013
ABSTRACT: In the infancy of democratic regime theory, David Hume and le Barron de Montesquieu off... more ABSTRACT: In the infancy of democratic regime theory, David Hume and le Barron de Montesquieu offered two conflicting blueprints for how republics should be constructed. While Montesquieu’s thesis pervaded democratic theory for most of the 18th century, it was swiftly and thoroughly overthrown by Hume’s thesis when bold American statesmen established the world’s most experimental regime: a broad federalist republic. Historians have largely overlooked the profound influence Montesquieu and Hume exerted on the development of the republican structure of the United States. Drawing from primary sources and prominent relevant literature, this paper offers a novel analysis of why the revolutionary framers initially clung to Montesquieu’s thesis, and why, later, the constitutional framers embraced Hume’s alternative. The paper traces artifacts of these influences in various times of American History and how they demonstrate the resilience of the federalist republic. This shift in democratic regime theory should be analyzed in order to better understand the origins of the adventurous and wide-reaching federalism of United States.
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There are two moments of particular salience when social worlds, computational methods, and inter... more There are two moments of particular salience when social worlds, computational methods, and international security coincide. The first is in the formation of identity or, as modelers may have it, in the modeling of agents. The second is examining the context or space in which the agents inhere. In this paper we utilize extant theories of international relations as
identities for states involved in a dyadic deterrent game. These identities provide rules by which actors behave, choose moves, react to the moves of the other agent, and through co-constitutive intersubjectivity reproduce the space that is both created through their action/reaction while simultaneously constraining their action. In what follows we explore the theories of social constructivism in IR theory as they pertain to deterrence theory, we then look specifically at how agents are modeled/constructed and then how the space is modeled/constructed. The expression of these theoreticisms through algorithms and formalisms will be explored after the theoretical construct has taken place.
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Environment by Luke Maier
Natural resource wealth can be both a blessing and a curse for countries. Past research found tha... more Natural resource wealth can be both a blessing and a curse for countries. Past research found that exporting some commodities increases political instability, while exporting others decreases it. This presents a conundrum: why do commodities have such divergent effects on political instability? Existing literature on this topic suffers from theoretical under-specification and empirical mis-specification. This thesis presents a causal model (visualized below), which posits a commodity’s effect on a country’s instability depends on how revenues from the commodity are distributed and how volatile these revenues are. A machine learning method is applied to measure how much instability varies when exports of 57 primary commodities change rapidly. Ten commodities—notably, many from agriculture—are found to have strong effects on instability. Since 2000, commodities that significantly affect political stability have accounted for a growing share of global GDP, which suggests future research should focus more on this potentially expanding source of instability.
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Mote Technical Report No. 1723, Dec 2013
Many coastal communities across the United States are beginning to plan for climate-related sea l... more Many coastal communities across the United States are beginning to plan for climate-related sea level rise. While impacts and solutions will vary with local conditions, jurisdictions which have begun this process seem to pass through three common stages when developing policy for local sea level rise adaptation: 1) building awareness about local sea level rise threats, 2) undertaking analyses of local vulnerabilities, and 3) developing plans and policies to deal with these vulnerabilities. The purpose of this paper is to help advance community dialogue and further inform local decision-makers about key elements and steps for addressing climate-related sea level rise. It summarizes the results of a project the Marine Policy Institute (MPI) undertook during 2011-12 to review experiences from fourteen U.S. coastal jurisdictions representing a variety of city, county, and state efforts with sea level adaptation. There are many more initiatives underway than those reflected in this sample, but the “focus jurisdictions” were selected because of the extensive information publically available on their experiences and lessons being learned that could provide insights for coastal communities, especially in Southwest Florida.
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The evolution and modern value of Singapore’s urban canals underlies its developmental history an... more The evolution and modern value of Singapore’s urban canals underlies its developmental history and future. As Singapore pursues increasingly ambitious development goals, the City in a Garden’s urban canal system continues to evolve to address new challenges including population growth and intensifying land limitations. Singapore faces many water-related vulnerabilities ranging from flooding to supply scarcity that stem from the city-state’s rapid urbanization, population growth, biophysical limitations, and other political circumstances. Singapore uses its urban canal system as a vehicle to mitigate these vulnerabilities and ensure water does not limit the young nation’s economic growth. To understand the past and future of this crucial enabler of development, this paper seeks to 1) provide background on role and hydrodynamics of urban water, 2) describe the history of the canal network, 3) identify the effects of urbanization on water resources, 4) describe contemporary programs (specifically the ABC and 3P programs) which seek to enhance the canal system, and 5) use a value framework to identify the potential values urban canals offer. This effort is informed by first-hand observations recorded during three weeks of travelling in Singapore and interacting with relevant decision makers; additional information is drawn from publications of governmental bodies and academia. Overall, this paper aims to provide insights into the past, present, and future trajectories of Singapore’s canal system and its path toward implementing a sustainable land-use planning model.
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Climate-driven sea level rise (SLR) will affect wetland flora and fauna in various—mostly negativ... more Climate-driven sea level rise (SLR) will affect wetland flora and fauna in various—mostly negative—ways. While ample reviews and case studies examine the geomorphic and species-specific impacts of SLR on wetlands, to date, there seems to be no cohesive overview of how SLR will drive adaptive responses among coastal wetland species. By examining the research on relatively well-studied species, this technical overview for coastal planners aims to distill themes in how wetland flora and fauna will be impacted by and respond to future SLR. Wetland vegetation will likely respond by vertically or horizontally tracking niche optimums (mainly elevation and salinity), though some flora populations (especially coastal trees) will be less mobile and more likely to substantially decline by 2100. Wetland vertebrates and macrofauna will be more physically able to retreat or shift ranges to cope with SLR. However, compounding influences from habitat loss will contribute to declines in these fauna populations, especially on islands. Current research offers few conclusions about the responses of invertebrates and microfauna. Overall, SLR-induced changes in coastal wetlands will lower biodiversity and productivity in these ecologically and economically significant ecosystems.
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Abstract: Throughout history, wars have harmed human populations by inflicting immediate casualti... more Abstract: Throughout history, wars have harmed human populations by inflicting immediate casualties and reverberating environmental destruction. The international community increasingly recognizes the risks from environmental damage, and as a result mammoth inter-national initiatives have attempted to curb sources of environmental destruction. Yet so far, global environmental progress is unimpressive. To what extent does experiencing war impair nations from contributing to global environmental progress? The research presented here used 10 years of national-level data for 161 nations and 25 wars to quantify the global aver-age causal effect of war on ten indicators of progress toward global environmental policy goals (referred to as ‘environmental progress’). The results indicate wars severely damage biodiversity, habitats, and—most significantly—environmental health conditions. The results also found warfare is increasingly harming ecological vitality. These findings suggest international actors should 1) expand efforts to stabilize environmental health factors in territories that recently experienced war and 2) increase initiatives that foster ecological resilience in conflict-prone states.
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Co-authored by Luke Maier and Chad Lord.
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Despite substantial efforts, scholarly research has reached no consensus on how water scarcity ca... more Despite substantial efforts, scholarly research has reached no consensus on how water scarcity can effect violent conflict. Robust conclusions have not been reached because existing research has not adequately accounted for the complexity of the relationship of water and social stability. Many preconditions and intervening factors interact with a community’s vulnerability to water security threats, and these factors must be identified, operationalized, and studied in order to better understand the complex causal pathway that leads from changes in water availability to effects on conflict.
This review highlights this under-specification of existing research by grouping the literature into three lines of hypotheses differentiated by their independent variable. Each has been supported by notable research, though their predictions are contradictory. In all models, violent conflict is the dependent variable, but various other variables are intervening steps in the road from water scarcity to violence.
From a literature synthesis, we created the conceptual model on the next page that describes the possible intervening variables at play in each of these hypotheses. Some of these intervening processes were tangentially identified in previous research, but most were mentioned only anecdotally or were not analyzed rigorously enough to yield generalizable conclusions for policymakers.
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Memos by Luke Maier
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Executive Summary: U.S. military conflicts against weak and non-state actors have become increas... more Executive Summary: U.S. military conflicts against weak and non-state actors have become increasingly long quagmires. In large part, this occurs because strategists rely too heavily on rational models of conflict. Rationalist methods of assessing strategic and tactical decisions fail to account for the non-linear nature of unconventional and irregular conflict, as well as rapid shifts in domestic approval. U.S. leaders’ sensitivity to public opinion reinforces their tendency to risk as few resources as possible in ending conflicts abroad. Compounded with their underestimation of the amount of resources necessary for victory, this causes the U.S. to under-commit in unconventional conflicts. U.S. operations with suboptimal resource levels will take longer to achieve their objectives. National strategists can better estimate the cost of winning unconventional conflicts if they use non-linear analysis techniques and become more reticent of the shortcomings of rational models.
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Drafts by Luke Maier
This paper presents a model that forecasts the two-party popular vote in U.S. presidential electi... more This paper presents a model that forecasts the two-party popular vote in U.S. presidential elections using pre-election polls and weighted GDP data.
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Foreign Policy by Luke Maier
and bureaucratic politics perspective better describes why NATO expanded
its membership in 1999 and 2004. Presidential and electoral politics largely drove the
1999 expansion, whereas bureaucratic inertia prevailed in the latter 2004 expansion.
Rushed by institutional momentum and distracted by 9/11, U.S. support for the 2004
ascension of the Baltic States resulted in a suboptimal strategy that placed Russia in
a structurally unstable situation. Russia’s activities in Georgia, Moldova, and most
recently Ukraine can to some extent be traced back to threatening signals and insecurities
incurred when NATO expanded to the Baltic. Looking back, while the combination
of the presidential politics and bureaucratic politics models provide a superior
description of why NATO expanded, the realist and rationalist frameworks arguably
would have prescribed a better strategy. U.S. policymakers should be more reticent of
using alliances to promote democracy and other ideals in lieu of security necessities.
identities for states involved in a dyadic deterrent game. These identities provide rules by which actors behave, choose moves, react to the moves of the other agent, and through co-constitutive intersubjectivity reproduce the space that is both created through their action/reaction while simultaneously constraining their action. In what follows we explore the theories of social constructivism in IR theory as they pertain to deterrence theory, we then look specifically at how agents are modeled/constructed and then how the space is modeled/constructed. The expression of these theoreticisms through algorithms and formalisms will be explored after the theoretical construct has taken place.
Environment by Luke Maier
This review highlights this under-specification of existing research by grouping the literature into three lines of hypotheses differentiated by their independent variable. Each has been supported by notable research, though their predictions are contradictory. In all models, violent conflict is the dependent variable, but various other variables are intervening steps in the road from water scarcity to violence.
From a literature synthesis, we created the conceptual model on the next page that describes the possible intervening variables at play in each of these hypotheses. Some of these intervening processes were tangentially identified in previous research, but most were mentioned only anecdotally or were not analyzed rigorously enough to yield generalizable conclusions for policymakers.
Memos by Luke Maier
Drafts by Luke Maier
and bureaucratic politics perspective better describes why NATO expanded
its membership in 1999 and 2004. Presidential and electoral politics largely drove the
1999 expansion, whereas bureaucratic inertia prevailed in the latter 2004 expansion.
Rushed by institutional momentum and distracted by 9/11, U.S. support for the 2004
ascension of the Baltic States resulted in a suboptimal strategy that placed Russia in
a structurally unstable situation. Russia’s activities in Georgia, Moldova, and most
recently Ukraine can to some extent be traced back to threatening signals and insecurities
incurred when NATO expanded to the Baltic. Looking back, while the combination
of the presidential politics and bureaucratic politics models provide a superior
description of why NATO expanded, the realist and rationalist frameworks arguably
would have prescribed a better strategy. U.S. policymakers should be more reticent of
using alliances to promote democracy and other ideals in lieu of security necessities.
identities for states involved in a dyadic deterrent game. These identities provide rules by which actors behave, choose moves, react to the moves of the other agent, and through co-constitutive intersubjectivity reproduce the space that is both created through their action/reaction while simultaneously constraining their action. In what follows we explore the theories of social constructivism in IR theory as they pertain to deterrence theory, we then look specifically at how agents are modeled/constructed and then how the space is modeled/constructed. The expression of these theoreticisms through algorithms and formalisms will be explored after the theoretical construct has taken place.
This review highlights this under-specification of existing research by grouping the literature into three lines of hypotheses differentiated by their independent variable. Each has been supported by notable research, though their predictions are contradictory. In all models, violent conflict is the dependent variable, but various other variables are intervening steps in the road from water scarcity to violence.
From a literature synthesis, we created the conceptual model on the next page that describes the possible intervening variables at play in each of these hypotheses. Some of these intervening processes were tangentially identified in previous research, but most were mentioned only anecdotally or were not analyzed rigorously enough to yield generalizable conclusions for policymakers.