RU2716582C2 - Method of determining risk of air pollution in moscow by combustion products formed during peat-bog fires - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: fire-fighting equipment.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to methods of determining risk of natural disasters associated with large-scale weather and climatic anomalies. Method consists in that by meteorological data, without creation of a specialized observation network, a share of the area of peat bogs in the territory surrounding Moscow (from 54^th to 58^th latitude and from 32^nd to 42^nd longitude) is determined, where due to peat humidity reduction there are conditions for its ignition, and then risk level of air pollution in Moscow is determined as high, if more than 75 % of bogs are in fire-hazardous condition, as above average, if more than 50–75 % of bogs are in fire-hazardous condition, as below average, if more than 25–50 % of bogs are in fire-hazardous condition, and as low, if less than 25 % of bogs are in fire-hazardous condition.

EFFECT: invention is intended to determine risk of air pollution in Moscow by combustion products generated during peat fires.

1 cl, 1 dwg

Description

FIELD OF TECHNOLOGY

The present invention relates to the field of methods for determining the risk of natural disasters associated with large-scale weather and climate anomalies, and more particularly, to methods for determining the risk of natural hazards of a significant scale, which may result in a threat to human life and health. Dangerous natural phenomena of this kind include peat fires. In peat fires over a long period of time, a large amount of pollutants that adversely affect human health are emitted into the atmosphere [1-3], which can be transported over long distances [4] and pose a threat to the health of urban residents. The problem of determining the risk of air pollution from combustion products from peat fires is especially acute for Moscow: firstly, because of the swampiness of the territory surrounding Moscow, and secondly, because of the large number of people whose health will be in jeopardy under adverse combination of meteorological conditions.

BACKGROUND

Known technical solutions proposed for the detection of situations, the further development of which may lead to a peat fire, suggest the creation of a network of observations. In an integrated system for monitoring and protecting peat bogs from fire, protected in 2011 by a utility model patent [5], it is proposed to cover the peat bog with a network of measuring wells with groundwater level sensors and measuring rods with temperature sensors. In the method of monitoring peat bogs for protection against fire, protected by the invention patent in 2017, [6], it is proposed to determine the fire hazard of the peat deposit “non-contact” using quadrocopters based on measurements of temperature and humidity at two altitude levels. A common drawback of these technical solutions is the unjustifiably high level of costs associated with the creation and operation of an observation network.

The technical result of our invention is to determine the risk of contamination of the Moscow air basin with combustion products generated during peat fires without creating a specialized observation network.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

To achieve the desired technical result, we took into account the following circumstances, creating the prerequisites for new technological solutions:

1. The appearance in the public domain of operational data (near-real-time data) on the state of the atmosphere with a fairly high spatial resolution and global coverage [7].

2. Publication of a method for calculating the fraction of the catchment area, where the moistening conditions correspond to the conditions necessary for the accumulation of peat deposits [8].

The desired technical result is achieved by the fact that the proportion of the area of wetlands in a fire hazard state, I _{определяется} , is determined by weather data between the first of March of the current year and the date of determination of the fire hazard (hereinafter referred to as the settlement period):

where ƒ _{P, 0} is the fraction of the catchment area, where, under normal climatic conditions, humidification conditions correspond to the conditions necessary for the accumulation of peat deposits; ƒ _P is the fraction of the catchment area, where under abnormal climatic conditions, the humidification conditions correspond to the conditions necessary for the accumulation of peat deposits:

ƒ _{P, 0} = min [1; max [1- (1-ƒ _{P, 0} ) (WPE ₀ / WPE); 0]]

where WPE ₀ is the excess humidification under normal climatic conditions during the calculation period, defined as the difference between precipitation and evaporation:

WPE ₀ = P ₀ - 0.7E0

where P ₀ is the amount of precipitation, and E ₀ is the volatility during the calculation period under normal climatic conditions, and WPE is the excess moisture during abnormal climatic conditions during the calculation period.

Since the immediate causes of peat fires are random events, such as careless handling of fire or a lightning strike, a fire hazard condition does not always end with a peat fire. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that the more peat bogs are in a fire hazard condition, the greater the likelihood of a peat fire in the territory surrounding Moscow, and, accordingly, the higher the risk of contamination of the Moscow air basin with combustion products resulting from peat fires. Therefore, the risk is defined as high if more than 75% of the swamps are in a fire hazard, as above average, if more than 50-75% of the swamps are in a fire hazard, how lower than average if more than 25-50% of the swamps are in a fire hazard, and how low if less than 25% of the swamps are in a fire hazard.

OPPORTUNITY TO IMPLEMENT

The feasibility of the proposed method has been demonstrated on historical data on monthly average values of air temperature and precipitation in the period 2001-2010, as well as in 1992 and 1972 in cells of the geographic grid of coordinates of 30-minute resolution, as well as data on the fraction of the area of bogs in cells of the geographic grid coordinates 6-minute resolution. In FIG. Figure 1 shows the results of determining the risk of air pollution in Moscow on August 1 of the corresponding year. The shaded columns correspond to those years when the risk of air pollution in Moscow was identified as high. The fact that during these years there was a noticeable smoke in the Moscow air basin [9-10], demonstrates the possibility of implementing the proposed method for determining the risk of contamination of the Moscow air basin with combustion products resulting from peat fires.

SOURCES OF INFORMATION

1. Johnston, FH, Henderson, SB, Chen, Y., Randerson, JT, Marlier, M., DeFries, RS, Kinney, P., Bowman, DMJS, Brauer, M., 2012. Estimated global mortality attributable to smoke from landscape fires. Environ. Health Perspect. 120, 695-701. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1104422

2. Kim, YH, Tong, H., Daniels, M., Boykin, E., Krantz, QT, McGee, J., Hays, M., Kovalcik, K., Dye, JA, Gilmour, MI, 2014. Cardiopulmonary toxicity of peat wildfire particulate matter and the predictive utility of precision cut lung slices. Part. Fiber Toxicol. 11. https://doi.org/10.1186/1743-8977-11-29

3. Rappold, AG, Stone, SL, Cascio, WE, Neas, LM, Kilaru, VJ, Carraway, MS, Szykman, JJ, Ising, A., Cleve, WE, Meredith, JT, Vaughan-Batten, H., Deyneka, L., Devlin, RB, 2011. Peat bog wildfire smoke exposure in rural North Carolina is associated with cardiopulmonary emergency department visits assessed through syndromic surveillance. Environ. Health Perspect. 119, 1415-1420. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1003206

4. Golitsyn, GS, Gorchakov, GI, Grechko, EI, Semoutnikova, EG, Rakitin, VS, Fokeeva, EV, Karpov, AV, Kurbatov, GA, Baikova, ES, Safrygina, TP, 2012. Extreme carbon monoxide pollution of the atmospheric boundary layer in Moscow region in the summer of 2010. Dokl. Earth Sci. 441, 1666-1672. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X11120014

5. Evgrafov A.B., Scherbakov P.S., Klimakhin V.Yu. Integrated monitoring system and protection of peat bogs from fire // Official Bulletin “Inventions. Utility Models ”, No. 20, RU 106542 U1 (dated July 20, 2011), 2011.

6. Kaplan B.Yu. A method for monitoring peatlands for protection against fire // Official Bulletin “Inventions. Utility Models ”, No. 20, RU 2625706 C1 (dated July 18, 2017), 2017.

7. Eskes H.J. et al. Validation report of the CAMS near-real-time global atmospheric composition service: December 2016 - February 2017 // Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Report, 2017, CAMS84_2015SC2_D84.1.1.7_2017DJF_v1.pdf

8. Alexandrov, G.A., Brovkin, V.A., Kleinen, T. 2016. The influence of climate on peatland extent in Western Siberia since the Last Glacial Maximum. Scientific Reports, 6: 24784, DOI: 10.1038 / srep24784 1. [www.nature.com/articles/srep24784]

9. Elansky N.F. et al. Gas composition of the surface air in Moscow during the extreme summer of 2010 // Dokl. Earth Sci. 2011. Vol. 437, No. 1. P. 357-362.

10. Elansky N.F. et al. Gaseous admixtures in the atmosphere over Moscow during the 2010 summer // Izv. Atmos. Ocean Phys. 2011. Vol. 47, No. 6. P. 672-681.

Claims (1)

A method for determining the risk of contamination of the Moscow air basin with combustion products resulting from peat fires, in which the proportion of the area of swamps in a fire hazard state is determined by weather data between the first of March of the current year and the date of determining the risk, which are substituted into the formula derived from the model drainage, and on the basis of the obtained value of the proportion of the area of wetlands in a fire hazard in the territory surrounding Moscow, the risk class is determined (high, above average, lower Independent user or low) contamination of the air basin Moscow combustion products formed during fires.

Images