KR102260990B1 - Lightning Prediction Method - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention increases the accuracy of lightning prediction by calculating the probability of occurrence of lightning in consideration of both the movement direction of the precipitation area with high precipitation density and the movement direction of lightning, and predicts the probability and time of occurrence of a lightning in a specific area in real time The purpose of the present invention is to provide a lightning prediction method that can protect structures from lightning strikes or take appropriate protective measures by generating an alarm.

Description

Lightning Prediction Method

The present invention relates to a method for predicting lightning, and more particularly, to a method for predicting lightning by predicting the possibility and time of occurrence of a lightning in a specific area and generating an alert in real time to prepare for a lightning strike in advance.

In general, the most common cause of lightning strikes is a thundercloud, which is charged with electricity, and generally consists of ice crystals with a positive charge on the upper part and water droplets with a negative charge on the lower part.

These thunderclouds are formed through a cumulus phase with strong updrafts, a maturation phase accompanied by updrafts, gusts of thunder and lightning, and showers, and an extinction phase in which the downdraft dominates and stabilizes, often with unstable hot and humid air. It is likely to occur when rising in the environment

When positive and negative electricity accumulates in a thundercloud, an electric discharge occurs between the clouds and between the clouds or between the clouds and the earth to neutralize the accumulated electricity. Among them, the discharge between the clouds and the earth is a lightning strike.

Lightning is a meteorological phenomenon that causes great damage in a very small area, such as power outages, fires, destruction of facilities, and human casualties.

It is estimated that about 1 million lightning strikes occur every year, and the damage and scale of such lightning strikes are increasing day by day in the land, sea, and air fields.

For this reason, the technology to predict the occurrence of lightning enables to predict the activity and movement path of thunderclouds and the occurrence of lightning, so that observation of weather conditions when launching a spacecraft, safety measures in major buildings and power facilities on the ground, and golf courses and playgrounds It is being applied as a measure to prevent damage caused by meteorological observation and lightning in various fields such as securing the safety of activities.

The prior art (Patent Document 1) relates to prediction of the possibility of bad weather, and discloses a method of predicting lightning by determining a critical lightning rate based on the location, speed, and direction of lightning cells.

However, since the prior art checks only the lightning cell with data based on the lightning detection system, not the radar-based data, and does not consider the movement direction of the precipitation area with high precipitation density with high probability of occurrence of lightning, the movement of the precipitation area with high precipitation density When the direction and the movement direction of the lightning do not match, there is a problem in that the accuracy of lightning prediction is reduced.

Republic of Korea Patent Publication No. 10-1929990 (Title of Invention: Prediction of Possibility for Severe Weather, Announcement Date: 2018. 12. 18)

Accordingly, the present invention is to solve the problems of the prior art as described above, and by calculating the probability of occurrence of lightning in consideration of both the movement direction of the precipitation zone with high precipitation density and the movement direction of the lightning, the accuracy of lightning prediction is improved, An object of the present invention is to provide a lightning prediction method that can protect a structure from lightning or take appropriate protection measures by predicting the possibility and time of occurrence of lightning in a specific area and generating an alert in real time.

The problems of the present invention are not limited to the problems mentioned above, and other problems not mentioned will be clearly understood by those skilled in the art from the following description.

In order to solve the above problems, a method for predicting lightning according to the present invention includes a step of receiving meteorological data for receiving meteorological data, a step of setting a target area for setting a target area to predict a lightning strike, and data based on the target area. A data collection area setting step of setting a collection area; a precipitation area vector calculation step of calculating a precipitation area movement vector from the meteorological data in the data collection area; and a lightning area movement vector is calculated from the meteorological data in the data collection area a lightning zone vector calculation step, a single vector calculation step of calculating a single vector by obtaining a vector sum of the precipitation zone motion vector and the lightning zone motion vector, and a lightning prediction step of predicting whether the single vector passes through the target area do.

Here, the data collection area includes an area of interest that includes the target area and has a larger area than the target area.

The method further includes an alarm generating step of generating an alarm when the single vector passes through the ROI.

In addition, the precipitation zone vector calculation step includes an image black-and-white processing step of processing the weather data in black and white, a boundary setting step of setting a boundary according to the precipitation density in the black-and-white processed weather data, and calculating a motion vector of the boundary, , and calculating the precipitation zone movement vector by calculating the average.

In addition, the lightning zone vector calculation step includes a lightning zone extraction step of extracting the lightning zone from the meteorological data, a central point detection step of detecting the central point of the lightning zone every predetermined time, and a movement vector of the central point by calculating the lightning strike. and a lightning zone movement vector calculation step of calculating the area movement vector.

The method further includes a region of interest size adjustment step of adjusting the size of the region of interest according to the size of the single vector after the step of calculating the single vector.

According to the lightning prediction method of the present invention, there are one or more of the following effects.

First, there is an advantage in that the accuracy of prediction of the movement speed and direction of lightning can be improved by calculating the probability of occurrence of lightning in consideration of both the movement direction of the precipitation zone with high precipitation density and the movement direction of lightning.

Second, it has the advantage of being able to efficiently prepare in advance by predicting the possibility and time of occurrence of lightning in the target area.

Third, it is possible to prevent accidents or disasters in advance by predicting lightning strikes based on the collected meteorological data and generating an alert in real time, thereby increasing work efficiency and preventing damage to human life or property.

Fourth, by setting the predicted time interval from the occurrence of the initial warning until the lightning strike reaches the target area, and adjusting the size of the area of interest according to the speed of the lightning according to the set time, the user can prevent lightning in advance as much as he wants. There is also the advantage of preventing accidents or disasters by having enough time to prepare.

Effects of the present invention are not limited to the effects mentioned above, and other effects not mentioned will be clearly understood by those skilled in the art from the description of the claims.

1 is a flowchart of a lightning prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
2 is a flowchart illustrating detailed steps of a precipitation zone vector calculation step according to an embodiment of the present invention.
3 is a diagram for explaining a precipitation zone vector calculation step according to an embodiment of the present invention.
4 is a view for explaining the boundary setting step of the precipitation zone vector calculation step according to an embodiment of the present invention.
5 is a flowchart illustrating detailed steps of a lightning zone vector calculation step according to an embodiment of the present invention.
6 is a diagram for explaining the step of calculating a lightning zone vector according to an embodiment of the present invention.
7 is a diagram for explaining a step of adjusting the size of a region of interest according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Advantages and features of the present invention and methods of achieving them will become apparent with reference to the embodiments described below in detail in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. However, the present invention is not limited to the embodiments disclosed below, but may be implemented in various different forms, and only these embodiments allow the disclosure of the present invention to be complete, and common knowledge in the art to which the present invention pertains It is provided to fully inform those who have the scope of the invention, and the present invention is only defined by the scope of the claims. Like reference numerals refer to like elements throughout.

The terminology used herein is used to describe specific embodiments, not to limit the present invention. As used herein, the singular form may include the plural form unless the context clearly dictates otherwise. In addition, when a part "includes" a certain component throughout the present specification, it means that other components may be further included unless otherwise stated.

Hereinafter, the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings in order to describe a method for predicting lightning according to embodiments of the present invention.

1 is a flowchart of a lightning prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

1, the lightning prediction method according to the present invention includes a weather data reception step (S10), a target area setting step (S20), a data collection area setting step (S30), a data collection start step (S35), and a precipitation area vector It includes a calculation step (S40), a lightning zone vector calculation step (S50), a single vector calculation step (S60), a size adjustment step of an area of interest (S70), a lightning prediction step (S80), and an alarm generation step (S90).

First, in the weather data receiving step (S10), lightning observation images and precipitation radar observation images are obtained in real time from a meteorological service provider such as the Korea Meteorological Administration, and data for performing lightning prediction using the obtained information is accumulated and analyzed.

In the lightning observation image, the location information of the lightning strike points observed in the lightning system is displayed on the map, and in the precipitation radar observation image, the precipitation area information according to the hourly precipitation amount is classified by color through the radar image observed by the weather radar. to provide In the lightning observation image and precipitation radar observation image, the lightning area vector 200 and the precipitation area vector 100 are obtained to calculate the single vector 300 in the lightning area vector calculation step (S50) and the precipitation area vector calculation step (S40). used to do

In the target area setting step ( S20 ), a target area ( 2 ) in which a lightning strike is predicted is set. The target area 2 can be set at a desired location as much as the size desired by the user. For example, it could be an area with specific buildings, such as a power plant or factory.

In the data collection area setting step S30 , the data collection area 4 is set based on the target area 2 . The data collection area 4 is an area for collecting meteorological data in order to predict the probability and time of occurrence of a lightning strike in the target area 2 . The data collection area 4 can be set as much as the user wants based on the target area 2, and in the lightning prediction method according to the present embodiment, the data collection area 4 is the target area 2 to predict the lightning. And it is preferably set to a sufficiently wider area than the region of interest 3 to be described later.

In addition, the data collection area 4 includes an area of interest 3 having a larger area than the target area 2 , and includes a wider area other than the target area 2 and the area of interest 3 . The area of interest (3) is set in a wider range than the target area (2) centered on the target area (2) in order to prevent this because the time to prepare for lightning is short when only the target area (2) exists. It is possible to predict the direction of lightning through sub-region classification, so it is easy to prepare for lightning. The size of the region of interest 3 is adjusted according to the movement speed of lightning, which will be described later.

In the data collection start step (S35), when a lightning strike occurs in the data collection area (4), from the weather data acquired in the meteorological data receiving step (S10), the meteorological data in the data collection area (40) starts to be collected, , the collected weather data is used to calculate the precipitation zone vector 100 and the lightning zone vector 200 in the precipitation zone vector calculation step S40 and the lightning zone vector calculation step S50 to perform lightning prediction. .

In the precipitation area vector calculation step (S40), when lightning occurs in the data collection area (4), the precipitation area vector (100) is calculated, and in the lightning area vector calculation step (S50), in the data collection area (4) When lightning occurs in , the lightning zone vector 200 is calculated. By calculating the probability of occurrence of lightning in consideration of both the movement direction of the precipitation zone and the movement direction of lightning, the accuracy of lightning prediction can be improved. A detailed description of the detailed steps of the precipitation zone vector calculation step (S40) and the lightning zone vector calculation step (S50) will be described later.

In the single vector calculation step S60, the vector sum of the calculated precipitation zone vector 100 and the lightning zone vector 200 is obtained to calculate the single vector 300, and the movement direction and speed of the single vector 300 are determined. do. Here, the movement direction and speed of the calculated single vector 300 becomes the movement direction and speed of the lightning strike.

In the step of adjusting the size of the region of interest ( S70 ), the size of the region of interest 3 is adjusted according to the calculated speed of the single vector 300 . A detailed description thereof will be provided later.

In the lightning prediction step ( S80 ), the probability that a lightning strike will occur in the target area ( 2 ) is calculated according to the possibility that the calculated movement direction of the single vector ( 300 ) passes through the target area ( 2 ), and The time of occurrence of lightning in the target area (2) is predicted according to the speed.

For example, when the single vector 300 passes outside the boundary line of the region of interest 3 , the probability of occurrence of lightning in the target region 2 is set to 0%, and the single vector 300 passes. The probability increases as the point is closer to the target area 2 based on the boundary line of the area of interest 3 , and when the single vector 300 passes through the target area 2 , the probability of occurrence of a lightning strike becomes 100%.

Also, based on the distance between the position of the single vector 300 and the target area 2 according to the speed of the single vector 300 , the time at which a lightning strike will occur in the target area 2 is predicted.

In the warning generating step (S90), when the single vector 300 reaches the boundary of the region of interest 3, an initial warning is generated to inform the possibility of occurrence of lightning and the expected occurrence time. Even after the initial warning, lightning information can be received by repeating the warning at regular time intervals, and when it is considered that there is no possibility of occurrence of lightning due to the disappearance of the lightning information within the area of interest 3, the alarm can be canceled after a certain period of time .

At this time, the alarm issuing method is not limited to any one of online alarm, alarm lamp, speaker, and text notification service through monitoring software, and by issuing an alarm in various forms according to the user's request, it is convenient to receive an alarm for lightning. You can see it, so you can take immediate action on the spot.

Next, the precipitation zone vector calculation step ( S40 ) according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. 2 to 4 .

2 is a flowchart illustrating detailed steps of the precipitation zone vector calculation step (S40) according to an embodiment of the present invention, and FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating the precipitation zone vector calculation step (S40) according to an embodiment of the present invention. 4 is a view for explaining the boundary setting step (S42) of the precipitation zone vector calculation step (S40) according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 2 , the detailed steps of the precipitation zone vector calculation step S40 according to an embodiment of the present invention are the image black and white processing step S41, the boundary setting step S42, and the precipitation zone movement vector calculation step S43. includes

First, the precipitation radar observation image used to calculate the precipitation area vector 100 in the precipitation area vector calculation step (S40) is CAPPI (Constant Altitude), which is distributed as Open API through a meteorological service provider such as the Korea Meteorological Administration. Plan Position Indicator) data is used. The data obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration are CAPPI data data in the form of text data. The CAPPI data is converted into an image form through imaging processing and used to obtain the precipitation zone movement vector 110 .

Referring to FIG. 3A , in the image black and white processing step S41 , the image is converted to black and white in order to obtain the precipitation zone movement vector 110 in the set data collection area 4 . It is possible to effectively detect the boundary (5) of the precipitation zone through black and white image.

Referring to FIG. 3B , in the boundary setting step S42, the boundary 5 and the boundary point 5a are detected in the area with high precipitation density in the data collection area 4 using an optical flow processing method. . At this time, according to the lightning prediction method according to the present embodiment, it is preferable to detect the boundary 5 in the precipitation area having a precipitation density of 20 mm/h or more, since the lightning is mainly located in a place with a high precipitation density among the precipitation areas.

Referring to FIG. 3C , in the precipitation zone movement vector calculation step S43 , a boundary point movement vector 120 is extracted according to the movement of boundary points, and one precipitation zone movement vector 110 is obtained through the average of the boundary point movement vectors 120 . Calculate.

Referring to FIG. 4 , in the boundary setting step S42 , if the precipitation zone is a block shape of a closed curve as shown in FIG. 4A , the boundary 5 of each image is detected and the vector to which the boundary point 5a is moved is determined. The motion vector 110 may be calculated. In addition, in the case of a precipitation zone shape that does not have a certain shape as shown in FIG. 4B , a method of obtaining the boundary point moving vector 120 of the contour line is used after preprocessing and generating the contour line according to the precipitation density.

As shown in FIG. 4 , since the precipitation zone image of the precipitation radar observation image is an atypical image in which a certain shape is not determined, a motion vector with high accuracy can be obtained by complexly applying an appropriate algorithm for each shape.

Next, the lightning zone vector calculation step ( S50 ) according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. 5 and 6 .

5 is a flowchart illustrating detailed steps of calculating a lightning zone vector (S50) according to an embodiment of the present invention, and FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating a step (S50) of calculating a lightning zone vector according to an embodiment of the present invention. is a drawing for

Referring to FIG. 5 , the detailed steps of the lightning zone vector calculation step S50 according to the embodiment of the present invention are the lightning zone extraction step S51, the central point detection step S52, and the lightning zone movement vector calculation step S53. includes

6, first, in the lightning zone extraction step (S51), the lightning zone 9 is extracted through the lightning observation image obtained from a meteorological service provider such as the Korea Meteorological Administration, and in the central point detection step (S52), the lightning zone 9 to detect the center point of At this time, when there are a plurality of lightning zones 9, the average value of the plurality of lightning zones 9 is taken as the central point, and when there is only one lightning generating point 7 in the extracted lightning zone 9, the lightning generating point ( 7) is detected as the central point.

Next, in the lightning zone movement vector calculation step S53 , the movement vector of the central point obtained according to the detected movement of the central point is calculated as the lightning zone movement vector 210 . In addition, as shown in FIG. 6 , the central point is repeatedly detected every predetermined time, and the movement direction and speed of the lightning zone movement vector 210 are calculated according to the change of time.

7 is a view for explaining the step of adjusting the size of the region of interest (S70) according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 7 , the data collection area 4 includes a region of interest 3 that is wider than the target area 2 with respect to the target area 2 in the data collection area 4 . The area of interest (3) is set in a wider range than the target area (2) so that lightning strikes can be prepared for lightning with sufficient time before passing through the target area (2). At this time, as the speed of the calculated single vector 300 increases, the movement speed of lightning increases. Therefore, assuming that the size of the region of interest 3 is constant, as the speed of the single vector 300 increases, the single vector 300 passes through the region of interest 3 and the target region ( There is a problem in that the time until reaching 2) is shortened, so that the time during which the user can prepare for lightning is shortened. In order to prevent this, in the step of adjusting the size of the region of interest (S70), a single vector ( 300) adjusts the size of the region of interest 3 according to the speed.

For example, assuming that the speed of the single vector 300 is constant at 100 km/h and the prediction time interval is set to 60 minutes, the size of the region of interest 3 is 100 km based on the boundary of the target region 2 . It is set as a radius, and from the time the single vector 300 arrives at the boundary of the region of interest 3 and the first warning occurs until it reaches the target region 2, it is possible to prepare for lightning by the set prediction time interval. Here, the size of the region of interest 3 is the same, and when only the speed of the single vector 300 increases, a lightning strike occurs in the target region 2 faster than the set prediction time interval, so the size of the region of interest 3 is increased. By increasing it, it is possible to prepare for lightning as much as the set predicted time interval.

As described above, although preferred embodiments of the present invention have been illustrated and described with reference to the drawings, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments described above, and the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments described above, and the invention is not limited to the scope of the present invention as claimed in the claims. Various modifications may be made by those of ordinary skill in the art to which the invention pertains, and these modifications should not be individually understood from the technical spirit or prospect of the present invention.

2: Target area
3: Region of interest
4: Data collection area
5: Boundary
5a: boundary point
7: Lightning strike point
9: Lightning zone
100: precipitation area vector
110: precipitation zone movement vector
120: boundary point moving vector
200: lightning zone vector
210: lightning zone movement vector
300: single vector

Claims (6)

a meteorological data receiving step of receiving meteorological data;
A target area setting step of setting a target area to predict a lightning strike;
a data collection area setting step of setting a data collection area based on the target area;
a precipitation area vector calculation step of calculating a precipitation area movement vector from the weather data in the data collection area;
a lightning zone vector calculation step of calculating a lightning zone movement vector from the weather data in the data collection area;
a single vector calculation step of calculating a single vector by obtaining a vector sum of the precipitation zone movement vector and the lightning zone movement vector; and
and a lightning prediction step of predicting whether the single vector passes through the target area. The method of claim 1,
The data collection area is
A method for predicting lightning that includes an area of interest having a larger area than the target area while including the target area. 3. The method of claim 2,
and an alarm generating step of generating an alarm when the single vector passes through the region of interest. The method of claim 1,
The precipitation zone vector calculation step is,
an image black-and-white processing step of processing the weather data in black and white;
a boundary setting step of setting a boundary according to the precipitation density in the black-and-white processed weather data; and
and calculating a movement vector of the boundary and calculating an average of the movement vector of the precipitation area to calculate the movement vector of the precipitation area. The method of claim 1,
The lightning zone vector calculation step is,
a lightning zone extraction step of extracting the lightning zone from the weather data;
a center point detection step of detecting the center point of the lightning zone at regular intervals; and
and calculating a movement vector of the central point and calculating the movement vector of the lightning zone. 3. The method of claim 2,
After the single vector calculating step, the method further comprising a region of interest size adjustment step of adjusting the size of the region of interest according to the size of the single vector.

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