JP3176960B2 - Power demand estimation system - Google Patents

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a power demand estimating system for estimating a power demand (hereinafter referred to as demand).

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Daily demand is estimated in order to make a daily power operation plan. Skilled operators use the knowledge and the results of statistical analysis of past demand results to determine the latest demand trends. Demand is estimated from the correlation between demand and weather conditions, social factors, etc., but in reality, demand changes vary according to season and day of the week depending on the type of business in each region. Power consumption cannot be estimated immediately, and it is desired to improve the accuracy of estimating the total amount of power. In addition, even if the contracted electric energy of each type of business can be grasped, it is not possible to immediately grasp how the electric power is used every day, and it takes a considerable amount of time to collect such data.

[0003]

According to the above-mentioned conventional technique for estimating power demand, the manner in which power is used by an industry,
There has been a problem that the power structure by region is not immediately reflected, and the accuracy of power demand estimation cannot be improved. The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances,
It is an object of the present invention to provide a power demand estimation system capable of improving demand estimation accuracy.

[0004]

According to the present invention, in order to solve the above-mentioned problems, an estimated area is subdivided, and an electric power demand for a representative electric power consumer in each of the subdivided areas is transmitted via a transmission line. Data collecting means for collecting data by the data collecting means, and classifying data collecting means for classifying the data according to area, industry, or each industry based on the data of each power consumer, instead of the industry. Industries k that are not collected based on the electricity amount P _ik of the customer aggregated by each category
Means for calculating the following power demand estimation value _Pk for the same class of consumers in the entire region including the customers in the whole region, and the power demand for the customers in the same class by the regions Means for calculating the following power demand estimated value R _i of the total of all industries based on the estimated value of each industry, and the following total demand estimation of all areas based on the total demand estimated value obtained for each of the above-mentioned regions. Total demand calculation means for calculating the value G. Record

(Equation 2) [Operation] The data collecting means collects the electric energy of an arbitrary customer for each region, and the data summarizing means for each category uses the collected electric energy of each customer as an input value for each region, for each industry, or for each industry. Instead of being classified by the type of business, they are classified by use and totaled. The regional expansion demand calculation means for each area obtains an estimated value of demand for the same type of customer in the entire area based on the electric energy of the customer collected for each area and for each classification. The regional total demand calculating means obtains an estimated electric power demand value of all industries in each area, and the all regional total demand calculating means obtains an estimated total demand value of all regions.

[0005]

An embodiment will be described below with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a configuration example diagram of a power demand estimation system according to the present invention. The power demand estimating system of FIG. 1 is a computer 1 for performing a demand estimating process, and a computer 1 for taking in the respective power amounts of a plurality of customers in individual areas A _{i obtained} by dividing the entire estimation target area A into n. Data transmission path 2 and data transmission device 3
It consists of The computer 1 includes a data collection process 11, a data summation process by classification 12, a total system expansion demand calculation process by region, a total demand calculation process by region 14, and a total demand calculation process 15 by all regions.

[0006] FIG. 2 is a detailed block diagram for pumping the electric energy of consumers in the region in the region A _i to the computer 1. As shown in the figure, the regional data A _i contains the electric power amounts U _{i1 to} U _i of the customers scattered in the area A _i having various types of industries.
_It comprises measuring instruments M _{i1 to} M _ic for measuring _ic, and a data transmission device X _i which periodically collects the measured values and sends it to the data transmission line 2.

Next, the operation will be described. First, the entire area A in which the customers are scattered is divided into n areas, and the electric power amounts U _{i1 to} U _ic of the consumers with respect to the number c of the customers scattered in the divided area A _i are respectively measured. The measurement is performed at M _{i1 to} M _ic , and the computer 1 periodically receives data via the data transmission device X _i , the data transmission path 2, and the data transmission device 3. The electric power amounts U _{i1 to} U _ic of the consumers received here are collected by the data collection processing 11 and are classified by area (for example, Saitama prefecture, Gunma prefecture, Ibaraki prefecture, etc.) by the data collection processing 11 by category, Power demand is calculated by integrating and summarizing separately (department stores, steel companies, electric companies, etc.).

A specific example of estimating the power demand based on the power demand will be described below. The demand estimate (whole system expansion estimate) P _k of the entire industry k in the region A _i including the customers of the industry k not collected from the collected electricity amount P _ik of the customer of the industry k is calculated as The following equation (1) is calculated and obtained in the whole system expansion demand calculation processing 13 for each classification. W _it: the total contract amount of power of all consumers of the industry k in the region A _i W _is: in more than a total contract amount of power of the collected consumer industry k in the region A _i, demand of industry k in the region A _i Then, the demand estimation value R of the total of all the industries in the area A _i is estimated.
_i is calculated by the following formula (2) in the regional total demand calculation processing 14. R _i : Total estimate of all industries in region A _i P _k : Demand estimate of industry k J: Number of industries

Further, an estimated demand value G in all areas A is obtained by calculating the following equation (3) in a total demand calculation processing 15 in all areas. G: Estimated total demand value of all areas R _i : Estimated demand value in area A _i n: Number of divided areas According to the above embodiment, the present invention has been described focusing on the type of customer, but the present invention is not limited to this. Instead, the same effect can be obtained by estimating demand by focusing on the purpose (light, low voltage, high voltage, etc.).

[0010]

As described above, according to the present invention, the demand estimation area is finely divided, and the demand quantity of the actual customer for each type of business in the subdivided area is sampled to calculate the demand quantity of all areas. Since the configuration is based on analogy, it is possible to more accurately grasp the demand due to the activities of daily business, and the effect of improving the accuracy of the demand estimation is improved.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of an embodiment of a power demand estimation system according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a detailed configuration diagram of each area obtained by dividing all areas A shown in FIG. 1 into n.

[Explanation of symbols]

 DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Computer 2 Data transmission line 3 Data transmission device

──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continued on the front page (72) Inventor Shoji Fukushima 1-3-3 Uchisaiwaicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Within Tokyo Electric Power Company (72) Katsumi Nomura 1 Toshiba-cho, Fuchu-shi, Tokyo Higashishiba, Inc. Inside the Fuchu Plant (72) Inventor Yasushi Wakahara 1 Toshiba-cho, Fuchu-shi, Tokyo Inside the Toshiba Fuchu Plant (72) Inventor Akira Ito 1 Toshiba-cho, Fuchu-shi, Tokyo Inside the Toshiba Fuchu Plant (56) References JP-A-63-274328 (JP, A) (58) Fields investigated (Int. Cl. ⁷ , DB name) H02J 3/00

Claims (1)

(57) [Claims] 1. A subdivide estimation area, and a data collection means for collecting through the transmission path of power demand for typical electric power consumers in each region that is the fragmented, the data acquisition
Based on regional data for each electric power consumers is collected by the collecting means, and the classified data aggregation means that for each application instead of by industry or the industry like each minute <br/>, aggregated said for each classification Industries k that are not collected based on the electricity amount P _ik of the customer
For the same category of customers throughout the region, including
And region categorical entire system expansion calculating means for calculating an estimated value P _k of the following power demand, electricity for the customer by region in the same classification
And region total demand calculating means based on the estimated value of the force demand determining the following power demand estimate R _i for all industries total, following all regions the based on total demand estimation values obtained for each area A power demand estimation system comprising: a total demand calculation means for calculating a total demand estimate G. Note [Equation 1]