JP2016184250A - Profit/loss prediction device and profit/loss prediction program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To accurately predict profit and loss when sales planning information is changed.SOLUTION: A profit/loss prediction device identifies an item concerning which a difference between the initial costs varies during an object period when sales planning information is modified, and calculates a variation quantity of the difference between the initial costs for the identified item concerning which the difference between the initial costs varies in the case that the sales planning information is modified. The profit/loss prediction device calculates a difference between the initial costs during the object period by using the calculated variation quantity of the difference between the initial costs and calculates a profit/loss value during the object period by using the calculated difference between the initial costs.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 9

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for predicting profit and loss.

  The accounting data is a summary of past performance in business activities such as sales, purchasing, and manufacturing. In a core system for companies (hereinafter referred to as ERP), profits and losses by company and business are calculated from accounting data. Therefore, the profit and loss provided by ERP is the profit and loss in the past performance. For example, the profit and loss of the target month provided by ERP during the month is the profit and loss in the past performance from the beginning of the month to the date before the processing date, and does not include the predicted value of future profit or loss from the processing date to the end of the month.

  In ERP, in a monthly closing process performed at the beginning of the next month, a cost difference such as a manufacturing cost of the target month is calculated. Therefore, the profit and loss for the target month provided by ERP during the target month is calculated from the sales from the beginning of the month to the processing date and the cost from the beginning of the month to the processing date calculated based on the standard price. . In other words, the profit and loss provided during the month by ERP includes an error for the cost difference.

In ERP, when sales plan information is changed, MRP (Materials
(Requirements Planning) has a function to recreate work schedule information, order information, and the like. Processing by MRP has a high processing load and takes a very long time. Therefore, generally, processing by MRP is executed by nighttime batch processing or the like.

JP 2004-021364 A

In the management of companies, various management decisions are made according to the prospects for future profits and losses. If management mistakes are made, business results will deteriorate. As a result, management needs to get as accurate a profit and loss outlook as possible. Also, if management decisions are delayed, measures will be delayed. As a result, management needs to obtain a profit and loss outlook as soon as possible.
However, the profit and loss provided during the month by ERP is the profit and loss in the past performance, and the profit and loss at the end of the month is not known until the end of the month. In addition, since the profit / loss provided by ERP during the month includes an error for cost difference, even if the profit / loss at the end of the month is simply predicted from the profit / loss provided during the month by ERP, the corresponding error is included. Will be.

In addition, when the manager takes measures such as changing the sales plan information, it is necessary to simulate how the future profit / loss changes and to examine appropriate measures. In this case, a plurality of countermeasures are respectively simulated to determine the optimum countermeasure.
However, in order to simulate how future profits and losses will change, work schedule information, ordering information, and the like must be recreated in accordance with changes in sales plan information. In order to recreate work schedule information, order information, etc., it is necessary to execute processing by MRP, which takes a long time. For this reason, simulation cannot be performed in a situation where countermeasures should be considered quickly.

  An object of the present invention is to accurately predict profits and losses when sales plan information is changed.

The profit and loss forecasting apparatus according to the present invention is:
It is a profit and loss forecasting device that forecasts profit and loss for the target period,
A correction information input unit that receives input of correction information for correcting sales plan information;
When the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information received by the correction information input unit, an affected item specifying unit for specifying an item whose cost difference in the target period varies;
A cost difference change amount calculation unit for calculating a change amount of the cost difference when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose cost difference specified by the affected item specification unit is changed;
A cost difference calculation unit for calculating a cost difference in the target period using a cost difference change amount calculated by the cost difference change amount calculation unit;
A profit / loss calculation unit for calculating a profit / loss forecast value for the target period using the cost difference calculated by the cost difference calculation unit;

The affected item specifying unit specifies an item whose sales in the target period fluctuate when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information,
The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
A sales fluctuation amount calculation unit that calculates a fluctuation amount of sales when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose sales specified by the affected item specification unit is changed,
Using the sales fluctuation amount calculated by the sales fluctuation amount calculation unit, and a sales calculation unit for calculating sales in the target period,
The profit / loss calculation unit calculates a profit / loss forecast value for the target period using the sales calculated by the sales calculation unit.

The affected item specifying unit specifies an item whose cost in the target period fluctuates when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information,
The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
A cost fluctuation amount calculation unit for calculating a fluctuation amount of the cost when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose cost specified by the affected item specification unit is fluctuated;
A cost calculation unit for calculating a cost in the target period using a cost change amount calculated by the cost change amount calculation unit,
The profit / loss calculation unit calculates a profit / loss forecast value for the target period using the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit.

  The affected item specifying unit specifies an item whose cost difference in the target period fluctuates based on details totaled when calculating the consolidated standard cost for the item corrected by the correction information.

  The affected item identification unit purchases the item indicated by the item related to the raw material indicating the cost and the item indicated by the item related to the raw material indicating the cost and the item related to the item other than the raw material which is the external procurement and whose cost element is not set yet. Identifies the purchase price difference target item that fluctuates the difference.

  The said influence item specific | specification part specifies the item which the detail which includes in-house production in a supplier shows as a manufacturing cost difference object item which fluctuates a manufacturing cost difference.

  The said influence item specific | specification part specifies the item which the detail regarding an internal activity shows as a collection difference object item which fluctuates a collection difference.

  The cost difference variation calculation unit calculates the purchase price difference among the cost differences per purchase price per reference quantity in the purchase information for the purchase price difference target item and per reference quantity for the purchase price difference target item. Is calculated by multiplying the difference from the standard price by the variable quantity of the purchase price difference target item.

  The purchase information is purchase schedule information whose effective start date is a date before the scheduled delivery date, and purchase schedule information indicating a plan to purchase the purchase price difference target item, and the purchase price difference target item is purchased. Of the information with the purchase record information indicating the record, it is information having the latest date when the effective start date of the purchase schedule information and the recording date of the purchase record information are set as the date of the information.

  The cost difference variation calculation unit calculates, for the recovery difference among the cost differences, the average value of the processing cost per reference amount in the past actual information on the recovery difference target item, and the variable quantity of the recovery difference target item. Calculate using the amount obtained by multiplying by.

  The cost difference variation calculation unit manufactures the manufacturing cost difference target item in the target period calculated based on the sales plan information before the correction by the correction information for the manufacturing cost difference among the cost differences. It is calculated by multiplying the average value per standard amount of the cost difference by the variable quantity of the manufacturing cost difference target item.

The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
For each item for which sales plan information has been corrected, a quick reference table storage unit is provided for storing a quick reference table indicating the items specified in the past by the affected item specification unit,
The affected item specifying unit specifies an item that fluctuates according to the quick reference table when the quick reference table storing unit stores a quick reference table for items whose sales plan information is corrected by the correction information.

The profit and loss prediction program according to the present invention is:
A profit and loss forecasting program for forecasting profit and loss for the target period,
Correction information input processing for receiving input of correction information for correcting sales plan information;
When the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information received in the correction information input process, an affected item specifying process for specifying an item whose cost difference in the target period fluctuates;
A cost difference change calculation process for calculating a change amount of the cost difference when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose cost difference specified by the affected item specifying process is changed;
A cost difference calculation process for calculating a cost difference in the target period using a change amount of the cost difference calculated in the cost difference change calculation process;
Using the cost difference calculated in the cost difference calculation process, the computer executes a profit / loss calculation process for calculating a profit / loss forecast value in the target period.

  In the profit and loss prediction apparatus according to the present invention, when the sales plan information is corrected, an item whose cost difference fluctuates is specified, and the cost difference for the specified item is recalculated. Thereby, when sales plan information is corrected, it is possible to predict profit / loss accurately.

1 is a schematic explanatory diagram of a profit / loss prediction system 10 according to Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the profit-and-loss prediction apparatus 200 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the profit / loss calculation part 250 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the sales calculation part 220 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the cost calculation part 230 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the cost difference calculation part 240 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the purchase price difference process part 241 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the collection | recovery difference process part 242 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the manufacturing cost difference process part 243 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the profit-and-loss prediction apparatus 200 which concerns on Embodiment 2. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the profit and loss calculation part 250 which concerns on Embodiment 2. FIG. FIG. 9 is a schematic explanatory diagram of an operation of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the second embodiment. Explanatory drawing of the operation example of the profit-and-loss prediction apparatus 200 which concerns on Embodiment 2. FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing simulation processing according to the second embodiment. The figure which shows the item attached | subjected to the detail of the cost piled up when calculating a consolidated standard cost in ERP100. The figure which shows the example of the detail of the cost piled up when calculating a consolidated standard cost in ERP100. The figure which shows the example of the detail of the cost piled up when calculating a consolidated standard cost in ERP100. The figure which shows the example of the detail of the cost piled up when calculating a consolidated standard cost in ERP100. The figure which shows the example of the detail of the cost piled up when calculating a consolidated standard cost in ERP100. Explanatory drawing of the identification method of the item in which at least one of sales, cost, and cost variance fluctuates. FIG. 20 is an explanatory diagram of details and items specified by the specifying method shown in FIG. 20 for the cost details shown in FIGS. FIG. 20 is an explanatory diagram of details and items specified by the specifying method shown in FIG. 20 for the cost details shown in FIGS. The block diagram of the profit-and-loss prediction apparatus 200 concerning Embodiment 3. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the quick reference table 300. FIG. The figure which shows the example of the hardware constitutions of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 shown to Embodiment 1-3.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
*** Explanation of configuration ***
FIG. 1 is a schematic explanatory diagram of a profit / loss prediction system 10 according to the first embodiment.
The profit / loss prediction system 10 predicts profit / loss for the target period from the past start time to the future end time. Here, a case where the processing date is July 8 and the target period is July (from the start time point July 1 to the end time point July 31), the profit / loss for July is predicted as an example. .

The profit / loss prediction system 10 includes an ERP 100 and a profit / loss prediction apparatus 200. The ERP 100 and the profit / loss prediction device 200 are connected via a network such as a LAN (Local Area Network).
The ERP 100 has business performance information and plan information. The performance information is accounting data, and the performance information includes actual performance information such as sales performance information, purchase performance information, work performance information, production performance information, and expense performance information. ing. The plan information includes sales plan information (forecast), backlog information, procurement plan information, work schedule information, order information, manufacturing in-process information, inventory information, expense budget information, and the like.
The profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 acquires the performance information and the plan information from the ERP 100 and predicts the profit / loss for the target period on the processing date. That is, here, the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 predicts profit / loss for July as of July 8th.

FIG. 2 is a configuration diagram of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the first embodiment.
The profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 includes an information acquisition unit 210, a sales calculation unit 220, a cost calculation unit 230, a cost difference calculation unit 240, a profit / loss calculation unit 250, an output unit 260, and a standard cost storage unit 270. .

  The information acquisition unit 210 acquires business information that is performance information and plan information from the ERP 100 via the network. In particular, the information acquisition unit 210, from the ERP 100, results information including results in the past period from the start time (July 1 here) to the day before the processing date (July 8 here) and the processing date Plan information including a plan in the future period up to the time point (here, July 31) is acquired.

The sales calculation unit 220 calculates the sales result value in the past period based on the result information acquired by the information acquisition unit 210. Further, the sales calculation unit 220 calculates a sales forecast value in the future period based on the plan information acquired by the information acquisition unit 210.
The sales calculation unit 220 calculates the sales for the target period by adding the actual sales value and the predicted sales value.

The cost calculation unit 230 calculates the actual cost value in the past period based on the actual information acquired by the information acquisition unit 210 and the standard cost. In addition, the cost calculation unit 230 calculates a cost prediction value in the future period based on the plan information acquired by the information acquisition unit 210 and the standard cost.
The cost calculation unit 230 adds the actual cost value and the cost prediction value to calculate the cost for the target period.

The cost difference calculation unit 240 calculates, for each cost item of a plurality of cost items, the actual cost that is expected to occur in the target period from the actual information and plan information acquired by the information acquisition unit 210. Moreover, the cost difference calculation part 240 calculates the standard price in an object period about each cost item.
For each cost item, the cost difference calculation unit 240 subtracts the standard cost from the actual cost and calculates the cost difference for that cost item in the target period.

  As shown in FIG. 3, the profit / loss calculation unit 250 subtracts the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit 230 from the sales calculated by the sales calculation unit 220 and further calculates the cost items calculated by the cost difference calculation unit 240. The profit / loss forecast value for the target period is calculated by subtracting the cost difference. The profit / loss calculation unit 250 may calculate the profit / loss forecast value after increasing / decreasing the cost difference based on other factors (for example, standard cost, actual cost, inventory, etc.). In addition, the profit / loss calculation unit 250 may calculate the profit / loss forecast value by subtracting the cost and the cost difference from the sales and further subtracting or adding a value based on other factors.

  The output unit 260 outputs the profit / loss prediction value calculated by the profit / loss calculation unit 250 by, for example, displaying it on a display device. In addition, the output unit 260 calculates the actual sales value, the predicted sales value, and the sales calculated by the sales calculation unit 220, the actual cost value, the predicted cost, and the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit 230, and the cost difference calculation unit 240 calculates. The actual cost, standard cost and cost difference for each cost item are output.

  The standard cost storage unit 270 is a storage device that stores a standard cost per unit quantity for each item such as products, materials, and parts, and stores a scheduled charge per unit time for each item of work. The scheduled charge is a planned amount (processing cost) required per unit time for production activities in a process or line.

*** Explanation of operation ***
FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram of processing of the sales calculation unit 220 according to the first embodiment.
The sales calculation unit 220 uses the sales result information of the products delivered in the past period as the result information. The sales performance information includes product identification information, sales price, sales quantity, and other attribute information (sold business division, sales destination, etc.). Moreover, the sales calculation part 220 uses the sales schedule information in which a delivery date is included in a future period as plan information. The sales schedule information includes the identification information of the sales product, the selling price, the sales quantity, and other attribute information. Here, the sales schedule information includes backorder information that has already been ordered but has not been delivered, and sales plan information that has not been ordered but is planned to be sold.

The sales calculation unit 220 calculates the sales performance value in the past period by multiplying the sales price included in the sales performance information by the sales quantity. In addition, the sales calculation unit 220 calculates the sales forecast value in the future period by multiplying the sales price of the sales schedule information by the sales quantity.
The sales calculation unit 220 calculates the sales for the target period by adding the actual sales value and the predicted sales value.

FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram of processing of the cost calculation unit 230 according to the first embodiment.
As with the sales calculation unit 220, the cost calculation unit 230 uses the sales result information delivered in the past period as the result information, and the sales schedule information including the delivery date in the future period as the plan information.

The cost calculation unit 230 searches the standard cost storage unit 270 based on the sales product identification information included in the sales performance information, and specifies the standard cost of the sales product. Then, the cost calculation unit 230 calculates the actual cost value in the past period by multiplying the standard price of the sold product by the sales quantity of the sales result information. Further, the cost calculation unit 230 searches the standard cost storage unit 270 based on the sales product identification information included in the sales schedule information, and specifies the standard cost of the sales product. Then, the cost calculation unit 230 calculates the cost prediction value in the future period by multiplying the standard price of the sales product by the sales quantity of the sales schedule information.
The cost calculation unit 230 adds the actual cost value and the cost prediction value to calculate the cost for the target period.

The process of the cost difference calculation unit 240 will be described.
There are many types of cost variances. Here, in general, in the case of comprehensive cost calculation (in the case of mass production in accordance with a production plan, not on order production), a purchase price difference, a recovery difference, and a manufacturing cost difference that greatly affect the cost will be described.

FIG. 6 is a configuration diagram of the cost difference calculation unit 240 according to the first embodiment.
The cost difference calculation unit 240 includes a purchase price difference processing unit 241, a collection difference processing unit 242, and a manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243.
The purchase price difference processing unit 241 calculates a purchase price difference. The purchase price difference is a difference between a price determined as a standard cost and a price actually purchased when purchasing materials, parts, and the like from the outside. The purchase price difference processing unit 241 includes a purchase standard cost calculation unit 2411, a purchase actual cost calculation unit 2412, and a purchase price difference calculation unit 2413.
The collection difference processing unit 242 calculates a collection difference. The recovery difference is the difference between the schedule and the actual performance related to the recovery of expenses (expenses) of the direct department. The collection difference processing unit 242 includes a collection standard cost calculation unit 2421, a collection actual cost calculation unit 2422, and a collection difference calculation unit 2423.
The manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 calculates the manufacturing cost difference. The manufacturing cost difference is a difference between the manufacturing cost determined as the standard cost and the actual manufacturing cost. The manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 includes a manufacturing standard cost calculating unit 2431, an actual manufacturing cost calculating unit 2432, a manufacturing cost difference calculating unit 2433, and a reference value storage unit 2434.

FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram of processing of the purchase price difference processing unit 241 according to the first embodiment.
FIG. 7A is an explanatory diagram for calculating the purchase price difference in the monthly processing, and FIG. 7B is an explanatory diagram for calculating the purchase price difference during the month by the purchase price difference processing unit 241.

At the time of monthly processing, the actual purchase price, which is the actual purchase price, and the purchase quantity, which is the actual purchase quantity, for the materials and parts purchased in the target period (July) It is included in purchase results information.
Therefore, as shown in FIG. 7 (a), in the monthly processing, the purchase price information including the delivery date in the target period is used to obtain the standard price of the purchased material or part for each purchase record information. The purchase standard cost ((1) in FIG. 7) multiplied by the received quantity is calculated, and the actual purchase price (in FIG. 7) obtained by multiplying the purchased purchase price actually purchased by the purchase quantity for each purchase result information. (2)) is calculated. Then, when the purchase standard cost ((1) in FIG. 7) is subtracted from the actual purchase cost ((2) in FIG. 7), a purchase price difference ((3) in FIG. 7) is obtained.

On the other hand, during the month, for materials and parts purchased in the past period (from July 1 to July 7), the actual purchase price and quantity are included in the purchase record information. However, with regard to materials and parts purchased in the future period (from July 8 to July 31), the actual purchase price and quantity are not included in the performance information. Therefore, the purchase price difference processing unit 241 predicts the price and quantity of materials and parts to be purchased in the future period from the order information.
Specifically, the purchase price difference processing unit 241 uses purchase record information including a delivery date in the past period as the record information. The purchase record information includes a purchase item indicating the purchased material or part, a purchase purchase price that is a purchased price, and a purchase quantity that is a purchased quantity. Further, the purchase price difference processing unit 241 uses order information including a delivery date in the future period as the plan information. The order information includes an order item indicating a material or a part to be purchased, an order purchase price that is a price to be purchased, and an order quantity that is a quantity to be purchased. Here, the ordering information includes ordered information that has been ordered but not delivered, and ordering schedule information that has not been ordered but is planned to be ordered.
Then, the purchase price difference processing unit 241 calculates the purchase price difference as shown in FIG.

For the past period, the purchase standard cost calculation unit 2411 multiplies the purchase price by the purchase quantity for the standard price of the purchased material or part for each purchase record information, as in the monthly processing (FIG. 7). (4)) is calculated. For the future period, the purchase standard cost calculation unit 2411 calculates the purchase standard cost prediction value ((5) in FIG. 7) by multiplying the standard price of the ordered item by the order quantity for each order information.
The purchase standard cost calculation unit 2411 adds the purchase standard cost actual value ((4) in FIG. 7) and the purchase standard cost forecast value ((5) in FIG. 7) to the purchase standard cost ((6) in FIG. 7). ).

The actual purchase cost calculation unit 2412 calculates the actual purchase cost actual value ((7) in FIG. 7) by multiplying the purchase purchase price by the purchase quantity for each actual purchase for the past period. The purchase actual cost calculation unit 2412 calculates a purchase actual cost forecast value ((8) in FIG. 7) by multiplying the order purchase price by the order quantity for each order information for the future period.
The actual purchase cost calculation unit 2412 adds the actual purchase cost actual value ((7) in FIG. 7) and the actual purchase cost predicted value ((8) in FIG. 7) to the actual purchase cost ((9) in FIG. 7). ).

  The purchase price difference calculation unit 2413 calculates the purchase price difference ((10) in FIG. 7) by subtracting the purchase standard cost ((6) in FIG. 7) from the actual purchase cost ((9) in FIG. 7).

FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of processing of the collection difference processing unit 242 according to the first embodiment.
FIG. 8A is an explanatory diagram of calculation of the collection difference in the monthly processing, and FIG. 8B is an explanatory diagram of calculation of the collection difference during the month by the collection difference processing unit 242.

At the time when the monthly processing is executed, the work item in which the work was performed in the target period (July) and the actual work time in which the work was performed are included in the worked information. In addition, the direct departmental costs for the period covered are clear as actual results. The direct department expenses include personnel expenses of the department, depreciation expenses of factory facilities, utility expenses, and allocation of administrative department expenses.
Therefore, as shown in FIG. 8 (a), in the monthly processing, the scheduled charge for the work item is multiplied by the actual work time for each work completed information, using the work completed information that has been performed during the target period. The recovery standard cost ((1) in FIG. 8) is calculated. Then, when the recovery standard cost ((1) in FIG. 8) is subtracted from the cost of the direct department ((2) in FIG. 8), a recovery difference ((3) in FIG. 8) is obtained.

On the other hand, during the month, the work items that have been worked in the past period (from July 1 to July 7) and the actual work time in which the work has been done are included in the work done information. However, the work performed in the future period (from July 8 to July 31) is not included in the work completed information. In addition, the direct sector costs for the target period are not clear as actual results. Therefore, the collection difference processing unit 242 predicts work to be performed in the future period from the work schedule information. In addition, the cost of the direct department is estimated from the annual budget plan.
Specifically, the collection difference processing unit 242 uses work completed information including a work day in the past period as the result information. The work completion information includes work items for which work has been performed and actual work times for which work has been performed. Further, the collection difference processing unit 242 uses work schedule information that is scheduled to be performed in a future period as the plan information. The work schedule information includes a work item scheduled to be worked and a work schedule time scheduled to be worked. Here, the work schedule information includes work instruction information that has already been instructed, and planned order information that has not been instructed but is scheduled to work. Moreover, the collection | recovery difference process part 242 uses the expense budget information which shows the production expense budget in an object period as an annual budget plan.
Then, the recovery difference processing unit 242 calculates the recovery difference as shown in FIG.

The recovery standard cost calculation unit 2421 calculates the recovery standard cost actual value ((4) in FIG. 8) by multiplying the scheduled charge for the work item by the actual work time for each completed information regarding the past period. The recovery standard cost calculation unit 2421 calculates a recovery standard cost prediction value ((5) in FIG. 8) by multiplying the scheduled charge for the work item by the scheduled work time for each work schedule information for the future period.
The recovery actual cost calculation unit 2422 adds the recovery standard cost actual value ((4) in FIG. 8) and the recovery standard cost predicted value ((5) in FIG. 8) to the recovery standard cost ((6) in FIG. 8). ).

The actual recovery cost calculation unit 2422 directly sets the expense budget information as the actual recovery cost ((7) in FIG. 8).
Here, the expense budget information stores a production expense budget to be applied to human rights expenses, depreciation expenses, and other expenses. Actual labor costs are concentrated on the salary day of the month, and cost amortization and other costs tend to be concentrated at the end of the month. Therefore, the expense budget information is used as it is as the actual cost of recovery without considering the expenses already incurred at the time of forecasting during the month.
If the cost of the direct department for the target month recorded up to the processing date exceeds the expense budget information, the collected actual cost calculation unit 2422 will calculate the cost of the direct department for the target month recorded up to the processing date. May be used as the actual recovery cost.

  The recovery difference calculation unit 2423 calculates the recovery difference ((8) in FIG. 8) by subtracting the recovery standard cost ((4) in FIG. 8) from the actual recovery cost ((7) in FIG. 8).

FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram of processing of the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 according to the first embodiment.
FIG. 9A is an explanatory diagram of calculation of the manufacturing cost difference in the monthly processing, and FIG. 9B is an explanatory diagram of calculation of the manufacturing cost difference during the month by the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243.

At the time of monthly processing, the actual product and parts manufactured in the target period (July), the number of manufactured products, and the actual manufacturing costs (material costs and processing costs) Is included in the completed information.
Therefore, as shown in FIG. 9 (a), in the monthly processing, manufacturing is performed by multiplying the standard cost of the manufactured item by the manufacturing quantity for each completed information, using the completed information for which work has been performed during the target period. The standard cost ((1) in FIG. 9) is calculated, and the actual manufacturing cost ((2) in FIG. 9) is calculated by adding the manufacturing cost for each piece of work completed information. Then, when the actual manufacturing cost ((2) in FIG. 9) is subtracted from the standard manufacturing cost ((1) in FIG. 9), a manufacturing cost difference ((3) in FIG. 9) is obtained.

On the other hand, during the month, the manufactured items manufactured during the past period (from July 1 to July 7), the manufacturing quantity, and the manufacturing cost are included in the worked information. However, what is manufactured in the future period (from July 8 to July 31) is not included in the completed work information. Therefore, the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 predicts what is manufactured in the future period from the work schedule information.
Specifically, the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 uses work completed information including a work day in the past period as the result information. The work completion information includes manufactured manufactured items, manufactured manufacturing quantities, and manufacturing costs for manufacturing. Further, the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 uses work schedule information that is scheduled to be performed in the future period as the plan information. The work schedule information includes a manufactured item to be manufactured and a scheduled manufacturing quantity to be manufactured.

In addition, the manufacturing cost for products manufactured in the future period may be higher than the manufacturing cost (standard cost) required for the planned production quantity because of many defects in the work process, and conversely In some cases, the cost is less than the standard cost because the work can be performed accurately. Therefore, when the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 predicts the manufacturing cost in the future period, how much the manufacturing cost (actual cost) is required or how much less than the necessary manufacturing cost (standard cost)? A reference value indicating the ratio is used.
For example, the reference value is calculated for each manufactured item from the results in the past several months and stored in the reference value storage unit 2434.

  And the manufacturing cost difference process part 243 calculates a manufacturing cost difference as shown in FIG.9 (b).

The manufacturing standard cost calculation unit 2431 calculates the manufacturing standard cost actual value ((4) in FIG. 9) by multiplying the standard cost of the manufacturing item by the manufacturing quantity for each completed information regarding the past period. For the future period, the manufacturing standard cost calculation unit 2431 calculates the manufacturing standard cost prediction value ((5) in FIG. 9) by multiplying the standard cost of the manufacturing item by the manufacturing scheduled quantity for each work schedule information.
The manufacturing standard cost calculation unit 2431 adds the manufacturing standard cost actual value ((4) in FIG. 9) and the manufacturing standard cost predicted value ((5) in FIG. 9) to add the manufacturing standard cost ((6 in FIG. 9). )).

The actual manufacturing cost calculation unit 2432 calculates the actual manufacturing cost actual value ((7) in FIG. 9) by adding the manufacturing cost for each work completed information for the past period. For the future period, the actual manufacturing cost calculation unit 2432 multiplies the standard cost of the manufacturing item by the manufacturing scheduled quantity for each work schedule information, and further by the reference value of the manufacturing item (( 8)) is calculated.
The actual manufacturing cost calculation unit 2432 adds the actual manufacturing cost actual value ((7) in FIG. 9) and the actual manufacturing cost predicted value ((8) in FIG. 9) to add the actual manufacturing cost ((9) in FIG. 9). ).

  The manufacturing cost difference calculation unit 2433 calculates the manufacturing cost difference ((10) in FIG. 9) by subtracting the manufacturing standard cost ((6) in FIG. 9) from the actual manufacturing cost ((9) in FIG. 9).

  7 to 9 show the case where the actual cost is higher than the standard cost. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the standard cost may be higher than the actual cost.

*** Explanation of effects ***
As described above, the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to Embodiment 1 calculates the cost difference for each cost item using the actual information and the plan information. Then, the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 calculates the profit / loss for the target period using the calculated cost difference. Thereby, the profit and loss of the target period can be accurately predicted. As a result, it is possible to make an appropriate management decision at an early stage.

  Note that as the past period becomes longer and the future period becomes shorter, the ratio of the predicted value in the calculation of sales, cost, and cost difference decreases, and the ratio of the actual value increases, so the accuracy of the profit / loss predicted value increases. In other words, in the above explanation, profit / loss for July was predicted on July 8, but in the latter half of July, the ratio of the predicted value in the calculation of sales, cost and cost difference becomes small, Since the ratio of the actual value becomes large, the accuracy of the profit / loss forecast value becomes high.

Sales plan information is information input by a person in charge. Based on the sales plan information, work schedule information, order information, and the like are created by MRP (Materials Requirements Planning). Then, production operations and the like are performed based on the work schedule information. For this reason, sales plan information has had a large impact on business. However, the sales plan information may be input due to the convenience of the person in charge, and may not be accurate.
In the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200, the sales plan information is used to predict sales and costs, and is also used to create work schedule information and the like used to predict cost differences. Therefore, the sales plan information has a great influence on the accuracy of profit / loss prediction by the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200. The profit / loss prediction by the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 is information seen by the upper layer of a company such as a manager. If the accuracy of profit and loss prediction is low, the cause may be pursued. Therefore, the introduction of the profit / loss prediction device 200 also has an effect that the person in charge makes an effort to input the sales plan information accurately. As a result, the accuracy of the profit and loss prediction becomes high, and the business can be performed efficiently.

Embodiment 2. FIG.
In the first embodiment, the prediction of the profit and loss in the target period from the past start time to the future end time has been described. In the second embodiment, a description will be given of simulating a change in profit and loss in a target period by changing plan information.
In the second embodiment, the description will focus on the parts different from the first embodiment.

*** Explanation of configuration ***
FIG. 10 is a configuration diagram of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the second embodiment.
The profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 shown in FIG. 10 includes, in addition to the configuration of the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 shown in FIG. 2, a correction information input unit 280, an affected item identification unit 290, a sales fluctuation calculation unit 291 and a cost fluctuation calculation. Unit 292 and a cost difference variation calculation unit 293.

  The correction information input unit 280 receives input of correction information for correcting plan information such as sales plan information. Here, it is assumed that the correction information input unit 280 receives input of correction information for correcting the sales plan information.

  When the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information received by the correction information input unit 280, the affected item specifying unit 290 specifies an item in which at least one of sales, cost, and cost difference in the target period varies. Specifically, the affected item specifying unit 290 determines at least the sales, the cost, and the cost difference in the target period based on the items that are aggregated when the ERP 100 calculates the consolidated standard cost for the item corrected by the correction information. Identify items that either change. The consolidated standard price is a standard price when the entire consolidated group is viewed as one company.

  The sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291 calculates the fluctuation amount of sales when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose sales specified by the affected item specification unit 290 is changed.

  The cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292 calculates the cost fluctuation amount when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose cost specified by the affected item specification unit 290 is changed.

  The cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 calculates the change amount of the cost difference when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose cost difference specified by the affected item specifying unit is changed.

  As shown in FIG. 11, when the correction information input unit 280 receives the correction information, the sales calculation unit 220 recalculates the sales using the sales fluctuation amount calculated by the sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291. . In addition, the cost calculation unit 230 recalculates the cost using the cost fluctuation amount calculated by the cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292. The cost difference calculation unit 240 recalculates the cost difference in the target period using the change amount of the cost difference calculated by the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293. The profit and loss calculation unit 250 recalculates the profit and loss forecast value for the target period using the recalculated sales and cost and cost difference, and the output unit 260 outputs the recalculated profit and loss and sales and cost and cost difference. Is output.

*** Explanation of operation ***
FIG. 12 is a schematic explanatory diagram of the operation of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the second embodiment.
When sales plan information is modified, sales and costs change.
Further, when the sales plan information is corrected, other plan information such as work schedule information also changes, so that the cost difference also changes. In other words, when the sales plan information is revised, not only does the sales and cost of the product whose plan has been changed not only change, but also the purchase price difference and production of the semi-finished products and raw materials used in the manufacturing process and upstream process of the product. Cost differences and recovery differences will change.
Therefore, when the sales plan information is corrected, the profit / loss prediction device 200 identifies an item whose sales, cost, or various cost differences change due to the correction. The profit / loss forecasting apparatus 200 calculates the amount of change in sales for items for which sales are specified to change, calculates the amount of change in costs for items for which costs are specified to change, For items for which the cost variance is identified to vary, calculate the cost variance. Then, the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 recalculates the sales, the cost, and the cost difference based on each fluctuation amount, and calculates the profit / loss prediction value when the sales plan information is corrected.

FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram of an operation example of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the second embodiment.
FIG. 13 shows a case where the sales quantity of the product X is increased.
In FIG. 13, the receipt is a receipt billing in progress account, and the other account is another account transfer. In FIG. 13, the background of the fluctuating item is indicated by diagonal lines.
The sales company purchases the product X from the factory B and sells the product X to the customer. Since the product X is purchased and sold, the sales and cost of the sales company increase. Further, since the product X is purchased from the factory B, the purchase price difference of the sales company fluctuates.

  In the factory B, the product X is purchased from the factory A, and the product X is sold to a sales company. Since the product X is purchased and sold, the sales and cost of the factory B increase. Further, since the product X is purchased from the factory A, the purchase price difference of the factory B varies.

  In the factory A, the product X is produced using the raw material Y purchased from the outside, and the product X is sold to the factory B. Since the product X is produced and sold, the sales and cost of the factory A increase. In addition, since the product X is produced, the manufacturing cost difference and the recovery difference of the factory A vary. Further, since the raw material Y is purchased from the outside, the purchase price difference of the factory A varies.

FIG. 14 is a flowchart showing a simulation process according to the second embodiment.
(S1: Correction information input process)
The correction information input unit 280 receives input of correction information for correcting the sales plan information.

(S2: affected item identification process)
When the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information received in the correction information input process, the affected item specifying unit 290 specifies an item in which at least one of sales, cost, and cost difference in the target period varies.
The affected item specifying unit 290 specifies an item in which at least one of sales, cost, and cost difference fluctuates based on the details totaled when the ERP 100 calculates the consolidated standard cost. Therefore, after describing the details that are aggregated when the ERP 100 calculates the consolidated standard cost, the affected item identification unit 290 identifies an item in which at least one of sales, cost, and cost difference varies. explain.

FIG. 15 is a diagram showing items attached to the details of the cost accumulated when the consolidated standard cost is calculated by the ERP 100. FIG. 16 to FIG. 19 are diagrams showing examples of cost details that are stacked when the ERP 100 calculates the consolidated standard cost. 16 to 19 show details extracted when the parent item is the product X. FIG. 16 and 17 show items from a parent item to a child plant, and FIGS. 18 and 19 show items from a detail category to a quantity unit. In FIGS. 16 to 19, an item of item number is provided at the left end in order to show correspondence of the item.
The items attached to the cost item are the parent item, parent plant, item number, parent item type, profit center, multi-level BOM, child item, child plant, item category, and cost element. A child profit center, a child procurement type, a BOM parent item, a child item type, a quantity, and a unit of measure.

  Note that a plant is a management unit of a sales company, a warehouse, a factory, and the like, and is specifically defined as a stock management unit in this system. The profit center is a profit management unit.

  The parent item is an identifier of an item to be corrected by the correction information. The parent plant is an identifier of a base that manages the inventory quantity and amount of the parent item. The detail number is a number assigned to the extracted detail, and is a number assigned in ascending order from the parent item and the parent plant.

  The parent item type indicates whether the parent item is a product, a semi-finished product, or a raw material. Here, the product is represented by FERT, the semi-finished product is represented by HALB, and the raw material is represented by ROH. The profit center is an identifier of the profit center of the parent item. The multi-stage BOM represents the level of the BOM configuration, and the smaller the number, the higher the level.

  The child item is an identifier of an item that changes when the parent item is modified. The child plant is an identifier of a base that manages the inventory quantity and amount of child items.

  The item category indicates whether the item is related to internal activities, items, costs, internal activities and costs. Here, internal activities are represented by E, items are represented by M, expenses are represented by I, and internal activities and expenses are represented by X. The cost element indicates an account code corresponding to the item. Here, the product payout cost is represented by 5222, the semi-finished product payout cost is represented by 5221, the material cost is represented by 5220, the processing cost is represented by A *, and the free supply is represented by 5225. In addition, * means a wild card and means that any value after A represents a processing cost.

  The child profit center is an identifier of the profit center of the child item. The child procurement type indicates whether the procurement type is external procurement, in-house production, external procurement or in-house production. Here, external procurement is represented by F, in-house production is represented by E, and external procurement and in-house production is represented by X. The BOM parent item is an identifier of an item that is one level higher than the child item in the same plant. The BOM parent item is blank for the item of the highest item in the same plant. The child item type indicates whether the child item is a product, a semi-finished product, or a raw material. Here, the product is represented by FERT, the semi-finished product is represented by HALB, and the raw material is represented by ROH.

  The quantity represents a unit quantity for the highest level item and represents a variable quantity per unit quantity of the highest level item for the other items. In other words, the quantities for other details are quantities that change when the highest-order detail changes by one time the unit quantity. The unit of quantity is a unit of the value indicated in the quantity.

  Items other than the item number, child profit center, child item type, and BOM parent item are items included in the ERP 100 cost item, and can be obtained by simply extracting the ERP 100 item cost. . The detail number is obtained by numbering the extracted details in ascending order, for example, in the parent item and the parent plant. The child profit center and the child item type are obtained by searching the item master by the child item and the child plant. The BOM parent item is specified from the context of the specification. Specifically, an item having the same plant, item number smaller than its own item number, multi-stage BOM smaller than its own multi-stage BOM, and item different from its own item By searching from the number in descending order of the item number, the item of the found item is identified as the BOM parent item.

The multi-stage BOM represents a level in product units. On the other hand, the BOM parent item represents a parent item in a plant unit. Therefore, the BOM parent item may be blank and the multi-stage BOM may be other than 1.
If the child item is blank, it means that there is no child item. The same applies to the child procurement type and the child item type.

  Further, the items of the details shown in FIGS. 16 to 19 and the values set in these items may be other than the examples shown in FIGS. 16 to 19.

FIG. 20 is an explanatory diagram of a method for identifying an item in which at least one of sales, cost, and cost difference varies. 21 and 22 are explanatory diagrams of details and items specified by the specifying method shown in FIG. 20 for the cost details shown in FIGS. 16 to 19. 21 and 22, the item number item is provided at the left end as in FIGS.
The affected item identification unit 290 extracts details with the item modified by the modification information as the parent item. If there are a plurality of corrected items, for each item, all details with the item as the parent item are extracted. Then, the affected item specifying unit 290 determines, for each item, whether or not any of the conditions (1) to (8) shown in FIG. When any of the conditions (1) to (8) is met, the affected item identification unit 290 identifies that the item corresponding to the condition varies.

  The conditions (1) to (8) and items corresponding to the conditions will be described.

<Condition (1)> It is a specification at the highest level.
When the condition (1) is satisfied, the specification is specified as a specification that varies sales and costs. That is, the affected item specifying unit 290 specifies the item indicated by the child item of the highest-level specification as the sales target item and the cost target item whose sales and cost are changed. The specification at the highest level is a specification in which the multi-stage BOM in FIGS. 16 and 17 is 1.
21 and 22, the specification with the specification number 1 is specified as the specification that satisfies the condition (1).

<Condition (2)> It is not a specification at the highest level and the BOM parent item is blank. When the condition (2) is satisfied, the specification is specified as a specification that varies sales and costs. That is, the affected item specifying unit 290 specifies the item indicated by the child item of the item whose BOM parent item is blank as the sales target item and the cost target item whose sales and cost are fluctuated, not the item at the highest level. To do.
21 and 22, the details of the specification numbers 3, 26, and 31 are specified as the specification satisfying the condition (2).

<Condition (3)> The child procurement type is in-house production or in-house production and external procurement.
When the condition (3) is satisfied, the specification is specified as a specification that fluctuates the manufacturing cost difference. That is, the affected item specifying unit 290 specifies the item indicated by the child item of the specification including the in-house production at the procurement source as the manufacturing cost difference target item that fluctuates the manufacturing cost difference.
21 and 22, the details of the specification numbers 3, 10, 13, 22, and 26 are specified as the details satisfying the condition (3).

<Condition (4)> Item category is internal activity or internal activity and expense.
When the condition (4) is satisfied, the specification is specified as a specification that varies the recovery difference. In other words, the affected item specifying unit 290 specifies the item indicated by the child item of the specification relating to the internal activity as the collection difference target item that fluctuates the collection difference.
21 and 22, the details of the specification numbers 4, 5, 11, 12, 14, 15, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 37 to 40 are specified as the details that satisfy the condition (4).

<Condition (5)> The child procurement type is external procurement, the item category is expense, and the child item type is a raw material (i). Or the child procurement type is external procurement, the cost element is not blank, and the child item type is other than raw materials (ii).
Note that a specification in which the child procurement type is external procurement, the item category is an item, and the child item type is a raw material also satisfies the condition (5) (iii). There may be both a specification that satisfies (i) and a specification that satisfies (iii). In this case, only the specification that satisfies (i) is specified as the specification that satisfies the condition (5).
When the condition (5) is satisfied, the specification is specified as a specification that varies the purchase price difference. That is, the affected item specifying unit 290 is an item that is indicated by a child item of an item that is externally procured and that is indicated by a specification related to a raw material that indicates a cost, and that is an item that is externally procured and that has a cost element that is not set. Are identified as purchase price difference target items that vary the purchase price difference.
21 and 22, the details of the specification numbers 2, 7, 9, 17, 19, 21, 25, 30, 32, 34, and 36 are specified as the details satisfying the condition (5).

<Condition (6)> The child item type is a raw material, the BOM parent item exists, the account number set in the cost element is not 5225 indicating free payment, and the item category is an item about.
When the condition (6) is satisfied, the specification is specified as the specification in which the material cost varies. In other words, the affected item specifying unit 290 has a BOM parent item and is not provided free of charge, but an item indicated by a child item of a raw material item whose item category is an item is a material cost target item that fluctuates the material cost. Identify.
21 and 22, the details of the specification numbers 6, 8, 16, 18, 20, 29, 33, and 35 are specified as the details satisfying the condition (6).

<Condition (7)> The child item type is a raw material, the BOM parent item exists, and the account code set in the cost element is 5225 indicating free payment.
When the condition (7) is satisfied, the specification is specified as a specification that generates free payment. That is, the affected item specifying unit 290 specifies the item indicated by the child item of the raw material specification that is provided free of charge as a free supply target item for which free supply is generated.
21 and 22, there is no specification that satisfies the condition (7).

<Condition (8)> The child item type is a product or a semi-finished product, the BOM parent item exists, and the account code set in the cost element represents the in-house material cost.
If condition (8) is met, the specification is identified as a specification that causes semi-finished product consumption. In other words, the affected item specifying unit 290 specifies the item indicated by the child item of the product or the semi-finished product item that is the in-house material cost as the semi-finished product consumption target item that causes the semi-finished product consumption. To do. In-house material costs are semi-finished product payout costs.
21 and 22, the details of the specification numbers 10, 13, 22, and 25 are specified as the details satisfying the condition (8).

  Note that the “method for identifying an item in which at least one of sales, cost, and cost difference fluctuates” shown in FIG. 20 can be derived from the values of the items shown in FIGS. 16 to 19 and other information. As long as it is, it may be other than the example shown in FIG.

(S3: Sales fluctuation calculation processing)
The sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291 calculates the sales fluctuation amount for the item specified as the sales target item by the affected item specification unit 290.
The sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291 specifies the fluctuation amount of the sales per reference amount indicated in the quantity of the details for each item specified by the affected item specifying unit 290 that the sales change. Since the reference amount is the amount indicated in the quantity of the specification, it is a unit quantity if it is the highest level specification, and it is a variable quantity per unit quantity if it is another specification. The sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291 then multiplies the fluctuation amount per reference amount by the fluctuation quantity to calculate the sales fluctuation amount for the details. The variable quantity is a value indicating how many times the unit quantity of the parent item changes according to the correction information. For example, in the example of FIG. 13, when the unit quantity of product X is 30000, and the correction is made to increase the sales amount of product X by 180,000, product X varies by 6 times the unit quantity. The variable quantity is 6. On the other hand, if the sales amount of the product X is corrected to be reduced by 150,000, the product X varies by -5 times the unit quantity, so the variation quantity is -5. Then, the sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291 calculates the fluctuation amount of sales due to the fluctuation of the parent item by summing up the fluctuation amounts of sales calculated for each item.

  Here, when the sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291 specifies the fluctuation amount of the sales per reference quantity for each specification, the sales price per reference quantity of the specification specifies the sales fluctuation amount per reference quantity. The selling price per reference quantity is determined by searching the ERP 100 data according to the delivery date of the parent item to be corrected by the correction information. For example, in addition to the delivery date, the ERP 100 data may be determined by searching the sales organization, customer, and item, or the ERP 100 data may be searched by the sales organization, distribution channel, customer, item, and end user. In some cases, it is determined. This is because the sales price may differ depending on the delivery date.

(S4: Cost fluctuation calculation processing)
The cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292 calculates the cost fluctuation amount for the item specified as the cost target item by the affected item specification unit 290.
Similar to the sales fluctuation calculation unit 291, the cost fluctuation calculation unit 292 includes, for each item specified by the affected item identification unit 290 that the cost fluctuates, the cost fluctuation amount per reference amount indicated in the quantity of the item. Calculate Then, the cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292 multiplies the fluctuation amount per reference amount by the fluctuation quantity to calculate the cost fluctuation amount for the details. Then, the cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292 calculates the fluctuation amount of the cost due to the fluctuation of the parent item by summing up the fluctuation amounts of the cost calculated for each item.

  Here, when the cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292 specifies the cost fluctuation amount per reference amount for each item, the cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292 specifies the standard cost per reference amount of the item as the cost fluctuation amount per reference amount.

(S5: Cost difference change calculation processing)
The cost difference variation calculation process includes a purchase price difference variation calculation process in S51, a recovery difference variation calculation process in S52, and a manufacturing cost difference variation calculation process in S53.

(S51: purchase price difference variation calculation process)
The cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 calculates the fluctuation amount of the purchase price difference for the item specified as the purchase price difference target item by the affected item specification unit 290.
Similar to the sales fluctuation calculation unit 291, the cost difference fluctuation calculation unit 293 performs purchase for each reference amount specified by the quantity of each item specified by the affected item specification unit 290 that the purchase price difference changes. Calculate the change in price variance. Then, the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 calculates the change amount of the purchase price difference for the details by multiplying the change amount per reference amount by the change amount. Then, the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 calculates the change amount of the purchase price difference due to the change of the parent item by summing up the change amounts of the purchase price difference calculated for each item.

Here, when the cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 specifies the fluctuation amount of the purchase price difference per reference amount for each item, the purchase price per reference amount in the purchase information of the purchase price difference target item of the item, The difference from the standard price per reference quantity of the item subject to purchase price difference is specified as the amount of change in the purchase price difference per reference quantity. Here, the purchase information is information satisfying a predetermined condition among purchase schedule information indicating a plan to purchase a purchase price difference target item and purchase result information indicating a purchase result of the purchase price difference target item.
The information satisfying the predetermined conditions is purchase schedule information whose effective start date is before the scheduled delivery date (that is, the effective start date is the scheduled delivery date or the date before the scheduled delivery date). Purchase schedule information (a) indicating a plan to purchase a price difference target item and purchase record information (b) indicating a result of purchasing the purchase price difference target item. The effective start date means the date on which the purchase schedule information becomes effective. Of the purchase schedule information in (a) and the purchase record information in (b), the date of the effective start date of the purchase schedule information in (a) and the recording date of the purchase record information in (b) is the date of the information. Uses the latest information as purchase information. Here, the effective start date is included in the purchase schedule information, and the scheduled delivery date is acquired from the data of each ordering transaction. This is because the purchase price may be different, and the fluctuation amount is calculated using the purchase price considered to be closer to the actual situation.

In other words, the cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 determines the purchase price per price in the purchase information for the purchase price difference target item and the reference amount for the purchase price difference target item for the purchase price difference among the cost differences. The fluctuation amount is calculated by multiplying the difference from the standard price per product by the fluctuation quantity of the purchase price difference target item.
If the purchase price difference target item is outsourced, the purchase price difference per reference amount is further specified in consideration of free material costs and scrap. Specifically, the purchase price difference is the difference between the standard price per standard quantity and the standard price of scrap, and the sum of the purchase price per standard quantity and the free material cost. Calculated by multiplying by the variable quantity. The item subcontracting is to supply the material of the product to the supplier and purchase the product from the supplier. Scrap is material that is to be discarded. However, scrap is used if it can be used before disposal.

(S52: Collection difference fluctuation calculation processing)
The cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 calculates the change amount of the recovery difference for the item specified as the recovery difference target item by the affected item specification unit 290.
Similar to the sales fluctuation calculation unit 291, the cost difference fluctuation calculation unit 293 is configured to collect the collection difference per reference amount indicated in the quantity of each item specified by the affected item identification unit 290 that the collection difference varies. Calculate the amount of change. Then, the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 calculates the change amount of the recovery difference for the details by multiplying the change amount per reference amount by the change amount. Then, the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 calculates the change amount of the recovery difference due to the change of the parent item by summing up the change amounts of the recovery difference calculated for each item.

Here, when the cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 specifies the fluctuation amount of the recovery difference per reference amount for each detail, the average per past reference amount of the past processing costs for the recovery difference target item of the detail. The value is specified as the amount of change in the recovery difference per reference amount. The average value of the past processing costs per reference amount is calculated by multiplying the average value of work hours per reference amount by the scheduled charge. When calculating the average value of the work time, only the value excluding a value greatly deviating from the average value for each instruction may be targeted. For example, the normal distribution may be used to target only those whose deviation from the average value falls within a range of ± 1σ. Further, instead of the average value of the working time per reference quantity, a standard manhour of standard cost per reference quantity may be used.
As shown in FIG. 8B, the predicted value of the collection difference is calculated by the difference between the amount indicated by the expense budget information and the processing cost obtained by the product of the scheduled charge and the work time. The cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 uses the average value of the processing cost as the fluctuation amount of the recovery difference. The debit expense budget information shown in FIG. 8B does not change even if the sales plan information is corrected. This is because only the processing cost of the credit fluctuates.

  That is, the cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 sets the fluctuation quantity of the recovery difference target item to the average value of the processing cost per reference amount in the past performance information for the recovery difference target item for the recovery difference among the cost differences. Multiply to calculate the amount of change.

(S53: Manufacturing cost difference variation calculation process)
The cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 calculates the change amount of the manufacturing cost difference for the item specified as the manufacturing cost difference target item by the affected item specifying unit 290.
Similar to the sales fluctuation calculation unit 291, the cost difference fluctuation calculation unit 293 performs, for each item that the affected item specification unit 290 specifies that the manufacturing cost difference fluctuates, the production per reference quantity indicated in the quantity of the item. Calculate the variance of the cost variance. Then, the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 calculates the change amount of the manufacturing cost difference for the details by multiplying the change amount per reference amount by the change amount. Then, the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 calculates the change amount of the manufacturing cost difference caused by the change of the parent item by summing up the change amounts of the manufacturing cost difference calculated for each item.

  Here, when the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 specifies the change amount of the manufacturing cost difference per reference amount for each item, the cost difference described in the first embodiment is applied to the manufacturing cost difference target item of the item. The average value of the manufacturing cost difference calculated by the calculation unit 240 per reference amount is set as the variation amount of the manufacturing cost difference per reference amount. When obtaining the average value, only the value excluding a value greatly deviating from the average value may be targeted. For example, the normal distribution may be used to target only those whose deviation from the average value falls within a range of ± 1σ.

  That is, the cost difference variation calculation unit 293 calculates the manufacturing cost for the manufacturing cost difference target item in the target period calculated based on the sales plan information before the correction information is corrected for the manufacturing cost difference among the cost differences. The fluctuation amount is calculated by multiplying the average value per difference amount by the fluctuation quantity of the item subject to manufacturing cost variance.

  If there is an item that is determined to satisfy the condition (6) and specified that the material cost will fluctuate, calculate the fluctuation amount of the material cost, and take into account the calculated fluctuation amount of the material cost. The amount of change may be calculated. In this case, the calculation of the manufacturing cost difference described in the first embodiment may be performed again using the material cost changed by the amount of change, and the average value per reference amount of the manufacturing cost difference may be calculated.

(S6: Sales calculation processing)
The sales calculator 220 adds the sales fluctuation calculated by the sales fluctuation calculator 291 to the sales calculated in the first embodiment, and recalculates the sales for the target period.

(S7: Costing process)
The cost calculator 230 adds the cost fluctuation calculated by the cost fluctuation calculator 292 to the cost calculated in the first embodiment, and recalculates the cost for the target period.

(S8: Cost difference calculation processing)
The cost difference calculation unit 240 recalculates the purchase price difference in the target period by adding the change amount of the purchase price difference calculated by the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 to the purchase price difference calculated in the first embodiment. . Similarly, the cost difference calculation unit 240 recalculates the recovery difference in the target period by adding the change amount of the recovery difference calculated by the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 to the recovery difference calculated in the first embodiment. . Similarly, the cost difference calculation unit 240 adds the fluctuation amount of the manufacturing cost difference calculated by the cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 to the manufacturing cost difference calculated in the first embodiment, thereby calculating the manufacturing cost difference in the target period. Recalculate.

(S9: Profit and loss calculation processing)
The profit / loss calculation unit 250 subtracts the cost recalculated by the cost calculation unit 230 from the sales recalculated by the sales calculation unit 220, and further calculates the cost difference for each cost item recalculated by the cost difference calculation unit 240. Subtract and calculate the forecasted profit / loss for the period.

*** Explanation of effects ***
As described above, the profit and loss forecasting apparatus 200 according to Embodiment 2 corrects the plan information and calculates the profit and loss forecast value for the target period based on the corrected plan information. This makes it possible to simulate how the profit / loss changes when the plan information is corrected when the predicted profit / loss is lower than the plan.

In particular, the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the second embodiment can identify items that are affected by the change of the sales plan information without executing the processing by MRP. Therefore, it is possible to perform a highly accurate simulation without executing processing by MRP.
Processing by MRP has a high processing load and takes a very long time. However, since the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the second embodiment does not need to execute processing by MRP, it is possible to obtain a simulation result in a short time. Therefore, the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the second embodiment is effective in a situation where it is desired to quickly consider countermeasures such as management judgment.

Embodiment 3 FIG.
In the second embodiment, it has been described that the change in profit and loss in the target period is simulated by changing the plan information. It is conceivable to consider better countermeasures by repeatedly changing the plan information and performing simulations. In the third embodiment, a method for efficiently processing when performing repetitive simulation will be described.

*** Explanation of configuration ***
FIG. 23 is a configuration diagram of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the third embodiment.
A profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 shown in FIG. 23 includes a quick reference table storage unit 294 in addition to the configuration of the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 shown in FIG.

  The quick reference table storage unit 294 is a storage device that stores a quick reference table 300 indicating items or the like previously specified by the affected item specifying unit 290 for each parent item that is an item whose sales plan information has been corrected. More precisely, the quick reference table storage unit 294 displays information obtained by the processes of the affected item specifying unit 290, the sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291, the cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292, and the cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293. It is a storage device that stores a quick reference table 300 shown.

FIG. 24 is an explanatory diagram of the quick reference table 300.
The quick reference table 300 shows, for each item whose parent item is the item corrected by the correction information, the item that the item changes and the amount of change per reference amount of the item that the item changes. In FIG. 24, items between the parent item and the quantity unit shown in FIG. 15 are omitted for simplicity.
The quick reference table 300 illustrated in FIG. 24 illustrates the details of the specification numbers 1 to 5 illustrated in FIG. 21. In FIG. 21, X marks are attached to the places assigned with the numbers (1) to (8), that is, the places where it is determined that the conditions (1) to (8) are satisfied. In addition, the amount of change per reference amount of the item corresponding to the portion marked with X is shown.

*** Explanation of operation ***
The affected item specifying unit 290 extracts the details having the item corrected by the correction information as the parent item by the process described in the second embodiment, and when the items that fluctuate are specified for each extracted item, the extracted items are extracted. A quick reference table 300 indicating items that vary with respect to the details is stored in the quick reference table storage unit 294.
Sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291, cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292, and cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 are reference amounts obtained at the time of calculation when the fluctuation amount is calculated by the processing described in the second embodiment. The amount of change per win is added to the quick reference table 300. In FIG. 24, the fluctuation amount per reference amount obtained at the time of calculation is added from the sales fluctuation amount to the material cost fluctuation amount.
Thereby, the quick reference table 300 regarding the item corrected by the correction information is completed.

When the details related to the item corrected by the correction information are stored in the quick reference table storage unit 294 as the quick reference table 300, in S2 of FIG. 14, the affected item specifying unit 290 replaces the process described in the second embodiment. By searching the quick reference table 300, an item in which at least one of sales, cost, and cost difference in the target period varies is specified. In other words, when the item once corrected is corrected again, the affected item specifying unit 290 uses the quick reference table 300 to specify the item that fluctuates according to the quick reference table 300.
Specifically, the affected item specifying unit 290 specifies an item with an X mark for each item in the quick reference table 300 whose parent item is the item corrected by the correction information. Is identified.

When the item with the item corrected by the correction information as a parent item is stored in the quick reference table storage unit 294 as the quick reference table 300, in S3, S4, and S5 in FIG. The amount calculation unit 292 and the cost difference change amount calculation unit 293 use the quick reference table 300 to calculate each change amount. That is, when the item once corrected is corrected again, the sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291, the cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292, and the cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 use the quick reference table 300, The amount of change is calculated according to Table 300.
Specifically, the sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291, the cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292, and the cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 change to the fluctuation amount per reference amount of the item that the details of the quick reference table 300 fluctuate. Multiply by quantity to calculate the amount of change for that item.

*** Explanation of effects ***
As described above, the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the third embodiment uses the quick reference table 300 when a once corrected item is corrected again. This makes it possible to perform simulation efficiently.

In the above description, it is assumed that the quick-view table 300 is created for the items that have been simulated and once corrected. However, the quick reference table 300 may be created for all items in advance. For example, the quick reference table 300 may be created for all items by nighttime batch processing or the like. As a result, it is possible to efficiently perform the simulation for the item to be corrected for the first time.
The quick reference table 300 may be created in advance only for some items, such as items that are likely to be corrected, not all items.

FIG. 25 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 illustrated in the first to third embodiments.
The profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 is a computer. Each element of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 can be realized by a program.
As a hardware configuration of the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200, an arithmetic device 901, an external storage device 902, a main storage device 903, a communication device 904, and an input / output device 905 are connected to the bus.

The arithmetic device 901 is a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that executes a program. The external storage device 902 is, for example, a ROM (Read Only).
Memory), flash memory, hard disk device, and the like. The main storage device 903 is, for example, a RAM (Random Access Memory). The communication device 904 is, for example, a communication board. The input / output device 905 is, for example, a mouse, a keyboard, a display device, or the like.

The program is normally stored in the external storage device 902, and is loaded into the main storage device 903 and sequentially read into the arithmetic device 901 and executed.
The program includes an information acquisition unit 210, a sales calculation unit 220, a cost calculation unit 230, a cost difference calculation unit 240, a profit and loss calculation unit 250, an output unit 260, a correction information input unit 280, an affected item specification unit 290, a sales fluctuation amount calculation unit. 291 is a program that realizes the functions described as the cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292 and the cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293.
Furthermore, an operating system (OS) is also stored in the external storage device 902. At least a part of the OS is loaded into the main storage device 903, and the arithmetic device 901 executes the above program while executing the OS.
In the description of the above embodiment, the information that the standard cost storage unit 270 and the quick reference table storage unit 294 store, the information acquisition unit 210, the sales calculation unit 220, the cost calculation unit 230, the cost difference calculation unit 240, Profit and loss calculation unit 250, output unit 260, correction information input unit 280, affected item specification unit 290, sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 291, cost fluctuation amount calculation unit 292, cost difference fluctuation amount calculation unit 293 obtain, calculate, output , Information received, specified, etc. are stored in the main storage device 903 as files.

  It should be noted that the amount of information of the performance information and the plan information is very large and takes a long time for calculation. Therefore, for example, performance information and plan information may be stored in an in-memory database. Thereby, calculation time can be shortened. An in-memory database is a database constructed by storing all data in a main memory.

  The configuration of FIG. 25 is merely an example of the hardware configuration of the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200, and the hardware configuration of the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 is not limited to the configuration illustrated in FIG. Also good.

  100 ERP, 200 Profit and loss forecasting device, 210 Information acquisition unit, 220 Sales calculation unit, 230 Cost calculation unit, 240 Cost difference calculation unit, 241 Purchase price difference processing unit, 2411 Purchase standard cost calculation unit, 2412 Purchase actual cost calculation unit, 2413 Purchase price difference calculation unit, 242 Collection difference processing unit, 2421 Collection standard cost calculation unit, 2422 Collection actual cost calculation unit, 2423 Collection difference calculation unit, 243 Production cost difference processing unit, 2431 Production standard cost calculation unit, 2432 Production actual Cost calculation unit, 2433 Manufacturing cost difference calculation unit, 2434 Reference value storage unit, 250 Profit / loss calculation unit, 260 output unit, 270 Standard cost storage unit, 280 Correction information input unit, 290 Affected item specification unit, 291 Sales fluctuation amount calculation unit 292 Cost variation calculation part 293 Cost difference fluctuation calculation part 2 4 Quick reference table storage unit, 300 Quick reference table, S1 correction information input process, S2 affected item identification process, S3 sales fluctuation calculation process, S4 cost fluctuation calculation process, S5 cost difference fluctuation calculation process, S51 purchase price difference fluctuation Calculation process, S52 Recovery difference change calculation process, S53 Manufacturing cost difference change calculation process, S6 Sales calculation process, S7 Cost calculation process, S8 Cost difference calculation process, S9 Profit / loss calculation process.

Claims (13)

It is a profit and loss forecasting device that forecasts profit and loss for the target period,
A correction information input unit that receives input of correction information for correcting sales plan information;
When the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information received by the correction information input unit, an affected item specifying unit for specifying an item whose cost difference in the target period varies;
A cost difference change amount calculation unit for calculating a change amount of the cost difference when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose cost difference specified by the affected item specification unit is changed;
A cost difference calculation unit for calculating a cost difference in the target period using a cost difference change amount calculated by the cost difference change amount calculation unit;
A profit / loss prediction apparatus comprising: a profit / loss calculation unit that calculates a profit / loss prediction value for the target period using the cost difference calculated by the cost difference calculation unit. The affected item specifying unit specifies an item whose sales in the target period fluctuate when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information,
The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
A sales fluctuation amount calculation unit that calculates a fluctuation amount of sales when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose sales specified by the affected item specification unit is changed,
Using the sales fluctuation amount calculated by the sales fluctuation amount calculation unit, and a sales calculation unit for calculating sales in the target period,
The profit / loss prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the profit / loss calculation unit calculates a profit / loss prediction value in the target period using the sales calculated by the sales calculation unit. The affected item specifying unit specifies an item whose cost in the target period fluctuates when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information,
The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
A cost fluctuation amount calculation unit for calculating a fluctuation amount of the cost when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose cost specified by the affected item specification unit is fluctuated;
A cost calculation unit for calculating a cost in the target period using a cost change amount calculated by the cost change amount calculation unit,
The profit / loss prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the profit / loss calculation unit calculates a profit / loss prediction value in the target period using the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit. The affected item specifying unit specifies an item whose cost difference in the target period fluctuates on the basis of details totaled when calculating a consolidated standard price for the item corrected by the correction information. The profit and loss forecasting apparatus according to any one of the preceding items. The affected item identification unit purchases the item indicated by the item related to the raw material indicating the cost and the item indicated by the item related to the raw material indicating the cost and the item related to the item other than the raw material which is the external procurement and whose cost element is not set yet. The profit / loss prediction apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the profit / loss prediction device is specified as a purchase price difference target item that varies the difference. The profit and loss forecasting apparatus according to claim 4 or 5, wherein the affected item specifying unit specifies an item indicated by a specification including in-house production at a supplier as a manufacturing cost difference target item that fluctuates a manufacturing cost difference. The profit and loss forecasting apparatus according to any one of claims 4 to 6, wherein the affected item specifying unit specifies an item indicated by a specification related to an internal activity as a collection difference target item that fluctuates a collection difference. The cost difference variation calculation unit calculates the purchase price difference among the cost differences per purchase price per reference quantity in the purchase information for the purchase price difference target item and per reference quantity for the purchase price difference target item. The profit and loss forecasting apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein the fluctuation amount is calculated by multiplying the difference from the standard price by the fluctuation quantity of the purchase price difference target item. The purchase information is purchase schedule information whose effective start date is a date before the scheduled delivery date, and purchase schedule information indicating a plan to purchase the purchase price difference target item, and the purchase price difference target item is purchased. The information having the latest date when the effective start date of the purchase schedule information and the recording date of the purchase record information are set as the date of the information among the purchase record information indicating the record. Profit and loss forecast device. The cost difference variation calculation unit calculates, for the recovery difference among the cost differences, the average value of the processing cost per reference amount in the past actual information on the recovery difference target item, and the variable quantity of the recovery difference target item. The profit and loss forecasting apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the fluctuation amount is calculated by multiplying by. The cost difference variation calculation unit manufactures the manufacturing cost difference target item in the target period calculated based on the sales plan information before the correction by the correction information for the manufacturing cost difference among the cost differences. The profit and loss forecasting apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 10, wherein the fluctuation amount is calculated by multiplying an average value per reference amount of the cost difference by a fluctuation quantity of the manufacturing cost difference target item. The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
For each item for which sales plan information has been corrected, a quick reference table storage unit is provided for storing a quick reference table indicating the items specified in the past by the affected item specification unit,
The said influence item specific | specification part specifies the item which fluctuates according to the said quick reference table, when the said quick reference table memory | storage part has memorize | stored the quick reference table about the item by which sales plan information was corrected by the said correction information. The profit and loss forecasting apparatus according to any one of 1 to 11. A profit and loss forecasting program for forecasting profit and loss for the target period,
Correction information input processing for receiving input of correction information for correcting sales plan information;
When the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information received in the correction information input process, an affected item specifying process for specifying an item whose cost difference in the target period fluctuates;
A cost difference change calculation process for calculating a change amount of the cost difference when the sales plan information is corrected by the correction information for the item whose cost difference specified by the affected item specifying process is changed;
A cost difference calculation process for calculating a cost difference in the target period using a change amount of the cost difference calculated in the cost difference change calculation process;
A profit / loss prediction program for causing a computer to execute a profit / loss calculation process for calculating a profit / loss forecast value in the target period using the cost difference calculated in the cost difference calculation process.

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