JP2003256506A - Calculating method, calculating device, computer program and recording media - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a calculating method, a calculating device, a computer program and a recording media for calculating a prediction amount to properly evaluate a situation of energy saving of consumption objects such as gas, electricity, water and the like by family. <P>SOLUTION: This calculating device receives the amounts of consumption in a plurality of months, the attribute and a prediction month (S1), extracts the standard corresponding to each month from the standard database (S2), calculates a value of a ratio of the consumption to the extracted standard (S3), and calculates a harmonic average value of the values of the calculated ratio (S4). Then the standard corresponding to the prediction month is extracted from the standard database (S5), the prediction amount is calculated by multiplying the calculated harmonic average value by the extracted standard (S6), the calculated prediction value is outputted (S7), further the consumption of the prediction month is received (S8), the prediction amount and the received consumption are compared (S9), and a result of comparison is outputted as a result of evaluation (S10). <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2003,JPO

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a calculation method for calculating a predicted amount of consumption of gas, electricity, tap water, or the like in a unit period such as a month, a calculation device to which the calculation method is applied, and a device thereof. Regarding a computer program for realizing the program, and a recording medium having the program recorded therein, in particular, a calculation method, a calculation device, and a computer program for calculating a predicted amount that serves as a criterion for evaluation that reflects the transition status of the consumption amount of a consumption target. And a recording medium.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art There is great interest in reducing consumption of gas, electricity, tap water, etc., which is a so-called energy saving, and even in general households, the consumption of consumption can be reduced by comparing it with a standard amount. There is an evaluation of how much energy has been achieved.

The standard amount for comparison is the number of family members,
It is obtained for each unit period such as a month according to attributes such as family structure, dwelling form and dwelling area.For example, when evaluating the amount of consumption of a household with a certain attribute in a certain month, , Compared with the standard amount of the corresponding month with the same attribute, as a result, if the consumption amount is 1.2 times or more of the standard amount, it is evaluated as overuse, and if it is 0.8 times or less It is evaluated that energy saving is progressing.

[0004]

However, when comparing the standard amount obtained for each attribute and unit period as a criterion for evaluation, energy saving is promoted and the consumption amount is stably lower than the standard amount. For households, even if the consumption increases, they will be given a good evaluation, so there is a problem that the evaluation is not appropriate for that household.

The present invention has been made in view of such circumstances, and it is possible to calculate the past transition of the consumption amount of a household to be evaluated.
Compared with the standard amount for each corresponding month, calculate the statistical value of the comparison result such as the ratio value calculated by the comparison, and based on the calculated statistical value and the standard amount corresponding to the month to be evaluated, the consumption amount By applying the calculation method that can perform an appropriate evaluation that takes the past results into consideration by calculating the predicted amount of, and setting the calculated predicted amount as the reference value used for comparison with the actual consumption amount. The main purpose is to provide the calculation device, a computer program for realizing the device, and a recording medium recording the program.

Further, by considering the consumption amount of the consumption target as the consumption speed in the unit period and using the harmonic mean as the statistical value, it is possible to calculate an appropriate predicted amount as a reference for comparison, and the harmonic mean is It is another object to provide a calculation device or the like capable of promoting energy saving because it does not show a value higher than the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean.

[0007]

According to a first aspect of the present invention, there is provided a calculation method for calculating a predicted amount of consumption of a consumption object in a unit period. It is characterized in that it is compared with the standard amount of consumption, the statistical value of each of the compared results is calculated, and the predicted amount is calculated based on the calculated statistical value and the standard amount of the unit period to be predicted.

In the calculation method according to the first aspect of the present invention, the consumption amount of the consumption object in a plurality of unit periods, for example, the consumption amount of gas, electricity or tap water for each past month, is calculated in advance, For each household, by comparing with the standard amount for each attribute such as dwelling form and dwelling area, and making a prediction based on the statistical value of the result calculated by the comparison and the standard amount corresponding to the unit period to be predicted, It is possible to make an appropriate prediction in consideration of past results.

A calculation device according to a second aspect of the present invention is a calculation device for calculating a predicted amount of consumption of a consumption object in a unit period,
The standard amount database that records the standard amount of consumption for each unit period, the means for receiving the consumption amount of multiple unit periods, and the standard amount corresponding to each unit period of the received consumption amount A unit for extracting from the quantity database, a unit for calculating the value of the ratio of the received consumption amount to the extracted standard amount, a unit for calculating a statistical value of the calculated ratio value, and a unit period to be predicted Means for extracting the standard amount corresponding to the standard amount database,
And a means for calculating a predicted amount based on the calculated statistical value and the extracted standard amount.

In the calculating device according to the second aspect of the present invention, the consumption amount of the consumption object in a plurality of unit periods, for example, the consumption amount of gas, electricity or tap water for each past month, is calculated in advance, For each household, by comparing with the standard amount for each attribute such as dwelling form and dwelling area, and making a prediction based on the statistical value of the result calculated by the comparison and the standard amount corresponding to the unit period to be predicted, It is possible to make an appropriate prediction in consideration of past results.

The calculation device according to the third aspect of the present invention further comprises, in the second aspect of the present invention, means for receiving the consumption amount in the unit period in which the prediction amount is predicted, and means for comparing the calculated prediction amount and the received consumption amount. Is characterized by.

In the calculation device according to the third aspect of the present invention, by using the predicted amount as the reference value for comparison, it is possible for each household to make an appropriate evaluation in consideration of past performance.

A calculation device according to a fourth invention is characterized in that, in the second invention or the third invention, the statistic value is a harmonic mean value of respective ratio values.

In the calculation device according to the fourth aspect of the present invention, the consumption amount of the consumption target is regarded as the consumption speed in the unit period and the harmonic average is used as the statistic so that the arithmetic average and the synergistic average are appropriate as the reference for comparison. Since the reference value does not become higher than the average value, it is possible to promote energy saving.

A computer program according to a fifth aspect of the present invention is a computer program for causing a computer to calculate a predicted value of a consumption amount of a unit period consumption target, and a procedure for causing the computer to accept consumption amounts of a plurality of unit periods, and a computer. The procedure for extracting the standard amount corresponding to each unit period of the received consumption amount from the standard amount database that records the standard amount of the consumed amount of each unit period, and the computer And a procedure for calculating the ratio value of each of the plurality of standard amounts,
The procedure for causing the computer to calculate the statistical value of each calculated ratio value, the procedure for causing the computer to extract the standard amount corresponding to the unit period to be predicted from the standard amount database, and the computer for calculating the calculated statistical value and And a procedure for calculating a predicted amount based on the extracted standard amount.

In the computer program according to the fifth aspect of the present invention, the computer operates as a calculation device of the present invention by being executed by a computer such as a general-purpose computer. Monthly consumption of gas, electricity, or tap water is compared with the standard amount for each attribute, such as the number of family members, family structure, housing form and housing area, which is calculated in advance, and the statistical value of the result calculated by comparison By making a prediction based on the standard amount corresponding to the unit period to be predicted, it is possible for each household to make an appropriate prediction in consideration of past performance.

The computer-readable recording medium according to the sixth aspect of the present invention is a computer-readable recording medium in which a computer program for causing a computer to calculate a predicted value of a consumption amount of a consumption object in a unit period is recorded. In a simple recording medium, a procedure for causing a computer to accept consumption amounts in a plurality of unit periods, and a standard amount corresponding to each unit period of the received consumption amounts in the computer,
A procedure for extracting from the standard quantity database that records the standard quantity of consumption for each unit period; a procedure for causing a computer to calculate the ratio value of each of the received plurality of consumption quantities and the extracted plurality of standard quantities; , The procedure for calculating the statistical value of each calculated ratio value, and the computer,
Record a computer program that includes a procedure for extracting a standard amount corresponding to a unit period to be predicted from a standard amount database, and a procedure for causing a computer to calculate a predicted amount based on the calculated statistical value and the extracted standard amount. It is characterized by being.

In the computer-readable recording medium according to the sixth aspect of the present invention, the computer operates as the calculation device of the present invention by executing the recorded computer program on the computer such as a general-purpose computer. , Standards for each attribute such as the number of family members, family structure, housing form, and living area, which are obtained in advance for consumption amount of consumption objects in a plurality of unit periods, for example, past monthly consumption amount of gas, electricity, or tap water By comparing with the amount and making a prediction based on the statistical value of the result calculated by the comparison and the standard amount corresponding to the unit period to be predicted, for each household, make an appropriate prediction in consideration of past performance It is possible.

[0019]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION The present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings showing the embodiments thereof. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a system using the calculation device of the present invention. Figure 1
Medium 10 is a calculation device of the present invention using a computer such as a general-purpose computer, and the calculation device 10 is a supply enterprise that supplies consumption targets such as gas, electricity, and tap water, and related enterprises related to the supply enterprise. It is managed by a business entity such as the body.

The calculation device 10 includes a computer program PG for the calculation device of the present invention and an auxiliary storage means 12 such as a CD-ROM drive for reading information from a recording medium REC such as a CD-ROM in which information such as data is recorded. Computer program P read by storage means 12
Recording means 13 such as a hard disk for recording information such as G and data, RAM 14 for temporarily storing information, LA
The communication means 15 is connected to the communication network NW such as N, the input means 16 such as a mouse and a keyboard, and the output means 17 such as a monitor and a printer. Then, the computer program PG of the present invention recorded in the recording means 13 and information such as data are read and stored in the RAM 14 to store CP.
By executing by U11, the general-purpose computer
It operates as the calculation device 10 of the present invention.

A recording device 20 such as a database server computer is connected to the communication network NW, and the recording device 20 comprises a CPU 21, a recording means 22, a RAM 23 and a communication means 24, and one of the recording areas of the recording means 22. Department is
It is used as various databases such as the standard amount database 20a that records the standard amount of consumption object for each unit period such as a month, which is obtained in advance, for each attribute such as the number of family members, family structure, housing form, and housing area. Quantity database 2
Various databases such as 0a can be accessed from the calculation device 10. In addition, a part of the recording area of the recording means 22 provided in the recording device 20 is stored in the standard amount database 2
Instead of using it as various databases such as 0a, a part of the recording area of the recording unit 13 included in the calculation device 10 may be used as various databases and accessed.

Next, the processing of the calculation device 10 of the present invention will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. An operator who operates the calculation device 10 of the present invention, for example, in response to a request from a customer to obtain a predicted amount of consumption to be consumed, the consumption of the customer in the past months, the family composition of the customer, and the residence. The attributes such as the form and the month to be predicted are input to the calculation device 10.

The calculation device 10 receives consumption amounts of a plurality of months, attributes and months to be predicted (step S1), and extracts from the standard amount database 20a the standard amount corresponding to each accepted month in the received attributes ( Step S
2) Then, the value of the ratio of the received consumption amount to the extracted standard amount is calculated (step S3), and the harmonic mean value is calculated as the statistical value of the calculated ratio value (step S4).
Then, a standard amount corresponding to the received month to be predicted in the received attribute is extracted from the standard amount database 20a (step S5), and the predicted amount is calculated by multiplying the extracted standard amount by the harmonic mean value calculated in step S4. (Step S6), the calculated prediction amount is output (step S6).
7).

Further, when the actual consumption amount of the predicted month is found and the energy saving is evaluated based on the found consumption amount, the consumption amount of the predicted month is input to the calculation device 10. The calculation device 10 receives the monthly consumption amount for which the predicted amount is predicted (step S8), and compares the predicted amount calculated in step S7 with the received consumption amount (step S8).
9), and outputs the comparison result as an evaluation result (step S10). As an example of evaluation by comparison, how many times the actual consumption is compared with the predicted amount is calculated, and if 1.2 times or more, it is evaluated as overuse, and if 0.8 times or less, it is saved. It is evaluated that energy conversion is progressing.

It should be noted that instead of inputting the consumption amount, a predetermined database in which the consumption amount of the customer is recorded may be accessed in advance and the obtained value may be accepted, or the communication amount such as the Internet is connected. Alternatively, the service may be provided as an ASP (Application Service Provider) that performs online evaluation.

Next, a specific example of calculation of the prediction amount by the calculation device 10 of the present invention will be described.

[0027]

[Table 1]

Table 1 shows the standard amount from October to February, the consumption amount from October to January, and the forecast amount in February. In Table 1, the column labeled as standard amount is the standard amount from October to February extracted in step S2 in FIG. 2, and the column labeled as consumption is step S1.
In the column indicated with the consumption amount and the ratio value received in step S4, the value of the ratio of the consumption amount to the standard amount calculated in step S3 is indicated in the column, and in the column indicated with the harmonic mean value in step S4. The respective harmonic mean values calculated as statistical values are shown. Further, the column shown as the arithmetic mean value as a reference value shows the value when the arithmetic mean value is calculated as the statistical value in step S4. The harmonic mean value for February is calculated by the following formula 1, and the predicted amount is calculated by formula 2.

[0029]   1 / γ (2) = 1/4 [1 / γ (10) + 1 / γ (11) + 1 / γ (12) + 1 / γ (1)] …… Equation 1     A (2) = 62 × γ (2) …… Equation 2 However, γ (m): consumption per m month / standard amount A (m): m monthly forecast

Regarding the consumption amount from October to January in Table 1, the values of October, November and January are stably lower than the standard amount, but only in December are the singular values. Takes a very large value that should be considered. When the arithmetic mean value is used, the forecasted amount for February is 64.8, which is larger than the standard amount because it is strongly influenced by the value for December. Is smaller than the arithmetic mean, and the forecasted amount for February is 58.0. Then, as shown in steps S8 to S10, the predicted amount is compared with the actual consumption amount, and the result is output as the evaluation result.

The harmonic mean value and the arithmetic mean value have the relationship shown in the following equation (3). [1 / nΣ1 / Xj] ⁻¹ ≦ 1 / n ΣXj …… Equation 3

In Equation 3, the left side shows the harmonic mean value and the right side shows the arithmetic mean value. As shown in Equation 3, the harmonic mean value is always less than or equal to the arithmetic mean value. Therefore, as a criterion for promoting energy saving, a small criterion value that does not hinder the lives of customers is set. It is a preferable value in terms of presentation.

In the above-mentioned embodiment, the mode in which the predicted amount is calculated by comparison with the standard amount is shown. However, the value of the ratio to the consumption amount of the same month of the previous year is calculated, and the harmonic mean of the calculated ratio values is calculated. A mode in which the predicted amount is calculated based on the value may be used.

In the case of calculating a highly accurate predicted amount, for example, when the consumption target is gas, the ratio between the consumption amount excluding the usage amount for kitchen applications that does not change much throughout the year and the corresponding standard amount is calculated. The predicted amount may be calculated based on the predicted amount, and in that case, the consumption amount for hot water supply use which is greatly affected by the temperature may be corrected by using the predicted temperature and the value may be used.

In the above embodiment, the step of obtaining the value of the ratio and the step of calculating the harmonic mean are different steps, but these steps are performed at the same time to perform the calculation by one calculation formula. However, there is no problem because the calculation results are substantially the same.

[0036]

As described above in detail, in the calculation method, the calculation device, the computer program, and the recording medium according to the present invention, the consumption amount of the consumption object in a plurality of unit periods, for example, gas, electricity or tap water in the past month. The standard amount corresponding to the statistical value of the result calculated by comparison and the unit period to be predicted by comparing the consumption amount of By predicting based on quantity, for each household,
It is possible to make an appropriate forecast with consideration of past results, and by considering the consumption amount as the consumption rate in the unit period and using the harmonic mean as a statistical value, it is appropriate as a reference for comparison and also the arithmetic mean. Alternatively, since the reference value does not become a value higher than the geometric mean, energy saving can be promoted, and excellent effects can be obtained.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a system using a calculation device of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the processing of the calculation device of the present invention.

[Explanation of symbols]

10 Calculation device 20 recording device NW communication network PG computer program REC recording medium

   ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── ─── Continued front page    (72) Inventor Gen Fujii             4-1-2 Hirano-cho, Chuo-ku, Osaka-shi, Osaka Prefecture               Within Osaka Gas Co., Ltd. (72) Inventor Houji Uchibori             4-1-2 Hirano-cho, Chuo-ku, Osaka-shi, Osaka Prefecture               Within Osaka Gas Co., Ltd. F-term (reference) 5B056 BB62 BB72

Claims (6)

[Claims] 1. A calculation method for calculating a predicted amount of consumption of a unit period consumption target, wherein consumption amounts of a plurality of unit periods are respectively compared with corresponding standard amount of consumption amounts of the corresponding unit period. A calculation method, which calculates a statistical value of the result, and calculates a predicted amount based on the calculated statistical value and the standard amount of the unit period to be predicted. 2. A calculation device for calculating a predicted amount of consumption of a unit period of consumption, a means for accessing a standard amount database for recording a standard amount of consumption of each unit period, and a unit of consumption of a plurality of unit periods. A means for receiving the amount, a means for extracting the standard amount corresponding to each unit period of the received consumption amount from the standard amount database, and a means for calculating the value of the ratio of the received consumption amount to the extracted standard amount. Based on the calculated statistical value and the extracted standard amount, the means for calculating the statistical value of each calculated ratio value, the means for extracting the standard amount corresponding to the unit period to be predicted from the standard amount database, and And a means for calculating the prediction amount. 3. The calculation apparatus according to claim 2, further comprising: a unit that receives the consumption amount of the unit period in which the prediction amount is predicted, and a unit that compares the calculated prediction amount and the received consumption amount. . 4. The calculation device according to claim 2, wherein the statistical value is a harmonic mean value of respective ratio values. 5. A computer program for causing a computer to calculate a predicted value of a consumption amount of a unit period consumption target, a procedure for causing the computer to accept a plurality of unit period consumption amounts, and a computer The procedure for extracting the standard amount corresponding to each unit period from the standard amount database that records the standard amount of consumption amount for each unit period, and the computer for each of the received multiple consumption amounts and the extracted multiple standard amounts. The procedure for calculating the ratio value, the procedure for the computer to calculate the statistical value of each calculated ratio value, and the procedure for the computer to extract the standard amount corresponding to the unit period to be predicted from the standard amount database. And a procedure for causing a computer to calculate a predicted amount based on the calculated statistical value and the extracted standard amount. A computer program to do. 6. A computer-readable recording medium in which a computer program for causing a computer to calculate a predicted value of consumption of a unit period is consumed. The procedure for receiving the amount, the procedure for the computer to extract the standard amount corresponding to each unit period of the received consumption amount from the standard amount database that records the standard amount of consumption amount for each unit period, and the computer for Procedures for calculating the ratio value of each of the received multiple consumption amounts and extracted multiple standard amounts, a procedure for causing the computer to calculate the statistical value of each calculated ratio value, and a prediction for the computer The procedure to extract the standard amount corresponding to the unit period from the standard amount database, and the computer to calculate the statistical value and the extracted standard value. A computer-readable recording medium having recorded therein a computer program including a procedure for calculating a predicted amount based on a quasi-quantity.