CN119067014B - A suspended sand diffusion analysis method for submarine cable pipeline construction period of offshore oil and gas engineering - Google Patents
A suspended sand diffusion analysis method for submarine cable pipeline construction period of offshore oil and gas engineering Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种海洋油气工程海底电缆管道施工期悬沙扩散分析方法，涉及海洋油气工程技术领域，包括以下步骤：收集施工区域的海洋环境数据，并根据施工特点和预测需求，制定观测计划，得到悬沙扩散源强计算代表点，其中海洋环境数据包括历史数据和实时数据，基于收集的海洋环境数据和悬沙扩散源强计算代表点，提取相关特征，并建立悬沙扩散预测模型，计算每个悬沙扩散源强计算代表点。本发明通过悬沙扩散预测模型中设置悬沙扩散源强计算代表点，并基于实际施工进度动态调整参与计算的代表点，确保每个计算点的有效性和代表性，同时采用空间插值技术整合各代表点的最大悬沙扩散影响包络，有效消除人为理解和判断的误差，提高预测结果的准确性。
The present invention discloses a method for analyzing suspended sand diffusion during the construction period of submarine cable pipelines in marine oil and gas engineering, which relates to the technical field of marine oil and gas engineering, and comprises the following steps: collecting marine environmental data in the construction area, and formulating an observation plan according to the construction characteristics and prediction requirements, obtaining representative points for calculating the source strength of suspended sand diffusion, wherein the marine environmental data includes historical data and real-time data, extracting relevant features based on the collected marine environmental data and the representative points for calculating the source strength of suspended sand diffusion, and establishing a suspended sand diffusion prediction model, and calculating each representative point for calculating the source strength of suspended sand diffusion. The present invention sets the representative points for calculating the source strength of suspended sand diffusion in the suspended sand diffusion prediction model, and dynamically adjusts the representative points involved in the calculation based on the actual construction progress, thereby ensuring the validity and representativeness of each calculation point, and simultaneously adopts the spatial interpolation technology to integrate the maximum suspended sand diffusion influence envelope of each representative point, effectively eliminating the errors of human understanding and judgment, and improving the accuracy of the prediction results.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ocean oil and gas engineering, in particular to a suspended sand diffusion analysis method in the construction period of a submarine cable pipeline of the ocean oil and gas engineering.
Background
Submarine cable pipelines are one of important components of ocean oil and gas engineering, are responsible for signal transmission, data transmission, power supply and transportation of crude oil, natural gas, water and other substances among platforms, are of great importance for ensuring smooth ocean oil and gas exploitation activities, and any engineering activity which possibly affects the ocean environment needs to be subjected to environmental impact assessment, and during the construction process of the submarine cable pipelines, due to the activities such as excavation, laying and the like, the method has the advantages that the submarine sediment can be disturbed, so that suspended sand diffusion is caused, potential threat is caused to water quality environment and benthos, the suspended sand diffusion can not only affect water quality and increase turbidity of water, but also affect growth and inhabiting environment of marine organisms, adverse effect is caused on a marine ecological system, and therefore, the influence range of the suspended sand diffusion in the construction period is accurately predicted, and the method has important significance for making effective environmental protection measures.
At present, the suspended sand diffusion of a submarine cable pipeline in ocean oil and gas engineering generally adopts a numerical model calculation method, and the common practice is to set suspended sand diffusion calculation representative points one by one at inflection points of the submarine cable pipeline route, calculate the suspended sand diffusion influence range of the calculation representative points within 24 hours after the source strength of the suspended sand diffusion is given, and obtain the suspended sand maximum influence envelope range of the submarine cable pipeline in the construction period by closing connecting lines of the maximum influence envelope ranges of the calculation representative points.
In the prior art, a traditional suspended sand diffusion prediction method generally adopts numerical model calculation, and a calculation representative point is set at an inflection point of submarine cable pipeline routing. However, the overall construction time of the submarine cable pipeline in actual construction may be several months, and the construction progress of each day is different, so that the above numerical prediction method easily causes different understanding of the maximum diffusion influence envelope range of the suspended sand by different calculators, the obtained maximum influence envelope range shape is often different, the obtained maximum influence envelope area numerical value is also different, and further the accuracy of the prediction result is affected, and the suspended sand diffusion is affected by dynamic changes of natural factors such as water flow, tide and the like, such as water flow speed, sediment characteristics and the like, so that the deviation of the prediction result is caused, therefore, the dynamic change influence of the natural factors is reduced, and the accuracy of the prediction result is improved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a suspended sand diffusion analysis method for a submarine cable pipeline in marine oil and gas engineering in the construction period, so as to solve the problems in the background technology.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a suspended sand diffusion analysis method for a submarine cable pipeline in marine oil and gas engineering in a construction period comprises the following steps:
Step 1, collecting marine environment data of a construction area, and making an observation plan according to construction characteristics and prediction requirements to obtain a suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point, wherein the marine environment data comprises historical data and real-time data;
Step 2, calculating representative points based on the collected marine environment data and the suspended sand diffusion source intensity, extracting relevant characteristics, and establishing a suspended sand diffusion prediction model;
Step 3, calculating each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point, and evaluating the maximum suspension sand diffusion influence envelope range of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point;
Step 4, predicting the obtained maximum diffusion influence envelope range of suspended sand in the construction period of the whole submarine cable pipeline to obtain a prediction result, obtaining a water flow velocity index and a sediment index, and analyzing the potential influence of the water flow velocity index and the sediment index on the water quality environment and benthos;
and 5, obtaining an error value of the envelope range affected by the maximum diffusion based on the prediction result, identifying a main source of the error, and performing targeted adjustment.
The technical scheme of the invention is further improved in that the suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point acquisition process comprises the following steps:
Step 101, determining the position, boundary and range of a specific sea area under construction, and determining longitude and latitude coordinates, boundary lines, construction start and stop time, the total length and route trend of the submarine cable pipeline and a suspended sediment source generated in construction activities according to a construction design file of the submarine cable pipeline;
102, monitoring and acquiring marine environment data such as flow velocity, flow direction and the like in real time through a marine observation station, satellite remote sensing and deployment of wave buoy equipment, and acquiring historical water depth and topographic data, historical hydrologic data, historical wave data and historical water quality and substrate data of a construction area through a database, wherein the historical water depth and topographic data comprise a historical water depth map and a topographic map, the historical hydrologic data comprise historical tide and ocean current data, the historical wave data comprise historical wave statistical data, and the historical water quality and substrate data comprise historical water quality monitoring data and substrate investigation reports;
Step 103, setting a suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point on the route of the submarine cable pipeline every 10m according to construction characteristics, prediction requirements and the length of the submarine cable pipeline, wherein the point positions cover areas with different water depths, flow directions and flow speeds so as to comprehensively reflect the suspension sand diffusion condition, and selecting a key period during construction to observe, such as a construction peak period and a tidal change significant period;
Step 104, a data record table is established to record the time, place and environmental conditions of each observation, such as wind speed, wind direction, water flow speed and the like, and the observation results, such as suspended sand concentration, water flow speed and the like.
The technical scheme of the invention is further improved in that the construction process of the suspended sand diffusion prediction model is as follows:
step 201, cleaning and preprocessing the collected real-time data and historical data, extracting characteristics related to the calculated representative points of the suspended sand diffusion source intensity, and obtaining water flow speed characteristics, water flow direction characteristics, wave characteristics, water depth characteristics and topography characteristics;
step 202, integrating water flow speed characteristics, water flow direction characteristics, wave characteristics, water depth characteristics and topography characteristics to form a unified data set, and establishing a suspended sand diffusion prediction model;
Step 203, dividing the integrated data set into a training set, a verification set and a test set, training the suspended sand diffusion prediction model by using the training set data, verifying the trained suspended sand diffusion prediction model by using the data of the verification set and the test set, and evaluating the performance of the suspended sand diffusion prediction model;
And 204, reflecting the main influence of the construction activity on the suspension sand diffusion by using a trained suspension sand diffusion prediction model, and analyzing the suspension sand diffusion source intensity of each representative point.
The technical scheme of the invention is further improved in that the process for acquiring the envelope range of the maximum suspension sand diffusion influence is as follows:
Step 301, setting the running time of a suspended sand diffusion prediction model as the construction start-stop time of a submarine cable pipeline, and configuring according to a progress plan of a construction design;
Step 302, calculating the suspension sand diffusion condition of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point by using a trained suspension sand diffusion prediction model, and obtaining a calculation result;
Step 303, extracting a suspension sand diffusion influence envelope of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point from the calculation result, wherein the suspension sand diffusion influence envelope comprises a diffusion distance and a diffusion area, which are generally an area range containing the maximum suspension sand concentration, and analyzing the maximum suspension sand diffusion influence envelope of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point to determine the maximum influence range, the maximum concentration value and the influence direction;
and 304, drawing an equal-concentration line of the suspended sand concentration based on the calculation result, and analyzing the influence degree of the construction activity on the marine environment according to the calculation result of the strong suspended sand diffusion source.
The technical scheme of the invention is further improved in that the water flow velocity index and sediment index acquisition process comprises the following steps:
step 401, according to the maximum suspension sand diffusion influence envelope of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point calculated previously, integrating discrete suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point results into a continuous suspension sand diffusion influence envelope range diagram through spatial interpolation, such as kriging interpolation, inverse distance weight interpolation and the like;
Step 402, analyzing the water flow velocity characteristics during construction and before and after construction and the water depth characteristics and the topography characteristics of a construction area by using a suspended sand diffusion prediction model to obtain a water flow velocity index and a sediment index, analyzing the influence of different water flow velocities on suspended sand diffusion, wherein the high-speed water flow possibly accelerates the suspended sand diffusion, the low-speed water flow possibly enables the suspended sand to be deposited faster, the influence of high concentration suspended sand is larger, the direct influence of the suspended sand diffusion on a sediment cover layer and benthonic habitat is evaluated, the living environment of benthonic organisms is changed by the cover of the suspended sand, and the behaviors such as breathing, feeding and the like are influenced;
Step 403, evaluating the influence of the suspended sand diffusion on the water quality environment, such as turbidity increase, dissolved oxygen change and the like, by combining the suspended sand diffusion influence envelope range, the water flow velocity index and the sediment index, and analyzing the potential influence of the suspended sand diffusion on the benthonic population structure, diversity and ecological function to obtain a risk evaluation coefficient;
and step 404, dividing risk grades of different areas according to the risk assessment coefficients, matching corresponding risk assessment thresholds, providing basis for making environmental protection measures, and making corresponding environmental protection measures, such as adjusting construction time, reducing construction strength, setting protection facilities and the like, so as to reduce the influence of submarine cable pipeline construction on water quality environment and benthonic organisms.
The technical scheme of the invention is further improved in that the calculation formula of the water flow velocity index is as follows:
;
Wherein, Is the flow rate index of the water flow, v is the current flow rate of the water flow,As a reference flow rate,For the reference flow rate,In order to observe the maximum flow rate,Is the average flow rate, wherein the flow rate is expressed as;
The calculation formula of the sediment index is as follows:
;
Wherein, In order to provide a sediment index, the following is preferred,For the concentration of a certain contaminant in the deposit,For the standard concentration limit of the contaminant,For the maximum particle size in the deposit,S is the coverage area of the sediment, A is the total area of the investigation region, wherein the concentration unit isThe particle size is in mm and the area is in mm。
The technical scheme of the invention is further improved in that the calculation formula of the risk assessment coefficient is as follows:
;
wherein R is a risk assessment coefficient, Is an index of the flow rate of the water flow,To have a threshold value for the flow rate index of the water stream that has a significant impact on benthic ecology,Is the standard value of the flow velocity index of the water flow,In order to provide a sediment index, the following is preferred,For a threshold value of the sediment index ecologically produced for benthic organisms,As a standard value for the deposit index,As a measure of uncertainty in the flow rate index of the water flow,As a measure of uncertainty in the deposit index,For the measurement of the uncertainty of zoology characteristics, such as population structure and diversity,Is the distance between benthonic organisms and the suspended sand diffusion source,A critical distance for suspended sand to spread out over benthic organisms.
The technical scheme of the invention is further improved in that a plurality of risk levels correspond to a plurality of risk assessment thresholds, wherein the risk assessment thresholds comprise an upper limit threshold and a lower limit threshold;
the plurality of risk levels and the plurality of risk assessment thresholds satisfy the following relationship:
Low risk level: ;
risk grade of stroke: ;
high risk rating: ;
wherein R is a risk assessment coefficient, An upper threshold value corresponding to a low risk level and a lower threshold value corresponding to a medium risk level,The upper threshold value corresponding to the risk level and the lower threshold value corresponding to the high risk level are set.
The technical scheme of the invention is further improved in that the acquisition flow of the error value is as follows:
step 501, inputting the characteristic data of the water flow velocity characteristic, the water flow direction characteristic, the wave characteristic, the water depth characteristic and the topography characteristic in the preprocessed historical data into a suspended sand diffusion prediction model, respectively calculating a water flow velocity index and a sediment index, and evaluating the accuracy and the integrity of the historical data;
step 502, comparing the predicted maximum diffusion influence envelope range with the water flow velocity index and the sediment index based on the preprocessed historical data to obtain an error value, and obtaining an error analysis table;
In step 503, the suspended sand diffusion prediction model is adjusted according to the error analysis table to cope with the dynamic change of the environmental factors, and measures such as suspending construction can be taken to reduce the influence on the environment for extreme weather or sea condition.
The technical scheme of the invention is further improved in that the calculation formula of the error value is as follows:
;
Wherein, As a value of the error it is,To predict the maximum diffusion impact envelope area,For the maximum diffusion actually observed to affect the envelope area,For the predicted water flow rate index,The actual observed flow rate index of the water flow,In order to predict the deposit index,For the actual deposit index to be observed,As a standard value for the deposit index,For predicting areaIs set in the standard deviation of (2),For observing areaStandard deviation of (2); Along with And (3) withThe increase of the difference between the two areas directly reflects the mismatch degree between the predicted area and the actual observed area,And also subject to the flow rate index of the water flowAnd a sediment indexThe effect of differences between predicted and observed values, amplified by squaring, and further increased when both deviate from their standard values, where the formulaThe term takes into account the relative magnitudes of the predicted and observed area uncertainties, and when the predicted uncertainty is much greater than the observed uncertainty, the value of the term increases, further increasing the error.
By adopting the technical scheme, compared with the prior art, the invention has the following technical progress:
The invention provides a suspended sand diffusion analysis method for a submarine cable pipeline in marine oil and gas engineering in the construction period, which is characterized in that a suspended sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point is accurately arranged in a suspended sand diffusion prediction model, and the representative points participating in calculation are dynamically adjusted based on the actual construction progress, so that the effectiveness and representativeness of each calculation point are ensured, meanwhile, the maximum suspended sand diffusion influence envelope of each representative point is integrated by adopting a spatial interpolation technology, the errors of artificial understanding and judgment are effectively eliminated, and the accuracy of a prediction result is greatly improved.
According to the suspended sand diffusion analysis method for the ocean oil and gas engineering submarine cable pipeline in the construction period, the high-precision numerical model and the real-time environment monitoring system are integrated, so that the fine simulation of the suspended sand diffusion process is realized, the numerical model not only considers the complex interaction of natural factors such as water flow and tide, but also introduces key parameters such as sediment characteristics, submarine topography changes and the like, so that a simulation result is more close to reality, meanwhile, the system can dynamically adjust model parameters according to the data such as the water flow speed and the direction monitored in real time, the prediction accuracy can be ensured in the complex and changeable ocean environment, the influence of the dynamic change of the natural factors on the prediction result is effectively reduced, and the prediction timeliness and reliability are improved.
The invention provides a suspended sand diffusion analysis method for a submarine cable pipeline in marine oil and gas engineering, which can monitor the dynamic change of suspended sand diffusion in real time through a built-in risk early warning mechanism and timely send out early warning signals when potential risks are found, and meanwhile, the system also provides an emergency response plan library which is automatically matched with corresponding emergency measures and treatment flows according to the early warning signals, so that the safety and emergency response speed in the construction period are improved, and the environmental and ecological risks caused by suspended sand diffusion are reduced.
The invention provides a method for analyzing suspended sand diffusion in the construction period of a submarine cable pipeline of an ocean oil and gas project, which is characterized in that the method is provided with dense and equidistant suspended sand diffusion source strong calculation representative points, one representative point is arranged every 10 meters, so that errors caused by sparse or uneven selection of the representative points in the prediction process are reduced, in addition, calculation of the representative points is started and stopped one by one according to the actual construction progress, the synchronism of the prediction time and the construction activity is ensured, the influence of time deviation on a prediction result is further reduced, the prediction error of the envelope range of the suspended sand diffusion influence is obviously reduced, and a more accurate environment influence evaluation basis is provided.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is apparent that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments described in the present application, and other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings for a person having ordinary skill in the art.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of the acquisition of the flow rate index and the sediment index of the water flow according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of the error value acquisition of the present invention.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more apparent, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Embodiment 1, as shown in fig. 1-3, the invention provides a suspended sand diffusion analysis method in the construction period of a submarine cable pipeline of a marine oil and gas project, which comprises the following steps:
Step 1, collecting marine environment data of a construction area, and making an observation plan according to construction characteristics and prediction requirements to obtain a suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point, wherein the marine environment data comprises historical data and real-time data; the suspension sand diffuse source intensity calculation representative point acquisition process is that the specific sea area position, boundary and range of construction are definitely determined, longitude and latitude coordinates, boundary lines, construction start and stop time, total length and route trend of the submarine cable pipeline, suspended sediment sources generated in construction activities and the like of the construction sea area are determined according to the construction design file of the submarine cable pipeline, marine environment data such as flow velocity, flow direction and the like are monitored and acquired in real time through a marine observation station, satellite remote sensing and deployment of wave buoy equipment, historical water depth and topography data, historical hydrological data, historical wave data and historical water quality and substrate data of the construction area are acquired through a database, wherein the historical water depth and topography data comprise a historical water depth map and a topographic map, the historical hydrologic data comprises historical tide and ocean current data, the historical wave data comprises historical wave statistics data, the historical water quality and substrate data comprises historical water quality monitoring data and substrate investigation reports, according to construction characteristics and prediction requirements and the length of a submarine cable pipeline, a suspended sand diffusion source strength calculation representative point is arranged on the route of the submarine cable pipeline at intervals of 10m, the point location is covered with areas with different water depths, flow directions and flow speeds so as to comprehensively reflect the suspended sand diffusion condition, key time periods during construction are selected for observation, such as construction peak time, tidal change significant time periods and the like, a data record table is established, and time, place, environmental conditions, such as wind speed, wind direction, water flow speed and the like and observation results of each observation are recorded, such as suspended sand concentration, water flow speed, etc.;
The construction process of the suspended sand diffusion prediction model comprises the steps of cleaning and preprocessing collected real-time data and historical data, extracting characteristics related to the suspended sand diffusion source strong calculation representative points, acquiring water flow speed characteristics, water flow direction characteristics, wave characteristics, water depth characteristics and topography characteristics, integrating the water flow speed characteristics, the water flow direction characteristics, the wave characteristics, the water depth characteristics and the topography characteristics to form a unified data set, establishing a suspended sand diffusion prediction model, dividing the integrated data set into a training set, a verification set and a test set, training the suspended sand diffusion prediction model by using the training set data, verifying the trained suspended sand diffusion prediction model by using the data of the verification set and the test set, evaluating the performance of the suspended sand diffusion prediction model, reflecting the main influence of construction activities on suspended sand diffusion by using the suspended sand diffusion prediction model, and analyzing the sand diffusion source strong of each representative point;
The method comprises the steps of calculating a suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point of each suspension sand, evaluating the maximum suspension sand diffusion influence envelope range of the suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point of each suspension sand, wherein the maximum suspension sand diffusion influence envelope range is obtained by setting the running time of a suspension sand diffusion prediction model as the construction start-stop time of a submarine cable pipeline, configuring according to a progress plan of a construction design, calculating the suspension sand diffusion condition of the suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity by using the trained suspension sand diffusion prediction model, obtaining a calculation result, extracting the suspension sand diffusion influence envelope of the suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity from the calculation result, including a diffusion distance and a diffusion area, analyzing the maximum suspension sand diffusion influence envelope of the suspension sand concentration of the calculation representative point of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity, determining the maximum influence range, the maximum concentration value and the influence direction, drawing an equal concentration line of the suspension sand concentration based on the calculation result, and analyzing the influence degree of construction activities on the marine environment according to the calculation result of the suspension sand diffusion source intensity;
Further, the running time of the suspended sand diffusion prediction model is set to be the construction start-stop time of the submarine cable pipeline, the construction is carried out according to a progress plan of the construction design, and each suspended sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point is activated in sequence according to the construction progress to calculate. The time of each representative calculation point participating in calculation corresponds to the construction time of an actual 10m long cable pipeline, once the construction of a certain section of 10m cable pipeline is completed, the corresponding representative calculation point of the section exits from calculation, the next representative calculation point starts to participate in calculation, and the calculation is circulated until the whole cable pipeline is completed, and according to the calculation result of strong suspended sand diffusion sources, the influence degree of construction activities on the marine environment is analyzed, wherein the influence degree comprises the condition that the suspended sand concentration exceeds standard, the diffusion range and the like;
Step 4, predicting the obtained maximum diffusion influence envelope range of suspended sand in the construction period of the whole submarine cable pipeline to obtain a prediction result, obtaining a water flow velocity index and a sediment index, and analyzing the potential influence of the water flow velocity index and the sediment index on the water quality environment and benthos; the water flow velocity index and sediment index obtaining process comprises the steps of integrating discrete suspended sand diffusion source strong calculation representative point results into a continuous suspended sand diffusion influence envelope map through spatial interpolation such as kriging interpolation, inverse distance weight interpolation and the like according to the maximum suspended sand diffusion influence envelope of each calculated suspended sand diffusion source strong calculation representative point, analyzing water flow velocity characteristics before and after construction and water depth characteristics and topography characteristics of a construction area by using a suspended sand diffusion prediction model to obtain a water flow velocity index and sediment index, analyzing influence of different water flow velocities on suspended sand diffusion, wherein high-speed water flow can accelerate the suspended sand diffusion, enlarging an influence range, and low-speed water flow can enable suspended sand deposition to be faster, reduce the diffusion range, evaluate direct influence of suspended sand diffusion on sediment cover layers, benthos habitat, change the living environment of benthos, influence on respiration, feeding behavior and the like of the benthos, evaluate the influence envelope, the influence of the water flow velocity index and the sediment index on the environment, evaluate the influence of suspended sand diffusion on water quality, such as increase of oxygen dissolution, increase of suspended sand diffusion, increase of a risk factor, change of a benthos, establishment of a risk factor, establishment of a corresponding risk factor, establishment of a risk factor, corresponding risk factor assessment, ecological factor assessment, and the corresponding risk factor, and the risk factor establishment of a risk factor, and the corresponding risk assessment and the risk factor, such as adjusting construction time, reducing construction strength, setting protection facilities and the like, so as to reduce the influence of submarine cable pipeline construction on water quality environment and benthos;
And 5, obtaining an error value of the maximum diffusion influence envelope range based on a prediction result, identifying a main source of the error, and performing targeted adjustment, wherein the error value obtaining process comprises the steps of inputting the characteristic data of the water flow velocity characteristic, the water flow direction characteristic, the wave characteristic, the water depth characteristic and the topography characteristic of the preprocessed historical data into a suspended sand diffusion prediction model, respectively calculating the water flow velocity index and the sediment index, evaluating the accuracy and the integrity of the historical data, comparing the predicted maximum diffusion influence envelope range with the water flow velocity index and the sediment index based on the preprocessed historical data to obtain an error value, obtaining an error analysis table, adjusting the suspended sand diffusion prediction model according to the error analysis table to cope with the dynamic change of environmental factors, and taking measures such as suspending construction to reduce the influence on the environment for extreme weather or sea condition.
In embodiment 2, as shown in fig. 1-3, on the basis of embodiment 1, the invention provides a technical scheme that a preferable calculation formula of the water flow velocity index is:
;
Wherein, Is the flow rate index of the water flow, v is the current flow rate of the water flow,As a reference flow rate,For the reference flow rate,In order to observe the maximum flow rate,Is the average flow rate, wherein the flow rate is expressed as;
The deposit index is calculated as:
;
Wherein, In order to provide a sediment index, the following is preferred,For the concentration of a certain contaminant in the deposit,For the standard concentration limit of the contaminant,For the maximum particle size in the deposit,S is the coverage area of the sediment, A is the total area of the investigation region, wherein the concentration unit isThe particle size is in mm and the area is in mm;
The calculation formula of the risk assessment coefficient is as follows:
;
wherein R is a risk assessment coefficient, Is an index of the flow rate of the water flow,For a threshold value of the flow rate index of the water stream ecologically produced for benthic organisms,Is the standard value of the flow velocity index of the water flow,In order to provide a sediment index, the following is preferred,For a threshold value of the sediment index ecologically produced for benthic organisms,As a standard value for the deposit index,As a measure of uncertainty in the flow rate index of the water flow,As a measure of uncertainty in the deposit index,For the measurement of the uncertainty of zoology characteristics, such as population structure and diversity,Is the distance between benthonic organisms and the suspended sand diffusion source,Critical distance for suspended sand to spread on benthos;
The risk levels correspond to a plurality of risk assessment thresholds, wherein the risk assessment thresholds include an upper threshold and a lower threshold;
The plurality of risk levels and the plurality of risk assessment thresholds satisfy the following relationship:
Low risk level: When the comprehensive risk value of the evaluation area is lower than a certain set lower threshold value, the risk of the area is considered to be lower, the influence possibly caused by the area on the environment is smaller, special attention is not required or additional protection measures are not required, under the risk level, the influence of suspended sand diffusion on the water quality environment and benthos is relatively smaller, the monitoring is still required to be kept, the construction activity is ensured to meet the environmental protection requirement, the water quality and benthos monitoring can be carried out regularly, and potential environmental problems can be found and treated in time;
risk grade of stroke: When the comprehensive risk value is between a lower threshold value and a higher threshold value, the region is considered to have medium risk, the influence of the region on the environment needs to be concerned, the frequency and the precision of the suspended sand diffusion prediction can be increased, more advanced prediction models and methods are adopted to improve the accuracy of the prediction result, such as a protective dike, a suspension curtain and the like, so as to block the suspended sand diffusion, and meanwhile, the environment supervision during construction is enhanced, and each environmental protection measure is ensured to be effectively executed;
high risk rating: when the comprehensive risk value is higher than a set higher threshold value, the risk of the area is considered to be higher, the environment is possibly seriously influenced, at the moment, the construction activity is required to be stopped immediately, emergency measures are taken to control the range and degree of the suspended sand diffusion, and further measures are taken, such as starting an emergency plan including but not limited to increasing an environment monitoring site, expanding the monitoring range, strengthening the storage and allocation of environment emergency materials and the like, and simultaneously, cooperating with an environmental protection department and related scientific research institutions to research and formulate effective countermeasures together to reduce the influence of the suspended sand diffusion on the environment;
wherein R is a risk assessment coefficient, An upper threshold value corresponding to a low risk level and a lower threshold value corresponding to a medium risk level,The upper threshold corresponding to the risk level and the lower threshold corresponding to the high risk level are set;
the calculation formula of the error value is:
;
Wherein, As a value of the error it is,To predict the maximum diffusion impact envelope area,For the maximum diffusion actually observed to affect the envelope area,For the predicted water flow rate index,The actual observed flow rate index of the water flow,In order to predict the deposit index,For the actual deposit index to be observed,As a standard value for the deposit index,For predicting areaIs set in the standard deviation of (2),For observing areaStandard deviation of (2); Along with And (3) withThe increase of the difference between the two areas directly reflects the mismatch degree between the predicted area and the actual observed area,And also subject to the flow rate index of the water flowAnd a sediment indexThe effect of differences between predicted and observed values, amplified by squaring, and further increased when both deviate from their standard values, where the formulaThe term takes into account the relative magnitudes of the predicted and observed area uncertainties, and when the predicted uncertainty is much greater than the observed uncertainty, the value of the term increases, further increasing the error.
The foregoing is merely illustrative embodiments of the present application, but the scope of the present application is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can easily think about variations or substitutions within the technical scope of the present application, and the application should be covered. Therefore, the protection scope of the application is subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (8)
1. A suspended sand diffusion analysis method for a submarine cable pipeline in marine oil and gas engineering in a construction period is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
Step 1, collecting marine environment data of a construction area, and making an observation plan according to construction characteristics and prediction requirements to obtain a suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point, wherein the marine environment data comprises historical data and real-time data;
Step 2, calculating representative points based on the collected marine environment data and the suspended sand diffusion source intensity, extracting relevant characteristics, and establishing a suspended sand diffusion prediction model;
Step 3, calculating each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point, and evaluating the maximum suspension sand diffusion influence envelope range of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point;
Step 4, predicting the obtained maximum diffusion influence envelope range of suspended sand in the construction period of the whole submarine cable pipeline to obtain a prediction result, obtaining a water flow velocity index and a sediment index, and analyzing the potential influence of the water flow velocity index and the sediment index on the water quality environment and benthos, wherein the water flow velocity index and the sediment index are obtained by the following steps:
Step 401, calculating the maximum suspension sand diffusion influence envelope of the representative points according to each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculated previously, and integrating discrete suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point results into a continuous suspension sand diffusion influence envelope range diagram through spatial interpolation;
Step 402, analyzing water flow velocity characteristics during construction and before and after construction and water depth characteristics and topography characteristics of a construction area by using a suspended sand diffusion prediction model to obtain a water flow velocity index and a sediment index, and analyzing the influence of different water flow velocities on suspended sand diffusion;
step 403, evaluating the influence of the suspended sand diffusion on the water quality environment by combining the suspended sand diffusion influence envelope range, the water flow velocity index and the sediment index, and analyzing the potential influence of the suspended sand diffusion on the benthonic population structure, the diversity and the ecological function to obtain a risk evaluation coefficient;
step 404, dividing risk levels of different areas according to the risk assessment coefficients, matching corresponding risk assessment thresholds, providing basis for making environmental protection measures, and making corresponding environmental protection measures;
The calculation formula of the water flow velocity index is as follows:
;
Wherein, Is the flow rate index of the water flow, v is the current flow rate of the water flow,As a reference flow rate,For the reference flow rate,In order to observe the maximum flow rate,Is the average flow rate;
the calculation formula of the sediment index is as follows:
;
Wherein, In order to provide a sediment index, the following is preferred,For the concentration of a certain contaminant in the deposit,For the standard concentration limit of the contaminant,For the maximum particle size in the deposit,S is the coverage area of the sediment, and A is the total area of the research area;
and 5, obtaining an error value of the envelope range affected by the maximum diffusion based on the prediction result, identifying a main source of the error, and performing targeted adjustment.
2. The method for analyzing suspended sand diffusion in the construction period of the marine oil and gas engineering submarine cable pipeline according to claim 1, wherein the process for obtaining the representative point of the suspended sand diffusion source intensity calculation is as follows:
Step 101, determining the position, boundary and range of a specific sea area under construction, and determining longitude and latitude coordinates, boundary lines, construction start and stop time, the total length and route trend of the submarine cable pipeline and a suspended sediment source generated in construction activities according to a construction design file of the submarine cable pipeline;
102, monitoring and acquiring marine environment data in real time through a marine observation station, satellite remote sensing and wave buoy deployment equipment, and acquiring historical water depth and topography data, historical hydrologic data, historical wave data and historical water quality and substrate data of a construction area through a database;
step 103, setting a suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point on the route of the submarine cable pipeline at intervals of 10m according to construction characteristics, prediction requirements and the length of the submarine cable pipeline, and selecting a key period during construction for observation;
Step 104, a data record table is established to record the time, place, environmental condition and observation result of each observation.
3. The method for analyzing suspended sand diffusion in the construction period of the marine oil and gas engineering submarine cable pipeline according to claim 2, wherein the construction process of the suspended sand diffusion prediction model is as follows:
step 201, cleaning and preprocessing the collected real-time data and historical data, extracting characteristics related to the calculated representative points of the suspended sand diffusion source intensity, and obtaining water flow speed characteristics, water flow direction characteristics, wave characteristics, water depth characteristics and topography characteristics;
step 202, integrating water flow speed characteristics, water flow direction characteristics, wave characteristics, water depth characteristics and topography characteristics to form a unified data set, and establishing a suspended sand diffusion prediction model;
Step 203, dividing the integrated data set into a training set, a verification set and a test set, training the suspended sand diffusion prediction model by using the training set data, verifying the trained suspended sand diffusion prediction model by using the data of the verification set and the test set, and evaluating the performance of the suspended sand diffusion prediction model;
And 204, reflecting the main influence of the construction activity on the suspension sand diffusion by using a trained suspension sand diffusion prediction model, and analyzing the suspension sand diffusion source intensity of each representative point.
4. The method for analyzing suspended sand diffusion in the construction period of marine oil and gas engineering submarine cable pipeline according to claim 3, wherein the process for obtaining the envelope range of the maximum suspended sand diffusion influence is as follows:
Step 301, setting the running time of a suspended sand diffusion prediction model as the construction start-stop time of a submarine cable pipeline, and configuring according to a progress plan of a construction design;
Step 302, calculating the suspension sand diffusion condition of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point by using a trained suspension sand diffusion prediction model, and obtaining a calculation result;
Step 303, extracting the suspension sand diffusion influence envelope of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point from the calculation result, wherein the suspension sand diffusion influence envelope comprises a diffusion distance and a diffusion area, analyzing the maximum suspension sand diffusion influence envelope of each suspension sand diffusion source intensity calculation representative point, and determining the maximum influence range, the maximum concentration value and the influence direction;
and 304, drawing an equal-concentration line of the suspended sand concentration based on the calculation result, and analyzing the influence degree of the construction activity on the marine environment according to the calculation result of the strong suspended sand diffusion source.
5. The method for analyzing suspended sand diffusion in the construction period of marine oil and gas engineering submarine cable pipeline according to claim 4, wherein the risk assessment coefficient is calculated according to the formula:
;
wherein R is a risk assessment coefficient, Is an index of the flow rate of the water flow,For a threshold value of the flow rate index of the water stream ecologically produced for benthic organisms,Is the standard value of the flow velocity index of the water flow,In order to provide a sediment index, the following is preferred,For a threshold value of the sediment index ecologically produced for benthic organisms,As a standard value for the deposit index,As a measure of uncertainty in the flow rate index of the water flow,As a measure of uncertainty in the deposit index,Is the ecological characteristics of benthos,Is the distance between benthonic organisms and the suspended sand diffusion source,A critical distance for suspended sand to spread out over benthic organisms.
6. The method for analyzing suspended sand spread in the construction period of a submarine cable pipeline for marine oil and gas engineering according to claim 5, wherein a plurality of risk levels correspond to a plurality of risk assessment thresholds, and the risk assessment thresholds comprise an upper limit threshold and a lower limit threshold;
the plurality of risk levels and the plurality of risk assessment thresholds satisfy the following relationship:
Low risk level: ;
risk grade of stroke: ;
high risk rating: ;
Wherein, R is a risk assessment coefficient, T1 is the upper threshold corresponding to the low risk level and the lower threshold corresponding to the medium risk level, and T2 is the upper threshold corresponding to the medium risk level and the lower threshold corresponding to the high risk level.
7. The method for analyzing suspended sand diffusion in the construction period of the marine oil and gas engineering submarine cable pipeline according to claim 6, wherein the error value obtaining process is as follows:
Step 501, inputting the characteristic data of water flow velocity characteristics, water flow direction characteristics, wave characteristics, water depth characteristics and topography characteristics in the preprocessed historical data into a suspended sand diffusion prediction model, respectively calculating a water flow velocity index and a sediment index, and evaluating the accuracy and the integrity of the historical data;
step 502, comparing the predicted maximum diffusion influence envelope range with the water flow velocity index and the sediment index based on the preprocessed historical data to obtain an error value, and obtaining an error analysis table;
and step 503, adjusting the suspended sand diffusion prediction model according to the error analysis table to cope with the dynamic change of the environmental factors.
8. The method for analyzing suspended sand diffusion in the construction period of marine oil and gas engineering submarine cable pipeline according to claim 7, wherein the calculation formula of the error value is as follows:
;
Wherein, As a value of the error it is,To predict the maximum diffusion impact envelope area,For the maximum diffusion actually observed to affect the envelope area,For the predicted water flow rate index,The actual observed flow rate index of the water flow,In order to predict the deposit index,For the actual deposit index to be observed,As a standard value for the deposit index,For predicting areaIs set in the standard deviation of (2),For observing areaStandard deviation of (2).
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