CN115830872B - A Method for Judging the Impact of Accidents on the Elasticity of Bicycle Use - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for judging the elastic influence of accident on bicycle use, which comprises the steps of collecting accident sample information, dividing time units according to accident time, dividing reasonable buffer areas according to accident places, collecting bicycle station information in the buffer areas, counting the bicycle use amount of each bicycle station in each time unit, and further counting the bicycle use amount of the buffer areas; according to the influence factors of the buffer area, combining the bicycle usage amount of the buffer area, and constructing a bicycle usage amount elastic model; and (3) applying a bicycle usage elastic model, and judging the influence of the variable quantity on the bicycle usage according to the influence coefficient. The accident occurrence is analyzed by calculating the change of the bicycle usage amount in the buffer area in unit time based on the influence of each influence factor on the bicycle usage elasticity. The method can better guide the traffic management department how to efficiently schedule the bicycles when traffic accidents occur.

Description

A Method for Judging the Impact of Accidents on the Elasticity of Bicycle Use

technical field

The invention relates to the technical fields of traffic safety and public bicycles, in particular to a method for judging the impact of accidents on bicycle use elasticity.

Background technique

In order to alleviate urban traffic congestion and improve the efficiency of urban traffic operation, local governments are actively promoting the use of public bicycles. In order to improve the use of bicycles, the distribution of bicycles is increased or decreased according to the usage of bicycle stations. Related patents, such as CN101038685A urban bicycle sharing management system, just study the unified management of public bicycles. However, for uncertain events, such as the occurrence of traffic accidents, there is little research on the impact on the bicycle usage of surrounding bicycle stations, and in the prior art, it has not considered that the bicycle usage status of the place where the uncertain event occurs is also related to many objective factors. factors. At present, for the occurrence of uncertain events, it is an urgent problem to be able to comprehensively consider relevant factors, judge the impact of bicycle use elasticity, and realize the most reasonable utilization rate of bicycle scheduling.

Contents of the invention

The purpose of the present invention is: to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, to provide a method for judging the impact of accidents on the elasticity of bicycle use, and to accurately evaluate the elasticity of accidents to bicycle use by dividing the impact buffer zone and setting unit time considering the impact factors Influence.

A method for judging the elastic impact of accidents on bicycle use in order to achieve the above purpose, comprising the following steps:

S1. Obtain sample information about the time and place of each accident in the target area;

S2. Based on the time of the accident in the sample information, preset the time period of the accident, and divide the time period of the accident into time units; specifically: based on the time of the accident, perform G hours before and after the accident in units of t minutes Time unit segmentation, as follows:

G _i = {t ₁ ...t _n },

Where i is the number of the accident sample;

S3. According to the location of the accident in the sample information, preset the accident buffer zone, and collect the bicycle station information in the buffer zone; the preset accident buffer zone is specifically: take the accident location as the center of the circle, and respectively take the preset distance Establish the impact buffer zone of the accident for the radius, and collect the bicycle station information in the accident buffer zone accordingly,

n _i = {d ₁ ...d _k }

Among them, n _i is the preset distance buffer of accident i, and d _k is the bicycle station in the buffer, where k>1;

S4, according to the time unit of step S2 and the bicycle station information obtained in step S3, count the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit, and further count the bicycle usage of the buffer zone; the bicycle usage of the statistical buffer zone as follows:

Among them, Q(d _k ) is the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit;

S5. Collect the influencing factors of the buffer zone, and combine the bicycle usage in the buffer zone to build an elastic model of bicycle usage; specifically, collect the influencing factors: road network density K _ti , economic GDP _ti , population P _ti , and number of bus stops D _ti , combined with For the bicycle usage M _ti in the buffer zone, the elastic model of bicycle usage is constructed as follows:

in, is the influencing factor; ε is the model error item, α _i is the regression coefficient of each influencing factor, and β ₀ is the constant item of the model;

Among them, C is the variance and covariance matrix of random parameters, j is the number of random parameters, Refers to other random and uncorrelated variables;

S6. Apply the elastic model of bicycle usage, judge the impact of each influencing factor on bicycle use according to the influence coefficient, apply the elastic model of bicycle usage, and obtain the influence coefficient α, if α is a positive number, then the influencing factors corresponding to this α have an The quantity is a positive influence, otherwise it is a negative influence.

Further, in the aforementioned method for judging the impact of accidents on the elasticity of bicycle use, the buffer zone for accidents is preset with the accident location as the center and the accident buffer zone with a radius of 400 meters.

Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: set different unit times by determining the traffic accident occurrence time, establish an impact buffer zone with a reasonable preset distance as the radius of the accident occurrence place, and calculate the unit time buffer The change of bicycle usage in the district analyzes the impact of accidents on the elasticity of bicycle use. This method can better guide the traffic management department on how to efficiently dispatch bicycles when traffic accidents occur.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is a method flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed ways

In order to better understand the technical content of the present invention, specific embodiments are given together with the attached drawings for description as follows.

Aspects of the invention are described herein with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which a number of illustrative embodiments are shown. Embodiments of the present invention are not limited to those described in the drawings. It should be understood that the present invention can be realized by any one of the various concepts and embodiments described above, as well as the concepts and embodiments described in detail below, because the disclosed concepts and embodiments of the present invention are not limited to any implementation Way. In addition, some aspects of the present disclosure may be used alone or in any suitable combination with other aspects of the present disclosure.

As shown in Figure 1, a method for judging the impact of accidents on the elasticity of bicycle use includes the following steps:

Step S1, obtaining sample information about the time and location of each accident in the target area;

Step S2. Based on the accident occurrence time in the sample information, preset the accident occurrence time period, and divide the accident occurrence time period into time units. The specific time division is: based on the accident occurrence time, the accident occurrence time is calculated in units of t minutes The time unit is divided into G hours before and after, as follows:

G _i = {t ₁ ...t _n },

where i is the number of the accident sample.

Step S3, according to the location of the accident in the sample information, preset the accident buffer zone, and collect the bicycle station information in the buffer zone; the preset accident buffer zone is specifically: take the accident location as the center, and take 400 meters as the center Radius establishes the impact buffer zone of the accident, and correspondingly collects the bicycle station information in the accident buffer zone,

n _i = {d ₁ ...d _k }

Among them, n _i is the preset distance buffer of accident i, and d _k is the bicycle station in the buffer, where k>1.

The bicycle station information is shown in Table 1:

Table 1

Step S4, according to the time unit of step S2 and the bicycle station information obtained in step S3, count the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit, and further count the bicycle usage of the buffer zone. The bicycle usage in the statistical buffer zone is as follows:

Among them, Q(d _k ) is the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit.

Step S5, collect influencing factors: road network density K _ti , economic GDP _ti , population P _ti , number of bus stops D _ti , combined with the bicycle usage M _ti in the buffer zone, construct the elastic model of bicycle usage as follows:

Among them, x _i is the influencing factor;

Among them, C is the variance and covariance matrix of random parameters, j is the number of random parameters, Refers to other random and uncorrelated variables.

The statistical table of influencing factors is shown in Table 2:

Table 2

site AADT P GDP K D. F ₁ AADT _{1 P1 GDP1} K ₁ D ₁ F ₂ AADT _{2 P2 GDP2} K _{2 D2} ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ F _i AADT _i P _{i GDPi Ki} D _i

Step S6, applying the elastic model of bicycle usage, can judge the impact of the influencing factors on the use of bicycles in the unit time after the accident, if the influence coefficient α is positive, it means that the factor has a positive impact on the use of bicycles, otherwise it means that the factor Negative effect on bicycle use. According to the influence of factors, strategies can be targeted to reduce the impact of accidents on the stability of the bicycle system.

Although the present invention has been described above with preferred embodiments, it is not intended to limit the present invention. Those skilled in the art of the present invention may make various changes and modifications without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Therefore, the scope of protection of the present invention should be defined by the claims.

Claims (2)

1. A method for judging the impact of accidents on bicycle use elasticity, characterized in that, comprising the following steps: S1. Obtain sample information about the time and place of each accident in the target area; S2. Based on the time of the accident in the sample information, preset the time period of the accident, and divide the time period of the accident into time units; specifically: based on the time of the accident, perform G hours before and after the accident in units of t minutes Time unit segmentation, as follows: G _i = {t ₁ ...t _n }, Where i is the number of the accident sample; S3. According to the location of the accident in the sample information, preset the accident buffer zone, and collect the bicycle station information in the buffer zone; the preset accident buffer zone is specifically: take the accident location as the center of the circle, and respectively take the preset distance Establish the impact buffer zone of the accident for the radius, and collect the bicycle station information in the accident buffer zone accordingly, n _i = {d ₁ ...d _k } where n _i is the preset distance buffer of accident i, d _k is the bicycle station in the buffer, where k>1; S4, according to the time unit of step S2 and the bicycle station information obtained in step S3, count the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit, and further count the bicycle usage of the buffer zone; the bicycle usage of the statistical buffer zone as follows: Among them, Q(d _k ) is the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit; S5. Collect the influencing factors of the buffer zone, and combine the bicycle usage in the buffer zone to build an elastic model of bicycle usage; specifically, collect the influencing factors: road network density K _ti , economic GDP _ti , population P _ti , and number of bus stops D _ti , combined with For the bicycle usage M _ti in the buffer zone, the elastic model of bicycle usage is constructed as follows: in, is the influencing factor; ε is the model error item, α _i is the regression coefficient of each influencing factor, and β ₀ is the constant item of the model; Among them, C is the variance and covariance matrix of random parameters, j is the number of random parameters, Refers to other random and uncorrelated variables; S6. Apply the elastic model of bicycle usage, judge the impact of each influencing factor on bicycle use according to the influence coefficient, apply the elastic model of bicycle usage, and obtain the influence coefficient α, if α is a positive number, then the influencing factors corresponding to this α have an The quantity is a positive influence, otherwise it is a negative influence. 2. A method for judging the impact of accidents on bicycle use elasticity according to claim 1, characterized in that when the buffer zone for accidents is preset, take the place of the accident as the center of the circle, and set up the buffer zone for accidents with a radius of 400 meters .