CN114782004B - A method for creating a dynamic threshold value of production system status risk - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the field of dynamic risk early warning and safety prevention and control of production systems, and particularly relates to a method for creating a dynamic threshold of the state risk of a production system. The method comprises the following steps of S100, checking an arrangement structure of a production system, judging a time domain response type of production system change, wherein the time domain response type comprises a hysteresis response with a time delay effect, a viscous response with a space delay effect and a hysteresis and viscous combination response with a space-time delay effect, S200, calculating a time lag parameter for determining the state change of the production system, S300, calculating a dynamic threshold value of the state of the production system according to the time lag parameter, S400, calculating a distance between the dynamic threshold value of the state of the production system and a critical value of the risk of the state of the production system, and carrying out standardization processing on the distance, and S500, calculating the dynamic threshold value of the state risk of the production system according to the standardized distance.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of dynamic risk early warning and safety prevention and control of production systems, and particularly relates to a method for creating a dynamic threshold of the state risk of a production system.
Background
The risk threshold is an important parameter for carrying out dynamic risk evaluation and early warning of the production system, and when the risk evaluation result of the production system state is greater than the risk threshold, safety regulation measures are immediately early-warned and implemented. Therefore, the risk threshold research of the production system state is developed, scientific and reasonable regulation and control opportunities for production accident prevention and control can be selected, and the method has important significance for guaranteeing production safety.
The setting of the risk threshold in the current production system safety management research and application is mostly determined according to experience or experimental test results, so that the production safety is guided to a certain extent. However, the setting of the risk threshold of the current state still has three defects that firstly, the critical value of the state risk or the product of the critical value and a certain safety coefficient (less than 1) is basically set as the threshold of the risk, the setting mode ignores the influence of time delay and rear effect of time or space delay on safety regulation, the time of regulation is often caused to be delayed, even if regulation measures are implemented, the risk exceeds the critical value to cause production system faults or production accidents, secondly, the risk threshold is mostly set to be the same value, however, different production system structures and different types of regulation activities are different, the time delay parameters and the change rate parameters of the time or space delay are different, the same risk threshold is difficult to cope with different time delay parameter changes, the problem of time delay effect cannot be solved, thirdly, the risk threshold of the state is often set to be a constant which is only related to the distance, however, the risk of the state is not only influenced by the single factor of the distance, but also limited by the change rate and the direction of the state, the distance of the critical value is different, the activity of different intensity is different, the time delay parameters of the state is different, the change rate of the time delay parameters is different, and the risk parameters are difficult to be influenced, and the change of the risk parameters are different, and the change of the time delay parameters are difficult to change, and the change of the state is difficult to be changed to be different to the change to the direction time direction. Therefore, the existing state risk threshold setting method is difficult to meet the requirement of reasonable regulation and control time selection, and development of a risk dynamic threshold matched with the change parameters and the time lag parameters of the state of the production system is needed, so that theoretical and technical support is provided for dynamic risk early warning and safety prevention and control of the production system.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method for creating a dynamic risk threshold of a production system state, which aims to solve the problems that the existing risk threshold cannot cope with time delay, the problem that the calculation result of the risk threshold is unilateral due to the fact that the existing risk threshold only uses a distance index, and the problem that the risk threshold set as a constant cannot reflect the influence of different time and different intensity regulation activities on the risk.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme that the method for creating the dynamic threshold of the state risk of the production system comprises the following steps of S100, checking the arrangement structure of the production system, judging the time domain response type of the change of the production system, wherein the time domain response type comprises a hysteresis response with a time delay effect, a viscous response with a space delay effect and a hysteresis and viscosity combination response with a space-time delay effect, S200, calculating a time lag parameter for determining the change of the state of the production system, S300, calculating the dynamic threshold of the state of the production system according to the time lag parameter, S400, calculating the distance between the dynamic threshold of the state of the production system and the critical value of the state risk of the production system, and carrying out standardized processing on the distance, and S500, calculating the dynamic threshold of the state risk of the production system according to the standardized processed distance.
In the step S100 of the process of the present invention,
S101, calculating the distance between a station for regulating and controlling the production activity state in the production system and a station where a production system state monitoring sensor is located, and when the distance is greater than 50m, determining that the time domain response type of the production system state change is hysteresis response, wherein the state change of the production system has a time delay effect.
S102, analyzing the relation between the state change of the production system and the spatial structure of the production system, and judging the time domain response type of the state change of the production system to be viscous response when the state change of the production system is affected by the spatial effect of the production system and has a diffusion form, wherein the state change of the production system has a spatial delay effect.
And S103, when the time domain response type of the production system state change has both hysteresis response and viscous response, judging that the time domain response type of the production system state change is hysteresis and viscous combined response.
In step S200, the production system responds with hysteresis parameters including hysteresis time and hysteresis rate, the production system responds with viscous parameters including viscous rise time and viscous rise rate, and the production system responds with a combination of hysteresis and viscous rise rate, the production system responds with hysteresis parameters including hysteresis time, hysteresis rate, viscous rise time and viscous rise rate.
The specific calculation process is as follows;
S201, continuously recording the state value of the production system monitored by the sensor under the state of not changing the production activity I=0, 1, 2,.. When the monitored data satisfies formula (1), the point in time at this time is noted as;
(1)
S202, giving a regulation increment of the production activity state at the time t 0, and continuously recording the state value of the production system monitored by the sensorJ=i, i+1, i+2..when the monitored data satisfies formula (2), the point in time at this time is noted as t j = tc;
(2)
S203, continuously recording the production system state monitored by the sensor, and when the monitoring data meet the formula (3), recording the time point as t j = tn+ at the moment, and stopping monitoring and recording;
(3)
S204, calculating the hysteresis time T c of the state change of the production system by using the monitoring data T 0 and T c;
(4)
Calculating a hysteresis rate of the production system state change by using the monitoring data x (T 0) and x (T c) and the hysteresis time T c ;
(5)
Calculating the viscous increase time T n+ of the state change of the production system by using the monitoring data T n+ and T c;
(6)
by viscous rise time T n+ and hysteresis rate Calculating the viscous increase rate of state change of production system;
(7)
In step S300, the state dynamic thresholdState dynamic threshold divided into production systems with hysteresis effectsState dynamic threshold for production system with viscous effectsState dynamic threshold for a production system with hysteresis + stiction combined effect。
The specific calculation process of step S300 is as follows:
s301 dynamic threshold of state of production system with hysteresis effect The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
(8)
s302 dynamic threshold of state of production system with viscous effect The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
(9)
S303, state dynamic threshold of production system with hysteresis and viscous combination effect The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
(10)
Wherein, As a safety factor, the safety factor of the device,A is the critical value of the risk of the production system state, and when the production system state reaches a, the system is failed or has an accident.
The specific calculation method of the distance normalization processing in step S400 is that,
S401 dynamic threshold of state of production systemThe distance from the critical value a of the risk of the production system state isThe distance between the state of the production system and the critical value thereof in the h group of data obtained by statistics in the long-term operation process of the production system isH=0, 1, 2, r, pairTranslation standard deviation transformation:
(11)
(12)
S402: Performing translation and range transformation;
(13)
Order the The distance between the dynamic threshold value of the standardized production system state and the critical value of the risk is,。
In step S500, a dynamic threshold value of the state risk of the production systemThe method comprises the following steps:
(14)
In the formula, Real-time rate of change for production system status; is the real-time changing direction of the state of the production system.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the structural arrangement of the production system and the change rule of the production system state after the production activity state is regulated, three different time domain response types of the production system state change are defined, and a judgment method of each response type is provided.
The dynamic threshold of the state risk of the production system simultaneously considers the influence of time lag parameters such as lag time, lag speed, viscosity increase time, viscosity increase speed and the like of the state change of the production system after the implementation of the regulation and control measures on the threshold setting, and can effectively solve the problem of lag of the regulation and control measures caused by time lag effect due to the structure and state characteristics of the production system;
According to the method, on the basis of considering the influence of the real-time distance between the state risk and the critical value thereof on the threshold setting, the real-time change rate and the direction of the state are added as parameters for creating a risk threshold function, so that the problem that the risk threshold is calculated to be one-sided due to the fact that only a single index is used is solved, the time-varying threshold can be changed along with the change of different time and different intensity regulation activities, and the problem that the risk threshold set as a constant cannot be changed in a 'manner of being changed in a universal' is solved.
The method organically couples state time-varying parameters such as real-time distance, real-time change rate, real-time direction and the like between the state dynamic threshold value and the critical value of the state dynamic threshold value, and state time-lag parameters such as lag time, lag rate, viscous increase time, viscous increase rate and the like which have influence on the state risk of the production system, thereby establishing a dynamic threshold function of the state risk of the production system, and laying a theoretical and technical foundation for scientifically and reasonably selecting state regulation and control occasions for the production system.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for creating dynamic thresholds for risk of production system states in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is further explained in detail below with reference to the drawings of the specification so that the advantages and features of the present invention can be more easily understood by those skilled in the art, thereby making clear and unambiguous the scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a method for creating a dynamic threshold of state risk of a production system includes firstly determining a time domain response type of state change of the production system according to an arrangement structure of the production system, and then calculating and determining time lag parameters such as delay time, delay rate, viscosity increase time, viscosity increase rate and the like of the state change of the production system by monitoring and recording change data of the state of the production system after the state of production activity is changed. On the basis, calculating a dynamic threshold value of the production system state under the influence of a time lag effect and a distance between the dynamic threshold value and a critical value of the state risk, carrying out standardization processing on the distance, and finally creating a dynamic threshold function of the risk of the production system state, wherein the dynamic threshold function is composed of state regulation time lag parameters, a real-time distance between the dynamic threshold value of the state and the critical value, a real-time change rate, a real-time direction and coupling relations among the parameters.
The specific process is as follows:
S100, checking the arrangement structure of the production system, judging the time domain response type of the production system change, and judging the response type by calculating the distance between a station for regulating and controlling the production activity state in the production system and a station where a production system state monitoring sensor is located and analyzing the relationship between the production system state change and the production system spatial attribute. Wherein the time domain response types include a delayed response with a time delay effect, a viscous response with a spatial delay effect, and a combined delayed and viscous response with a space-time delay effect.
In this embodiment, the specific method for determining the time domain response type of the production system state change is as follows:
calculating the distance between a station for regulating the production activity state in the production system and a station where a production system state monitoring sensor is located, wherein when the distance is greater than 50m, the state change of the production system has a time delay effect, the time domain response type of the state change of the production system is judged to be hysteresis response, and when the distance between the position of a drain pipe water quantity regulating valve and the position of a flowmeter is greater than 50m, for example, the water flow state change has a time delay effect.
And analyzing the relation between the state change of the production system and the spatial structure of the production system, wherein when the state change of the production system is influenced by the spatial effect of the production system and has a diffusion form, the state change of the production system has a spatial delay effect, and judging the time domain response type of the state change of the production system as viscous response, for example, monitoring the concentration of methane in the space, and since the methane belongs to gas, the concentration of methane is the result after the diffusion of the methane in the space, and therefore, the state change of the concentration of methane has the spatial delay effect.
When the time domain response type of the production system state change has both hysteresis response and viscous response, the time domain response type of the production system state change is judged to be hysteresis and viscous combined response. For example, there is a pipeline with a length of more than 50m, one end of the pipeline is provided with a methane release switch, which can regulate the methane injection flow, the other end of the pipeline is provided with a methane concentration sensor, which can monitor the methane concentration, because the regulating input end is at a distance of more than 50m from the concentration monitoring end, the distance effect causes the change of the methane concentration in the pipeline to have a time delay effect, meanwhile, methane is taken as gas, the methane concentration is the result of the diffusion of the methane in the pipeline, and the change of the methane concentration state has a space delay effect, so the change of the methane concentration in the pipeline system has both a hysteresis response and a viscous response.
And S200, calculating time lag parameters for determining the state change of the production system. The time lag parameters comprise the lag time and the lag rate of the lag response and the viscous increase time and the viscous increase rate of the viscous response, and the time data and the real-time state data required by calculating each time lag parameter can be obtained by monitoring and recording the change data of the state of the production system after the state of the production activity is changed.
The specific calculation method of each time lag parameter in the embodiment is as follows:
continuously recording production system state values monitored by sensors without changing production activity states I=0, 1, 2..when the monitored data satisfies the formula (1), the point of time at this time is noted as;
(1)
Giving a regulation increment of the production activity state at the time t 0, continuously recording the production system state value x (t j) monitored by the sensor, wherein j=i, i+1, i+2, & gt, and recording the time point at the moment as t j = tc when the monitored data meet the formula (2);
(2)
Continuously recording the state of the production system monitored by the sensor, and recording the time point as t j = tn+ when the monitored data meets the formula (3), and stopping monitoring and recording;
(3)
The hysteresis time T c of the production system state change is calculated using the monitoring data T 0 and T c as shown in formula (4):
(4)
Calculating a hysteresis rate of the production system state change by using the monitoring data x (T 0) and x (T c) and the hysteresis time T c As shown in formula (5):
(5)
The viscous time T n+ of the production system state change is calculated using the monitoring data T n+ and T c as shown in equation (6):
(6)
by viscous rise time T n+ and hysteresis rate Calculating the viscous increase rate of state change of production systemAs shown in formula (7):
(7)。
And S300, calculating a dynamic threshold of the state of the production system according to the time lag parameter, wherein the dynamic threshold comprises a state dynamic threshold of the production system with hysteresis effect, a state dynamic threshold of the production system with viscous effect and a state dynamic threshold of the production system with hysteresis and viscous combined effect. The state dynamic threshold with hysteresis effect can be calculated by using the hysteresis time and the hysteresis rate, the state dynamic threshold with viscous effect can be calculated by using the viscous increase time and the viscous increase rate, and the state dynamic threshold with hysteresis and viscous combination effect can be calculated by using the hysteresis time, the hysteresis rate, the viscous increase time and the viscous increase rate.
Referring to fig. 1, in this embodiment, the specific calculation method of the dynamic threshold of the state of the production system with various time-lag effects is as follows:
when the time domain response type of the production system state change is a hysteresis response, the state dynamic threshold of the production system with hysteresis effect The calculation formula of (2) is shown as formula (8):
(8)
Wherein, As a safety factor, the safety factor of the device,A is the critical value of the risk of the production system state, and when the production system state reaches a, the system is failed or has an accident.
When the time domain response type of the production system state change is a viscous response, establishing a state dynamic threshold of the production system with viscous effectThe calculation formula of (2) is shown as formula (9):
(9)
When the time domain response type of the production system state change is hysteresis and viscous combination response, establishing a state dynamic threshold of the production system with hysteresis and viscous combination effect The calculation formula of (2) is shown as formula (10):
(10)
S400, calculating the distance between the dynamic threshold value of the state of the production system and the critical value of the risk of the state of the production system, and carrying out standardization processing on the distance. The distance normalization process is to translate the distance, standard deviation transform, and then translate and range transform.
Referring to fig. 1, the specific calculation method for the distance normalization in this embodiment is as follows:
Order the Dynamic threshold for state of production systemThe distance from the critical value a of the risk of the production system state is such thatFor the distance between the state of the production system and its critical value in the h group of data counted during long-term operation of the production system, h=0, 1, 2..r, forTranslation standard deviation transformation is performed as shown in formulas (11) and (12):
(11)
(12)
For a pair of The translation and range transformation is performed as shown in formula (13):
(13)
Order the The distance between the dynamic threshold value of the production system state after the normalization and the critical value of the risk。
S500, calculating a dynamic threshold of the state risk of the production system according to the distance after the standardization processing.
Referring to FIG. 1, a dynamic threshold of risk of production system status in this embodimentAs shown in equation (14).
(14)
In the formula,Real-time rate of change for production system status; is the real-time changing direction of the state of the production system.
The risk dynamic threshold of the production system state is composed of a state regulation time lag parameter, a real-time distance between the state dynamic threshold and a critical value thereof, a real-time change rate, a real-time direction and a coupling relation among all parameters, and is a time-varying value related to the state regulation time lag parameter and the state time-varying parameter, so that the risk dynamic threshold of the production system state not only can effectively solve the problem of delay of regulation measures caused by time delay effect due to the structure and the state characteristics of the production system, but also can change along with the change of regulation activities of different moments and different intensities, the problem that the risk threshold set as a constant cannot 'strain ten thousand' is solved, and theoretical and technical bases can be laid for scientifically and reasonably selecting the state regulation moment of the production system.
Claims (1)
1. A method for creating a dynamic threshold of the state risk of a production system is characterized by comprising the following steps,
S100, checking the arrangement structure of a production system, and judging the time domain response type of the production system change, wherein the time domain response type comprises a hysteresis response with a time delay effect, a viscous response with a space delay effect and a hysteresis and viscous combined response with a space-time delay effect;
In the step S100 of the process of the present invention,
S101, calculating the distance between a station for regulating and controlling the production activity state in a production system and a station where a production system state monitoring sensor is located, and judging that the time domain response type of the production system state change is hysteresis response when the distance is more than 50m, wherein the state change of the production system has a time delay effect;
S102, analyzing the relation between the state change of the production system and the spatial structure of the production system, and judging the time domain response type of the state change of the production system to be viscous response when the state change of the production system is influenced by the spatial effect of the production system and has a diffusion form, wherein the state change of the production system has a spatial delay effect;
s103, when the time domain response type of the state change of the production system has both hysteresis response and viscous response, judging that the time domain response type of the state change of the production system is hysteresis and viscous combined response;
S200, calculating time lag parameters for determining the state change of the production system;
in the step S200 of the process of the present invention,
The production system responds to hysteresis, wherein the time lag parameters comprise hysteresis time and hysteresis speed;
the production system responds to viscous reaction, wherein the time lag parameters comprise viscous increase time and viscous increase rate;
the production system responds to a hysteresis and viscosity combination, wherein the time lag parameters comprise hysteresis time, hysteresis speed, viscosity increase time and viscosity increase speed;
the specific calculation process of step S200 is as follows;
s201, continuously recording the state value of the production system monitored by the sensor under the condition of not changing the state of the production activity I=0, 1,2,.. When the monitored data satisfies formula 1, the time point at this time is noted as;
(1)
S202, giving a regulation increment of the production activity state at the time t0, and continuously recording the state value of the production system monitored by the sensorJ=i, i+1, i+2,) when the monitored data satisfies formula 2, the point in time at this time is noted as tj=tc;
(2)
S203, continuously recording the production system state monitored by the sensor, and when the monitoring data meet the formula 3, recording the time point as t j = tn+ at the moment, and stopping monitoring and recording;
(3)
S204, calculating the hysteresis time T c of the state change of the production system by using the monitoring data T 0 and T c;
(4)
Calculating a hysteresis rate of a production system state change by using monitoring data x (t 0) and x (Tc) and a hysteresis time Tc ;
(5)
Calculating the viscous increase time T n+ of the state change of the production system by using the monitoring data T n+ and T c;
(6)
by viscous rise time Tn+ and hysteresis rate Calculating the viscous increase rate of state change of production system;
(7)
S300, calculating a dynamic threshold value of the state of the production system according to the time lag parameter;
in step S300, dynamic threshold State dynamic threshold divided into production systems with hysteresis effectsState dynamic threshold for production system with viscous effectsState dynamic threshold for a production system with hysteresis + stiction combined effect;
The specific calculation process of step S300 is as follows:
s301 dynamic threshold of state of production system with hysteresis effect The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
(8)
s302 dynamic threshold of state of production system with viscous effect The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
(9)
S303, state dynamic threshold of production system with hysteresis and viscous combination effect The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
(10)
Wherein, As a safety factor, the safety factor of the device,A is a critical value of the risk of the production system state, and when the production system state reaches a, the system is failed or has an accident;
S400, calculating the distance between the dynamic threshold value of the state of the production system and the critical value of the risk of the state of the production system, and carrying out standardization processing on the distance;
the specific calculation method of the distance normalization processing in step S400 is that,
S401 dynamic threshold of state of production systemThe distance from the critical value a of the risk of the production system state isThe distance between the state of the production system and the critical value thereof in the h group of data obtained by statistics in the long-term operation process of the production system isH=0, 1, 2, r, pairTranslation standard deviation transformation:
(11)
(12)
S402: Performing translation and range transformation;
(13)
Order the The distance between the dynamic threshold value of the standardized production system state and the critical value of the risk is,;
S500, calculating a dynamic threshold of the state risk of the production system according to the distance after the standardized processing;
In step S500, a dynamic threshold value of the state risk of the production system The method comprises the following steps:
(14)
In the formula, Real-time rate of change for production system status; is the real-time changing direction of the state of the production system.
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