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CN114254848A - Method and device for predicting installation period of wind generating set - Google Patents

Method and device for predicting installation period of wind generating set Download PDF

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CN114254848A
CN114254848A CN202011017785.5A CN202011017785A CN114254848A CN 114254848 A CN114254848 A CN 114254848A CN 202011017785 A CN202011017785 A CN 202011017785A CN 114254848 A CN114254848 A CN 114254848A
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房本岭
武宁
陈浪
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Jiangsu Goldwind Science and Technology Co Ltd
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Abstract

本公开提供了一种风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法及设备。所述安装工期预测方法包括:获取未来预设时长内的风力发电机组的机位点处的环境数据及下一步需要执行的工序的标识信息,其中,所述环境数据包括影响风力发电机组安装的环境参数的参数值;将获取的环境数据及工序的标识信息输入到训练好的安装工期预测模型,以得到安装工期预测模型预测的未来预设时长内可执行的至少一个工序的标识信息及其执行时间段。

Figure 202011017785

The present disclosure provides a method and equipment for predicting the installation construction period of a wind turbine. The installation duration prediction method includes: obtaining environmental data at the location of the wind turbine generator set within a preset time in the future and identification information of the next step to be performed, wherein the environmental data includes factors affecting the installation of the wind turbine generator set. The parameter value of the environmental parameter; the obtained environmental data and the identification information of the process are input into the trained installation duration prediction model, so as to obtain the identification information of at least one process that can be executed within the preset future duration predicted by the installation duration prediction model and its identification information. execution time period.

Figure 202011017785

Description

风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法及设备Installation period forecasting method and equipment for wind turbines

技术领域technical field

本公开总体说来涉及风电技术领域,更具体地讲,涉及一种风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法及设备。The present disclosure generally relates to the technical field of wind power, and more particularly, to a method and equipment for predicting the installation period of a wind turbine.

背景技术Background technique

海上风电技术起步不久,海上风电项目运输和吊装经验有限,理论积累浅薄,缺乏成熟的理论体系和完善的系统规范。海上风电是典型的先有产业后有理论的行业,在海上风电蓬勃发展的今天,结合实践总结理论,把理论运用于实践并由实践检验是海上风电跨越式发展的必然要求。The offshore wind power technology has just started, the transportation and hoisting experience of offshore wind power projects is limited, the theoretical accumulation is shallow, and there is a lack of mature theoretical system and perfect system specifications. Offshore wind power is a typical industry with an industry followed by theory. Today, with the booming development of offshore wind power, it is an inevitable requirement for the leap-forward development of offshore wind power to summarize the theory in combination with practice, and to apply the theory to practice and to be tested by practice.

海上风力发电机组吊装是海上风电建设项目最重要的环节之一,目前海上风力发电机组吊装虽已形成规范化、标准化的安装流程和工艺要求,但由于海上环境变化无常,海上安装面临的不确定性远大于陆地。吊装技术人员对未来的吊装工期难以进行科学评估,极大地影响了海上风力发电机组吊装工期的有效安排。The hoisting of offshore wind turbines is one of the most important links in offshore wind power construction projects. At present, although the hoisting of offshore wind turbines has formed a standardized and standardized installation process and technological requirements, due to the fickle offshore environment, offshore installation faces uncertainty. much larger than land. It is difficult for hoisting technicians to scientifically evaluate the future hoisting construction period, which greatly affects the effective arrangement of the hoisting construction period of offshore wind turbines.

因此,如何准确预估风力发电机组的安装工期以降低未来安装工期的不确定性就显得尤为重要。Therefore, how to accurately estimate the installation period of wind turbines to reduce the uncertainty of future installation period is particularly important.

发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

本公开的示例性实施例在于提供一种风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法及设备,其能够快速、准确地预估风力发电机组未来的安装工期。Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure provide a method and device for predicting the installation duration of a wind turbine, which can quickly and accurately predict the future installation duration of the wind turbine.

根据本公开的示例性实施例,提供一种风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法,所述安装工期预测方法包括:获取未来预设时长内的风力发电机组的机位点处的环境数据及下一步需要执行的工序的标识信息,其中,所述环境数据包括影响风力发电机组安装的环境参数的参数值;将获取的环境数据及工序的标识信息输入到训练好的安装工期预测模型,以得到安装工期预测模型预测的未来预设时长内可执行的至少一个工序的标识信息及其执行时间段。According to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, a method for predicting the installation duration of a wind turbine is provided, the method for predicting the installation duration includes: acquiring environmental data at the location of the wind turbine within a preset time in the future and the next step The identification information of the process to be executed, wherein the environmental data includes parameter values of environmental parameters affecting the installation of the wind turbine; input the acquired environmental data and the identification information of the process into the trained installation duration prediction model to obtain the installation Identification information of at least one process that can be executed within a preset time period in the future predicted by the duration prediction model and its execution time period.

可选地,所述安装工期预测方法还包括:基于风力发电机组的多个历史时段的机位点处的环境数据及工期排布数据、以及工序执行条件,训练所述安装工期预测模型,其中,每个历史时段的长度为所述预设时长,其中,每个历史时段的工期排布数据包括:该历史时段内所执行的工序的标识信息及其执行时间段,其中,工序执行条件包括用于安装风力发电机组的每个工序执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件。Optionally, the installation duration prediction method further includes: training the installation duration prediction model based on the environmental data and the duration arrangement data at the location points of the wind turbines in multiple historical periods, as well as the process execution conditions, wherein , the length of each historical period is the preset time length, wherein the construction period arrangement data of each historical period includes: the identification information of the process executed in the historical period and the execution time period thereof, wherein the process execution conditions include: Restrictions to which environmental data is required to be carried out for each procedure used to install wind turbines.

可选地,工序执行条件还包括:每个工序的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量。Optionally, the process execution conditions further include: the continuous duration and extent of acceptable environmental data exceeding the limit conditions during the execution of each process, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit conditions.

可选地,当任意一个工序包括多个工步时,该工序执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件包括:该工序的每个工步执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件;每个工序的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量包括:该工序的每个工步的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量。Optionally, when any process includes multiple work steps, the restriction conditions that the environmental data is required to meet when the process is executed include: the restriction conditions that the environmental data is required to meet when each process step of the process is executed; The continuous duration and extent of the acceptable environmental data exceeding the limit conditions during the execution of the process, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit conditions include: the acceptable environment during the execution of each step of the process The continuous duration and extent of data violations, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeded the constraints.

可选地,所述安装工期预测模型为自适应神经模糊系统ANFIS模型,所述安装工期预测模型的学习算法为反向传播算法和最小二乘法相结合的算法。Optionally, the installation duration prediction model is an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system ANFIS model, and the learning algorithm of the installation duration prediction model is a combination of a back-propagation algorithm and a least squares method.

可选地,基于风力发电机组的多个历史时段的机位点处的环境数据及工期排布数据、以及工序执行条件,训练所述安装工期预测模型的步骤包括:将每个历史时段的机位点处的环境数据、在每个历史时段内最先执行的工序的标识信息、以及工序执行条件作为所述安装工期预测模型的输入,并将每个历史时段内所执行的工序的标识信息及其执行时间段作为所述安装工期预测模型的输出,使用反向传播算法和最小二乘法相结合的学习算法,来训练得到所述安装工期预测模型的参数。Optionally, based on the environmental data and construction period arrangement data at the site points of the wind turbines in multiple historical periods, and the process execution conditions, the step of training the installation construction period prediction model includes: The environmental data at the site, the identification information of the process performed first in each historical period, and the process execution conditions are used as the input of the installation duration prediction model, and the identification information of the process executed in each historical period is used. and its execution time period is used as the output of the installation duration prediction model, and a learning algorithm combining the back-propagation algorithm and the least squares method is used to train to obtain the parameters of the installation duration prediction model.

根据本公开的另一示例性实施例,提供一种风力发电机组的安装工期预测设备,所述安装工期预测设备包括:数据获取单元,获取未来预设时长内的风力发电机组的机位点处的环境数据及下一步需要执行的工序的标识信息,其中,所述环境数据包括影响风力发电机组安装的环境参数的参数值;预测单元,将获取的环境数据及工序的标识信息输入到训练好的安装工期预测模型,以得到安装工期预测模型预测的未来预设时长内可执行的至少一个工序的标识信息及其执行时间段。According to another exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, there is provided an installation duration prediction device for a wind turbine, the installation duration prediction device comprising: a data acquisition unit for acquiring the location of the wind turbine within a preset time period in the future The environmental data and the identification information of the process that needs to be executed in the next step, wherein, the environmental data includes the parameter value of the environmental parameters affecting the installation of the wind turbine; the prediction unit inputs the acquired environmental data and the identification information of the process into the training The installation duration prediction model is used to obtain identification information of at least one process that can be executed within a preset future duration predicted by the installation duration prediction model and its execution time period.

可选地,所述安装工期预测设备还包括:训练单元,基于风力发电机组的多个历史时段的机位点处的环境数据及工期排布数据、以及工序执行条件,训练所述安装工期预测模型,其中,每个历史时段的长度为所述预设时长,其中,每个历史时段的工期排布数据包括:该历史时段内所执行的工序的标识信息及其执行时间段,其中,工序执行条件包括用于安装风力发电机组的每个工序执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件。Optionally, the installation duration prediction device further includes: a training unit for training the installation duration prediction based on the environmental data and duration arrangement data at the location points of the wind turbines in multiple historical periods, as well as process execution conditions. model, wherein the length of each historical period is the preset duration, wherein the construction period arrangement data of each historical period includes: the identification information of the process executed in the historical period and the execution time period thereof, wherein the process The execution conditions include the constraints that environmental data is required to meet when each process for installing the wind turbine is executed.

可选地,工序执行条件还包括:每个工序的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量。Optionally, the process execution conditions further include: the continuous duration and extent of acceptable environmental data exceeding the limit conditions during the execution of each process, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit conditions.

可选地,当任意一个工序包括多个工步时,该工序执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件包括:该工序的每个工步执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件;每个工序的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量包括:该工序的每个工步的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量。Optionally, when any process includes multiple work steps, the restriction conditions that the environmental data is required to meet when the process is executed include: the restriction conditions that the environmental data is required to meet when each process step of the process is executed; The continuous duration and extent of the acceptable environmental data exceeding the limit conditions during the execution of the process, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit conditions include: the acceptable environment during the execution of each step of the process The continuous duration and extent of data violations, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeded the constraints.

可选地,所述安装工期预测模型为自适应神经模糊系统ANFIS模型,所述安装工期预测模型的学习算法为反向传播算法和最小二乘法相结合的算法。Optionally, the installation duration prediction model is an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system ANFIS model, and the learning algorithm of the installation duration prediction model is a combination of a back-propagation algorithm and a least squares method.

可选地,训练单元将每个历史时段的机位点处的环境数据、在每个历史时段内最先执行的工序的标识信息、以及工序执行条件作为所述安装工期预测模型的输入,并将每个历史时段内所执行的工序的标识信息及其执行时间段作为所述安装工期预测模型的输出,使用反向传播算法和最小二乘法相结合的学习算法,来训练得到所述安装工期预测模型的参数。Optionally, the training unit uses the environmental data at the machine location in each historical period, the identification information of the process performed first in each historical period, and the process execution condition as the input of the installation duration prediction model, and The identification information of the process performed in each historical period and its execution time period are used as the output of the installation duration prediction model, and a learning algorithm combining a back-propagation algorithm and a least squares method is used to train to obtain the installation duration. Predict the parameters of the model.

根据本公开的另一示例性实施例,提供一种存储有计算机程序的计算机可读存储介质,其特征在于,当所述计算机程序被处理器执行时实现如上所述的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法。According to another exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program is provided, characterized in that, when the computer program is executed by a processor, the installation schedule of the wind turbine as described above is realized method of prediction.

根据本公开的另一示例性实施例,提供一种计算装置,所述计算装置包括:处理器;存储器,存储有计算机程序,当所述计算机程序被处理器执行时,实现如上所述的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法。According to another exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, there is provided a computing device, the computing device comprising: a processor; a memory storing a computer program, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the wind power as described above is implemented Prediction method of generator set installation period.

根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法及设备,能够快速、准确地预估风力发电机组未来的安装工期以降低未来安装工期的不确定性,从而便于合理地安排未来的安装计划以确保能够如期完成安装。According to the method and device for predicting the installation duration of the wind turbines according to the exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure, the future installation duration of the wind turbines can be quickly and accurately estimated to reduce the uncertainty of the future installation duration, thereby facilitating reasonable arrangements for future installations. An installation plan to ensure that the installation can be completed on schedule.

将在接下来的描述中部分阐述本公开总体构思另外的方面和/或优点,还有一部分通过描述将是清楚的,或者可以经过本公开总体构思的实施而得知。Additional aspects and/or advantages of the present disclosure will be set forth in part in the description that follows, and in part will be apparent from the description, or may be learned by practice of the present disclosure.

附图说明Description of drawings

通过下面结合示例性地示出实施例的附图进行的描述,本公开示例性实施例的上述和其它目的和特点将会变得更加清楚,其中:The above and other objects and features of exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure will become more apparent from the following description taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings that exemplarily illustrate the embodiments, wherein:

图1示出根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法的流程图;FIG. 1 shows a flowchart of a method for predicting the installation duration of a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure;

图2示出根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测设备的结构框图。FIG. 2 shows a structural block diagram of an installation schedule prediction device for a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

现将详细参照本公开的实施例,所述实施例的示例在附图中示出,其中,相同的标号始终指的是相同的部件。以下将通过参照附图来说明所述实施例,以便解释本公开。Reference will now be made in detail to the embodiments of the present disclosure, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein like reference numerals refer to like parts throughout. The embodiments are described below in order to explain the present disclosure by referring to the figures.

图1示出根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法的流程图。FIG. 1 shows a flowchart of a method for predicting the installation schedule of a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure.

参照图1,在步骤S10,获取未来预设时长内的风力发电机组的机位点处的环境数据及下一步需要执行的工序的标识信息。Referring to FIG. 1 , in step S10 , the environmental data at the location of the wind power generating set within a preset time period in the future and the identification information of the process to be performed in the next step are acquired.

这里,所述环境数据包括影响风力发电机组安装的环境参数的参数值。例如,影响风力发电机组安装的环境参数可包括当其参数值长时间超过一定阈值时,将无法进行正常安装的环境参数。Here, the environmental data includes parameter values affecting environmental parameters of the wind turbine installation. For example, the environmental parameters affecting the installation of the wind turbine may include environmental parameters that cannot be installed normally when the parameter value exceeds a certain threshold for a long time.

作为示例,环境数据可包括:气象数据。相应地,例如,气象数据可包括以下气象参数之中的至少一项的参数值:风速、浪高、降雨、雷暴。应该理解,气象数据也可包括其他类型的气象参数的参数值,本公开对此不作限制。As an example, environmental data may include: meteorological data. Accordingly, for example, the meteorological data may include parameter values for at least one of the following meteorological parameters: wind speed, wave height, rainfall, thunderstorms. It should be understood that the meteorological data may also include parameter values of other types of meteorological parameters, which are not limited in the present disclosure.

作为示例,当根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法应用于预测海上风力发电机组的吊装工期时,环境数据可包括:气象数据和水文数据。例如,水文数据可包括以下水文参数之中的至少一项的参数值:涌浪、潮汐。应该理解,水文数据也可包括其他类型的水文参数的参数值,本公开对此不作限制。As an example, when the method for predicting the installation duration of a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure is applied to predict the hoisting duration of an offshore wind turbine, the environmental data may include: meteorological data and hydrological data. For example, the hydrological data may include parameter values for at least one of the following hydrological parameters: swell, tide. It should be understood that the hydrological data may also include parameter values of other types of hydrological parameters, which are not limited in the present disclosure.

作为示例,机位点可为风力发电机组的安装位置所在的经纬度坐标。As an example, the stand point may be the latitude and longitude coordinates of the installation location of the wind turbine.

在步骤S20,将获取的环境数据及工序的标识信息输入到训练好的安装工期预测模型,以得到安装工期预测模型预测的未来预设时长内可执行的至少一个工序的标识信息及其执行时间段。In step S20, the acquired environmental data and the identification information of the process are input into the trained installation duration prediction model to obtain the identification information and execution time of at least one process that can be executed in the future preset duration predicted by the installation duration prediction model part.

应该理解,可当一个工序结束后,执行根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法,以预测出在接下来的预设时长内,从所述一个工序的下一个工序(即,下一步需要执行的工序)开始能够执行的后续的至少一个工序及每个工序可被执行的时间段(即,执行时间段)。It should be understood that the method for predicting the installation duration of a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure may be executed after one process is completed, so as to predict the next process ( That is, the next process that needs to be executed) starts to be able to execute at least one subsequent process and a time period (ie, execution time period) during which each process can be executed.

根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法还可包括:基于风力发电机组的多个历史时段的机位点处的环境数据及工期排布数据(以下,也称为历史安装数据)、以及工序执行条件,训练所述安装工期预测模型,其中,每个历史时段的长度为所述预设时长。The method for predicting the installation duration of a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure may further include: based on the environmental data and duration arrangement data (hereinafter, also referred to as historical installations) at the site points of the wind turbine in a plurality of historical periods data), and process execution conditions, to train the installation duration prediction model, wherein the length of each historical period is the preset duration.

这里,每个历史时段的工期排布数据包括:该历史时段内所执行的工序的标识信息及其执行时间段。Here, the construction period arrangement data of each historical period includes: identification information of the process executed in the historical period and its execution time period.

这里,工序执行条件包括用于安装风力发电机组的每个工序执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件。此外,作为示例,工序执行条件还可包括:每个工序的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量。即,还给出了每个工序执行时所能允许偶尔出现的一定时长的在一定程度上超出其对应的限制条件的情况及所允许发生这种情况的次数。Here, the process execution conditions include constraints that environmental data is required to meet when each process for installing the wind turbine is executed. In addition, as an example, the process execution conditions may further include: the continuous duration and extent of acceptable environmental data exceeding the limit conditions during the execution of each process, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit conditions. That is to say, the situation that each process can occasionally exceed its corresponding limit condition for a certain period of time and the number of times that this situation is allowed to occur is also given.

应该理解,不同的工序的执行条件可能相同或不同。It should be understood that the execution conditions of different processes may be the same or different.

作为示例,工序执行条件可以是基于现场实际安装经验数据而得到的。As an example, the process execution conditions may be obtained based on actual installation experience data in the field.

作为示例,当任意一个工序包括多个工步时,该工序执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件可包括:该工序的每个工步执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件;每个工序的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量可包括:该工序的每个工步的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量。As an example, when any process includes multiple work steps, the constraints that the environmental data must meet when the process is executed may include: the constraints that the environmental data must meet when each process step of the process is executed; each process The continuous duration and extent of the acceptable environmental data exceeding the limit conditions during the execution of the process, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit conditions may include: acceptable during the execution of each step of the process Continued duration and extent of environmental data violations, and the number of acceptable time periods in which environmental data exceeded constraints.

实际上,训练好的安装工期预测模型已基于历史安装数据学习到了所有工序的执行顺序、各个工序的工时、工序执行条件;此外,如果任意一个工序包括多个工步时,训练好的安装工期预测模型基于历史安装数据还会学习到:该工序包括的多个工步的执行顺序、各个工步的工时、各个工步的执行条件;此外,如果针对某个工序要求其必须被不间断地连续执行完成时,训练好的安装工期预测模型基于历史安装数据也会学习到该工序必须被连续执行完(例如,某一工序包括多个工步,这多个工步必须被连续执行完,不能在一个工步执行完后过一段时间再执行该工步的下一工步),从而将获取的环境数据及工序的标识信息输入到训练好的安装工期预测模型,能够预测出在接下来的预设时长内,从接下来需要执行的工序开始能够执行的后续的至少一个工序及所述至少一个工序可被执行的时间段。In fact, the trained installation duration prediction model has learned the execution sequence of all processes, the working hours of each process, and the process execution conditions based on historical installation data; in addition, if any process includes multiple steps, the trained installation duration Based on the historical installation data, the prediction model will also learn: the execution sequence of multiple work steps included in the process, the working hours of each work step, and the execution conditions of each work step; When the continuous execution is completed, the trained installation duration prediction model will also learn that the process must be executed continuously based on the historical installation data (for example, if a process includes multiple work steps, these multiple work steps must be executed continuously, It is not possible to execute the next step of the step after a period of time after the execution of a step), so that the obtained environmental data and the identification information of the process are input into the trained installation period prediction model, which can predict the next step in the next step. Within the preset time period of , the subsequent at least one process that can be executed from the process that needs to be executed next and the time period during which the at least one process can be executed.

表1海上风力发电机组的吊装数据Table 1 Hoisting data of offshore wind turbines

Figure BDA0002699663250000061
Figure BDA0002699663250000061

表1示出了海上风力发电机组的吊装工序及工序的执行顺序、各个工序的工时、以及各个工序执行时要求环境数据(这里仅例举了风速和浪高)需符合的限制条件,以“塔筒倒运、顶段塔筒安装”这一工序为例,该工序包括两个工步“塔筒倒运”和“顶段塔筒安装”,该工序的总工时为5.5小时,工步“塔筒倒运”的工时为1小时,工步“顶段塔筒安装”的工时为4.5小时,工步“塔筒倒运”执行时要求风速小于10且浪高小于1.25;工步“顶段塔筒安装”执行时要求风速小于10且对浪高无要求(即,表1中的“—”指示无要求),并且需要工步“塔筒倒运”和工步“顶段塔筒安装”连续执行,即,执行完工步“塔筒倒运”需要立刻执行工步“顶段塔筒安装”,也就是连续的5.5小时中的前1小时满足工步“塔筒倒运”的执行条件,后4.5小时满足工步“顶段塔筒安装”的执行条件时,才可使用这5.5小时来执行“塔筒倒运、顶段塔筒安装”这一工序。Table 1 shows the hoisting process of offshore wind turbines and the execution sequence of the process, the man-hours of each process, and the required environmental data (only wind speed and wave height are exemplified here) when each process is executed. Take the process of reverse transportation of the tower and installation of the tower at the top section as an example. This process includes two steps of “reverse transportation of the tower” and “installation of the tower at the top section”. The total working time of this process is 5.5 hours. The man-hours for the “reverse transport of the tower” is 1 hour, the working time of the step “tower installation at the top section” is 4.5 hours, and the wind speed is required to be less than 10 and the wave height is less than 1.25 when the step “tower reverse transport” is performed; The wind speed is required to be less than 10 and there is no requirement for wave height (that is, the "—" in Table 1 indicates no requirement), and the step "tower reverse transport" and the step "top tower installation" are required to be continuous. Execution, that is, to perform the completion step "Tower Reverse Transportation", the step "Top Section Tower Installation" needs to be performed immediately, that is, the first hour of the continuous 5.5 hours meets the execution conditions of the step "Tower Reverse Transportation", and the last 4.5 hours. Only when the execution conditions of the step "top tower installation" are met, the 5.5 hours can be used to perform the process of "tower reverse transportation and top tower installation".

此外,安装船指进行海上风力发电机组安装作业的船舶,运输船指从码头运送机组部件至机位点的船舶。In addition, the installation ship refers to the ship that performs the installation operation of the offshore wind turbine, and the transport ship refers to the ship that transports the components of the generator set from the wharf to the aircraft site.

应该理解,根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法可适用于各种安装模式下的风力发电机组的安装工期预测,仅需保证安装工期预测模型是基于对应安装模式下的风力发电机组的历史安装数据训练而得到的即可。作为示例,根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法可用于预测某一吊装模式下的海上风力发电机组的吊装工期,相应地,安装工期预测模型是基于在该吊装模式下吊装海上风力发电机组的历史安装数据训练的。例如,海上风力发电机组的吊装模式可具体分为以下项之中的至少一项:水平单叶式吊装、斜插单叶式吊装、分体三叶式吊装、组合体三叶式吊装。It should be understood that the method for predicting the installation duration of a wind turbine according to the exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure can be applied to the prediction of the installation duration of the wind turbine under various installation modes, and it is only necessary to ensure that the installation duration prediction model is based on the corresponding installation mode. It can be obtained by training the historical installation data of wind turbines. As an example, the method for predicting the installation duration of a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure can be used to predict the installation duration of an offshore wind turbine in a certain lifting mode. Accordingly, the installation duration prediction model is based on the installation duration in this lifting mode Training on historical installation data for hoisting offshore wind turbines. For example, the hoisting mode of the offshore wind turbine can be specifically classified into at least one of the following items: horizontal single-blade hoisting, obliquely inserted single-blade hoisting, split three-blade hoisting, and combined three-blade hoisting.

作为示例,在训练安装工期预测模型时,可将每个历史时段的机位点处的环境数据、在每个历史时段内最先执行的工序的标识信息、以及工序执行条件作为所述安装工期预测模型的输入,并将每个历史时段内所执行的工序的标识信息及其执行时间段作为所述安装工期预测模型的输出,来训练安装工期预测模型。As an example, when training the installation duration prediction model, the environmental data at the aircraft site in each historical period, the identification information of the process performed first in each historical period, and the process execution conditions may be used as the installation duration The input of the prediction model is used as the output of the installation duration prediction model to train the installation duration prediction model by using the identification information of the process executed in each historical period and its execution time period as the output of the installation duration prediction model.

应该理解,每个历史时段的机位点处的环境数据及工期排布数据可以是历史实际数据,也可以是历史模拟数据。例如,当使用的是历史模拟数据时,可依据现场实际数据对历史模拟数据进行修正。It should be understood that the environmental data and construction period arrangement data at the aircraft site in each historical period may be historical actual data or historical simulated data. For example, when historical simulation data is used, the historical simulation data can be corrected according to the actual field data.

作为示例,所述安装工期预测模型可为自适应神经模糊系统ANFIS模型,所述安装工期预测模型的学习算法可为反向传播算法和最小二乘法相结合的算法。As an example, the installation duration prediction model may be an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system ANFIS model, and the learning algorithm of the installation duration prediction model may be a combination of a back-propagation algorithm and a least squares method.

作为示例,所述安装工期预测模型可包括以下五层结构:模糊化层(第一层)、乘积层(第二层)、归一化层(第三层)、规则输出层(第四层)、以及输出层(第五层)。As an example, the installation duration prediction model may include the following five-layer structures: a fuzzy layer (the first layer), a product layer (the second layer), a normalization layer (the third layer), and a rule output layer (the fourth layer) ), and the output layer (the fifth layer).

具体说来,模糊化层用于根据模糊隶属函数计算模糊集的隶属度;乘积层用于计算每条规则的激励强度;归一化层用于将每条规则的激励强度归一化;规则输出层用于根据结论参数计算每条规则的输出;输出层用于计算总输出。Specifically, the fuzzy layer is used to calculate the membership degree of the fuzzy set according to the fuzzy membership function; the product layer is used to calculate the excitation intensity of each rule; the normalization layer is used to normalize the excitation intensity of each rule; The output layer is used to calculate the output of each rule according to the conclusion parameters; the output layer is used to calculate the total output.

作为示例,具体的训练过程可如下所示:先将获取的历史安装数据划分为训练数据集和检验数据集;确定第一层各个输入变量的隶属度函数的个数、类型、前提参数初始值,以及第四层结论参数的初始值;然后,基于训练数据集和检验数据集来训练ANFIS模型的各个参数。As an example, the specific training process can be as follows: firstly, the acquired historical installation data is divided into a training data set and a test data set; the number, type, and initial value of the prerequisite parameters of the membership functions of each input variable in the first layer are determined. , and the initial values of the fourth-layer conclusion parameters; then, each parameter of the ANFIS model is trained based on the training data set and the test data set.

作为示例,第一层和第四层的结点是自适应的,第二层和第三层的结点是固定的。As an example, the nodes of the first and fourth layers are adaptive, and the nodes of the second and third layers are fixed.

作为示例,模糊化层中的第i个节点的隶属函数可采用钟型函数,其表达式如下:As an example, the membership function of the ith node in the fuzzification layer can adopt a bell-shaped function, and its expression is as follows:

Figure BDA0002699663250000081
Figure BDA0002699663250000081

其中,μi(x)表示模糊化层中的第i个节点的隶属函数;x表示所述第i个节点的输入;{ai,bi,ci}是隶属函数的前提参数集。Among them, μ i (x) represents the membership function of the ith node in the fuzzification layer; x represents the input of the ith node; {a i , b i , c i } is the prerequisite parameter set of the membership function.

作为示例,第四层规则输出层可用于计算第i条规则对总输出的贡献比例O4,i,其表达式如下:As an example, the fourth rule output layer can be used to calculate the contribution ratio O 4,i of the ith rule to the total output, which is expressed as follows:

Figure BDA0002699663250000082
Figure BDA0002699663250000082

其中,

Figure BDA0002699663250000083
表示第i条规则在第三层得到的归一化激励强度;x,y表示第i个节点的输入;{pi,qi,ri}是所述第i个节点的结论参数。in,
Figure BDA0002699663250000083
represents the normalized excitation intensity obtained by the ith rule in the third layer; x, y represent the input of the ith node; {pi, qi, ri } are the conclusion parameters of the ith node.

图2示出根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测设备的结构框图。FIG. 2 shows a structural block diagram of an installation schedule prediction device for a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure.

如图2所示,根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测设备包括:数据获取单元10和预测单元20。As shown in FIG. 2 , the installation schedule prediction apparatus for a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure includes: a data acquisition unit 10 and a prediction unit 20 .

具体说来,数据获取单元10用于获取未来预设时长内的风力发电机组的机位点处的环境数据及下一步需要执行的工序的标识信息,其中,所述环境数据包括影响风力发电机组安装的环境参数的参数值。Specifically, the data acquisition unit 10 is configured to acquire environmental data at the location of the wind turbine within a preset time period in the future and identification information of the process to be performed in the next step, wherein the environmental data includes factors affecting the wind turbine. The parameter value of the installed environment parameter.

预测单元20用于将获取的环境数据及工序的标识信息输入到训练好的安装工期预测模型,以得到安装工期预测模型预测的未来预设时长内可执行的至少一个工序的标识信息及其执行时间段。The prediction unit 20 is used to input the acquired environmental data and the identification information of the process into the trained installation duration prediction model, so as to obtain the identification information of at least one process that can be executed within the preset future duration predicted by the installation duration prediction model and its execution. period.

作为示例,根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测设备还可包括:训练单元(未示出)。As an example, the installation schedule prediction apparatus for a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure may further include: a training unit (not shown).

训练单元用于基于风力发电机组的多个历史时段的机位点处的环境数据及工期排布数据、以及工序执行条件,训练所述安装工期预测模型,其中,每个历史时段的长度为所述预设时长,其中,每个历史时段的工期排布数据包括:该历史时段内所执行的工序的标识信息及其执行时间段,其中,工序执行条件包括用于安装风力发电机组的每个工序执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件。The training unit is used to train the installation duration prediction model based on the environmental data and construction period arrangement data at the site points of multiple historical periods of the wind turbine, and the process execution conditions, wherein the length of each historical period is The preset duration, wherein the construction period arrangement data of each historical period includes: identification information of the process executed in the historical period and the execution time period thereof, wherein the process execution condition includes each Constraints to which environmental data is required to be met when the process is executed.

作为示例,工序执行条件还可包括:每个工序的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量。As an example, the process execution conditions may further include: the continuous duration and extent of acceptable environmental data exceeding the limit conditions during the execution of each process, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit conditions.

作为示例,当任意一个工序包括多个工步时,该工序执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件可包括:该工序的每个工步执行时要求环境数据需符合的限制条件;每个工序的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量可包括:该工序的每个工步的执行过程中可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的连续时长及超出程度、以及可接受的环境数据超出限制条件的时间段的数量。As an example, when any process includes multiple work steps, the constraints that the environmental data must meet when the process is executed may include: the constraints that the environmental data must meet when each process step of the process is executed; each process The continuous duration and extent of the acceptable environmental data exceeding the limit conditions during the execution of the process, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit conditions may include: acceptable during the execution of each step of the process Continued duration and extent of environmental data violations, and the number of acceptable time periods in which environmental data exceeded constraints.

作为示例,所述安装工期预测模型可为自适应神经模糊系统ANFIS模型,所述安装工期预测模型的学习算法可为反向传播算法和最小二乘法相结合的算法。As an example, the installation duration prediction model may be an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system ANFIS model, and the learning algorithm of the installation duration prediction model may be a combination of a back-propagation algorithm and a least squares method.

作为示例,训练单元可将每个历史时段的机位点处的环境数据、在每个历史时段内最先执行的工序的标识信息、以及工序执行条件作为所述安装工期预测模型的输入,并将每个历史时段内所执行的工序的标识信息及其执行时间段作为所述安装工期预测模型的输出,使用反向传播算法和最小二乘法相结合的学习算法,来训练得到所述安装工期预测模型的参数。As an example, the training unit may use the environmental data at the aircraft site in each historical period, the identification information of the process performed first in each historical period, and the process execution conditions as the input of the installation duration prediction model, and The identification information of the process performed in each historical period and its execution time period are used as the output of the installation duration prediction model, and a learning algorithm combining a back-propagation algorithm and a least squares method is used to train to obtain the installation duration. Predict the parameters of the model.

应该理解,根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测设备所执行的具体处理已经参照图1进行了详细描述,这里将不再赘述相关细节。It should be understood that the specific processing performed by the installation schedule prediction device for the wind turbine according to the exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure has been described in detail with reference to FIG. 1 , and the relevant details will not be repeated here.

应该理解,根据本公开示例性实施例的风力发电机组的安装工期预测设备中的各个单元可被实现硬件组件和/或软件组件。本领域技术人员根据限定的各个单元所执行的处理,可以例如使用现场可编程门阵列(FPGA)或专用集成电路(ASIC)来实现各个单元。It should be understood that each unit in the installation schedule prediction apparatus for a wind turbine according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure may be implemented as hardware components and/or software components. Those skilled in the art can implement each unit by using, for example, a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) according to the defined processing performed by each unit.

本公开的示例性实施例提供一种存储有计算机程序的计算机可读存储介质,当所述计算机程序被处理器执行时实现如上述示例性实施例所述的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法。该计算机可读存储介质是可存储由计算机系统读出的数据的任意数据存储装置。计算机可读存储介质的示例包括:只读存储器、随机存取存储器、只读光盘、磁带、软盘、光数据存储装置和载波(诸如经有线或无线传输路径通过互联网的数据传输)。Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure provide a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, which, when the computer program is executed by a processor, implements the method for predicting the installation schedule of a wind turbine according to the above-mentioned exemplary embodiments. The computer-readable storage medium is any data storage device that can store data read by a computer system. Examples of computer-readable storage media include read-only memory, random-access memory, optical disks, magnetic tapes, floppy disks, optical data storage devices, and carrier waves (such as data transmission over the Internet via wired or wireless transmission paths).

根据本公开的示例性实施例的计算装置包括:处理器(未示出)和存储器(未示出),其中,存储器存储有计算机程序,当所述计算机程序被处理器执行时,实现如上述示例性实施例所述的风力发电机组的安装工期预测方法。A computing device according to an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure includes a processor (not shown) and a memory (not shown), wherein the memory stores a computer program that, when executed by the processor, realizes the above-mentioned The method for predicting the installation schedule of a wind turbine according to the exemplary embodiment.

虽然已表示和描述了本公开的一些示例性实施例,但本领域技术人员应该理解,在不脱离由权利要求及其等同物限定其范围的本公开的原理和精神的情况下,可以对这些实施例进行修改。While a few exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure have been shown and described, those skilled in the art will appreciate that these Examples are modified.

Claims (12)

1. The method for predicting the installation period of the wind generating set is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring environmental data of a machine position of a wind generating set in a preset time length in the future and identification information of a next procedure to be executed, wherein the environmental data comprises parameter values of environmental parameters influencing the installation of the wind generating set;
and inputting the acquired environmental data and the identification information of the working procedures into the trained installation period prediction model to obtain the identification information and the execution time period of at least one working procedure which can be executed within the future preset time length predicted by the installation period prediction model.
2. The method for predicting the installation period according to claim 1, further comprising:
training the installation period prediction model based on environmental data and period arrangement data at machine sites of a plurality of historical periods of the wind generating set and process execution conditions, wherein the length of each historical period is the preset time length,
the construction period arrangement data of each historical period comprises: identification information of the processes performed within the history period and the execution time periods thereof,
the process execution conditions comprise limiting conditions which are required to be met by environmental data when each process for installing the wind generating set is executed.
3. The method for predicting the construction period of an installation according to claim 2, wherein the process execution conditions further include:
the continuous length and extent of exceeding of the limit condition by the acceptable environmental data during the execution of each process, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit condition.
4. The method for predicting an installation period according to claim 3, wherein when any one process step includes a plurality of process steps,
the limiting conditions that the environmental data is required to meet when the process is executed comprise: each step of the process requires a limiting condition that the environmental data need to meet when being executed;
the continuous time length and the exceeding degree of the acceptable environmental data exceeding the limit condition in the execution process of each process and the number of the time period for which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit condition include: the continuous length and extent of the exceeding of the limit condition by the acceptable environmental data and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit condition during the execution of each step of the process.
5. The method of predicting construction period for installation according to claim 2, wherein the model for prediction of construction period for installation is an adaptive neural fuzzy system ANFIS model,
the learning algorithm of the installation period prediction model is an algorithm combining a back propagation algorithm and a least square method.
6. The installation period prediction method according to claim 5, wherein the step of training the installation period prediction model based on environmental data and period arrangement data at the machine site of a plurality of historical periods of the wind turbine generator system, and process execution conditions includes:
and training parameters of the installation period prediction model by using a learning algorithm combining a back propagation algorithm and a least square method, wherein the environment data at the machine position of each historical period, the identification information of the process executed firstly in each historical period and the process execution condition are used as the input of the installation period prediction model, the identification information of the process executed in each historical period and the execution time period thereof are used as the output of the installation period prediction model, and the parameters of the installation period prediction model are obtained.
7. An installation period prediction apparatus of a wind turbine generator system, characterized by comprising:
the data acquisition unit is used for acquiring environmental data of machine positions of the wind generating set in a preset time length in the future and identification information of a next procedure to be executed, wherein the environmental data comprise parameter values of environmental parameters influencing the installation of the wind generating set;
and the prediction unit is used for inputting the acquired environmental data and the identification information of the working procedures into the trained installation period prediction model so as to obtain the identification information of at least one working procedure which can be executed within the future preset time length predicted by the installation period prediction model and the execution time period of the working procedure.
8. The installation period prediction apparatus according to claim 7, characterized in that the installation period prediction apparatus further comprises:
a training unit for training the installation period prediction model based on environmental data and period arrangement data at a plurality of historical periods of the wind turbine generator system, and process execution conditions, wherein the length of each historical period is the preset time length,
the construction period arrangement data of each historical period comprises: identification information of the processes performed within the history period and the execution time periods thereof,
the process execution conditions comprise limiting conditions which are required to be met by environmental data when each process for installing the wind generating set is executed.
9. The installation period prediction apparatus according to claim 8, wherein the process execution condition further includes:
the continuous length and extent of exceeding of the limit condition by the acceptable environmental data during the execution of each process, and the number of time periods during which the acceptable environmental data exceeds the limit condition.
10. The installation period prediction apparatus according to claim 9, characterized in that the training unit trains parameters of the installation period prediction model using a learning algorithm combining a back propagation algorithm and a least square method, with environmental data at a machine site for each history period, identification information of a process executed first in each history period, and process execution conditions as inputs of the installation period prediction model, and identification information of a process executed in each history period and an execution time period thereof as outputs of the installation period prediction model.
11. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements a method for predicting an installation period of a wind park according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
12. A computing device, the computing device comprising:
a processor;
a memory storing a computer program which, when executed by the processor, implements the method of predicting an installation period of a wind park according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
CN202011017785.5A 2020-09-24 2020-09-24 Method and device for predicting installation period of wind generating set Pending CN114254848A (en)

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Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN107111797A (en) * 2014-07-01 2017-08-29 莫乔海事有限公司 Method of producing a composite material

Patent Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN107111797A (en) * 2014-07-01 2017-08-29 莫乔海事有限公司 Method of producing a composite material

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