CN113055230B - Network reconstruction method and system for information physical system - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种面向信息物理系统的网络重构方法和系统,利用PC算法初步构建该网络中各节点的因果关系,并结合MCI算法对PC算法中重构出来的连边进行甄别,从而提升重构网络的真实性与可靠性。
The invention discloses a network reconstruction method and system oriented to an information physical system. The PC algorithm is used to preliminarily construct the causal relationship of each node in the network, and the connection edges reconstructed from the PC algorithm are screened in combination with the MCI algorithm. Improve the authenticity and reliability of the reconstructed network.
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明属于网络分析与重构技术领域,涉及一种面向信息物理系统的网络推断与重构方法。The invention belongs to the technical field of network analysis and reconstruction, and relates to a network inference and reconstruction method oriented to an information physical system.
背景技术Background technique
信息物理系统(cyber physical systems,CPS)是集成计算、通信与控制于一体的下一代智能系统。由于该系统是通过人机交互接口来实现和物理进程的交互,因此人们可以使用网络化空间来进行实时而安全可靠地远程操控系统中的各个物理实体。CPS通常可由三个子系统组成:自主体数据采集与诊断系统——针对物理实体的自身控制,全域信息交互实验系统——针对人机交互接口的开发,以及智能逻辑分析系统——针对物理实体与人机交互接口间数据网络的分析。其中,智能逻辑分析子系统作为实现系统远程控制的关键部分,其整合了CPS系统的全局信息流和逻辑链条以推断因果关系,并能够构建数据网络完整的因果图谱,建立基于大数据统计的多智能体算法模型,从而为智能算法和控制芯片的开发和设计提供科学决策工具。因此,科学合理地实现对CPS系统网络的重构是该系统运作可靠性的重要保障。Cyber physical systems (CPS) are next-generation intelligent systems that integrate computing, communication and control. Since the system realizes the interaction with the physical process through the human-computer interaction interface, people can use the networked space to remotely control various physical entities in the system in real time and safely and reliably. CPS is usually composed of three subsystems: autonomous data acquisition and diagnosis system - for the self-control of physical entities, global information interaction experiment system - for the development of human-computer interaction interfaces, and intelligent logic analysis system - for physical entities and Analysis of data networks between human-computer interaction interfaces. Among them, the intelligent logic analysis subsystem is a key part to realize the remote control of the system. It integrates the global information flow and logic chain of the CPS system to infer the causal relationship, and can build a complete causal graph of the data network, and establish a multi-dimensional system based on big data statistics. The intelligent body algorithm model provides scientific decision-making tools for the development and design of intelligent algorithms and control chips. Therefore, the scientific and rational realization of the reconfiguration of the CPS system network is an important guarantee for the reliability of the system's operation.
针对网络重构问题,国内外研究学者对其做过深入研究,并提出了许多方法。Mantegna提出的相关性方法可根据变量间的变化关系,利用皮尔逊相关系数来构建变量间的生成树结构,从而对变量结构进行划分重组,但该方法只能构建无向图结构,因此并不能对网络节点间的因果性进行推断;Granger为了重构因果网络提出了一种格兰杰因果检验方法,利用“两个事件发生的先后顺序”的统计显著性来进行因果推断,但该方法只能用于线性系统,而无法分析实际系统中普遍存在的非线性关系;Sugihara提出的收敛交叉映射方法很好地解决了非线性系统中的网络重构问题,但对于高维(网络节点数目较多)的重构问题所需的计算量较大,求解效率有待提升。Aiming at the problem of network reconstruction, domestic and foreign researchers have done in-depth research on it, and proposed many methods. The correlation method proposed by Mantegna can use the Pearson correlation coefficient to build a spanning tree structure between variables according to the changing relationship between variables, so as to divide and reorganize the variable structure, but this method can only build an undirected graph structure, so it cannot Infer the causality between network nodes; in order to reconstruct the causal network, Granger proposed a Granger causality test method, which uses the statistical significance of "the sequence of two events" to conduct causal inference, but this method only It can be used in linear systems, but cannot analyze the nonlinear relationship ubiquitous in actual systems; the convergent cross-mapping method proposed by Sugihara can solve the problem of network reconstruction in nonlinear systems, but for high-dimensional (the number of network nodes is relatively small) A large amount of computation is required for reconstruction problems with multiple), and the solution efficiency needs to be improved.
PC算法作为近年新兴的因果网络推断算法,可以有效地解决高维的网络重构问题。其思路为:首先将该网络视为全连通图,而后针对任意一个节点,在迭代过程中通过条件独立性测试来不断剔除不相关(分离)节点的连边,最后在满足终止条件时可以同时构建出该节点完整的因果网络。由于不需要两两节点逐个比对,因而该方法有效地提高了网络重构的计算效率。As an emerging causal network inference algorithm in recent years, PC algorithm can effectively solve the problem of high-dimensional network reconstruction. The idea is: first treat the network as a fully connected graph, then for any node, through the conditional independence test in the iterative process to continuously eliminate the edges of irrelevant (separate) nodes, and finally when the termination condition is satisfied, it can be simultaneously Construct the complete causal network of the node. This method effectively improves the computational efficiency of network reconstruction because there is no need to compare pairs of nodes one by one.
一般来说,网络重构方法(包括PC算法)不可避免地会重构出虚假的,即实际上不存在的连边。瞬态条件独立性(momentary conditional independence,MCI)检验算法可以对重构出的连边进行进一步校验,通过识别由于间接影响或共同驱动因素而产生的虚假连边,对其进行排除,从而进一步提升网络重构的性能与可靠性。In general, network reconstruction methods (including PC algorithms) inevitably reconstruct spurious, that is, connections that do not actually exist. The transient conditional independence (MCI) test algorithm can further verify the reconstructed edges by identifying spurious edges caused by indirect effects or common driving factors, and eliminating them, thereby further Improve the performance and reliability of network reconfiguration.
针对上述方法的特点与局限性,CPS系统的网络重构问题而言亟需一种更加有效的因果推断方法,以真实地还原CPS系统中无人自主体间的相互作用结构。In view of the characteristics and limitations of the above methods, a more effective causal inference method is urgently needed for the network reconstruction of the CPS system, so as to truly restore the interaction structure between the unmanned and autonomous agents in the CPS system.
发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
有鉴于现有技术的上述缺陷,本发明提出一种PCMCI方法,利用PC算法初步构建该网络中各节点的因果关系,并结合MCI算法对PC算法中重构出来的连边进行甄别,从而提升重构网络的真实性与可靠性。In view of the above-mentioned defects of the prior art, the present invention proposes a PCMCI method, which uses the PC algorithm to initially construct the causal relationship of each node in the network, and combines the MCI algorithm to screen the reconstructed edges in the PC algorithm, thereby improving the performance of the network. Reconstruct the authenticity and reliability of the network.
为实现上述目的,本发明在第一方面提供了一种面向信息物理系统的网络重构方法,包括步骤:In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides, in a first aspect, a cyber-physical system-oriented network reconfiguration method, comprising the steps of:
根据收集到的网络中的节点的时序状态信息,构建全连通的时序网络图;According to the collected timing state information of nodes in the network, construct a fully connected timing network diagram;
针对任意一个节点,将与该节点不相关的节点进行剔除;For any node, the nodes that are not related to the node are eliminated;
进行迭代过程,在每次迭代过程中更新检验条件,并根据条件独立性检验算法不断剔除与该节点相独立的其他节点;Carry out an iterative process, update the test conditions in each iteration process, and continuously eliminate other nodes independent of the node according to the conditional independence test algorithm;
在满足终止条件时跳出迭代过程;Jump out of the iterative process when the termination condition is met;
根据瞬态条件独立性检验算法对各连边进行评估,并删除虚假的连边。Each connected edge is evaluated according to a transient conditional independence test algorithm and spurious connections are removed.
进一步地,包括以下具体步骤:Further, the following specific steps are included:
(1)初始化PC算法的参数:设置输入状态时间序列X=(X1,X2,...,XN)、最大因果滞后时间τmax、最大可存在因果关系的父节点数目(最大迭代轮数)Nc,mac、条件独立性检验次数NCI以及终止条件阈值αPC;(1) Initialize the parameters of the PC algorithm: set the input state time series X=(X 1 , X 2 ,..., X N ), the maximum causal lag time τ max , the maximum number of parent nodes that can have a causal relationship (maximum iteration number of rounds) N c,mac , number of conditional independence tests N CI and termination condition threshold α PC ;
(2)任意选取某一节点进行因果关系重构:选取某一节点进行初始化,设置其父节点为所有其他节点,设置其与任意其他节点间的独立检验统计量设置初始迭代轮数Nc=0;(2) Arbitrarily select a node Perform causal reconstruction: pick a node Initialize, set its parent node For all other nodes, set it to be the same as any other node independent test statistic between Set the initial iteration round number N c =0;
(3)进行第Nc轮迭代:从中选取一个在本轮迭代过程中未进行CI检测的节点对在条件下进行CI检验,其中且满足得到假设检验的P值与独立性大小分别记为(p,I);(3) Perform the N- th round of iteration: from Select a node that has not undergone CI detection in this round of iterations right in condition The CI test is carried out under the and satisfy The P value and independence of the hypothesis test are recorded as (p, I) respectively;
(4)若p>αPC,则从中剔除的节点,并根据给进行降序排序;否则返回步骤(3);(4) If p>α PC , then from medium culling node, and according to Give Sort in descending order; otherwise, return to step (3);
(5)若则节点的因果关系重构完成;否则令Nc=Nc+1,并返回执行步骤(3)进行新一轮迭代;(5) If then the node The reconstruction of the causal relationship is completed; otherwise, let N c =N c +1, and return to step (3) for a new round of iteration;
(6)判断是否所有节点的因果关系均已完成重构,若完成则进入步骤(7);否则返回步骤(2);(6) Judging whether the causal relationship of all nodes has been reconstructed, if completed, enter step (7); otherwise, return to step (2);
(7)对重构的因果网络进行MCI检验,剔除虚假连边。(7) MCI test is performed on the reconstructed causal network, and false connections are eliminated.
进一步地,步骤(3)中采用高斯过程回归与距离相关系数来进行独立性检验,其具体过程如下:Further, in step (3), the Gaussian process regression and the distance correlation coefficient are used to carry out the independence test, and the specific process is as follows:
(3a)利用贝叶斯非参数回归模型对分别进行回归分析,并计算其P值,其模型如下式所示:(3a) Using a Bayesian nonparametric regression model to Regression analysis was carried out respectively, and its P value was calculated, and its model was as follows:
(3b)计算在该模型下的残差为:(3b) Calculated under this model The residuals are:
(3c)对于和两者间的独立性可通过与来计算,若I=0则表示两变量是独立的:(3c) For and The independence between the two can be achieved by and To calculate, if I=0, it means that the two variables are independent:
其中的定义分别如下:in are defined as follows:
其中du、dv分别表示向量u、v的维数;where d u and d v represent the dimensions of the vectors u and v, respectively;
(3d)更新 (3d) Update
进一步地,步骤(7)中对任意一个节点的连边检验具体过程如下:Further, in step (7), to any node The specific process of the edge connection test is as follows:
(7a)对任意节点计算 (7a) For any node calculate
(7b)选取任意节点定义为的前pX个节点构成的集合;(7b) Select any node definition for The set consisting of the first p X nodes of ;
(7c)对在条件下进行CI检验,其过程同第三步中所述方法;(7c) Yes in condition The CI test is carried out below, and its process is the same as that described in the third step;
(7d)根据CI检验结果,剔除虚假连边;(7d) According to the CI test result, remove the false connection;
(7f)选取其他节点重复步骤(7b)~(7d),若所有节点均已MCI检验完毕,则获得最终PCMCI重构的因果网络。(7f) Select other nodes and repeat steps (7b) to (7d). If all nodes have completed the MCI check, the final PCMCI-reconstructed causal network is obtained.
本发明在第二方面提供了一种面向信息物理系统的网络重构系统,包括In a second aspect, the present invention provides a cyber-physical system-oriented network reconfiguration system, comprising:
时序网络图构建模块,用于根据收集到的网络中的节点的时序状态信息,构建全连通的时序网络图;The timing network diagram building module is used to construct a fully connected timing network diagram according to the collected timing state information of the nodes in the network;
因果网络重构模块,用于针对任意一个节点,将与该节点不相关的节点进行剔除;进行迭代过程,在每次迭代过程中更新检验条件,并根据条件独立性检验算法不断剔除与该节点相独立的其他节点;在满足终止条件时跳出迭代过程;The causal network reconstruction module is used to eliminate any node that is not related to the node; iterative process is performed, the test conditions are updated in each iteration process, and the node is continuously eliminated according to the conditional independence test algorithm Other nodes that are independent of each other; jump out of the iterative process when the termination condition is met;
因果网络检验模块,用于根据瞬态条件独立性检验算法对各连边进行评估,并删除虚假的连边。The causal network checking module is used to evaluate each connected edge according to the transient conditional independence test algorithm and remove false connected edges.
进一步地,时序网络图构建模块被设置为执行如下步骤:Further, the timing network diagram building block is configured to perform the following steps:
(1)接收初始化PC算法的参数设置:状态时间序列X=(X1,X2,...,XN)、最大因果滞后时间τmax、最大可存在因果关系的父节点数目(最大迭代轮数)Nc,max、条件独立性检验次数NCI以及终止条件阈值αPC;(1) Receive parameter settings for initializing the PC algorithm: state time series X=(X 1 , X 2 ,..., X N ), maximum causal lag time τ max , maximum number of parent nodes that can have causal relationships (maximum iteration number of rounds) N c,max , number of conditional independence tests N CI and termination condition threshold α PC ;
因果网络重构模块被设置为执行如下步骤:The causal network reconstruction module is set up to perform the following steps:
(2)任意选取某一节点进行因果关系重构:选取某一节点进行初始化,设置其父节点为所有其他节点,设置其与任意其他节点间的独立检验统计量设置初始迭代轮数Nc=0;(2) Arbitrarily select a node Perform causal reconstruction: pick a node Initialize, set its parent node For all other nodes, set it to be the same as any other node independent test statistic between Set the initial iteration round number N c =0;
(3)进行第Nc轮迭代:从中选取一个在本轮迭代过程中未进行CI检测的节点对在条件下进行CI检验,其中且满足得到假设检验的P值与独立性大小分别记为(p,I);(3) Perform the N- th round of iteration: from Select a node that has not undergone CI detection in this round of iterations right in condition The CI test is carried out under the and satisfy The P value and independence of the hypothesis test are recorded as (p, I) respectively;
(4)若p>αPC,则从中剔除的节点,并根据给进行降序排序;否则返回步骤(3);(4) If p>α PC , then from medium culling node, and according to Give Sort in descending order; otherwise, return to step (3);
(5)若则节点的因果关系重构完成;否则令Nc=Nc+1,并返回执行步骤(3)进行新一轮迭代;(5) If then the node The reconstruction of the causal relationship is completed; otherwise, let N c =N c +1, and return to step (3) for a new round of iteration;
(6)判断是否所有节点的因果关系均已完成重构,若完成则进入步骤(7);否则返回步骤(2);(6) Judging whether the causal relationship of all nodes has been reconstructed, if completed, enter step (7); otherwise, return to step (2);
因果网络检验模块被设置为执行如下步骤:The causal network inspection module is set up to perform the following steps:
(7)对重构的因果网络进行MCI检验,剔除虚假连边。(7) MCI test is performed on the reconstructed causal network, and false connections are eliminated.
进一步地,因果网络重构模块被设置为在执行步骤(3)时,采用高斯过程回归与距离相关系数来进行独立性检验,其具体过程如下:Further, the causal network reconstruction module is set to use Gaussian process regression and distance correlation coefficient to carry out the independence test when performing step (3), and the specific process is as follows:
(3a)利用贝叶斯非参数回归模型对分别进行回归分析,并计算其P值,其模型如下式所示:(3a) Using a Bayesian nonparametric regression model to Regression analysis was carried out respectively, and its P value was calculated, and its model was as follows:
(3b)计算在该模型下的残差为:(3b) Calculated under this model The residuals are:
(3c)对于和两者间的独立性可通过与来计算,若I=0则表示两变量是独立的:(3c) For and The independence between the two can be achieved by and To calculate, if I=0, it means that the two variables are independent:
其中的定义分别如下:in are defined as follows:
其中du、dv分别表示向量u、v的维数;where d u and d v represent the dimensions of the vectors u and v, respectively;
(3d)更新 (3d) Update
进一步地,因果网络检验模块被设置为在执行步骤(7)时,对任意一个节点的连边检验具体过程如下:Further, the causal network checking module is set to perform step (7), for any node The specific process of the edge connection test is as follows:
(7a)对任意节点计算 (7a) For any node calculate
(7b)选取任意节点定义为的前pX个节点构成的集合;(7b) Select any node definition for The set consisting of the first p X nodes of ;
(7c)对在条件下进行CI检验,其过程同第三步中所述方法;(7c) Yes in condition The CI test is carried out below, and its process is the same as that described in the third step;
(7d)根据CI检验结果,剔除虚假连边;(7d) According to the CI test result, remove the false connection;
(7f)选取其他节点重复步骤(7b)~(7d),若所有节点均已MCI检验完毕,则获得最终PCMCI重构的因果网络。(7f) Select other nodes and repeat steps (7b) to (7d). If all nodes have completed the MCI check, the final PCMCI-reconstructed causal network is obtained.
本发明针对CPS系统中无人自主体节点数量多、网络复杂度高的情景,设计了一种基于PCMCI算法的因果网络推断方法。该方法既能够解决非线性系统的因果网络重构问题,同时在高维的网络场景下也具有一定的计算速度优势。针对网络重构问题中经常面临的两难窘境——虚假连边数量一般正比于重构出的真实因果关系数量,为了保证在尽可能完整地重构出真实因果网络的条件下减少虚假连边的数量,本发明采用MCI检验对虚假连边进一步加以剔除,弥补了PC算法虚假连边较多的缺陷,解决了CPS系统的复杂网络重构问题。该方法同时也具有可移植性,适用于其它网络情景下的因果推断问题。The present invention designs a causal network inference method based on the PCMCI algorithm for the situation that the number of unmanned autonomous nodes is large and the network complexity is high in the CPS system. This method can not only solve the problem of causal network reconstruction of nonlinear systems, but also has certain computational speed advantages in high-dimensional network scenarios. Aiming at the dilemma often faced in network reconstruction problems - the number of false connections is generally proportional to the number of reconstructed true causal relationships, in order to ensure that the true causal network is reconstructed as completely as possible to reduce the number of false connections. The invention adopts MCI test to further eliminate false connection edges, which makes up for the defect of PC algorithm that there are many false connection edges, and solves the problem of complex network reconstruction of CPS system. The method is also portable and suitable for causal inference problems in other network scenarios.
本发明重点关注CPS系统的因果网络推断问题,从非线性系统以及高维网络结构出发,开展了网络重构方法研究。该方法对于复杂网络的因果推断与重构具有重要的现实意义。The present invention focuses on the causal network inference problem of the CPS system, and starts from the nonlinear system and the high-dimensional network structure, and conducts research on the network reconstruction method. This method has important practical significance for causal inference and reconstruction of complex networks.
以下将结合附图对本发明的构思、具体结构及产生的技术效果作进一步说明,以充分地了解本发明的目的、特征和效果。The concept, specific structure and technical effects of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, so as to fully understand the purpose, characteristics and effects of the present invention.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1是现有技术中因果网络图模型图示例;1 is an example of a causal network graph model diagram in the prior art;
图2是本发明采用的因果网络时序图示例;Fig. 2 is an example of a causal network sequence diagram adopted by the present invention;
图3是本发明的一个较佳实施例中的因果网络重构后的时序图;Fig. 3 is the sequence diagram after causal network reconstruction in a preferred embodiment of the present invention;
图4是本发明的一个较佳实施例中的PCMCI方法流程图。FIG. 4 is a flow chart of a PCMCI method in a preferred embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
以下参考说明书附图介绍本发明的多个优选实施例,使其技术内容更加清楚和便于理解。本发明可以通过许多不同形式的实施例来得以体现,本发明的保护范围并非仅限于文中提到的实施例。The following describes several preferred embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings, so as to make its technical content clearer and easier to understand. The present invention can be embodied in many different forms of embodiments, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited to the embodiments mentioned herein.
下文中各符号的说明:Description of each symbol below:
X:状态时间序列集合;X: state time series collection;
Xi:无人自主体;X i : Unmanned autonomous body;
无人自主体在时序图中对应的节点; The node corresponding to the unmanned autonomous body in the sequence diagram;
时序图中t时刻之前的所有时序节点集合; The set of all timing nodes before time t in the timing diagram;
对存在“因”关系的父节点; right There is a parent node with a "cause"relationship;
I:独立检验统计量;I: independent test statistic;
Imin(·):独立检验统计量的最小值;I min ( ): the minimum value of the independent test statistic;
独立检验条件; independent inspection conditions;
p:独立检验P值;p: independent test P value;
αPC:独立检验显著性阈值;α PC : independent test significance threshold;
τmax:最大因果滞后时间;τ max : maximum causal lag time;
Nc,max:最大父节点数目;N c,max : the maximum number of parent nodes;
NCI:条件独立性检验次数;N CI : the number of conditional independence tests;
Nc:迭代轮数;N c : the number of iteration rounds;
本发明提供了一种面向信息物理系统的网络推断与重构方法。在本方法当中,首先根据收集到的无人自主体(网络中的节点)的时序状态信息,构建全连通的时序网络图;其次针对任意一个节点,将与该节点不相关的节点进行剔除;接下来进行迭代过程,在每次迭代过程中更新检验条件,并根据条件独立性检验算法不断剔除与该节点相独立的其他节点;在满足终止条件时跳出迭代过程,此时剩余的连边初步构成了该节点与其他节点间的因果关系网络;最后根据瞬态条件独立性检验算法对各连边进行评估,并删除虚假的连边,以完成更加可靠的因果网络重构。The invention provides a network inference and reconstruction method oriented to an information physical system. In this method, firstly, a fully connected time sequence network diagram is constructed according to the collected time sequence state information of unmanned autonomous entities (nodes in the network); secondly, for any node, the nodes that are not related to the node are eliminated; Next, the iterative process is carried out, the test conditions are updated in each iteration process, and other nodes independent of the node are continuously eliminated according to the conditional independence test algorithm; when the termination conditions are met, the iterative process is jumped out, and the remaining edges are initially connected. The causal relationship network between the node and other nodes is formed; finally, each connection is evaluated according to the transient conditional independence test algorithm, and the false connection is deleted to complete a more reliable causal network reconstruction.
基于PCMCI的因果网络推断方法,包括如下具体步骤:The causal network inference method based on PCMCI includes the following specific steps:
步骤1:初始化PC算法的参数,设置输入状态时间序列X=(X1,X2,...,XN)、最大因果滞后时间τmax、最大可存在因果关系的父节点数目(最大迭代轮数)Nc,max、条件独立性检验次数NCI以及终止条件阈值αPC。Step 1: Initialize the parameters of the PC algorithm, set the input state time series X=(X 1 , X 2 ,..., X N ), the maximum causal lag time τ max , the maximum number of parent nodes that can have causal relationships (maximum iteration number of rounds) N c,max , number of conditional independence tests N CI and termination condition threshold α PC .
步骤2:选取某一节点进行初始化,设置其父节点为所有其他节点,设置其与任意其他节点间的独立检验统计量设置初始迭代轮数Nc=0。Step 2: Select a node Initialize, set its parent node For all other nodes, set it to be the same as any other node independent test statistic between Set the initial iteration round number N c =0.
步骤3:第Nc轮迭代。根据PC1算法,对在不同的条件下进行条件独立性检验。Step 3: N c round of iteration. According to the PC 1 algorithm, the in different Conditional independence tests were performed.
步骤4:根据假设检验的显著性水平,对与独立的从其父节点中进行剔除。Step 4: According to the significance level of the hypothesis test, compare the independent from its parent node removed in.
步骤5:若则执行步骤6;否则返回步骤3进行一轮迭代。Step 5: If Then go to step 6; otherwise, return to step 3 for one round of iteration.
步骤6:若所有节点的因果关系均已完成重构则执行步骤7;否则返回执行步骤2。Step 6: If the causal relationship of all nodes has been reconstructed, go to Step 7; otherwise, return to
步骤7:通过MCI检验节点间的瞬态条件独立性,剔除由于间接影响或共同驱动因素而产生的虚假连边,得到最终重构的因果网络。Step 7: Check the transient conditional independence between nodes through MCI, remove false connections due to indirect influences or common driving factors, and obtain the final reconstructed causal network.
具体而言,本发明提供一种面向信息物理系统(CPS)的网络推断与重构方法,考虑的问题是:在CPS系统中,保证重构无人自主体间的实际存在的因果关系的同时,尽可能地减少虚假连边/虚假关系的存在。图1所示为一个CPS中无人自主体间可能存在的因果关系示意图,无人自主体以节点的形式表示,其状态记为Xi,节点间的因果关系用带箭头的实线表示,且若存在由Xi指向Xj的箭头,则我们称无人自主体i为无人自主体j的“因”。由于在实际的物理系统当中,信号的传递是需要时间的,因此节点间的因果关系也是与时间信息挂钩的。图1的图模型并不能表现该因果关系的时间滞后影响,因此在本方法中,我们采用如图2的时序图来进行描述,与图模型不同的是,时序图同时包括节点信息与时间信息,因此可以更为完整地描述网络的因果关系。Specifically, the present invention provides a cyber-physical system (CPS)-oriented network inference and reconstruction method. The problem to be considered is: in the CPS system, while ensuring the reconstruction of the actual causal relationship between unmanned and autonomous entities , to reduce the existence of false connections/false relationships as much as possible. Figure 1 shows a schematic diagram of the causal relationship that may exist between unmanned and autonomous agents in a CPS. Unmanned and autonomous agents are represented in the form of nodes, and their states are denoted as X i , and the causal relationship between nodes is represented by solid lines with arrows. And if there is an arrow pointing from X i to X j , then we call unmanned subject i the "cause" of unmanned subject j. In the actual physical system, the transmission of signals takes time, so the causal relationship between nodes is also linked to time information. The graph model in Figure 1 cannot express the time lag effect of the causal relationship. Therefore, in this method, we use the sequence diagram as shown in Figure 2 to describe it. Unlike the graph model, the sequence diagram includes both node information and time information. , so the causal relationship of the network can be described more completely.
第一步,初始化PC算法的参数,具体包括以下几点:1、网络中无人自主体(节点)的总数N;2、状态时间序列X=(X1,X2,...,XN),即观测到的各节点的时序状态信息;3、最大因果滞后时间τmax,即某一节点发出的物理影响因素对另一节点产生作用所需的最大传递时间;4、最大可存在因果关系的父节点数目(最大迭代轮数)Nc,max,即理论上最多可对某一节点产生影响的节点个数,在本方法中设为网络中包含的节点总数N;5、条件独立性(conditional independence,CI)检验次数NCI,即在每次迭代过程中,条件独立性检验需要检验的条件个数,在本方法中设为1,表明每次迭代只需进行一次CI检验;6、终止条件阈值αPC,即条件独立性假设检验的显著性阈值。The first step is to initialize the parameters of the PC algorithm, including the following points: 1. The total number N of unmanned autonomous entities (nodes) in the network; 2. The state time series X=(X 1 , X 2 ,...,X N ), that is, the observed time-series state information of each node; 3. The maximum causal lag time τ max , that is, the maximum transfer time required for the physical influencing factors emitted by a node to have an effect on another node; 4. The maximum can exist The number of parent nodes of the causal relationship (maximum number of iteration rounds) N c,max , that is, the number of nodes that can theoretically affect a node at most, in this method, it is set as the total number of nodes included in the network N; 5. Conditions The number of tests of independence (conditional independence, CI) N CI , that is, the number of conditions that need to be tested for conditional independence test in each iteration process, is set to 1 in this method, indicating that only one CI test needs to be performed in each iteration 6. Termination condition threshold α PC , that is, the significance threshold of conditional independence hypothesis test.
第二步,任意选取某一节点进行因果关系重构。首先对其进行初始化,设置其父节点为所有其他节点(全连通),即满足下式:The second step is to arbitrarily select a node Reconstruct causality. First initialize it, set its parent node to all other nodes (fully connected), that is, to satisfy the following formula:
其中表示节点的父节点,表示当前时刻t之前时刻的所有时序状态节点的集合,由于实际的物理信息传递需要时间,因此本方法认为同时刻下的其他节点与节点间无因果关系。in represents a node the parent node of , Represents the set of all timing state nodes before the current time t. Since the actual physical information transmission takes time, this method considers other nodes at the same time with node There is no causal relationship between them.
同时,初始化节点与任意其他节点间的独立检验统计量为一个足够大的量,即:At the same time, initialize the node with any other node The independent test statistic between is a large enough quantity, namely:
最后,初始化当前迭代次数Nc=0。Finally, the current iteration number N c =0 is initialized.
第三步,进行第Nc轮迭代。从中选取一个在本轮迭代过程中未进行CI检测的节点对在条件下进行CI检验,其中且满足得到假设检验的P值与独立性大小分别记为(p,I)。在本方法中,采用高斯过程回归(Gaussian process regression,GPR)与距离相关系数(distance correlation,DC)来进行独立性检验,其具体过程如下:The third step is to perform the N c round of iterations. from Select a node that has not undergone CI detection in this round of iterations right in condition The CI test is carried out under the and satisfy The P value and the degree of independence of the hypothesis test were obtained as (p, I), respectively. In this method, Gaussian process regression (GPR) and distance correlation coefficient (distance correlation, DC) are used to test independence. The specific process is as follows:
1、利用贝叶斯非参数回归模型对分别进行回归分析,并计算其P值,其模型如下式所示:1. Use a Bayesian nonparametric regression model to Regression analysis was carried out respectively, and its P value was calculated, and its model was as follows:
2、计算在该模型下的残差为:2. Calculated under this model The residuals are:
3、对于和两者间的独立性可通过与来计算,若I=0则表示两变量是独立的:3. For and The independence between the two can be achieved by and To calculate, if I=0, it means that the two variables are independent:
其中的定义分别如下:in are defined as follows:
其中du、dv分别表示向量u、v的维数。where d u and d v represent the dimensions of the vectors u and v, respectively.
4、更新 4. Update
第四步、若p>αPC,则从中剔除的节点,并根据给进行降序排序;否则返回执行第三步。The fourth step, if p > α PC , then from medium culling node, and according to Give Sort in descending order; otherwise, return to the third step.
第五步,若则节点的因果关系重构完成;否则令Nc=Nc+1,并返回执行第三步进行新一轮迭代。The fifth step, if then the node The reconstruction of the causal relationship is completed; otherwise, let N c =N c +1, and return to the third step for a new round of iteration.
第六步,判断是否所有节点的因果关系均已完成重构,若完成则执行第七步;否则返回执行第二步。The sixth step is to judge whether the causal relationship of all nodes has been reconstructed, and if so, execute the seventh step; otherwise, return to the second step.
第七步,对重构的因果网络进行MCI检验。重构好的网络局部(针对节点)示意图如附图3所示,其中黑色实线表示对于实际存在因果关系的连边,灰色实线表示对于实际不存在因果关系的连边,不同深度颜色的点分别表示不同迭代轮数中被剔除的点,颜色越深表示越晚被剔除,而黑色的点表示最终保留下来的点。可以看到被倒三角符号标识的点并不是实际与存在因果关系的点,因此需要通过MCI对其进行识别与剔除。针对任意一个节点的连边甄别具体过程如下:The seventh step is to perform MCI test on the reconstructed causal network. The reconstructed network part (for nodes ) schematic diagram as shown in Figure 3, wherein the black solid line represents for There is actually a causal connection, and the gray solid line indicates that for There is actually no causal connection. Points with different depth colors represent points that are removed in different iteration rounds. The darker the color, the later the points are removed, and the black points represent the points that are finally retained. It can be seen that the point identified by the inverted triangle symbol is not actually related to the There is a causal relationship, so it needs to be identified and eliminated by MCI. for any node The specific process of edge screening is as follows:
1、对任意节点计算 1. For any node calculate
2、选取任意节点定义为的前pX个节点构成的集合;2. Select any node definition for The set consisting of the first p X nodes of ;
3、对在条件下进行CI检验,其过程同第三步中所述方法;3. Yes in condition The CI test is carried out below, and its process is the same as that described in the third step;
4、根据CI检验结果,剔除虚假连边;4. According to the CI test results, eliminate false connections;
5、选取其他节点重复步骤2~4,若所有节点均已MCI检验完毕,则获得最终PCMCI重构的因果网络。5. Select other nodes and repeat steps 2-4. If all nodes have completed the MCI check, the final PCMCI-reconstructed causal network is obtained.
整个发明的方法可以用图4流程图来说明。The entire inventive method can be illustrated by the flowchart of FIG. 4 .
以上详细描述了本发明的较佳具体实施例。应当理解,本领域的普通技术无需创造性劳动就可以根据本发明的构思作出诸多修改和变化。因此,凡本技术领域中技术人员依本发明的构思在现有技术的基础上通过逻辑分析、推理或者有限的实验可以得到的技术方案,皆应在由权利要求书所确定的保护范围内。The preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail above. It should be understood that many modifications and changes can be made according to the concept of the present invention by those skilled in the art without creative efforts. Therefore, all technical solutions that can be obtained by those skilled in the art through logical analysis, reasoning or limited experiments on the basis of the prior art according to the concept of the present invention shall fall within the protection scope determined by the claims.
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