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CN112862193A - Energy development path deduction method, system and device - Google Patents

Energy development path deduction method, system and device Download PDF

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CN112862193A
CN112862193A CN202110182286.XA CN202110182286A CN112862193A CN 112862193 A CN112862193 A CN 112862193A CN 202110182286 A CN202110182286 A CN 202110182286A CN 112862193 A CN112862193 A CN 112862193A
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徐志成
鲁刚
刘俊
张富强
傅观君
夏鹏
肖鑫利
宋新甫
余中平
关洪浩
伍声宇
金艳鸣
焦冰琦
郑宽
王芃
张晋芳
徐沈智
元博
闫晓卿
栗楠
谭雪
赵秋莉
王晓晨
杨捷
李卓男
侯东羊
徐波
吕梦璇
冯君淑
任娟
高贵亮
余金
于国康
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State Grid Energy Research Institute Co Ltd
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co Ltd
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Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

本发明公开了一种能源发展路径推演方法、系统及装置，该方法包括：获取能源发展相关数据和指标；结合数据，对指标打分，形成各类发电技术评分矩阵；对发电技术评分矩阵计算，得到各类发电技术综合得分，基于综合得分对各类发电技术进行排序，选出各地区优先发展能源电力技术；根据各地区用能多少及各类综合评分排序确定各地区各类发电技术发展规模，形成多个地区的能源电力结构及规模；重复上述步骤，建立不同年份下多个地区的能源电力结构及规模，形成能源电力发展动态推演，本发明不仅能同时考虑多种能源电力技术在不同地区的差异性，且能综合考虑各类决策主体对能源电力技术在不同区域发展的影响，可真实反应规划决策过程。

Figure 202110182286

The invention discloses an energy development path deduction method, system and device. The method includes: acquiring energy development related data and indicators; combining the data, scoring the indicators to form various power generation technology scoring matrices; calculating the power generation technology scoring matrix, Obtain the comprehensive scores of various power generation technologies, sort the various power generation technologies based on the comprehensive scores, and select the priority development of energy and power technologies in each region; determine the development scale of various power generation technologies in each region according to the amount of energy used in each region and the ranking of various comprehensive scores , forming the energy and power structure and scale of multiple regions; repeating the above steps to establish the energy and power structure and scale of multiple regions in different years, forming a dynamic deduction of energy and power development, the present invention can not only consider multiple energy power technologies in different Regional differences, and can comprehensively consider the impact of various decision-making bodies on the development of energy and power technology in different regions, which can truly reflect the planning decision-making process.

Figure 202110182286

Description

Energy development path deduction method, system and device
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of planning and research of energy and power systems, in particular to a method, a system and a device for deducing an energy development path.
Background
The existing energy and power planning methods are all based on optimization planning, and have the following defects:
one is that it is difficult to achieve cost optimization in practice. The optimization method based on the optimal system cost is too ideal, and the optimal cost of the whole social system is difficult to realize in practice.
Secondly, it is difficult to truly reflect the actual decision making process. The traditional energy power planning method does not consider the influence of various decision-making main bodies on the planning scheme, and in the actual planning, the energy power planning is closely related to various planning decision-making main bodies such as industry experts, investors, policy makers, researchers and the like. The appropriate energy and power planning should take the influence of the decision-making bodies on the energy and power planning result into consideration, and the influence is difficult to reflect the real situation of the energy and power planning if neglected.
Therefore, in order to solve the defects in the prior art, a power planning practical process considering multiple agent decisions at the same time needs to be provided.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an energy development path deduction method, an energy development path deduction system and an energy development path deduction device, and aims to solve the problems that an optimization method is too ideal and a decision process is not true.
The embodiment of the invention provides an energy development path deduction method, which comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring data and indexes related to energy development;
s2, combining the data, scoring the obtained indexes to form scoring matrixes of various power generation technologies;
s3, calculating the scoring matrix of each power generation technology to obtain the comprehensive score of each power generation technology, sequencing each power generation technology based on the comprehensive score, and preferably selecting the energy power technology preferentially developed in each region;
s4, determining the development scales of various power generation technologies of each region according to the energy consumption of each region and the comprehensive grading and sequencing of various power generation technologies, and forming energy power structures and scales of a plurality of regions;
and S5, repeating the steps, and establishing energy power structures and scales of a plurality of regions in different years to form dynamic deduction of energy power development.
Preferably, the S1 specifically includes:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining energy resource potentials of multiple regions, the energy consumption of the regions, energy network infrastructure perfection data of the regions in a single year, and unit power generation cost, environmental benefits, social benefits and scene adaptability decision indexes of coal power, natural gas, nuclear power, biomass, hydropower, wind power and solar power generation technology types of the regions.
Preferably, the S2 specifically includes:
and (3) combining the data, scoring the obtained indexes to form a scoring matrix of various power generation technologies, wherein the scoring matrix comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002942445080000021
in the formula, SmatAs a scoring matrix, Ccost、Cenv、Csocial、CscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert grade of the coal power generation technology Gcost、Genv、Gsocial、GscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert score of the gas-electricity power generation technology, Ncost、Nenv、Nsocial、NscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert score of nuclear power generation technology, Bcost、Benv、Bsocial、BscenarioRespectively represent biomass hairExpert scoring, H, the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit, and scene adaptability decision indicators of electrical technologycost、Henv、Hsocial、HscenarioRespectively represents the unit power generation cost, the environmental benefit, the social benefit and the scene adaptability decision index expert score of the hydroelectric power generation technology, Wcost、Wenv、Wsocial、WscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert scoring of the wind power generation technology, Scost、Senv、Ssocial、SscenarioAnd respectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert scores of the solar power generation technology.
Preferably, the scoring matrix of each type of power generation technology is calculated based on formula 2:
Figure BDA0002942445080000031
in the formula, AiIs the comprehensive score of the i-th power generation technology, n is the number of decision indexes, m is the type of the power generation technology, aijIs the score of the jth decision index of the ith index, wijIs the weight of the jth decision metric for the ith metric.
Preferably, the step of determining the development scale of each type of power generation technology in each region according to the energy consumption of each region and the comprehensive grading and sorting of each type of power generation technology specifically comprises the following steps:
s41, obtaining the energy consumption of a plurality of areas, and recording the energy consumption as { T }1,T2,…,Ti,…,TN}；
S42, carrying out comprehensive scoring on various power generation technologies, and recording the comprehensive scoring as Ac、Ag、An、Ab、Ah、Aw、AsSorting according to numerical values from large to small;
s43, designing the development scales of various power supplies according to the principle that the higher the comprehensive score is, the larger the development scale of the power supplies is; the balance is satisfied according to the following formula:
Ac×Dc+Ag×Dg+An×Dn+Ab×Db+Ah×Dh+Aw×Dw+As×Ds＝Tiformula 3;
Tii is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to N, and the energy power structure of the region i is { D }c，Dg，Dn，Db，Dh，Dw，Ds}；
DcThe scale of coal-electricity development; dgScale for natural gas development; dnThe scale of nuclear power development; dbThe scale of biomass development; dhThe scale of hydropower development; dwThe scale of wind power development is obtained; dsThe scale of solar energy development; a. thecComprehensively scoring the coal-electricity power generation technology; a. thegComprehensively scoring the natural gas power generation technology; a. thenComprehensively scoring the nuclear power generation technology; a. thebComprehensively scoring for biomass power generation technology; a. thehComprehensively scoring the hydroelectric power generation technology; a. thewComprehensively scoring the wind power generation technology; a. thesAnd comprehensively scoring the solar power generation technology.
An embodiment of the present invention further provides an energy development path deduction system, including:
the data and metrics acquisition module 210: the method is used for acquiring data and indexes related to energy development;
a scoring module: the scoring device is used for scoring the obtained indexes by combining the data to form scoring matrixes of various power generation technologies;
a comprehensive sequencing module: the system comprises a scoring matrix, a comprehensive scoring matrix and a ranking matrix, wherein the scoring matrix is used for calculating the scoring matrix of each power generation technology to obtain the comprehensive scoring of each power generation technology, and the ranking matrix is used for ranking each power generation technology based on the comprehensive scoring to preferably select the energy power technology preferentially developed in each region;
a determination module: the system is used for determining the development scale of various power generation technologies in each region according to the energy consumption of each region and the comprehensive grading and sequencing of various power generation technologies, and forming the energy power structure and scale of a plurality of regions;
the dynamic deduction module: the system is used for the repeated data and index acquisition module, the grading module, the comprehensive ordering module, the determining module and the dynamic deduction module, and establishes the energy power structures and scales of a plurality of regions in different years to form the dynamic deduction of the energy power development
Preferably, the data and index obtaining module is specifically configured to:
acquiring energy resource potentials of a plurality of regions, the amount of energy used by the regions, energy network infrastructure perfection data of the regions in a single year, and unit power generation cost, environmental benefits, social benefits and scene adaptability decision indexes of coal power, natural gas, nuclear power, biomass, hydropower, wind power and solar power generation technology types of each region;
the scoring module is specifically configured to: and (3) combining the data, scoring the obtained indexes to form a scoring matrix of various power generation technologies, wherein the scoring matrix comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002942445080000051
in the formula, SmatAs a scoring matrix, Ccost、Cenv、Csocial、CscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert grade of the coal power generation technology Gcost、Genv、Gsocial、GscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert score of the gas-electricity power generation technology, Ncost、Nenv、Nsocial、NscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert score of nuclear power generation technology, Bcost、Benv、Bsocial、BscenarioRespectively represents the unit power generation cost, the environmental benefit, the social benefit and the scene adaptability decision index expert score of the biomass power generation technology, Hcost、Henv、Hsocial、HscenarioRespectively represents the unit power generation cost, the environmental benefit, the social benefit and the scene adaptability decision index expert score of the hydroelectric power generation technology, Wcost、Wenv、Wsocial、WscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert scoring of the wind power generation technology, Scost、Senv、Ssocial、SscenarioAnd respectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert scores of the solar power generation technology.
Preferably, the calculating the scoring matrix of each type of power generation technology specifically includes:
Figure BDA0002942445080000061
in the formula, AiIs the comprehensive score of the i-th power generation technology, n is the number of decision indexes, m is the type of the power generation technology, aijIs the score of the jth decision index of the ith index, wijIs the weight of the jth decision metric for the ith metric;
the determining module is specifically configured to:
s41, obtaining the energy consumption of a plurality of areas, and recording the energy consumption as { T }1,T2,…,Ti,…,TN}；
S42, carrying out comprehensive scoring on various power generation technologies, and recording the comprehensive scoring as Ac、Ag、An、Ab、Ah、Aw、AsSorting according to numerical values from large to small;
s43, designing the development scales of various power supplies according to the principle that the higher the comprehensive score is, the larger the development scale of the power supplies is; the balance is satisfied according to the following formula:
Ac×Dc+Ag×Dg+An×Dn+Ab×Db+Ah×Dh+Aw×Dw+As×Ds＝Tiformula (II)3；
TiI is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to N, and the energy power structure of the region i is { D }c，Dg，Dn，Db，Dh，Dw，Ds}，
DcThe scale of coal-electricity development; dgScale for natural gas development; dnThe scale of nuclear power development; dbThe scale of biomass development; dhThe scale of hydropower development; dwThe scale of wind power development is obtained; dsThe scale of solar energy development; a. thecComprehensively scoring the coal-electricity power generation technology; a. thegComprehensively scoring the natural gas power generation technology; a. thenComprehensively scoring the nuclear power generation technology; a. thebComprehensively scoring for biomass power generation technology; a. thehComprehensively scoring the hydroelectric power generation technology; a. thewComprehensively scoring the wind power generation technology; a. thesAnd comprehensively scoring the solar power generation technology.
An embodiment of the present invention further provides an energy development path deduction apparatus, including: a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the computer program, when executed by the processor, implementing the steps of one of the energy development path deductions methods described above.
An embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, where an implementation program for information transfer is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, the method implements the steps of the energy development path deduction method.
By adopting the embodiment of the invention, the differences of various energy power technologies in different regions are considered simultaneously, the influence of various decision-making main bodies on the development of the energy power technologies in different regions can be comprehensively considered, and the decision-making process can be truly planned.
The foregoing description is only an overview of the technical solutions of the present invention, and the embodiments of the present invention are described below in order to make the technical means of the present invention more clearly understood and to make the above and other objects, features, and advantages of the present invention more clearly understandable.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of an energy development path deduction method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of an energy development path deduction system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of an energy development path derivation electronic device according to an embodiment of the invention.
Description of reference numerals:
210: a data and index acquisition module; 220: a scoring module; 230: a comprehensive sequencing module; 240: a determination module; 250: a dynamic deduction module; 310: a memory; 320: a processor.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the following embodiments, and it should be understood that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
In the description of the present invention, it is to be understood that the terms "center", "longitudinal", "lateral", "length", "width", "thickness", "upper", "lower", "front", "rear", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", "clockwise", "counterclockwise", and the like, indicate orientations and positional relationships based on those shown in the drawings, and are used only for convenience of description and simplicity of description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element being referred to must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and thus, should not be considered as limiting the present invention.
Furthermore, the terms "first", "second" and "first" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of technical features indicated. Thus, features defined as "first", "second", may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of the described features. In the description of the present invention, "a plurality" means two or more unless specifically defined otherwise. Furthermore, the terms "mounted," "connected," and "connected" are to be construed broadly and may, for example, be fixedly connected, detachably connected, or integrally connected; can be mechanically or electrically connected; they may be connected directly or indirectly through intervening media, or they may be interconnected between two elements. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood in specific cases to those skilled in the art.
Method embodiment
According to an embodiment of the present invention, an energy development path deduction method is provided, and fig. 1 is a flowchart of the energy development path deduction method of the present invention, which specifically includes:
s1, acquiring data and indexes related to energy development, specifically as follows:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining energy resource potentials of multiple regions, the energy consumption of the regions, energy network infrastructure perfection data of the regions in a single year, and unit power generation cost, environmental benefits, social benefits and scene adaptability decision indexes of coal power, natural gas, nuclear power, biomass, hydropower, wind power and solar power generation technology types of the regions.
S2, combining the data, scoring the obtained indexes to form scoring matrixes of various power generation technologies, such as formula 1;
Figure BDA0002942445080000091
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,Smatas a scoring matrix, Ccost、Cenv、Csocial、CscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert grade of the coal power generation technology Gcost、Genv、Gsocial、GscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert score of the gas-electricity power generation technology, Ncost、Nenv、Nsocial、NscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert score of nuclear power generation technology, Bcost、Benv、Bsocial、BscenarioRespectively represents the unit power generation cost, the environmental benefit, the social benefit and the scene adaptability decision index expert score of the biomass power generation technology, Hcost、Henv、Hsocial、HscenarioRespectively represents the unit power generation cost, the environmental benefit, the social benefit and the scene adaptability decision index expert score of the hydroelectric power generation technology, Wcost、Wenv、Wsocial、WscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert scoring of the wind power generation technology, Scost、Senv、Ssocial、SscenarioAnd respectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert scores of the solar power generation technology.
S3, calculating the scoring matrix of each power generation technology, wherein the formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002942445080000092
in the formula, AiIs the comprehensive score of the i-th power generation technology, n is the number of decision indexes, m is the type of the power generation technology, aijIs the score of the jth decision index of the ith index, wijIs the weight of the jth decision metric for the ith metric.
And obtaining comprehensive scores of various power generation technologies, sequencing the various power generation technologies based on the comprehensive scores, and preferably selecting the energy power technologies preferentially developed in various regions.
S4, determining the development scale of each power generation technology of each region according to the energy consumption of each region and the comprehensive grading and sequencing of each power generation technology, and forming the energy power structure and the scale of a plurality of regions as follows:
s41, obtaining the energy consumption of a plurality of areas, and recording the energy consumption as { T }1,T2,…,Ti,…,TN}；
S42, carrying out comprehensive scoring on various power generation technologies, and recording the comprehensive scoring as Ac、Ag、An、Ab、Ah、Aw、AsSorting according to numerical values from large to small;
s43, designing the development scales of various power supplies according to the principle that the higher the comprehensive score is, the larger the development scale of the power supplies is; the balance is satisfied according to the following formula:
Ac×Dc+Ag×Dg+An×Dn+Ab×Db+Ah×Dh+Aw×Dw+As×Ds＝Tiformula 3;
Tii is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to N, and the energy power structure of the region i is { D }c，Dg，Dn，Db，Dh，Dw，Ds}；
DcThe scale of coal-electricity development; dgScale for natural gas development; dnThe scale of nuclear power development; dbThe scale of biomass development; dhThe scale of hydropower development; dwThe scale of wind power development is obtained; dsThe scale of solar energy development; a. thecComprehensively scoring the coal-electricity power generation technology; a. thegComprehensively scoring the natural gas power generation technology; a. thenComprehensively scoring the nuclear power generation technology; a. thebComprehensively scoring for biomass power generation technology; a. thehComprehensively scoring the hydroelectric power generation technology; a. thewComprehensively scoring the wind power generation technology; a. thesAnd comprehensively scoring the solar power generation technology.
And S5, repeating the steps, and establishing energy power structures and scales of a plurality of regions in different years to form dynamic deduction of energy power development.
By adopting the embodiment of the invention, the differences of various energy power technologies in different regions are considered simultaneously, the influence of various decision-making main bodies on the development of the energy power technologies in different regions can be comprehensively considered, and the decision-making process can be truly planned.
Apparatus embodiment one
According to an embodiment of the present invention, an energy development path deduction system is provided, and fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of an energy development path deduction system module according to an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 3, specifically including:
the data and metrics acquisition module 210: the method is used for acquiring data and indexes related to energy development;
the method is specifically used for: acquiring energy resource potentials of a plurality of regions, the amount of energy used by the regions, energy network infrastructure perfection data of the regions in a single year, and unit power generation cost, environmental benefits, social benefits and scene adaptability decision indexes of coal power, natural gas, nuclear power, biomass, hydropower, wind power and solar power generation technology types of each region;
the scoring module 220: the scoring device is used for scoring the obtained indexes by combining the data to form scoring matrixes of various power generation technologies;
Figure BDA0002942445080000111
in the formula, SmatAs a scoring matrix, Ccost、Cenv、Csocial、CscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert grade of the coal power generation technology Gcost、Genv、Gsocial、GscenarioRespectively represents the unit power generation cost and the environmental benefit of the gas-electric power generation technologySocial benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert scoring, Ncost、Nenv、Nsocial、NscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert score of nuclear power generation technology, Bcost、Benv、Bsocial、BscenarioRespectively represents the unit power generation cost, the environmental benefit, the social benefit and the scene adaptability decision index expert score of the biomass power generation technology, Hcost、Henv、Hsocial、HscenarioRespectively represents the unit power generation cost, the environmental benefit, the social benefit and the scene adaptability decision index expert score of the hydroelectric power generation technology, Wcost、Wenv、Wsocial、WscenarioRespectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert scoring of the wind power generation technology, Scost、Senv、Ssocial、SscenarioAnd respectively representing unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision index expert scores of the solar power generation technology.
The comprehensive ranking module 230: the evaluation matrix is used for calculating the evaluation matrix of each power generation technology, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002942445080000121
in the formula, AiIs the comprehensive score of the i-th power generation technology, n is the number of decision indexes, m is the type of the power generation technology, aijIs the score of the jth decision index of the ith index, wijIs the weight of the jth decision metric for the ith metric;
obtaining comprehensive scores of various power generation technologies, sequencing the various power generation technologies based on the comprehensive scores, and preferably selecting energy power technologies preferentially developed in various regions;
the determination module 240: the system is used for determining the development scale of various power generation technologies in each region according to the energy consumption of each region and the comprehensive grading and sequencing of various power generation technologies, and forming the energy power structure and scale of a plurality of regions;
s41, obtaining the energy consumption of a plurality of areas, and recording the energy consumption as { T }1,T2,…,Ti,…,TN}；
S42, carrying out comprehensive scoring on various power generation technologies, and recording the comprehensive scoring as Ac、Ag、An、Ab、Ah、Aw、AsSorting according to numerical values from large to small;
s43, designing the development scales of various power supplies according to the principle that the higher the comprehensive score is, the larger the development scale of the power supplies is; the balance is satisfied according to the following formula:
Ac×Dc+Ag×Dg+An×Dn+Ab×Db+Ah×Dh+Aw×Dw+As×Ds＝Tiformula 3;
Tii is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to N, and the energy power structure of the region i is { D }c，Dg，Dn，Db，Dh，Dw，Ds}，
DcThe scale of coal-electricity development; dgScale for natural gas development; dnThe scale of nuclear power development; dbThe scale of biomass development; dhThe scale of hydropower development; dwThe scale of wind power development is obtained; dsThe scale of solar energy development; a. thecComprehensively scoring the coal-electricity power generation technology; a. thegComprehensively scoring the natural gas power generation technology; a. thenComprehensively scoring the nuclear power generation technology; a. thebComprehensively scoring for biomass power generation technology; a. thehComprehensively scoring the hydroelectric power generation technology; a. thewComprehensively scoring the wind power generation technology; a. thesAnd comprehensively scoring the solar power generation technology.
The dynamic deduction module 250: the system is used for a repeated data and index acquisition module, a grading module, a comprehensive ordering module, a determination module and a dynamic deduction module, and establishing energy power structures and scales of a plurality of regions in different years to form dynamic deduction of energy power development
The embodiment of the present invention is a system embodiment corresponding to the above method embodiment, and specific operations of each module may be understood with reference to the description of the method embodiment, which is not described herein again.
Device embodiment II
An embodiment of the present invention provides an energy development path deduction apparatus, as shown in fig. 3, including: a memory 30, a processor 32 and a computer program stored on the memory 30 and executable on the processor 32, the computer program, when executed by the processor, implementing the steps of the above-described method embodiments.
Device embodiment III
The embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which an implementation program for information transmission is stored, and when the program is executed by the processor 32, the steps in the above method embodiments are implemented.
The computer-readable storage medium of this embodiment includes, but is not limited to: ROM, RAM, magnetic or optical disks, and the like.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the modules or steps of the present invention described above may be implemented by a general purpose computing device, they may be centralized on a single computing device or distributed across a network of multiple computing devices, and alternatively, they may be implemented by program code executable by a computing device, such that they may be stored in a storage device and executed by a computing device, and in some cases, the steps shown or described may be performed in an order different than that described herein, or they may be separately fabricated into individual integrated circuit modules, or multiple ones of them may be fabricated into a single integrated circuit module. Thus, the present invention is not limited to any specific combination of hardware and software.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and not to limit the same; while the invention has been described in detail and with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some or all of the technical features may be equivalently replaced; and the modifications or the substitutions do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions depart from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1.一种能源发展路径推演方法，其特征在于，具体包括：1. an energy development path deduction method, is characterized in that, specifically comprises: S1、获取能源发展相关的数据和指标；S1. Obtain data and indicators related to energy development; S2、结合所述数据，对获取的所述指标进行打分，形成各类发电技术的评分矩阵；S2. Scoring the obtained indicators in combination with the data to form a scoring matrix of various power generation technologies; S3、对所述各类发电技术的评分矩阵进行计算，得到各类发电技术的综合得分，并基于所述综合得分对各类发电技术进行排序，优选出在各地区优先发展的能源电力技术；S3. Calculate the scoring matrix of the various power generation technologies to obtain comprehensive scores of the various power generation technologies, and rank the various power generation technologies based on the comprehensive scores, and select the energy and power technologies that are preferentially developed in each region; S4、根据各地区用能多少及各类发电技术综合评分排序确定各地区各类发电技术的发展规模，形成多个地区的能源电力结构及规模；S4. Determine the development scale of various power generation technologies in each region according to the amount of energy used in each region and the comprehensive score ranking of various power generation technologies, and form the energy and power structure and scale of multiple regions; S5、重复上述步骤，建立不同年份下多个地区的能源电力结构及规模，形成能源电力发展动态推演。S5. Repeat the above steps to establish the energy and power structure and scale of multiple regions in different years, and form a dynamic deduction of energy and power development. 2.根据权利要求1所述的方法，其特征在于，所述S1具体包括：2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the S1 specifically comprises: 获取单一年份的多个地区能源资源潜力、地区用能多少、能源网络基础设施完善度数据，各地区煤电、天然气、核电、生物质、水电、风电和太阳能发电技术类型的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标。Obtain the energy resource potential of multiple regions in a single year, the amount of energy used in the region, the infrastructure completion data of the energy network, the unit power generation cost of coal power, natural gas, nuclear power, biomass, hydropower, wind power and solar power generation technology types, environmental Benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision-making indicators. 3.根据权利要求1所述的方法，其特征在于，所述S2具体包括：3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the S2 specifically comprises: 结合所述数据，对获取的所述指标进行打分，形成各类发电技术的评分矩阵为：Based on the data, the obtained indicators are scored to form a scoring matrix of various power generation technologies as follows:
Figure FDA0002942445070000021
Figure FDA0002942445070000021
 式中，Smat为评分矩阵，Ccost、Cenv、Csocial、Cscenario分别表示煤电发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Gcost、Genv、Gsocial、Gscenario分别表示气电发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Ncost、Nenv、Nsocial、Nscenario分别表示核电发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Bcost、Benv、Bsocial、Bscenario分别表示生物质发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Hcost、Henv、Hsocial、Hscenario分别表示水电发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Wcost、Wenv、Wsocial、Wscenario分别表示风电发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Scost、Senv、Ssocial、Sscenario分别表示太阳能发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分。In the formula, S mat is the score matrix, C cost , C env , C social , and C scenario represent the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptability decision-making index expert score of coal power generation technology respectively, G cost , G env , G social , G scenario represent the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptability decision-making index expert score of gas-electric power generation technology, respectively, N cost , N env , N social , and N scenario represent the unit power generation of nuclear power generation technology, respectively Expert scores for cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptation decision-making indicators, B cost , B env , B social , and B scenario represent the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptation decision-making indicator of biomass power generation technology, respectively. Score, H cost , H env , H social , H scenario represent the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptability decision-making index expert score of hydropower generation technology respectively, W cost , W env , W social , W scenario represent respectively The expert scores of the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptability decision-making index of wind power generation technology, S cost , S env , S social , and S scenario represent the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario of solar power generation technology, respectively Adaptive Decision Metrics Expert Score. 4.根据权利要求1所述的方法，其特征在于，对所述各类发电技术的评分矩阵进行计算具体包括：4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the calculation of the scoring matrix of the various power generation technologies specifically comprises: 基于公式2对所述各类发电技术的评分矩阵进行计算：Calculate the scoring matrix of the various power generation technologies based on Equation 2:
Figure FDA0002942445070000022
Figure FDA0002942445070000022
 式中，Ai是第i类发电技术的综合评分，n是决策指标的数量，m为发电技术类型，aij是第i个指标的第j个决策指标的评分，wij是第i个指标的第j个决策指标的权重。In the formula, A i is the comprehensive score of the i-th power generation technology, n is the number of decision-making indicators, m is the type of power generation technology, a ij is the score of the j-th decision-making index of the i-th index, and w ij is the i-th decision index. The weight of the jth decision indicator of the indicator. 5.根据权利要求1所述的方法，其特征在于，所述的根据各地区用能量多少及各类发电技术综合评分排序确定各地区各类发电技术的发展规模具体包括：5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining the development scale of various power generation technologies in each region according to the amount of energy used in each region and the comprehensive score ranking of various power generation technologies specifically includes: S41、获取多个区域用能多少，记为{T1,T2,…,Ti,…,TN}；S41. Obtain the amount of energy used by multiple regions, denoted as {T 1 ,T 2 ,…,T i ,…,T N }; S42、对各类发电技术进行综合评分，记为Ac、Ag、An、Ab、Ah、Aw、As，按照数值从大到小进行排序；S42. Make a comprehensive score for various power generation technologies, denoted as A c , Ag , An , Ab , A h , A w , As s , and sort them according to the numerical values from large to small; S43、按照“综合评分越高、该类电源发展规模越大”的原则设计各类电源的发展规模；按照下式满足平衡：S43. Design the development scale of various power supplies according to the principle of "the higher the comprehensive score, the larger the development scale of this type of power supply"; the balance is satisfied according to the following formula: Ac×Dc+Ag×Dg+An×Dn+Ab×Db+Ah×Dh+Aw×Dw+As×Ds＝Ti 公式3；A c ×D c +A g ×D g +A n ×Dn+A b ×D b +A h ×D h +A w ×D w +A s ×D s =T i formula 3; Ti为区域i的用能多少，1≤i≤N,区域i的能源电力结构即为{Dc，Dg，Dn，Db，Dh，Dw，Ds}；T i is the energy consumption of area i, 1≤i≤N, the energy and power structure of area i is {D c , D g , D n , D b , D h , D w , D s }; Dc为煤电发展规模；Dg为天然气发展规模；Dn为核电发展规模；Db为生物质发展规模；Dh为水电发展规模；Dw为风电发展规模；Ds为太阳能发展规模；Ac为煤电发电技术综合评分；Ag为天然气发电技术综合评分；An为核电发电技术综合评分；Ab为生物质发电技术综合评分；Ah为水电发电技术综合评分；Aw为风电发电技术综合评分；As为太阳能发电技术综合评分。D c is the development scale of coal power; D g is the development scale of natural gas; D n is the development scale of nuclear power; D b is the development scale of biomass; D h is the development scale of hydropower; D w is the development scale of wind power; D s is the development scale of solar power ; A c is the comprehensive score of coal power generation technology; A g is the comprehensive score of natural gas power generation technology; An is the comprehensive score of nuclear power generation technology; A b is the comprehensive score of biomass power generation technology; A h is the comprehensive score of hydropower generation technology; A w is the comprehensive score of wind power generation technology; A s is the comprehensive score of solar power generation technology. 6.一种能源发展路径推演系统，其特征在于，包括：6. An energy development path deduction system, characterized in that it comprises: 数据和指标获取模块：用于获取能源发展相关的数据和指标；Data and indicator acquisition module: used to acquire data and indicators related to energy development; 评分模块：用于结合所述数据，对获取的所述指标进行打分，形成各类发电技术的评分矩阵；Scoring module: used to score the obtained indicators in combination with the data to form a scoring matrix of various power generation technologies; 综合排序模块：用于对所述各类发电技术的评分矩阵发电技术进行计算，得到各类发电技术的综合得分，并基于所述综合得分对各类发电技术进行排序，优选出在各地区优先发展的能源电力技术；Comprehensive sorting module: used to calculate the power generation technology of the scoring matrix of the various power generation technologies, obtain the comprehensive scores of the various power generation technologies, and sort the various power generation technologies based on the comprehensive scores, and select the priority in each region. The development of energy and power technology; 确定模块：用于根据各地区用能多少及各类综合评分排序确定各地区各类发电技术的发展规模，形成多个地区的能源电力结构及规模；Determination module: It is used to determine the development scale of various power generation technologies in various regions according to the amount of energy used in each region and the ranking of various comprehensive scores, so as to form the energy and power structure and scale of multiple regions; 动态推演模块：重复数据和指标获取模块、评分模块、综合排序模块、确定模块和动态推演模块，建立不同年份下多个地区的能源电力结构及规模，形成能源电力发展动态推演。Dynamic deduction module: repeated data and index acquisition module, scoring module, comprehensive sorting module, determination module and dynamic deduction module, establish the energy and power structure and scale of multiple regions in different years, and form a dynamic deduction of energy and power development. 7.根据权利要求6所述的系统，其特征在于，所述数据和指标获取模块具体用于：7. The system according to claim 6, wherein the data and index acquisition module is specifically used for: 获取单一年份的多个地区能源资源潜力、地区用能多少、能源网络基础设施完善度数据，各地区煤电、天然气、核电、生物质、水电、风电和太阳能发电技术类型的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标；Obtain the energy resource potential of multiple regions in a single year, the amount of regional energy consumption, the completeness of energy network infrastructure, the unit power generation cost of coal power, natural gas, nuclear power, biomass, hydropower, wind power and solar power generation technology types, environmental Benefit, social benefit and scene adaptability decision-making indicators; 所述评分模块具体用于：结合所述数据，对获取的所述指标进行打分，形成各类发电技术的评分矩阵为：The scoring module is specifically used for: combining the data, scoring the obtained indicators, and forming a scoring matrix of various power generation technologies as follows:
Figure FDA0002942445070000041
Figure FDA0002942445070000041
 式中，Smat为评分矩阵，Ccost、Cenv、Csocial、Cscenario分别表示煤电发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Gcost、Genv、Gsocial、Gscenario分别表示气电发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Ncost、Nenv、Nsocial、Nscenario分别表示核电发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Bcost、Benv、Bsocial、Bscenario分别表示生物质发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Hcost、Henv、Hsocial、Hscenario分别表示水电发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Wcost、Wenv、Wsocial、Wscenario分别表示风电发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分，Scost、Senv、Ssocial、Sscenario分别表示太阳能发电技术的单位发电成本、环境效益、社会效益及场景适应性决策指标专家评分。In the formula, S mat is the score matrix, C cost , C env , C social , and C scenario represent the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptability decision-making index expert score of coal power generation technology respectively, G cost , G env , G social , G scenario represent the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptability decision-making index expert score of gas-electric power generation technology, respectively, N cost , N env , N social , and N scenario represent the unit power generation of nuclear power generation technology, respectively Expert scores for cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptation decision-making indicators, B cost , B env , B social , and B scenario represent the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptation decision-making indicator of biomass power generation technology, respectively. Score, H cost , H env , H social , H scenario represent the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptability decision-making index expert score of hydropower generation technology respectively, W cost , W env , W social , W scenario represent respectively The expert scores of the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario adaptability decision-making indicators of wind power generation technology, S cost , S env , S social , and S scenario represent the unit power generation cost, environmental benefit, social benefit and scenario of solar power generation technology, respectively Adaptive Decision Metrics Expert Score. 8.根据权利要求6所述的系统，其特征在于，基于公式2对所述各类发电技术的评分矩阵进行计算：8. The system according to claim 6, wherein the scoring matrix of the various power generation technologies is calculated based on formula 2:
Figure FDA0002942445070000051
Figure FDA0002942445070000051
 式中，Ai是第i类发电技术的综合评分，n是决策指标的数量，m为发电技术类型，aij是第i个指标的第j个决策指标的评分，wij是第i个指标的第j个决策指标的权重；所述确定模块具体用于：In the formula, A i is the comprehensive score of the i-th power generation technology, n is the number of decision-making indicators, m is the type of power generation technology, a ij is the score of the j-th decision-making index of the i-th index, and w ij is the i-th decision index. The weight of the jth decision indicator of the indicator; the determining module is specifically used for: S41、获取多个区域用能多少，记为{T1,T2,…,Ti,…,TN}；S41. Obtain the amount of energy used by multiple regions, denoted as {T 1 ,T 2 ,…,T i ,…,T N }; S42、对各类发电技术进行综合评分，记为Ac、Ag、An、Ab、Ah、Aw、As，按照数值从大到小进行排序；S42. Make a comprehensive score for various power generation technologies, denoted as A c , Ag , An , Ab , A h , A w , As s , and sort them according to the numerical values from large to small; S43、按照“综合评分越高、该类电源发展规模越大”的原则设计各类电源的发展规模；按照下式满足平衡：S43. Design the development scale of various power supplies according to the principle of "the higher the comprehensive score, the larger the development scale of this type of power supply"; the balance is satisfied according to the following formula: Ac×Dc+Ag×Dg+An×Dn+Ab×Db+Ah×Dh+Aw×Dw+As×Ds＝Ti 公式3；A c ×D c +A g ×D g +A n ×D n +A b ×D b +A h ×D h +A w ×D w +A s ×D s =T i formula 3; Ti为区域i的用能多少，1≤i≤N,区域i的能源电力结构即为{Dc，Dg，Dn，Db，Dh，Dw，Ds}，Ti is the energy consumption of region i, 1≤i≤N, the energy and power structure of region i is {D c , D g , D n , D b , D h , D w , D s }, Dc为煤电发展规模；Dg为天然气发展规模；Dn为核电发展规模；Db为生物质发展规模；Dh为水电发展规模；Dw为风电发展规模；Ds为太阳能发展规模；Ac为煤电发电技术综合评分；Ag为天然气发电技术综合评分；An为核电发电技术综合评分；Ab为生物质发电技术综合评分；Ah为水电发电技术综合评分；Aw为风电发电技术综合评分；As为太阳能发电技术综合评分。D c is the development scale of coal power; D g is the development scale of natural gas; D n is the development scale of nuclear power; D b is the development scale of biomass; D h is the development scale of hydropower; D w is the development scale of wind power; D s is the development scale of solar power ; A c is the comprehensive score of coal power generation technology; A g is the comprehensive score of natural gas power generation technology; An is the comprehensive score of nuclear power generation technology; A b is the comprehensive score of biomass power generation technology; A h is the comprehensive score of hydropower generation technology; A w is the comprehensive score of wind power generation technology; A s is the comprehensive score of solar power generation technology. 9.一种能源发展路径推演装置，其特征在于，包括：存储器、处理器及存储在所述存储器上并可在所述处理器上运行的计算机程序，所述计算机程序被所述处理器执行时实现如权利要求1至5中任一项所述的能源发展路径推演方法的步骤。9. An energy development path deduction device, comprising: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the computer program being executed by the processor When implementing the steps of the energy development path derivation method according to any one of claims 1 to 5. 10.一种计算机可读存储介质，其特征在于，所述计算机可读存储介质上存储有信息传递的实现程序，所述程序被处理器执行时实现如权利要求1至5中任一项所述的能源发展路径推演方法的步骤。10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, an implementation program for information transmission is stored on the computer-readable storage medium, and when the program is executed by a processor, the implementation as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 5 is realized. The steps of the energy development path deduction method described above.
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