CN112541618B - Grid-based active distribution network planning method and storage medium - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种基于网格化的主动配电网规划方法及存储介质,方法包括:将预设的规划区域从小到大依次划分单元地块、供电单元和供电网格;对所述规划区域进行负荷预测,得到负荷预测结果;根据所述负荷预测结果,进行变电站的定容与选址;对所述规划区域进行电网分析和电网评估。本发明可为电网规划决策提供数据支持与科学依据,实现精准规划,辅助相关技术人员进行决策,达到提升工作效率的目的。
The invention discloses a grid-based active distribution network planning method and a storage medium. The method includes: dividing a preset planning area from small to large into unit plots, power supply units and power supply grids; Perform load forecasting in the area to obtain load forecasting results; perform capacity adjustment and site selection for substations according to the load forecasting results; perform grid analysis and grid evaluation for the planned area. The invention can provide data support and scientific basis for grid planning decision-making, realize precise planning, assist relevant technical personnel to make decisions, and achieve the purpose of improving work efficiency.
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及主动配电网技术领域,尤其涉及一种基于网格化的主动配电网规划方法及存储介质。The invention relates to the technical field of active distribution networks, in particular to a grid-based active distribution network planning method and a storage medium.
背景技术Background technique
目前,电网发展专业尚未应用地理信息技术设计相关电网网架结构模型,且其他业务部门所设计的电网模型也不完全适用于发展专业。为打通各业务部门数据标准不一、共享不足等壁垒,如何通过设计相关电网模型,满足配电网规划对网架分层次展现、相关指标展现分析的需求是关键点和难点之一。At present, the power grid development major has not applied geographic information technology to design the relevant power grid structure model, and the power grid models designed by other business departments are not completely suitable for the development major. In order to break through barriers such as different data standards and insufficient sharing of various business departments, how to design relevant power grid models to meet the needs of distribution network planning for hierarchical display of grid structures and display and analysis of related indicators is one of the key points and difficulties.
电网地理信息资源往往只是充当背景看板,并未与电网资源进行任何关联。在电网分析中,如何针对地理资源和电网资源的特性,融合二源相关信息,实现图网二源一体化分析展现新模式是关键点和难点之一。Power grid geographic information resources often only serve as a background kanban, without any association with power grid resources. In the power grid analysis, how to integrate the relevant information of the two sources according to the characteristics of the geographical resources and the power grid resources, and realize the new mode of integrated analysis and display of the two sources of the map and the network is one of the key points and difficulties.
另外,传统的电气计算模型和方法,一般未计及地区电网中越来越多的分布式电源如风力发电、太阳能光伏发电的影响。综合考虑上述因素,保证电气计算的科学性和合理性是关键点和难点之一。In addition, traditional electrical calculation models and methods generally do not take into account the impact of more and more distributed power sources such as wind power and solar photovoltaic power generation in regional power grids. Taking the above factors into consideration, ensuring the scientificity and rationality of electrical calculations is one of the key points and difficulties.
所建成的配电网发展水平,如供电可靠性、电压质量、频率质量、故障恢复时间等关键指标是否能够支撑经济社会发展,是否能匹配新型城镇化的进程要求,能否满足能源消费革命对电网的要求,是衡量规划方案是否有效合理的重要判断标准。同时,规划方案目标设定和投资方案的匹配程度,也是衡量规划方案是否精准、是否经济高效的重要方面。因此,如何选取关键指标和评价模型,评价采用了新技术标准和新技术的城镇配电网是否适应不同城镇产业、社会发展需求,就否经济高效,是关键点和难点之一。The development level of the built distribution network, such as whether key indicators such as power supply reliability, voltage quality, frequency quality, and fault recovery time can support economic and social development, whether it can match the requirements of the new urbanization process, and whether it can meet the needs of the energy consumption revolution. The requirements of the power grid are an important criterion for judging whether the planning scheme is effective and reasonable. At the same time, the degree of matching between the target setting of the planning plan and the investment plan is also an important aspect to measure whether the planning plan is accurate and cost-effective. Therefore, how to select key indicators and evaluation models to evaluate whether the urban distribution network adopting new technology standards and new technologies can adapt to the needs of different urban industries and social development, and whether it is economical and efficient, is one of the key points and difficulties.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明所要解决的技术问题是:提供一种基于网格化的主动配电网规划方法及存储介质,可实现精准规划,提升工作效率。The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a grid-based active distribution network planning method and storage medium, which can realize precise planning and improve work efficiency.
为了解决上述技术问题,本发明采用的技术方案为:一种基于网格化的主动配电网规划方法,包括:In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is: a grid-based active distribution network planning method, including:
将预设的规划区域从小到大依次划分单元地块、供电单元和供电网格;Divide the preset planning area into unit plots, power supply units and power supply grids in order from small to large;
对所述规划区域进行负荷预测,得到负荷预测结果;performing load forecasting on the planning area to obtain a load forecasting result;
根据所述负荷预测结果,进行变电站的定容与选址;According to the load forecasting results, the constant capacity and site selection of substations are carried out;
对所述规划区域进行电网分析和电网评估。Perform grid analysis and grid assessment for the planned area.
本发明还提出一种计算机可读存储介质,其上存储有计算机程序,所述程序被处理器执行时实现如上所述的方法的步骤。The present invention also proposes a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above method are realized.
本发明的有益效果在于:可实现主动配电网空间负荷预测,实现根据空间负荷预测结果确定目标年及中间年待建变电站的位置及其容量,实现配电网的多维度统计分析、拓扑分析及接线分析,并且完成进一步的电气计算分析。基于以上数据综合分析,为配电网精准规划高效投资提供科学依据和有效支撑。本发明可为电网规划决策提供数据支持与科学依据,实现精准规划,辅助相关技术人员进行决策,达到提升工作效率的目的。The beneficial effect of the present invention is that it can realize active distribution network space load prediction, realize the determination of the location and capacity of the substation to be built in the target year and the middle year according to the space load prediction result, and realize multi-dimensional statistical analysis and topology analysis of the distribution network And wiring analysis, and complete further electrical calculation analysis. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the above data, it provides a scientific basis and effective support for the precise planning and efficient investment of the distribution network. The invention can provide data support and scientific basis for grid planning decision-making, realize accurate planning, assist relevant technical personnel to make decisions, and achieve the purpose of improving work efficiency.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1为本发明实施例一的一种基于网格化的主动配电网规划方法的流程图;1 is a flowchart of a grid-based active distribution network planning method according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention;
图2为本发明实施例二的已有变电站的规划区域的变电站选址示意图;2 is a schematic diagram of substation site selection in the planning area of an existing substation according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention;
图3为本发明实施例二的尚无变电站的规划区域的变电站选址示意图。Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of substation site selection in a planned area without a substation in Embodiment 2 of the present invention.
具体实施方式detailed description
为详细说明本发明的技术内容、所实现目的及效果,以下结合实施方式并配合附图详予说明。In order to describe the technical content, achieved goals and effects of the present invention in detail, the following will be described in detail in conjunction with the implementation and accompanying drawings.
实施例一Embodiment one
请参照图1,本发明的实施例一为:一种基于网格化的主动配电网规划方法,可应用于主动配电网规划,包括如下步骤:Please refer to Fig. 1, Embodiment 1 of the present invention is: a grid-based active distribution network planning method, which can be applied to active distribution network planning, including the following steps:
S1:将预设的规划区域从小到大依次划分单元地块、供电单元和供电网格;S1: Divide the preset planning area into unit plots, power supply units and power supply grids in order from small to large;
具体地,根据县级行政区对应的区域,确定规划区域,即以县(区)为单位,对管辖区域进行划分,得到规划区域;对所述规划区域进行网格化划分,得到一个以上的供电网格;分别对各供电网格进行划分,得到一个以上的供电单元;分别对各供电单元进行划分,得到一个以上的单位地块。Specifically, according to the area corresponding to the county-level administrative region, the planning area is determined, that is, the jurisdiction area is divided into the county (district) unit to obtain the planning area; the planning area is divided into grids to obtain more than one power supply grid; respectively divide each power supply grid to obtain more than one power supply unit; divide each power supply unit respectively to obtain more than one unit plot.
S2:对所述规划区域进行负荷预测,得到负荷预测结果。所述负荷预测包括远景负荷预测和近中期负荷预测。S2: Perform load forecasting on the planning area to obtain a load forecasting result. The load forecasting includes long-term load forecasting and short-term load forecasting.
其中,远景负荷预测具体为:Among them, the perspective load forecasting is specifically:
S211:分别收集各单元地块内的功能用地指标信息,所述功能用地指标信息包括大用户信息、分布式电源信息和多元负荷信息。S211: Collect functional land use index information in each unit plot respectively, where the functional land use index information includes large user information, distributed power source information, and multiple load information.
其中,大用户信息包括:大用户名称、电压等级、报装容量、投产时间和历史年最大负荷;分布式电源信息包括:电源名称、电压等级、电源类别、容量和投运时间;多元负荷信息:多元负荷类型、名称、电压等级、存储容量、峰值功率(容量=峰值功率*时间)和投运时间。Among them, large user information includes: large user name, voltage level, installed capacity, commissioning time and historical maximum load; distributed power supply information includes: power supply name, voltage level, power supply category, capacity and commissioning time; multiple load information : Multi-load type, name, voltage level, storage capacity, peak power (capacity = peak power * time) and operation time.
S212:根据所述功能用地指标信息,分别计算各单元地块的饱和年负荷。S212: Calculate the saturated annual load of each unit plot respectively according to the functional land use index information.
具体地,若一单元地块存在对应的土地规划图,则通过空间负荷预测法,计算所述一单元地块的饱和年负荷;若一单元地块不存在对应的土地规划图,且所述一单元地块的类别为特殊用地或水域及其他用地,则根据所述一单元地块内的用户数和预设的单个户数远景平均最高负荷典型值,计算所述一单元地块的饱和年负荷;若一单元地块不存在对应的土地规划图,且属于成熟发展区域,则通过平均增长率法,计算所述一单元地块的饱和年负荷。Specifically, if there is a corresponding land planning map for a unit plot, the saturated annual load of the unit plot is calculated through the spatial load prediction method; if there is no corresponding land planning map for a unit plot, and the If the category of a unit plot is special land or water area or other land use, the saturation of the unit plot is calculated based on the number of users in the unit plot and the preset average maximum load typical value of the number of individual households. Annual load; if there is no corresponding land planning map for a unit plot and it belongs to a mature development area, the saturated annual load of the unit plot is calculated by the average growth rate method.
S213:根据一单元地块的大用户信息中的历史年最大负荷以及饱和年负荷中的最大值,确定所述一单元地块的饱和负荷值。S213: Determine the saturated load value of the one-unit lot according to the maximum value of the historical annual maximum load and the saturated annual load in the large user information of the one-unit lot.
S214:根据供电网格中各单元地块的饱和负荷值以及预设的同时率,计算所述供电网格的远景负荷预测值。优选地,同时率的默认值为0.8,可根据单位地块的类别修改。S214: According to the saturated load value of each unit plot in the power supply grid and the preset simultaneous rate, calculate the forecasted value of the long-term load of the power supply grid. Preferably, the default value of the simultaneous rate is 0.8, which can be modified according to the category of the unit plot.
进一步地,还可根据一供电单元中的各单元地块的饱和负荷值以及预设的同时率,计算所述一供电单元的远景负荷预测值。Further, the long-range load prediction value of a power supply unit can also be calculated according to the saturated load value of each unit plot in a power supply unit and the preset simultaneous rate.
S215:根据各供电网格的远景负荷预测值,计算得到所述规划区域的远景年负荷。S215: Calculate and obtain the future annual load of the planning area according to the forecast value of the future load of each power supply grid.
近中期负荷预测具体为:The short and mid-term load forecasting is specifically:
S221:收集供电网格的现状年和多个历史年的电网基础数据,所述电网基础数据包括各单位地块的配变、线路最大负荷信息及其对应时刻,以及线路出线开关8760点负荷数据;进一步地,还包括人口、GDP、行业用电(包括:农林牧渔业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业,批发和零售业,住宿和餐饮业,金融业,房地产业,租赁和商务服务业,公共服务及管理组织,其他)、产业用电(包括:第一产业、第二产业、第三产业、城镇居民用电、农村居民用电)等。S221: Collect the current year of the power supply grid and the basic data of the power grid in multiple historical years. The basic data of the power grid includes the distribution transformer of each unit plot, the maximum load information of the line and its corresponding time, and the load data of 8760 points of the line outlet switch ; Further, it also includes population, GDP, industry electricity consumption (including: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, transportation, warehousing and postal industry, information transmission, software and information technology service industry, wholesale and retail industry, accommodation and catering industry , financial industry, real estate industry, leasing and business service industry, public service and management organization, others), industrial electricity consumption (including: primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, electricity consumption for urban residents, electricity consumption for rural residents) Wait.
S222:根据现状年的电网基础数据,计算现状年的区域全社会总负荷。S222: Calculate the total social load of the region in the current year according to the basic data of the power grid in the current year.
S223:根据现状年的区域全社会总负荷,以及一供电网格在饱和年的总负荷占所述现状年的区域全社会总负荷的比例或一供电网格在现状年的配变容量占所述供电区域在现状年的总配变容量的比例,计算所述一供电网格的现状年负荷。S223: According to the total regional social load in the current year, and the ratio of the total load of a power supply grid in the saturated year to the total regional social load in the current year or the distribution transformer capacity of a power supply grid in the current year Calculate the current annual load of the power supply grid according to the ratio of the total distribution capacity of the power supply area in the current year.
本步骤即提出了两种算法,分别为基于饱和年“自上而下”的比例分摊算法和基于配变容量“自上而下”比例分摊法。In this step, two algorithms are proposed, which are the "top-down" proportional allocation algorithm based on the saturation year and the "top-down" proportional allocation method based on the distribution transformer capacity.
基于饱和年“自上而下”的比例分摊算法的计算公式为:网格现有负荷=区域全社会总负荷×饱和年该网格所占区域总负荷的比例。The calculation formula of the "top-down" proportional apportionment algorithm based on the saturation year is: the existing load of the grid = the total load of the whole society in the region × the proportion of the total load of the region that the grid accounts for in the saturation year.
基于配变容量“自上而下”比例分摊法的计算公式为:网格现有负荷=区域全社会总负荷×该网格现状配变容量所占区域总配变容量的比例。The calculation formula based on the "top-down" proportional distribution method of distribution transformer capacity is: the existing load of the grid = the total load of the whole society in the region × the ratio of the current distribution transformer capacity of the grid to the total distribution transformer capacity of the region.
S224:根据各供电网格的现状年负荷,计算所述供电区域的现状年负荷。即将各供电网格的现状年负荷累加,得到供电区域的现状年负荷。S224: Calculate the current annual load of the power supply area according to the current annual load of each power supply grid. That is, the current annual load of each power supply grid is accumulated to obtain the current annual load of the power supply area.
S225:分别根据各历史年的电网基础数据,计算各历史年的区域全社会总负荷;S225: According to the basic data of the power grid in each historical year, calculate the total load of the whole society in each historical year;
S226:根据现状年和各历史年的区域全社会总负荷,通过近中期负荷预测法,计算所述规划区域的规划目标年负荷,所述近中期负荷预测法包括年均增长率法、二元回归法、三元回归法、指数增长法、S曲线模型和大用户法,还包括产值单耗、弹性系数、产业用电法、行业用电法、最大负荷利用小时数法等。S226: Calculate the planning target annual load of the planning area through the short-to-medium-term load forecasting method according to the total load of the whole society in the current year and each historical year. The short-to-medium-term load forecasting method includes the average annual growth rate method, binary Regression method, ternary regression method, exponential growth method, S-curve model and large user method, also including unit consumption of output value, elastic coefficient, industrial power consumption method, industry power consumption method, maximum load utilization hours method, etc.
其中,步骤S222和S225中计算区域全社会总负荷的方法包括基于线路负荷“自下而上”累加法和基于配变“自下而上”累加法。Wherein, the methods for calculating the total load of the whole society in the area in steps S222 and S225 include the "bottom-up" accumulation method based on the line load and the "bottom-up" accumulation method based on the distribution transformer.
基于线路负荷“自下而上”累加法具体为,所属该供电网格的所有10千伏线路8760点数据叠加后取最大值,需叠加35kV及以上直供负荷、分布式电源数据,计算公式为:区域全社会负荷=区域10kV网供线路负荷+10kV专线负荷+35kV及以上直供负荷+10kV并网电源出力+低压并网的电源出力+自发自用厂用电。(设备、线路、供电单元、网格的)网供电量直接累加,下载功率与上送功率分别计算并存储。Based on the line load "bottom-up" accumulation method, the specific value is that the data of all 10 kV lines belonging to the power supply grid are superimposed to take the maximum value after the data of 8,760 points are superimposed, and the data of 35 kV and above direct supply loads and distributed power sources need to be superimposed. The calculation formula It is: regional whole society load = regional 10kV network power supply line load + 10kV dedicated line load + 35kV and above direct supply load + 10kV grid-connected power output + low-voltage grid-connected power output + self-generated factory power. (equipment, line, power supply unit, grid) network power supply is directly accumulated, and the download power and upload power are calculated and stored separately.
进一步地,若有线路跨供电网格,则线路在哪个供电网格的占比大就属于哪个供电网格。Further, if a line crosses a power supply grid, the line belongs to which power supply grid the proportion of which is larger.
基于配变“自下而上”累加法具体为:所属该供电网格的配变8760点数据叠加后取最大值,8760点数据存储;需叠加35kV及以上供电大用户、分布式电源数据。(设备、线路、供电单元、网格的)网供电量直接累加,下载功率与上送功率分别计算并存储。The "bottom-up" accumulation method based on the distribution transformer is specifically: the 8760 point data of the distribution transformer belonging to the power grid is superimposed and the maximum value is taken, and the 8760 point data is stored; it is necessary to superimpose the data of large power users and distributed power sources of 35kV and above. (equipment, line, power supply unit, grid) network power supply is directly accumulated, and the download power and upload power are calculated and stored separately.
S3:根据所述负荷预测结果,进行变电站的定容与选址。S3: According to the load prediction result, the capacity and site selection of the substation are performed.
首先进行变电站的定容,具体包括如下步骤:Firstly, the constant capacity of the substation is carried out, which specifically includes the following steps:
S311:根据预设的规划区域负荷增速,设定容载比取值范围。例如,若负荷增速Kp≤7%,则容载比取值范围为1.8-2.0;若7%<Kp≤12%,则容载比取值范围为1.9-2.1;若Kp>12%,则容载比取值范围为2.0-2.2。S311: Set the value range of the capacity-to-load ratio according to the preset planning area load growth rate. For example, if the load growth rate Kp≤7%, the capacity-to-load ratio ranges from 1.8-2.0; if 7%<Kp≤12%, the capacity-to-load ratio ranges from 1.9-2.1; if Kp>12%, Then the capacity-to-load ratio ranges from 2.0 to 2.2.
S312:根据所述规划区域的规划目标年负荷、容载比取值范围以及现有容量数据,计算新增容量范围。S312: Calculate the new capacity range according to the planning target annual load of the planning area, the value range of the capacity-to-load ratio and the existing capacity data.
具体地,新增容量=规划目标年负荷*容载比-现有容量。Specifically, newly added capacity = planning target annual load * capacity-to-load ratio - existing capacity.
S313:设定定容策略,所述定容策略为先布点或先扩建。对于快速增长区域、成熟饱和区域以新增布点为主(布点难或收益快);对于负荷缓慢增长初期、投资效益长期难以回收的区域,在可以满足需求的条件下,以主变扩建为主。S313: Set a capacity-constant strategy, where the capacity-constant strategy is to deploy first or expand first. For fast-growing areas and mature and saturated areas, newly added points are the main points (difficult to set up points or quick returns); for areas with slow load growth and long-term investment returns that are difficult to recover, under the condition that the demand can be met, the expansion of the main transformer should be the main method .
S314:根据所述定容策略以及电压等级和供电区域类型,确定变电站数量与容量。S314: Determine the number and capacity of substations according to the capacity constant strategy, voltage level, and power supply area type.
然后进行变电站的选址,具体地,对于已存在变电站的规划区域,确定规划区域内的已有变电站的最大供电范围,然后在规划区域内剔除所述最大供电范围的区域以及预设的不可建设变电站的区域,确定变电站的选址范围;将所述选址范围的几何中心点作为可行的布点区域。Then select the location of the substation, specifically, for the planning area of the existing substation, determine the maximum power supply range of the existing substation in the planning area, and then eliminate the area of the maximum power supply range and the preset non-construction area in the planning area The area of the substation determines the site selection range of the substation; the geometric center point of the site selection range is used as a feasible distribution area.
对于尚未建设变电站的规划区域,则根据所述规划区域内各供电网格的现状年负荷和面积,计算各供电网格的现状负荷密度;对现状负荷密度高于预设值的供电网格进行拓扑识别,得到第一中心点;对规划区域内的所有供电网格进行拓扑识别,得到第二中心点;将所述第一中心点和第二中心点的连线中点作为可行的布点区域;For the planning area where the substation has not been built, the current load density of each power grid is calculated according to the current annual load and area of each power grid in the planning area; the current load density of the power grid is higher than the preset value. Topology identification to obtain the first center point; perform topology identification on all power supply grids in the planning area to obtain the second center point; use the midpoint of the connection line between the first center point and the second center point as a feasible distribution area ;
最后根据所述可行的布点区域以及所述规划区域的远景年负荷,确定新建变电站地址。Finally, the address of the new substation is determined according to the feasible distribution area and the prospective annual load of the planning area.
S4:对所述规划区域进行电网分析和电网评估。S4: Perform grid analysis and grid evaluation on the planned area.
具体地,对所述规划区域中电压等级为35kV及以上的电网进行电网统计、电网拓扑分析、接线模式分析和辅助电气计算。Specifically, grid statistics, grid topology analysis, wiring mode analysis, and auxiliary electrical calculations are performed on grids with a voltage level of 35kV and above in the planning area.
其中,电网统计即对对电网设备类型、年份、规划性质等进行统计,根据统计结果查看相关信息。例如:对于线路,统计信息包括线路名称、投运时间、类型(架空、电缆)、起始电站、终止电站等。Among them, power grid statistics is to make statistics on the type, year, planning nature, etc. of power grid equipment, and view relevant information according to the statistical results. For example: for lines, statistical information includes line name, commissioning time, type (overhead, cable), starting power station, terminating power station, etc.
电网拓扑分析即对35kV及以上网架进行分析,找出网架拓扑连接关系和带电范围,为典型接线方式识别做数据准备,给出详细分析结果。Power grid topology analysis is to analyze the grid structure of 35kV and above, find out the grid topology connection relationship and live range, prepare data for the identification of typical wiring methods, and give detailed analysis results.
接线模式分析即对35kV及以上网架接线模式进行识别,找出辐射、链式、环式、T接、π接等典型接线方式,给出详细分析结果。Wiring mode analysis is to identify the wiring mode of 35kV and above grids, find out typical wiring modes such as radiation, chain, ring, T connection, π connection, etc., and give detailed analysis results.
辅助电气计算包含但不限于以下电气计算:(1)潮流计算;(2)短路计算;(3)N-1通过率计算。Auxiliary electrical calculations include but are not limited to the following electrical calculations: (1) Power flow calculation; (2) Short circuit calculation; (3) N-1 pass rate calculation.
进一步地,还对所述规划区域中电压等级为10kV及以下的电网进行电网统计、电网拓扑分析、接线模式分析、辅助电气计算和电网评估。Further, grid statistics, grid topology analysis, wiring mode analysis, auxiliary electrical calculation and grid evaluation are also performed on grids with a voltage level of 10kV and below in the planning area.
其中,电网统计同上。Among them, the grid statistics are the same as above.
电网拓扑分析即对10kV网架网架进行分析,找出网架拓扑连接关系和带电范围,为典型接线方式识别、主干分析、最长路径分析、拓扑岛分析、分段联络分析做数据准备,并给出详细分析结果。Grid topology analysis is to analyze the 10kV grid grid, find out the topological connection relationship and live range of the grid, and prepare data for typical wiring mode identification, backbone analysis, longest path analysis, topology island analysis, and segmental connection analysis. And give detailed analysis results.
接线模式分析即对10kV网架进行接线模式识别,找出架空网、电缆网、混合网架的典型接线方式,给出详细分析结果。Wiring mode analysis is to identify the wiring mode of the 10kV grid, find out the typical wiring mode of the overhead grid, cable network, and hybrid grid, and give detailed analysis results.
辅助电气计算包含但不限于以下电气计算:(1)短路计算;(2)N-1通过率计算。Auxiliary electrical calculations include but are not limited to the following electrical calculations: (1) Short circuit calculation; (2) N-1 pass rate calculation.
电网评估的指标包括综合指标、电网结构指标、设备水平指标、供电能力指标、智能化及绿色发展指标和电网效益指标。The indicators for power grid evaluation include comprehensive indicators, grid structure indicators, equipment level indicators, power supply capacity indicators, intelligent and green development indicators, and grid efficiency indicators.
其中,综合指标包括户均停电时间、综合电压合格率和10kV及以下综合线损率。电网结构指标包括10kV线路平均供电半径、10kV架空线路平均分段数、10kV线路联络率、10kV线路站间联络率、10kV线路N-1通过率和10kV线路标准化接线占比。设备水平指标包括10kV在运设备平均投运年限、10kV线路电缆化率、10kV架空线路绝缘化率和10kV高损耗配电变压器占比。供电能力指标包括10kV线路最大负载率平均值、10kV重载线路占比、10kV配电变压器最大负载率平均值、10kV重载配电变压器占比、10kV线路装接容量和10kV线路不安全负荷。智能化及绿色发展指标包括配电自动化覆盖率、“三遥”终端占比、配电变压器信息采集率、分布式电源渗透率和分布式电源消纳率。电网效益指标包括单位投资增供负荷和单位投资增售电量。Among them, the comprehensive indicators include the average power outage time per household, the comprehensive voltage qualification rate and the comprehensive line loss rate of 10kV and below. Grid structure indicators include the average power supply radius of 10kV lines, the average number of segments of 10kV overhead lines, the connection rate of 10kV lines, the connection rate between stations of 10kV lines, the N-1 pass rate of 10kV lines and the proportion of standardized wiring of 10kV lines. The equipment level indicators include the average service life of 10kV equipment in operation, the cable conversion rate of 10kV lines, the insulation rate of 10kV overhead lines, and the proportion of 10kV high-loss distribution transformers. Power supply capacity indicators include the average maximum load rate of 10kV lines, the proportion of 10kV heavy-duty lines, the average maximum load rate of 10kV distribution transformers, the proportion of 10kV heavy-duty distribution transformers, the installation capacity of 10kV lines and the unsafe load of 10kV lines. Intelligent and green development indicators include the coverage rate of distribution automation, the proportion of "three remote" terminals, the information collection rate of distribution transformers, the penetration rate of distributed power and the consumption rate of distributed power. Power grid efficiency indicators include unit investment to increase supply load and unit investment to increase sales of electricity.
本实施例可实现主动配电网空间负荷预测,实现根据空间负荷预测结果确定目标年及中间年待建变电站的位置及其容量,实现配电网的多维度统计分析、拓扑分析及接线分析,并且完成进一步的电气计算分析。基于以上数据综合分析,为配电网精准规划高效投资提供科学依据和有效支撑。This embodiment can realize active distribution network space load prediction, realize the location and capacity of substations to be built in the target year and intermediate years according to the space load prediction results, and realize multi-dimensional statistical analysis, topology analysis and wiring analysis of the distribution network. And complete further electrical calculation analysis. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the above data, it provides a scientific basis and effective support for the precise planning and efficient investment of the distribution network.
实施例二Embodiment two
本实施例为上述实施例的一具体实现场景。This embodiment is a specific implementation scenario of the foregoing embodiments.
一、网格化规划业务流程1. Grid planning business process
针对线上作业模式特点,遵循问题导向与目标导向有效结合,建立一种在GIS图上分层级协同规划作业的模式,设置“规划版本-规划方案-规划项目”三层管理,实现各区域规划版本合并、不同规划方案比选、规划项目统一管理,可以有效加强各层级的规划衔接,提升网格化规划的整体性、连贯性、经济性。业务流程初步梳理如下:According to the characteristics of the online operation mode, follow the effective combination of problem-oriented and goal-oriented, establish a mode of hierarchical collaborative planning operations on the GIS map, and set up a three-layer management of "planning version-planning scheme-planning project" to realize regional The merging of planning versions, comparison and selection of different planning schemes, and unified management of planning projects can effectively strengthen the connection of planning at all levels and improve the integrity, coherence, and economy of grid planning. The preliminary business process is as follows:
1、基准图设定1. Benchmark setting
对规划的基准时间进行明确,一般以每年12月31日作为时间断面,或者以启动规划任务的前一个月底电网断面作为基准图(离现状时间越近,网架拓扑关系更贴近实际),确定的权限可以由上级单位(国网、省、市公司)进行明确。Define the benchmark time of planning, generally take December 31st of each year as the time section, or take the power grid section at the end of the month before the start of the planning task as the benchmark map (the closer the time is to the current situation, the closer the grid topology relationship is to reality), and determine The authority of the authority can be clarified by the superior unit (State Grid, provincial and municipal companies).
2、规划区域版本管理2. Planning regional version management
以县(区)为单位进行规划区域版本的创建,由所辖单位在基准图上进行供电区域、供电网格、供电单元以及农城网的划分和绘制。绘制完成后进行发布,规划区域版本可以根据实际情况进行修改,新的版本可以在已发布的版本的基础上进行修改。The planning area version is created with the county (district) as the unit, and the division and drawing of the power supply area, power supply grid, power supply unit, and rural-urban network are carried out by the unit under the jurisdiction on the reference map. After the drawing is completed, it will be published. The version of the planning area can be modified according to the actual situation, and the new version can be modified on the basis of the released version.
3、规划版本创建3. Planning version creation
在完成基准图设定和规划区域版本发布后,对常态规划工作,由县(区)公司自主创建下阶段的规划版本,可以根据实际需求创建子版本,各子版本可以相互叠加,并且以最终确认的子版本进行发布,已发布的子版本应具备合并功能。对于上级单位统一发布规划任务,以上级单位的规定为主。After completing the setting of the benchmark map and the release of the planning area version, for the normal planning work, the county (district) company will independently create the planning version of the next stage, and can create sub-versions according to actual needs, and each sub-version can be superimposed on each other, and the final Confirmed sub-versions are released, and the released sub-versions should have the merge function. For the unified release of planning tasks by higher-level units, the regulations of the higher-level units shall prevail.
4、电网诊断4. Grid diagnosis
借助诊断模型,以规划基准时间所在年度的最大负荷日等典型日数据作为基础,结合该时间段汇集的问题库清单,对电网开展诊断分析,综合考虑调度、运检等问题清单,经人工二次审核确认后,将问题清单汇合流转至问题库。With the help of the diagnostic model, based on the typical daily data such as the maximum load day of the year where the planning reference time is located, combined with the list of problem databases collected during this time period, the diagnostic analysis of the power grid is carried out, and the list of problems such as dispatching and operation inspection is comprehensively considered. After the first review and confirmation, the confluence of the list of questions will be transferred to the question bank.
5、负荷预测5. Load forecasting
采用空间负荷预测为主的方法,自下而上逐级测算供电网格饱和负荷以及各规划水平年负荷,并根据饱和负荷预测结果对供电网格划分进行校核,需要对供电网格(单元)进行调整的,对规划区域版本进行修改。Using the method of spatial load forecasting as the main method, the saturated load of the power supply grid and the annual load of each planning level are calculated step by step from bottom to top, and the division of the power supply grid is checked according to the predicted results of the saturated load. ) to be adjusted, the planning area version shall be revised.
6、规划目标6. Planning objectives
导入或手工绘制目标网架、设定规划目标指标值,为后续网架规划和成效分析提供比对标准。Import or manually draw the target network structure, set the planning target index value, and provide comparison standards for subsequent network structure planning and effectiveness analysis.
7、规划方案创建7. Create a plan
以单个或多个网格为单位,筛选出网格区域内存在的问题清单,结合负荷预测需求,对问题清单进行关联,考虑一个规划方案可同时解决多问题情况,并注重与目标网架衔接,针对不同解决措施创建规划方案,同一个规划方案可以由一个或若干个项目组成。Take a single or multiple grids as a unit, screen out the list of problems existing in the grid area, combine the load forecasting requirements, associate the list of problems, consider a planning scheme that can solve multiple problems at the same time, and pay attention to the connection with the target grid , to create planning schemes for different solutions, and the same planning scheme can consist of one or several projects.
8、经济技术方案比对8. Comparison of economic and technical solutions
对解决问题的不同方案采用经济技术法、潮流计算、人工干预等方法进行比选,无需比选的方案经审核后直接固化。The different solutions to the problem are compared and selected by means of economic and technical methods, power flow calculations, and manual intervention.
9、规划方案固化9. Solidification of planning scheme
根据比选结果,确定更优的规划方案,对规划方案进行固化,该规划方案内的项目自动确认并流转至规划项目库进行管理。According to the comparison and selection results, a better planning scheme is determined, and the planning scheme is solidified. The projects in the planning scheme are automatically confirmed and transferred to the planning project library for management.
10、规划版本发布10. Planning version release
完成该版本所有规划方案固化后,对已固化的规划方案进行合并,形成阶段规划版本成果,以县(区)公司为单位对版本进行发布,各子版本可以进行合并。After completing the solidification of all the planning schemes of this version, merge the solidified planning schemes to form the stage planning version results, and release the version with the county (district) company as a unit, and each sub-version can be merged.
11、规划成果11. Planning results
以县(区)为单位形成细化到规划前3年的网格的网架规划地理接线图,并统计规划期的电网设备规模和投资规模、规划期前3年逐年细化的建设时序。Form a geographical wiring diagram of grid planning detailed to the grid in the first 3 years of planning with the county (district) as the unit, and make statistics on the scale of grid equipment and investment in the planning period, and the construction time sequence refined year by year in the first 3 years of the planning period.
二、网格划分2. Grid division
(一)规划区域版本管理(1) Planning regional version management
以县(区)为单位进行规划区域版本的创建,由所辖单位在基准图上进行供电区域、供电网格以及农城网的划分和绘制。绘制完成后进行发布,规划区域版本可以根据实际情况进行修改,新的版本可以在已发布的版本的基础上进行修改。The planning area version is created with the county (district) as the unit, and the division and drawing of the power supply area, power supply grid, and rural-urban network are carried out by the units under the jurisdiction on the reference map. After the drawing is completed, it will be published. The version of the planning area can be modified according to the actual situation, and the new version can be modified on the basis of the released version.
1、规划区域版本创建1. Planning regional version creation
以县(区)为单位对管辖区域进行规划区域版本的创建,应包括规划版本名称、版本所在区域、创建时间、创建人等信息。The creation of the planning area version for the jurisdiction area in the unit of county (district) should include the name of the planning version, the area where the version is located, the time of creation, the creator and other information.
2、规划区域版本绘制2. Planning area version drawing
规划区域版本内容应包括供电区域、供电网格、供电单元和城农网区域的绘制,设置城农网、供电区域、供电网格等三个绘制模块。The content of the planning area version should include the drawing of power supply area, power supply grid, power supply unit and urban-rural grid area, and set up three drawing modules of urban-rural grid, power supply area, and power supply grid.
3、规划区域版本发布3. Planning regional version release
完成规划区域版本绘制后,经审核完成后进行确认发布。After the drawing of the planning area version is completed, it will be confirmed and released after the review is completed.
4、规划区域版本更新4. Planning regional version update
根据实际需求,可以对已发布的规划区域版本进行继承,并在此基础上进行修改、保存、发布。According to actual needs, the published planning area version can be inherited, and modified, saved, and released on this basis.
(二)规划版本管理(2) Planning version management
1、规划版本创建1. Planning version creation
根据规划任务,选择某个时间断面的基准图和规划区域版本,在此基础上,以县(区)为单位对管辖区域进行规划版本的创建,应包括规划版本名称、版本所在区域、创建时间、创建人等信息。规划版本创建完成后,可以在该版本下创建规划方案。According to the planning task, select the reference map and the planning area version of a certain time section, and on this basis, create the planning version for the jurisdiction area in units of counties (districts), which should include the name of the planning version, the area where the version is located, and the creation time , Creator and other information. After the planning version is created, a planning scheme can be created under this version.
2、规划版本发布2. Planning version release
一个规划版本由一个或若干个规划方案组成,在完成规划区域内所有规划方案编制后,对确认的规划方案进行勾选,对该规划版本进行发布。A planning version consists of one or several planning schemes. After completing the preparation of all planning schemes in the planning area, check the confirmed planning schemes and release the planning version.
3、规划版本修改3. Planning version modification
根据实际需求,可以在已发布的规划版本的基础上进行修改及更新,并可以查看任意规划版本内的所有规划方案及以下的规划项目,修改完成后进行发布。According to actual needs, it can be modified and updated on the basis of the published planning version, and all planning schemes and the following planning items in any planning version can be viewed, and released after the modification is completed.
4、规划版本存储4. Plan version storage
对任意规划版本内的所有规划方案进行存储,新的规划版本及规划方案不得覆盖原有规划版本及其下的规划方案。All planning schemes in any planning version are stored, and new planning versions and planning schemes must not overwrite the original planning version and the planning schemes under it.
5、规划版本查看5. View the planning version
按照管辖区域设置权限,可以查看本单位及下级单位网格化规划版本开展情况。Permissions are set according to the jurisdictional area, and you can view the development of the grid planning version of the unit and its subordinate units.
三、负荷预测3. Load Forecasting
负荷预测是根据电力负荷的过去和现在推测它的未来数值的一项工作,是网格化规划的一个重要流程环节,也是衔接市政控规与用电需求平衡的重要操作手段。在网格化规划中开展负荷预测,首先需要调查收集多方面的数据资料,包括电力企业内部资料和外部资料,国民经济有关部门的资料等,比如网格内的负荷、电量、充电桩、分布式电源数据,规划区域内的人口、GDP、产业电量、行业电量等历史年数据,整理和筛选后进行数据分析,并结合多种电力需求预测模型,根据近、中、远期的规划目标,开展近中期及远景负荷预测工作,预测结果可以指导开展变电站选址定容等相关工作。Load forecasting is a task of estimating its future value based on the past and present of electric load. It is an important process link of grid planning and an important operation means to connect municipal control regulations and power demand balance. To carry out load forecasting in grid planning, it is first necessary to investigate and collect various data, including internal and external data of power companies, and data from relevant departments of the national economy, such as load, electricity, charging piles, distribution in the grid, etc. Type power supply data, historical annual data such as population, GDP, industrial electricity, and industrial electricity in the planning area, sorted out and screened for data analysis, combined with a variety of power demand forecast models, according to short-, medium-, and long-term planning goals, Carry out near-medium-term and long-term load forecasting work, and the forecast results can guide the development of related work such as site selection and capacity determination of substations.
(一)远景负荷预测(1) Long-term load forecasting
远景负荷预测功能主要分为:功能用地指标收集、单位地块负荷计算、参数设定和预测结果与展示;具体如下所述。The functions of long-term load forecasting are mainly divided into: collection of functional land use indicators, load calculation per unit plot, parameter setting, and forecasting results and display; details are as follows.
1、功能用地指标收集。1. Collection of functional land use indicators.
根据政府的土地规划图拆分至单位地块,收集单位地块内的大用户信息、充电桩信息、分布式电源信息及多元负荷信息。According to the government's land planning map, it is divided into unit plots, and the large user information, charging pile information, distributed power supply information and multi-load information in the unit plots are collected.
按照规划区域范围单元从小到大依次分为:单位地块、供电单元、供电网格。供电网格再往上为县级供电区域、市级供电区域、省级供电区域。According to the scope of the planning area, the units are divided into: unit plots, power supply units, and power supply grids. The power supply grid is further upwards into county-level power supply areas, city-level power supply areas, and provincial-level power supply areas.
收集内容包括:地块控规规划信息以及该地块的大用户信息、分布式电源信息。大用户信息包括:大用户名称、电压等级、报装容量、投产时间、历史年最大负荷;分布式电源信息包括:电源名称、电压等级、电源类别、容量、投运时间;多元负荷信息包括:多元负荷类型、名称、电压等级、存储容量、峰值功率(容量=峰值功率*时间)、投运时间。The collection content includes: land control planning information, large user information of the land, and distributed power supply information. Large user information includes: large user name, voltage level, installed capacity, commissioning time, and historical maximum load; distributed power supply information includes: power supply name, voltage level, power supply category, capacity, and commissioning time; multi-load information includes: Multiple load types, names, voltage levels, storage capacity, peak power (capacity = peak power * time), and commissioning time.
单位地块显示内容包括:地块名称、用地类型、所属供电单元、供电区域类型、占地面积、有效供电面积(默认等于占地面积、可人为修改)、容积率、建筑面积、备注(备注需在控规用地时维护,备注信息主要针对大用户的行业特点、年用电量方面描述)。The display content of the unit plot includes: plot name, land type, power supply unit, power supply area type, land area, effective power supply area (default equal to land area, can be modified artificially), floor area ratio, building area, remarks (remarks It needs to be maintained when the land is controlled and used, and the remark information is mainly for the industry characteristics of large users and the description of annual power consumption).
供电单元显示内容包括:供电单元名称、所属供电网格、供电区域类型、占地面积、有效供电面积、建筑面积、容积率、供电单元内主要用地类型占比(默认显示比值大的前两种)、备注。The display content of the power supply unit includes: the name of the power supply unit, the power supply grid to which it belongs, the type of power supply area, the floor area, the effective power supply area, the building area, the floor area ratio, and the proportion of the main land types in the power supply unit (the first two with the larger ratio are displayed by default. ),Remark.
供电网格显示内容包括:供电网格名称、所属区域、供电区域类型、占地面积、有效供电面积、建筑面积、容积率、备注。The display content of the power supply grid includes: the name of the power supply grid, the area it belongs to, the type of power supply area, the floor area, the effective power supply area, the building area, the floor area ratio, and the remarks.
其中,容积率=建筑面积/占地面积。对于只有总规没有控规的区域,根据具体实际情况人为给定,如果单位地块给定的容积率数值为区间范围,则取最高值。典型地块容积率参照表如表3.1所示。Among them, floor area ratio = construction area / floor area. For areas with only general rules and no control rules, it is artificially determined according to the specific actual situation. If the value of the plot ratio given by the unit plot is within an interval range, the highest value is taken. The reference table of typical plot volume ratio is shown in Table 3.1.
表3.1:典型地块容积率参照表Table 3.1: Reference table of plot ratio of typical plots
2、单位地块负荷计算。2. Unit plot load calculation.
集成单位地块内的大用户、充电桩、分布式电源、多元负荷数据,用空间负荷预测方法计算饱和年负荷,提供基础的数据录入与维护功能,支持对单位地块的大用户、充电桩、分布式电源数据的修改,方便修正目标年负荷数据。Integrate large users, charging piles, distributed power sources, and multiple load data in the unit plot, use the spatial load forecasting method to calculate the saturated annual load, provide basic data entry and maintenance functions, and support large users and charging piles in the unit plot , The modification of distributed power source data facilitates the modification of target annual load data.
单位地块负荷计算方法选择根据单元地块的类型做三种方式处理:The calculation method of the unit plot load is selected in three ways according to the type of the unit plot:
(1)对已有土地规划图的区域采用空间负荷预测法进行计算;计算公式方法为:(1) Use the space load forecasting method to calculate the area of the existing land planning map; the calculation formula method is:
当该地块仅有占地面积,无容积率时,选用建设用地密度指标计算该地块的饱和负荷;当有同时率指标时,选用建筑密度指标计算该地块的饱和负荷;计算公式为:X1=面积*指标;When the plot has only occupied area and no plot ratio, use the construction land density index to calculate the saturated load of the plot; when there is a simultaneous rate index, use the building density index to calculate the saturated load of the plot; the calculation formula is: : X 1 = area * index;
获取该地块现有大用户负荷,计算报装大用户负荷;计算公式为:X2=报装容量*负载率;Obtain the existing large user load of the plot, and calculate the reported large user load; the calculation formula is: X 2 = reported installed capacity * load rate;
计算地块充电桩负荷最高值;计算公式为:X3=慢充车位数*单位负荷+快充车位数*单位负荷。Calculate the maximum load of charging piles in the plot; the calculation formula is: X 3 = number of slow-charging parking spaces * unit load + number of fast-charging parking spaces * unit load.
对上述三部分内容做叠加计算,即可得到远景负荷目标值,即y=X1+X2+k1*X3,y为远景负荷目标值,k1为充电桩负荷与地块饱和负荷的同时率系数。By superimposing the above three parts, the target value of the future load can be obtained, that is, y=X 1 +X 2 +k 1 *X 3 , where y is the target value of the future load, and k 1 is the load of the charging pile and the saturated load of the plot The simultaneous rate coefficient of .
(2)对无土地规划图且属于D、E类区域(D类用地为特殊用地,如军事用地、外事用地和保安用地;E类用地为水域及其他用地),按照户均法进行计算;计算公式为:y=k2*N,N为单位地块内的用户数,k2为单位户数远景平均最高负荷(根据当地实际情况给定典型值);(2) For areas without a land planning map and belonging to categories D and E (category D is land for special use, such as military land, foreign affairs land, and security land; land for category E is water area and other land), the calculation shall be carried out according to the household average method; The calculation formula is: y=k 2 *N, N is the number of users in the unit plot, k 2 is the average maximum load of the unit number of households (given a typical value according to the local actual situation);
(3)对无土地规划图且属于成熟发展区域,采用平均增长率法进行计算;计算公式为y=a*(1+k3)n,a为规划基础年区域负荷最大值,n为区域达到饱和所需要的时间,k3为发展成熟区域近期负荷增长的平均值。(3) For areas without land planning maps and mature development areas, the average growth rate method is used for calculation; the calculation formula is y=a*(1+k 3 ) n , where a is the maximum area load in the planning base year, and n is the area The time required to reach saturation, k 3 is the average value of recent load growth in mature areas.
3、参数设定。3. Parameter setting.
(1)远景负荷预测指标体系单位地块的负荷指标根据政府出台的标准文件《城市电力规划规范GB/T 59023-2014》,城市用电负荷/负荷密度指标/规划单位建设用地负荷指标章节中的内容,针对各类用地的负荷指标范围给按从小到大的顺序给定5个初始值。(1) The load index of the unit plot of the long-term load forecasting index system is based on the standard document "Urban Power Planning GB/T 59023-2014" issued by the government, in the chapters of urban electricity load/load density index/planning unit construction land load index For the content of the load index range of various land uses, 5 initial values are given in order from small to large.
当采用建设用地负荷密度法进行负荷预测时,建设用地负荷指标如表3.2所示。When using the construction land load density method for load forecasting, the construction land load indicators are shown in Table 3.2.
表3.2:规划单位建设用地负荷指标Table 3.2: Load indicators of construction land in planning units
超出表中建设用地以外的其他各类建设用地的规划单位建设用地负荷指标的选取,可根据所在城市的具体情况确定。The selection of construction land load indicators for other types of construction land other than the construction land in the table can be determined according to the specific conditions of the city where it is located.
当采用单位建筑面积负荷密度指标法时,建筑面积负荷指标如表3.3所示。When the unit building area load density index method is adopted, the building area load index is shown in Table 3.3.
表3.3:规划单位建筑面积负荷指标Table 3.3: Planning Unit Floor Area Load Indicators
特殊用地及规划预留的发展备用地负荷密度指标的选取,可结合当地实际情况和规划供能要求确定,因地制宜确定。The selection of load density indicators for special land use and planned development reserve land can be determined in combination with local actual conditions and planned energy supply requirements, and determined according to local conditions.
当涉及煤改电区域时,建议根据当地的实际情况适当提高指标取值标准。When it comes to coal-to-electricity areas, it is recommended to appropriately increase the index value standard according to the actual local conditions.
(2)单位地块饱和负荷的计算方法:单位地块饱和负荷取该地块的大用户预测值与空间负荷预测值的较大值。(2) Calculation method of saturated load per unit plot: the saturated load per unit plot is taken as the larger value of the large user prediction value and the space load prediction value of the plot.
(3)远景负荷预测计算方法:供电单元/供电网格所属单位地块饱和负荷值累加*同时率。新型区域同时率按当地产业典型值给定;老城区同时率取现有产业间同时率。(同时率默认值为0.8,允许用户对地块进行单个修改或者批量修改。除去发展成熟区域其它都属于新型区域,当前方法适用于有土地规划图的地区)。(3) Calculation method of long-term load forecasting: accumulation of saturated load value of power supply unit/unit plot of power supply grid*simultaneity rate. The simultaneity rate of the new area is given according to the typical value of the local industry; the simultaneity rate of the old urban area is the simultaneity rate of the existing industries. (At the same time, the default value is 0.8, which allows users to modify the plots individually or in batches. Except for mature areas, the rest are new types of areas. The current method is applicable to areas with land planning maps).
4、预测结果与展示。4. Prediction results and display.
预测结果曲线展示界面可根据用户的权限进行划分,提供表格与曲线两种展示类型。范围大小参考表3.4。The prediction result curve display interface can be divided according to the user's authority, and two display types are provided: table and curve. Refer to Table 3.4 for range size.
表3.4:用户权限对应的展示范围Table 3.4: Display scope corresponding to user permissions
地图界面采用类似热力图的样式以2D形式展现。The map interface is displayed in 2D in a style similar to a heat map.
支持单个供电网格或供电单元以表格与曲线两种方式展示预测结果,在GIS地图上展示单个网格或单元的预测结果值,可以圈选区域展示该区域的负荷预测值。Support a single power supply grid or power supply unit to display the forecast results in two ways: table and curve, and display the forecast result value of a single grid or unit on the GIS map, and you can circle the area to display the load forecast value of the area.
(二)近中期负荷预测(2) Near and mid-term load forecasting
近中期负荷预测功能主要分为:电网基础数据收集、历史数据计算、负荷预测方法选择、预测结果与展示。具体如下所示。The functions of near and mid-term load forecasting are mainly divided into: grid basic data collection, historical data calculation, load forecasting method selection, forecasting results and display. The details are as follows.
1、电网基础数据收集。1. Grid basic data collection.
主要包括:单位地块内的配变(供电单元/供电网格内的配变及线路最大负荷信息的同时还需取它对应的时刻)、线路出线开关8760点负荷数据。区域范围内的人口、GDP、行业用电(包括:农林牧渔业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业,批发和零售业,住宿和餐饮业,金融业,房地产业,租赁和商务服务业,公共服务及管理组织,其他)、产业用电(包括:第一产业、第二产业、第三产业、城镇居民用电、农村居民用电)等。电网类设备归属可按照单位地块/供电单元/供电网格属性进行分类筛选和汇总操作。It mainly includes: the distribution transformer in the unit plot (the distribution transformer in the power supply unit/power supply grid and the maximum load information of the line need to be obtained at the same time as its corresponding time), and the load data of 8760 points of the line outlet switch. Regional population, GDP, electricity consumption by industry (including: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, transportation, warehousing and postal industry, information transmission, software and information technology service industry, wholesale and retail industry, accommodation and catering industry, financial industry industry, real estate industry, leasing and business service industry, public service and management organization, others), industrial electricity consumption (including: primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, electricity consumption for urban residents, electricity consumption for rural residents), etc. The attribution of power grid equipment can be classified, filtered and aggregated according to the attributes of the unit plot/power supply unit/power supply grid.
2、历史数据计算。2. Historical data calculation.
相关计算方法包括:基于饱和年“自上而下”比例分摊法、基于配变容量“自上而下”比例分摊法、基于线路负荷“自下而上”累加法、基于配变负荷“自下而上”累加法。具体如下所述。Relevant calculation methods include: "top-down" proportional apportionment method based on saturated years, "top-down" proportional apportionment method based on distribution transformer capacity, "bottom-up" accumulation method based on line load, and "automatic distribution method" based on distribution transformer load. Bottom-up” cumulative approach. The details are as follows.
(1)基于饱和年“自上而下”的比例分摊算法:网格现有负荷=区域全社会总负荷×饱和年该网格所占区域总负荷的比例。该算法存在的缺点为,对成熟饱和网格,现状年实际负荷占比较高,但因饱和年该网格负荷在区域内占比可能较低,造成计算出来的现状负荷值占比偏低;对缓慢增长区域,现状年实际负荷占比较低,但因饱和年负荷占比可能较高,造成计算出来的现状负荷值占比偏高。(1) Based on the "top-down" proportional allocation algorithm in the saturation year: the existing load of the grid = the total load of the whole society in the region × the ratio of the grid's total regional load in the saturation year. The disadvantage of this algorithm is that for a mature saturated grid, the actual load ratio in the current year is relatively high, but the proportion of the grid load in the area may be low in the saturated year, resulting in a low proportion of the calculated current load value; For slow-growing regions, the proportion of actual load in the current year is relatively low, but the proportion of load in the saturated year may be relatively high, resulting in a relatively high proportion of the calculated current load value.
(2)基于配变容量“自上而下”比例分摊法:网格现有负荷=区域全社会总负荷×该网格现状配变容量所占区域总配变容量的比例。该算法存在的缺点为,由于配变的负载率不同,该方法可能存在部分误差。(2) Based on the "top-down" proportional allocation method of distribution transformer capacity: the existing load of the grid = the total load of the whole society in the region × the ratio of the current distribution transformer capacity of the grid to the total distribution transformer capacity of the region. The disadvantage of this algorithm is that due to the different load rates of distribution transformers, this method may have some errors.
(3)基于线路负荷“自下而上”累加法:所属该供电单元或供电网格的所有10千伏线路8760点数据叠加后取最大值;需叠加35kV及以上直供负荷、分布式电源数据;计算公式:区域全社会负荷=区域10kV网供线路负荷+10kV专线负荷+35kV及以上直供负荷+10kV并网电源出力+低压并网的电源出力+自发自用厂用电。(设备、线路、供电单元、网格的)网供电量直接累加,下载功率与上送功率分别计算并存储。(3) "Bottom-up" accumulation method based on line load: the maximum value is obtained after superimposition of 8,760 data points of all 10 kV lines belonging to the power supply unit or power grid; it is necessary to superimpose 35kV and above direct-supply loads and distributed power sources Data; calculation formula: Regional social load = regional 10kV network power supply line load + 10kV dedicated line load + 35kV and above direct supply load + 10kV grid-connected power supply output + low-voltage grid-connected power supply output + self-generated and self-consumed factory power. (equipment, line, power supply unit, grid) network power supply is directly accumulated, and the download power and upload power are calculated and stored separately.
其中,每条10千伏线路需要加上属性标签,确认其所属的供电网格或供电单元。通过线路配变容量的分布,确定其归属关系(如果线路有跨供电单元或供电网格时,哪边占比大就属于哪边)。Among them, each 10 kV line needs to add an attribute label to confirm the power supply grid or power supply unit to which it belongs. Through the distribution of line distribution transformer capacity, determine its ownership relationship (if the line crosses power supply units or power supply grids, whichever side has the largest proportion belongs to which side).
(4)基于配变“自下而上”累加法:所属该供电单元或供电网格的配变8760点数据叠加后取最大值,8760点数据存储;需叠加35kV及以上供电大用户、分布式电源数据。(设备、线路、供电单元、网格的)网供电量直接累加,下载功率与上送功率分别计算并存储。(4) Based on the “bottom-up” accumulative method of the distribution transformer: the distribution transformer belonging to the power supply unit or power supply grid has 8,760 points of data superimposed to take the maximum value, and the 8,760 points of data are stored; it is necessary to superimpose 35kV and above power supply large users, distribution format power data. (equipment, line, power supply unit, grid) network power supply is directly accumulated, and the download power and upload power are calculated and stored separately.
3、负荷预测方法选择。3. Selection of load forecasting method.
(1)选择主流计算方法的一种或多种求平均值,包括趋势外推法(S曲线、平均增长率、二元回归、三元回归、指数增长)、产值单耗、弹性系数、产业用电法、行业用电法、最大负荷利用小时数法等。(1) Choose one or more of the mainstream calculation methods for averaging, including trend extrapolation (S-curve, average growth rate, binary regression, ternary regression, exponential growth), unit consumption of output value, elastic coefficient, industry Electricity consumption method, industrial electricity consumption method, maximum load utilization hours method, etc.
当一种方法对某种预测失效或数据确实时,可不选择该方法。不同的负荷预测方法适用场景存在差异,具体如表3.5所示。When a method is invalid for a certain prediction or the data is reliable, this method can not be selected. Different load forecasting methods are applicable to different scenarios, as shown in Table 3.5.
表3.5:负荷预测算法模型与场景的对应关系Table 3.5: Correspondence between load forecasting algorithm models and scenarios
2)混合负荷预测法:由于主流算法都存在各自的优点和缺点,建议可根据各种预测结果,给定权重后累加得到设备或区域的负荷预测结果,并进行图形展示。多曲线方法权重总和为100%,各方法权重的比例由规划人员自行设定。2) Mixed load forecasting method: Since the mainstream algorithms have their own advantages and disadvantages, it is suggested that the load forecasting results of equipment or areas can be obtained by accumulating according to various forecasting results and given weights, and displayed graphically. The sum of the weights of multi-curve methods is 100%, and the weight ratio of each method is set by the planner.
4、预测结果与展示。4. Prediction results and display.
可参照上述远景负荷预测中的预测结果与展示部分。You can refer to the forecast results and display part in the above-mentioned long-term load forecast.
四、变电站定容选址4. Site selection for fixed capacity of substation
(一)变电站定容(1) Constant capacity of substation
1、采集规划区域的现状年、规划目标年、远景年负荷,数据来源于负荷预测结果。1. Collect the current year, planning target year, and future year load of the planning area, and the data comes from the load forecast results.
2、参考《配电网规划设计技术导则》规划区域负荷增速,设定容载比取值范围,如表4.1所示。2. Refer to the "Technical Guidelines for Distribution Network Planning and Design" to plan the regional load growth rate, and set the value range of the capacity-load ratio, as shown in Table 4.1.
表4.1:110kV~35kV电网容载比选择范围Table 4.1: 110kV~35kV grid capacity-load ratio selection range
3、获取现有容量数据,计算新增容量上下限3. Obtain existing capacity data and calculate the upper and lower limits of new capacity
新增容量=规划年的网供负荷*容载比-现有容量。Newly added capacity = grid supply load in the planning year * capacity-to-load ratio - existing capacity.
4、设置可选项,选择先布点还是先扩建(对于快速增长区域、成熟饱和区域以新增布点为主(布点难或收益快);对于负荷缓慢增长初期、投资效益长期难以回收的区域,在可以满足需求的条件下,以主变扩建为主)。4. Set optional options, choose to deploy first or expand first (for fast-growing areas and mature saturated areas, new deployment is the main method (difficult to deploy or quick returns); for areas with slow-growing loads in the early stages and long-term investment returns that are difficult to recover, in the Under the condition that the demand can be met, the expansion of the main transformer should be the main focus).
5、确定变电站数量与容量,详细参照表4.2设置可选项。5. Determine the number and capacity of substations, and refer to Table 4.2 for details on setting options.
表4.2:不同供电区域变电站最终容量配置推荐表Table 4.2: Recommendation table for final capacity configuration of substations in different power supply areas
表4.2中,主变低压侧为10kV。对于负荷确定的供电区域,可适当采用小容量变压器。A、B类区域中31.5MVA变压器(35kV)适用于电源来自220kV变电站的情况。In Table 4.2, the low voltage side of the main transformer is 10kV. For the power supply area with a certain load, a small-capacity transformer can be used appropriately. 31.5MVA transformers (35kV) in Class A and B areas are suitable for the situation where the power source comes from a 220kV substation.
(二)变电站选址(2) Substation site selection
1、最优站址的选择方法(有布点区域),如图2所示。1. The selection method of the optimal station site (there are dotted areas), as shown in Figure 2.
1)通过“负荷矩”,计算规划区域内变电站10千伏最大供电半径,确定已有变电站的最大供电范围,新建变电站布点应该在该范围以外,随着负荷增长,该范围会逐渐缩小。1) Calculate the maximum 10 kV power supply radius of the substation in the planning area through the "load moment", and determine the maximum power supply range of the existing substation. The layout of the new substation should be outside this range. As the load increases, the range will gradually shrink.
2)排除不可建设变电站控规用地类型,包括:湖泊、道路、基本农田、生态保护区等。2) Exclude types of land that cannot be used for construction of substations, including: lakes, roads, basic farmland, ecological protection areas, etc.
3)剔除不可建设变电站区域后,进而缩小变电站最优选址范围,结合边界识别,选择选址范围的几何中心点。自动给出可行的布点区域或最优布点建议,最后人工干预决定选址。3) After eliminating the areas where substations cannot be built, the optimal location range of substations is narrowed down, and the geometric center point of the location range is selected in combination with boundary identification. Feasible layout areas or optimal layout suggestions are automatically given, and finally manual intervention determines the site selection.
2、最优站址的选择方法(无布点的发展起步区域),如图3所示。2. The selection method of the optimal station site (starting area of development without distribution), as shown in Figure 3.
对于尚没有变电站的发展起步区域,以上方法不适用。可将现状负荷密度高于某一值的区域做拓扑识别取中心点a,所有单位地块的区域做拓扑识别取中心点b,取a、b的连线的中心作为最优布点建议(兼顾近远期负荷发展),最后人工干预决定选址。The above methods are not applicable to the initial development areas without substations. The area where the current load density is higher than a certain value can be used for topology identification to take the center point a, and the area for all unit plots can be used for topological identification to take the center point b, and the center of the line connecting a and b can be taken as the optimal point layout suggestion (taking into account Short-term and long-term load development), and finally manual intervention to determine the site selection.
五、35kV及以上电网分析Five, 35kV and above power grid analysis
(一)电网统计(1) Grid statistics
对电网设备类型、年份、规划性质等进行统计,根据统计结果查看相关信息。例如:对于线路,统计信息包括线路名称、投运时间、起始电站、终止电站等。Make statistics on the type, year, planning nature, etc. of power grid equipment, and view relevant information according to the statistical results. For example: for a line, the statistical information includes line name, commissioning time, starting power station, ending power station, etc.
(二)电网拓扑分析(2) Grid topology analysis
对35kV及以上网架进行分析,找出网架拓扑连接关系和带电范围,为典型接线方式识别做数据准备,给出详细分析结果。Analyze the 35kV and above grids to find out the topological connection relationship and live range of the grids, prepare data for the identification of typical wiring methods, and give detailed analysis results.
(三)接线模式分析(3) Analysis of wiring mode
对35kV及以上网架接线模式进行识别,找出辐射、链式、环式、T接、π接等典型接线方式,给出详细分析结果。Identify the wiring modes of 35kV and above grids, find out typical wiring modes such as radiation, chain, ring, T-connection, and π-connection, and give detailed analysis results.
(四)辅助电气计算(4) Auxiliary electrical calculation
辅助电气计算包含但不限于以下电气计算:(1)潮流计算;(2)短路计算;(3)N-1通过率计算。Auxiliary electrical calculations include but are not limited to the following electrical calculations: (1) Power flow calculation; (2) Short circuit calculation; (3) N-1 pass rate calculation.
六、10kV及以上电网分析Six, 10kV and above power grid analysis
(一)电网统计(1) Grid statistics
对电网设备类型、年份、规划性质等进行统计,根据统计结果查看相关信息。例如:对于线路,统计信息包括线路名称、投运时间、类型(架空、电缆)、起始电站、终止电站等。Make statistics on the type, year, planning nature, etc. of power grid equipment, and view relevant information according to the statistical results. For example: for lines, statistical information includes line name, commissioning time, type (overhead, cable), starting power station, terminating power station, etc.
(二)电网拓扑分析(2) Grid topology analysis
对10(20、6)kV网架进行拓扑分析,找出网架拓扑连接关系和带电范围,为典型接线方式识别、主干分析、最长路径分析、拓扑岛分析、分段联络分析做数据准备,并给出详细分析结果。Perform topology analysis on 10 (20, 6) kV grids, find out the topological connection relationship and live range of grids, and prepare data for typical wiring mode identification, backbone analysis, longest path analysis, topological island analysis, and segmental contact analysis , and give detailed analysis results.
(三)接线模式分析(3) Analysis of wiring mode
对10(20、6)kV网架进行接线模式识别,找出架空网、电缆网、混合网架的典型接线方式,给出详细分析结果。Conduct wiring mode recognition on 10 (20, 6) kV grids, find out the typical wiring modes of overhead grids, cable networks, and hybrid grids, and give detailed analysis results.
(四)辅助电气计算(4) Auxiliary electrical calculation
辅助电气计算包含但不限于以下电气计算:(1)短路计算;(2)N-1通过率计算。Auxiliary electrical calculations include but are not limited to the following electrical calculations: (1) Short circuit calculation; (2) N-1 pass rate calculation.
(五)电网评估(5) Grid assessment
(1)地市、县(区)评价指标体系(1) City, county (district) evaluation index system
包括六个方面,包括综合指标、电网结构指标、设备水平指标、供电能力指标、智能化及绿色发展指标和电网效益指标。It includes six aspects, including comprehensive indicators, grid structure indicators, equipment level indicators, power supply capacity indicators, intelligent and green development indicators, and grid efficiency indicators.
其中,综合指标包括户均停电时间、综合电压合格率和10kV及以下综合线损率。电网结构指标包括10kV线路平均供电半径、10kV架空线路平均分段数、10kV线路联络率、10kV线路站间联络率、10kV线路N-1通过率和10kV线路标准化接线占比。设备水平指标包括10kV在运设备平均投运年限、10kV线路电缆化率、10kV架空线路绝缘化率和10kV高损耗配电变压器占比。供电能力指标包括10kV线路最大负载率平均值、10kV重载线路占比、10kV配电变压器最大负载率平均值、10kV重载配电变压器占比、10kV线路装接容量和10kV线路不安全负荷。智能化及绿色发展指标包括配电自动化覆盖率、“三遥”终端占比、配电变压器信息采集率、分布式电源渗透率和分布式电源消纳率。电网效益指标包括单位投资增供负荷和单位投资增售电量。Among them, the comprehensive indicators include the average power outage time per household, the comprehensive voltage qualification rate and the comprehensive line loss rate of 10kV and below. Grid structure indicators include the average power supply radius of 10kV lines, the average number of segments of 10kV overhead lines, the connection rate of 10kV lines, the connection rate between stations of 10kV lines, the N-1 pass rate of 10kV lines and the proportion of standardized wiring of 10kV lines. The equipment level indicators include the average service life of 10kV equipment in operation, the cable conversion rate of 10kV lines, the insulation rate of 10kV overhead lines, and the proportion of 10kV high-loss distribution transformers. Power supply capacity indicators include the average maximum load rate of 10kV lines, the proportion of 10kV heavy-duty lines, the average maximum load rate of 10kV distribution transformers, the proportion of 10kV heavy-duty distribution transformers, the installation capacity of 10kV lines and the unsafe load of 10kV lines. Intelligent and green development indicators include the coverage rate of distribution automation, the proportion of "three remote" terminals, the information collection rate of distribution transformers, the penetration rate of distributed power and the consumption rate of distributed power. Power grid efficiency indicators include unit investment to increase supply load and unit investment to increase sales of electricity.
(2)配电网供电网格评价指标体系(2) Evaluation index system of distribution network power supply grid
也包括六个方面,包括综合指标、电网结构指标、设备水平指标、供电能力指标、智能化及绿色发展指标和电网效益指标。It also includes six aspects, including comprehensive indicators, grid structure indicators, equipment level indicators, power supply capacity indicators, intelligent and green development indicators, and grid efficiency indicators.
其中,综合指标包括户均停电时间。电网结构指标包括10kV线路平均供电半径和10kV线路N-1通过率。设备水平指标包括10kV线路电缆化率和10kV架空线路绝缘化率。供电能力指标包括10kV重载线路占比、10kV重载配电变压器占比、10kV线路装接容量和10kV线路不安全负荷。智能化及绿色发展指标包括配电自动化覆盖率和配电变压器信息采集率。电网效益指标包括单位投资增供负荷。Among them, the comprehensive index includes the average power outage time per household. Grid structure indicators include the average power supply radius of 10kV lines and the N-1 pass rate of 10kV lines. Equipment level indicators include 10kV line cable rate and 10kV overhead line insulation rate. Power supply capacity indicators include the proportion of 10kV heavy-duty lines, the proportion of 10kV heavy-duty distribution transformers, the installation capacity of 10kV lines and the unsafe load of 10kV lines. Intelligent and green development indicators include distribution automation coverage and distribution transformer information collection rate. Power grid efficiency indicators include unit investment to increase supply load.
本实施例整合电力相关信息系统数据,对基于网格化的主动配电网规划辅助计算,形成一套技术先进、功能全面并且实用的辅助工具,不仅能够满足各级配电网规划需求,而且还能够推广到六地市城区等A、B类地区使用,为电网规划决策提供数据支持与科学依据,实现精准规划,辅助相关技术人员进行决策,达到提升工作效率的目的。This embodiment integrates power-related information system data to form a set of advanced, comprehensive and practical auxiliary tools for grid-based active distribution network planning auxiliary calculations, which can not only meet the needs of distribution network planning at all levels, but also It can also be extended to Class A and B areas such as the urban areas of six cities, providing data support and scientific basis for grid planning decisions, achieving precise planning, assisting relevant technical personnel in decision-making, and achieving the goal of improving work efficiency.
实施例三Embodiment Three
本实施例是对应上述实施例的一种计算机可读存储介质,其上存储有计算机程序,所述程序被处理器执行时实现如下步骤:This embodiment is a computer-readable storage medium corresponding to the above-mentioned embodiments, on which a computer program is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, the following steps are implemented:
将预设的规划区域从小到大依次划分单元地块、供电单元和供电网格;Divide the preset planning area into unit plots, power supply units and power supply grids in order from small to large;
对所述规划区域进行负荷预测,得到负荷预测结果;performing load forecasting on the planning area to obtain a load forecasting result;
根据所述负荷预测结果,进行变电站的定容与选址;According to the load forecasting results, the constant capacity and site selection of substations are carried out;
对所述规划区域进行电网分析和电网评估。Perform grid analysis and grid assessment for the planned area.
进一步地,所述将预设的规划区域从小到大依次划分单元地块、供电单元和供电网格;具体为:Further, the preset planning area is divided into unit plots, power supply units and power supply grids in order from small to large; specifically:
根据县级行政区对应的区域,确定规划区域;Determine the planning area according to the area corresponding to the county-level administrative region;
对所述规划区域进行网格化划分,得到一个以上的供电网格;performing grid division on the planning area to obtain more than one power supply grid;
分别对各供电网格进行划分,得到一个以上的供电单元;Separately divide each power supply grid to obtain more than one power supply unit;
分别对各供电单元进行划分,得到一个以上的单位地块。Each power supply unit is divided separately to obtain more than one unit plot.
进一步地,所述对所述规划区域进行负荷预测,得到负荷预测结果具体为:Further, the load forecasting of the planning area is carried out, and the load forecasting result obtained is specifically:
对所述规划区域进行远景负荷预测,得到所述规划区域的远景年负荷;Forecasting the future load of the planning area to obtain the future annual load of the planning area;
对所述规划区域进行近中期负荷预测,得到所述规划区域的规划目标年负荷以及各供电网格的现状年负荷。The near-medium-term load forecast is performed on the planning area to obtain the planning target annual load of the planning area and the current annual load of each power supply grid.
进一步地,所述对所述规划区域进行远景负荷预测,得到所述规划区域的远景年负荷具体为:Further, the foresight load forecast of the planning area is carried out, and the foresight annual load of the planning area is specifically:
分别收集各单元地块内的功能用地指标信息,所述功能用地指标信息包括大用户信息、分布式电源信息和多元负荷信息;Separately collect the functional land use index information in each unit plot, the functional land use index information includes large user information, distributed power supply information and multiple load information;
根据所述功能用地指标信息,分别计算各单元地块的饱和年负荷;Calculate the saturated annual load of each unit plot respectively according to the functional land use index information;
根据一单元地块的大用户信息中的历史年最大负荷以及饱和年负荷中的最大值,确定所述一单元地块的饱和负荷值;Determine the saturated load value of the unit plot according to the maximum historical annual load and the maximum value of the saturated annual load in the large user information of the unit plot;
根据供电网格中各单元地块的饱和负荷值以及预设的同时率,计算所述供电网格的远景负荷预测值;According to the saturated load value of each unit plot in the power supply grid and the preset simultaneous rate, calculate the long-term load prediction value of the power supply grid;
根据各供电网格的远景负荷预测值,计算得到所述规划区域的远景年负荷。The future annual load of the planning area is calculated according to the forecasted value of the future load of each power supply grid.
进一步地,所述根据所述功能用地指标信息,分别计算各单元地块的饱和年负荷具体为:Further, according to the functional land use index information, the calculation of the saturated annual load of each unit plot is specifically:
若一单元地块存在对应的土地规划图,则通过空间负荷预测法,计算所述一单元地块的饱和年负荷;If there is a corresponding land planning map for a unit plot, then calculate the saturated annual load of the unit plot through the spatial load prediction method;
若一单元地块不存在对应的土地规划图,且所述一单元地块的类别为特殊用地或水域及其他用地,则根据所述一单元地块内的用户数和预设的单个户数远景平均最高负荷典型值,计算所述一单元地块的饱和年负荷;If there is no corresponding land planning map for a unit plot, and the category of the unit plot is special land or water area and other land, then according to the number of users in the unit plot and the preset number of individual households The typical value of the highest average load in the future, calculate the saturated annual load of the one-unit plot;
若一单元地块不存在对应的土地规划图,且属于成熟发展区域,则通过平均增长率法,计算所述一单元地块的饱和年负荷。If there is no corresponding land planning map for a unit plot and it belongs to a mature development area, the saturated annual load of the unit plot is calculated by the average growth rate method.
进一步地,所述对所述规划区域进行近中期负荷预测,得到所述规划区域的规划目标年负荷以及各供电网格的现状年负荷。Further, the near-medium-term load forecast is performed on the planning area to obtain the planning target annual load of the planning area and the current annual load of each power supply grid.
收集供电网格的现状年和多个历史年的电网基础数据,所述电网基础数据包括各单位地块的配变、线路最大负荷信息及其对应时刻,以及线路出线开关8760点负荷数据;Collect the current year of the power supply grid and the basic data of the power grid in multiple historical years. The basic data of the power grid includes the distribution transformer of each unit plot, the maximum load information of the line and its corresponding time, and the load data of 8760 points of the line outlet switch;
根据现状年的电网基础数据,计算现状年的区域全社会总负荷;According to the basic data of the power grid in the current year, calculate the total load of the whole society in the current year;
根据现状年的区域全社会总负荷,以及一供电网格在饱和年的总负荷占所述现状年的区域全社会总负荷的比例或一供电网格在现状年的配变容量占所述供电区域在现状年的总配变容量的比例,计算所述一供电网格的现状年负荷;According to the total load of the whole society in the current year, and the ratio of the total load of a power supply grid in the saturated year to the total load of the whole society in the current year or the distribution transformer capacity of a power grid in the current year accounts for the power supply in the current year The ratio of the total distribution capacity of the region in the present year, calculates the present annual load of the power supply grid;
根据各供电网格的现状年负荷,计算所述供电区域的现状年负荷;Calculate the current annual load of the power supply area according to the current annual load of each power supply grid;
分别根据各历史年的电网基础数据,计算各历史年的区域全社会总负荷;According to the basic data of the power grid in each historical year, calculate the total load of the whole society in each historical year;
根据现状年和各历史年的区域全社会总负荷,通过近中期负荷预测法,计算所述规划区域的规划目标年负荷,所述近中期负荷预测法包括年均增长率法、二元回归法、三元回归法、指数增长法、S曲线模型和大用户法。According to the total load of the whole society in the current year and each historical year, the planned target annual load of the planning area is calculated through the near-medium-term load forecasting method, and the near-medium-term load forecasting method includes the average annual growth rate method and the binary regression method , ternary regression method, exponential growth method, S-curve model and large user method.
进一步地,进行变电站的定容具体为Further, the constant capacity of the substation is specifically
根据预设的规划区域负荷增速,设定容载比取值范围;According to the preset planning area load growth rate, set the value range of capacity-load ratio;
根据所述规划区域的规划目标年负荷、容载比取值范围以及现有容量数据,计算新增容量范围;Calculate the new capacity range according to the planning target annual load, capacity-load ratio value range and existing capacity data of the planning area;
设定定容策略,所述定容策略为先布点或先扩建;Set the strategy of constant capacity, the strategy of constant capacity is to deploy first or expand first;
根据所述定容策略以及电压等级和供电区域类型,确定变电站数量与容量。Determine the number and capacity of substations according to the capacity constant strategy, voltage level and power supply area type.
进一步地,进行变电站的选址具体为:Further, the site selection of the substation is specifically as follows:
判断规划区域内是否已存在变电站;Determine whether there is a substation in the planning area;
若已存在,则确定所述规划区域内的已有变电站的最大供电范围;If it already exists, determine the maximum power supply range of existing substations in the planning area;
在规划区域内剔除所述最大供电范围的区域以及预设的不可建设变电站的区域,确定变电站的选址范围;Eliminate the areas with the largest power supply range and the preset areas where substations cannot be built in the planning area, and determine the site selection range of substations;
将所述选址范围的几何中心点作为可行的布点区域;Taking the geometric center point of the site selection range as a feasible distribution area;
若不存在,则根据所述规划区域内各供电网格的现状年负荷和面积,计算各供电网格的现状负荷密度;If it does not exist, then calculate the current load density of each power supply grid according to the current annual load and area of each power supply grid in the planning area;
对现状负荷密度高于预设值的供电网格进行拓扑识别,得到第一中心点;Perform topology identification on the power supply grid whose current load density is higher than the preset value, and obtain the first central point;
对规划区域内的所有供电网格进行拓扑识别,得到第二中心点;Perform topology identification on all power supply grids in the planning area to obtain the second central point;
将所述第一中心点和第二中心点的连线中点作为可行的布点区域;Taking the midpoint of the connection line between the first center point and the second center point as a feasible distribution area;
根据所述可行的布点区域以及所述规划区域的远景年负荷,确定新建变电站地址。According to the feasible distribution area and the prospective annual load of the planning area, the address of the new substation is determined.
进一步地,所述对所述规划区域进行电网分析和电网评估具体为:Further, the performing grid analysis and grid evaluation on the planning area is specifically:
对所述规划区域中电压等级为35kV及以上的电网进行电网统计、电网拓扑分析、接线模式分析和辅助电气计算;Conduct grid statistics, grid topology analysis, wiring mode analysis, and auxiliary electrical calculations for grids with a voltage level of 35kV and above in the planning area;
对所述规划区域中电压等级为10kV及以下的电网进行电网统计、电网拓扑分析、接线模式分析、辅助电气计算和电网评估。Conduct grid statistics, grid topology analysis, wiring mode analysis, auxiliary electrical calculation and grid evaluation for grids with a voltage level of 10kV and below in the planning area.
综上所述,本发明提供的一种基于网格化的主动配电网规划方法及存储介质,可实现主动配电网空间负荷预测,实现根据空间负荷预测结果确定目标年及中间年待建变电站的位置及其容量,实现配电网的多维度统计分析、拓扑分析及接线分析,并且完成进一步的电气计算分析。基于以上数据综合分析,为配电网精准规划高效投资提供科学依据和有效支撑。本发明可为电网规划决策提供数据支持与科学依据,实现精准规划,辅助相关技术人员进行决策,达到提升工作效率的目的。In summary, the grid-based active distribution network planning method and storage medium provided by the present invention can realize the spatial load prediction of the active distribution network, and realize the determination of the target year and the intermediate year to be built according to the spatial load prediction results. The location and capacity of the substation realize the multi-dimensional statistical analysis, topology analysis and wiring analysis of the distribution network, and complete further electrical calculation and analysis. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the above data, it provides a scientific basis and effective support for the precise planning and efficient investment of the distribution network. The invention can provide data support and scientific basis for grid planning decision-making, realize accurate planning, assist relevant technical personnel to make decisions, and achieve the purpose of improving work efficiency.
以上所述仅为本发明的实施例,并非因此限制本发明的专利范围,凡是利用本发明说明书及附图内容所作的等同变换,或直接或间接运用在相关的技术领域,均同理包括在本发明的专利保护范围内。The above description is only an embodiment of the present invention, and does not limit the patent scope of the present invention. All equivalent transformations made by using the description of the present invention and the contents of the accompanying drawings, or directly or indirectly used in related technical fields, are all included in the same principle. Within the scope of patent protection of the present invention.
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