CN111507626A - Uncertainty-considered economic evaluation method for photovoltaic roof-retired battery energy storage system - Google Patents
Uncertainty-considered economic evaluation method for photovoltaic roof-retired battery energy storage system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及住宅用户的屋顶光伏系统和退役电池储能系统,是一种计及不确定性的光伏 屋顶-退役电池储能系统经济性评估方法,应用于住宅用户屋顶光伏系统和退役电池储能联合 系统的经济性评估。The invention relates to a rooftop photovoltaic system and a retired battery energy storage system for residential users, and is a photovoltaic roof-retirement battery energy storage system economic evaluation method considering uncertainty, which is applied to the residential user rooftop photovoltaic system and retired battery energy storage system Economic evaluation of combined systems.
背景技术Background technique
随着屋顶光伏的大力推广与普及和大量的电动汽车动力电池进入可重复使用的电池市 场,可重复使用的电池可能是家用储能系统的实用替代品。但是,由于太阳能负载的不确定 性和政策的多样性,增加了屋顶光伏系统和退役电池储能联合系统经济性评估的难度。With the vigorous promotion and popularization of rooftop photovoltaics and the entry of a large number of electric vehicle power batteries into the reusable battery market, reusable batteries may be a practical alternative to home energy storage systems. However, due to the uncertainty of solar load and the diversity of policies, it is more difficult to evaluate the economics of the combined system of rooftop photovoltaic systems and decommissioned battery energy storage.
大多数研究没有深入分析住宅用户的用电行为和太阳辐照之间的相关性对光-储经济性 的影响,并且退役电池的梯次利用并未包括在内。并且,太阳辐照和住宅负荷具有高度不确 定性,直接影响屋顶光伏系统与退役电池储能系统的经济评估结果,且无法响应电力市场政 策的变化。采用去噪变分自编码器构建光伏与用电行为不确定性模型,并以太阳辐照与用电 行为的相关性刻画居民类型,结合实际电价政策,开展光伏屋顶和退役电池储能联合系统的 经济性评估。生成的用电行为和光伏场景降低了居民消费者的屋顶光伏与退役电池储能系统 投资风险。并且,相关性分析增强了推广光伏屋顶和退役电池储能联合系统的针对性,避免 了退役电池处理不当而造成的资源浪费和环境污染。Most studies did not deeply analyze the impact of the correlation between residential users' electricity consumption behavior and solar irradiation on the solar-storage economy, and the cascade utilization of retired batteries was not included. In addition, solar irradiation and residential loads are highly uncertain, which directly affect the economic evaluation results of rooftop photovoltaic systems and decommissioned battery energy storage systems, and cannot respond to changes in electricity market policies. Denoising variational autoencoder is used to build an uncertainty model of photovoltaic and electricity consumption behavior, and the type of residents is characterized by the correlation between solar irradiation and electricity consumption behavior. Combined with the actual electricity price policy, a combined photovoltaic roof and retired battery energy storage system is developed. economic assessment. The generated electricity consumption behavior and photovoltaic scenarios reduce the investment risk of residential consumers' rooftop photovoltaic and decommissioned battery energy storage systems. In addition, the correlation analysis enhances the pertinence of promoting the combined system of photovoltaic roof and decommissioned battery energy storage, and avoids resource waste and environmental pollution caused by improper disposal of decommissioned batteries.
发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
本发明的目的是,克服现有住宅用户光伏屋顶和退役电池储能联合系统经济性评估的难 点,提供一种科学合理,适用性强,效果佳,能够降低用户投资风险,有利于可持续发展的 计及不确定性的光伏屋顶-退役电池储能系统经济性评估方法。The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the difficulty of economic evaluation of the existing combined photovoltaic roof and decommissioned battery energy storage system for residential users, and to provide a scientific and reasonable method with strong applicability and good effect, which can reduce the investment risk of users and is conducive to sustainable development. A method for evaluating the economics of photovoltaic rooftop-decommissioned battery energy storage systems accounting for uncertainty.
实现本发明目的采用的技术方案是,一种计及不确定性的光伏屋顶-退役电池储能系统经 济性评估方法,其特征是,它包括以下步骤:The technical scheme adopted to realize the object of the present invention is, a photovoltaic roof-retirement battery energy storage system economic evaluation method taking into account uncertainty, is characterized in that, it comprises the following steps:
1)光伏屋顶用户增装退役电池储能系统的必要性分析;1) The necessity of installing decommissioned battery energy storage systems for photovoltaic rooftop users;
根据式(1)~式(3)分别计算光伏出力、光伏出力与用户用电行为的相关性和各个用 户的光伏未消纳率,对居民用户进行编号;According to equations (1) to (3), the photovoltaic output, the correlation between photovoltaic output and users' electricity consumption behavior, and the photovoltaic non-consumption rate of each user are calculated respectively, and the residential users are numbered;
其中:G为照射到光伏面板上的太阳的辐射强度值;GSTC为标准辐射强度值;为屋顶 光伏的容量值;xload为用电负荷值;xSR为太阳辐照值;为用电负荷的标准差;为太阳 辐照的标准差;为光伏总出力值;为居民用户没有消纳的光伏出力;PPV为光伏出力 值;ρ为光伏出力与用户用电行为的相关性;cov为协方差;Runabsorbed为用户的光伏未消纳率;Among them: G is the radiation intensity value of the sun shining on the photovoltaic panel; G STC is the standard radiation intensity value; is the capacity value of rooftop photovoltaic; x load is the electricity load value; x SR is the solar irradiation value; is the standard deviation of the electricity load; is the standard deviation of solar irradiance; is the total output value of photovoltaic; is the photovoltaic output that is not absorbed by residential users; P PV is the photovoltaic output value; ρ is the correlation between photovoltaic output and users’ electricity consumption behavior; cov is the covariance; R unabsorbed is the photovoltaic unabsorbed rate of users;
2)建立居民用电负荷和屋顶光伏出力的不确定模型步骤:2) Steps to establish the uncertainty model of residential electricity load and rooftop photovoltaic output:
(a)根据式(4)~式(5)建立去噪变分自编码器模型;(a) Establish a denoising variational autoencoder model according to equations (4) to (5);
式中:DKL为Kullback–Leibler散度;u为观测数据值;a为潜变量值;p为概率分布;q为近似分布;E为期望;pμ(u|a)为生成网络;qε(a|u)为识别网络;log pμ(u)为对数似然 函数的下界;为去噪变分下界;μ为生成神经网络权重值;ε为识别神经网络权重值;where D KL is the Kullback–Leibler divergence; u is the observed data value; a is the latent variable value; p is the probability distribution; q is the approximate distribution; E is the expectation; p μ (u|a) is the generative network; q ε (a|u) is the recognition network; log p μ (u) is the lower bound of the log-likelihood function; is the denoising variational lower bound; μ is the weight value of the generating neural network; ε is the weight value of the recognition neural network;
(b)将居民用户的太阳辐照数据与用电负荷数据重塑为24×24元组;(b) Reshape the solar radiation data and electricity load data of residential users into 24×24 tuples;
(c)截取生成网络,输入n个服从标准正态分布的潜变量,生成n组与原始数据概率分 布相似的场景;(c) Intercept the generation network, input n latent variables that obey the standard normal distribution, and generate n groups of scenarios similar to the original data probability distribution;
(d)采用K-Means聚类得到潜在的居民用电负荷与光伏发电数据;(d) Using K-Means clustering to obtain potential residential electricity load and photovoltaic power generation data;
3)建立屋顶光伏与退役电池储能系统的经济性分析模型步骤:3) Steps to establish an economic analysis model for rooftop photovoltaic and decommissioned battery energy storage systems:
(a)建立退役电池储能系统模型(a) Build a model of a retired battery energy storage system
退役动力电池储能系统容量会随着电池使用次数的增加而衰减:The capacity of retired power battery energy storage system will decay with the increase of battery usage:
λRBESS=a·NCRBESS+b (7)λ RBESS = a·NC RBESS +b (7)
式中,NCRBESS为退役动力电池储能系统的使用循环次数;a为容量系数;b为容量系数; 为退役动力电池储能系统的实际容量;为退役动力电池储能系统的额定容量;NCday为退役电池储能系统的日运行等效完全充放电次数;NCb为放电深度为100%时的退役 电池循环寿命;NCi为第i个循环周期中退役电池在实际运行中的循环寿命,i=1,2,…,N;λRBESS为容量保持率;In the formula, NC RBESS is the number of use cycles of the retired power battery energy storage system; a is the capacity coefficient; b is the capacity coefficient; is the actual capacity of the retired power battery energy storage system; is the rated capacity of the retired power battery energy storage system; NC day is the daily equivalent full charge and discharge times of the retired battery energy storage system; NC b is the cycle life of the retired battery when the depth of discharge is 100%; NC i is the i-th Cycle life of decommissioned batteries in actual operation during the cycle period, i=1,2,...,N; λ RBESS is the capacity retention rate;
(b)建立屋顶光伏系统模型(b) Build a rooftop photovoltaic system model
光伏系统的容量是根据用户的年耗电量与太阳辐照强度等因素确定:The capacity of the photovoltaic system is determined according to the user's annual power consumption and solar radiation intensity and other factors:
式中:为光伏的容量;PAPC为居民用户的年耗电量;ηCR为太阳辐照覆盖率;H为太阳辐照年持续时间;where: is the photovoltaic capacity; P APC is the annual power consumption of residential users; η CR is the solar irradiation coverage rate; H is the annual duration of solar irradiation;
(c)建立屋顶光伏与退役电池储能系统运行模型(c) Establish the operation model of rooftop photovoltaic and decommissioned battery energy storage system
式中:Copt为系统运行成本;πprice为电力价格;πRprice为居民用户向电网售电价格;πPprice为居民用户向电网购电价格;PRPV为屋顶光伏的功率;PRBESS为退役电池储能系统的功率;Pload为用户消耗的电功率;t为时间,t=1,2,…,T;In the formula: C opt is the operating cost of the system; π price is the electricity price; π Rprice is the price of electricity sold by residential users to the grid; π Pprice is the price of electricity purchased by residential users from the grid; P RPV is the power of rooftop photovoltaics; P RBESS is the decommissioning The power of the battery energy storage system; P load is the electric power consumed by the user; t is the time, t=1,2,…,T;
(d)居民用户的净现值(d) Net present value of resident users
用户的净现值为正,从而表明它是有利润的;The user has a positive net present value, thus indicating that it is profitable;
式中:NCFRBESS为增装退役电池储能系统的净现金流量;NCFRPV为安装光伏屋顶的净现金流量; NPV为净现值;NCF为净现金流量;n为年份;φn(n)为未安装光伏与退役电池储能系统用户 的第n年账单;φRPV(n)为只安装光伏系统用户的第n年账单;φPVRB(n)为安装光伏与退役电池 储能联合系统用户的第n年账单;r为市场通货膨胀率;为退役电池储能系统安装成本; 为光伏系统安装成本;OM为光伏维护成本;In the formula: NCF RBESS is the net cash flow of installing and decommissioning battery energy storage systems; NCF RPV is the net cash flow of installing photovoltaic roofs; NPV is the net present value; NCF is the net cash flow; n is the year; φ n (n) is the bill of the nth year for users who have not installed photovoltaic and decommissioned battery energy storage systems; φ RPV (n) is the nth year bill of users who only install photovoltaic systems; φ PVRB (n) is the user who installed photovoltaic and decommissioned battery energy storage systems The nth year bill; r is the market inflation rate; Installation costs for decommissioning battery storage systems; is the installation cost of photovoltaic system; OM is the cost of photovoltaic maintenance;
4)根据步骤1)至步骤3),构建考虑光伏与用户用电行为不确定性的混合整数线性规 划模型,结合现行多电价政策,针对每种类型的居民用户,开展光伏屋顶-退役电池储能系统 的经济性评估。4) According to step 1) to step 3), construct a mixed integer linear programming model that considers the uncertainty of photovoltaic and user power consumption behavior, and combine the current multi-price policy to carry out photovoltaic rooftop-retirement battery storage for each type of residential users. Economic evaluation of energy systems.
本发明的一种计及不确定性的光伏屋顶-退役电池储能系统经济性评估方法,其特点是, 在建立光伏与用电行为不确定性模型时能够避免概率建模,特征提取和概率采样的繁琐步骤, 使生成的场景准确地捕获了用电行为和光伏出力的相关性和概率分布;同时,该经济性评估 模型能够相应电价政策的变化,为居民提供合理的经济性评估结果,规避投资风险。具有方 法科学合理,适用性强,效果佳等优点。解决了现有技术存在的光伏出力与用户用电行为不 确定而造成的光伏屋顶和退役电池储能联合系统的经济性评估困难的问题。The economic evaluation method of photovoltaic roof-retirement battery energy storage system considering uncertainty of the present invention is characterized in that probability modeling, feature extraction and probability modeling can be avoided when establishing photovoltaic and electricity consumption behavior uncertainty models. The tedious steps of sampling enable the generated scene to accurately capture the correlation and probability distribution of electricity consumption behavior and photovoltaic output; at the same time, the economic evaluation model can respond to changes in electricity price policies and provide residents with reasonable economic evaluation results. Avoid investment risks. It has the advantages of scientific and reasonable method, strong applicability and good effect. It solves the problem of difficulty in economic evaluation of the combined system of photovoltaic roof and retired battery energy storage caused by the uncertainty of photovoltaic output and user power consumption behavior in the existing technology.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1本发明的一种计及不确定性的光伏屋顶-退役电池储能系统经济性评估方法流程图;Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for economic evaluation of a photovoltaic roof-retirement battery energy storage system considering uncertainty according to the present invention;
图2为某日的屋顶光伏出力生成场景示例图;Figure 2 is an example diagram of a roof photovoltaic output generation scene on a certain day;
图3为某日的居民电负荷生成场景示例图。FIG. 3 is an example diagram of a residential electric load generation scenario on a certain day.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
本发明实施例的一种计及不确定性的光伏屋顶-退役电池储能系统经济性评估方法,针对 5个典型的居民用户进行经济性评估:(1)太阳辐照与用电行为的相关性为0.0004的用户, 即无相关;(2)太阳辐照与用电行为的相关性为0.2255的用户,即最大正相关;(3)太阳辐 照与用电行为的相关性为-0.2572的用户,即最大负相关;(4)太阳辐照与用电行为的相关性 为-0.1004的用户;(5)太阳辐照与用电行为的相关性为0.1003的用户。An economic evaluation method for a photovoltaic roof-retirement battery energy storage system considering uncertainty according to an embodiment of the present invention performs economic evaluation for five typical residential users: (1) Correlation between solar irradiation and electricity consumption behavior (2) The correlation between solar radiation and electricity consumption is 0.2255, that is, the maximum positive correlation; (3) The correlation between solar radiation and electricity consumption is -0.2572. Users, that is, the maximum negative correlation; (4) users whose correlation between solar radiation and electricity consumption is -0.1004; (5) users whose correlation between solar radiation and electricity consumption is 0.1003.
表1典型居民用户概况Table 1 Profiles of typical residential users
下面以光伏第3资源区中的居民屋顶光伏系统和退役电池储能联合系统为例来说明一种 计及不确定性的光伏屋顶-退役电池储能系统经济性评估方法。The following takes the residential rooftop photovoltaic system and the decommissioned battery energy storage combined system in the third photovoltaic resource area as an example to illustrate an economic evaluation method of photovoltaic rooftop-decommissioned battery energy storage system that takes into account uncertainty.
参考图1~图3,一种计及不确定性的光伏屋顶-退役电池储能系统经济性评估方法,其 特征是,它包括以下步骤:Referring to Figures 1 to 3, a method for evaluating the economics of photovoltaic rooftop-retirement battery energy storage systems considering uncertainty is characterized in that it includes the following steps:
1)光伏屋顶用户增装退役电池储能系统的必要性分析;1) The necessity of installing decommissioned battery energy storage systems for photovoltaic rooftop users;
根据式(1)~式(3)分别计算光伏出力、光伏出力与用户用电行为的相关性和各个用 户的光伏未消纳率,对居民用户进行编号;According to equations (1) to (3), the photovoltaic output, the correlation between photovoltaic output and users' electricity consumption behavior, and the photovoltaic non-consumption rate of each user are calculated respectively, and the residential users are numbered;
其中:G为照射到光伏面板上的太阳的辐射强度值;GSTC为标准辐射强度值;为屋顶 光伏的容量值;xload为用电负荷值;xSR为太阳辐照值;为用电负荷的标准差;为太阳 辐照的标准差;为光伏总出力值;为居民用户没有消纳的光伏出力;PPV为光伏出力 值;ρ为光伏出力与用户用电行为的相关性;cov为协方差;Runabsorbed为用户的光伏未消纳率;Among them: G is the radiation intensity value of the sun shining on the photovoltaic panel; G STC is the standard radiation intensity value; is the capacity value of rooftop photovoltaic; x load is the electricity load value; x SR is the solar irradiation value; is the standard deviation of the electricity load; is the standard deviation of solar irradiance; is the total output value of photovoltaic; is the photovoltaic output that is not absorbed by residential users; P PV is the photovoltaic output value; ρ is the correlation between photovoltaic output and users’ electricity consumption behavior; cov is the covariance; R unabsorbed is the photovoltaic unabsorbed rate of users;
2)建立居民用电负荷和屋顶光伏出力的不确定模型步骤:2) Steps to establish the uncertainty model of residential electricity load and rooftop photovoltaic output:
(a)根据式(4)~式(5)建立去噪变分自编码器模型;(a) Establish a denoising variational autoencoder model according to equations (4) to (5);
式中:DKL为Kullback–Leibler散度;u为观测数据值;a为潜变量值;p为概率分布;q为近似分布;E为期望;pμ(u|a)为生成网络;qε(a|u)为识别网络;log pμ(u)为对数似然 函数的下界;为去噪变分下界;μ为生成神经网络权重值;ε为识别神经网络权重值;where D KL is the Kullback–Leibler divergence; u is the observed data value; a is the latent variable value; p is the probability distribution; q is the approximate distribution; E is the expectation; p μ (u|a) is the generative network; q ε (a|u) is the recognition network; log p μ (u) is the lower bound of the log-likelihood function; is the denoising variational lower bound; μ is the weight value of the generating neural network; ε is the weight value of the recognition neural network;
(b)将居民用户的太阳辐照数据与用电负荷数据重塑为24×24元组;(b) Reshape the solar radiation data and electricity load data of residential users into 24×24 tuples;
(c)截取生成网络,输入n个服从标准正态分布的潜变量,生成n组与原始数据概率分 布相似的场景;(c) Intercept the generation network, input n latent variables that obey the standard normal distribution, and generate n groups of scenarios similar to the original data probability distribution;
(d)采用K-Means聚类得到潜在的居民用电负荷与光伏发电数据;(d) Using K-Means clustering to obtain potential residential electricity load and photovoltaic power generation data;
3)建立屋顶光伏与退役电池储能系统的经济性分析模型步骤:3) Steps to establish an economic analysis model for rooftop photovoltaic and decommissioned battery energy storage systems:
(a)建立退役电池储能系统模型(a) Build a model of a retired battery energy storage system
退役动力电池储能系统容量会随着电池使用次数的增加而衰减:The capacity of retired power battery energy storage system will decay with the increase of battery usage:
λRBESS=a·NCRBESS+b (7)λ RBESS = a·NC RBESS +b (7)
式中,NCRBESS为退役动力电池储能系统的使用循环次数;a为容量系数;b为容量系数; 为退役动力电池储能系统的实际容量;为退役动力电池储能系统的额定容量; NCday为退役电池储能系统的日运行等效完全充放电次数;NCb为放电深度为100%时的退役 电池循环寿命;NCi为第i个循环周期中退役电池在实际运行中的循环寿命,i=1,2,…,N;λRBESS为容量保持率;In the formula, NC RBESS is the number of use cycles of the retired power battery energy storage system; a is the capacity coefficient; b is the capacity coefficient; is the actual capacity of the retired power battery energy storage system; is the rated capacity of the retired power battery energy storage system; NC day is the daily equivalent full charge and discharge times of the retired battery energy storage system; NC b is the cycle life of the retired battery when the depth of discharge is 100%; NC i is the i-th Cycle life of decommissioned batteries in actual operation during the cycle period, i=1,2,...,N; λ RBESS is the capacity retention rate;
(b)建立屋顶光伏系统模型(b) Build a rooftop photovoltaic system model
光伏系统的容量是根据用户的年耗电量与太阳辐照强度等因素确定:The capacity of the photovoltaic system is determined according to the user's annual power consumption and solar radiation intensity and other factors:
式中:为光伏的容量;PAPC为居民用户的年耗电量;ηCR为太阳辐照覆盖率;H为太阳辐照年持续时间;where: is the photovoltaic capacity; P APC is the annual power consumption of residential users; η CR is the solar irradiation coverage rate; H is the annual duration of solar irradiation;
(c)建立屋顶光伏与退役电池储能系统运行模型(c) Establish the operation model of rooftop photovoltaic and decommissioned battery energy storage system
式中:Copt为系统运行成本;πprice为电力价格;πRprice为居民用户向电网售电价格;πPprice为居民用户向电网购电价格;PRPV为屋顶光伏的功率;PRBESS为退役电池储能系统的功率;Pload为用户消耗的电功率;t为时间,t=1,2,…,T;In the formula: C opt is the operating cost of the system; π price is the electricity price; π Rprice is the price of electricity sold by residential users to the grid; π Pprice is the price of electricity purchased by residential users from the grid; P RPV is the power of rooftop photovoltaics; P RBESS is the decommissioning The power of the battery energy storage system; P load is the electric power consumed by the user; t is the time, t=1,2,…,T;
(d)居民用户的净现值(d) Net present value of resident users
用户的净现值为正,从而表明它是有利润的;The user has a positive net present value, thus indicating that it is profitable;
式中:NCFRBESS为增装退役电池储能系统的净现金流量;NCFRPV为安装光伏屋顶的净现金流量; NPV为净现值;NCF为净现金流量;n为年份;φn(n)为未安装光伏与退役电池储能系统用户 的第n年账单;φRPV(n)为只安装光伏系统用户的第n年账单;φPVRB(n)为安装光伏与退役电池 储能联合系统用户的第n年账单;r为市场通货膨胀率;为退役电池储能系统安装成本; 为光伏系统安装成本;OM为光伏维护成本;In the formula: NCF RBESS is the net cash flow of installing and decommissioning battery energy storage systems; NCF RPV is the net cash flow of installing photovoltaic roofs; NPV is the net present value; NCF is the net cash flow; n is the year; φ n (n) is the bill of the nth year for users who have not installed photovoltaic and decommissioned battery energy storage systems; φ RPV (n) is the nth year bill of users who only install photovoltaic systems; φ PVRB (n) is the user who installed photovoltaic and decommissioned battery energy storage systems The nth year bill; r is the market inflation rate; Installation costs for decommissioning battery storage systems; is the installation cost of photovoltaic system; OM is the cost of photovoltaic maintenance;
4)根据步骤1)至步骤3),构建考虑光伏与用户用电行为不确定性的混合整数线性规 划模型,结合现行多电价政策,针对每种类型的居民用户,开展光伏屋顶-退役电池储能系统 的经济性评估。4) According to step 1) to step 3), construct a mixed integer linear programming model that considers the uncertainty of photovoltaic and user power consumption behavior, and combine the current multi-price policy to carry out photovoltaic rooftop-retirement battery storage for each type of residential users. Economic evaluation of energy systems.
上述实施例仅仅是为清楚地说明所作的举例,而并非对实施方式的限定,对于所属领域 的普通技术人员来说,在上述说明的基础上还可以做出其它不同形式的变化或变动,这里无 需也无法对所有的实施方式予以穷举,而由此所引伸出的显而易见的变化或变动仍处于本发 明创造的保护范围之中。The above-mentioned embodiments are merely examples for the purpose of clearly illustrating, rather than limiting the implementation manner. For those of ordinary skill in the art, changes or changes in other different forms can also be made on the basis of the above-mentioned descriptions. It is unnecessary and impossible to list all the embodiments, and the obvious changes or modifications derived therefrom still fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
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