CN110261551B - A kind of prediction method and device of grain safety storage time - Google Patents
A kind of prediction method and device of grain safety storage time Download PDFInfo
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- 235000013339 cereals Nutrition 0.000 claims description 232
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a device for predicting grain safe storage time. One embodiment of the method comprises: acquiring a temperature value and a water content of grain to be predicted; and substituting the temperature value and the water content of the grain to be predicted as prediction parameters into a prediction model established by using the fungal spore number of the unit weight of the grain measured by a spore counting method as a grain safe storage standard, and calculating to obtain the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted. The embodiment can accurately predict the safe storage time of the grains.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of food science. And more particularly, to a method and apparatus for predicting the safe storage time of food.
Background
With the increasing demand for food safety and market competition, food quality is of paramount importance in today's food trade. In order to ensure the quality of the grain, it must be dried to a safe storage moisture content, but it is difficult to maintain all the grains of the grain bulk below the critical moisture during long-term storage, resulting in irreversible quality loss of the grains due to fungal infection and the like. Therefore, in order to avoid the mildewing and deterioration of the grains during storage, it is necessary to accurately predict the safe storage time of the grains. The safe storage time refers to the storage time of the grains in a safe state under specific moisture content, relative humidity and temperature. The prediction of the grain safe storage time has very important guiding function in the grain storage aspect.
At present, the prediction method of the grain safe storage time comprises a grain safe storage time prediction model established by taking the germination percentage reduction condition, the dry weight loss condition or the macroscopic mould growth condition as the grain safe storage standard. The method has the advantages that the occurrence of visible mould as a grain safe storage standard is greatly controversial, and the problem is that firstly, the judgment of the visible mould of the grain is subjective judgment, so that the accuracy is difficult to guarantee; the second is to predict lack of progressivity, i.e. severe mildew has occurred in stored grain when visible mildew appears. The problem of the grain safe storage time prediction model established by taking the reduction of the dry weight loss and the germination rate as standards is that on one hand, the limit of the storage temperature is large, the prediction model is generally only effective in the storage temperature range of 10-20 ℃, and the actual storage temperature is often beyond the range, especially for the granary in China; on the other hand, the process of measuring the dry weight loss is complicated, and the period of germination rate measurement is long. The grain safe storage time prediction model established by taking the germination percentage reduction condition, the dry weight loss condition or the macroscopic mould growth condition as the grain safe storage standard is usually only suitable for high-moisture grain storage (the grain moisture content is more than 16%), while the grain moisture of the storage enterprises in China is basically below 16% and long-term storage is required, so the parameters of the prediction models and the safe storage standard are not suitable.
Therefore, it is desirable to provide a new method and apparatus for predicting the safe storage time of grains.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method and a device for predicting grain safe storage time, which are used for solving at least one of the problems in the prior art.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the invention provides a method for predicting the safe storage time of grains in a first aspect, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring a temperature value and a water content of grain to be predicted;
and substituting the temperature value and the water content of the grain to be predicted as prediction parameters into a prediction model established by taking the fungal spore number of the unit weight of the grain measured by a spore counting method as the grain safe storage standard, and calculating to obtain the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted:
t＝EXP(C-α*T-β*Mw)
wherein T is the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted, T is the temperature value of the grain to be predicted, Mw is the grain water content of the grain to be predicted, α and β are the temperature value coefficient and the grain water content coefficient, respectively, and C is a constant term.
Optionally, the method further comprises:
measuring the fungal spore number of each unit weight of a plurality of sample grains with the recorded storage time by using a spore counting method;
comparing the fungal spore number of the grain sample per unit weight with a preset threshold value to judge whether the grain sample is in a safe storage state;
acquiring a temperature value and a grain water content of the sample grain;
and fitting and calculating values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant term C according to whether the sample grain is in a safe storage state or not and the storage time, the temperature value and the grain water content of the sample grain.
Optionally, the preset threshold is 5 × 105One per gram.
Optionally, the storage conditions of the sample grain are as follows: the temperature T belongs to [10 ℃,35 ℃) and the moisture content Mw of the grain belongs to [ 11%, 18% ].
Alternatively,
for the paddy, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0951, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.7791, and the value of the constant term C is 17.915;
for the corn, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.1193, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 1.1334, and the value of the constant term C is 23.2844;
for wheat, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0887, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 0.7838, and the value of the constant term C is 17.7307;
for soybean, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0855, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.5487, and the value of the constant term C is 13.376.
The invention provides a device for predicting the safe storage time of grains, which comprises: an acquisition module and a data processor,
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the temperature value and the water content of the grain to be predicted;
the data processor is used for substituting the temperature value and the water content of the grain to be predicted as prediction parameters into the following prediction model established by using the fungal spore number of unit weight of the grain measured by a spore counting method as the grain safe storage standard, and calculating to obtain the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted:
t＝EXP(C-α*T-β*Mw)
wherein T is the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted, T is the temperature value of the grain to be predicted, Mw is the grain water content of the grain to be predicted, α and β are the temperature value coefficient and the grain water content coefficient, respectively, and C is a constant term.
Alternatively,
the acquisition module is also used for acquiring the temperature value and the grain moisture content of the sample grain;
the data processor is also used for comparing the fungal spore number of unit weight of a plurality of samples of grain with storage time recorded and determined by using a spore counting method with a preset threshold value to judge whether the sample grain is in a safe storage state, and fitting and calculating the values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant term C according to whether the sample grain is in the safe storage state, the storage time of the sample grain, the temperature value and the grain water content.
Optionally, the preset threshold is 5 × 105One per gram.
Optionally, the storage conditions of the sample grain are as follows: the temperature T belongs to [10 ℃,35 ℃) and the moisture content Mw of the grain belongs to [ 11%, 18% ].
Alternatively,
for the paddy, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0951, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.7791, and the value of the constant term C is 17.915;
for the corn, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.1193, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 1.1334, and the value of the constant term C is 23.2844;
for wheat, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0887, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 0.7838, and the value of the constant term C is 17.7307;
for soybean, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0855, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.5487, and the value of the constant term C is 13.376.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the technical scheme of the invention predicts the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted based on the prediction model established by taking the fungal spore number of unit weight of the grain measured by a spore counting method as the grain safe storage standard, and can accurately obtain the prediction result of the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted.
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The following describes embodiments of the present invention in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings;
fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating a method for predicting grain safe storage time according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a prediction apparatus for grain safe storage time according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to more clearly illustrate the invention, the invention is further described below with reference to preferred embodiments and the accompanying drawings. Similar parts in the figures are denoted by the same reference numerals. It is to be understood by persons skilled in the art that the following detailed description is illustrative and not restrictive, and is not to be taken as limiting the scope of the invention.
As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting a safe storage time of grain, including:
acquiring a temperature value and a water content of grain to be predicted;
and substituting the temperature value and the water content of the grain to be predicted as prediction parameters into a prediction model established by taking the fungal spore number of the unit weight of the grain measured by a spore counting method as the grain safe storage standard, and calculating to obtain the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted:
t＝EXP(C-α*T-β*Mw)
wherein T is the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted, T is the temperature value of the grain to be predicted, Mw is the grain water content of the grain to be predicted, α and β are the temperature value coefficient and the grain water content coefficient, respectively, and C is a constant term.
The method for predicting the grain safe storage time provided by the embodiment predicts the grain safe storage time to be predicted based on the prediction model established by taking the fungal spore number of the unit weight of the grain measured by the spore counting method as the grain safe storage standard, and can accurately obtain the prediction result of the grain safe storage time to be predicted.
In this embodiment, the temperature value of the grain to be predicted can be directly acquired by the temperature sensor arranged in the grain pile. The water content of the grain can be obtained by detecting a drying method, and can also be obtained by calculating according to the temperature and humidity values of the grain to be predicted. The humidity value of the grain to be predicted can be directly acquired through a humidity sensor arranged in the grain pile.
In some optional implementations of this embodiment, the method further includes:
measuring the fungal spore number of each unit weight of a plurality of sample grains with the recorded storage time by using a spore counting method;
comparing the fungal spore number of the grain sample per unit weight with a preset threshold value to judge whether the grain sample is in a safe storage state;
acquiring a temperature value and a grain water content of the sample grain;
and fitting and calculating values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant term C according to whether the sample grain is in a safe storage state or not and the stored time, temperature value and grain water content of the sample grain.
According to the implementation mode, the fungal spore number of unit weight of the grain, which is measured by a spore counting method, is used as a grain safe storage standard, fitting calculation of values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant item C is carried out, and the values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant item C can be accurately obtained, so that the accuracy of prediction of grain safe storage time is ensured. In addition, the spore counting method can be used for accurately and objectively detecting the number of fungus spores growing on the surfaces of grain particles, so that the condition that the grain is mildewed can be detected before the mildew is visible by naked eyes, and corresponding measures can be taken in time to prevent the mildewing before the mildew is visible by the naked eyes in the stored grain.
In one specific example, the determination of the number of fungal spores using the spore counting method is performed every 10 days for a low moisture sample grain, and every 5 days for a high moisture sample grain, and the determination of the number of fungal spores using the spore counting method is performed as follows: 10g of grain sample is placed in a test tube with a plug of 80ml, 30ml of water is added into the test tube, the plug is added, the test tube is rapidly shaken vigorously for 1 minute, filtered by a filter cloth with 300 meshes, filtrate is taken and siphoned into a counting area of a blood counting chamber, and the counting of fungus (mould) spores is carried out under a microscope. Therefore, the spore counting method is used for measuring the fungal spore number, the operation is simple and easy, the measurement can be completed quickly, and the measurement time of each sample grain can be controlled within 2 min.
In a specific example, the prediction model can be subjected to multivariate nonlinear fitting by using an nlinfit statement of Matlab software to fit and calculate values of a temperature value coefficient alpha, a grain water content coefficient beta and a constant term C.
In some optional implementations of this embodiment, the preset threshold is 5 × 105One per gram. The value of the preset threshold value in the implementation mode considers the influence of fungal spores on the grain quality, and can ensure the accuracy of the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant item C in fitting calculation, thereby ensuring that the grain safety is ensuredAccuracy of full storage time prediction.
In some optional implementations of this embodiment, the storage conditions of the sample grain are: the temperature T belongs to [10 ℃,35 ℃) and the moisture content Mw of the grain belongs to [ 11%, 18% ]. In one specific example, for rice, more preferred sample grain storage conditions are: the temperature value T belongs to [10 ℃,35 ℃), the moisture content Mw of the grain belongs to [ 13%, 16.5% ]; for corn, more preferred sample grain storage conditions are: the temperature value T belongs to [10 ℃,35 ℃), the moisture content Mw of the grain belongs to [ 13%, 17.5% ]; for wheat, more preferred storage conditions for the sample grain are: the temperature value T belongs to [10 ℃,35 ℃), the moisture content Mw of the grain belongs to [ 13%, 16%) ]; for soybeans, more preferred sample grain storage conditions are: the temperature T belongs to [10 ℃,35 ℃) and the moisture content Mw of the grain belongs to [ 11.5%, 16% ].
In some alternative implementations of the present embodiment,
for the rice, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0951, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.7791, and the value of the constant term C is 17.915, and experiments prove that for the values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain moisture content coefficient beta and the constant term C of the rice, the decision coefficient R of the prediction model2Can reach 0.962;
for the corn, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.1193, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 1.1334, and the value of the constant term C is 23.2844, and experiments prove that for the values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant term C of the corn, the decision coefficient R of the prediction model2Can reach 0.948;
for wheat, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0887, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 0.7838, and the value of the constant term C is 17.7307, and experiments prove that for the values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant term C of wheat, the decision coefficient R of a prediction model2Can reach 0.948;
for soybean, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0855, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.5487, and the value of the constant term C is 13.376, which are proved by experimentsFor the values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain moisture content coefficient beta and the constant term C of the soybean, a determination coefficient R of a prediction model2Up to 0.943.
As shown in fig. 2, another embodiment of the present invention provides a device for predicting the safe storage time of food, including: an acquisition module and a data processor,
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the temperature value and the water content of the grain to be predicted;
the data processor is used for substituting the temperature value and the water content of the grain to be predicted as prediction parameters into the following prediction model established by using the fungal spore number of unit weight of the grain measured by a spore counting method as the grain safe storage standard, and calculating to obtain the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted:
t＝EXP(C-α*T-β*Mw)
wherein T is the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted, T is the temperature value of the grain to be predicted, Mw is the grain water content of the grain to be predicted, α and β are the temperature value coefficient and the grain water content coefficient, respectively, and C is a constant term.
The acquisition module comprises a temperature sensor for acquiring the temperature value of the grain to be predicted and a humidity sensor for acquiring the humidity value of the grain to be predicted. The grain moisture content can be detected by a drying method and then input to the acquisition module, and the acquisition module can also calculate the moisture content according to the temperature and humidity values of the grain to be predicted acquired by the temperature and humidity sensors.
In some alternative implementations of the present embodiment,
the acquisition module is also used for acquiring the temperature value and the grain moisture content of the sample grain;
the data processor is also used for comparing the fungal spore number of unit weight of a plurality of samples of grain with storage time recorded and determined by using a spore counting method with a preset threshold value to judge whether the sample grain is in a safe storage state, and fitting and calculating the values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant term C according to whether the sample grain is in the safe storage state, the stored time, the temperature value and the grain water content of the sample grain.
In some optional implementations of this embodiment, the preset threshold is 5 × 105One per gram.
In some optional implementations of this embodiment, the storage conditions of the sample grain are: the temperature T belongs to [10 ℃,35 ℃) and the moisture content Mw of the grain belongs to [ 11%, 18% ].
In some alternative implementations of the present embodiment,
for the paddy, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0951, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.7791, and the value of the constant term C is 17.915;
for the corn, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.1193, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 1.1334, and the value of the constant term C is 23.2844;
for wheat, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0887, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 0.7838, and the value of the constant term C is 17.7307;
for soybean, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0855, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.5487, and the value of the constant term C is 13.376.
In some optional implementation manners of this embodiment, the apparatus provided in this embodiment further includes a display screen for displaying the grain safe storage time, and the obtaining module, the data processor and the display screen are integrated in the handheld device. The data processor can be arranged in the handheld device, the temperature sensor and the humidity sensor in the acquisition module can adopt the structure of a probe respectively, and the data processor is connected with the handheld device through a cable. The implementation mode can realize handheld use, is convenient to carry, has high prediction speed and is simple and convenient to operate.
In some alternative implementations of this embodiment, the apparatus further includes a speaker integrated into the handheld device,
and the data processor is also used for comparing the predicted safe storage time of the grain to be predicted with the stored time of the grain to be predicted and giving an alarm through the display screen and/or the loudspeaker according to the comparison result. For example, the predicted safe storage time of the grain to be predicted is 15 days, and the grain to be predicted is stored for 14 days, an alarm is given through a display screen and/or a loudspeaker to give a prompt that the safe storage period is critical.
It should be noted that the principle and the working flow of the prediction apparatus for grain safe storage time provided in this embodiment are similar to the above prediction method for grain safe storage time, and reference may be made to the above description for relevant points, which are not described herein again.
It is to be noted that, in the description of the present invention, relational terms such as first and second, and the like are used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
It should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments of the present invention are only examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention, and it will be obvious to those skilled in the art that other variations and modifications can be made on the basis of the above description, and all embodiments cannot be exhaustive, and all obvious variations and modifications belonging to the technical scheme of the present invention are within the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A prediction method of grain safe storage time is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a temperature value and a water content of grain to be predicted;
and substituting the temperature value and the water content of the grain to be predicted as prediction parameters into a prediction model established by taking the fungal spore number of the unit weight of the grain measured by a spore counting method as the grain safe storage standard, and calculating to obtain the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted:
t＝EXP(C-α*T-β*Mw)
wherein T is the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted, T is the temperature value of the grain to be predicted, Mw is the grain water content of the grain to be predicted, α and β are the temperature value coefficient and the grain water content coefficient, respectively, and C is a constant term.
2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:
measuring the fungal spore number of each unit weight of a plurality of sample grains with the recorded storage time by using a spore counting method;
comparing the fungal spore number of the grain sample per unit weight with a preset threshold value to judge whether the grain sample is in a safe storage state;
acquiring a temperature value and a grain water content of the sample grain;
and fitting and calculating values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant term C according to whether the sample grain is in a safe storage state or not and the storage time, the temperature value and the grain water content of the sample grain.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the predetermined threshold is 5 x 105One per gram.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the sample grain is stored under conditions selected from the group consisting of: the temperature T belongs to [10 ℃,35 ℃) and the moisture content Mw of the grain belongs to [ 11%, 18% ].
5. The method of claim 4,
for the paddy, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0951, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.7791, and the value of the constant term C is 17.915;
for the corn, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.1193, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 1.1334, and the value of the constant term C is 23.2844;
for wheat, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0887, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 0.7838, and the value of the constant term C is 17.7307;
for soybean, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0855, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.5487, and the value of the constant term C is 13.376.
6. A device for predicting the safe storage time of grain, comprising: an acquisition module and a data processor,
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the temperature value and the water content of the grain to be predicted;
the data processor is used for substituting the temperature value and the water content of the grain to be predicted as prediction parameters into the following prediction model established by using the fungal spore number of unit weight of the grain measured by a spore counting method as the grain safe storage standard, and calculating to obtain the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted:
t＝EXP(C-α*T-β*Mw)
wherein T is the safe storage time of the grain to be predicted, T is the temperature value of the grain to be predicted, Mw is the grain water content of the grain to be predicted, α and β are the temperature value coefficient and the grain water content coefficient, respectively, and C is a constant term.
7. The apparatus of claim 6,
the acquisition module is also used for acquiring the temperature value and the grain moisture content of the sample grain;
the data processor is also used for comparing the fungal spore number of unit weight of a plurality of samples of grain with storage time recorded and determined by using a spore counting method with a preset threshold value to judge whether the sample grain is in a safe storage state, and fitting and calculating the values of the temperature value coefficient alpha, the grain water content coefficient beta and the constant term C according to whether the sample grain is in the safe storage state, the storage time of the sample grain, the temperature value and the grain water content.
8. The apparatus of claim 7, wherein the preset threshold is 5 x 105One per gram.
9. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the sample grain is stored under conditions of: the temperature T belongs to [10 ℃,35 ℃) and the moisture content Mw of the grain belongs to [ 11%, 18% ].
10. The apparatus of claim 9,
for the paddy, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0951, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.7791, and the value of the constant term C is 17.915;
for the corn, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.1193, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 1.1334, and the value of the constant term C is 23.2844;
for wheat, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0887, the value of the grain water content coefficient beta is 0.7838, and the value of the constant term C is 17.7307;
for soybean, the value of the temperature value coefficient alpha is 0.0855, the value of the grain moisture content coefficient beta is 0.5487, and the value of the constant term C is 13.376.
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