CN110097223B - Early warning method for damage of power transmission line under typhoon disaster - Google Patents
Early warning method for damage of power transmission line under typhoon disaster Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明属于电力系统风险评估领域,尤其涉及一种台风灾害下输电线路损毁 预警方法。The invention belongs to the field of power system risk assessment, and in particular relates to an early warning method for damage to power transmission lines under typhoon disasters.
背景技术Background technique
随着经济发展,电网的电力基础设施不断完善,但是自然灾害会对电网设备 造成严重的威胁,其中台风灾害对电网的威胁最为显著,尤其在沿海地区,台风 灾害对电网设施造成了严重破坏,导致大面积停电等事故,对经济发展、人民生 产生活造成极大的影响。因此,迫切需要建立行之有效的预警手段。With economic development, the power infrastructure of the power grid has been continuously improved, but natural disasters will pose serious threats to power grid equipment. Among them, the threat of typhoon disasters to the power grid is the most significant, especially in coastal areas, typhoon disasters have caused serious damage to power grid facilities. Accidents such as large-scale power outages have caused a great impact on economic development and people's production and life. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish effective early warning means.
以往输电线路损毁预警的有些方法,对影响因素考虑不够全面,比如工程实 践中已证实具有重要影响的微地形因素;有些方法虽然考虑的因素较为全面,但 是计算方法较为复杂,不适合做大规模仿真计算;有些方法仅仅使用确定性的风 速进行计算,未能考虑预测风速的不确定性,因此适用性不强。In the past, some methods of early warning of transmission line damage did not consider the influencing factors comprehensively, such as the micro-topographic factors that have been proved to have an important impact in engineering practice; although some methods considered more comprehensive factors, the calculation methods were more complex and not suitable for large-scale Simulation calculation; some methods only use the deterministic wind speed for calculation, and fail to consider the uncertainty of the predicted wind speed, so the applicability is not strong.
可见,以往这些方法在输电线路损毁预警中存在数据分析考虑因素不够全面、 适用性不够强、因果算法效率偏低等不足。因此,迫切需要研究一种考虑因素全 面、适应性强、计算效率高的损毁预警方法。It can be seen that these methods in the past have shortcomings such as insufficient data analysis considerations, insufficient applicability, and low efficiency of causal algorithms in the early warning of transmission line damage. Therefore, there is an urgent need to study a damage early warning method with comprehensive considerations, strong adaptability and high computational efficiency.
发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
为了解决现有输电线路损毁预警方法存在的考虑因素不够全面、适用性不强、 算法效率偏低的问题,本发明提出了一种台风灾害下输电线路损毁预警方法。In order to solve the problems of insufficient consideration factors, weak applicability and low algorithm efficiency in the existing transmission line damage early warning method, the present invention proposes a transmission line damage early warning method under typhoon disaster.
本发明的技术方案为一种台风灾害下输电线路损毁预警方法,具体包括以下 步骤:The technical scheme of the present invention is an early warning method for the damage of power transmission lines under a typhoon disaster, which specifically comprises the following steps:
步骤1:对气象信息、设备运行信息、微地形信息、实时损毁信息进行采集 以构建训练集;Step 1: Collect meteorological information, equipment operation information, micro-terrain information, and real-time damage information to construct a training set;
步骤2:对训练集中信息进行信息量化、缺省值处理、标准化处理;Step 2: Perform information quantification, default value processing, and standardization processing on the information in the training set;
步骤3:基于极值I型概率分布、随机森林法、蒙特卡罗法建立输电线路损 毁概率混合预测模型,并计算损毁概率;Step 3: Establish a hybrid prediction model of transmission line damage probability based on extreme value I-type probability distribution, random forest method, and Monte Carlo method, and calculate the damage probability;
步骤4:根据损毁概率进行风险指标计算,进行灾后抢修。Step 4: Calculate the risk index according to the probability of damage, and carry out emergency repair after the disaster.
作为优选,步骤1中所述气象信息包括最大阵风为V;Preferably, the meteorological information in step 1 includes that the maximum gust is V;
步骤1中所述设备运行信息包括运行时间为T、设计风速为V′;The equipment operation information in step 1 includes that the operation time is T and the design wind speed is V';
步骤1中所述微地形信息包括海拔为H、坡向为A、坡度为S、坡位为P、下 垫面类型为U、地表粗糙度为R;The micro-topography information described in step 1 includes that the altitude is H, the slope aspect is A, the slope is S, the slope position is P, the underlying surface type is U, and the surface roughness is R;
步骤1中所述实时损毁信息包括设备的损毁状态为Y;The real-time damage information described in step 1 includes that the damage status of the equipment is Y;
步骤1中所述训练集中信息为:The information in the training set described in step 1 is:
最大阵风为V(m/s)、设备运行时间为T(年)、设计风速为V′(m/s)、海 拔为H(m)、坡向为A(°)、坡度为S(°)、坡位为P、下垫面类型为U、地表 粗糙度为R(m)、损毁状态为Y;训练集中每条数据均为由上述变量构成的长度 为10的向量。The maximum gust is V(m/s), the equipment running time is T(year), the design wind speed is V′(m/s), the altitude is H(m), the slope aspect is A(°), and the slope is S(°). ), the slope position is P, the underlying surface type is U, the surface roughness is R(m), and the damage state is Y; each data in the training set is a vector of length 10 composed of the above variables.
作为优选,步骤2中所述对训练集中信息进行量化的过程为:Preferably, the process of quantizing the information in the training set described in step 2 is:
由于V、T、V′、H、A、S、P、U、R均为数据格式,仅对训练集中信息Y 进行量化,量化后损毁状态用Y*表示;Since V, T, V', H, A, S, P, U, and R are all data formats, only the information Y in the training set is quantized, and the damaged state after quantization is represented by Y*;
步骤2中所述对训练集中信息进行缺省值处理为:The default value processing for the information in the training set described in step 2 is:
分别将V、T、V′、H、A、S、P、U、R的缺省值采用中位数进行填充,得到 处理后的变量为:The default values of V, T, V', H, A, S, P, U and R are filled with the median respectively, and the processed variables are:
缺省值处理后最大阵风为Vf、缺省值处理后设备运行时间为Tf、缺省值处理 后设计风速为Vf′、缺省值处理后海拔为Hf、缺省值处理后坡向为Af、缺省值处 理后坡度为Sf、缺省值处理后坡位为Pf、缺省值处理后下垫面类型为Uf、缺省值 处理后地表粗糙度为Rf;After the default value processing, the maximum gust is V f , the equipment running time after the default value processing is T f , the design wind speed after the default value processing is V f ′, the altitude after the default value processing is H f , and the default value processing The slope aspect is A f , the default value of the slope after processing is S f , the default value of the slope position after processing is P f , the type of the underlying surface after the default value processing is U f , and the surface roughness after the default value processing is R f ;
步骤2中所述对缺省值处理后数据进行数据标准化处理为:The data standardization processing on the data after the default value processing described in step 2 is as follows:
分别将Vf、Tf、Vf′、Hf、Af、Sf、Pf、Uf、Rf根据标准化变量计算,具体公 式为:Calculate V f , T f , V f ′, H f , A f , S f , P f , U f , and R f respectively according to the standardized variables, and the specific formula is:
X*=(x-xmin)/(xmax-xmin)X * = (xx min )/(x max -x min )
式中,x为缺省值处理后数据中Vf、Tf、Vf′、Hf、Af、Sf、Pf、Uf、Rf中的 值,xmin为缺省值处理后数据Vf、Tf、Vf′、Hf、Af、Sf、Pf、Uf、Rf中的最小值,xmax为缺省值处理后数据Vf、Tf、Vf′、Hf、Af、Sf、Pf、Uf、Rf中的最大值,X*为标 准化后的变量即:标准化后最大阵风为V*、标准化后设备运行时间为T*、标准 化后设计风速为V′*、标准化后海拔为H*、标准化后坡向为A*、标准化后坡度 为S*、标准化后坡位为P*、标准化后下垫面类型为U*、标准化后地表粗糙度为R*;In the formula, x is the value of V f , T f , V f ′, H f , A f , S f , P f , U f , and R f in the data after the default value processing, and x min is the default value processing The minimum value among the post-data V f , T f , V f ′, H f , A f , S f , P f , U f , and R f , x max is the default value of the post-processing data V f , T f , V The maximum value among f ′, H f , A f , S f , P f , U f , and R f , X* is the variable after normalization, namely: the maximum gust after normalization is V*, and the running time of the equipment after normalization is T* , the design wind speed after standardization is V′*, the altitude after standardization is H*, the slope aspect after standardization is A*, the slope after standardization is S*, the slope position after standardization is P*, the type of underlying surface after standardization is U*, The surface roughness after normalization is R*;
作为优选,步骤3中所述基于极值I型概率分布的过程如下:Preferably, the process based on the extreme value type I probability distribution described in step 3 is as follows:
对极值I型概率分布进行参数估计,假设Vf服从极值I型概率分布,则极 值I型概率分布函数计算公式为:Parameter estimation is performed on the extreme value type I probability distribution. Assuming that V f obeys the extreme value type I probability distribution, the calculation formula of the extreme value type I probability distribution function is:
式中,a为分布的尺度参数;u为分布的位置参数,其概率密度分布函数计算公 式为:In the formula, a is the scale parameter of the distribution; u is the location parameter of the distribution, and the calculation formula of the probability density distribution function is:
可利用矩估计法对尺度参数和位置参数进行估计。The scale parameter and the location parameter can be estimated using the method of moments estimation.
一阶矩(数学期望)计算公式为:The first-order moment (mathematical expectation) is calculated as:
其中:y≈0.57722,二阶矩(方差)计算公式为:Among them: y≈0.57722, the second-order moment (variance) calculation formula is:
由此得到尺度参数a的计算公式为:The calculation formula of the scale parameter a is thus obtained:
位置参数u的计算公式为:The calculation formula of the position parameter u is:
则N年一遇的极大值风速xP出现的概率为保证率,其计算公式为:Then the probability of occurrence of the maximum wind speed x P that occurs once in N years is the guarantee rate, and its calculation formula is:
P(xp)=P(Vf>xP)=1-P(Vf≤xp)=1-F(xp)P(x p )=P(V f >x P )=1-P(V f ≤x p )=1-F(x p )
式中,P(xp)为N年一遇极大值风速出现的概率;In the formula, P(x p ) is the probability of occurrence of the maximum wind speed once in N years;
基于极值I型概率分布,以风速点为单位模拟预测风场的分布,风速点的精 度可达到1km×1km,假设每个阵风点处不同时间的最大阵风Vf满足极值I型概 率分布,用Vf计算a和u,为每个风速点拟合一个极值I型分布,实现风场分布 模拟;Based on the extreme value type I probability distribution, the distribution of the wind field is simulated and predicted in units of wind speed points, and the accuracy of the wind speed point can reach 1km × 1km. It is assumed that the maximum gust V f at each gust point at different times satisfies the extreme value type I probability distribution , use V f to calculate a and u, fit an extreme value I-type distribution for each wind speed point, and realize the simulation of wind field distribution;
步骤3中所述随机森林法的过程如下:The process of random forest method described in step 3 is as follows:
随机森林算法的输入为:The input to the random forest algorithm is:
V*、V′*、T*、H*、A*、S*、P*、U*、R*;V*, V′*, T*, H*, A*, S*, P*, U*, R*;
输出为:The output is:
损毁状态为Y*=1的概率;The probability that the damaged state is Y*=1;
步骤3中所述蒙特卡罗法的具体过程如下:The specific process of the Monte Carlo method described in step 3 is as follows:
当基于极值I型概率分布确定后,用蒙特卡罗方法随机抽取风速,并在每次 随机风场下,假设每个风速点的风速具有相对独立性,则整个风场的分布可简化 为单个风速点处的阵风分布;When determined based on the extreme value I-type probability distribution, the Monte Carlo method is used to randomly extract the wind speed, and in each random wind field, assuming that the wind speed of each wind speed point is relatively independent, the distribution of the entire wind field can be simplified as Gust distribution at a single wind speed point;
在N个风速点上依均匀分布随机生成M次风速,定义第i个风速点处第j 次风速为Vi,j,其中,i=1,2,...,N为风速点的序列,j=1,2,...,M为随机样本的 序列,同时利用拟合好的极值I型概率分布计算每个随机风速出现的概率 P(Vf=Vi,j);M times wind speeds are randomly generated according to uniform distribution at N wind speed points, and the jth wind speed at the ith wind speed point is defined as Vi ,j , where i=1,2,...,N is the sequence of wind speed points , j=1,2,...,M is a sequence of random samples, and at the same time, the probability of occurrence of each random wind speed P (V f =V i,j ) is calculated by using the fitted extreme value I-type probability distribution;
步骤3中所述计算损毁概率为:The calculated damage probability described in step 3 is:
在每次随机风场下,利用RF法计算杆塔的损毁概率f(xi|Vf=Vi,j),其中, xi为风速点i处的特征向量,Vf为xi的风速分量,根据蒙特卡罗法,该风速点处 的杆塔损毁概率相当于M次预测结果的平均值,每个风速点处的杆塔损毁概率计 算公式为:In each random wind field, the RF method is used to calculate the damage probability f of the tower ( xi |V f =V i,j ), where x i is the eigenvector at the wind speed point i, and V f is the wind speed of x i component, according to the Monte Carlo method, the damage probability of the tower at this wind speed point is equivalent to the average value of the M prediction results, and the calculation formula of the damage probability of the tower at each wind speed point is:
式中:M为总抽样次数,Vi,j为风速点i处第j次生成的风速;In the formula: M is the total sampling times, and Vi ,j is the wind speed generated by the jth time at the wind speed point i;
作为优选,步骤4中所述风险指标计算的步骤如下:Preferably, the steps of calculating the risk index described in step 4 are as follows:
设置损毁概率0.5为阈值,Pi>0.5认为杆塔损毁,Pi<0.5表示杆塔不损毁, 设备损毁单位数的平均值Num计算公式为:The damage probability is set to 0.5 as the threshold value, P i >0.5 means the tower is damaged, P i <0.5 means the tower is not damaged, and the calculation formula of the average Num of equipment damage units is:
修复时间的平均值TRe计算公式为:The formula for calculating the average repair time T Re is:
修复费用的平均值C计算公式为:The formula for calculating the average value C of the repair cost is:
人力需求的平均值L计算公式为:The formula for calculating the average value L of manpower requirements is:
抢修车辆需求的平均值V计算公式为:The calculation formula of the average value V of the demand for emergency repair vehicles is:
式中,t为单位设备修复时长;c为单位修复费用;m为单位设备所需人力;v 为单位修复费用;均由历史统计数据得出;[·]为向上取整函数,I(·)为指示函数, 定义如下:In the formula, t is the repair time per unit of equipment; c is the repair cost per unit; m is the manpower required per unit of equipment; v is the repair cost per unit; ) is the indicator function, which is defined as follows:
步骤4中所述进行灾后抢修为:The post-disaster repairs described in Step 4 are:
得到各风速点的损毁概率Pi后,同时风险指标Num、C、L、V可以指导防灾 减灾部门进行设备、费用、人员、车辆资源的预调配,并根据TRe指标发布停电 时长预警信息。After obtaining the damage probability Pi of each wind speed point, at the same time, the risk indicators Num, C, L, and V can guide the disaster prevention and mitigation department to pre-allocate equipment, expenses, personnel, and vehicle resources, and release the power outage duration warning information according to the T Re index. .
本发明具有如下优点:The present invention has the following advantages:
综合考虑气象信息、设备运行信息、微地形信息、交通信息、植被信息、实 时损毁信息等,考虑的因素较为全面;Comprehensive consideration of meteorological information, equipment operation information, micro-topography information, traffic information, vegetation information, real-time damage information, etc., the factors considered are relatively comprehensive;
利用极值I型概率分布和Monte Carlo法多次模拟随机风场,考虑到了预测 风场的不确定性,相比于使用确定的预测风速,输电线路损毁概率混合预测模型 具有更强的适应性和更高的可信度;Using extreme value I-type probability distribution and Monte Carlo method to simulate the random wind field many times, considering the uncertainty of the predicted wind field, the hybrid prediction model of transmission line damage probability has stronger adaptability than using the deterministic predicted wind speed. and higher credibility;
基于随机森林法的损毁概率预测模型计算效率高,尤其适用于大规模预测;The damage probability prediction model based on random forest method has high computational efficiency, especially suitable for large-scale prediction;
风险指标的计算基于历史统计数据和输电线路损毁概率混合预测模型,能从 宏观上合理估算所需抢修资源。The calculation of risk indicators is based on historical statistical data and a mixed prediction model of transmission line damage probability, which can reasonably estimate the required emergency repair resources from a macro perspective.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1:本发明的方法流程图;Fig. 1: method flow chart of the present invention;
图2:预测风场下损毁概率混合预测模型损毁预测。Figure 2: Prediction of damage by a hybrid prediction model of damage probability in a wind farm.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
为了便于本领域普通技术人员理解和实施本发明,下面结合附图及实施例对 本发明作进一步的详细描述,应当理解,此处所描述的实施示例仅用于说明和解 释本发明,并不用于限定本发明。In order to facilitate the understanding and implementation of the present invention by those skilled in the art, the present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the embodiments described herein are only used to illustrate and explain the present invention, but not to limit it. this invention.
下面结合图1至图2介绍本发明的具体实施方式,包括以下步骤:Below in conjunction with Fig. 1 to Fig. 2, the specific embodiment of the present invention is introduced, including the following steps:
步骤1,对气象信息、设备运行信息、微地形信息、实时损毁信息进行采集 以构建训练集;Step 1, collecting meteorological information, equipment operation information, micro-topographic information, and real-time damage information to construct a training set;
步骤1中所述气象信息包括最大阵风为V,利用ArcGIS10.4.1对气象信息 中的最大阵风V进行反距离权重插值处理,并将相关数据提取到设备所在坐标点。The meteorological information described in the step 1 includes that the maximum gust is V, and ArcGIS10.4.1 is used to carry out inverse distance weight interpolation processing to the maximum gust V in the meteorological information, and the relevant data is extracted to the coordinate point where the equipment is located.
步骤1中所述设备运行信息包括运行时间为T、设计风速为V′;The equipment operation information in step 1 includes that the operation time is T and the design wind speed is V';
步骤1中所述微地形信息包括海拔为H、坡向为A、坡度为S、坡位为P、下 垫面类型为U、地表粗糙度为R,利用ArcGIS10.4.1对上述地理信息进行反距离 权重插值处理,并将相关数据提取到设备所在坐标点;The micro-topographic information in step 1 includes the altitude as H, the slope aspect as A, the slope as S, the slope position as P, the underlying surface type as U, and the surface roughness as R. Distance weight interpolation processing, and extract relevant data to the coordinate point where the device is located;
步骤1中所述实时损毁信息包括设备的损毁状态为Y,由电力部门的远程监 测或巡检人员提供,本实施例用1表示杆塔损毁状态,0表示杆塔未损毁状态;The real-time damage information described in the step 1 includes that the damage state of the equipment is Y, and is provided by the remote monitoring or inspection personnel of the electric power department, and the present embodiment uses 1 to represent the tower damage state, and 0 represents the tower undamaged state;
步骤1中所述训练集中信息为:The information in the training set described in step 1 is:
最大阵风为V(m/s)、设备运行时间为T(年)、设计风速为V′(m/s)、海 拔为H(m)、坡向为A(°)、坡度为S(°)、坡位为P、下垫面类型为U、地表 粗糙度为R(m)、损毁状态为Y;训练集中每条数据均为由上述变量构成的长度 为10的向量。The maximum gust is V(m/s), the equipment running time is T(year), the design wind speed is V′(m/s), the altitude is H(m), the slope aspect is A(°), and the slope is S(°). ), the slope position is P, the underlying surface type is U, the surface roughness is R(m), and the damage state is Y; each data in the training set is a vector of length 10 composed of the above variables.
步骤2,对训练集中信息进行信息量化、缺省值处理、标准化处理;Step 2, performing information quantification, default value processing, and standardization processing on the information in the training set;
步骤2中所述对训练集中信息进行量化的过程为:The process of quantifying the information in the training set described in step 2 is as follows:
由于V、T、V′、H、A、S、P、U、R均为数据格式,仅对训练集中信息Y 进行量化,量化后损毁状态用Y*表示;Since V, T, V', H, A, S, P, U, and R are all data formats, only the information Y in the training set is quantized, and the damaged state after quantization is represented by Y*;
步骤2中所述对训练集中信息进行缺省值处理为:The default value processing for the information in the training set described in step 2 is:
分别将V、T、V′、H、A、S、P、U、R的缺省值采用中位数进行填充,得到 处理后的变量为:The default values of V, T, V', H, A, S, P, U and R are filled with the median respectively, and the processed variables are:
缺省值处理后最大阵风为Vf、缺省值处理后设备运行时间为Tf、缺省值处理 后设计风速为Vf′、缺省值处理后海拔为Hf、缺省值处理后坡向为Af、缺省值处 理后坡度为Sf、缺省值处理后坡位为Pf、缺省值处理后下垫面类型为Uf、缺省值 处理后地表粗糙度为Rf;After the default value processing, the maximum gust is V f , the equipment running time after the default value processing is T f , the design wind speed after the default value processing is V f ′, the altitude after the default value processing is H f , and the default value processing The slope aspect is A f , the default value of the slope after processing is S f , the default value of the slope position after processing is P f , the type of the underlying surface after the default value processing is U f , and the surface roughness after the default value processing is R f ;
步骤2中所述对缺省值处理后数据进行数据标准化处理为:The data standardization processing on the data after the default value processing described in step 2 is as follows:
分别将Vf、Tf、Vf′、Hf、Af、Sf、Pf、Uf、Rf根据标准化变量计算,具体公 式为:Calculate V f , T f , V f ′, H f , A f , S f , P f , U f , and R f respectively according to the standardized variables, and the specific formula is:
X*=(x-xmin)/(xmax-xmin)X * = (xx min )/(x max -x min )
式中,x为缺省值处理后数据中Vf、Tf、Vf′、Hf、Af、Sf、Pf、Uf、Rf中的 值,xmin为缺省值处理后数据Vf、Tf、Vf′、Hf、Af、Sf、Pf、Uf、Rf中的最小值,xmax为缺省值处理后数据Vf、Tf、Vf′、Hf、Af、Sf、Pf、Uf、Rf中的最大值,X*为标 准化后的变量即:标准化后最大阵风为V*、标准化后设备运行时间为T*、标准 化后设计风速为V′*、标准化后海拔为H*、标准化后坡向为A*、标准化后坡度 为S*、标准化后坡位为P*、标准化后下垫面类型为U*、标准化后地表粗糙度为R*;In the formula, x is the value of V f , T f , V f ′, H f , A f , S f , P f , U f , and R f in the data after the default value processing, and x min is the default value processing The minimum value among the post-data V f , T f , V f ′, H f , A f , S f , P f , U f , and R f , x max is the default value of the post-processing data V f , T f , V The maximum value among f ′, H f , A f , S f , P f , U f , and R f , X* is the variable after normalization, namely: the maximum gust after normalization is V*, and the running time of the equipment after normalization is T* , the design wind speed after standardization is V′*, the altitude after standardization is H*, the slope aspect after standardization is A*, the slope after standardization is S*, the slope position after standardization is P*, the type of underlying surface after standardization is U*, The surface roughness after normalization is R*;
步骤3,基于极值I型概率分布、随机森林法、蒙特卡罗法建立输电线路损 毁概率混合预测模型,并计算损毁概率;Step 3, based on the extreme value I-type probability distribution, random forest method, and Monte Carlo method, establish a mixed prediction model of transmission line damage probability, and calculate the damage probability;
步骤3中所述基于极值I型概率分布的过程如下:The process based on the extreme value type I probability distribution described in step 3 is as follows:
对极值I型概率分布进行参数估计,假设Vf服从极值I型概率分布,则极 值I型概率分布函数计算公式为:Parameter estimation is performed on the extreme value type I probability distribution. Assuming that V f obeys the extreme value type I probability distribution, the calculation formula of the extreme value type I probability distribution function is:
式中,a为分布的尺度参数;u为分布的位置参数,其概率密度分布函数计算公 式为:In the formula, a is the scale parameter of the distribution; u is the location parameter of the distribution, and the calculation formula of the probability density distribution function is:
可利用矩估计法对尺度参数和位置参数进行估计。The scale parameter and the location parameter can be estimated using the method of moments estimation.
一阶矩(数学期望)计算公式为:The first-order moment (mathematical expectation) is calculated as:
其中:y≈0.57722,二阶矩(方差)计算公式为:Among them: y≈0.57722, the second-order moment (variance) calculation formula is:
由此得到尺度参数a的计算公式为:The calculation formula of the scale parameter a is thus obtained:
位置参数u的计算公式为:The calculation formula of the position parameter u is:
则N年一遇的极大值风速xP出现的概率为保证率,其计算公式为:Then the probability of occurrence of the maximum wind speed x P that occurs once in N years is the guarantee rate, and its calculation formula is:
P(xp)=P(Vf>xP)=1-P(Vf≤xp)=1-F(xp)P(x p )=P(V f >x P )=1-P(V f ≤x p )=1-F(x p )
式中,P(xp)为N年一遇极大值风速出现的概率;In the formula, P(x p ) is the probability of occurrence of the maximum wind speed once in N years;
利用台风登陆前24h的逐小时预测数据,以地理距离最近为准,为每个杆塔 匹配风速点,并把每个杆塔作为新的风速点,风速点的精度可达到1km×1km。 基于极值I型概率分布,以风速点为单位模拟预测风场的分布,假设每个阵风点 处不同时间的最大阵风Vf满足极值I型概率分布,用Vf计算a和u,为每个风速 点拟合一个极值I型分布,实现风场分布模拟;Using the hourly forecast data 24 hours before the typhoon landed, matching the wind speed point for each tower based on the nearest geographical distance, and using each tower as a new wind speed point, the accuracy of the wind speed point can reach 1km × 1km. Based on the extreme value type I probability distribution, the distribution of the predicted wind field is simulated in units of wind speed points. Assuming that the maximum gust V f at each gust point at different times satisfies the extreme value type I probability distribution, use V f to calculate a and u, as Each wind speed point is fitted with an extreme value I-type distribution to realize the simulation of wind field distribution;
步骤3中所述随机森林法的过程如下:The process of random forest method described in step 3 is as follows:
随机森林算法的输入为:The input to the random forest algorithm is:
V*、V′*、T*、H*、A*、S*、P*、U*、R*;V*, V′*, T*, H*, A*, S*, P*, U*, R*;
输出为:The output is:
损毁状态为Y*=1的概率;The probability that the damaged state is Y*=1;
步骤3中所述蒙特卡罗法的具体过程如下:The specific process of the Monte Carlo method described in step 3 is as follows:
当基于极值I型概率分布确定后,用蒙特卡罗方法随机抽取风速,并在每次 随机风场下,假设每个风速点的风速具有相对独立性,则整个风场的分布可简化 为单个风速点处的阵风分布,由于风速点已经匹配到杆塔坐标处,因此风速点处 损毁概率实际上就是输电线路的损毁概率;When determined based on the extreme value I-type probability distribution, the Monte Carlo method is used to randomly extract the wind speed, and in each random wind field, assuming that the wind speed of each wind speed point is relatively independent, the distribution of the entire wind field can be simplified as For the gust distribution at a single wind speed point, since the wind speed point has been matched to the coordinates of the tower, the damage probability at the wind speed point is actually the damage probability of the transmission line;
在N个风速点上依均匀分布随机生成M次风速,定义第i个风速点处第j 次风速为Vi,j,其中,i=1,2,...,N为风速点的序列,j=1,2,...,M为随机样本的 序列,设置N=83973,M=50,同时利用拟合好的极值I型概率分布计算每个随 机风速出现的概率P(Vf=Vi,j);M times wind speeds are randomly generated according to uniform distribution at N wind speed points, and the jth wind speed at the ith wind speed point is defined as Vi ,j , where i=1,2,...,N is the sequence of wind speed points , j=1,2,...,M is the sequence of random samples, set N=83973, M=50, and use the fitted extreme value I-type probability distribution to calculate the probability P(V f =V i,j );
步骤3中所述计算损毁概率为:The calculated damage probability described in step 3 is:
在每次随机风场下,利用RF法计算杆塔的损毁概率f(xi|Vf=Vi,j),其中, xi为风速点i处的特征向量,Vf为xi的风速分量,根据蒙特卡罗法,该风速点处 的杆塔损毁概率相当于M次预测结果的平均值,每个风速点处的杆塔损毁概率计 算公式为:In each random wind field, the RF method is used to calculate the damage probability f of the tower ( xi |V f =V i,j ), where x i is the eigenvector at the wind speed point i, and V f is the wind speed of x i component, according to the Monte Carlo method, the damage probability of the tower at this wind speed point is equivalent to the average value of the M prediction results, and the calculation formula of the damage probability of the tower at each wind speed point is:
式中:M为总抽样次数,Vi,j为风速点i处第j次生成的风速。使用ArcGIS10.4.1 对结果进行可视化,得到附图2所示预测风场下损毁概率混合预测模型损毁预测。In the formula: M is the total sampling times, V i,j is the wind speed generated at the jth time at the wind speed point i. Use ArcGIS10.4.1 to visualize the results, and obtain the damage prediction of the mixed prediction model of damage probability under the predicted wind field shown in Figure 2.
步骤4,根据损毁概率进行风险指标计算,进行灾后抢修。Step 4: Calculate the risk index according to the probability of damage, and carry out emergency repair after the disaster.
步骤4中所述风险指标计算的步骤如下:The steps for calculating the risk indicator described in step 4 are as follows:
设置损毁概率0.5为阈值,Pi>0.5认为杆塔损毁,Pi<0.5表示杆塔不损毁, 设备损毁单位数的平均值Num计算公式为:The damage probability is set to 0.5 as the threshold value, P i >0.5 means the tower is damaged, P i <0.5 means the tower is not damaged, and the calculation formula of the average Num of equipment damage units is:
修复时间的平均值TRe计算公式为:The formula for calculating the average repair time T Re is:
修复费用的平均值C计算公式为:The formula for calculating the average value C of the repair cost is:
人力需求的平均值L计算公式为:The formula for calculating the average value L of manpower requirements is:
抢修车辆需求的平均值V计算公式为:The calculation formula of the average value V of the demand for emergency repair vehicles is:
式中,t为单位设备修复时长;c为单位修复费用;m为单位设备所需人力;v 为单位修复费用;均由历史统计数据得出;[·]为向上取整函数,I(·)为指示函数, 定义如下:In the formula, t is the repair time per unit of equipment; c is the repair cost per unit; m is the manpower required per unit of equipment; v is the repair cost per unit; ) is the indicator function, which is defined as follows:
步骤4中所述进行灾后抢修为:The post-disaster repairs described in Step 4 are:
统计t=0.001124,m=1.21231,v=0.18320,c=0.28165。得到各风速点的损 毁概率Pi后,同时风险指标Num、C、L、V可以指导防灾减灾部门进行设备、费 用、人员、车辆资源的预调配,并根据TRe指标发布停电时长预警信息,本例得 到风险指标Num=40,TRe=0.45,M=49,V=8,C=11.266。Statistics t=0.001124, m=1.21231, v=0.18320, c=0.28165. After obtaining the damage probability Pi of each wind speed point, at the same time, the risk indicators Num, C, L, and V can guide the disaster prevention and mitigation department to pre-allocate equipment, expenses, personnel, and vehicle resources, and release the power outage duration warning information according to the T Re index. , the risk index Num=40, T Re =0.45, M=49, V=8, C=11.266 are obtained in this example.
应当理解的是,上述针对较佳实施例的描述较为详细,并不能因此而认为是 对本发明专利保护范围的限制,本领域的普通技术人员在本发明的启示下,在不 脱离本发明权利要求所保护的范围情况下,还可以做出替换或变形,均落入本发 明的保护范围之内,本发明的请求保护范围应以所附权利要求为准。It should be understood that the above description of the preferred embodiments is relatively detailed, and therefore should not be considered as a limitation on the scope of the patent protection of the present invention. In the case of the protection scope, substitutions or deformations can also be made, which all fall within the protection scope of the present invention, and the claimed protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the appended claims.
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