[go: up one dir, main page]

CN110019401A - Part amount prediction technique, device, equipment and its storage medium - Google Patents

Part amount prediction technique, device, equipment and its storage medium Download PDF

Info

Publication number
CN110019401A
CN110019401A CN201711426164.0A CN201711426164A CN110019401A CN 110019401 A CN110019401 A CN 110019401A CN 201711426164 A CN201711426164 A CN 201711426164A CN 110019401 A CN110019401 A CN 110019401A
Authority
CN
China
Prior art keywords
data
model
time
prediction
obtains
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Granted
Application number
CN201711426164.0A
Other languages
Chinese (zh)
Other versions
CN110019401B (en
Inventor
张颖芳
王栋
王本玉
金晶
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
SF Technology Co Ltd
Original Assignee
SF Technology Co Ltd
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by SF Technology Co Ltd filed Critical SF Technology Co Ltd
Priority to CN201711426164.0A priority Critical patent/CN110019401B/en
Publication of CN110019401A publication Critical patent/CN110019401A/en
Application granted granted Critical
Publication of CN110019401B publication Critical patent/CN110019401B/en
Active legal-status Critical Current
Anticipated expiration legal-status Critical

Links

Classifications

    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F16/00Information retrieval; Database structures therefor; File system structures therefor
    • G06F16/20Information retrieval; Database structures therefor; File system structures therefor of structured data, e.g. relational data
    • G06F16/24Querying
    • G06F16/245Query processing
    • G06F16/2458Special types of queries, e.g. statistical queries, fuzzy queries or distributed queries
    • G06F16/2465Query processing support for facilitating data mining operations in structured databases
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F16/00Information retrieval; Database structures therefor; File system structures therefor
    • G06F16/20Information retrieval; Database structures therefor; File system structures therefor of structured data, e.g. relational data
    • G06F16/24Querying
    • G06F16/245Query processing
    • G06F16/2458Special types of queries, e.g. statistical queries, fuzzy queries or distributed queries
    • G06F16/2474Sequence data queries, e.g. querying versioned data
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F16/00Information retrieval; Database structures therefor; File system structures therefor
    • G06F16/20Information retrieval; Database structures therefor; File system structures therefor of structured data, e.g. relational data
    • G06F16/24Querying
    • G06F16/245Query processing
    • G06F16/2458Special types of queries, e.g. statistical queries, fuzzy queries or distributed queries
    • G06F16/2477Temporal data queries
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F2216/00Indexing scheme relating to additional aspects of information retrieval not explicitly covered by G06F16/00 and subgroups
    • G06F2216/03Data mining

Landscapes

  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Databases & Information Systems (AREA)
  • Computational Linguistics (AREA)
  • Software Systems (AREA)
  • Probability & Statistics with Applications (AREA)
  • Data Mining & Analysis (AREA)
  • Mathematical Physics (AREA)
  • General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Fuzzy Systems (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)

Abstract

This application discloses part amount prediction technique, device, equipment and its storage mediums.This method comprises: within the scope of first time history waybill data and external data handle, obtain data processed result;It is trained using data processed result, obtains depth residual error network foundation model;The basic model is updated using the history waybill data in the second time range, obtains prediction model to determine the prediction part amount of target wave time.Technical solution provided by the embodiments of the present application overcomes and individually models the problem for causing maintenance cost excessively high for single site in the prior art;And by the dimension-reduction treatment to history waybill data, after period, trend study processing, training obtains part amount of the depth residual error network model to predict non-incoming wave time, improves the precision of prediction result.Basic model also is updated by way of rolling more new data, to greatly reduce consumption and the time overhead of computing resource.

Description

Part amount prediction technique, device, equipment and its storage medium
Technical field
Present application relates generally to computer fields, and in particular to data mining processing technology field more particularly to part amount are pre- Survey method, apparatus, equipment and its storage medium.
Background technique
Important tie of the logistics field as connection socio-economic development and social life, the data mining based on the field Belong to emerging research field, the development of big data technology brings new opportunity to logistic industry, reasonably uses big data Technology plays a positive role to management and the decision of logistic industry, customer relationship maintenance, resource distribution etc..
In the prior art, the recurrent neural network in time series models (recurrent neural network, RNN) It applies in logistic industry, sends part amount information for predict site.For example, the time sequence forecasting method based on Generalized Additive Models can It is predicted with the part amount daily to each site, but this prediction mode has that data volume is big there are wave time part amount prediction, Part amount mean value is small, the big problem of prediction error.And that there are dot datas is more for existing prediction mode, separately modeling will lead to number According to the problems such as sparse, maintenance cost is excessively high.Furthermore, it is contemplated that the factors such as festivals or holidays, extreme weather and time dynamic It influences, the model established based on dot data, it is understood that there may be data dithering is larger, and model performance is unstable, and models speed The problems such as degree is slow time-consuming high.
It would therefore be highly desirable to propose the new prediction model of one kind to solve the above problems.
Summary of the invention
In view of drawbacks described above in the prior art or deficiency, it is intended to provide a kind of based on depth residual error neural network forecast target wave The scheme of secondary part amount.
In a first aspect, the embodiment of the present application provides a kind of amount prediction technique, this method comprises:
To within the scope of first time history waybill data and external data handle, obtain data processed result;
It is trained using data processed result, obtains depth residual error network foundation model;
The basic model is updated using the history waybill data in the second time range, obtains prediction model to determine target The prediction part amount of wave time.
Second aspect, the embodiment of the present application provide a kind of amount prediction meanss, which includes:
Data processing unit, within the scope of first time history waybill data and external data handle, obtain To data processed result;
It creates basic model unit and obtains depth residual error network foundation mould for being trained using data processed result Type;
Predicting unit is updated to obtain for updating the basic model using the history waybill data in the second time range Prediction model determines the prediction part amount of target wave time.
The third aspect, the embodiment of the present application provide a kind of equipment, including processor, storage device;
Aforementioned storage device, for storing one or more programs;
When aforementioned one or more programs are executed by aforementioned processor, so that aforementioned processor realizes that the embodiment of the present application is retouched The method stated.
Fourth aspect, the embodiment of the present application provide a kind of computer readable storage medium, are stored thereon with computer journey Sequence when aforementioned computer program is executed by processor, realizes the method that the embodiment of the present application describes.
Part amount prediction scheme provided by the embodiments of the present application, by relevant to wave time part amount prediction to data processing extraction Important attribute data, and learn wave secondary period, trend characteristic from history waybill data using LSTM model, and for wave The secondary influential external data of part amount, the polymerization training depth residual error network foundation model based on these information, which can The training time is reduced, the efficiency of lift scheme creation.Further, basic model is updated by way of rolling forecast also to predict The part amount of target wave time can relatively accurately predict following wave time part amount.The embodiment of the present application, it is also multiple not by training Same more new model carries out cross validation, the stability of Lai Tisheng prediction result.
According to the technical solution of the embodiment of the present application, overcoming individually to model for single site in the prior art causes to safeguard The excessively high problem of cost, and by the dimension-reduction treatment to history waybill data, after period, trend study processing, training obtains depth Part amount of the degree residual error network model to predict non-incoming wave time, improves the precision of prediction result.Also number is updated by rolling According to mode update basic model, greatly reduce consumption and the time overhead of computing resource.
Detailed description of the invention
By reading a detailed description of non-restrictive embodiments in the light of the attached drawings below, the application's is other Feature, objects and advantages will become more apparent upon:
Fig. 1 shows the flow diagram of part amount prediction technique provided by the embodiments of the present application;
Fig. 2 shows the flow diagrams for the part amount prediction technique that the another embodiment of the application provides;
Fig. 3 shows the schematic illustration of Data Dimensionality Reduction processing;
Fig. 4 shows the schematic illustration of periodic law and recent trend study;
Fig. 5 shows the schematic illustration of single time series study;
Fig. 6 shows the schematic illustration of depth residual error network foundation model;
Fig. 7 shows the structural schematic diagram of part amount prediction meanss provided by the embodiments of the present application;
Fig. 8 shows the structural schematic diagram for the part amount prediction meanss that the another embodiment of the application provides;
Fig. 9 shows the structural schematic diagram for being suitable for the computer system for the terminal device for being used to realize the embodiment of the present application.
Specific embodiment
The application is described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.It is understood that this place is retouched The specific embodiment stated is used only for explaining related invention, rather than the restriction to the invention.It also should be noted that in order to Convenient for description, part relevant to invention is illustrated only in attached drawing.
It should be noted that in the absence of conflict, the features in the embodiments and the embodiments of the present application can phase Mutually combination.The application is described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and in conjunction with the embodiments.
Referring to FIG. 1, Fig. 1 shows the flow diagram of part amount prediction technique provided by the embodiments of the present application.
As shown in Figure 1, this method comprises:
Step 101, within the scope of first time history waybill data and external data handle, obtain data processing As a result.
In the embodiment of the present application, in data preparation stage, the history waybill data and external number of setting time range are obtained According to, and be used to establish model after handling these data.The data resource of logistic industry, can be from logistics number compared with horn of plenty It is handled according to middle extraction history waybill data.In order to overcome dot data amount big, part amount mean value is small, and prediction error is big to ask Topic can create model with all dot datas of a city (or business district), predict site by unified Modeling Wave time part amount.
Setting time may range from first time range, and the value of first time range can be to be set as unit of year It sets.For example, with 2 years history waybill data instances.2 years history waybill data are obtained, extracting influences in history waybill data The characteristic attribute data of wave time part amount, and it is used to training pattern after handling characteristic attribute data.Wherein, characteristic attribute number According to including: number node data, month data, day data, week data, wave time part amount data etc..
Dimension-reduction treatment is carried out to characteristic attribute data, helps to extract representative strong characteristic attribute.By dimension-reduction treatment Data afterwards are more advantageous to extraction effective information, improve the efficiency of data processing convenient for calculating and visualizing.
The linear mapping of the normal method of dimension-reduction treatment and Nonlinear Mapping.For example, can be used in deep learning model Embedding mode processing feature attribute data, is mapped to feature space.
The embodiment of the present application learns history waybill data using deep learning model, so that obtaining can embody The time series of data development trend.The part amount data of site have stronger periodicity, are transported using deep learning model from history This regularity is extracted in forms data, the wave time part amount of some following period is predicted for creating basic model.
For example, learning using deep learning model to history waybill data, the time sequence of rule reaction time is extracted The time series of column and recent trend.Cycle time sequence, the time series such as unit of week, trend time series, such as 28 Its trend time series.Deep learning model in the embodiment of the present application can be deep learning shot and long term memory models (LSTM) model or other neural network models and other can be used in the model of learning data rule.Preferably, The embodiment of the present application selected depth Chief Learning Officer, CLO's short-term memory model (LSTM) model.
The embodiment of the present application, it is contemplated that part has also been introduced in modeling process to the influence degree of part amount in external factor External data enhances the precision of model.For example, technical dates data, weather data etc..
Step 102, it is trained using data processed result, obtains depth residual error network foundation model.
The embodiment of the present application constructs model using result after data processing.It is obtaining after data processing Result training pattern before, to data, treated as a result, it is desirable to carry out polymerization processing, and the result of polymerization processing is input to It is trained in the deep learning model of building.For example, by Jing Guo dimension-reduction treatment characteristic attribute data and periodic law when Between the time series and external data of sequence and recent trend carry out polymerization processing, obtain the result of polymerization processing.Utilize polymerization The result of processing trains deep learning model.The embodiment of the present application, it is preferable that with depth residual error network model be basic mould Type, the basic model may include multiple residual error modules.In the embodiment of the present application, pass through the less neural network of residual error network Layer obtains preferably as a result, reducing the training time.
Step 103, aforementioned base model is updated using the history waybill data in the second time range, obtains prediction model To determine the prediction part amount of target wave time.
The embodiment of the present application, using more new data come re -training basic model, obtains after creating basic model New prediction model, to predict the wave time part amount of future time section using prediction model.Optionally, according to rolling forecast Mode more new data.For example, the data group compound training data set that fetching portion history part amount data and part newly obtain, to base Plinth model is updated month by month, to predict the wave time part amount data of some following period.
Wherein, the definition of wave time, it can be understood as the operation batch in the unit time, the unit time can be every 30 points Zhong Weiyi wave is also possible to be divided according to the operation or work standard of practical industry.According to the different classes of of waybill, to wave time data The mode handled is different.For example, waybill type, which can be divided into, sends part class, there are order addressee class, no order addressee class etc., In, wave defined in part class time to be sent, will be divided within whole day 24 hours 35 waves, the 1st wave time is 0 point to 7 points of morning, the 2nd A wave time is 7 points to 7:30 minute, and the 3rd wave time assigns at 8 points for 7:30, and so on to generate a wave every half an hour secondary, one It assigns at 0 point until the 35th wave is secondary for 23:30, the wave time data for sending part class is handled, so that part amount data more meet industry Be engaged in scene, for example, by the part amount data accumulation of the previous day 21 points to 9 points of the next morning of each wave time to second day the 5th A wave.
For another example, there is wave defined in order addressee class, it is similar to part class is sent, 35 waves were divided by whole day 24 hours, But the wave for having order addressee class time data are handled, for example, by the 4th of the 31st wave of the previous day secondary to second day the The part amount data accumulation of a wave time to second day the 4th wave is secondary.For another example, no order addressee class, it is similar to part class is sent, by whole day 35 waves are divided within 24 hours, still, the wave time data of no order addressee class are handled, for example, by the previous day the 35th The 26th wave time that a wave time is evenly distributed to the previous day to the secondary part amount data of second day the 3rd wave is secondary to the 34th wave.
Prediction of the embodiment of the present application by deep learning to wave time part amount, there is performance preferably, can be more accurate Ground predicts the part amount of each wave time, greatly improves prediction effect.The embodiment of the present application is remembered using deep learning shot and long term Network (LSTM) model excavates the changing pattern in time series, both considers long term variations, while considering that Recent Changes become Gesture reduces the model training time, improves the efficiency of model creation by creating depth residual error network foundation model.And lead to The mode for crossing rolling forecast updates basic model, and it is slow, time-consuming to overcome conventional time series model creation speed in the prior art High problem.
Referring to FIG. 2, the flow diagram of the part amount prediction technique provided Fig. 2 shows the another embodiment of the application.
As shown in Fig. 2, this method comprises:
Step 201, within the scope of first time history waybill data and external data handle, obtain data processing As a result.
In the embodiment of the present application, in data preparation stage, the history waybill data and external number of setting time range are obtained According to, and be used to establish model after handling these data.Setting time may range from first time range, at the first time The value of range can be to be arranged as unit of year.
For history waybill data, the characteristic attribute data for influencing wave time part amount are obtained, are needed from history waybill data Middle extraction characteristic attribute data, and characteristic attribute data are handled, obtain the first processing result.
For example, with 2 months -2017 years 2 months 2015 history waybill data instances.From the history waybill data of this period It is middle to extract the characteristic attribute data for influencing wave time part amount.Wherein, characteristic attribute data include: number node data, month data, Day data, week data, wave time part amount data etc..Optionally, as shown in figure 3, by respectively by number node data, month Polymerization generates identification information after data, day data, week data, wave time part amount data carry out embedding processing respectively, i.e., in fact The dimension-reduction treatment of existing characteristic attribute data.
For history waybill data, the data variation rule characteristic for influencing wave time part amount is obtained, is needed based on depth It practises model and periodic law study is carried out to institute's history waybill data, obtain multiple first time sequences, and when by institute multiple first Between sequential polymerization be cycle time sequence;Equally, the history waybill data are carried out based on aforementioned depth learning model recent Trend study, obtains trend time series.Deep learning model in the embodiment of the present application can be deep learning shot and long term note Recall model (LSTM) model or other neural network models and other can be used in the model of learning data rule.It is excellent Selection of land, the embodiment of the present application selected depth Chief Learning Officer, CLO's short-term memory model (LSTM) model.
For example, excavating time series using LSTM model to 2 months -2017 years 2 months 2015 history waybill data with anti- Reflect the cycle variation law and Near-future Development Trend rule of data.As shown in figure 4, history waybill data are input to LSTM model In, it extracts history cycle time series and carries out polymerization as cycle time sequence.History waybill data are input to LSTM model, Historical trending time sequence is extracted as trend time series.
Wherein, history cycle time series is extracted using history waybill data, as shown in figure 5, if extracting history waybill The time series on some Monday temporally recalls mode on the basis of the Monday in data, before extracting the Monday 12 weeks Monday data are separately input to be handled in LSTM module, after 64 layers of full articulamentum processing, are output to 32 layers of full articulamentum processing, to generate the time series on the Monday.
Wherein, trend time series is extracted using history waybill data, as shown in figure 5, before specified time being extracted 28 days data generate trend time series.
The embodiment of the present application introduces external data in data processing stage further to analyze the variation of wave time part amount.It is right External data is identified processing, obtains second processing result.
There are many modes for obtaining external data.For example, being extracted from internal data, or obtained by external data resource It takes.It to the external data of acquisition, needs to be further processed, is converted into the feature for influencing wave time part amount.The application is implemented The external data extracted in example can be technical dates data and weather data.Wherein, technical dates includes that the legal section in part is false Day and part technical dates, for example, New Year's Day, the Spring Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival, Clear and Bright, May Day, mid-autumn, National Day, double 11, double ten second-class.To spy The processing of different date data, it can be understood as with New Year's Day, the Spring Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival, Clear and Bright, May Day, mid-autumn, National Day, double 11, double 12 For column, date data is row, and the value range of data is [- 15,16] in each column.It is with the Spring Festival (i.e. the lunar New Year's Day of the lunar calendar) Example, use 16 indicate 15 days before and after the date be not the Spring Festival, -15 indicate that there are also 15 days be the Spring Festival, and on the day of 0 indicates the Spring Festival, 15 are indicated The Spring Festival passes by 15 days.By being identified processing to technical dates, technical dates and wave time part amount can be preferably excavated Between influence relationship.
Processing for weather data, it can be understood as the case where indicating weather with numerical value, such as indicate the numerical value of weather Range is { -2,0,2 }, wherein -2 indicate exceedingly odious weather, 2 indicate sunny, mends 0 when uncertain or normal.It is right The processing of weather data, in order to preferably analyze influence of the weather conditions to wave time part amount.
After handling technical dates data and weather data, polymerization generates external data.
Optionally, step 201 can also include:
Step 2011, characteristic attribute data are extracted from history waybill data, and characteristic attribute data are handled, and are obtained To the first processing result;
Step 2012, periodic law study is carried out to history waybill data based on deep learning model, obtains multiple first Time series, and be cycle time sequence by multiple first time sequential polymerizations;
Step 2013, recent trend study is carried out to history waybill data based on deep learning model, obtains the trend time Sequence;
Step 2014, processing is identified to external data, obtains second processing as a result, said external data include special Date data and/or weather data.
Step 202, it is trained using data processed result, obtains depth residual error network foundation model.
Data processed result is obtained after handling history part amount data, data processed result polymerization is handled, is used In training depth residual error network foundation model.
In the embodiment of the present application, by the first processing result, cycle time sequence, trend time series and second processing result It is polymerize, obtains polymerization result.Polymerization result is input to depth residual error network model, is trained.The depth residual error net Network model may include multiple residual error modules.As shown in fig. 6, by the first processing result, cycle time sequence, trend time series Depth residual error network foundation model is input to the polymerization of second processing result.The depth residual error network foundation model includes 3 residual Difference module.Each residual error module is built-up by a full articulamentum progress residual error study.
Optionally, step 202, comprising:
Step 2021, aggregated data processing result obtains polymerization result;
Step 2022, it is trained using polymerization result, obtains depth residual error network foundation model.
Wherein step 2021 further include: by processing result, multiple time serieses, the second time series and second processing result Polymerization, obtains polymerization result.
Step 203, aforementioned base model is updated using the history waybill data in the second time range, obtains prediction model To determine the prediction part amount of target wave time.
The time of the existing each every wave in site time of time series models training is longer, and generally higher than 20 minutes, daily About 30 waves of wave time.As it can be seen that the training time that existing time series models expend is too long, lead to the forecasting efficiency of model It is lower.For the variation for more effectively predicting non-incoming wave time part amount, need to construct the better model of more new capability, for promoting work Efficiency.
The embodiment of the present application constructs depth residual error network foundation model, to the basic model, Ke Yitong in step 202 The mode of setting rolling forecast is crossed, to update the basic model.
For example, updating the basic model using the history waybill data in the second time range.Second time range is set Setting can adjust according to data more new state dynamic.For example, prediction target is in March, 2017, then the second time range can be set It is set to 2 months -2017 years in October, 2016.If prediction target is in April, 2017, the second time range can be set to 2016 In March, -2017 in November year.Alternatively, further reducing time range, such as predict that target is in March, 2017, then the second time model It encloses and can be set to 2 months -2017 years in December, 2016.
The selection of the second time range is the mode monthly rolled in the embodiment of the present application, chooses the model of setting time span It encloses.The time span can be the integral multiple of calendar month.For example, 3 months or 5 months.
After the history waybill data for obtaining the second time range, by the history waybill data further division of this period At training dataset and validation data set.And re -training is carried out to basic model to update basic mould using training dataset Type inputs updated basic model based on validation data set to obtain the wave of prediction time part amount, by dividing training dataset With the mode of validation data set cross validation, to prevent updated model from overfitting problem occur.
Step 203, optionally, comprising:
Step 2031, the history waybill data of the second time range of prediction target wave time are determined;
Step 2032, the history waybill data of the second time range are divided into training dataset and validation data set;
Step 2033, using training dataset re -training depth residual error network foundation model, prediction model is obtained;
Step 2034, validation data set is input to prediction model, obtains the prediction part amount of target wave time.
For example, the second time range is 5 months by taking the wave time part amount for predicting in March, 2017 as an example, that is, choose 2016 10 The history waybill data of 2 months -2017 years moon.History waybill data are divided into training dataset and validation data set.
For example, { in January, -2017 in October, 2016 } is training dataset, { 2 months 2017 } are validation data set;
Basic model is trained with training dataset, the basic model updated, indicates referred to as pre- for difference Survey model;Validation data set is input to prediction model, obtains prediction result, as the prediction part amount of target wave time.
Optionally, the embodiment of the present application by adjusting training set and is tested in order to further enhance the stability of prediction result The multiple basic models of training for demonstrate,proving data set carry out cross validation to realize the prediction of wave time part amount.
Optionally, step 2032, can also include:
In the history waybill data of the second time range, multiple validation data sets are dynamically specified, and mark off multiple With the one-to-one training dataset of the validation data set.
Optionally, step 2033, can also include:
Multiple training datasets are inputted into depth residual error network foundation model re -training respectively, obtain multiple and training number Depth residual error Network Prediction Model is corresponded according to collection.
Optionally, step 2034, can also include:
It will be inputted respectively with the one-to-one validation data set of multiple training datasets a pair of with multiple training datasets one The depth residual error network model answered obtains multiple prediction part amounts;
Calculate the average value of multiple prediction part amounts, the prediction part amount as target wave time.
For example, the second time range is 5 months by taking the wave time part amount for predicting in March, 2017 as an example, that is, choose 2016 10 The history waybill data of 2 months -2017 years moon.
The history waybill data in 2 months -2017 years in October, 2016 are divided into 3 kinds of different training datasets and verifying number According to collection.
For example, { in January, -2017 in October, 2016 } is the first training dataset, { 2 months 2017 } are first verification data Collection;
{ in October, -2016 in December, 2016,2 months 2017 } is the second training dataset, and { in January, 2017 } tests for second Demonstrate,prove data set;
{ October in November, 2016-,-2 months in January, 2017 } is third training dataset, and { in December, 2016 } tests for third Demonstrate,prove data set.
Basic model is trained with the first training dataset, the basic model updated, indicates to be referred to as difference For the first prediction model;First verification data collection is input to the first prediction model, obtains the first prediction result.
Basic model is trained with the second training dataset, the basic model updated, indicates to be referred to as difference For the second prediction model;First verification data collection is input to the second prediction model, obtains the second prediction result.
Basic model is trained with third training dataset, the basic model updated, indicates to be referred to as difference For third prediction model;First verification data collection is input to the second prediction model, obtains third prediction result.
Finally, the first prediction result, the second prediction result and the second prediction result are averaged, final prediction is obtained As a result.
It should be noted that although describing the operation of the method for the present invention in the accompanying drawings with particular order, this is not required that Or hint must execute these operations in this particular order, or have to carry out operation shown in whole and be just able to achieve the phase The result of prestige.On the contrary, the step of describing in flow chart can change and execute sequence.For example, based on deep learning model to history Waybill data carry out periodic law study, obtain multiple first time sequences, and are the period by multiple first time sequential polymerizations The step of time series, and recent trend study is carried out to history waybill data based on deep learning model, obtain the trend time The step of sequence.Additionally or alternatively, it is convenient to omit multiple steps are merged into a step and executed by certain steps, and/or One step is decomposed into execution of multiple steps.For example, being trained using data processed result, depth residual error network base is obtained Plinth model, comprising: aggregated data processing result obtains polymerization result;It is trained using polymerization result, obtains depth residual error net Network basic model.
Referring to FIG. 7, Fig. 7 shows the structural schematic diagram of part amount prediction meanss provided by the embodiments of the present application.
As shown in fig. 7, the device 700 includes:
Data processing unit 701, within the scope of first time history waybill data and external data handle, Obtain data processed result.
In the embodiment of the present application, in data preparation stage, the history waybill data and external number of setting time range are obtained According to, and be used to establish model after handling these data.The data resource of logistic industry, can be from logistics number compared with horn of plenty It is handled according to middle extraction history waybill data.In order to overcome the problems, such as that dot data is sparse, can with a city (or business Area) all dot datas create model, predict by unified Modeling the wave time part amount of site.
Setting time may range from first time range, and the value of first time range can be to be set as unit of year It sets.For example, with 2 years history waybill data instances.2 years history waybill data are obtained, extracting influences in history waybill data The characteristic attribute data of wave time part amount, and it is used to training pattern after handling characteristic attribute data.Wherein, characteristic attribute number According to including: number node data, month data, day data, week data, wave time part amount data etc..
Dimension-reduction treatment is carried out to characteristic attribute data, helps to extract representative strong characteristic attribute.By dimension-reduction treatment Data afterwards are more advantageous to extraction effective information, improve the efficiency of data processing convenient for calculating and visualizing.
The linear mapping of the normal method of dimension-reduction treatment and Nonlinear Mapping.For example, can be used in deep learning model Embedding mode processing feature attribute data, is mapped to feature space.
The embodiment of the present application learns history waybill data using deep learning model, so that obtaining can embody The time series of data development trend.The part amount data of site have stronger periodicity, are transported using deep learning model from history This regularity is extracted in forms data, the wave time part amount of some following period is predicted for creating basic model.
For example, learning using deep learning model to history waybill data, the time sequence of rule reaction time is extracted The time series of column and recent trend.The time series of periodic law, the time series such as unit of week, recent trend when Between sequence, the time series such as unit of the moon.Deep learning model in the embodiment of the present application, can be deep learning length Phase memory models (LSTM) model or other neural network models and other can be used in the mould of learning data rule Type.Preferably, the embodiment of the present application selected depth Chief Learning Officer, CLO short-term memory model (LSTM) model.
The embodiment of the present application, it is contemplated that part has also been introduced in modeling process to the influence degree of part amount in external factor External data enhances the precision of model.For example, technical dates data, weather data etc..
It creates basic model unit 702 and obtains depth residual error network foundation for being trained using data processed result Model.
The embodiment of the present application constructs model using result after data processing.It is obtaining after data processing Result training pattern before, to data, treated as a result, it is desirable to carry out polymerization processing, and the result of polymerization processing is input to It is trained in the deep learning model of building.For example, by Jing Guo dimension-reduction treatment characteristic attribute data and periodic law when Between the time series and external data of sequence and recent trend carry out polymerization processing, obtain the result of polymerization processing.Utilize polymerization The result of processing trains deep learning model.The embodiment of the present application, it is preferable that with depth residual error network model be basic mould Type, the basic model may include in multiple residual error module the embodiment of the present application by the less neural net layer of residual error network It obtains preferably as a result, reducing the training time.
Predicting unit 703 is updated, for updating aforementioned base model using the history waybill data in the second time range, Prediction model is obtained to determine the prediction part amount of target wave time.
The embodiment of the present application, using more new data come re -training basic model, obtains after creating basic model New prediction model, to predict the wave time part amount of future time section using prediction model.Optionally, according to rolling forecast Mode more new data.For example, the data group compound training data set that fetching portion history part amount data and part newly obtain, to base Plinth model is updated month by month, to predict the wave time part amount data of some following period.
Wherein, the definition of wave time, it can be understood as the operation batch in the unit time, the unit time can be every 30 points Zhong Weiyi wave is also possible to be divided according to the operation or work standard of practical industry.According to the different classes of of waybill, to wave time data The mode handled is different.For example, waybill type, which can be divided into, sends part class, there are order addressee class, no order addressee class etc., In, wave defined in part class time to be sent, will be divided within whole day 24 hours 35 waves, the 1st wave time is 0 point to 7 points of morning, the 2nd A wave time is 7 points to 7:30 minute, and the 3rd wave time assigns at 8 points for 7:30, and so on to generate a wave every half an hour secondary, one It assigns at 0 point until the 35th wave is secondary for 23:30, the wave time data for sending part class is handled, so that part amount data more meet industry Be engaged in scene, for example, by the part amount data accumulation of the previous day 21 points to 9 points of the next morning of each wave time to second day the 5th A wave.
For another example, there is wave defined in order addressee class, it is similar to part class is sent, 35 waves were divided by whole day 24 hours, But the wave for having order addressee class time data are handled, for example, by the 4th of the 31st wave of the previous day secondary to second day the The part amount data accumulation of a wave time to second day the 4th wave is secondary.For another example, no order addressee class, it is similar to part class is sent, by whole day 35 waves are divided within 24 hours, still, the wave time data of no order addressee class are handled, for example, by the previous day the 35th The 26th wave time that a wave time is evenly distributed to the previous day to the secondary part amount data of second day the 3rd wave is secondary to the 34th wave.
Prediction of the embodiment of the present application by deep learning to wave time part amount, there is performance preferably, can be more accurate Ground predicts the part amount of each wave time, greatly improves prediction effect.The embodiment of the present application is remembered using deep learning shot and long term Network (LSTM) model excavates the changing pattern in time series, both considers long term variations, while considering that Recent Changes become Gesture reduces the model training time, improves the efficiency of model creation by creating depth residual error network foundation model.And lead to The mode for crossing rolling forecast updates basic model, and it is slow, time-consuming to overcome conventional time series model creation speed in the prior art High problem.
Referring to FIG. 8, Fig. 8 shows the structural schematic diagram for the part amount prediction meanss that the another embodiment of the application provides.
As shown in figure 8, the device 800 includes:
Data processing unit 801, within the scope of first time history waybill data and external data handle, Obtain data processed result.
In the embodiment of the present application, in data preparation stage, the history waybill data and external number of setting time range are obtained According to, and be used to establish model after handling these data.Setting time may range from first time range, at the first time The value of range can be to be arranged as unit of year.
For history waybill data, the characteristic attribute data for influencing wave time part amount are obtained, are needed from history waybill data Middle extraction characteristic attribute data, and characteristic attribute data are handled, obtain the first processing result.
For example, with 2 months -2017 years 2 months 2015 history waybill data instances.From the history waybill data of this period It is middle to extract the characteristic attribute data for influencing wave time part amount.Wherein, characteristic attribute data include: number node data, month data, Day data, week data, wave time part amount data etc..Optionally, as shown in figure 3, by respectively by number node data, month Polymerization generates identification information after data, day data, week data, wave time part amount data carry out embedding processing respectively, i.e., in fact The dimension-reduction treatment of existing characteristic attribute data.
For history waybill data, the data variation rule characteristic for influencing wave time part amount is obtained, is needed based on depth It practises model and periodic law study is carried out to institute's history waybill data, obtain multiple first time sequences, and when by institute multiple first Between sequential polymerization be cycle time sequence;Equally, the history waybill data are carried out based on aforementioned depth learning model recent Trend study, obtains trend time series.Deep learning model in the embodiment of the present application can be deep learning shot and long term note Recall model (LSTM) model or other neural network models and other can be used in the model of learning data rule.It is excellent Selection of land, the embodiment of the present application selected depth Chief Learning Officer, CLO's short-term memory model (LSTM) model.
For example, excavating time series using LSTM model to 2 months -2017 years 2 months 2015 history waybill data with anti- Reflect the cycle variation law and Near-future Development Trend rule of data.As shown in figure 4, history waybill data are input to LSTM model In, it extracts history cycle time series and carries out polymerization as cycle information.History waybill data are input to LSTM model, are extracted Historical trending time sequence is as tendency information.
Wherein, history cycle time series is extracted using history waybill data, as shown in figure 5, if extracting history waybill The time series on some Monday temporally recalls mode on the basis of the Monday in data, before extracting the Monday 12 weeks Monday data are separately input to be handled in LSTM module, after 64 layers of full articulamentum processing, are output to 32 layers of full articulamentum processing, to generate the time series on the Monday.
The embodiment of the present application introduces external data in data processing stage further to analyze the variation of wave time part amount.It is right External data is identified processing, obtains second processing result.
There are many modes for the acquisition of external data.For example, being extracted from internal data, or obtained by external data resource It takes.It to the external data of acquisition, needs to be further processed, is converted into the feature for influencing wave time part amount.The application is implemented The external data extracted in example can be technical dates data and weather data.Wherein, technical dates includes that the legal section in part is false Day and part technical dates, for example, New Year's Day, the Spring Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival, Clear and Bright, May Day, mid-autumn, National Day, double 11, double ten second-class.To spy The processing of different date data, it can be understood as with New Year's Day, the Spring Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival, Clear and Bright, May Day, mid-autumn, National Day, double 11, double 12 For column, date data is row, and the value range of data is [- 15,16] in each column.It is with the Spring Festival (i.e. the lunar New Year's Day of the lunar calendar) Example, use 16 indicate 15 days before and after the date be not the Spring Festival, -15 indicate that there are also 15 days be the Spring Festival, and on the day of 0 indicates the Spring Festival, 15 are indicated The Spring Festival passes by 15 days.By being identified processing to technical dates, technical dates and wave time part amount can be preferably excavated Between influence relationship.
Processing for weather data, it can be understood as the case where indicating weather with numerical value, such as indicate the numerical value of weather Range is { -2,0,2 }, wherein -2 indicate exceedingly odious weather, 2 indicate sunny, mends 0 when uncertain or normal.It is right The processing of weather data, in order to preferably analyze influence of the weather conditions to wave time part amount.
After handling technical dates data and weather data, polymerization generates external information.
Optionally, data processing unit 801 can also include:
First processing subelement 8011, for extracting characteristic attribute data from history waybill data, and to characteristic attribute Data are handled, and the first processing result is obtained;
First time sequence generates subelement 8012, for carrying out the period to history waybill data based on deep learning model Rule study obtains multiple first time sequences, and is cycle time sequence by multiple first time sequential polymerizations;
Second time series generates subelement 8013, recent for being carried out based on deep learning model to history waybill data Trend study, obtains trend time series;
Second processing subelement 8014 is identified processing to external data, obtains second processing as a result, said external number According to including technical dates data and/or weather data.
Basic model unit 802 is created, is trained using data processed result, obtains depth residual error network foundation mould Type.
Data processed result is obtained after handling history part amount data, data processed result polymerization is handled, is used In training depth residual error network foundation model.
In the embodiment of the present application, by the first processing result, cycle time sequence, trend time series and second processing result Polymerization, obtains polymerization result.Polymerization result is input to depth residual error network model, is trained.The depth residual error network mould Type may include multiple residual error modules.As shown in fig. 6, by the first processing result, cycle time sequence, trend time series and The polymerization of two processing results is input to depth residual error network foundation model.The depth residual error network foundation model includes 3 residual error moulds Block.Each residual error module is built-up by a full articulamentum progress residual error study.
Optionally, basic model unit 802 is created, comprising:
It polymerize subelement 8021, is used for aggregated data processing result, obtains polymerization result;
Training subelement 8022 obtains depth residual error network foundation model for being trained using polymerization result.
Wherein polymerization subelement 8021 is also used to processing result, multiple first time sequences, the second time series and the The polymerization of two processing results, obtains polymerization result.
Predicting unit 803 is updated, for updating aforementioned base model using the history waybill data in the second time range, Prediction model is obtained to determine the prediction part amount of target wave time.
The time of the existing each every wave in site time of time series models training is longer, and generally higher than 20 minutes, daily About 30 waves of wave time.As it can be seen that the training time that existing time series models expend is too long, lead to the forecasting efficiency of model It is lower.For the variation for more effectively predicting non-incoming wave time part amount, need to construct the better model of more new capability, for promoting work Efficiency.
The embodiment of the present application constructs depth residual error network foundation model, to the basic model, Ke Yitong in step 202 The mode of setting rolling forecast is crossed, to update the basic model.
For example, updating the basic model using the history waybill data in the second time range.Second time range is set Setting can adjust according to data more new state dynamic.For example, prediction target is in March, 2017, then the second time range can be set It is set to 2 months -2017 years in October, 2016.If prediction target is in April, 2017, the second time range can be set to 2016 In March, -2017 in November year.Alternatively, further reducing time range, such as predict that target is in March, 2017, then the second time model It encloses and can be set to 2 months -2017 years in December, 2016.
The selection of the second time range is the mode monthly rolled in the embodiment of the present application, chooses the model of setting time span It encloses.The time span can be the integral multiple of calendar month.For example, 3 months or 5 months.
After the history waybill data for obtaining the second time range, by the history waybill data further division of this period At training dataset and validation data set.And re -training is carried out to basic model to update basic mould using training dataset Type inputs updated basic model based on validation data set to obtain the wave of prediction time part amount, by dividing training dataset With the mode of validation data set cross validation, to prevent updated model from overfitting problem occur.
Predicting unit 803 is updated, optionally, comprising:
Determine subelement 8031, the history waybill data of the second time range for determining prediction target wave time;
Data divide subelement 8032, for by the history waybill data of the second time range be divided into training dataset and Validation data set;
Subelement 8033 is updated, for utilizing training dataset re -training depth residual error network foundation model, is obtained pre- Survey model;
It predicts subelement 8034, for validation data set to be input to prediction model, obtains the prediction part amount of target wave time.
For example, the second time range is 5 months by taking the wave time part amount for predicting in March, 2017 as an example, that is, choose 2016 10 The history waybill data of 2 months -2017 years moon.History waybill data are divided into training dataset and validation data set.
For example, { in January, -2017 in October, 2016 } is training dataset, { 2 months 2017 } are validation data set;
Basic model is trained with training dataset, the basic model updated, indicates referred to as pre- for difference Survey model;Validation data set is input to prediction model, obtains prediction result, as the prediction part amount of target wave time.
Optionally, the embodiment of the present application by adjusting training set and is tested in order to further enhance the stability of prediction result The multiple basic models of training for demonstrate,proving data set carry out cross validation to realize the prediction of wave time part amount.
Optionally, data divide subelement 8032, are also used in the history waybill data of the second time range, dynamically Multiple validation data sets are specified, and mark off the multiple and one-to-one training dataset of the validation data set.
Optionally, subelement 8033 is updated, is also used to inputting multiple training datasets into depth residual error network foundation respectively Model re -training obtains multiple and training dataset and corresponds depth residual error Network Prediction Model.
Optionally, subelement 8034 is predicted, further includes:
Subelement is predicted, for that will input respectively with the one-to-one validation data set of multiple training datasets and multiple instructions Practice the one-to-one depth residual error network model of data set, obtains multiple prediction part amounts;
Computation subunit, the prediction part amount for calculating the average value of multiple prediction part amounts, as target wave time.
For example, the second time range is 5 months by taking the wave time part amount for predicting in March, 2017 as an example, that is, choose 2016 10 The history waybill data of 2 months -2017 years moon.
The history waybill data in 2 months -2017 years in October, 2016 are divided into 3 kinds of different training datasets and verifying number According to collection.
For example, { in January, -2017 in October, 2016 } is the first training dataset, { 2 months 2017 } are first verification data Collection;
{ in October, -2016 in December, 2016,2 months 2017 } is the second training dataset, and { in January, 2017 } tests for second Demonstrate,prove data set;
{ October in November, 2016-,-2 months in January, 2017 } is third training dataset, and { in December, 2016 } tests for third Demonstrate,prove data set.
Basic model is trained with the first training dataset, the basic model updated, indicates to be referred to as difference For the first prediction model;First verification data collection is input to the first prediction model, obtains the first prediction result.
Basic model is trained with the second training dataset, the basic model updated, indicates to be referred to as difference For the second prediction model;First verification data collection is input to the second prediction model, obtains the second prediction result.
Basic model is trained with third training dataset, the basic model updated, indicates to be referred to as difference For third prediction model;First verification data collection is input to the second prediction model, obtains third prediction result.
Finally, the first prediction result, the second prediction result and the second prediction result are averaged, final prediction is obtained As a result.
It should be appreciated that in the method that all units or module recorded in device 700 or 800 and reference Fig. 1 or Fig. 2 are described Each step is corresponding.Device 700 or 800 and wherein is equally applicable to above with respect to the operation and feature of method description as a result, The unit for including, details are not described herein.Device 700 or 800 can be realized in advance in the browser of electronic equipment or other safety In, it can also be loaded into the browser or its security application of electronic equipment by modes such as downloadings.Device 700 or Corresponding units in 800 can be cooperated with the unit in electronic equipment to realize the scheme of the embodiment of the present application.
Below with reference to Fig. 9, it illustrates the calculating of the terminal device or server that are suitable for being used to realize the embodiment of the present application The structural schematic diagram of machine system 900.
As shown in figure 9, computer system 900 includes central processing unit (CPU) 901, it can be read-only according to being stored in Program in memory (ROM) 902 or be loaded into the program in random access storage device (RAM) 903 from storage section 908 and Execute various movements appropriate and processing.In RAM 903, also it is stored with system 900 and operates required various programs and data. CPU 901, ROM 902 and RAM 903 are connected with each other by bus 904.Input/output (I/O) interface 905 is also connected to always Line 904.
I/O interface 905 is connected to lower component: the importation 906 including keyboard, mouse etc.;It is penetrated including such as cathode The output par, c 907 of spool (CRT), liquid crystal display (LCD) etc. and loudspeaker etc.;Storage section 908 including hard disk etc.; And the communications portion 909 of the network interface card including LAN card, modem etc..Communications portion 909 via such as because The network of spy's net executes communication process.Driver 910 is also connected to I/O interface 905 as needed.Detachable media 911, such as Disk, CD, magneto-optic disk, semiconductor memory etc. are mounted on as needed on driver 910, in order to read from thereon Computer program be mounted into storage section 908 as needed.
Particularly, in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure, it may be implemented as computer above with reference to the process described of Fig. 1 or 2 Software program.For example, embodiment of the disclosure includes a kind of computer program product comprising be tangibly embodied in machine readable Computer program on medium, the computer program include the program code for executing the method for Fig. 1 or 2.Such In embodiment, which can be downloaded and installed from network by communications portion 909, and/or is situated between from detachable Matter 911 is mounted.
Flow chart and block diagram in attached drawing are illustrated according to the system of various embodiments of the invention, method and computer journey The architecture, function and operation in the cards of sequence product.In this regard, each box in flowchart or block diagram can generation A part of one module, program segment or code of table, a part of the module, program segment or code include one or more Executable instruction for implementing the specified logical function.It should also be noted that in some implementations as replacements, institute in box The function of mark can also occur in a different order than that indicated in the drawings.For example, two boxes succeedingly indicated are practical On can be basically executed in parallel, they can also be executed in the opposite order sometimes, and this depends on the function involved.Also it wants It is noted that the combination of each box in block diagram and or flow chart and the box in block diagram and or flow chart, Ke Yiyong The dedicated hardware based system of defined functions or operations is executed to realize, or can be referred to specialized hardware and computer The combination of order is realized.
Being described in the embodiment of the present application involved unit or module can be realized by way of software, can also be with It is realized by way of hardware.Described unit or module also can be set in the processor, for example, can be described as: A kind of processor includes data processing unit, creation basic model unit and updates predicting unit.Wherein, these units or mould The title of block does not constitute the restriction to the unit or module itself under certain conditions, for example, data processing unit can be with It is described as " for handling the unit of data ".
As on the other hand, present invention also provides a kind of computer readable storage medium, the computer-readable storage mediums Matter can be computer readable storage medium included in device described in above-described embodiment;It is also possible to individualism, not The computer readable storage medium being fitted into equipment.Computer-readable recording medium storage has one or more than one journey Sequence, described program are used to execute the part amount prediction technique for being described in the application by one or more than one processor.
Above description is only the preferred embodiment of the application and the explanation to institute's application technology principle.Those skilled in the art Member is it should be appreciated that invention scope involved in the application, however it is not limited to technology made of the specific combination of above-mentioned technical characteristic Scheme, while should also cover in the case where not departing from the inventive concept, it is carried out by above-mentioned technical characteristic or its equivalent feature Any combination and the other technical solutions formed.Such as features described above has similar function with (but being not limited to) disclosed herein Can technical characteristic replaced mutually and the technical solution that is formed.

Claims (20)

1. a kind of amount prediction technique, which is characterized in that the described method includes:
To within the scope of first time history waybill data and external data handle, obtain data processed result;
It is trained using the data processed result, obtains depth residual error network foundation model;
The basic model is updated using the history waybill data in the second time range, obtains prediction model to determine target wave Secondary prediction part amount.
2. the method according to claim 1, wherein the history waybill data within the scope of first time and External data is handled, and data processed result is obtained, comprising:
Characteristic attribute data are extracted from the history waybill data, and the characteristic attribute data are handled, and obtain the One processing result;
Periodic law study is carried out to the history waybill data based on deep learning model, obtains multiple first time sequences, And by the multiple first time sequential polymerization be cycle time sequence;
Recent trend study is carried out to the history waybill data based on the deep learning model, obtains trend time series;
Processing is identified to the external data, obtains second processing as a result, the external data includes technical dates data And/or weather data.
3. method according to claim 1 or 2, which is characterized in that it is described to be trained using the data processed result, Obtain depth residual error network foundation model, comprising:
It polymerize the data processed result, obtains polymerization result;
It is trained using the polymerization result, obtains depth residual error network foundation model.
4. according to the method described in claim 3, it is characterized in that, the polymerization data processed result, obtains polymerization knot Fruit, comprising:
First processing result, the cycle time sequence, the trend time series and the second processing are gathered It closes, obtains polymerization result.
5. method according to claim 1-4, which is characterized in that the history using in the second time range Waybill data update the basic model, obtain prediction model to determine the prediction part amount of target wave time, comprising:
Determine the history waybill data of the second time range of prediction target wave time;
The history waybill data of second time range are divided into training dataset and validation data set;
Using depth residual error network foundation model described in the training dataset re -training, prediction model is obtained;
The validation data set is input to the prediction model, obtains the prediction part amount of target wave time.
6. according to the method described in claim 5, it is characterized in that, the history waybill data by the second time range divide For training dataset and validation data set, comprising:
In the history waybill data of second time range, multiple first verification data collection are dynamically specified, and draw Separate multiple and one-to-one first training dataset of the first verification data collection.
7. according to the method described in claim 6, it is characterized in that, described using deep described in the training dataset re -training Residual error network foundation model is spent, prediction model is obtained, comprising:
The multiple first training dataset is inputted into the depth residual error network foundation model re -training respectively, is obtained multiple Depth residual error Network Prediction Model is corresponded with first training dataset.
8. the method according to the description of claim 7 is characterized in that described be input to the prediction mould for the validation data set Type obtains the prediction part amount of target wave time, comprising:
Will with the multiple first training dataset correspondingly the first verification data collection input respectively with it is the multiple The one-to-one first depth residual error network model of first training dataset obtains multiple first prediction part amounts;
Calculate the average value of the multiple first prediction part amount, the prediction part amount as the target wave time.
9. according to the described in any item methods of claim 2-8, which is characterized in that described to be extracted from the history waybill data Characteristic attribute data, and the characteristic attribute data are handled, comprising:
Characteristic attribute data are extracted from the history waybill data, the characteristic attribute data include at least: number node number According to, month data, date data, week data, wave time part amount data;
Dimension-reduction treatment is carried out to the characteristic attribute data.
10. according to the method described in claim 9, it is characterized in that, it is described to the characteristic attribute data carry out dimension-reduction treatment, Include:
The characteristic attribute data are mapped to by feature space using embedding mode.
11. a kind of amount prediction meanss, described device include:
Data processing unit, within the scope of first time history waybill data and external data handle, counted According to processing result;
It creates basic model unit and obtains depth residual error network foundation mould for being trained using the data processed result Type;
Predicting unit is updated, for updating the basic model using the history waybill data in the second time range, is obtained pre- Model is surveyed to determine the prediction part amount of target wave time.
12. device according to claim 11, which is characterized in that the data processing unit, comprising:
First processing subelement, for extracting characteristic attribute data from the history waybill data, and to the characteristic attribute Data are handled, and the first processing result is obtained;
First time sequence generates subelement, for carrying out periodic law to the history waybill data based on deep learning model Study obtains multiple first time sequences, and is cycle time sequence by the multiple first time sequential polymerization;
Second time series generates subelement, recent for being carried out based on the deep learning model to the history waybill data Trend study, obtains trend time series;
Second processing subelement is identified processing to the external data, obtains second processing as a result, the external data packet Include technical dates data and/or weather data.
13. device according to claim 11 or 12, which is characterized in that the creation basic model unit, comprising:
It polymerize subelement and obtains polymerization result for polymerizeing the data processed result;
Training subelement obtains depth residual error network foundation model for being trained using the polymerization result.
14. device according to claim 13, which is characterized in that the polymerized unit is also used to handle described first As a result, the cycle time sequence, the trend time series and the second processing result are polymerize, and obtain polymerization knot Fruit.
15. the described in any item devices of 1-14 according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the update predicting unit, comprising:
Determine subelement, the history waybill data of the second time range for determining prediction target wave time;
Data divide subelement, for the history waybill data of the second time range to be divided into training dataset and verify data Collection;
Subelement is updated, for obtaining pre- using depth residual error network foundation model described in the training dataset re -training Survey model;
It predicts subelement, for the validation data set to be input to the prediction model, obtains the prediction part amount of target wave time.
16. device according to claim 15, which is characterized in that the data divide subelement, are also used to described the In the history waybill data of two time ranges, multiple first verification data collection are dynamically specified, and mark off multiple and institute State one-to-one first training dataset of first verification data collection.
17. device according to claim 16, which is characterized in that the update subelement is also used to the multiple One training dataset inputs the depth residual error network foundation model re -training respectively, obtains the multiple and described first training number Depth residual error Network Prediction Model is corresponded according to collection.
18. device according to claim 17, which is characterized in that the prediction subelement, comprising:
First prediction subelement, for will be with the multiple first training dataset first verification data collection correspondingly Input and the one-to-one first depth residual error network model of the multiple first training dataset respectively, it is pre- to obtain multiple first Survey part amount;
Computation subunit, the prediction part for calculating the average value of the multiple first prediction part amount, as the target wave time Amount.
19. a kind of equipment, including processor, storage device;It is characterized by:
The storage device, for storing one or more programs;
When one or more of programs are executed by the processor, so that the processor is realized as appointed in claim 1-10 Method described in one.
20. a kind of computer readable storage medium, is stored thereon with computer program, the computer program is executed by processor When, realize such as method of any of claims 1-10.
CN201711426164.0A 2017-12-25 2017-12-25 Method, device, equipment and storage medium for predicting part quantity Active CN110019401B (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201711426164.0A CN110019401B (en) 2017-12-25 2017-12-25 Method, device, equipment and storage medium for predicting part quantity

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201711426164.0A CN110019401B (en) 2017-12-25 2017-12-25 Method, device, equipment and storage medium for predicting part quantity

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
CN110019401A true CN110019401A (en) 2019-07-16
CN110019401B CN110019401B (en) 2024-04-05

Family

ID=67187147

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
CN201711426164.0A Active CN110019401B (en) 2017-12-25 2017-12-25 Method, device, equipment and storage medium for predicting part quantity

Country Status (1)

Country Link
CN (1) CN110019401B (en)

Cited By (13)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN110889560A (en) * 2019-12-06 2020-03-17 西北工业大学 Express delivery sequence prediction method with deep interpretability
CN111401940A (en) * 2020-03-05 2020-07-10 杭州网易再顾科技有限公司 Feature prediction method, feature prediction device, electronic device, and storage medium
CN112183832A (en) * 2020-09-17 2021-01-05 上海东普信息科技有限公司 Express pickup quantity prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium
CN112418534A (en) * 2020-11-26 2021-02-26 上海东普信息科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting collection quantity, electronic equipment and computer readable storage medium
CN112801327A (en) * 2019-11-14 2021-05-14 顺丰科技有限公司 Method, device, equipment and storage medium for predicting logistics flow and modeling thereof
CN112862137A (en) * 2019-11-27 2021-05-28 顺丰科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting quantity, computer equipment and computer readable storage medium
CN112907267A (en) * 2019-12-03 2021-06-04 顺丰科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting cargo quantity, computer equipment and storage medium
CN112948763A (en) * 2019-12-11 2021-06-11 顺丰科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting quantity of component, electronic equipment and storage medium
CN112966849A (en) * 2019-12-13 2021-06-15 顺丰科技有限公司 Method, device and equipment for establishing component prediction model
CN112990526A (en) * 2019-12-16 2021-06-18 顺丰科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting logistics arrival quantity and storage medium
CN112990520A (en) * 2019-12-13 2021-06-18 顺丰科技有限公司 Mesh point connection quantity prediction method and device, computer equipment and storage medium
CN113077069A (en) * 2020-01-03 2021-07-06 顺丰科技有限公司 Modeling method, device and equipment for predicting shift quantity and storage medium
US12265942B2 (en) 2021-05-17 2025-04-01 Starbucks Corporation Method and system for automatic replenishment of retail enterprise store, and computer-readable storage medium

Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN105427194A (en) * 2015-12-21 2016-03-23 西安美林数据技术股份有限公司 Method and device for electricity sales amount prediction based on random forest regression
CN106886846A (en) * 2017-04-26 2017-06-23 中南大学 A kind of bank outlets' excess reserve Forecasting Methodology that Recognition with Recurrent Neural Network is remembered based on shot and long term
US20170249534A1 (en) * 2016-02-29 2017-08-31 Fujitsu Limited Method and apparatus for generating time series data sets for predictive analysis
CN107316083A (en) * 2017-07-04 2017-11-03 北京百度网讯科技有限公司 Method and apparatus for updating deep learning model
CN107330522A (en) * 2017-07-04 2017-11-07 北京百度网讯科技有限公司 Method, apparatus and system for updating deep learning model

Patent Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN105427194A (en) * 2015-12-21 2016-03-23 西安美林数据技术股份有限公司 Method and device for electricity sales amount prediction based on random forest regression
US20170249534A1 (en) * 2016-02-29 2017-08-31 Fujitsu Limited Method and apparatus for generating time series data sets for predictive analysis
CN106886846A (en) * 2017-04-26 2017-06-23 中南大学 A kind of bank outlets' excess reserve Forecasting Methodology that Recognition with Recurrent Neural Network is remembered based on shot and long term
CN107316083A (en) * 2017-07-04 2017-11-03 北京百度网讯科技有限公司 Method and apparatus for updating deep learning model
CN107330522A (en) * 2017-07-04 2017-11-07 北京百度网讯科技有限公司 Method, apparatus and system for updating deep learning model

Cited By (19)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN112801327A (en) * 2019-11-14 2021-05-14 顺丰科技有限公司 Method, device, equipment and storage medium for predicting logistics flow and modeling thereof
CN112862137A (en) * 2019-11-27 2021-05-28 顺丰科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting quantity, computer equipment and computer readable storage medium
CN112907267B (en) * 2019-12-03 2024-08-23 顺丰科技有限公司 Method, apparatus, computer device and storage medium for predicting article quantity
CN112907267A (en) * 2019-12-03 2021-06-04 顺丰科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting cargo quantity, computer equipment and storage medium
CN110889560A (en) * 2019-12-06 2020-03-17 西北工业大学 Express delivery sequence prediction method with deep interpretability
CN112948763A (en) * 2019-12-11 2021-06-11 顺丰科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting quantity of component, electronic equipment and storage medium
CN112948763B (en) * 2019-12-11 2024-04-09 顺丰科技有限公司 Piece quantity prediction method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium
CN112966849A (en) * 2019-12-13 2021-06-15 顺丰科技有限公司 Method, device and equipment for establishing component prediction model
CN112990520A (en) * 2019-12-13 2021-06-18 顺丰科技有限公司 Mesh point connection quantity prediction method and device, computer equipment and storage medium
CN112966849B (en) * 2019-12-13 2024-06-07 顺丰科技有限公司 Method, device and equipment for establishing part quantity prediction model
CN112990520B (en) * 2019-12-13 2024-08-20 顺丰科技有限公司 Method, device, computer equipment and storage medium for predicting net point connection piece quantity
CN112990526A (en) * 2019-12-16 2021-06-18 顺丰科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting logistics arrival quantity and storage medium
CN113077069A (en) * 2020-01-03 2021-07-06 顺丰科技有限公司 Modeling method, device and equipment for predicting shift quantity and storage medium
CN113077069B (en) * 2020-01-03 2023-06-13 顺丰科技有限公司 Modeling method, device, equipment and storage medium for predicting shift number
CN111401940A (en) * 2020-03-05 2020-07-10 杭州网易再顾科技有限公司 Feature prediction method, feature prediction device, electronic device, and storage medium
CN112183832A (en) * 2020-09-17 2021-01-05 上海东普信息科技有限公司 Express pickup quantity prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium
CN112418534A (en) * 2020-11-26 2021-02-26 上海东普信息科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting collection quantity, electronic equipment and computer readable storage medium
CN112418534B (en) * 2020-11-26 2022-10-14 上海东普信息科技有限公司 Method and device for predicting quantity of collected parts, electronic equipment and computer readable storage medium
US12265942B2 (en) 2021-05-17 2025-04-01 Starbucks Corporation Method and system for automatic replenishment of retail enterprise store, and computer-readable storage medium

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
CN110019401B (en) 2024-04-05

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
CN110019401A (en) Part amount prediction technique, device, equipment and its storage medium
Holdaway Harness oil and gas big data with analytics: Optimize exploration and production with data-driven models
Suryani et al. Demand scenario analysis and planned capacity expansion: A system dynamics framework
CN110400021A (en) Bank outlets' cash dosage prediction technique and device
Vadisetty AI-Based Smart Governance
CN109961248A (en) Waybill complains prediction technique, device, equipment and its storage medium
CN109961165A (en) Part amount prediction technique, device, equipment and its storage medium
Sun et al. Multi-step ahead tourism demand forecasting: The perspective of the learning using privileged information paradigm
CN111738504A (en) Enterprise financial index fund amount prediction method and device, equipment and storage medium
US20200050982A1 (en) Method and System for Predictive Modeling for Dynamically Scheduling Resource Allocation
CN112380321B (en) Primary and secondary database allocation method based on bill knowledge graph and related equipment
CN110263136B (en) Method and device for pushing object to user based on reinforcement learning model
EP4433938A1 (en) Optimization and decision-making using causal aware machine learning models trained from simulators
Hu et al. Generating decision rules for flexible capacity expansion problem through gene expression programming
CN113793037A (en) Service distribution method, device, equipment and storage medium based on data analysis
Pei et al. A Predictive Analysis of the Business Environment of Economies along the Belt and Road Using the Fractional‐Order Grey Model
CN111738508A (en) Bank branch blank certificate inventory usage prediction method and device, equipment and medium
Mutanov et al. Investments decision making on the basis of system dynamics
CN109979122A (en) ATM safeguards method for early warning and system
CN109767031A (en) Model classifiers method for building up, device, computer equipment and storage medium
CN115630979A (en) Day-ahead electricity price prediction method and device, storage medium and computer equipment
CN113298377A (en) Method and device for screening items in enterprise research and development expense and deduction
Blok et al. Dynamic models of the firm: determining optimal investment, financing and production policies by computer
Meng et al. Application of EEMD+ BI_GRU hybrid model for intelligent service area traffic flow forecasting.
Yang et al. A Multitime Window Parallel Scheduling System for Large‐Scale Offshore Platform Project

Legal Events

Date Code Title Description
PB01 Publication
PB01 Publication
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
GR01 Patent grant
GR01 Patent grant