CN109633449A - Mining service life of lithium battery prediction technique and management system based on grey vector machine - Google Patents
Mining service life of lithium battery prediction technique and management system based on grey vector machine Download PDFInfo
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- WHXSMMKQMYFTQS-UHFFFAOYSA-N Lithium Chemical compound [Li] WHXSMMKQMYFTQS-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 title claims abstract description 35
- 229910052744 lithium Inorganic materials 0.000 title claims abstract description 35
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 27
- 238000005065 mining Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 20
- 238000012549 training Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 44
- HBBGRARXTFLTSG-UHFFFAOYSA-N Lithium ion Chemical compound [Li+] HBBGRARXTFLTSG-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims abstract description 5
- 238000010219 correlation analysis Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 5
- 229910001416 lithium ion Inorganic materials 0.000 claims abstract description 5
- 238000004422 calculation algorithm Methods 0.000 claims description 10
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 230000015572 biosynthetic process Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000009191 jumping Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000002503 metabolic effect Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000001373 regressive effect Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000007774 longterm Effects 0.000 abstract 1
- 230000004060 metabolic process Effects 0.000 abstract 1
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 abstract 1
- 235000013399 edible fruits Nutrition 0.000 description 2
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000012097 association analysis method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000015556 catabolic process Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004891 communication Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000006731 degradation reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000000178 monomer Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000002035 prolonged effect Effects 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种基于灰色向量机的矿用锂电池寿命预测方法及管理系统。该寿命预测方法采用矿用锂离子电池容量作为训练样本建立灰色RVM回归预测模型；根据训练样本数据建立DGM，将DGM的预测值作为输入、原始训练样本作为输出，训练得到RVM回归预测模型；采用DGM(1,1)做容量短期预测，并将预测值作为RVM回归预测模型的输入，获得获得容量的短期回归预测结果及预测概率值，并引入新陈代谢过程，更新训练样本数据；采用灰色关联分析判断相关性，并以此结果对RVM模型进行动态的更新，获得新的相关向量，以获得该方法长期趋势预测结果。本发明通过实时采集锂电池监测数据，获得了更准确地矿用锂电池的寿命预测精度。
The invention discloses a life prediction method and management system of a mine lithium battery based on a gray vector machine. The life prediction method uses the capacity of mining lithium-ion battery as the training sample to establish a gray RVM regression prediction model; establishes a DGM according to the training sample data, takes the predicted value of the DGM as the input and the original training sample as the output, and trains the RVM regression prediction model; DGM(1,1) makes short-term prediction of capacity, and uses the predicted value as the input of the RVM regression prediction model, obtains the short-term regression prediction result and prediction probability value of the obtained capacity, and introduces the metabolic process to update the training sample data; uses gray correlation analysis The correlation is judged, and the RVM model is dynamically updated with this result to obtain a new correlation vector, so as to obtain the long-term trend prediction result of the method. The invention obtains more accurate life prediction accuracy of the lithium battery for mining by collecting the monitoring data of the lithium battery in real time.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of mining service life of lithium battery prediction technique and management system based on grey vector machine, belong to lithium
Technical field of battery management.
Background technique
Lithium battery is with monomer operating voltage is high, small in size, light-weight, energy density is high, service life cycle is long, puts certainly
The advantages that electric current is small, memory-less effect, high pollution-free and cost performance, thus each row such as be widely used in communication, traffic, mining
Industry.Lithium battery includes battery core and protection two parts of circuit, and the protection circuit function of large-scale lithium battery is powerful, also known as management system
System, effect mainly ensure the uniformity of each economize on electricity tankage, the mistake for being diagnosed to be the battery problem in time, preventing battery
Charging and overdischarge, the state-of-charge for accurately obtaining battery etc..
Since lithium battery price is higher, scientifical use lithium battery is prolonged its service life, for reducing production cost, mentioning
High-environmental level all has realistic meaning.But due to the presence of noise, measurement error etc., existing lithium battery management system pair
The prediction of service life of lithium battery is also in low-level state.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of that present invention to provide a kind of service life of lithium battery prediction technique and management system based on grey vector machine, energy
The life prediction enough significantly improved to lithium battery is horizontal.
To achieve the above object, a kind of mining service life of lithium battery prediction technique based on grey vector machine, including following step
It is rapid:
The first step selects prediction model DGM (1,1), is defined as follows:
x(1)(k+1)=β1x(1)(k)+β2；
By carrying out simulation analysis to mining lithium battery cycle life test data, DGM (1,1) is to GM (1,1) model
Further precision, improves the stability of prediction to a certain extent.
Second step selects mining cycle life of lithium ion battery capacity sample data as initial training data, by sample
All data are converted to the number between [- 1,1], eliminate the quantity between cycle period number and capacity by normalized
Grade difference；
Third step, initialization RVM model parameter: Selection of kernel function gaussian kernel function, K (x, xi)=exp (- | | x-xi||2/
r2), carry out EM interative computation, noise variance σ2=0.1var (x), condition of convergence δ take 0.1, and weight w is set as
Wherein r is bandwidth；
4th step establishes predictive equation according to prediction model in the first step
β is solved with DGM (1,1)1And β2；Original non-negative training data sequence isIt is primary
Accumulating generation sequence are as follows:
WhereinBy X(1)It substitutes into the formula of the first step, obtains:
Y=B β
Wherein β=(β1,β2)T, to join sequence,
Then DGM differential equation x(1)(k+1)=β1x(1)(k)+β2Least-squares estimation parameter column meet β=(BTB)- 1BTY, and then can be calculated β1And β2；
It takesThe then estimated value of one-accumulate formation sequence are as follows:
Reduction can obtain DGM (1,1) prediction model:
It is iterated to calculate by the DGM (1,1) of foundation, updates original training data；
5th step establishes RVM regressive prediction model
Input data by (1, the 1) model of DGM in third step to the predicted value of original training data as RVM model,
Output data of the original training data as RVM obtains RVM regression model using EM iterative algorithm training RVM model；
6th step, lithium battery capacity prediction
Predicted value is inputted by the trend prediction of setting step-length to battery capacity by third step using DGM (1,1) model algorithm
In the RVM regression model that middle training obtains, the prediction result and probable range of battery capacity are obtained；
7th step, prediction terminate judgement
Judge whether battery capacity prediction value is greater than the capacity failure threshold values of setting, if more than the capacity failure valve of setting
Value, goes to the 8th step and continues to predict；If the capacity for being less than setting predicts threshold values, prediction terminates, and capacity is predicted to tie
Fruit and its confidence interval are converted to RUL value and corresponding confidence interval, and compare with actual RUL, to verify herein
The validity of method；
8th step, correlation analysis
Using metabolic method, the prediction result of the battery capacity in the 6th step is updated into original training data, is obtained
New training data；Short-term forecast is carried out in new training data input DGM (1,1) model algorithm；Finally with grey correlation point
Analysis method analyzes the degree of association between new training data and original training data；If the degree of association between the two is larger, it is greater than setting
Value returns to the 6th step and continues to predict；Conversely, jumping to the 5th step re -training RVM regression model, new RVM model is obtained, and
Continue to predict.
Meanwhile the present invention also provides a kind of lithium battery management system, which includes the above-mentioned lithium battery longevity
Order prediction technique.
The present invention selects battery capacity as original training data, establishes Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction, and what is generated is pre-
Measured value sets corresponding failure threshold as RVM mode input data, and it is related to original training data to obtain grey correlation distribution
Property judgement, carry out the judgement that prediction target is completed, and then capacity predicted value and prediction technique be converted into confidence interval.
Compared with prior art, the present invention predicts service life of lithium battery more accurate, can according to the prediction result of this method
To advanced optimize management system, energy content of battery utilization rate is maximized, battery is effectively extended.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
The following further describes the present invention with reference to the drawings:
A kind of mining service life of lithium battery prediction technique based on grey vector machine, comprising the following steps:
The first step selects prediction model DGM (1,1), is defined as follows:
x(1)(k+1)=β1x(1)(k)+β2；
By carrying out simulation analysis to mining lithium battery cycle life test data, DGM (1,1) is to GM (1,1) model
Further precision, improves the stability of prediction to a certain extent.
Second step selects mining cycle life of lithium ion battery capacity sample data as initial training data, by sample
All data are converted to the number between [- 1,1], eliminate the quantity between cycle period number and capacity by normalized
Grade difference；
Third step, initialization RVM model parameter: Selection of kernel function gaussian kernel function, K (x, xi)=exp (- | | x-xi||2/
r2), carry out EM interative computation, noise variance σ2=0.1var (x), condition of convergence δ take 0.1, and weight w is set as
Wherein r is bandwidth；
4th step establishes predictive equation according to prediction model in the first step
β is solved with DGM (1,1)1And β2；Original non-negative training data sequence isIt is primary
Accumulating generation sequence are as follows:
WhereinBy X(1)It substitutes into the formula of the first step, obtains:
Y=B β
Wherein β=(β1,β2)T, to join sequence,
Then DGM differential equation x(1)(k+1)=β1x(1)(k)+β2Least-squares estimation parameter column meet β=(BTB)- 1BTY, and then can be calculated β1And β2；
It takesThe then estimated value of one-accumulate formation sequence are as follows:
Reduction can obtain DGM (1,1) prediction model:
It is iterated to calculate by the DGM (1,1) of foundation, updates original training data；
5th step establishes RVM regressive prediction model
Input data by (1, the 1) model of DGM in third step to the predicted value of original training data as RVM model,
Output data of the original training data as RVM obtains RVM regression model using EM iterative algorithm training RVM model；
6th step, lithium battery capacity prediction
Predicted value is inputted by the trend prediction of setting step-length to battery capacity by third step using DGM (1,1) model algorithm
In the RVM regression model that middle training obtains, the prediction result and probable range of battery capacity are obtained；
7th step, prediction terminate judgement
Judge whether battery capacity prediction value is greater than the capacity failure threshold values of setting, if more than the capacity failure valve of setting
Value, goes to the 8th step and continues to predict；If the capacity for being less than setting predicts threshold values, prediction terminates, and capacity is predicted to tie
Fruit and its confidence interval are converted to RUL value and corresponding confidence interval, and compare with actual RUL, to verify herein
The validity of method；
8th step, correlation analysis
Using metabolic method, the prediction result of the battery capacity in the 6th step is updated into original training data, is obtained
New training data；Short-term forecast is carried out in new training data input DGM (1,1) model algorithm；Finally with grey correlation point
Analysis method analyzes the degree of association between new training data and original training data；If the degree of association between the two is larger, it is greater than setting
Value returns to the 6th step and continues to predict；Conversely, jumping to the 5th step re -training RVM regression model, new RVM model is obtained, and
Continue to predict.
Grey Incidence Analysis described in 8th step uses slope grey Relational Analysis Method, and this method is in traditional ash
Improvement on color association analysis method, resolution ratio is higher, mining capacity of lithium ion battery degradation trend is suitble to analyze, specific formula
It is as follows:
Assuming that two data sequencesWithDegree of association coefficient of relationship calculation formula between the two are as follows:
Wherein, Δ xk=xk+1-xk, Δ yk=yk+1-yk,
Finally obtain the degree of association between two data sequences:
Bandwidth r described in third step is core parameter, and the sparsity and accuracy of decision model, bandwidth is smaller, it is related to
Amount is more intensive, fitting precision is higher, while the complexity of model also increases, and calculates time growth, it is also possible to cause model excessively quasi-
It closes, model is made to lose sparsity, so bandwidth is suitable according to selection the characteristics of mining lithium battery, the preferred r=of bandwidth
5。
The number of iterations of EM iterative algorithm described in third step is more, calculates more accurate, but the number of iterations increases meter
Burden is calculated, so the application loop iteration number takes 1200.
The present invention also provides a kind of mining lithium battery management system, which includes any of the above-described described
Service life of lithium battery prediction technique.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of mining service life of lithium battery prediction technique based on grey vector machine, which comprises the following steps:
The first step selects prediction model DGM (1,1), is defined as follows:
x(1)(k+1)=β1x(1)(k)+β2；
Second step selects mining cycle life of lithium ion battery capacity sample data as initial training data, by sample normalizing
All data are converted to the number between [- 1,1] by change processing, and the quantity eliminated between cycle period number and capacity is differential
Not；
Third step, initialization RVM model parameter: Selection of kernel function gaussian kernel function, K (x, xi)=exp (- | | x-xi||2/r2),
Carry out EM interative computation, noise variance σ2=0.1var (x), condition of convergence δ take 0.1, and weight w is set asWherein r
For bandwidth；
4th step establishes predictive equation according to prediction model in the first step
β is solved with DGM (1,1)1And β2；Original non-negative training data sequence isIts one-accumulate
Formation sequence are as follows:
WhereinBy X(1)It substitutes into the formula of the first step, obtains:
Y=B β
Wherein β=(β1,β2)T, to join sequence,
Then DGM differential equation x(1)(k+1)=β1x(1)(k)+β2Least-squares estimation parameter column meet β=(BTB)-1BTY, into
And it can be calculated β1And β2；
It takesThe then estimated value of one-accumulate formation sequence are as follows:
Reduction can obtain DGM (1,1) prediction model:
It is iterated to calculate by the DGM (1,1) of foundation, updates original training data；
5th step establishes RVM regressive prediction model
Input data by (1, the 1) model of DGM in third step to the predicted value of original training data as RVM model is original
Output data of the training data as RVM obtains RVM regression model using EM iterative algorithm training RVM model；
6th step, lithium battery capacity prediction
Predicted value is inputted in third step and instructed by the trend prediction of setting step-length by battery capacity using DGM (1,1) model algorithm
In the RVM regression model got, the prediction result and probable range of battery capacity are obtained；
7th step, prediction terminate judgement
Judge whether battery capacity prediction value is greater than the capacity failure threshold values of setting, if more than the capacity failure threshold values of setting, turns
Continue to predict to the 8th step；If the capacity for being less than setting predicts threshold values, prediction terminates, and by capacity prediction result and its
Confidence interval is converted to RUL value and corresponding confidence interval, and compares with actual RUL, to verify context of methods
Validity；
8th step, correlation analysis
Using metabolic method, the prediction result of the battery capacity in the 6th step is updated into original training data, is obtained new
Training data；Short-term forecast is carried out in new training data input DGM (1,1) model algorithm；Finally with grey correlation analysis side
Method analyzes the degree of association between new training data and original training data；If the degree of association between the two is larger, it is greater than the set value, returns
The 6th step is returned to continue to predict；Conversely, jumping to the 5th step re -training RVM regression model, new RVM model is obtained, and continue
Prediction.
2. mining service life of lithium battery prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that grey described in the 8th step is closed
Connection analysis method is slope grey Relational Analysis Method, and formula is as follows:
Assuming that two data sequencesWithDegree of association coefficient of relationship calculation formula between the two are as follows:
Wherein, Δ xk=xk+1-xk, Δ yk=yk+1-yk,
Finally obtain the degree of association between two data sequences:
3. mining service life of lithium battery prediction technique according to claim 2, which is characterized in that bandwidth r described in third step
=5.
4. service life of lithium battery prediction technique according to claim 3, which is characterized in that EM interative computation described in third step
Largest loop the number of iterations take 1200.
5. a kind of mining lithium battery management system, which is characterized in that include claim 1 to any lithium of claim 4
Battery life predicting method.
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110187280A (en) * | 2019-05-20 | 2019-08-30 | 天津大学 | A method of the lithium battery remaining life probabilistic forecasting based on gray model |
| CN110187281A (en) * | 2019-05-22 | 2019-08-30 | 天津大学 | The method of lithium battery health status estimation based on charging stage health characteristics |
| CN110398697A (en) * | 2019-07-23 | 2019-11-01 | 北京工业大学 | A method for estimating the state of health of lithium ions based on the charging process |
| CN111273352A (en) * | 2020-01-15 | 2020-06-12 | 中国煤炭地质总局勘查研究总院 | Intelligent detection method, device and electronic device for geological structure |
Citations (1)
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| CN103033761A (en) * | 2012-12-17 | 2013-04-10 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Lithium ion battery residual life forecasting method of dynamic gray related vector machine |
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Patent Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN103033761A (en) * | 2012-12-17 | 2013-04-10 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Lithium ion battery residual life forecasting method of dynamic gray related vector machine |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 姜玉叶: "矿用锂离子电池状态监测与寿命预测研究", 《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库 工程科技Ⅱ辑》 * |
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110187280A (en) * | 2019-05-20 | 2019-08-30 | 天津大学 | A method of the lithium battery remaining life probabilistic forecasting based on gray model |
| CN110187281A (en) * | 2019-05-22 | 2019-08-30 | 天津大学 | The method of lithium battery health status estimation based on charging stage health characteristics |
| CN110187281B (en) * | 2019-05-22 | 2021-06-04 | 天津大学 | Lithium battery health state estimation method based on charging stage health characteristics |
| CN110398697A (en) * | 2019-07-23 | 2019-11-01 | 北京工业大学 | A method for estimating the state of health of lithium ions based on the charging process |
| CN111273352A (en) * | 2020-01-15 | 2020-06-12 | 中国煤炭地质总局勘查研究总院 | Intelligent detection method, device and electronic device for geological structure |
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