CN109472444A - A Comprehensive Evaluation and Analysis Method of Heating Projects Based on Combination Weights - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明涉及一种基于组合权重的供热项目综合评价分析方法，包括以下步骤：建立多维度指标体系，该多维度指标体系包括经济性指标、环保性指标、风险性指标、灵活性指标、资源可利用性指标及技术成熟度指标；计算供热项目的经济性指标、环保性指标、风险性指标、灵活性指标、资源可利用性指标、技术成熟度指标；应用区间层次分析法确定各维度指标权重；应用区间主成分分析法确定各维度指标权重；计算各备选供热方案的组合权重；依据各备选供热方案的组合权重值，对各备选方案进行排序和评价。本发明设计合理，可有效评价供热项目的经济性、环保性、风险性、灵活性资源可利用性以及技术成熟度等，对供热项目的合理规划有重要指导意义。
The invention relates to a comprehensive evaluation and analysis method for a heating project based on combined weights, comprising the following steps: establishing a multi-dimensional index system, the multi-dimensional index system including economic indicators, environmental protection indicators, risk indicators, flexibility indicators, resources Availability index and technology maturity index; calculate the economic index, environmental protection index, risk index, flexibility index, resource availability index, and technology maturity index of the heating project; use the interval analytic hierarchy process to determine each dimension Index weight; use interval principal component analysis to determine the weight of each dimension index; calculate the combined weight of each alternative heating scheme; rank and evaluate each alternative according to the combined weight value of each alternative heating scheme. The invention has a reasonable design, can effectively evaluate the economy, environmental protection, risk, availability of flexible resources and technical maturity of the heating project, and has important guiding significance for the rational planning of the heating project.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to heat supply process field, especially a kind of heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis side based on combining weights
Method.
Background technique
Therefore, how to establish comprehensive index system of various dimensions to carry out thoroughly evaluating to heating project is to compel to be essential at present
It solves the problems, such as.
In recent years, the situation is tense for Environmental Protection in China, and PM2.5 concentration severely exceeds.The heat supply in winter of northern area, it is considered to be
The important sources of haze.It replaces other non-renewable energy to carry out heat supply with clean energy resource, pollution can be effectively reduced, the raising energy makes
Use efficiency.However the selection of heat-supplying mode needs to establish synthesis in terms of to various heat supply schemes in economy, environment and comments
On valence basis.For the evaluation problem of heating project, existing assessment technique generallys use single analytic hierarchy process (AHP) or visitor
Evaluation method is seen, the analysis means of subjective and objective combination are lacked, evaluation heating project that cannot be comprehensive, accurate and effective.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, propose that one kind being capable of comprehensive, accurate and effective assessment heat supply
The heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method based on combining weights of project.
The present invention solves its technical problem and adopts the following technical solutions to achieve:
A kind of heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method based on combining weights, comprising the following steps:
Step 1 establishes various dimensions index system, which includes economic index, feature of environmental protection index, wind
Dangerous index, flexibility index, resource availability index and technical maturity index；
Step 2, the economic index for calculating heating project；
Step 3, the feature of environmental protection index for calculating heating project；
Step 4, the risk index for calculating heating project；
Step 5, the flexibility index for calculating heating project；
Step 6, the resource availability index for calculating heating project；
Step 7, the technical maturity index for calculating heating project；
Step 8 determines each dimension index weights using interval based AHP；
Step 9 determines each dimension index weights using section Principal Component Analysis；
Step 10, the combining weights for calculating each alternative heat supply scheme；
Step 11, according to the combined weights weight values of each alternative heat supply scheme, each alternative is ranked up and is evaluated, choose
The maximum heat supply scheme of overall target is as preferred plan.
Further, the economic index includes initial investment expense, operating cost, maintenance cost, energy-saving environmental protection device
Public subsidies and remanent value of equipment；The feature of environmental protection index includes dust discharge amount, SO2 emissions, CO2 emission
Amount and nitrogen oxide emission；The risk index includes policy risk and energy price volatility；The flexibility refers to
It is designated as heat load adjustment ability；The resource availability index is used the abundant degree of the energy by heat-supplying mode；The skill
The reliability of art mature indicator confession under directions hot mode technically.
Further, the economic index E calculation formula is as follows:
E=I+O+F-W-Y
Wherein, I is the initial investment expense of heating equipment；The operating cost expense of O heating equipment, F are its plant maintenance
Expense；W is subsidy of the country to energy-saving environmental protection device；Y is remanent value of equipment；Wherein O calculation formula is as follows,
O=(P × Q/ ξ)/η
Wherein, P is the price of the energy needed for heating equipment heats；ξ is the energy conversion efficiency of heating equipment；η is heat supply
The efficiency of mode；Q is the total heat duties amount during project operation；
The feature of environmental protection index is characterized with gross contamination emission M, and calculation formula is as follows:
M=(γC+γN+γS+γ)×λ×(Q/ξ)/η
Wherein, λ is the referring factor of the energy and standard coal equivalent needed for heating equipment；γC、γN、γS, γ be respectively one
The emission factor of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and dust that kilogram standard coal or combustion of natural gas generate；
The risk index includes the fluctuation risk of environment protection energy-saving equipment subsidy policy risk and energy prices, and risk refers to
It is as follows to mark calculation formula:
R=(W-E (W))-(P-E (P)) × (Q/ ξ)/η
Wherein, E (W) is the desired value that country subsidizes energy-saving environmental protection device when Future Project is implemented, including is disposably purchased
Install next choice patch w1W is subsidized with energy prices during heating2；E (P) is the desired value of Future Project operation stage energy prices, is adopted
It is calculated with following formula:
pn、w1,n、w2,nEnergy prices, equipment subsidy and the energy prices of respectively nearest N subsidize w2,n, n=1,
2,....,N；Enable Δ pn=pn+1-pn,Δw1,n=w1,n+1-w1,n,Δw2,n=w2,n+1-w2,n；Energy prices, equipment subsidy, energy
The probability of source price subsidies raising and lowering determines by the average value of the raising and lowering of recent years, price and subsidy rise and
Decline percentage is determined that calculation method is respectively such as following formula by the average value of raising and lowering percentage recent years.
Wherein k=1,2,3, corresponding each parameter respectively indicates energy prices, equipment subsidized price, energy prices and subsidizes
Parameter；nk +And nk -The number that respectively parameter k is fluctuated in the N of investigation to upper fluctuation and downwards；gk +And gk -Respectively price
Rise amount and downward amount；
The calculation formula of the flexibility index C is as follows:
Wherein, P0For the heats power of heating equipment, Q0To calculate for thermic load needed for promoting unit temperature in thermal region
Formula is as follows:
Q0=c0ρ0V0
Wherein, c0For the specific heat of air, ρ0For the density of air, v0For volume of air；
The year production specific gravity of the resource availability index energy indicates；
The technical maturity index is according to the technical locating popularization of each scheme heat-supplying mode, universal and commercial three phases
Index value is taken as [1,3] respectively, [4,6], [7,9].
Further, the step 8 concrete methods of realizing the following steps are included:
(1) remembered respectively using each index calculated result as rule layer criterion p to the index lower and upper limit of scheme layered scheme i
Make ai -And ai +；The judgment matrix of construction rules p to solution layer is respectively A according to the following formula-={ a- ijAnd A+={ a+ ij}:
(2) A is sought-And A+The corresponding normalization characteristic vector x with positive component of maximum eigenvaluei -And xi +；
(3) ratio coefficient k is calculated according to the following formulai, miAnd weight vectors ωp,i, all criterion are calculated to solution layer
Weight vectors ωp, p=1,2 .., P:
(4), by expert point rating method, destination layer is determined to the judgment matrix of rule layer, calculates its characteristic root bp, obtain target
Weight vectors B={ b of the layer to rule layerp}；
(5) total weight is calculated according to following formula:
Further, the step 9 concrete methods of realizing the following steps are included:
(1) section Principal Component Analysis is applied, is calculated as follows to obtain each principal component scores:
(2) the weight mu of each scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Further, the concrete methods of realizing of the step 10 are as follows: calculate the weight that step 8 and step 9 are calculated and ask it
Then harmonic-mean calculates combining weights according to the following formula:
Wherein, ωiAnd μiRespectively indicate analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the weight of scheme i that Principal Component Analysis obtains.
The advantages and positive effects of the present invention are:
The present invention has rational design, according to a variety of attributes of heating project, establishes various dimensions indicator evaluation system, and propose
The comprehensive evaluation analysis method of subjective and objective combination, can the economy of effective evaluation heating project, the feature of environmental protection, risk, flexibly
Property resource availability and technical maturity etc., which can effectively solve that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) evaluation is excessively subjective to ask
Topic, has great importance to making rational planning for for heating project.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the heating project various dimensions comprehensive index system structure chart that the present invention constructs；
Fig. 2 is the flow chart of heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method of the invention.
Specific embodiment
The embodiment of the present invention is further described below in conjunction with attached drawing.
A kind of heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method based on combining weights, comprising the following steps:
Step 1 establishes various dimensions index system
As shown in Figure 1, the various dimensions index system that this step is established includes economic index, feature of environmental protection index, risk
Index, flexibility index, resource availability index and technical maturity index.Wherein, economic index specifically includes, just
Phase investment cost, operating cost, maintenance cost, energy-saving environmental protection device public subsidies and remanent value of equipment；Feature of environmental protection index is specific
Including dust discharge amount, SO2 emissions, CO2 emissions and nitrogen oxide emission；Risk index tool
Body includes policy risk and energy price volatility；Flexibility index refers specifically to heat load adjustment ability；Resource availability refers to
Mark the abundant degree of the used energy of confession under directions hot mode；The reliability of technical maturity index confession under directions hot mode technically.
Step 2, the economic index E for calculating heating project
The economic index E calculation formula of heating project is as follows:
E=I+O+F-W-Y (1)
Wherein, I is the initial investment expense of heating equipment；The operating cost expense of O heating equipment, F are its plant maintenance
Expense；W is subsidy of the country to energy-saving environmental protection device；Y is remanent value of equipment.
Wherein O calculation formula is as follows,
O=(P × Q/ ξ)/η (2)
Wherein, P is the price of the energy needed for heating equipment heats；ξ is the energy conversion efficiency of heating equipment；η is heat supply
The efficiency of mode；Q is the total heat duties amount during project operation.The efficiency of several typical case's heating equipments is as shown in the table.
Table 1
Step 3, the feature of environmental protection index for calculating heating project.
Feature of environmental protection index is characterized with gross contamination emission M, and calculation formula is as follows,
M=(γC+γN+γS+γ)×λ×(Q/ξ)/η (3)
Wherein, λ is the referring factor of the energy and standard coal equivalent needed for heating equipment；γC、γN、γS, γ be respectively one
The emission factor of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and dust that kilogram standard coal or combustion of natural gas generate, value
It can refer to following table.
Table 2
Step 4, the risk index for calculating heating project.
The risk of heating project mainly includes the fluctuation risk of environment protection energy-saving equipment subsidy policy risk and energy prices, wind
Dangerous index calculation formula is as follows:
R=(W-E (W))-(P-E (P)) × (Q/ ξ)/η (4)
Wherein, E (W) is the desired value that country subsidizes energy-saving environmental protection device when Future Project is implemented, including is disposably purchased
Install next choice patch w1W is subsidized with energy prices during heating2.Coal, diesel oil heat supply are non-energy saving and environment friendly, no this item risk；E(P)
For the desired value of Future Project operation stage energy prices, following formula can be used and calculate:
The energy prices p of nearest N is investigated respectivelyn, equipment subsidy w1,nW is subsidized with energy prices2,n(n=1,2 ...,
N), Δ p is enabledn=pn+1-pn,Δw1,n=w1,n+1-w1,n,Δw2,n=w2,n+1-w2,n.Energy prices, equipment subsidy, energy prices
Subsidy raising and lowering probability is determined by the average value of the raising and lowering of recent years, price and subsidize raising and lowering hundred
Ratio is divided to be determined by the average value of raising and lowering percentage recent years, calculation method is respectively such as following formula.
Wherein the corresponding each parameter of k=1,2,3. respectively indicates energy prices, equipment subsidized price, energy prices and subsidizes
Parameter.nk +And nk -The number that respectively parameter k is fluctuated in the N of investigation to upper fluctuation and downwards；gk +And gk -Respectively price
Rise amount and downward amount.
Step 5, the flexibility index for calculating heating project；
The flexibility index C of heating project, calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, P0For the heats power of heating equipment, Q0To calculate for thermic load needed for promoting unit temperature in thermal region
Formula is as follows.
Q0=c0ρ0V0 (10)
Wherein, c0For the specific heat of air, ρ0For the density of air, v0For volume of air.
Particularly, for central heating mode, due to heat supply relatively far away from, flexibility index is also for offset heat supply center
It is related with refrigerant flow rate v in heat supply pipeline with distance S, following formula calculating can be used.
Step 6, the resource availability index for calculating heating project
Resource availability index U indicates the rich degree of the storage capacity of the used energy of heat supply scheme.With the energy
The year production specific gravity in source indicates.
Step 7, the technical maturity index for calculating heating project
Technical maturity index is qualitative index.According to the technical locating popularization of each scheme heat-supplying mode, universal and commercialization
Three phases index value is taken as [1,3] respectively, [4,6], [7,9].The technical maturity index of various typical case's heat-supplying modes is as follows
Shown in table.
Table 3
Step 8 determines each dimension index weights using interval based AHP；
Firstly, being divided using each index calculated result as rule layer criterion p to the index lower and upper limit of scheme layered scheme i
A is not denoted as iti -And ai +.Shown method according to the following formula, the judgment matrix of construction rules p to solution layer are respectively A-={ a- ijAnd A+
={ a+ ij}。
Secondly, seeking A-And A+The corresponding normalization characteristic vector x with positive component of maximum eigenvaluei -And xi +。
Again, ratio coefficient k is calculated according to the following formulai, miAnd weight vectors ωp,i.All criterion are calculated to scheme
The weight vectors ω of layerp(p=1,2 .., P).
Again, by expert point rating method, destination layer is determined to the judgment matrix of rule layer, calculates its characteristic root bp, obtain
Weight vectors B={ b of the destination layer to rule layerp}。
Finally, calculating total weight according to following formula.
Step 9 determines each dimension index weights using section Principal Component Analysis；
Firstly, each principal component scores are calculated, are shown below using section Principal Component Analysis.
Secondly, calculating the weight mu of each scheme according to the following formula.
Step 10, the combining weights for calculating each alternative heat supply scheme；
The weight that two methods are calculated seeks its harmonic-mean, then calculates combining weights according to the following formula.
Wherein, ωiAnd μiRespectively indicate analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the weight of scheme i that Principal Component Analysis obtains.
Step 11, according to the combined weights weight values of each alternative heat supply scheme, each alternative is ranked up and is evaluated, choose
The maximum heat supply scheme of overall target is as preferred plan.
Effect of the invention is illustrated below with reference to a specific application example:
By taking certain hotel operating time limit is 10 years heating projects as an example, hotel heating area 400m2, heating period is total
120 days, during which day thermal load demands 420kWh.Now there are five alternative heat supply scheme, related data is as follows:
Alternative one: 60,000 cards/hour fully automatic fuel-oil normal-pressure hot-water boiler, heating load about 70kW, per small are selected
When oil consumption 4.5kg；
Alternative two: a forced circulation is selected to have pressure electric hot water boiler, electrical power 35kW, heating load 58kW；
Alternative three: region coal-burning boiler heat supply, heating cost are 42 yuan/m2.Boiler power is 400kW, coal used
For standard coal, calorific value 29307KJ/kg, about 8.14kWh/kg；
Alternative four: natural gas wall-hung boiler heat supply, power 30kW, heating value of natural gas 3558.8KJ/L, unit are changed
It is about 13.85kWh/kg after calculation, Gas Prices are about 3.36 yuan/kg；
Alternative five: Electric radiant Heating Film heat supply, selected Electric radiant Heating Film power is about 80kW.
As shown in Fig. 2, heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method of the invention is as follows:
S1: various dimensions index system is established；
The various dimensions index system of foundation, as shown in Fig. 1.Refer to including economic index, feature of environmental protection index, risk
Mark, flexibility index resource availability index and technical maturity index.Wherein, economic index specifically includes, initial stage
Investment cost, operating cost expense, maintenance cost, energy-saving environmental protection device public subsidies and remanent value of equipment.Feature of environmental protection index tool
Body includes dust discharge amount, SO2 emissions, CO2 emissions and nitrogen oxide emission.Risk index
It specifically includes, policy risk and energy price volatility.Flexibility index refers specifically to heat load adjustment ability.Resource can utilize item
The year total output value specific gravity of the energy used in index confession under directions heat.The advance of the technology of technical maturity index confession under directions hot mode.
S2: the economic index of heating project is calculated；
Heat supply scheme one, heat needed for the energy be diesel oil, price be 5.5 yuan/kg, heating efficiency 70kW/4.5kg, about
For 15.56kW/kg；Heat supply scheme two, the energy needed for heating are electric energy, and price is 0.48 yuan/kWh, heating efficiency 58kW/
35kW, about 1.66kW/kW.The three region coal-burning boiler heat supply of heat supply scheme, heating cost are 42 yuan/m2Coal used is standard
Coal, calorific value 29307kJ/kg, about 113.85kWh/kg, heat supply scheme four are the heat supply of natural gas wall-hung boiler, heating value of natural gas
For 3558.8Kj/L, about 13.85kWh/kg；Heat supply scheme five is Electric radiant Heating Film heat supply.It can be obtained according to formula (2), scheme one arrives
The general expenses of scheme five is as shown in the table, and ten thousand yuan of unit.
Table 4
Substitute into formula (1) can obtain, the economic index of five schemes respectively be 123.76~140.96 ten thousand yuan,
157.15~165.67 ten thousand yuan, 26.8 ten thousand yuan, 150.30~157.29 ten thousand yuan and 142.88~151.47 ten thousand yuan.
S3: the feature of environmental protection index of heating project is calculated；
Heat supply scheme one, the energy needed for heating are diesel oil, and the referring factor with standard coal is 1.4571；Two He of heat supply scheme
Scheme five, the energy needed for heating are electric energy, do not generate pollutant.Heat supply scheme three and scheme four according to Tables 1 and 2 numerical value into
Row calculate, can be obtained by formula (3), five scheme gross contamination emissions respectively be 182.4~206.7 tons, 0,271.1~
369.8 tons, 108.8~133.5 tons and 0.
S4: the risk index of heating project is calculated；
Heat supply scheme one and scheme three, non-energy conservation ring apparatus are not subsidized, no this item risk；Heat supply scheme two, scheme four
With scheme five, existing subsidy is 100,000 yuan.Energy prices and subsidy situation are as shown in the table in recent years for investigation.
Table 5
Substituting into formula (5) can obtain, and country sets energy conservation and environmental protection when the Future Project of two scheme four of scheme and scheme five is implemented
The desired value of next choice patch is 9.67 ten thousand yuan.
Substituting into formula (4) can obtain, the risk index of scheme one to scheme five is respectively 123.76~140.96 ten thousand yuan,
157.15~165.67 ten thousand yuan, 26.8 ten thousand yuan, 150.30~157.29 ten thousand yuan and 142.88~151.47.
S5: the flexibility index of heating project is calculated；
Heat supply scheme one, heating equipment are fuel-oil normal-pressure water-heating boiler, heats power 70kW；Heat supply scheme two, heating
Equipment is to have pressure electric hot water boiler, heats power 58kW.Four heating equipment of heat supply scheme is natural gas wall-hung boiler, and power is
The power of 30kW, five Electric radiant Heating Film heat supply of alternative, selected Electric radiant Heating Film are 80kW, can be obtained by formula (9)~(11), five schemes
Flexibility index respectively be 29.31,35.38,502.57,68.40 and 25.65.
S6: heating project resource availability index is calculated；
The production of the energy can be obtained by searching statistical yearbook, and all conversion is as shown in the table for specific gravity after standard coal.
Table 6
Known one ton of crude oil can about produce 0.383 ton of diesel oil, and one ton of raw coal can about produce 0.714 ton of standard coal, can must mark
Quasi- coal, diesel oil, the specific gravity of natural gas and electric power are as shown in the table.
Table 7
In turn, each scheme resource availability index can be obtained, as shown in the table.
Table 8
S7: the technical maturity index of heating project is calculated；
The typical heat-supplying mode investigated according to table 3, the technical maturity of available centralized solution are as shown in the table.
Table 9
S8: each dimension index weights are determined using interval based AHP；
Firstly, that the step according to S1 to S7 obtains as a result, using formula (12) construction rules layer sentencing to solution layer
Disconnected matrix.By taking economic index as an example, calculate separately to obtain its judgment matrix A for arriving solution layer-And A+As follows.
Secondly, seeking A-And A+The corresponding normalization characteristic vector x with positive component of maximum eigenvaluei -And xi +.With economy
For property index, as follows.
Again, according to formula (13), formula (14) and formula (15) be calculated all criterion to solution layer weight
Vector obtains:
Table 10
Again, by expert point rating method, destination layer is determined to the judgment matrix of rule layer, calculates its characteristic root bp, obtain
Weight vectors B={ b of the destination layer to rule layerp}。
Table 11
Finally, calculating total weight according to formula (16).
ωi=[(0.1401,0.1913) (0.1929,0.2290) (0.2504,0.2977) (0.1191,0.1556)
(0.2052,0.2426)]T
I=1,2 ..., 5
S9: each index weights are determined using section Principal Component Analysis；
Firstly, each scheme principal component scores are calculated and constitute vector using standard section principal component analytical method, it is as follows
It is shown.
zi=[(434.33,452.45) (521.25,574.73) (10.26,10.44) (445.74,474.64)
(525.85,578.83)]T
I=1,2 ..., 5
Secondly, calculating the weight of each scheme according to formula (18), it is as follows to obtain weight vectors.
μi=[(0.2157,0.2263) (0.2572,0.2860) (0.0051,0.0052) (0.2204,0.2354)
(0.2609,0.2880)]T
I=1,2 ..., 5
S10: the overall target of each alternative heat supply scheme is calculated；
It is shown below by the combining weights that formula (19) can obtain each scheme,
S11: heating project decision
According to the combined weights weight values of each alternative heat supply scheme, scheme two and 5 two kinds of the scheme overall targets with electric heat supply are equal
Preferably, the two slightly advantage of scheme five in comparison.
It is emphasized that embodiment of the present invention be it is illustrative, without being restrictive, therefore packet of the present invention
Include and be not limited to embodiment described in specific embodiment, it is all by those skilled in the art according to the technique and scheme of the present invention
The other embodiments obtained, also belong to the scope of protection of the invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method based on combining weights, it is characterised in that the following steps are included:
Step 1 establishes various dimensions index system, which includes economic index, feature of environmental protection index, risk
Index, flexibility index, resource availability index and technical maturity index；
Step 2, the economic index for calculating heating project；
Step 3, the feature of environmental protection index for calculating heating project；
Step 4, the risk index for calculating heating project；
Step 5, the flexibility index for calculating heating project；
Step 6, the resource availability index for calculating heating project；
Step 7, the technical maturity index for calculating heating project；
Step 8 determines each dimension index weights using interval based AHP；
Step 9 determines each dimension index weights using section Principal Component Analysis；
Step 10, the combining weights for calculating each alternative heat supply scheme；
Step 11, according to the combined weights weight values of each alternative heat supply scheme, each alternative is ranked up and is evaluated, choose synthesis
The maximum heat supply scheme of index is as preferred plan.
2. a kind of heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method based on combining weights according to claim 1, feature exist
In: the economic index include initial investment expense, operating cost, maintenance cost, energy-saving environmental protection device public subsidies and
Remanent value of equipment；The feature of environmental protection index includes dust discharge amount, SO2 emissions, CO2 emissions and nitrogen oxidation
Object discharge amount；The risk index includes policy risk and energy price volatility；The flexibility index is thermic load tune
Energy saving power；The resource availability index is used the abundant degree of the energy by heat-supplying mode；The technical maturity index
The reliability of confession under directions hot mode technically.
3. a kind of heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method based on combining weights according to claim 1, feature exist
In: the economic index E calculation formula is as follows:
E=I+O+F-W-Y
Wherein, I is the initial investment expense of heating equipment；The operating cost expense of O heating equipment, F are its equipment maintenance cost；
W is subsidy of the country to energy-saving environmental protection device；Y is remanent value of equipment；Wherein O calculation formula is as follows,
O=(P × Q/ ξ)/η
Wherein, P is the price of the energy needed for heating equipment heats；ξ is the energy conversion efficiency of heating equipment；η is heat-supplying mode
Efficiency；Q is the total heat duties amount during project operation；
The feature of environmental protection index is characterized with gross contamination emission M, and calculation formula is as follows:
M=(γC+γN+γS+γ)×λ×(Q/ξ)/η
Wherein, λ is the referring factor of the energy and standard coal equivalent needed for heating equipment；γC、γN、γS, γ be respectively one kilogram
The emission factor of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and dust that standard coal or combustion of natural gas generate；
The risk index includes the fluctuation risk of environment protection energy-saving equipment subsidy policy risk and energy prices, risk indicator meter
It is as follows to calculate formula:
R=(W-E (W))-(P-E (P)) × (Q/ ξ)/η
Wherein, E (W) is the desired value that country subsidizes energy-saving environmental protection device when Future Project is implemented, including disposably purchases and set
W is pasted in the next choice1W is subsidized with energy prices during heating2；E (P) is the desired value of Future Project operation stage energy prices, using such as
Lower formula calculates:
pn、w1,n、w2,nEnergy prices, equipment subsidy and the energy prices of respectively nearest N subsidize w2,n, n=1,2 ..., N；
Enable Δ pn=pn+1-pn,Δw1,n=w1,n+1-w1,n,Δw2,n=w2,n+1-w2,n；Energy prices, equipment subsidy, energy prices subsidy
The probability of raising and lowering determines by the average value of the raising and lowering of recent years, price and subsidy raising and lowering percentage
By recent years, the average value of raising and lowering percentage is determined, calculation method is respectively such as following formula.
Wherein k=1,2,3, corresponding each parameter respectively indicates energy prices, equipment subsidized price, the ginseng of energy prices subsidy
Number；nk +And nk -The number that respectively parameter k is fluctuated in the N of investigation to upper fluctuation and downwards；gk +And gk -Respectively in price
The amount of rising and downward amount；
The calculation formula of the flexibility index C is as follows:
Wherein, P0For the heats power of heating equipment, Q0For for thermic load needed for promoting unit temperature in thermal region, calculation formula
It is as follows:
Q0=c0ρ0V0
Wherein, c0For the specific heat of air, ρ0For the density of air, v0For volume of air；
The year production specific gravity of the resource availability index energy indicates；
The technical maturity index is according to the technical locating popularization of each scheme heat-supplying mode, universal and commercial three phases index
Value is taken as [1,3] respectively, [4,6], [7,9].
4. a kind of heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method based on combining weights according to claim 1, feature exist
In: the step 8 concrete methods of realizing the following steps are included:
(1) a is denoted as respectively to the index lower and upper limit of scheme layered scheme i using each index calculated result as rule layer criterion pi -
And ai +；The judgment matrix of construction rules p to solution layer is respectively A according to the following formula-={ a- ijAnd A+={ a+ ij}:
(2) A is sought-And A+The corresponding normalization characteristic vector x with positive component of maximum eigenvaluei -And xi +；
(3) ratio coefficient k is calculated according to the following formulai, miAnd weight vectors ωp,i, calculate all criterion to solution layer power
Weight vector ωp, p=1,2 .., P:
(4), by expert point rating method, destination layer is determined to the judgment matrix of rule layer, calculates its characteristic root bp, obtain destination layer pair
Weight vectors B={ the b of rule layerp}；
(5) total weight is calculated according to following formula:
5. a kind of heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method based on combining weights according to claim 1, feature exist
In: the step 9 concrete methods of realizing the following steps are included:
(1) section Principal Component Analysis is applied, is calculated as follows to obtain each principal component scores:
(2) the weight mu of each scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
6. a kind of heating project comprehensive evaluation analysis method based on combining weights according to claim 1, feature exist
In: the concrete methods of realizing of the step 10 are as follows: calculate the weight that step 8 and step 9 are calculated and seek its harmonic-mean, so
Calculate combining weights according to the following formula afterwards:
Wherein, ωiAnd μiRespectively indicate analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the weight of scheme i that Principal Component Analysis obtains.
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| CN110852609A (en) * | 2019-11-08 | 2020-02-28 | 国网电力科学研究院(武汉)能效测评有限公司 | Method and system for regional comprehensive suitability evaluation of cooling and heating technology |
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| CN106875089A (en) * | 2017-01-10 | 2017-06-20 | 国网天津市电力公司 | A kind of heating project Synthetic Decision Method |
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| CN106875089A (en) * | 2017-01-10 | 2017-06-20 | 国网天津市电力公司 | A kind of heating project Synthetic Decision Method |
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| CN111126863A (en) * | 2019-12-26 | 2020-05-08 | 沈阳建筑大学 | Evaluation system and method of passive energy and active energy supply in public institutions |
| CN111598418A (en) * | 2020-04-29 | 2020-08-28 | 思创数码科技股份有限公司 | Balance-based item sorting method, balance-based item sorting device, balance-based item sorting equipment and storage medium |
| CN111815114A (en) * | 2020-06-04 | 2020-10-23 | 中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司 | Comprehensive evaluation method for solar composite gas heating system |
| CN112819354A (en) * | 2021-02-08 | 2021-05-18 | 中国地质调查局沈阳地质调查中心 | Method and device for evaluating competitiveness of oversea mining project |
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Application publication date: 20190315 |