CN108596372A - Long-distance passenger transportation smallclothes fast freight cost accounting freight rate formulates aid decision-making system and method - Google Patents

Abstract

The embodiment of the present invention provides an auxiliary decision-making system and method for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express transport, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation. The system includes: a model module, a view module, and a controller module. The controller module is connected to the model module and the view module respectively. The view module obtains the user's input information, judges which model module to use for processing according to the user request in the input information, and then feeds back to which view module to display the output information after processing. The present invention can utilize the traffic volume prediction sub-module, the cost accounting sub-module and the freight rate formulation sub-module to make auxiliary decisions on the traffic volume forecast, cost accounting and freight rate formulation of long-distance passenger transport of small and medium-sized goods, and realize long-distance passenger transport of small and medium-sized goods informatization and intelligence.

Description

Auxiliary decision-making system and method for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express transport, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation

technical field

The invention relates to the technical field of information systems, in particular to an auxiliary decision-making system and method for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express transport, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation.

Background technique

Small express delivery means that the departure passenger station transports the small luggage or articles entrusted by passengers or shippers to the destination passenger station along with the departure and arrival of the bus through the luggage compartment of the passenger car, and the goods are delivered to the destination passenger station by the arrival station. The passenger terminal delivers the express item to the recipient.

Auxiliary decision-making system is a computer application system that assists decision-makers to make semi-structured or unstructured decisions through human-computer interaction through data, models and knowledge. It is an advanced information management system produced by the development of MIS (Management Information System, Management Information System) to a higher level. It provides an environment for decision makers to analyze problems, build models, and simulate decision-making processes and programs, and calls various information resources and analysis tools to help decision makers improve their decision-making level and quality.

The infrastructure construction and market expansion of high-speed railways and intercity railways have led to the loss of long-distance passenger transport on highways, and the actual load rate of passenger stations has decreased year by year. With the rapid development of e-commerce, the rapid transportation industry has attracted great attention, and the express delivery of small goods by road has gradually become one of the important profit models of passenger stations.

At present, my country's small-piece express enterprises are facing the process of transforming from the traditional logistics industry to the modern logistics industry, but the information level of small-piece express enterprises is generally low, and the small-piece express management system of most enterprises only includes simple waybill management, arrival Management, cargo record query and other basic functions. In addition, passenger stations are still relatively rigid in formulating express freight rates. Compared with express delivery companies that generally set freight rates based on regional routes and time-of-delivery, they are less attractive to the supply of goods.

To realize the comprehensive information management of long-distance highway passenger transport, especially the information interconnection between passenger stations, between passenger stations and transportation companies, and between passenger stations and the government, it is necessary to popularize and apply basic information technology in various roles and departments. In addition, some scholars have begun to pay attention to the road small-piece express market in terms of pricing for small-piece express transportation, and have proposed theoretical research on costs and freight rates. The subject of pricing is not clear, and it is impossible to formulate a freight rate suitable for the development of the enterprise's transportation business based on the actual situation. It is urgent to integrate the freight rate system and formulate a competitive price system. On the other hand, the business informatization of highway long-distance passenger stations is gradually unfolding, but the mining and integration of relevant historical data is still blank.

Therefore, it is necessary to combine the informatization and intelligent development of the basic business of road transportation, in the process of exploring the balance between setting high-quality prices to attract freight volume and maximizing the profitability of passenger stations, to design and develop a system based on traffic volume forecasting, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation The auxiliary decision-making system solves the problems encountered in the development of the small cargo express business, that is, the lack of a unified standard for the formulation of freight rates, and the lack of data mining and integration.

Contents of the invention

Embodiments of the present invention provide an auxiliary decision-making system and method for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express freight cost accounting, and freight rate formulation, so as to solve the above-mentioned problems in the background technology.

In order to achieve the above object, the present invention has taken the following technical solutions:

One aspect of the present invention provides an auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express transport, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation.

An embodiment of the present invention provides an auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express freight cost accounting, and freight rate formulation, which is characterized in that the system includes: a model module, a view module and a controller module, and the controller module is connected to a model module is connected to said view module;

The model module is used to store and process data, including: a traffic volume prediction sub-module, a cost accounting sub-module, and a freight rate formulation sub-module, which are respectively used for traffic volume forecasting, cost accounting, and freight rates of long-distance passenger transport of small and medium-sized goods. Formulate and carry out calculation processing;

The view module is used to display data and perform user interaction, obtain user input information, and display required information to the user;

The controller module is used to process business logic, judge which sub-module in the model module is used for processing according to the user input information received in the view module, and feed back the processed information to the view module.

Preferably,

The traffic volume prediction sub-module is used to make statistics on the waybill data accumulated in the business process, and obtain the historical annual cargo volume of the whole station and different routes as the original data;

Select the impact indicators that will affect the transportation volume during the forecast period, and input the specific impact factor data in these impact indicators;

Combined with the characteristics of the line, the corresponding prediction model is used to predict the traffic volume, the traffic volume forecast map is drawn, and the detailed values are displayed for the operator to evaluate the change trend of the predicted traffic volume.

Preferably, the forecasting model includes at least one or more of the following models: time series forecasting, regression analysis forecasting or gray forecasting;

The time series prediction adopts the exponential smoothing method, and the exponential smoothing method uses the weighted average of the actual observed value in the current period and the exponential smoothing value in the previous period as the exponential smoothing value in the current period, and so on, using the time series to calculate the future forecast value for the period;

Using quadratic exponential smoothing, a straight line equation is established to realize numerical prediction in the future period, and the calculation formula is:

In the formula, α is the smoothing coefficient, is an exponential smoothing value, is the quadratic exponential smoothing value;

The predictive model is:

In the formula, b _t is the slope at time t.

Preferably,

The cost accounting sub-module is used to enter and count variable cost items and variable cost data; to enter and count fixed cost items and fixed cost data; cost amount;

Calculate the accounting cost in the future forecast period, the accounting cost includes: fixed cost and variable cost in the future forecast period, the fixed cost in the future forecast period is obtained through asset item accounting, and the variable cost in the future forecast period is obtained through the trend predicted.

Preferably, the depreciation calculation methods include: straight-line depreciation method and accelerated depreciation method;

The straight-line depreciation method is used to calculate the depreciation of the first category of fixed assets. The first category of fixed assets includes: auxiliary fixed assets and management tools, using the original value of the fixed asset minus the estimated net residual value, and then dividing by The calculation formula for the service life is as follows:

In the formula, C(t) _1k is the fixed cost of item k of the first category in year t, D(t) _1k is the depreciation expense of item k of the first category in year t, and A _1k is the depreciation expense of item k in the first category. The original value of item k of fixed assets, B _1k is the estimated net residual value of item k of the first category of fixed assets, and T _1k is the useful life of item k of the first category of fixed assets;

The accelerated depreciation method is used to calculate the depreciation of the second category of fixed assets. The second category of fixed assets is mechanical equipment fixed assets, and the calculation formula is as follows:

C(t) _2k ＝D(t) _2k ＝(A _2k -B _2k )·d _t (5)

In the formula, C(t) _2k is the fixed cost of item k of the second category in year t, and D(t) _2k is the depreciation fee for item k of the second category in year t. A _2k is the fixed cost of item k in the second category The original value of the asset, B _2k is the estimated net residual value of the k-th fixed asset in the second category, t is the service life of the equipment, d _t is the depreciation rate of the equipment in the t-th year, and T is the optimal depreciation period of the equipment .

Preferably, the freight rate setting sub-module includes: a freight rate specification model based on transportation volume and cost and a freight rate specification model based on transportation demand curve;

The freight rate designation model based on traffic volume and cost: in the early stage, entropy value method and evaluation index are used to divide routes and cost allocation, and based on the hot line and cold line, the average cost pricing method and the marginal cost pricing method are respectively used for calculation;

The freight rate designation model based on the transportation demand curve: according to the characteristics of different routes, construct the curve function between the transportation demand and the freight rate, and calculate the freight rate and the expected profit value under the maximization of revenue.

Preferably, the model module further includes: an identity authentication sub-module, which is used for identity authentication of internal management personnel.

Another aspect of the present invention provides an auxiliary decision-making method for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express transport, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation.

An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for using an auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transportation, small-piece express transportation, cost accounting, and tariff formulation, which is characterized in that the method includes:

The user accesses the view module on the Web server through the Internet, routers and firewalls, checks the information of small express shipments and submits the online waybill;

The internal management personnel enter the auxiliary decision-making system, after identity authentication, enter the operation page, process the business logic through the controller module, call the corresponding function sub-module in the model module, perform business operations on the database server, and complete the small The on-site acceptance business of express shipments and the operation of processing online waybills.

Preferably, the internal management personnel enter the auxiliary decision-making system, and after identity authentication, enter the operation page, process the business logic through the controller module, call the corresponding function sub-module in the model module, and send the database server Carry out business operations, complete the on-site acceptance business of small express shipments and process online waybill operations, including:

Enter the operation page of traffic volume forecast, call the traffic volume forecast sub-module in the model module, query the traffic volume information of small express shipments according to the year, and add, delete and modify the traffic volume information of previous years. After the volume information is entered, select the forecasting method to obtain the year-volume line graph of the volume forecast result;

Enter the cost accounting operation page, call the cost accounting sub-module in the model module, search according to the start and end years, select "year" or "quarter" or "month" as the minimum time span, and list the depreciation amount, Variable cost and total cost, according to the start and end depreciation time of fixed asset items and the change trend of variable cost items, calculate the cost value and line chart for the next two years;

Enter the operation page of freight rate formulation, call the freight rate formulation sub-module in the model module, select the year, route and pricing method, and enter the real-time oil price and expected profit in advance when selecting the freight rate formulation model based on transportation volume and cost rate, and read other data from the volume prediction sub-module and the cost accounting sub-module to obtain the unit average cost pricing and unit marginal cost pricing of the line. When modeling, pre-fill three or more groups of traffic volume-price data tables to obtain the fitting curve, fitting equation and optimal unit freight price of demand pricing, and display unit average cost pricing and unit marginal cost pricing for comparison .

As can be seen from the technical solutions provided by the above-mentioned embodiments of the present invention, the embodiments of the present invention are based on the MVC model, design and develop an auxiliary decision-making system based on traffic volume forecasting, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation, effectively helping highway long-distance passenger stations to make decisions. Make reasonable decisions, improve management level, and enhance market competitiveness. The present invention can also realize freight networking in combination with Internet technology, and fully tap the market potential of highway small-piece cargo express transportation.

Additional aspects and advantages of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and will become apparent from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention.

Description of drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the following will briefly introduce the accompanying drawings that need to be used in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the accompanying drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention. For Those of ordinary skill in the art can also obtain other drawings based on these drawings without any creative effort.

Fig. 1 is a flow chart of accepting the small cargo express business of long-distance highway passenger transport provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 2 is a system architecture diagram of an auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transport small-piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 3 is a network topology diagram of an auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transport small-piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 4 is the calling program diagram of the secondary exponential smoothing method of a kind of long-distance passenger transport small piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system provided by the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 5 is the implementation program diagram of the secondary exponential smoothing method of a kind of long-distance passenger transport small piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system provided by the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 6 is a traffic forecasting interface diagram of a long-distance passenger transport small piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system provided by the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 7 is an interface diagram of the traffic forecast result interface diagram of a kind of long-distance passenger transport small piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system provided by the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 8 is a program diagram of the average life method depreciation algorithm of a kind of long-distance passenger transport small piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system provided by the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 9 is a depreciation algorithm program diagram of the sum of years' number method depreciation algorithm of a kind of long-distance passenger transport small piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system provided by the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 10 is a cost accounting interface diagram of a long-distance passenger transport small piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system provided by the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 11 is a cost accounting result interface diagram of a long-distance passenger transport small piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system provided by the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 12 is a freight rate formulation interface diagram of a long-distance passenger transport small piece express cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system provided by the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 13 is a processing flow chart of an auxiliary decision-making method for long-distance passenger transport small-piece express cost calculation freight rate formulation provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 14 is a structural block diagram of an auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express transport, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed ways

Embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below, examples of which are shown in the drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals designate the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions throughout. The embodiments described below by referring to the figures are exemplary only for explaining the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the present invention.

Those skilled in the art will understand that unless otherwise stated, the singular forms "a", "an", "said" and "the" used herein may also include plural forms. It should be further understood that the word "comprising" used in the description of the present invention refers to the presence of said features, integers, steps, operations, elements and/or components, but does not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, Integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof. It will be understood that when an element is referred to as being "connected" or "coupled" to another element, it can be directly connected or coupled to the other element or intervening elements may also be present. Additionally, "connected" or "coupled" as used herein may include wirelessly connected or coupled. As used herein, the term "and/or" includes any and all combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

Those skilled in the art can understand that, unless otherwise defined, all terms (including technical and scientific terms) used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. It should also be understood that terms such as those defined in commonly used dictionaries should be understood to have a meaning consistent with the meaning in the context of the prior art, and will not be interpreted in an idealized or overly formal sense unless defined as herein explain.

In order to facilitate the understanding of the embodiments of the present invention, several specific embodiments will be taken as examples for further explanation below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, and each embodiment does not constitute a limitation to the embodiments of the present invention.

Embodiment one

The embodiment of the present invention provides an auxiliary decision-making system and method for long-distance passenger transport small-piece express cost calculation freight rate formulation, which helps highway long-distance passenger transport stations make reasonable decisions, improves management levels, enhances market competitiveness, and fully taps road small-piece express freight. market potential.

An aspect of the embodiments of the present invention provides an auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express transport, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation.

A structural block diagram of an auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation provided by an embodiment of the present invention is shown in Figure 14. The system includes: a model module, a view module, and a controller module, and the controller module is connected with The model module is connected to the view module.

The specific content of each module of the system is as follows:

(1) Model module

The model module is used to store and process data, including: traffic volume forecasting sub-module, cost accounting sub-module and freight rate formulation sub-module, which respectively calculate the traffic volume forecast, cost accounting and freight rate formulation of long-distance passenger transportation of small and medium-sized goods deal with. The model module also includes: an identity authentication sub-module, which is used for identity authentication of internal managers. The model module can use Hibernate technology to handle the process of database access.

A. Volume forecasting sub-module

The traffic volume forecast sub-module includes: making statistics on the waybill data accumulated in the business process, obtaining the historical annual freight volume of the whole station and different routes as the original data; selecting the impact indicators that will affect the traffic volume during the forecast period, and Input the data of the specific influencing factors in these influencing indicators; combined with the characteristics of the line, adopt the corresponding forecasting model to predict the traffic volume, draw the traffic volume forecast map, and display the detailed values for the operator to evaluate the change trend of the predicted traffic volume.

The forecasting model includes at least one or more of the following models: time series forecasting, regression analysis forecasting or gray forecasting.

The time series prediction adopts the exponential smoothing method. The exponential smoothing method uses the weighted average of the actual observation value in the current period and the exponential smoothing value in the previous period as the exponential smoothing value in the current period, and so on, using the time series to calculate the future period Predictive value.

Using quadratic exponential smoothing, a straight line equation is established to realize numerical prediction in the future period, and the calculation formula is:

In the formula, α is the smoothing coefficient, is an exponential smoothing value, is the quadratic exponential smoothing value.

The predictive model is:

In the formula, b _t is the slope at time t.

B. Cost accounting sub-module

The cost accounting sub-module includes: input and statistics of variable cost items and variable cost data; input and statistics of fixed cost items and fixed cost data; calculate the cost corresponding to different time lengths according to the depreciation calculation method; Calculate the accounting cost in the future forecast period, the accounting cost includes: fixed cost and variable cost in the future forecast period, the fixed cost in the future forecast period is obtained through asset item accounting, and the variable cost in the future forecast period is obtained through the trend predicted.

Depreciation calculation methods, including: straight-line depreciation method and accelerated depreciation method.

Straight-line depreciation method, used for depreciation calculation of the first category of fixed assets, the first category of fixed assets includes: auxiliary fixed assets and management tools, using the original value of the fixed assets minus the estimated net residual value, and then divided by the useful life ,Calculated as follows:

In the formula, C(t) _1k is the fixed cost of item k of the first category in year t, D(t) _1k is the depreciation expense of item k of the first category in year t, and A _1k is the depreciation expense of item k in the first category. The original value of item k of fixed assets, B _1k is the estimated net residual value of item k of the first category of fixed assets, and T _1k is the service life of item k of the first category of fixed assets.

The accelerated depreciation method is used to calculate the depreciation of the second category of fixed assets. The second category of fixed assets is mechanical equipment fixed assets, and the calculation formula is as follows:

C(t) _2k ＝D(t) _2k ＝(A _2k -B _2k )·d _t (5)

In the formula, C(t) _2k is the fixed cost of item k of the second category in year t, and D(t) _2k is the depreciation fee for item k of the second category in year t. A _2k is the fixed cost of item k in the second category The original value of the asset, B _2k is the estimated net residual value of the k-th fixed asset in the second category, t is the service life of the equipment, d _t is the depreciation rate of the equipment in the t-th year, and T is the optimal depreciation period of the equipment .

C. Freight rate setting sub-module

Freight rate formulation sub-module, including: freight rate designation model based on traffic volume and cost: in the early stage, entropy value method and evaluation index are used to divide routes and cost allocation, and based on hot lines and cold lines, average cost pricing method and marginal cost pricing are adopted respectively Calculation based on the transportation demand curve; freight rate designation model based on the transportation demand curve: according to the characteristics of different routes, the curve function between the transportation demand and the freight rate is constructed, and the freight rate and the expected profit value under the maximization of revenue are calculated.

(2) View module

The view module is used to display data and perform user interaction, obtain user input information, and display required information to the user. The view module is displayed to the user by using the Bootstrap framework.

(3) Controller module

The controller module is used to process the business logic, judge which sub-module in the model module is used for processing according to the user input information received in the view module, and feed back the processed information to the view module. The controller module uses the Struts framework for business logic processing.

In terms of system architecture, this system can also consider using the PHP development language instead of JAVA, and use the internationally common LAMP (Linux+Apache+Mysql+Php) development architecture.

Another aspect of the embodiments of the present invention provides an auxiliary decision-making method for long-distance passenger transportation, small-piece express transportation, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation.

Figure 13 shows the processing flow chart of a long-distance passenger transport small piece express freight cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making method provided by the embodiment of the present invention. The method includes:

S131: The user accesses the view module on the Web server through the Internet, routers and firewalls, checks the information of the small-ship express and submits the online waybill.

S132: The internal management personnel enter the auxiliary decision-making system, and after identity authentication, enter the operation page, process business logic through the controller module, call the corresponding function sub-module in the model module, and perform business operations on the database server, Complete the on-site acceptance of small express shipments and the online waybill processing.

(1) Enter the traffic volume forecasting operation page, call the traffic volume forecast sub-module in the model module, query the traffic volume information of small express shipments according to the year, and add, delete and modify the traffic volume information over the years, When the traffic volume information over the years has been entered completely, select the forecast method to obtain the year-traffic volume line chart of the traffic volume forecast results.

(2) Enter the cost accounting operation page, call the cost accounting sub-module in the model module, search according to the start and end years, select "year" or "quarter" or "month" as the minimum time span, and list the items within the time range Depreciation amount, variable cost and total cost, according to the start and end depreciation time of fixed asset items and the change trend of variable cost items, calculate the cost value and line chart for the next two years.

(3) Enter the operation page of freight rate formulation, call the freight rate formulation sub-module in the model module, select the year, route and pricing method, and enter the real-time oil price in advance when selecting the freight rate formulation model based on transportation volume and cost , expected profit rate, and read other data from the volume forecasting sub-module and the cost accounting sub-module to obtain the unit average cost pricing and unit marginal cost pricing of the line, when the volume-pricing curve based When formulating the freight rate model, pre-fill three or more sets of freight volume-price data tables to obtain the fitting curve, fitting equation and optimal unit freight price of demand pricing, and display unit average cost pricing and unit marginal cost Pricing for comparison.

Embodiment two

This embodiment provides an auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transport small-piece express cost calculation freight rate formulation. The application background of this system is small-piece express delivery in highway long-distance passenger transport. The complete small-piece express acceptance process of a long-distance passenger station is shown in the figure 1, the details are as follows:

(1) The owner of the cargo fills in the basic requirements according to the transportation agreement at the station, mainly including the receiving address, the attributes of the goods, and whether the price is guaranteed or not.

(2) The weight of the goods is weighed by equipment such as a weighbridge and a tape measure. After the packaging is matched, the weight, volume attributes and corresponding freight information are automatically returned to the business acceptance client port through sensing.

(3) The business acceptor enters the above information into the small cargo express management information system, and prints out the acceptance form including freight information.

(4) After paying the fee for the cargo acceptance form, the toll collector prints the cargo label and the waybill to the cargo owner. The cargo label is a summary of the cargo information, including the name of the cargo, the quantity of the cargo, the originating station and the terminal station information, which is convenient for the cargo to enter and exit the warehouse. Intuitive management. The waybill includes complete consignment information such as the properties of the goods and the method of payment.

(5) After the consignment staff paste the label on the outer package of the goods, they will carry out the security inspection of the goods and move them into the warehouse, and the arrival manager will enter the information of the arrival of the goods.

(6) The dispatching administrator promptly assembles the small goods to the corresponding transport vehicles, and prints the goods handover form.

(7) Consignment field personnel sort out the cargo handover form according to the assembly plan issued by the dispatcher, and go to the warehouse to pick up the goods. The pick-up manager verifies the documents, supervises the process of picking up the goods, and enters the delivery information of the goods.

(8) The consignment field personnel guide the stevedores to load the goods into the designated vehicles, and check and hand over the goods with the driver of the bus.

(9) The goods are transported, arrive at the terminal, and are delivered to the consignee, and the entire business process ends.

The system includes a model module, a view module and a controller module. The entire system architecture is shown in Figure 2. Based on the MVC (Model-View-Controller, Model-View-Controller) design pattern, Java language and B/S mode are mainly used. , Bootstrap front-end framework, Struts plus Hibernate framework for development work. The MVC design pattern separates the input, processing and output of the system. When optimizing the user interface, there is no need to modify the business logic, resulting in unnecessary time consumption. The model module often refers to the component part that stores and processes data, while the model module object is used to access data in the database; the view module is the part that displays data and realizes user interaction, and forwards the request submitted by the user to the controller for processing ; The controller module is usually used to obtain user input information, judge which model to use for processing according to the received user request, and then feed back to which view to display output information after processing.

Among them, the model module uses Hibernate technology to handle the database access process, the controller module uses the Struts framework to process business logic, and the view module uses the Bootstrap framework to display to users.

The network topology diagram of this system is shown in Figure 3. The security of the data content transmission process is guaranteed through the deployment of routers and firewalls in the auxiliary decision-making system. Public users can access the system Web server through the Internet, routers and firewalls to view information and submit For online waybills, internal management personnel can only implement business operations on the database server after identity authentication, and complete operations related to the express delivery of small goods, including on-site acceptance of business and processing of online waybills.

The model module of the system includes three functional sub-modules of traffic volume forecasting, cost accounting and freight rate formulation, which realize the core functions of auxiliary decision-making.

(1) The principle of traffic volume forecasting and the function realization of the traffic volume forecasting sub-module

The auxiliary decision-making system of the small-piece express business in the highway long-distance passenger station revolves around the decision-making of freight rates, and all auxiliary decision-making factors need to be analyzed comprehensively. Among them, the traffic volume is one of the important factors influencing the formulation of the freight rate. The station should adjust the transportation price in a timely manner according to the changes in the traffic volume demand of different lines and different cycles, so as to improve the income of the express delivery of small goods. Therefore, the traffic volume forecast is an auxiliary One of the basic functions of the decision system.

The main task of the traffic forecasting sub-module in this system is: to make statistics on the waybill data accumulated in the business process, to obtain the historical annual freight volume of the whole station and different routes as the original data; Influence indicators such as economic development, competition degree, etc., and input the data of these influencing factors; combined with the characteristics of the line, adopt different forecasting models such as time series method, regression analysis method, gray forecasting method to predict the traffic volume, and draw a traffic volume forecast map. And display detailed values for operators to evaluate the trend of forecasted traffic volume.

Among them, the representative algorithm of traffic volume forecasting is as follows: Exponential smoothing method, as a method of time series forecasting, mainly obtains the weighted average of the actual observation value in the current period and the exponential smoothing value in the previous period as the exponential smoothing value in the current period, By analogy, the time series is realized to calculate the forecast value of the future period. The quadratic exponential smoothing is used to establish the linear equation to realize the numerical prediction of the future period. Its calculation formula is:

In the formula, is an exponential smoothing value, is the quadratic exponential smoothing value.

The predictive model is:

Combined with the rapid growth trend of small express shipment volume changes, this system intends to use the quadratic exponential smoothing method to analyze and predict the volume, and the implementation code in the auxiliary decision-making system is shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5.

The traffic volume forecasting function is realized as follows: Click "Traffic Volume Forecast" in the "Auxiliary Decision-Making" menu bar to enter the traffic volume forecast page, which can be queried according to the year, and click [Add], [Delete], [ Modify】button to add, delete, modify and query the traffic volume information over the years, and the person who fills in is bound to the system account. When the traffic volume information over the years has been entered, select the appropriate forecasting method and click the [Traffic Volume Forecast] button to enter the traffic volume forecast result page. The volume forecast interface is shown in Figure 6.

Enter the traffic forecast results page, the page visually displays the line chart of the traffic volume, the horizontal dotted line is the average value, when the mouse moves to different years, the corresponding traffic volume can be displayed, and the auxiliary functions in the upper right corner include drawing auxiliary lines and switching column charts , save as a picture, etc., click [Back] to return to the volume forecast interface. The traffic volume forecast result interface is shown in Figure 7.

(2) The principle of cost accounting and the function realization of the cost accounting sub-module

Among the auxiliary decision-making factors of the small cargo express business in the highway long-distance passenger station, the cost also has an important influence on the formulation of the freight rate. The freight rate should be set at least higher than the operating cost of the small-piece express business at the station, so as to obtain a certain profit, otherwise it will cause continuous losses, and eventually make the station-related business unsustainable. Therefore, cost accounting is one of the basic functions of the auxiliary decision-making system. The station can use the system to calculate the costs related to the express delivery of small goods, thereby assisting in the realization of transportation price decisions.

The cost items related to the small cargo express business can be divided into variable cost items and fixed cost items. Personnel costs, maintenance costs, operating indirect costs, etc. are all variable costs in the operation of the passenger station, which can be obtained by direct superposition of various items; while depreciation costs refer to the depreciation costs of fixed facilities and equipment during the production process of the passenger station. Depreciation proceeds are also called fixed costs.

The cost accounting sub-module of this system will realize the following main functions: input and statistics of data such as variable cost item name, annual cost, monthly cost, etc.; fixed asset name, quantity, purchase cost, net residual value, service life, start and end years Input and statistics of data such as month and depreciation method; according to different depreciation methods, depreciate fixed assets and add them to variable costs to obtain cost amounts for different years, quarters, and months; for fixed costs in the forecast period, take The asset item is calculated, and the variable cost is predicted by a certain trend, so as to obtain the accounting cost in the future forecast period.

Among them, the cost accounting representative algorithm is implemented as follows:

Straight-line depreciation method: During the use of auxiliary fixed assets and management tools, the wear and tear is less affected by the freight volume and work intensity, and can be classified as the first type of fixed asset depreciation. Such depreciation can be apportioned more evenly using the average life method. That is to use the original value of the fixed asset minus the estimated net salvage value, and then divide it by the useful life. The calculation formula is:

In the formula: C(t) _1k is the fixed cost of item k of the first category in year t, D(t) _1k is the depreciation expense of item k of the first category in year t, and A _1k is the depreciation expense of item k in the first category. The original value of item k of fixed assets, B _1k is the estimated net residual value of item k of the first category of fixed assets, and T _1k is the service life of item k of the first category of fixed assets.

Accelerated depreciation method: fixed assets of machinery and equipment will produce certain mechanical wear and tear over time, which will affect the work efficiency in the later period, and the maintenance cost will increase year by year, so it can be classified as the second type of fixed asset depreciation. There are many accelerated depreciation methods, such as the sum of years' digits method.

C(t) _2k ＝D(t) _2k ＝(A _2k -B _2k )·d _t (5)

In the formula: C(t) _2k is the fixed cost of the equipment of item k of the second category in year t, D(t) _2k is the depreciation fee of the equipment of item k of the second category in year t, and t is the service life of the equipment; d _t is the depreciation rate of the equipment in the t-th year, and T is the optimal depreciation period of the equipment.

The program implementations of the average number of years method depreciation algorithm and the sum of years' digits method depreciation algorithm are shown in Figures 8 and 9.

The cost accounting function is implemented as follows: Click "Cost Accounting" in the "Auxiliary Decision-making" in the menu bar to enter the cost accounting page, which can be searched according to the start and end years, and "year", "quarter" and "month" can be selected as the The minimum time span, listing the depreciation amount, variable cost and total cost within the time range, the data are all taken from the entry items of "variable cost" and "fixed assets". In addition, click the [Cost Accounting] button to enter the cost accounting result page. The cost accounting interface is shown in Figure 10.

Enter the cost accounting result page, in addition to the statistics of the cost value over the years, the system will also calculate the cost value of the next two years according to the start and end depreciation time of the fixed asset item and the change trend of the variable cost item, and draw a line chart. The cost accounting result interface is shown in Figure 11.

(3) The principle of freight rate formulation and the realization of the functions of the freight rate formulation sub-module

The price of cargo transportation is affected by many factors. In order to formulate a reasonable freight rate mechanism, it is necessary to analyze the key factors that affect the formation of prices. The influencing factors can be roughly divided into two categories. The internal factors are mainly the cost of cargo transportation, including highway long-distance passenger stations and long-distance transportation companies; the external factors include transportation market demand, competition conditions, cargo owners' affordability, and national policies.

With reference to traffic volume forecasting and cost accounting, reasonable formulation of transportation prices can be achieved, aiming to explore and formulate high-quality prices to achieve the goals of attracting more freight traffic, meeting business operating costs, and maximizing the profitability of passenger terminals.

The main functions of the freight rate formulation sub-module are as follows: freight rate decision based on traffic volume and cost, route division and cost allocation through entropy method and evaluation index in the early stage, average cost pricing method and marginal cost pricing based on hot line and cold line respectively method to calculate. Based on the freight rate decision of the transportation demand curve, according to the characteristics of different routes, the curve function between the transportation demand and the freight rate is constructed, and the freight rate and the expected profit value under the maximization of revenue are calculated.

The freight rate setting function is implemented as follows: Click "Freight Rate Setting" in the "Auxiliary Decision-Making" menu bar to enter the freight rate setting page, select the year, route, and pricing method on this page, and the system will select the corresponding year and route. Freight rates are calculated using volume forecast and costing values. The freight rate formulation interface is shown in Figure 12.

When the pricing method selects "Freight rate formulation model based on traffic volume and cost", the real-time oil price and expected profit margin need to be entered in advance, and other data can be read from the system traffic volume and cost module. After completing the filling, click [Calculate] ] button to obtain the unit average cost pricing and unit marginal cost pricing of the line.

When the pricing method selects "Freight rate formulation model based on volume-pricing curve", at least three additional sets of volume-price data need to be filled in to fit the demand pricing curve. After all the data is filled in, click [Calculate] and the system will give the fitting equation and the optimal unit freight rate, and display unit average cost pricing and unit marginal cost pricing for comparison.

Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:

(1) Provide a theoretical basis and an application platform for establishing a reasonable pricing mechanism for express delivery of small goods.

The auxiliary decision-making system provided by the present invention, combined with a variety of traffic volume forecasting, cost accounting and freight rate formulation model methods, has not only studied the pricing mechanism suitable for long-distance highway passenger transport of small and medium-sized goods, but also provides an information system as a way to apply the theory to The platform in the actual business is of great significance to link theory with practice in the field of small cargo express.

(2) The auxiliary passenger station can flexibly adjust freight rates to increase market share and market competitiveness.

The auxiliary decision-making system provided by the present invention, according to the traffic volume and competitiveness of the lines sent to different regions by the passenger station, carries out cost allocation accounting and transportation price formulation, which can be subdivided into years, seasons, and months so as to flexibly adjust the freight rate, fully Attract the source of goods and improve the market share and market competitiveness of highway express delivery of small goods.

(3) Analyze traffic volume and cost data, give auxiliary decision-making suggestions, and improve management level.

The auxiliary decision-making system provided by the present invention is not only used for formulating freight rates for express freight of small pieces of goods, but also has the functions of freight volume forecasting and cost accounting, provides data support for the decision-making process of the management team, and improves the management level of the passenger station. Among them, the traffic volume forecast can monitor the traffic volume change trend of the entire passenger station and the lines it sends to, analyze the characteristics of the superior lines with large traffic volume and the inferior lines with small traffic volume, and adopt different expansion strategies. Improve market share; cost accounting can count various cost expenditures related to the small cargo express business at passenger stations, including the selection of depreciation methods for fixed assets and the records of variable costs over the years, and strictly control unreasonable cost expenditures. Reduce the overall operating cost of the small cargo express business at the passenger terminal and increase the profit margin.

To sum up, the embodiment of the present invention realizes the operation upgrade and information sharing of the internal and external network by adopting the MVC design mode, and can perform online system user authority management, consignment business integration process and statistical settlement report generation, etc., using The traffic volume forecasting sub-module, cost accounting sub-module and freight rate formulation sub-module make auxiliary decisions on traffic volume forecasting, cost accounting, and freight rate formulation for long-distance passenger transport of small and medium-sized goods, providing decision support for business personnel and realizing long-distance passenger transport Informatization and intelligentization of small and medium-sized cargo transportation.

Those skilled in the art can understand that the accompanying drawing is only a schematic diagram of an embodiment, and the modules or processes in the accompanying drawing are not necessarily necessary for implementing the present invention.

It can be seen from the above description of the implementation manners that those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the present invention can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform. Based on this understanding, the essence of the technical solution of the present invention or the part that contributes to the prior art can be embodied in the form of software products, and the computer software products can be stored in storage media, such as ROM/RAM, disk , CD, etc., including several instructions to make a computer device (which may be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) execute the methods described in various embodiments or some parts of the embodiments of the present invention.

Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, the same and similar parts of each embodiment can be referred to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. In particular, for the device or system embodiments, since they are basically similar to the method embodiments, the description is relatively simple, and for relevant parts, refer to part of the description of the method embodiments. The device and system embodiments described above are only illustrative, and the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, It can be located in one place, or it can be distributed to multiple network elements. Part or all of the modules can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment. It can be understood and implemented by those skilled in the art without creative effort.

The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed in the present invention can easily think of changes or Replacement should be covered within the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be determined by the protection scope of the claims.

Claims (9)

1. A long-distance passenger transport small piece express freight cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system is characterized in that the system comprises: a model module, a view module and a controller module, and the controller module is connected to the model module and the described controller module respectively view module connection; The model module is used to store and process data, including: a traffic volume prediction sub-module, a cost accounting sub-module, and a freight rate formulation sub-module, which are respectively used for traffic volume forecasting, cost accounting, and freight rates of long-distance passenger transport of small and medium-sized goods. Formulate and carry out calculation processing; The view module is used to display data and perform user interaction, obtain user input information, and display required information to the user; The controller module is used to process business logic, judge which sub-module in the model module is used for processing according to the user input information received in the view module, and feed back the processed information to the view module. 2. according to claim 1, the long-distance passenger transport small piece express freight cost calculation freight rate formulates auxiliary decision-making system, it is characterized in that: The traffic volume prediction sub-module is used to make statistics on the waybill data accumulated in the business process, and obtain the historical annual cargo volume of the whole station and different routes as the original data; Select the impact indicators that will affect the transportation volume during the forecast period, and input the specific impact factor data in these impact indicators; Combined with the characteristics of the line, the corresponding prediction model is used to predict the traffic volume, the traffic volume forecast map is drawn, and the detailed values are displayed for the operator to evaluate the change trend of the predicted traffic volume. 3. The long-distance passenger transport small piece express freight cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system according to claim 2, is characterized in that, described forecasting model comprises at least one or more in the following models: time series forecasting, regression analysis forecasting or gray prediction; The time series prediction adopts the exponential smoothing method, and the exponential smoothing method uses the weighted average of the actual observed value in the current period and the exponential smoothing value in the previous period as the exponential smoothing value in the current period, and so on, using the time series to calculate the future forecast value for the period; Using quadratic exponential smoothing, a straight line equation is established to realize numerical prediction in the future period, and the calculation formula is: In the formula, α is the smoothing coefficient, is an exponential smoothing value, is the quadratic exponential smoothing value; The predictive model is: In the formula, b _t is the slope at time t. 4. according to claim 1, the long-distance passenger transport small piece express freight cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system is characterized in that: The cost accounting sub-module is used to enter and count variable cost items and variable cost data; to enter and count fixed cost items and fixed cost data; cost amount; Calculate the accounting cost in the future forecast period, the accounting cost includes: fixed cost and variable cost in the future forecast period, the fixed cost in the future forecast period is obtained through asset item accounting, and the variable cost in the future forecast period is obtained through the trend predicted. 5. The long-distance passenger transport small piece express freight cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system according to claim 4, is characterized in that, described depreciation calculation method comprises: straight-line depreciation method and accelerated depreciation method; The straight-line depreciation method is used to calculate the depreciation of the first category of fixed assets. The first category of fixed assets includes: auxiliary fixed assets and management tools, using the original value of the fixed asset minus the estimated net residual value, and then dividing by The calculation formula for the service life is as follows: In the formula, C(t) _1k is the fixed cost of item k of the first category in year t, D(t) _1k is the depreciation expense of item k of the first category in year t, and A _1k is the depreciation expense of item k in the first category. The original value of item k of fixed assets, B _1k is the estimated net residual value of item k of the first category of fixed assets, and T _1k is the useful life of item k of the first category of fixed assets; The accelerated depreciation method is used to calculate the depreciation of the second category of fixed assets. The second category of fixed assets is mechanical equipment fixed assets, and the calculation formula is as follows: C(t) _2k ＝D(t) _2k ＝(A _2k -B _2k )·d _t (5) In the formula, C(t) _2k is the fixed cost of item k of the second category in year t, and D(t) _2k is the depreciation fee for item k of the second category in year t. A _2k is the fixed cost of item k in the second category The original value of the asset, B _2k is the estimated net residual value of the k-th fixed asset in the second category, t is the service life of the equipment, d _t is the depreciation rate of the equipment in the t-th year, and T is the optimal depreciation period of the equipment . 6. The long-distance passenger transport small piece express freight cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making system according to claim 1 is characterized in that, the described freight rate formulation sub-module includes: a freight rate designation model based on traffic volume and cost and based on The freight rate specification model of the transportation demand curve; The freight rate designation model based on traffic volume and cost: in the early stage, entropy value method and evaluation index are used to divide routes and cost allocation, and based on the hot line and cold line, the average cost pricing method and the marginal cost pricing method are respectively used for calculation; The freight rate designation model based on the transportation demand curve: according to the characteristics of different routes, construct the curve function between the transportation demand and the freight rate, and calculate the freight rate and the expected profit value under the maximization of revenue. 7. The auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express freight cost accounting and freight rate formulation according to claim 1, wherein the model module further includes: an identity authentication sub-module for identity authentication of internal management personnel. 8. A method for using an auxiliary decision-making system for long-distance passenger transport, small-piece express freight cost accounting, and tariff formulation, which is applied to the system described in any one of claims 1-7, wherein the method comprises: The user accesses the view module on the Web server through the Internet, routers and firewalls, checks the information of small express shipments and submits the online waybill; The internal management personnel enter the auxiliary decision-making system, after identity authentication, enter the operation page, process the business logic through the controller module, call the corresponding function sub-module in the model module, perform business operations on the database server, and complete the small The on-site acceptance business of express shipments and the operation of processing online waybills. 9. The long-distance passenger transport small piece express freight cost accounting freight rate formulation auxiliary decision-making method according to claim 8, is characterized in that, described internal management personnel enters described auxiliary decision-making system, after identity authentication, enter operation page, pass The controller module processes the business logic, calls the corresponding functional sub-module in the model module, performs business operations on the database server, completes the on-site acceptance business of the small express shipment and the operation of processing the online waybill, including: Enter the operation page of traffic volume forecast, call the traffic volume forecast sub-module in the model module, query the traffic volume information of small express shipments according to the year, and add, delete and modify the traffic volume information of previous years. After the volume information is entered, select the forecasting method to obtain the year-volume line graph of the volume forecast result; Enter the cost accounting operation page, call the cost accounting sub-module in the model module, search according to the start and end years, select "year" or "quarter" or "month" as the minimum time span, and list the depreciation amount, Variable cost and total cost, according to the start and end depreciation time of fixed asset items and the change trend of variable cost items, calculate the cost value and line chart for the next two years; Enter the operation page of freight rate formulation, call the freight rate formulation sub-module in the model module, select the year, route and pricing method, and enter the real-time oil price and expected profit in advance when selecting the freight rate formulation model based on transportation volume and cost rate, and read other data from the volume prediction sub-module and the cost accounting sub-module to obtain the unit average cost pricing and unit marginal cost pricing of the line. When modeling, pre-fill three or more groups of traffic volume-price data tables to obtain the fitting curve, fitting equation and optimal unit freight price of demand pricing, and display unit average cost pricing and unit marginal cost pricing for comparison .