CN107808257A - A foreign trade risk assessment and early warning system and its realization method - Google Patents
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Abstract
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及计算机应用技术领域，特别是一种对外贸易风险评估预警系统及其实现方法。The invention relates to the field of computer application technology, in particular to a foreign trade risk assessment and early warning system and its realization method.
背景技术Background technique
国际贸易保护主义进一步升温，贸易摩擦形式日益多样，摩擦高发正在成为一种常态，给出口产业造成巨大制约效应。建立一种有效的公平贸易摩擦风险评估预警机制，提高决策的科学性，增强外贸发展的抗风险能力，对于外贸经济平稳发展意义重大。International trade protectionism has further intensified, trade frictions have become more and more diverse, and high frictions are becoming a norm, causing a huge restrictive effect on export industries. Establishing an effective fair trade friction risk assessment and early warning mechanism, improving the scientific nature of decision-making, and enhancing the anti-risk ability of foreign trade development are of great significance to the stable development of foreign trade economy.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明解决的技术问题之一在于提供一种对外贸易风险评估预警系统，自动及时获取公平贸易案件动态，分词解析成风险单元，计算商品频率系数和国别频率系数，将风险单元和企业出口数据进行匹配分析，计算风险单元强度分值、企业损害分值、国别预警分值和整体风险指数。One of the technical problems solved by the present invention is to provide a foreign trade risk assessment and early warning system, which can automatically and timely obtain the dynamics of fair trade cases, analyze word segmentation into risk units, calculate commodity frequency coefficients and country frequency coefficients, and combine risk units and enterprise export data Carry out matching analysis and calculate the risk unit intensity score, enterprise damage score, country early warning score and overall risk index.
本发明解决的技术问题之二在于提供一种对外贸易风险评估预警系统的实现方法。The second technical problem solved by the present invention is to provide a method for realizing a foreign trade risk assessment and early warning system.
本发明解决上述技术问题之一的技术方案是：The technical scheme that the present invention solves one of above-mentioned technical problem is:
所述的系统包括贸易风险鉴别、贸易风险评估和贸易风险监测预警模块；The system includes trade risk identification, trade risk assessment and trade risk monitoring and early warning modules;
所述的贸易风险鉴别模块，通过网络抓取获取权威机构发布的公平贸易案件动态，分词解析并按贸易救济调查商品和发起者计算商品频率系数和国别频率系数生成风险单元；The above-mentioned trade risk identification module obtains the dynamics of fair trade cases released by authoritative organizations through web crawling, analyzes word segmentation and calculates commodity frequency coefficients and country frequency coefficients to generate risk units according to trade remedy investigation commodities and initiators;
所述的贸易风险评估模块，将风险单元和企业出口数据进行匹配分析，计算风险单元强度分值、企业损害分值和国别预警分值，最终计算出风险指数；The trade risk assessment module mentioned above matches and analyzes the risk unit and enterprise export data, calculates the risk unit strength score, enterprise damage score and country early warning score, and finally calculates the risk index;
所述的风险监测预警模块，按贸易救济调查风险强度排行、企业损害程度排行、国别预警排行和风险指数趋势分别进行实时监测。The risk monitoring and early warning module mentioned above conducts real-time monitoring respectively according to the ranking of trade remedy investigation risk intensity, the ranking of enterprise damage degree, the ranking of early warning by country and the trend of risk index.
所述的风险单元包括唯一键、风险有效期、风险商品、发起者、商品频率系数和国别频率系数六种元素。The risk unit includes six elements: unique key, risk validity period, risk commodity, originator, commodity frequency coefficient and country frequency coefficient.
所述的贸易风险评估模块中，风险单元强度分值考虑因素包括受影响企业数占比、受影响商品年出口额占比和商品频率系数；In the above-mentioned trade risk assessment module, the factors considered for the risk unit intensity score include the proportion of the number of affected enterprises, the proportion of the annual export value of affected commodities, and the commodity frequency coefficient;
企业损害分值考虑因素包括企业商品年调查次数、企业受影响商品年出口额占比；Factors considered for the enterprise damage score include the number of annual surveys of the enterprise’s commodities, and the proportion of the enterprise’s annual export value of the affected commodities;
国别预警分值考虑因素包括国别年出口额占比和国别频率系数。Factors considered for the country-specific early warning score include the proportion of the country's annual export volume and the country-specific frequency coefficient.
本发明解决上述技术问题之二的技术方案是：The technical scheme that the present invention solves above-mentioned technical problem two is:
所述的方法具体步骤如下：The specific steps of the method are as follows:
第一步，通过网络抓取获取权威机构发布的公平贸易案件动态，分词解析并按贸易救济调查商品、发起者计算商品频率系数和国别频率系数生成风险单元；The first step is to obtain the dynamics of fair trade cases released by authoritative organizations through web crawling, analyze word segmentation and generate risk units according to trade remedy investigation commodities, initiator calculation commodity frequency coefficients, and country frequency coefficients;
第二步，将风险单元和企业出口数据进行匹配分析；The second step is to carry out matching analysis on the export data of risk units and enterprises;
第三步，制定三种类别风险指标，包括风险单元强度指标：受影响企业数占比、受影响商品年出口额占比和商品频率系数，企业损害指标：企业商品年调查次数、企业受影响商品年出口额占比，国别预警指标：国别年出口额占比和国别频率系数；The third step is to formulate three types of risk indicators, including risk unit intensity indicators: the proportion of the number of affected enterprises, the proportion of the annual export volume of affected commodities, and the commodity frequency coefficient; Proportion of annual commodity exports, country-specific early warning indicators: country-specific annual export ratio and country-specific frequency coefficients;
第四步，采用专家评估法制定各个风险指标在指数功效函数中的不允许值和刚容许值，其中，指数功效函数计算公式是：d为功效分值、x为指标的实际值、xs为不允许值、xh为刚容许值、e为数学常数约为2.71828、ln为对数符号；The fourth step is to use the expert evaluation method to formulate the permissible value and the permissible value of each risk indicator in the exponential power function, where the formula for calculating the power function is: d is the efficacy score, x is the actual value of the indicator, x s is the unallowable value, x h is the rigid allowable value, e is a mathematical constant about 2.71828, and ln is the logarithmic symbol;
第五步，采用指数功效函数分别计算各个风险指标分值，将风险指标数据标准化，计算后统一转换为0-100分的分值；The fifth step is to use the index efficacy function to calculate the scores of each risk indicator separately, standardize the risk indicator data, and convert it into a score of 0-100 after calculation;
第六步，汇总相同类别的风险指标，采用加权几何平均数计算风险单元强度分值、企业损害分值和国别预警分值，其中，加权几何平均数计算公式是：G为指标总分、N为指标数、X为各个风险指标分值、f为风险指标分值出现的次数；The sixth step is to summarize the risk indicators of the same category, and use the weighted geometric mean to calculate the risk unit strength score, enterprise damage score and country early warning score. The formula for calculating the weighted geometric mean is: G is the total score of the indicator, N is the number of indicators, X is the score of each risk indicator, and f is the number of occurrences of the score of the risk indicator;
第七步，根据风险单元强度分值、企业损害分值和国别预警分值，采用加权几何平均数计算风险指数，其中权重为相同风险分值出现的次数；The seventh step is to calculate the risk index using the weighted geometric mean according to the risk unit strength score, enterprise damage score and country early warning score, where the weight is the number of occurrences of the same risk score;
第八步，按贸易救济调查风险强度排行、企业损害程度排行、国别预警排行和风险指数趋势分别进行实时监测。The eighth step is to carry out real-time monitoring according to the ranking of trade remedy investigation risk intensity, enterprise damage degree, country early warning ranking and risk index trend.
本发明的有益效果是：The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
及时准确鉴别贸易风险，评估风险单元强度、企业损害程度，从贸易救济调查风险强度、企业损害程度、国别预警和风险指数趋势多种维度对公平贸易摩擦风险进行监测预警，提高决策的科学性，增强外贸发展的抗风险能力。Timely and accurate identification of trade risks, assessment of risk unit strength and enterprise damage degree, monitoring and early warning of fair trade friction risks from multiple dimensions of trade remedy investigation risk strength, enterprise damage degree, country early warning and risk index trend, and improve the scientific nature of decision-making , Enhance the anti-risk ability of foreign trade development.
附图说明Description of drawings
下面结合附图对本发明进一步说明：The present invention is further described below in conjunction with accompanying drawing:
图1是本发明的架构示意图。Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of the architecture of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
如图1所示，本发明的公平贸易摩擦风险评估预警系统由贸易风险鉴别、贸易风险评估和贸易风险监测预警组成。As shown in Figure 1, the fair trade friction risk assessment and early warning system of the present invention consists of trade risk identification, trade risk assessment and trade risk monitoring and early warning.
贸易风险鉴别通过网络抓取获取权威机构发布的公平贸易案件动态，分词解析成风险单元，按贸易救济调查商品和发起者计算商品频率系数和国别频率系数；Trade risk identification Obtain the dynamics of fair trade cases released by authoritative organizations through web crawling, analyze word segmentation into risk units, and calculate commodity frequency coefficients and country frequency coefficients according to trade remedy investigation commodities and initiators;
贸易风险评估将风险单元和企业出口数据进行匹配分析，计算风险单元强度分值、企业损害分值和国别预警分值，最终计算出风险指数；Trade risk assessment matches and analyzes the risk unit and enterprise export data, calculates the risk unit strength score, enterprise damage score and country early warning score, and finally calculates the risk index;
风险监测预警，按贸易救济调查风险强度排行、企业损害程度排行、国别预警排行和风险指数趋势分别进行实时监测。Risk monitoring and early warning, real-time monitoring is carried out according to the ranking of trade remedy investigation risk intensity, enterprise damage level, country early warning ranking and risk index trend.
风险单元按贸易救济调查商品和发起者计算商品频率系数和国别频率系数；风险单元包括唯一键、风险有效期、风险商品、发起者、商品频率系数和国别频率系数六种元素；贸易风险评估，根据受影响企业数占比、受影响商品年出口额占比和商品频率系数计算风险单元强度分值，根据企业年调查次数、企业受影响商品年出口额占比计算企业损害分值，根据国别年出口额占比和国别频率系数计算国别预警分值，根据风险单元强度分值、企业损害分值和国别预警分值计算风险指数。The risk unit calculates the commodity frequency coefficient and country frequency coefficient according to the commodity and originator of the trade remedy investigation; the risk unit includes six elements: unique key, risk validity period, risk commodity, originator, commodity frequency coefficient and country frequency coefficient; trade risk Assess, calculate the risk unit intensity score based on the proportion of the number of affected enterprises, the proportion of the annual export volume of affected commodities, and the commodity frequency coefficient, and calculate the enterprise damage score based on the annual survey times of the enterprise and the proportion of the annual export volume of the affected commodities of the enterprise, Calculate the country early warning score based on the country's annual export volume ratio and country frequency coefficient, and calculate the risk index based on the risk unit intensity score, enterprise damage score and country early warning score.
如图1所示，公平贸易摩擦风险评估预警系统的实现方法详细实施流程为：As shown in Figure 1, the detailed implementation process of the fair trade friction risk assessment and early warning system is as follows:
第一步，通过网络抓取获取权威机构发布的公平贸易案件动态，分词解析并按贸易救济调查商品、发起者计算商品频率系数和国别频率系数生成风险单元；The first step is to obtain the dynamics of fair trade cases released by authoritative organizations through web crawling, analyze word segmentation and generate risk units according to trade remedy investigation commodities, initiator calculation commodity frequency coefficients, and country frequency coefficients;
第二步，将风险单元和企业出口数据进行匹配分析；The second step is to carry out matching analysis on the export data of risk units and enterprises;
第三步，制定三种类别风险指标，包括风险单元强度指标：受影响企业数占比、受影响商品年出口额占比和商品频率系数，企业损害指标：企业商品年调查次数、企业受影响商品年出口额占比，国别预警指标：国别年出口额占比和国别频率系数；The third step is to formulate three types of risk indicators, including risk unit intensity indicators: the proportion of the number of affected enterprises, the proportion of the annual export volume of affected commodities, and the commodity frequency coefficient; Proportion of annual commodity exports, country-specific early warning indicators: country-specific annual export ratio and country-specific frequency coefficients;
第四步，采用专家评估法制定各个风险指标在指数功效函数中的不允许值和刚容许值，其中，指数功效函数计算公式是：d为功效分值、x为指标的实际值、xs为不允许值、xh为刚容许值、e为数学常数约为2.71828、ln为对数符号；The fourth step is to use the expert evaluation method to formulate the permissible value and the permissible value of each risk indicator in the exponential power function, where the formula for calculating the power function is: d is the efficacy score, x is the actual value of the indicator, x s is the unallowable value, x h is the rigid allowable value, e is a mathematical constant about 2.71828, and ln is the logarithmic symbol;
第五步，采用指数功效函数分别计算各个风险指标分值，将风险指标数据标准化，计算后统一转换为0-100分的分值；The fifth step is to use the index efficacy function to calculate the scores of each risk indicator separately, standardize the risk indicator data, and convert it into a score of 0-100 after calculation;
第六步，汇总相同类别的风险指标，采用加权几何平均数计算风险单元强度分值、企业损害分值和国别预警分值，其中，加权几何平均数计算公式是：G为指标总分、N为指标数、X为各个风险指标分值、f为风险指标分值出现的次数；The sixth step is to summarize the risk indicators of the same category, and use the weighted geometric mean to calculate the risk unit strength score, enterprise damage score and country early warning score. The formula for calculating the weighted geometric mean is: G is the total score of the indicator, N is the number of indicators, X is the score of each risk indicator, and f is the number of occurrences of the score of the risk indicator;
第七步，根据风险单元强度分值、企业损害分值和国别预警分值，采用加权几何平均数计算风险指数，其中权重为相同风险分值出现的次数；The seventh step is to calculate the risk index using the weighted geometric mean according to the risk unit strength score, enterprise damage score and country early warning score, where the weight is the number of occurrences of the same risk score;
第八步，按贸易救济调查风险强度排行、企业损害程度排行、国别预警排行和风险指数趋势分别进行实时监测。The eighth step is to carry out real-time monitoring according to the ranking of trade remedy investigation risk intensity, enterprise damage degree, country early warning ranking and risk index trend.
Claims (4)
- A kind of 1. foreign trade risk assessment early warning system, it is characterised in that：Described system includes trade hazard discriminating, trade Risk assessment and trade hazard monitoring and warning module；Described trade hazard identification module, captured by network and obtain the fair trade case dynamic that authoritative institution issues, point Word parses and investigates commodity and promoter's calculating commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency generation risk unit by Trade Remedy；Described trade hazard evaluation module, risk unit and export enterprise data are subjected to the matching analysis, calculation risk unit Intensity score value, enterprise's infringement score value and country origin early warning score value, finally calculate risk index；Described Risk Monitoring warning module, it is pre- by Trade Remedy investigation venture entrepreneur seniority among brothers and sisters, enterprise's extent of damage seniority among brothers and sisters, country origin Alert seniority among brothers and sisters and risk index trend are monitored in real time respectively.
- 2. system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Described risk unit include unique key, the risk term of validity, Six kinds of risk commodity, promoter, commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency elements.
- 3. system according to claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that：In described trade hazard evaluation module, risk unit Intensity score value Consideration includes impacted enterprise's number accounting, impacted commodity year export amount accounting and commodity coefficient of frequency；Enterprise's infringement score value Consideration includes enterprise's commodity year investigation number, the impacted commodity year export amount accounting of enterprise；Country origin early warning score value Consideration includes country origin year export amount accounting and country origin coefficient of frequency.
- 4. a kind of implementation method of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, it is special Sign is：Described method comprises the following steps that：The first step, is captured by network and obtains the fair trade case dynamic that authoritative institution issues, and participle is parsed and rescued by trade Ji investigation commodity, promoter calculate commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency generation risk unit；Second step, risk unit and export enterprise data are subjected to the matching analysis；3rd step, formulate three kinds of classification risk indicators, including risk unit intensity index：It is impacted enterprise's number accounting, impacted Commodity year export amount accounting and commodity coefficient of frequency, enterprise's infringement index：Enterprise's commodity year investigation number, the impacted commodity of enterprise Year export amount accounting, country origin warning index：Country origin year export amount accounting and country origin coefficient of frequency；4th step, formulate not permissible value of each risk indicator in exponential desirability functions using expert's Evaluation Method and just allowed Value, wherein, exponential desirability functions calculation formula is：D is effect score value, x is index Actual value, xsFor not permissible value, xhFor firm feasible value, e be math constant be about 2.71828, ln be log；5th step, calculate each risk indicator score value respectively using exponential desirability functions, risk indicator data normalization calculates 0-100 points of score value is uniformly converted to afterwards；6th step, collect the risk indicator of identical category, damaged using weighted geometrie average calculation risk unit intensity score value, enterprise Score value and country origin early warning score value, wherein, weighted geometrie average calculation formula is： The number that G is index total score, N is index number, X is each risk indicator score value, f is the appearance of risk indicator score value；7th step, score value and country origin early warning score value are damaged according to risk unit intensity score value, enterprise, using weighted geometrie average Calculation risk index, wherein weight are the number that same risk score value occurs；8th step, by Trade Remedy investigation venture entrepreneur seniority among brothers and sisters, enterprise's extent of damage seniority among brothers and sisters, country origin early warning seniority among brothers and sisters and risk index Trend is monitored in real time respectively.
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| CN111667146A (en) * | 2020-04-29 | 2020-09-15 | 桂林电子科技大学 | External trade risk assessment platform |
| CN113626727A (en) * | 2020-05-09 | 2021-11-09 | 北京量子时代智能设备有限公司 | Effective integral algorithm in field of big data investigation |
| CN112381587A (en) * | 2020-12-01 | 2021-02-19 | 大连交通大学 | Foreign trade industry ecological gathering area integrated system and business operation mode |
| CN112633660A (en) * | 2020-12-17 | 2021-04-09 | 山大地纬软件股份有限公司 | Multi-angle unemployment risk early warning device and method |
| CN114723344A (en) * | 2022-06-07 | 2022-07-08 | 浙江省标准化研究院(金砖国家标准化(浙江)研究中心 浙江省物品编码中心) | Foreign technical trade barrier early warning method and system for export products |
| CN116777621A (en) * | 2023-06-25 | 2023-09-19 | 陕西西煤云商信息科技有限公司 | A trade business risk prevention and control method and its prevention and control system |
| CN116777621B (en) * | 2023-06-25 | 2024-02-06 | 陕西西煤云商信息科技有限公司 | Trade business risk prevention and control method and prevention and control system thereof |
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