CN107403226B - Method for determining preventive maintenance interval and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability - Google Patents
Method for determining preventive maintenance interval and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN107403226B CN107403226B CN201710579008.1A CN201710579008A CN107403226B CN 107403226 B CN107403226 B CN 107403226B CN 201710579008 A CN201710579008 A CN 201710579008A CN 107403226 B CN107403226 B CN 107403226B
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- equipment
- maintenance
- time
- residual
- life
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Active
Links
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 245
- 230000003449 preventive effect Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 89
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 65
- 230000009466 transformation Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 37
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 11
- 238000005315 distribution function Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 claims description 8
- 230000008439 repair process Effects 0.000 claims description 8
- 230000007935 neutral effect Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 201000004569 Blindness Diseases 0.000 abstract description 4
- 230000002035 prolonged effect Effects 0.000 abstract description 4
- 238000005457 optimization Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 230000000737 periodic effect Effects 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 description 3
- 230000007547 defect Effects 0.000 description 3
- 238000013480 data collection Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000006872 improvement Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000002699 waste material Substances 0.000 description 1
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/20—Administration of product repair or maintenance
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Public Health (AREA)
- Water Supply & Treatment (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Testing And Monitoring For Control Systems (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
- Other Investigation Or Analysis Of Materials By Electrical Means (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses a method for determining preventive maintenance interval and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability, which comprises the steps of calculating the total life of the equipment according to the cost of related maintenance activities of the equipment in historical data by combining the calculated service time of the equipment and the calculated residual life after the last preventive maintenance, calculating the maintenance cost including equipment purchase cost in unit time when different maintenance times are calculated, and finally selecting the maintenance time with the lowest maintenance cost in unit time; by using the method, the maintenance interval and times can be accurately obtained, so that the blindness in maintenance activities is reduced, the reliability of equipment is ensured, the fault rate of traction power supply and transformation equipment is reduced, the service life of the equipment is prolonged under the condition of lowest maintenance cost in unit time, and the utilization rate of the equipment is improved; and finally, the optimization and adjustment of the periodic maintenance of the traction power supply and transformation equipment are realized.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of maintenance of traction power supply and transformation equipment, in particular to a method for determining preventive maintenance intervals and times of equipment in a traction substation.
Background
Along with the development of social economy, the requirements of people on travel are gradually improved, the rapid, safe and reliable railway travel especially serving as domestic remote travel becomes one of the main selection modes of people, and the nation also can vigorously develop railway construction, especially high-speed rail construction, into an important policy of national economic development and civil service. With the gradual improvement of railway networks in the whole country, the railway of China gradually shifts from a construction period to an operation maintenance period, so that the maintenance of railway traction power supply and transformation equipment becomes one of the urgent subjects faced by the current railway operation units, and the realization of lower maintenance cost of the railway power supply and transformation equipment on the premise of ensuring certain reliability is one of the main research directions.
The generation of the method for determining the maintenance interval and the maintenance times of the traction power supply and transformation equipment is realized by integrating historical maintenance data of equipment operation and cost information of related maintenance activities and aiming at the lowest maintenance cost in unit time on the premise of considering certain reliability. The method for determining the preventive maintenance interval and the preventive maintenance frequency of the traction power supply and transformation equipment is used for explaining how to determine the preventive maintenance cycle interval and the preventive maintenance frequency of the traction power supply and transformation equipment. The method for determining the preventive maintenance interval and times of the traction power supply and transformation equipment aims to ensure that the equipment works under the premise of certain reliability, flexibly and reasonably adjust the preventive maintenance period and select the preventive maintenance times to ensure that the maintenance cost in unit time is the lowest.
At present, most railway operation units adopt a regular maintenance mode for traction power supply and transformation equipment in a traction substation, and a small part of the traction power supply and transformation equipment adopts a state maintenance mode. The maintenance period of the regular maintenance mode is fixed, over-maintenance or insufficient maintenance of the equipment can be caused, the probability of equipment failure is increased due to insufficient maintenance, the failure can be induced due to excessive maintenance when the equipment is healthy, and certain economic waste can be caused due to over-maintenance; the state maintenance mode also has the difficulties of insufficient monitoring of the current state of the equipment and great operation difficulty; the prior art has not addressed such problems.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the defects of the prior art, the invention aims to provide a method for determining preventive maintenance intervals and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability, and the maintenance intervals and times can be accurately obtained by using the method, so that the blindness in maintenance activities is reduced, the reliability of the equipment is ensured, the fault rate of the traction power supply and transformation equipment is reduced, the service life of the equipment is prolonged under the condition of lowest maintenance cost in unit time, and the utilization rate of the equipment is improved; and finally, the optimization and adjustment of the periodic maintenance of the traction power supply and transformation equipment are realized.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:
a method for determining preventive maintenance intervals and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability comprises the following steps: step one, determining a device reliability function; counting historical fault information of the equipment, obtaining a nonparametric estimation value of a failure probability distribution function by a Bernoulli neutral rank estimation method, and obtaining a shape parameter beta and a scale parameter eta by a least square method to obtain an equipment reliability function; step two, determining a preventive maintenance interval of the equipment; obtaining a reliability function of the residual service life of the equipment in the step one, and solving the maintenance time interval of the equipment by using the reliability function of the residual service life according to a set threshold value of the reliability of the residual service life; step three, determining the remaining life of the equipment: the service time of the equipment in the Nth maintenance can be known according to the maintenance time interval of the equipment obtained in the second step, and the residual life of the equipment after the Nth preventive maintenance is calculated by using a residual life function based on the service time; step four, determining the optimal preventive maintenance times of the equipment; and calculating the total service life of the equipment according to the cost of the equipment for performing related maintenance activities in the historical data and by combining the service time of the equipment during the Nth maintenance and the residual service life of the equipment after the Nth maintenance, calculating the maintenance cost including equipment purchase cost in unit time when different maintenance times are calculated, and selecting the maintenance time with the minimum maintenance cost in unit time.
In the foregoing method for determining the interval and the number of times of preventive maintenance of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on the remaining life reliability, the historical fault information includes: initial time T for traction power supply and transformation equipment to be put into operation0(ii) a Time of failure T of a deviceiThe index i indicates the number of failures of the device; device cut-off timeTend(ii) a Including the amount of device fault data samples n that were taken out of service for non-fault reasons.
The method for determining the preventive maintenance interval and times of the traction power supply and transformation equipment based on the residual life reliability comprises the following steps of firstly, determining an equipment reliability function; counting historical fault information of the equipment, obtaining a nonparametric estimation value of a failure probability distribution function by a Bernoulli neutral rank estimation method, and obtaining a shape parameter beta and a scale parameter eta by a least square method to obtain an equipment reliability function; the method comprises the following specific steps:
a, recording the initial time T of the traction power supply and transformation equipment for operation0Time of failure T of the deviceiWhere the index i indicates the number of faults of the device, the device cut-off time TendAnd a sample number n of device fault data including non-fault cause exit operations;
b, calculating the fault time of the equipment according to the above moments;
t1＝T1-T0
t2＝T2-T0
……
ti＝Ti-T0；
and (3) solving a nonparametric estimation value of the distribution function F (t) by adopting a Bonnet median rank estimation method:
……
obtaining sample data
Based on the sample data, the utilization ratio is optimizedThe multiplication of the two-small calculates the shape parameter β and the scale parameter η, let xi＝lnti，
Separately calculate xi，yiAverage value of (d):
the shape parameter beta and the scale parameter eta estimated value when x is taken as an independent variable are as follows:
the sum of the horizontal residuals squared is:
wherein,
m is the total failure times;
the estimated values of the shape parameter beta and the scale parameter eta when y is taken as an independent variable are as follows:
the sum of the squares of the vertical residuals is:
wherein
M is the total failure times;
comparing horizontal residual sum of squares RxySum vertical residual sum of squares RyxThe size, wherein the smaller corresponding parameter values are the shape parameter β and the scale parameter η of the Weibull distribution of the device;
and c, obtaining a reliability function of the equipment according to the parameters as follows:
the failure rate function is:
according to the method for determining the preventive maintenance interval and times of the traction power supply and transformation equipment based on the residual life reliability, the preventive maintenance interval of the equipment is determined; obtaining a reliability function of the residual service life of the equipment in the step one, and solving the maintenance time interval of the equipment by using the reliability function of the residual service life according to a set threshold value of the reliability of the residual service life; the method comprises the following specific steps:
a, obtaining a residual life reliability function according to the parameters obtained in the step one as follows:
b, determining the maintenance time interval of each time according to the residual life reliability function and the specified residual life reliability value alpha, and specifically solving the following steps:
……
solving the above formulas to obtain T1，T2，……，TNWherein N represents a number of times;
c, the obtained T1、T2、……、TNTime intervals for preventive maintenance of a past, i.e. elapsed time T1The equipment is first preventively maintained for a second time T2The equipment is subjected to a second preventive maintenance, … …, after a time TNThe equipment is subjected to the nth preventive maintenance.
The method for determining the preventive maintenance interval and times of the traction power supply and transformation equipment based on the residual life reliability comprises the following steps: the service time of the equipment in the Nth maintenance can be known according to the maintenance time interval of the equipment obtained in the second step, and the residual life of the equipment after the Nth preventive maintenance is calculated by using a residual life function based on the service time; the specific process is as follows:
a, obtaining a residual life function according to the parameters obtained in the step one as follows:
b, substituting the service time of the equipment calculated by the previous maintenance time interval in the step two into the formula to obtain the residual service life of the equipment subjected to previous preventive maintenance, wherein the specific process is as follows:
……
c, the calculated result of the formula shows that the residual service life of the equipment after the first maintenance is mu (T)1) The remaining life of the device after the second repair is μ (T)2) … …, the remaining life of the equipment after the Nth service is
According to the method for determining the preventive maintenance interval and times of the traction power supply and transformation equipment based on the residual life reliability, the optimal preventive maintenance times of the equipment is determined; calculating the total service life of the equipment according to the cost of the equipment for performing related maintenance activities in the historical data and by combining the service time of the equipment during the Nth maintenance and the residual service life of the equipment after the Nth maintenance, calculating the maintenance cost including equipment purchase cost in unit time when different maintenance times are calculated, and selecting the maintenance time with the minimum maintenance cost in unit time; the method comprises the following specific steps:
a, obtaining the purchase cost of the equipment as C according to the historical datarThe cost for one-time repair of the equipment is CfAnd the cost of performing one-time preventive maintenance on the equipment is Cp；
b, calculating the maintenance cost in unit time according to the maintenance cost and the total life of the equipment obtained by combining the preventive maintenance time interval obtained in the step two and the residual life obtained in the step three after the previous maintenance, wherein the specific formula is as follows:
……
c, the maintenance cost of the equipment in unit time after 1 preventive maintenance is obtained by the formula1Maintenance costs of the equipment per unit time over 2 preventive maintenance sessions are c2… …, maintenance cost per unit time for the equipment to undergo N preventive maintenance events is cNAnd selecting the maintenance frequency with the minimum maintenance cost in the maintenance unit time as the preventive maintenance frequency of the equipment.
The invention has the advantages that: the invention provides a method for determining preventive maintenance intervals and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability; by the method, the maintenance interval and times can be accurately obtained, so that the blindness in maintenance activities is reduced, the reliability of equipment is ensured, the fault rate of traction power supply and transformation equipment is reduced, the service life of the equipment is prolonged under the condition of lowest maintenance cost in unit time, and the utilization rate of the equipment is improved. The data collection of the technology is convenient, and the reliability function of the equipment is determined based on the fault data of the similar equipment; determining the equipment maintenance time interval and the residual life by using the residual life reliability; selecting the maintenance times based on the actual maintenance and purchase cost of the equipment and the calculated service life of the equipment; the method not only ensures that the equipment runs under certain reliability and prolongs the service life of the equipment, but also determines preventive maintenance times with the lowest maintenance cost in unit time, and is more suitable for actual working conditions by comprehensively considering the reliability and the economy. The method for determining the preventive maintenance interval and times of the traction power supply and transformation equipment based on the residual life reliability has strict mathematical significance, wherein the residual life reliability significance accords with the definition of condition probability in probability theory, and the maintenance time interval obtained by using the residual life reliability has stronger reliability and persuasion; the method takes the residual life into the full life of the equipment for the first time, overcomes the defect that the service time before the last preventive maintenance of the equipment is taken as the full life of the equipment and the running time after the equipment is not taken into consideration, predicts the full life of the equipment more accurately, and calculates the maintenance cost in unit time to be more in line with the actual situation.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in detail with reference to the following embodiments.
A method for determining preventive maintenance intervals and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of firstly, determining an equipment reliability function, counting historical fault information of the equipment, obtaining a nonparametric estimation value of a failure probability distribution function through a Bernoulli neutral-order estimation method, obtaining a shape parameter β and a scale parameter η through a least square method to obtain the equipment reliability function, wherein the historical fault information comprises an initial time T for pulling power supply and transformation equipment to be put into operation0(ii) a Time of failure T of a deviceiThe index i indicates the number of failures of the device; device cut-off time Tend(ii) a Including the amount of device fault data samples n that were taken out of service for non-fault reasons.
The method comprises the following specific steps:
a, recording the initial time T of the traction power supply and transformation equipment for operation0Time of failure T of the deviceiWhere the index i indicates the number of faults of the device, the device cut-off time TendAnd a sample number n of device fault data including non-fault cause exit operations;
b, calculating the fault time of the equipment according to the above moments;
t1＝T1-T0
t2＝T2-T0
……
ti＝Ti-T0；
and (3) solving a nonparametric estimation value of the distribution function F (t) by adopting a Bonnet median rank estimation method:
……
obtaining sample data
Calculating shape parameter β and scale parameter η by least square method according to the sample data, let xi＝lnti，
Separately calculate xi，yiAverage value of (d):
the shape parameter beta and the scale parameter eta estimated value when x is taken as an independent variable are as follows:
the sum of the horizontal residuals squared is:
wherein,
m is the total failure times;
the estimated values of the shape parameter beta and the scale parameter eta when y is taken as an independent variable are as follows:
the sum of the squares of the vertical residuals is:
wherein
M is the total failure times;
comparing horizontal residual sum of squares RxySum vertical residual sum of squares RyxThe size, wherein the smaller corresponding parameter values are the shape parameter β and the scale parameter η of the Weibull distribution of the device;
and c, obtaining a reliability function of the equipment according to the parameters as follows:
the failure rate function is:
step two, determining a preventive maintenance interval of the equipment; obtaining a reliability function of the residual service life of the equipment in the step one, and solving the maintenance time interval of the equipment by using the reliability function of the residual service life according to a set threshold value of the reliability of the residual service life;
the method comprises the following specific steps:
a, obtaining a residual life reliability function according to the parameters obtained in the step one as follows:
b, determining the maintenance time interval of each time according to the residual life reliability function and the specified residual life reliability value alpha, and specifically solving the following steps:
……
solving the above formulas to obtain T1，T2，……，TNWherein N represents a number of times;
c, the obtained T1、T2、……、TNTime intervals for preventive maintenance of a past, i.e. elapsed time T1The equipment is first preventively maintained for a second time T2The equipment is subjected to a second preventive maintenance, … …, after a time TNThe equipment is subjected to the nth preventive maintenance.
Step three, determining the remaining life of the equipment: the service time of the equipment in the Nth maintenance can be known according to the maintenance time interval of the equipment obtained in the second step, and the residual life of the equipment after the Nth preventive maintenance is calculated by using a residual life function based on the service time;
the specific process is as follows:
a, obtaining a residual life function according to the parameters obtained in the step one as follows:
b, substituting the service time of the equipment calculated by the previous maintenance time interval in the step two into the formula to obtain the residual service life of the equipment subjected to previous preventive maintenance, wherein the specific process is as follows:
……
c, the calculated result of the formula shows that the residual service life of the equipment after the first maintenance is mu (T)1) The remaining life of the device after the second repair is μ (T)2) … …, the remaining life of the equipment after the Nth service is
Step four, determining the optimal preventive maintenance times of the equipment; calculating the total service life of the equipment according to the cost of the equipment for performing related maintenance activities in the historical data and by combining the service time of the equipment during the Nth maintenance and the residual service life of the equipment after the Nth maintenance, calculating the maintenance cost including equipment purchase cost in unit time when different maintenance times are calculated, and selecting the maintenance time with the minimum maintenance cost in unit time;
the method comprises the following specific steps:
a, obtaining the purchase cost of the equipment as C according to the historical datarThe cost for one-time repair of the equipment is CfAnd the cost of performing one-time preventive maintenance on the equipment is Cp；
b, calculating the maintenance cost in unit time according to the maintenance cost and the total life of the equipment obtained by combining the preventive maintenance time interval obtained in the step two and the residual life obtained in the step three after the previous maintenance, wherein the specific formula is as follows:
……
c, the maintenance cost of the equipment in unit time after 1 preventive maintenance is obtained by the formula1Maintenance costs of the equipment per unit time over 2 preventive maintenance sessions are c2… …, maintenance cost per unit time for the equipment to undergo N preventive maintenance events is cNAnd selecting the maintenance frequency with the minimum maintenance cost in the maintenance unit time as the preventive maintenance frequency of the equipment.
To further illustrate the present invention, a vacuum circuit breaker will be described below as an example;
the method comprises the following steps: determining reliability function parameters of a device
a, the number of times of the operation failure of the breaker is taken as a statistical time initial time T0 being 0, a fault time T1 being 10010, T2 being 18015, T3 being 26000, T4 being 36483, T5 being 42000, and a cutoff time Tend being 50000.
Failure time of the device:
t1＝T1-T0＝10010-0＝10010
t2＝T2-T0＝18015-0＝18015
t3＝T3-T0＝26000-0＝26000
t4＝T4-T0＝36483-0＝36483
t5＝T5-T0＝42000-0＝42000
and (3) solving a nonparametric estimation value of the distribution function F (t) by adopting a Bonnet median rank estimation method:
obtaining sample data { x1, y1} - {9.2113, -2.1556}, { x2, y2} - {9.7990, -1.1753}, { x3, y3} - {10.1659, -0.6015}, { x4, y4} - {10.5046, -0.1473}, { x4, y4} - {10.6454,0.2819}, calculating the average value of xi, yi:
the shape parameter beta and the scale parameter eta estimated value when x is taken as an independent variable are as follows:
the sum of the horizontal residuals squared is:
wherein,
the estimated values of the shape parameter beta and the scale parameter eta when y is taken as an independent variable are as follows:
the sum of the squares of the vertical residuals is:
wherein
Comparing the sizes of the horizontal residual sum of squares Rxy and the vertical residual sum of squares Ryx, and taking the smaller corresponding parameter values as the shape parameter beta (1.6453) and the scale parameter eta (37403.3894) of the Weibull distribution of the equipment;
and c, obtaining a reliability function of the equipment according to the parameters as follows:
the failure rate function is:
step two, determining a preventive maintenance interval of the equipment; obtaining a reliability function of the residual service life of the equipment in the step one, and solving the maintenance time interval of the equipment by using the reliability function of the residual service life according to a set threshold value of the reliability of the residual service life;
the method comprises the following specific steps:
a, obtaining a residual life reliability function according to the parameters obtained in the step one as follows:
b, determining the maintenance time interval of each time according to the residual life reliability function and the specified residual life reliability value alpha which is 0.9, and specifically solving the following steps:
……
solving the above formulas to obtain T1256 days, T2134 days, … …, T20Day 49;
c, the obtained T1, T2, … … and T20 are time intervals of previous preventive maintenance, namely, the first preventive maintenance is carried out by a device after the time T1, the second preventive maintenance is carried out by a device after the time T2, … …, and the 20 th preventive maintenance is carried out by a device after the time T20.
Step three, determining the remaining life of the equipment: the service time of the equipment in the Nth maintenance can be known according to the maintenance time interval of the equipment obtained in the second step, and the residual life of the equipment after the Nth preventive maintenance is calculated by using a residual life function based on the service time;
the specific process is as follows:
a, obtaining a residual life function according to the parameters obtained in the step one as follows:
b, substituting the service time of the equipment calculated by the previous maintenance time interval in the step two into the formula to obtain the residual service life of the equipment subjected to previous preventive maintenance, wherein the specific process is as follows:
……
c, the calculated result of the formula shows that the residual service life of the equipment after the first maintenance is mu (T)1) The remaining life of the equipment after the second repair is μ (T) 1394 days2) 1203 days, … …, the remaining life of the equipment after the 20 th service was
Step four, determining the optimal preventive maintenance times of the equipment; calculating the total service life of the equipment according to the cost of the equipment for performing related maintenance activities in the historical data and by combining the service time of the equipment during the Nth maintenance and the residual service life of the equipment after the Nth maintenance, calculating the maintenance cost including equipment purchase cost in unit time when different maintenance times are calculated, and selecting the maintenance time with the minimum maintenance cost in unit time;
the method comprises the following specific steps:
a, obtaining the purchase cost of the equipment as C according to the historical datarThe cost of one-time repair of the equipment is C100000fCost of preventive maintenance of 2000 sum equipment is Cp＝3000；
b, calculating the maintenance cost in unit time according to the maintenance cost and the total life of the equipment obtained by combining the preventive maintenance time interval obtained in the step two and the residual life obtained in the step three after the previous maintenance, wherein the specific formula is as follows:
……
c, the maintenance cost of the equipment in unit time after 1 preventive maintenance is obtained by the formula1Maintenance cost per unit time for a device undergoing 2 preventive maintenance operations c/day 70.62 Yuan/day269.80 yuan/day, …, maintenance cost per unit time for the device to undergo 10 preventive maintenance events is c1067.76 yuan/day, …, maintenance cost per unit time for 20 preventive maintenance sessions of the equipment is c2068.49, the maintenance frequency 10 with the minimum maintenance cost in the maintenance unit time is selected as the preventive maintenance frequency of the equipment.
The principle of the maintenance interval and times which can be accurately obtained by the invention is as follows:
the method comprises the steps that statistical historical fault information of similar equipment is utilized, a least square method is utilized to calculate a shape parameter beta and a scale parameter eta of Weibull distribution in equipment reliability parameters, and an obtained equipment reliability function is accurate;
b, according to the reliability parameters obtained by the method, determining that the preventive maintenance interval not only accords with the relevant reliability theory but also accords with the mathematical knowledge theories such as conditional probability by using the reliability function of the residual service life of the equipment and the set threshold value, wherein the obtained preventive maintenance interval is reasonable in the reliability theory and the relevant mathematical theory;
and c, calculating the maintenance cost of the equipment in unit time in the whole life cycle according to the counted field maintenance cost and the calculated whole life of the equipment, taking the maintenance frequency corresponding to the minimum maintenance cost in unit time as the optimal preventive maintenance frequency, and theoretically, calculating that the maintenance cost in unit time corresponding to the maintenance frequency is the lowest.
The invention provides a method for determining preventive maintenance intervals and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability; by the method, the maintenance interval and times can be accurately obtained, so that the blindness in maintenance activities is reduced, the reliability of equipment is ensured, the fault rate of traction power supply and transformation equipment is reduced, the service life of the equipment is prolonged under the condition of lowest maintenance cost in unit time, and the utilization rate of the equipment is improved. The data collection of the technology is convenient, and the reliability function of the equipment is determined based on the fault data of the similar equipment; determining the equipment maintenance time interval and the residual life by using the residual life reliability; selecting the maintenance times based on the actual maintenance and purchase cost of the equipment and the calculated service life of the equipment; the method not only ensures that the equipment runs under certain reliability and prolongs the service life of the equipment, but also determines preventive maintenance times with the lowest maintenance cost in unit time, and is more suitable for actual working conditions by comprehensively considering the reliability and the economy. The method for determining the preventive maintenance interval and times of the traction power supply and transformation equipment based on the residual life reliability has strict mathematical significance, wherein the residual life reliability significance accords with the definition of condition probability in probability theory, and the maintenance time interval obtained by using the residual life reliability has stronger reliability and persuasion; the method takes the residual life into the full life of the equipment for the first time, overcomes the defect that the service time before the last preventive maintenance of the equipment is taken as the full life of the equipment and the running time after the equipment is not taken into consideration, predicts the full life of the equipment more accurately, and calculates the maintenance cost in unit time to be more in line with the actual situation.
The foregoing illustrates and describes the principles, general features, and advantages of the present invention. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that the above embodiments do not limit the present invention in any way, and all technical solutions obtained by using equivalent alternatives or equivalent variations fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1.A method for determining preventive maintenance intervals and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability is characterized by comprising the following steps: counting historical fault information of equipment, obtaining a nonparametric estimation value of a failure probability distribution function by a Bernoulli neutral order estimation method, and obtaining a shape parameter beta and a scale parameter eta by a least square method to obtain an equipment reliability function; determining a preventive maintenance interval of the equipment, namely determining a residual life reliability function of the equipment according to the parameters obtained in the step one, and solving a maintenance time interval of the equipment by using the residual life reliability function according to a set residual life reliability threshold; step three, determining the remaining life of the equipment: the service time of the equipment in the Nth maintenance can be known according to the maintenance time interval of the equipment obtained in the second step, and the residual life of the equipment after the Nth preventive maintenance is calculated by using a residual life function based on the service time; step four, determining the optimal preventive maintenance times of the equipment; calculating the total service life of the equipment according to the cost of the equipment for performing related maintenance activities in the historical data and by combining the service time of the equipment during the Nth maintenance and the residual service life of the equipment after the Nth maintenance, calculating the maintenance cost including equipment purchase cost in unit time when different maintenance times are calculated, and selecting the maintenance time with the minimum maintenance cost in unit time;
the historical fault information includes: initial time T for traction power supply and transformation equipment to be put into operation0(ii) a Time of failure T of a deviceiThe index i indicates the number of failures of the device; device cut-off time Tend(ii) a The method comprises the steps of (1) including the equipment fault data sample amount n of which the non-fault reason exits the operation;
the method comprises the following specific steps:
a, recording the initial time T of the traction power supply and transformation equipment to be put into operation0Time of failure T of the deviceiWhere the index i indicates the number of faults of the device, the device cut-off time TendAnd a sample number n of device fault data including non-fault cause exit operations;
1, b, calculating the fault time of the equipment according to the above time;
t1＝T1-T0
t2＝T2-T0
……
ti＝Ti-T0；
and (3) solving a nonparametric estimation value of the distribution function F (t) by adopting a Bonnet median rank estimation method:
obtaining sample data
Calculating shape parameter β and scale parameter η by least square method according to the sample data, let xi＝lnti，
Separately calculate xi，yiAverage value of (d):
the shape parameter beta and the scale parameter eta estimated value when x is taken as an independent variable are as follows:
the sum of the horizontal residuals squared is:
wherein,
m is the total failure times;
the estimated values of the shape parameter beta and the scale parameter eta when y is taken as an independent variable are as follows:
the sum of the squares of the vertical residuals is:
wherein
M is the total failure times;
comparing horizontal residual sum of squares RxySum vertical residual sum of squares RyxThe size, wherein the smaller corresponding parameter values are the shape parameter β and the scale parameter η of the Weibull distribution of the device;
the reliability function of the device obtained by the above parameters is:
the failure rate function is:
step two, the concrete steps include:
a, obtaining a residual life reliability function according to the parameters obtained in the step one as follows:
and 2, b, determining the maintenance time interval of each time according to the residual life reliability function and the specified residual life reliability threshold value alpha, and specifically solving the following steps:
solving the above formulas to obtain T1，T2，……，TNWherein N represents a number of times;
2, c, T obtained1、T2、……、TNTime intervals for preventive maintenance of a past, i.e. elapsed time T1The equipment is first preventively maintained for a second time T2The equipment is subjected to a second preventive maintenance, … …, after a time TNPerforming the N-time preventive maintenance on the equipment;
step three, the concrete process is as follows:
a, obtaining a residual life function according to the parameters obtained in the step one as follows:
and 3, b, substituting the service time of the equipment calculated by the previous maintenance time interval in the step two into the formula to obtain the residual service life of the equipment subjected to previous preventive maintenance, wherein the specific process is as follows:
and 3, c, the calculated result of the formula shows that the residual service life of the equipment after the first maintenance is mu (T)1) The remaining life of the device after the second repair is μ (T)2) … …, the remaining life of the equipment after the Nth service is
Step four, the concrete steps include:
a, obtaining the purchase cost of the equipment as C according to the historical datarThe cost for one-time repair of the equipment is CfAnd the cost of performing one-time preventive maintenance on the equipment is Cp；
And 4, b, calculating the maintenance cost in unit time according to the whole service life of the equipment obtained by calculating the preventive maintenance time interval obtained in the step two and the residual service life obtained in the step three after the previous maintenance, wherein the specific formula is as follows:
c, the maintenance cost of the available equipment in unit time after 1 preventive maintenance is calculated to be c1Maintenance costs of the equipment per unit time over 2 preventive maintenance sessions are c2… …, maintenance cost per unit time for the equipment to undergo N preventive maintenance events is cNAnd selecting the maintenance frequency with the minimum maintenance cost in the maintenance unit time as the preventive maintenance frequency of the equipment.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710579008.1A CN107403226B (en) | 2017-07-17 | 2017-07-17 | Method for determining preventive maintenance interval and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710579008.1A CN107403226B (en) | 2017-07-17 | 2017-07-17 | Method for determining preventive maintenance interval and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN107403226A CN107403226A (en) | 2017-11-28 |
| CN107403226B true CN107403226B (en) | 2020-08-28 |
Family
ID=60401779
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710579008.1A Active CN107403226B (en) | 2017-07-17 | 2017-07-17 | Method for determining preventive maintenance interval and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN107403226B (en) |
Families Citing this family (11)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108459991B (en) * | 2018-03-12 | 2021-12-21 | 哈尔滨工程大学 | Method for obtaining equipment reliability data |
| CN110654949B (en) * | 2018-06-29 | 2021-02-19 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Method for determining safe remaining service life of elevator under maintenance condition |
| CN109583794A (en) * | 2018-12-29 | 2019-04-05 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | A kind of method of determining elevator failure time |
| CN109978259B (en) * | 2019-03-26 | 2020-07-07 | 中国人民解放军国防科技大学 | Method and system for predicting residual life of product based on q-type Weibull distribution |
| CN109919394B (en) * | 2019-03-29 | 2020-11-17 | 沈阳天眼智云信息科技有限公司 | Method for predicting residual life of power transformer |
| CN110264053A (en) * | 2019-06-10 | 2019-09-20 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | A kind of distribution network reliability evaluation method for considering Strategies of Maintenance and failure rate being influenced |
| CN112445199B (en) * | 2019-09-04 | 2022-03-15 | 上海杰之能软件科技有限公司 | Maintenance interval determining method and device, storage medium and terminal |
| CN110807594B (en) * | 2019-10-30 | 2022-10-28 | 中国人民解放军海军航空大学 | A method for calculating the interval time of equipment using echelon |
| CN111222212B (en) * | 2020-01-13 | 2022-09-09 | 西南石油大学 | Method for determining spacing between block valve chambers of ethane long-distance pipeline |
| CN111325477B (en) * | 2020-03-05 | 2022-04-29 | 西南交通大学 | Traction power supply system maintenance scheme determination method for reducing maintenance power failure time |
| CN114971401B (en) * | 2022-06-24 | 2025-03-11 | 中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司 | A method for determining maintenance cycle of urban rail equipment with incomplete maintenance |
Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US8571911B1 (en) * | 2001-11-16 | 2013-10-29 | Westinghouse Electric Company Llc | Facility life management method |
Family Cites Families (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20040111237A1 (en) * | 2002-12-04 | 2004-06-10 | Abb Inc. | Method for estimating residual life of industrial equipment |
-
2017
- 2017-07-17 CN CN201710579008.1A patent/CN107403226B/en active Active
Patent Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US8571911B1 (en) * | 2001-11-16 | 2013-10-29 | Westinghouse Electric Company Llc | Facility life management method |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN107403226A (en) | 2017-11-28 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN107403226B (en) | Method for determining preventive maintenance interval and times of traction power supply and transformation equipment based on residual life reliability | |
| CN108573350B (en) | A method for simultaneous calculation and multidimensional analysis of line loss in distribution network | |
| CN106059661A (en) | Time sequence analysis based optical transmission network trend prediction method | |
| CN105092917B (en) | A kind of electricity anti-theft system | |
| CN102709905B (en) | Power supply reliability automatic calculation and analysis device and method for low-voltage distribution network | |
| CN105388357A (en) | Electricity larceny prevention system | |
| CN109118035B (en) | Grid early warning information-based typhoon and waterlogging disaster power distribution network risk assessment method | |
| CN102930344A (en) | Method for forecasting ultra-short term bus load based on load trend changes | |
| CN103177186A (en) | Electric return circuit fault probability forecasting method | |
| CN104539051A (en) | Online evaluation system of secondary equipment of intelligent substation | |
| CN112147409B (en) | On-line impedance detection method and device for low-voltage distribution lines | |
| CN103632311A (en) | Fault examining system and method for power grid operation | |
| CN103646350A (en) | Power grid operating state assessment method based on risk theory | |
| CN110244163A (en) | A hierarchical intelligent research and judgment method and device for power outage and restoration events in a station area | |
| CN105067904B (en) | A kind of Lightning Warning data assessment method based on history lighting location data and power network Tripping data | |
| CN111209535B (en) | Power equipment successive fault risk identification method and system | |
| CN117592680A (en) | A distribution network elasticity assessment method and system based on spatio-temporal coordination of information data | |
| CN104734347A (en) | Distribution network terminal online rate automatic statistical method based on DMS system | |
| CN106203829A (en) | A kind of contact net reliability estimation method considering state of weather | |
| CN105958474A (en) | Power transmission line dynamic capacity increasing method and system used for power grid regulation and control system | |
| CN119397437A (en) | A statistical method for power grid load | |
| Abdel-Karim et al. | Short term wind speed prediction by finite and infinite impulse response filters: A state space model representation using discrete markov process | |
| CN103218530B (en) | The reliability estimation method of a kind of DC transmission system stoppage in transit maintenance mode and system | |
| CN103245850B (en) | The feeder line peak load predictor method of substation transformer | |
| CN101923605B (en) | Railway disaster prevention wind early warning method |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |