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CN107015875B - A method and device for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine - Google Patents

A method and device for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine Download PDF

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CN107015875B
CN107015875B CN201710206016.1A CN201710206016A CN107015875B CN 107015875 B CN107015875 B CN 107015875B CN 201710206016 A CN201710206016 A CN 201710206016A CN 107015875 B CN107015875 B CN 107015875B
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degradation data
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CN107015875A (en
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范晔
李宝玉
陈津虎
马晓东
杨志刚
贾生伟
胡彦平
陈文辉
王冀宁
张喆
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China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology CALT
Beijing Institute of Structure and Environment Engineering
Beijing Aerospace Automatic Control Research Institute
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Beijing Institute of Structure and Environment Engineering
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Abstract

本发明公开了一种电子整机贮存寿命评估方法及装置。方法包括:获取电子整机的性能退化数据和自然贮存年限;根据所述性能退化数据中的试验样本构建退化数据趋势模型,并根据所述退化数据趋势模型以及所述性能退化数据中的验证样本,获取所述电子整机的预测寿命;根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子;根据所述电子整机的预测寿命和所述加速因子获取所述电子整机的特征寿命。本发明通过对电子整机的性能退化数据进行分析,并根据分析结果评估电子整机的寿命,然后基于电子整机的贮存年限分析电子整机的加速因子,进而结合评估出的寿命和加速因子评估电子整机的特征寿命,具有评估精确度高的优点。

Figure 201710206016

The invention discloses a method and a device for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine. The method includes: acquiring performance degradation data and natural storage years of an electronic complete machine; constructing a degradation data trend model according to test samples in the performance degradation data, and according to the degradation data trend model and verification samples in the performance degradation data , obtain the predicted life of the complete electronic machine; obtain the acceleration factor according to the natural storage period and the pre-established acceleration model; obtain the characteristic life of the complete electronic machine according to the predicted life of the complete electronic machine and the acceleration factor. The invention analyzes the performance degradation data of the electronic complete machine, evaluates the life of the electronic complete machine according to the analysis results, then analyzes the acceleration factor of the electronic complete machine based on the storage life of the electronic complete machine, and then combines the estimated life and acceleration factor. Evaluating the characteristic life of an electronic complete machine has the advantage of high evaluation accuracy.

Figure 201710206016

Description

一种电子整机贮存寿命评估方法及装置A method and device for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine

技术领域technical field

本发明涉及电子整机技术领域,具体涉及一种电子整机贮存寿命评估方法及装置。The invention relates to the technical field of electronic complete machines, in particular to a method and device for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine.

背景技术Background technique

在电子整机加速贮存试验中,由于电子整机产品功能复杂等原因,存在产品性能退化规律复杂、自然贮存数据与加速贮存试验数据并存的情况。这种情况造成了试验结果评估的困难,传统的加速试验数据评估方法不能够针对这种情况进行数据处理,使得无法评估得到产品的加速因子或贮存寿命,无法达到试验目的。In the accelerated storage test of the electronic complete machine, due to the complex functions of the electronic complete machine product, there are situations where the product performance degradation law is complex, and the natural storage data and the accelerated storage test data coexist. This situation makes it difficult to evaluate the test results. The traditional accelerated test data evaluation method cannot process data for this situation, so that the acceleration factor or storage life of the product cannot be evaluated, and the test purpose cannot be achieved.

针对电子整机产品性能退化规律复杂、自然贮存数据与加速贮存试验数据并存情况的评估途径,是目前常见的、也是亟需解决的工程问题。采用有效的加速试验评估方法可以提高对数据资源的有效利用,进而提高评估结果的准确性,甚至可能影响研究结果,减少寿命评估结果不准确等情况所带来的隐患。It is a common engineering problem that needs to be solved urgently. Using an effective accelerated test evaluation method can improve the effective use of data resources, thereby improving the accuracy of the evaluation results, and may even affect the research results and reduce the hidden dangers caused by inaccurate life evaluation results.

对产品性能退化规律进行趋势预测时,常用的处理方法是回归分析方法,回归分析法用线性函数、指数函数、幂函数等对产品的性能退化数据进行回归拟合,得到退化趋势的回归方程,再进行退化趋势的预测,但对于一些规律复杂的非线性退化数据,回归分析方法的精度不高,甚至有时难以应用。目前研究的热点还有人工神经网络法,但在工程应用中,人工神经网络方法对产品退化趋势的预测不甚理想,其应用还有待进一步研究。When predicting the trend of the product performance degradation law, the commonly used processing method is the regression analysis method. The regression analysis method uses linear functions, exponential functions, power functions, etc. to perform regression fitting on the performance degradation data of the product, and obtain the regression equation of the degradation trend. The degradation trend is then predicted, but for some nonlinear degradation data with complex laws, the regression analysis method is not very accurate, and even sometimes difficult to apply. The current research hotspot is the artificial neural network method, but in engineering applications, the artificial neural network method is not ideal for predicting the trend of product degradation, and its application needs to be further studied.

在实现本发明的过程中,发明人发现对于自然贮存数据与加速贮存试验数据并存的情况,目前的处理方法是先采用加速试验数据进行试验结果评估,得到产品的贮存寿命结果,再简单的在寿命结果上加上自然贮存时间,甚至有时在评估加速因子时,会忽略掉自然贮存数据,这些处理方法都会使得评估结果产生偏差。In the process of realizing the present invention, the inventor found that for the coexistence of natural storage data and accelerated storage test data, the current processing method is to first use the accelerated test data to evaluate the test results, obtain the storage life results of the product, and then simply Adding the natural storage time to the life results, and even sometimes ignoring the natural storage data when evaluating the acceleration factor, these processing methods will bias the evaluation results.

发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

本发明的一个目的是解决现有技术在对电子整机产品进行贮存寿命的评估时评估结果存在误差的问题。An object of the present invention is to solve the problem of errors in the evaluation results when evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete product in the prior art.

本发明提出了一种电子整机贮存寿命评估方法,包括:The present invention provides a method for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine, including:

获取电子整机的性能退化数据和自然贮存年限;Obtain the performance degradation data and natural storage period of the electronic complete machine;

根据所述性能退化数据中的试验样本构建退化数据趋势模型,并根据所述退化数据趋势模型以及所述性能退化数据中的验证样本,获取所述电子整机的预测寿命;Build a degradation data trend model according to the test samples in the performance degradation data, and obtain the predicted life of the electronic complete machine according to the degradation data trend model and the verification samples in the performance degradation data;

根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子;Obtain the acceleration factor according to the natural storage period and the pre-established acceleration model;

根据所述电子整机的预测寿命和所述加速因子获取所述电子整机的特征寿命。The characteristic lifetime of the electronic complete unit is obtained according to the predicted lifetime of the electronic complete unit and the acceleration factor.

可选的,所述性能退化数据包括:多组包括产品性能数据和与所述产品性能数据对应的检测时间样本数据;Optionally, the performance degradation data includes: multiple sets of product performance data and detection time sample data corresponding to the product performance data;

相应地,所述根据所述性能退化数据中的试验样本构建退化数据趋势模型包括:Correspondingly, the building a degradation data trend model according to the test samples in the performance degradation data includes:

根据所述检测时间将所述性能退化数据划分为试验样本和验证样本;dividing the performance degradation data into test samples and verification samples according to the detection time;

利用支持向量机建立初始退化数据趋势模型;Use support vector machine to establish the initial degradation data trend model;

以所述试验样本中的产品性能数据为输入向量,性能退化数据值为输出向量,利用最小二乘支持向量机算法对所述初始退化数据趋势模型进行训练,构建退化数据趋势模型。Taking the product performance data in the test sample as the input vector and the performance degradation data as the output vector, the initial degradation data trend model is trained by using the least squares support vector machine algorithm to construct the degradation data trend model.

可选的,所述根据所述退化数据趋势模型以及所述性能退化数据中的验证样本,获取所述电子整机的预测寿命包括:Optionally, according to the degradation data trend model and the verification samples in the performance degradation data, obtaining the predicted life of the electronic complete machine includes:

按照检测时间的先后顺序,执行预测步骤;According to the order of detection time, the prediction step is performed;

所述预测步骤包括:The predicting step includes:

以所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据中的检测时间为输入,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取对应的产品性能参数的预测值;Taking the detection time in the first group of sample data in the verification sample as input, and combining with the degradation data trend model, obtain the predicted value of the corresponding product performance parameter;

判断所述产品性能参数的预测值是否达到产品失效阀值的上限或者下限;Determine whether the predicted value of the product performance parameter reaches the upper limit or lower limit of the product failure threshold;

若是,则将所述产品性能参数的预测值对应的检测时间作为所述电子整机的预测寿命。If so, the detection time corresponding to the predicted value of the product performance parameter is taken as the predicted life of the electronic complete machine.

可选的,若所述产品性能参数的预测值未达到产品失效阀值的上限或者下限,则根据所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据对所述退化数据趋势模型进行更新;Optionally, if the predicted value of the product performance parameter does not reach the upper limit or the lower limit of the product failure threshold, update the degradation data trend model according to the first set of sample data in the verification sample;

将所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据删除;delete the first group of sample data in the verification sample;

重复执行所述预测步骤,直至获取所述电子整机的预测寿命。The predicting step is repeatedly performed until the predicted lifetime of the electronic complete machine is obtained.

可选的,在根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子之前,所述方法还包括:Optionally, before obtaining the acceleration factor according to the natural storage period and the pre-established acceleration model, the method further includes:

根据所述性能退化数据包括的温度应力数据,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命;According to the temperature stress data included in the performance degradation data, combined with the degradation data trend model, obtain the predicted lifespan of a plurality of test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses;

根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命以及各试验电子整机的自然贮存年限构建加速模型;The acceleration model is constructed according to the predicted life of multiple test electronic complete machines under different temperature stress and the natural storage life of each test electronic complete machine;

相应地,根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子包括:Correspondingly, obtaining the acceleration factor according to the natural storage period and the pre-established acceleration model includes:

根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命评估所述加速模型中的参数;Evaluate the parameters in the acceleration model according to the predicted life of a plurality of test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses;

根据所述加速模型计算获取所述电子整机在不同温度应力下的加速因子。Acceleration factors of the electronic complete machine under different temperature stresses are obtained by calculating according to the acceleration model.

本发明提出了一种电子整机贮存寿命评估装置,包括:The invention provides a storage life evaluation device for an electronic complete machine, including:

获取模块,用于获取电子整机的性能退化数据和自然贮存年限;The acquisition module is used to acquire the performance degradation data and natural storage period of the electronic whole machine;

评估模块,用于根据所述性能退化数据中的试验样本构建退化数据趋势模型,并根据所述退化数据趋势模型以及所述性能退化数据中的验证样本,获取所述电子整机的预测寿命;an evaluation module, configured to construct a degradation data trend model according to the test samples in the performance degradation data, and obtain the predicted life of the electronic complete machine according to the degradation data trend model and the verification samples in the performance degradation data;

处理模块,用于根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子;a processing module, configured to obtain an acceleration factor according to the natural storage period and a pre-established acceleration model;

优化模块,用于根据所述电子整机的预测寿命和所述加速因子获取所述电子整机的特征寿命。An optimization module, configured to obtain the characteristic life of the electronic complete device according to the predicted life of the electronic complete device and the acceleration factor.

可选的,所述性能退化数据包括:多组包括产品性能数据和与所述产品性能数据对应的检测时间样本数据;Optionally, the performance degradation data includes: multiple sets of product performance data and detection time sample data corresponding to the product performance data;

相应地,所述评估模块,用于根据所述检测时间将所述性能退化数据划分为试验样本和验证样本;利用支持向量机建立初始退化数据趋势模型;以所述试验样本中的产品性能数据为输入向量,性能退化数据值为输出向量,利用最小二乘支持向量机算法对所述初始退化数据趋势模型进行训练,构建退化数据趋势模型。Correspondingly, the evaluation module is used to divide the performance degradation data into a test sample and a verification sample according to the detection time; use a support vector machine to establish an initial degradation data trend model; use the product performance data in the test sample is the input vector, the performance degradation data value is the output vector, and the initial degradation data trend model is trained by using the least squares support vector machine algorithm to construct the degradation data trend model.

可选的,所述评估模块,还用于按照检测时间的先后顺序,执行预测步骤;Optionally, the evaluation module is further configured to perform the prediction step according to the order of detection time;

所述预测步骤包括:以所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据中的检测时间为输入,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取对应的产品性能参数的预测值;判断所述产品性能参数的预测值是否达到产品失效阀值的上限或者下限;若是,则将所述产品性能参数的预测值对应的检测时间作为所述电子整机的预测寿命。The predicting step includes: taking the detection time in the first group of sample data in the verification sample as an input, and combining with the degradation data trend model to obtain the predicted value of the corresponding product performance parameter; judging the value of the product performance parameter. Whether the predicted value reaches the upper limit or lower limit of the product failure threshold; if so, the detection time corresponding to the predicted value of the product performance parameter is taken as the predicted life of the electronic complete machine.

可选的,所述评估模块,还用于若判断获知所述产品性能参数的预测值未达到产品失效阀值的上限或者下限,则根据所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据对所述退化数据趋势模型进行更新;将所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据删除;重复执行所述预测步骤,直至获取所述电子整机的预测寿命。Optionally, the evaluation module is further configured to, if it is judged that the predicted value of the product performance parameter does not reach the upper limit or the lower limit of the product failure threshold, then according to the first group of sample data in the verification sample, the The degradation data trend model is updated; the first group of sample data in the verification sample is deleted; and the predicting step is repeatedly performed until the predicted life of the electronic complete machine is obtained.

可选的,所述装置还包括:建模模块;Optionally, the device further includes: a modeling module;

所述建模模块,用于根据所述性能退化数据包括的温度应力数据,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命;根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命以及各试验电子整机的自然贮存年限构建加速模型;The modeling module is configured to obtain the predicted life spans of multiple test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses according to the temperature stress data included in the performance degradation data and in combination with the degradation data trend model; Build an accelerated model for the predicted life of the test electronic complete machine and the natural storage life of each test electronic complete machine;

相应地,所处理模块,用于根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命评估所述加速模型中的参数;根据所述加速模型计算获取所述电子整机在不同温度应力下的加速因子。Correspondingly, the processing module is used to evaluate the parameters in the acceleration model according to the predicted life of a plurality of test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses; calculate and obtain the electronic complete machine under different temperature stresses according to the acceleration model acceleration factor.

由上述技术方案可知,本发明提出的一种电子整机贮存寿命评估方法及装置通过对电子整机的性能退化数据进行分析,并根据分析结果评估电子整机的寿命,然后基于电子整机的贮存年限分析电子整机的加速因子,进而结合评估出的寿命和加速因子评估电子整机的特征寿命,具有评估精确度高的优点。。It can be seen from the above technical solutions that the method and device for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine proposed by the present invention analyze the performance degradation data of the electronic complete machine, and evaluate the life of the electronic complete machine according to the analysis results, and then based on the electronic complete machine. The storage life analyzes the acceleration factor of the complete electronic machine, and then combines the estimated life and the acceleration factor to evaluate the characteristic life of the electronic complete machine, which has the advantage of high evaluation accuracy. .

附图说明Description of drawings

通过参考附图会更加清楚的理解本发明的特征和优点,附图是示意性的而不应理解为对本发明进行任何限制,在附图中:The features and advantages of the present invention will be more clearly understood by reference to the accompanying drawings, which are schematic and should not be construed as limiting the invention in any way, in which:

图1示出了本发明一提供的一种电子整机贮存寿命评估方法的流程示意图;FIG. 1 shows a schematic flowchart of a method for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine provided by the present invention;

图2示出了本发明提供的预测步骤的流程示意图;FIG. 2 shows a schematic flowchart of a prediction step provided by the present invention;

图3a-图3c示出了本发明提供的不同应力量级下的产品测试数据的示意图;3a-3c show schematic diagrams of product test data under different stress levels provided by the present invention;

图4a-图4c示出了本发明提供的不同应力量级下的产品退化趋势预测曲线示意图;Figures 4a-4c show schematic diagrams of product degradation trend prediction curves under different stress levels provided by the present invention;

图5示出了本发明提供的一种电子整机贮存寿命评估装置的结构示意图。FIG. 5 shows a schematic structural diagram of a device for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine provided by the present invention.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

为使本发明的目的、技术方案和优点更加清楚,下面将结合本发明中的附图,对本发明中的技术方案进行清楚、完整地描述,显然,所描述的实施例是本发明的一部分实施例,而不是全部的实施例。基于本发明中的实施例,本领域普通技术人员在没有做出创造性劳动的前提下所获得的所有其他实施例,都属于本发明保护的范围。In order to make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the present invention will be described clearly and completely below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the implementation of the present invention. examples, but not all examples. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative work fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

图1示出了本发明一实施例提供的一种电子整机贮存寿命评估方法的流程示意图,参见图1,该方法可由处理器实现,具体包括如下步骤:FIG. 1 shows a schematic flowchart of a method for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine according to an embodiment of the present invention. Referring to FIG. 1 , the method can be implemented by a processor, and specifically includes the following steps:

110、获取电子整机的性能退化数据和自然贮存年限;110. Obtain the performance degradation data and natural storage period of the electronic complete machine;

120、根据所述性能退化数据中的试验样本构建退化数据趋势模型,并根据所述退化数据趋势模型以及所述性能退化数据中的验证样本,获取所述电子整机的预测寿命;120. Construct a degradation data trend model according to the test samples in the performance degradation data, and obtain the predicted life of the electronic complete machine according to the degradation data trend model and the verification samples in the performance degradation data;

130、根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子;130. Obtain an acceleration factor according to the natural storage period and a pre-established acceleration model;

需要说明的是,在步骤130之前,还包括:根据所述性能退化数据包括的温度应力数据,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命;根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命以及各试验电子整机的自然贮存年限构建加速模型;It should be noted that, before step 130, the method further includes: according to the temperature stress data included in the performance degradation data, combined with the degradation data trend model, to obtain the predicted life spans of multiple test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses; The predicted life of multiple test electronic complete machines under temperature stress and the natural storage life of each test electronic complete machine build an accelerated model;

相应地,步骤130具体包括:Correspondingly, step 130 specifically includes:

根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命评估所述加速模型中的参数;根据所述加速模型计算获取所述电子整机在不同温度应力下的加速因子。The parameters in the acceleration model are evaluated according to the predicted lifetimes of multiple test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses; and the acceleration factors of the electronic complete machine under different temperature stresses are obtained by calculating according to the acceleration model.

140、根据所述电子整机的预测寿命和所述加速因子获取所述电子整机的特征寿命。140. Obtain the characteristic life of the complete electronic device according to the predicted life of the complete electronic device and the acceleration factor.

可见,本发明实施例通过对电子整机的性能退化数据进行分析,并根据分析结果评估电子整机的寿命,然后基于电子整机的贮存年限分析电子整机的加速因子,进而结合评估出的寿命和加速因子评估电子整机的特征寿命,具有评估精确度高的优点。It can be seen that the embodiment of the present invention analyzes the performance degradation data of the electronic complete machine, evaluates the life of the electronic complete machine according to the analysis results, and then analyzes the acceleration factor of the electronic complete machine based on the storage life of the electronic complete machine, and then combines the evaluated results. The life and acceleration factors evaluate the characteristic life of the electronic complete machine, which has the advantage of high evaluation accuracy.

图2示出了本发明一实施例提供的预测步骤的流程示意图,该方法可由处理器实现,具体包括如下步骤:FIG. 2 shows a schematic flowchart of a prediction step provided by an embodiment of the present invention. The method can be implemented by a processor, and specifically includes the following steps:

210、训练数据210. Training data

所述性能退化数据包括:多组包括产品性能数据和与所述产品性能数据对应的检测时间样本数据;The performance degradation data includes: multiple sets of product performance data and detection time sample data corresponding to the product performance data;

220、通过最小二乘支持向量机建立退化趋势模型220. Establish a degradation trend model through the least squares support vector machine

根据所述检测时间将所述性能退化数据划分为试验样本和验证样本;dividing the performance degradation data into test samples and verification samples according to the detection time;

利用支持向量机建立初始退化数据趋势模型;Use support vector machine to establish the initial degradation data trend model;

以所述试验样本中的产品性能数据为输入向量,性能退化数据值为输出向量,利用最小二乘支持向量机算法对所述初始退化数据趋势模型进行训练,构建退化数据趋势模型。Taking the product performance data in the test sample as the input vector and the performance degradation data as the output vector, the initial degradation data trend model is trained by using the least squares support vector machine algorithm to construct the degradation data trend model.

230、根据退化趋势模型预测性能退化数据值230. Predict the performance degradation data value according to the degradation trend model

按照检测时间的先后顺序,执行预测步骤;According to the order of detection time, the prediction step is performed;

所述预测步骤包括:The predicting step includes:

以所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据中的检测时间为输入,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取对应的产品性能参数的预测值;Taking the detection time in the first group of sample data in the verification sample as input, and combining with the degradation data trend model, obtain the predicted value of the corresponding product performance parameter;

240、判断性能退化数据值是否达到失效阀值,若是,则执行步骤250;若否,则执行步骤260;240. Determine whether the performance degradation data value reaches the failure threshold, if so, execute step 250; if not, execute step 260;

250、将所述产品性能参数的预测值对应的检测时间作为所述电子整机的预测寿命。250. Use the detection time corresponding to the predicted value of the product performance parameter as the predicted life of the electronic complete machine.

260、根据所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据对所述退化数据趋势模型进行更新;将所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据删除;260. Update the degradation data trend model according to the first group of sample data in the verification sample; delete the first group of sample data in the verification sample;

重复执行所述预测步骤,直至获取所述电子整机的预测寿命。The predicting step is repeatedly performed until the predicted lifetime of the electronic complete machine is obtained.

下面结合某型电子整机加速贮存试验的结果评估,对本发明作进一步详细说明:The present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the evaluation of the results of the accelerated storage test of a certain type of electronic complete machine:

投入某型电子整机产品9台进行加速贮存试验,9台产品都已有一定的自然贮存年限,试验采用恒定应力施加方式进行,试验应力为温度应力,应力水平分为3个等级,分别为80℃、95℃和110℃,每个应力水平下各安排3台产品进行试验,试验期间按照规定测试点进行产品的性能参数测试,得到了9台产品的性能退化数据,如图3a-图3c,数据已略去单位。9 units of a certain type of electronic complete machine were put into the accelerated storage test. All 9 units have a certain natural storage period. The test is carried out by applying constant stress. The test stress is temperature stress, and the stress level is divided into 3 grades, respectively At 80°C, 95°C and 110°C, 3 products were arranged for each stress level for testing. During the test, the performance parameters of the products were tested according to the specified test points, and the performance degradation data of 9 products were obtained, as shown in Figure 3a-Fig. 3c, the data has units omitted.

步骤一、利用支持向量机建立退化数据趋势模型:Step 1. Use support vector machine to establish a degradation data trend model:

首先利用支持向量机建立退化数据的趋势模型,以性能退化数据对应的检测时间T=(t1,t2,…,tn)为输入向量,性能退化数据值Y=(y1,y2,…,yn)为输出向量,利用最小二乘支持向量机算法可训练得出退化数据趋势模型:Firstly, the trend model of degraded data is established by support vector machine, the detection time T=(t 1 , t 2 ,..., t n ) corresponding to the performance degradation data is used as the input vector, and the performance degradation data value Y=(y 1 , y 2 ) ,…,y n ) is the output vector, and the least squares support vector machine algorithm can be used to train the degraded data trend model:

Figure BDA0001259837500000071
Figure BDA0001259837500000071

式中,α与β支持向量机模型参数,ψ(*)为核函数,这里使用的核函数为径向基(RBF)核函数。In the formula, α and β support vector machine model parameters, ψ(*) is the kernel function, and the kernel function used here is the radial basis (RBF) kernel function.

本发明通过MATLAB软件中的最小二乘支持向量机工具箱完成上述趋势模型的建立,通过调节正则参数gam(本例取gam=220),内核参数sig2(本例取sig2=13),得到适合的退化数据趋势模型。The present invention completes the establishment of the above trend model through the least squares support vector machine toolbox in the MATLAB software. Degraded data trend model.

步骤二、利用退化趋势模型预测产品寿命:Step 2. Use the degradation trend model to predict product life:

通过得到的退化趋势模型f(t),将预测数据对应的时间tn+1作为输入,可得到产品性能参数的预测值yn+1,即得到一组预测数据{tn+1,yn+1}。把这组数据加入原有的性能退化数据中作为新的模型训练数据,即新的模型训练数据为T’=(t1,t2,…,tn,tn+1)和Y’=(y1,y2,…,yn,yn+1),可得到新的退化数据趋势模型f’(t),再通过新的退化数据趋势模型f’(t)得到下一组预测数据{tn+2,yn+2}。这样按照上述方法不断更新预测模型并预测产品性能数据,当预测得到的产品性能数据{tn+m,yn+m}(m≥1)达到了产品失效阀值(失效阀值为0.639)时,tn+m即为产品的预测寿命。Through the obtained degradation trend model f(t), the time t n+1 corresponding to the predicted data is used as the input, and the predicted value y n+1 of the product performance parameters can be obtained, that is, a set of predicted data {t n+1 , y n+1 }. Add this set of data to the original performance degradation data as new model training data, that is, the new model training data is T'=(t 1 ,t 2 ,...,t n ,t n+1 ) and Y'= (y 1 ,y 2 ,…,y n ,y n+1 ), a new degradation data trend model f'(t) can be obtained, and then the next set of predictions can be obtained through the new degradation data trend model f'(t) Data {t n+2 ,y n+2 }. In this way, the prediction model is continuously updated and the product performance data is predicted according to the above method. When the predicted product performance data {t n+m , y n+m } (m≥1) reaches the product failure threshold (the failure threshold is 0.639) , t n+m is the predicted life of the product.

得到各个应力等级下产品的退化趋势预测曲线见图4a-图4c,产品的寿命预测结果如表1所示。The degradation trend prediction curves of the products under various stress levels are shown in Figure 4a-4c, and the life prediction results of the products are shown in Table 1.

表1寿命预测结果Table 1 Lifetime prediction results

Figure BDA0001259837500000081
Figure BDA0001259837500000081

步骤三、合并自然贮存数据与加速贮存试验数据:Step 3. Combine natural storage data and accelerated storage test data:

在温度应力Si(i=1,2,…,k)下共有ri个产品,预测得到这些产品在应力Si下的寿命分别为Pi1,Pi2,…,Piri(见表1),产品已有的自然贮存年限分别为Qi1,Qi2,…,Qiri(9台产品分别为8年、8年、10年、10年、10年、10年、8年、8年、8年),并设加速温度应力Si(i=1,2,…,k)相对于正常温度应力S0的加速因子为Ai,则产品在温度应力Si下的实际寿命应为:There are r i products under the temperature stress Si ( i =1,2,...,k), and the predicted lifetimes of these products under the stress Si are P i1 , P i2 ,...,P iri (see Table 1). ), the natural storage years of the products are respectively Qi1 , Qi2 ,…, Qiri (9 products are respectively 8 years, 8 years, 10 years, 10 years, 10 years, 10 years, 8 years, 8 years , 8 years), and set the acceleration factor of the accelerated temperature stress Si ( i =1,2,…,k) relative to the normal temperature stress S0 as Ai, then the actual life of the product under the temperature stress Si should be:

Lij=Pij+Qij/Ai(i=1,2,…,k;j=1,2,…,ri) (2) Li ij =P ij +Q ij /A i (i=1,2,...,k; j =1,2,...,ri ) (2)

步骤四、加速模型参数评估:Step 4. Accelerate model parameter evaluation:

产品的特征寿命θi与加速温度应力Si之间有如下加速模型:There is the following acceleration model between the characteristic life θ i of the product and the accelerated temperature stress Si :

Figure BDA0001259837500000091
Figure BDA0001259837500000091

式中,a与b为待估参数,Si为加速温度应力。In the formula, a and b are the parameters to be estimated, and Si is the accelerated temperature stress.

根据加速模型可得到产品在加速应力水平Si下相对于正常应力水平S0下的加速因子为:According to the acceleration model, the acceleration factor of the product under the accelerated stress level Si relative to the normal stress level S 0 can be obtained as:

Figure BDA0001259837500000092
Figure BDA0001259837500000092

可知Ai为b的函数,则式(2)中的产品寿命Lij均为b的函数。It can be known that A i is a function of b, then the product life L ij in formula (2) is a function of b.

一般假设复杂电子整机产品的寿命服从指数分布,根据指数分布的参数估计方法,各个应力等级Si下产品平均寿命的极大似然估计为:It is generally assumed that the life of complex electronic products obeys the exponential distribution. According to the parameter estimation method of the exponential distribution, the maximum likelihood estimation of the average life of the product under each stress level Si is:

Figure BDA0001259837500000093
Figure BDA0001259837500000093

由于Lij均为b的函数,所以θi也都是b的函数。Since Li ij is a function of b, so θ i is also a function of b.

根据k组温度应力水平与平均寿命{1/Si,lnθi}(i=1,2,…,k),利用式(3),通过最小二乘法可得到参数a与b的估计值:According to the temperature stress level of the k group and the average life {1/S i ,lnθ i }(i=1,2,...,k), using the formula (3), the estimated values of the parameters a and b can be obtained by the least square method:

Figure BDA0001259837500000094
Figure BDA0001259837500000094

对上述超越方程组进行求解,本发明通过MATLAB软件编程实现上述方程组的求解,结果为a=-6.17,b=5644.8。To solve the above-mentioned transcendental equations, the present invention realizes the solving of the above-mentioned equations through MATLAB software programming, and the results are a=-6.17, b=5644.8.

步骤五、加速因子与贮存寿命评估:Step 5. Evaluation of acceleration factor and storage life:

得到参数a与b后,即可根据式(4)计算得到加速因子,得到某型电子整机在各个加速温度应力下相对于常温(25℃)下的加速因子,结果如表2所示。并根据式(3)计算得到产品在常温(25℃)下的贮存特征寿命,结果为40.2年。After the parameters a and b are obtained, the acceleration factor can be calculated according to formula (4), and the acceleration factor of a certain type of electronic machine under each accelerated temperature stress relative to normal temperature (25°C) can be obtained. The results are shown in Table 2. And according to formula (3), the storage characteristic life of the product at normal temperature (25°C) was calculated, and the result was 40.2 years.

表2加速因子结果Table 2 Acceleration factor results

Figure BDA0001259837500000101
Figure BDA0001259837500000101

可见,本发明具有如下技术效果:It can be seen that the present invention has the following technical effects:

(1)对线性或非线性退化数据的趋势的进行预测时,利用支持向量机进行建模可以使预测数据的趋势与观测数据保持一致,且支持向量机使用起来十分方便。(1) When predicting the trend of linear or nonlinear degraded data, using support vector machine for modeling can make the trend of the predicted data consistent with the observed data, and the support vector machine is very convenient to use.

(2)对于已有一定贮存年限的产品,利用加速因子将自然使用数据与加速试验数据结合起来,可以充分、合理的利用自然贮存数据,提高了数据资源的利用率,使评估结果的精度更高。(2) For products that have been stored for a certain period of time, the acceleration factor is used to combine the natural use data with the accelerated test data, which can fully and reasonably utilize the natural storage data, improve the utilization rate of data resources, and make the evaluation results more accurate. high.

对于方法实施方式,为了简单描述,故将其都表述为一系列的动作组合,但是本领域技术人员应该知悉,本发明实施方式并不受所描述的动作顺序的限制,因为依据本发明实施方式,某些步骤可以采用其他顺序或者同时进行。其次,本领域技术人员也应该知悉,说明书中所描述的实施方式均属于优选实施方式,所涉及的动作并不一定是本发明实施方式所必须的。For the method implementation, for the sake of simple description, it is expressed as a series of action combinations, but those skilled in the art should know that the implementation of the present invention is not limited by the described action sequence, because according to the implementation of the present invention , certain steps may be performed in other orders or simultaneously. Secondly, those skilled in the art should also know that the embodiments described in the specification are all preferred embodiments, and the actions involved are not necessarily necessary for the embodiments of the present invention.

图5示出了本发明一实施例提供的一种电子整机贮存寿命评估装置的结构示意图,参见图5,该装置包括:获取模块510、评估模块520、处理模块530以及优化模块540,其中:FIG. 5 shows a schematic structural diagram of an apparatus for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine according to an embodiment of the present invention. Referring to FIG. 5 , the apparatus includes: an acquisition module 510 , an evaluation module 520 , a processing module 530 and an optimization module 540 , wherein :

获取模块510,用于获取电子整机的性能退化数据和自然贮存年限;an acquisition module 510, used for acquiring performance degradation data and natural storage years of the electronic complete machine;

评估模块520,用于根据所述性能退化数据中的试验样本构建退化数据趋势模型,并根据所述退化数据趋势模型以及所述性能退化数据中的验证样本,获取所述电子整机的预测寿命;The evaluation module 520 is configured to construct a degradation data trend model according to the test samples in the performance degradation data, and obtain the predicted life of the electronic complete machine according to the degradation data trend model and the verification samples in the performance degradation data ;

处理模块530,用于根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子;a processing module 530, configured to obtain an acceleration factor according to the natural storage age and a pre-established acceleration model;

优化模块540,用于根据所述电子整机的预测寿命和所述加速因子获取所述电子整机的特征寿命。The optimization module 540 is configured to obtain the characteristic life of the electronic complete device according to the predicted life of the electronic complete device and the acceleration factor.

下面对本实施例中的各功能模型进行详细说明:Each functional model in this embodiment is described in detail below:

性能退化数据包括:多组包括产品性能数据和与所述产品性能数据对应的检测时间样本数据;The performance degradation data includes: multiple sets of product performance data and sample data of detection time corresponding to the product performance data;

所述评估模块520,用于根据所述检测时间将所述性能退化数据划分为试验样本和验证样本;利用支持向量机建立初始退化数据趋势模型;以所述试验样本中的产品性能数据为输入向量,性能退化数据值为输出向量,利用最小二乘支持向量机算法对所述初始退化数据趋势模型进行训练,构建退化数据趋势模型。The evaluation module 520 is configured to divide the performance degradation data into a test sample and a verification sample according to the detection time; use a support vector machine to establish an initial degradation data trend model; take the product performance data in the test sample as input vector, the performance degradation data value is an output vector, and the initial degradation data trend model is trained by using the least squares support vector machine algorithm to construct a degradation data trend model.

所述评估模块520,还用于按照检测时间的先后顺序,执行预测步骤;The evaluation module 520 is further configured to perform the prediction step according to the order of detection time;

所述预测步骤包括:以所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据中的检测时间为输入,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取对应的产品性能参数的预测值;判断所述产品性能参数的预测值是否达到产品失效阀值的上限或者下限;若是,则将所述产品性能参数的预测值对应的检测时间作为所述电子整机的预测寿命。The predicting step includes: taking the detection time in the first group of sample data in the verification sample as an input, and combining with the degradation data trend model to obtain the predicted value of the corresponding product performance parameter; judging the value of the product performance parameter. Whether the predicted value reaches the upper limit or lower limit of the product failure threshold; if so, the detection time corresponding to the predicted value of the product performance parameter is taken as the predicted life of the electronic complete machine.

所述评估模块520,还用于若判断获知所述产品性能参数的预测值未达到产品失效阀值的上限或者下限,则根据所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据对所述退化数据趋势模型进行更新;将所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据删除;重复执行所述预测步骤,直至获取所述电子整机的预测寿命。The evaluation module 520 is further configured to analyze the trend of the degradation data according to the first set of sample data in the verification sample if it is determined that the predicted value of the product performance parameter does not reach the upper limit or the lower limit of the product failure threshold. The model is updated; the first group of sample data in the verification sample is deleted; and the prediction step is repeatedly performed until the predicted life of the electronic complete machine is obtained.

在一可行实例中,装置还包括:建模模块;In a feasible example, the apparatus further includes: a modeling module;

所述建模模块,用于根据所述性能退化数据包括的温度应力数据,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命;根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命以及各试验电子整机的自然贮存年限构建加速模型;The modeling module is configured to obtain the predicted life spans of multiple test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses according to the temperature stress data included in the performance degradation data and in combination with the degradation data trend model; Build an accelerated model for the predicted life of the test electronic complete machine and the natural storage life of each test electronic complete machine;

相应地,所处理模块530,用于根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命评估所述加速模型中的参数;根据所述加速模型计算获取所述电子整机在不同温度应力下的加速因子。Correspondingly, the processing module 530 is used to evaluate the parameters in the acceleration model according to the predicted life of a plurality of test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses; calculate and obtain the electronic complete machine under different temperature stresses according to the acceleration model. acceleration factor.

可见,本发明实施例通过对电子整机的性能退化数据进行分析,并根据分析结果评估电子整机的寿命,然后基于电子整机的贮存年限分析电子整机的加速因子,进而结合评估出的寿命和加速因此评估电子整机的特征寿命,具有评估精确度高的优点。It can be seen that the embodiment of the present invention analyzes the performance degradation data of the electronic complete machine, evaluates the life of the electronic complete machine according to the analysis results, and then analyzes the acceleration factor of the electronic complete machine based on the storage life of the electronic complete machine, and then combines the evaluated results. Lifetime and Acceleration Therefore, the characteristic lifetime of the electronic complete machine is evaluated, which has the advantage of high evaluation accuracy.

对于装置实施方式而言,由于其与方法实施方式基本相似,所以描述的比较简单,相关之处参见方法实施方式的部分说明即可。As for the apparatus implementation, since it is basically similar to the method implementation, the description is relatively simple, and for related parts, please refer to the partial description of the method implementation.

应当注意的是,在本发明的装置的各个部件中,根据其要实现的功能而对其中的部件进行了逻辑划分,但是,本发明不受限于此,可以根据需要对各个部件进行重新划分或者组合。It should be noted that, in each component of the device of the present invention, the components are logically divided according to the functions to be implemented, but the present invention is not limited to this, and each component can be re-divided as required or a combination.

本发明的各个部件实施方式可以以硬件实现,或者以在一个或者多个处理器上运行的软件模块实现,或者以它们的组合实现。本装置中,PC通过实现因特网对设备或者装置远程控制,精准的控制设备或者装置每个操作的步骤。本发明还可以实现为用于执行这里所描述的方法的一部分或者全部的设备或者装置程序(例如,计算机程序和计算机程序产品)。这样实现本发明的程序可以存储在计算机可读介质上,并且程序产生的文件或文档具有可统计性,产生数据报告和cpk报告等,能对功放进行批量测试并统计。应该注意的是上述实施方式对本发明进行说明而不是对本发明进行限制,并且本领域技术人员在不脱离所附权利要求的范围的情况下可设计出替换实施方式。在权利要求中,不应将位于括号之间的任何参考符号构造成对权利要求的限制。单词“包含”不排除存在未列在权利要求中的元件或步骤。位于元件之前的单词“一”或“一个”不排除存在多个这样的元件。本发明可以借助于包括有若干不同元件的硬件以及借助于适当编程的计算机来实现。在列举了若干装置的单元权利要求中,这些装置中的若干个可以是通过同一个硬件项来具体体现。单词第一、第二、以及第三等的使用不表示任何顺序。可将这些单词解释为名称。Various component embodiments of the present invention may be implemented in hardware, or in software modules running on one or more processors, or in a combination thereof. In this device, the PC controls the device or device remotely through the Internet, and precisely controls each operation step of the device or device. The present invention can also be implemented as apparatus or apparatus programs (eg, computer programs and computer program products) for performing part or all of the methods described herein. The program implementing the present invention in this way can be stored on a computer-readable medium, and the files or documents generated by the program can be counted, generate data reports and cpk reports, etc., and can perform batch testing and statistics on power amplifiers. It should be noted that the above-described embodiments illustrate rather than limit the invention, and that alternative embodiments may be devised by those skilled in the art without departing from the scope of the appended claims. In the claims, any reference signs placed between parentheses shall not be construed as limiting the claim. The word "comprising" does not exclude the presence of elements or steps not listed in a claim. The word "a" or "an" preceding an element does not exclude the presence of a plurality of such elements. The invention can be implemented by means of hardware comprising several different elements and by means of a suitably programmed computer. In a unit claim enumerating several means, several of these means may be embodied by one and the same item of hardware. The use of the words first, second, and third, etc. do not denote any order. These words can be interpreted as names.

最后应说明的是:以上实施例仅用以说明本发明的技术方案,而非对其限制;尽管参照前述实施例对本发明进行了详细的说明,本领域的普通技术人员应当理解:其依然可以对前述各实施例所记载的技术方案进行修改,或者对其中部分技术特征进行等同替换;而这些修改或者替换,并不使相应技术方案的本质脱离本发明各实施例技术方案的精神和范围。Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, but not to limit them; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that it can still be The technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments are modified, or some technical features thereof are equivalently replaced; and these modifications or replacements do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims (8)

1.一种电子整机贮存寿命评估方法,其特征在于,包括:1. A method for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine, comprising: 获取电子整机的性能退化数据和自然贮存年限;Obtain the performance degradation data and natural storage period of the electronic complete machine; 根据所述性能退化数据中的试验样本构建退化数据趋势模型,并根据所述退化数据趋势模型以及所述性能退化数据中的验证样本,获取所述电子整机的预测寿命;Build a degradation data trend model according to the test samples in the performance degradation data, and obtain the predicted life of the electronic complete machine according to the degradation data trend model and the verification samples in the performance degradation data; 根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子;Obtain the acceleration factor according to the natural storage period and the pre-established acceleration model; 根据所述电子整机的预测寿命和所述加速因子获取所述电子整机的特征寿命;Obtain the characteristic life of the electronic complete device according to the predicted life of the electronic complete device and the acceleration factor; 其中,在根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子之前,所述方法还包括:Wherein, before obtaining the acceleration factor according to the natural storage period and the pre-established acceleration model, the method further includes: 根据所述性能退化数据包括的温度应力数据,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命;According to the temperature stress data included in the performance degradation data, combined with the degradation data trend model, obtain the predicted lifespan of a plurality of test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses; 根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命以及各试验电子整机的自然贮存年限构建加速模型;The acceleration model is constructed according to the predicted life of multiple test electronic complete machines under different temperature stress and the natural storage life of each test electronic complete machine; 相应地,所述根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子包括:Correspondingly, the obtaining of the acceleration factor according to the natural storage period and the pre-established acceleration model includes: 根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命评估所述加速模型中的参数;Evaluate the parameters in the acceleration model according to the predicted life of a plurality of test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses; 根据所述加速模型计算获取所述电子整机在不同温度应力下的加速因子。Acceleration factors of the electronic complete machine under different temperature stresses are obtained by calculating according to the acceleration model. 2.根据权利要求1所述的方法,其特征在于,所述性能退化数据包括:多组包括产品性能数据和与所述产品性能数据对应的检测时间样本数据;2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the performance degradation data comprises: a plurality of groups comprising product performance data and detection time sample data corresponding to the product performance data; 相应地,所述根据所述性能退化数据中的试验样本构建退化数据趋势模型包括:Correspondingly, the building a degradation data trend model according to the test samples in the performance degradation data includes: 根据所述检测时间将所述性能退化数据划分为试验样本和验证样本;dividing the performance degradation data into test samples and verification samples according to the detection time; 利用支持向量机建立初始退化数据趋势模型;Use support vector machine to establish the initial degradation data trend model; 以所述试验样本中的产品性能数据为输入向量,性能退化数据值为输出向量,利用最小二乘支持向量机算法对所述初始退化数据趋势模型进行训练,构建退化数据趋势模型。Taking the product performance data in the test sample as the input vector and the performance degradation data as the output vector, the initial degradation data trend model is trained by using the least squares support vector machine algorithm to construct the degradation data trend model. 3.根据权利要求2所述的方法,其特征在于,所述根据所述退化数据趋势模型以及所述性能退化数据中的验证样本,获取所述电子整机的预测寿命包括:3 . The method according to claim 2 , wherein, according to the degradation data trend model and the verification samples in the performance degradation data, obtaining the predicted life of the electronic complete machine comprises: 3 . 按照检测时间的先后顺序,执行预测步骤;According to the order of detection time, the prediction step is performed; 所述预测步骤包括:The predicting step includes: 以所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据中的检测时间为输入,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取对应的产品性能参数的预测值;Taking the detection time in the first group of sample data in the verification sample as input, and combining with the degradation data trend model, obtain the predicted value of the corresponding product performance parameter; 判断所述产品性能参数的预测值是否达到产品失效阀值的上限或者下限;Determine whether the predicted value of the product performance parameter reaches the upper limit or lower limit of the product failure threshold; 若是,则将所述产品性能参数的预测值对应的检测时间作为所述电子整机的预测寿命。If so, the detection time corresponding to the predicted value of the product performance parameter is taken as the predicted life of the electronic complete machine. 4.根据权利要求3所述的方法,其特征在于,若所述产品性能参数的预测值未达到产品失效阀值的上限或者下限,则根据所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据对所述退化数据趋势模型进行更新;4. The method according to claim 3, wherein, if the predicted value of the product performance parameter does not reach the upper limit or the lower limit of the product failure threshold, then according to the first group of sample data in the verification sample Update the degraded data trend model described above; 将所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据删除;delete the first group of sample data in the verification sample; 重复执行所述预测步骤,直至获取所述电子整机的预测寿命。The predicting step is repeatedly performed until the predicted lifetime of the electronic complete machine is obtained. 5.一种电子整机贮存寿命评估装置,其特征在于,包括:5. A device for evaluating the storage life of an electronic complete machine, comprising: 获取模块,用于获取电子整机的性能退化数据和自然贮存年限;The acquisition module is used to acquire the performance degradation data and natural storage period of the electronic whole machine; 评估模块,用于根据所述性能退化数据中的试验样本构建退化数据趋势模型,并根据所述退化数据趋势模型以及所述性能退化数据中的验证样本,获取所述电子整机的预测寿命;an evaluation module, configured to construct a degradation data trend model according to the test samples in the performance degradation data, and obtain the predicted life of the electronic complete machine according to the degradation data trend model and the verification samples in the performance degradation data; 处理模块,用于根据所述自然贮存年限和预建立加速模型获取加速因子;a processing module, configured to obtain an acceleration factor according to the natural storage period and a pre-established acceleration model; 优化模块,用于根据所述电子整机的预测寿命和所述加速因子获取所述电子整机的特征寿命;an optimization module, used for obtaining the characteristic life of the electronic complete machine according to the predicted life of the electronic complete machine and the acceleration factor; 其中,所述装置还包括:建模模块;Wherein, the device further includes: a modeling module; 所述建模模块,用于根据所述性能退化数据包括的温度应力数据,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命;根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命以及各试验电子整机的自然贮存年限构建加速模型;The modeling module is configured to obtain the predicted life spans of multiple test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses according to the temperature stress data included in the performance degradation data and in combination with the degradation data trend model; Build an accelerated model for the predicted life of the test electronic complete machine and the natural storage life of each test electronic complete machine; 相应地,所述处理模块,用于根据不同温度应力下多个试验电子整机的预测寿命评估所述加速模型中的参数;根据所述加速模型计算获取所述电子整机在不同温度应力下的加速因子。Correspondingly, the processing module is used to evaluate the parameters in the acceleration model according to the predicted lifespan of a plurality of test electronic complete machines under different temperature stresses; calculate and obtain the electronic complete machine under different temperature stresses according to the acceleration model. acceleration factor. 6.根据权利要求5所述的装置,其特征在于,所述性能退化数据包括:多组包括产品性能数据和与所述产品性能数据对应的检测时间样本数据;6 . The device according to claim 5 , wherein the performance degradation data comprises: multiple sets of product performance data and detection time sample data corresponding to the product performance data; 6 . 相应地,所述评估模块,用于根据所述检测时间将所述性能退化数据划分为试验样本和验证样本;利用支持向量机建立初始退化数据趋势模型;以所述试验样本中的产品性能数据为输入向量,性能退化数据值为输出向量,利用最小二乘支持向量机算法对所述初始退化数据趋势模型进行训练,构建退化数据趋势模型。Correspondingly, the evaluation module is used to divide the performance degradation data into a test sample and a verification sample according to the detection time; use a support vector machine to establish an initial degradation data trend model; use the product performance data in the test sample is the input vector, the performance degradation data value is the output vector, and the initial degradation data trend model is trained by using the least squares support vector machine algorithm to construct the degradation data trend model. 7.根据权利要求6所述的装置,其特征在于,所述评估模块,还用于按照检测时间的先后顺序,执行预测步骤;7. The device according to claim 6, wherein the evaluation module is further configured to perform the prediction step according to the order of detection time; 所述预测步骤包括:以所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据中的检测时间为输入,结合所述退化数据趋势模型,获取对应的产品性能参数的预测值;判断所述产品性能参数的预测值是否达到产品失效阀值的上限或者下限;若是,则将所述产品性能参数的预测值对应的检测时间作为所述电子整机的预测寿命。The predicting step includes: taking the detection time in the first group of sample data in the verification sample as an input, and combining with the degradation data trend model to obtain the predicted value of the corresponding product performance parameter; judging the value of the product performance parameter. Whether the predicted value reaches the upper limit or lower limit of the product failure threshold; if so, the detection time corresponding to the predicted value of the product performance parameter is taken as the predicted life of the electronic complete machine. 8.根据权利要求7所述的装置,其特征在于,所述评估模块,还用于若判断获知所述产品性能参数的预测值未达到产品失效阀值的上限或者下限,则根据所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据对所述退化数据趋势模型进行更新;将所述验证样本中的第一组样本数据删除;重复执行所述预测步骤,直至获取所述电子整机的预测寿命。8. The device according to claim 7, wherein the evaluation module is further configured to determine that the predicted value of the product performance parameter does not reach the upper limit or the lower limit of the product failure threshold, according to the verification The first group of sample data in the sample updates the degradation data trend model; the first group of sample data in the verification sample is deleted; and the predicting step is repeatedly performed until the predicted life of the electronic complete machine is obtained.
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