CN105404775B - Method for determining reliability of pipeline containing corrosion defects - Google Patents
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- 230000007547 defect Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 131
- 230000007797 corrosion Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 100
- 238000005260 corrosion Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 100
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 51
- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 claims description 10
- 238000000342 Monte Carlo simulation Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 abstract description 4
- 238000005070 sampling Methods 0.000 abstract description 4
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 5
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 5
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 description 4
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 4
- 238000009826 distribution Methods 0.000 description 2
- 239000007789 gas Substances 0.000 description 2
- VNWKTOKETHGBQD-UHFFFAOYSA-N methane Chemical compound C VNWKTOKETHGBQD-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 2
- 229910000831 Steel Inorganic materials 0.000 description 1
- 230000004075 alteration Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000004323 axial length Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009172 bursting Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000001514 detection method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012854 evaluation process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000004880 explosion Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000007689 inspection Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000003345 natural gas Substances 0.000 description 1
- 239000010959 steel Substances 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for calculating the reliability of a pipeline with corrosion defects, which is simple in calculation, short in time consumption, high in precision and capable of well reflecting an actual result by sampling and simulating sample points and then calculating the failure probability of the defects and the reliability of the pipeline by using an interpolation method, and solves the technical problems that the working hour is high and the occupied memory is large when thousands of defects of the pipeline are actually processed by a technical method in the prior art.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of oil and gas pipelines, in particular to a method for determining the reliability of a pipeline with corrosion defects.
Background
The oil and gas pipeline is related to the national important economic life, and the safety problem is not negligible. In order to prevent the pipeline from being damaged, the performance of the pipeline needs to be evaluated according to different failure reasons and failure modes, and a basis is provided for making a maintenance plan. For the evaluation of the residual strength of a pipe body with defects, a deterministic evaluation criterion based on an internal detection result is mostly and directly adopted at home and abroad, but the method for deterministically has certain limitation because performance parameters, load parameters and the like of the pipe have uncertainty in the evaluation process, so that a reliability evaluation method based on probability statistics appears from the end of the last century.
For reliability evaluation of corroded pipelines, a model commonly used at present is a stress-intensity interference model, and a limit state equation Z ═ P can be usedf-P ═ 0, where P is expressedfRepresenting the tube bursting failure pressure, P representing the operating pressure, and the failure probability F of the defect is the probability that the state with Z less than or equal to 0 appears. Reliability R of a defecti＝1-FiIn the formula, FiIndicates the probability of failure, R, at the ith defectiIndicating the reliability at the ith defect. If a certain section of pipeline has n defects, the reliability of the section of pipeline is R ═ R1R2…Ri…Rn. For the stress-intensity interference model, the most common method for solving the failure probability of the pipe body at the defect is a Monte Carlo method, and the method has simple program structure and is easy to implementNow, the case of a random variable with a plurality of different probability distributions can be handled.
However, the method has a slow convergence rate, and if the calculation result meets a certain precision requirement, or for some defects with a small failure probability, a non-zero failure probability is to be obtained, enough simulation times (such as more than ten thousand times or million times) need to be ensured, so that when thousands of defects of a pipeline are actually processed, not only is the labor consumption large, but also the phenomenon of insufficient memory may occur even for a common electronic computer, and the method is inconvenient to use.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a method for determining the reliability of a pipeline with corrosion defects, which solves the technical problems that the technical method in the prior art not only consumes a large number of working hours, but also occupies a large memory when thousands of defects of the pipeline are actually processed.
The application provides a method for determining the reliability of a pipeline containing corrosion defects, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring the total number of actual corrosion defects on the pipeline and the length value and the depth value of each corrosion defect of the actual corrosion defects, and selecting the minimum length L from the length values and the depth valuesminMaximum length LmaxMinimum depth dminAnd a maximum depth dmax；
Section (L)max-Lmin) And (d)max-dmin) Dividing into n parts to obtain n length intervals (L)1-Lmin)、(L2-L1)…(Lmax-Ln-1) And n depth intervals (d)1-dmin)、(d2-d1)…(dmax-dn-1) N is an integer greater than or equal to 2;
counting whether the number of the corrosion defects in each length interval of the n length intervals exceeds 1/3 of the total number of the actual corrosion defects or not, if so, determining whether the number of the corrosion defects in each length interval of the n length intervals exceeds 1/3 of the total number of the actual corrosion defectsIf yes, then point L 'is introduced'iDividing the corresponding interval into two sections, counting whether the number of corrosion defects in each depth interval of the n depth intervals exceeds 1/3 of the total number of the actual corrosion defects, and if so, introducing a point d'iDividing a corresponding interval into two sections, wherein i is an integer which is more than or equal to 0 and less than n;
calculating L/(Rt) of the corrosion defect in each of the n length sections according to the length value of each actual corrosion defect1/2Value, L/(Rt) of half or more of the corrosion defects within a certain length interval1/2A value of between 1 and 3, then introducing point L'jDividing the corresponding interval into two sections; calculating the d/t value of the corrosion defect in each depth interval of the n depth intervals according to the depth value of each actual corrosion defect, and introducing a point d 'if the d/t value of more than half of the corrosion defects in a certain depth interval is between 0.4 and 0.8'jDividing the interval into two sections, wherein R is the outer radius of the pipeline, t is the wall thickness of the pipeline, and j is an integer which is more than or equal to 0 and less than n;
judging the introduction point L'iAnd said introduction point L'jIf so, obtaining the length introduction point L0、L1…L'i…LnIf not, obtaining a length introduction point L0、L1…L'i、L'j…LnJudging the introduction point d'iAnd the introduction point d'jIf yes, obtaining the depth introduction point d0、d1…d'i…dnIf not, obtaining a depth introduction point d0、d1…d'i、d'j…dnForming a matrix according to the length introduction points and the depth introduction points, wherein each point in the matrix is an interpolation point;
and calculating the failure probability of the interpolation point by adopting a Monte Carlo method, obtaining the failure probability of each corrosion defect by adopting an interpolation method according to the failure probability of the interpolation point and the length value and the depth value of each corrosion defect of the actual corrosion defects, and obtaining the reliability of the pipeline according to the failure probability of the corrosion defects.
Preferably, the interpolation method is specifically a cubic spline interpolation method.
Preferably, the obtaining the reliability of the pipeline according to the failure probability of the corrosion defect specifically includes:
reliability R of the k-th defectk＝1-FkWherein F iskIndicates the failure probability, R, at the k-th defectkRepresenting the reliability of the k-th defect, wherein the actual corrosion defect number of the pipeline is p, and the reliability R-R of the pipeline1R2…Rk…Rp。
Preferably, the interval (L) can bemax-Lmin) And (d)max-dmin) Divided into n equal parts.
Preferably, said n is equal to 5.
Preferably, the introduction point L'jDividing the corresponding interval into two equal segments, and leading in the point d'jThe interval is subdivided into two equal segments.
The beneficial effect of this application is as follows:
according to the method for determining the reliability of the pipeline with the corrosion defects, the sample points are sampled and simulated, and then the failure probability and the reliability of the actual defects are calculated by using an interpolation method.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for determining the reliability of a pipeline containing corrosion defects according to the preferred embodiment of the present application;
fig. 2 is a diagram of the reliability determination method interpolation point matrix in fig. 1.
Detailed Description
The embodiment of the application provides a method for determining the reliability of a pipeline with corrosion defects, and solves the technical problems that in the prior art, when thousands of defects of the pipeline are actually processed, the labor hour is consumed greatly, and the occupied memory is large.
In order to solve the technical problems in the prior art, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the application has the following general idea:
a method of determining the reliability of a pipe containing corrosion defects, the method of determining comprising:
acquiring the total number of actual corrosion defects on the pipeline and the length value and the depth value of each corrosion defect of the actual corrosion defects, and selecting the minimum length L from the length values and the depth valuesminMaximum length LmaxMinimum depth dminAnd a maximum depth dmax；
Section (L)max-Lmin) And (d)max-dmin) Dividing into n parts to obtain n length intervals (L)1-Lmin)、(L2-L1)…(Lmax-Ln-1) And n depth intervals (d)1-dmin)、(d2-d1)…(dmax-dn-1) N is an integer greater than or equal to 2;
counting the nWhether the number of corrosion defects in each length interval of the length intervals exceeds 1/3 of the total number of the actual corrosion defects or not, if yes, introducing a point L'iDividing the corresponding interval into two sections, counting whether the number of corrosion defects in each depth interval of the n depth intervals exceeds 1/3 of the total number of the actual corrosion defects, and if so, introducing a point d'iDividing a corresponding interval into two sections, wherein i is an integer which is more than or equal to 0 and less than n;
calculating L/(Rt) of the corrosion defect in each of the n length sections according to the length value of each actual corrosion defect1/2Value, L/(Rt) of half or more of the corrosion defects within a certain length interval1/2A value of between 1 and 3, then introducing point L'jDividing the corresponding interval into two sections; calculating the d/t value of the corrosion defect in each depth interval of the n depth intervals according to the depth value of each actual corrosion defect, and introducing a point d 'if the d/t value of more than half of the corrosion defects in a certain depth interval is between 0.4 and 0.8'jDividing the interval into two sections, wherein R is the outer radius of the pipeline, t is the wall thickness of the pipeline, and j is an integer which is more than or equal to 0 and less than n;
judging the introduction point L'iAnd said introduction point L'jIf so, obtaining the length introduction point L0、L1…L'i…LnIf not, obtaining a length introduction point L0、L1…L'i、L'j…LnJudging the introduction point d'iAnd the introduction point d'jIf yes, obtaining the depth introduction point d0、d1…d'i…dnIf not, obtaining a depth introduction point d0、d1…d'i、d'j…dnForming a matrix according to the length introduction points and the depth introduction points, wherein each point in the matrix is an interpolation point;
and calculating the failure probability of the interpolation point by adopting a Monte Carlo method, obtaining the failure probability of each corrosion defect by adopting an interpolation method according to the failure probability of the interpolation point and the length value and the depth value of each corrosion defect of the actual corrosion defects, and obtaining the reliability of the pipeline according to the failure probability of the corrosion defects.
According to the method for determining the reliability of the pipeline with the corrosion defects, the sample points are sampled and simulated, and then the failure probability and the reliability of the defects are calculated by using an interpolation method.
In order to better understand the technical solution, the technical solution will be described in detail with reference to the drawings and the specific embodiments.
In order to solve the technical problems that the technical method in the prior art is large in labor hour consumption and large in occupied memory, the application provides a method for determining the reliability of a pipeline with corrosion defects. As shown in fig. 1, the determining method includes:
step S11: acquiring the total number of actual corrosion defects on the pipeline and the length value and the depth value of each corrosion defect of the actual corrosion defects, and selecting the minimum length L from the length values and the depth valuesminMaximum length LmaxMinimum depth dminAnd a maximum depth dmax；
Step S12: section (L)max-Lmin) And (d)max-dmin) Dividing into n parts to obtain n length intervals (L)1-L0)、(L2-L1)…(Ln-Ln-1) And n depth intervals (d)1-d0)、(d2-d1)…(dn-1-dn) Wherein, said L0＝LminSaid L isn＝LmaxD is said0＝dminD is saidn＝dmaxAnd n is an integer greater than or equal to 2. Preferably, in particular implementations, the interval (L) may bemax-Lmin) And (d)max-dmin) Divided into n equal parts. In particular, said n is equal to 5.
Step S13: counting the number of corrosion defects in each length interval of the n length intervals, judging whether the number of the corrosion defects in each length interval exceeds 1/3 of the total number of the actual corrosion defects, and if so, introducing a point L'iDividing the corresponding interval into two sections;
counting the number of corrosion defects in each depth interval of the n depth intervals, judging whether the number of the corrosion defects in each depth interval exceeds 1/3 of the total number of the actual corrosion defects, and if so, introducing points d'iAnd dividing the corresponding interval into two sections, wherein i is an integer which is greater than or equal to 0 and less than n.
Step S14: calculating L/(Rt) of the corrosion defect in each of the n length sections according to the length value of each actual corrosion defect1/2Value, L/(Rt) of half or more of the corrosion defects within a certain length interval1/2A value of between 1 and 3, then introducing point L'jDividing the corresponding interval into two sections;
calculating the d/t value of the corrosion defect in each depth interval of the n depth intervals according to the depth value of each actual corrosion defect, and introducing a point d 'if the d/t value of more than half of the corrosion defects in a certain depth interval is between 0.4 and 0.8'jAnd dividing the interval into two sections, wherein R is the outer radius of the pipeline, and t is the wall thickness of the pipeline.
Step S15: judging the introduction point L'iAnd said introduction point L'jIf so, obtaining the length introduction point L0、L1…L'i…LnIf not, obtaining a length introduction point L0、L1…L'i、L'j…Ln；
Judging the lead-in point d'iAnd the introduction point d'jIf yes, obtaining the depth introduction point d0、d1…d'i…dnIf not, obtaining a depth introduction point d0、d1…d'i、d'j…dn；
And forming a matrix according to the length introduction points and the depth introduction points, wherein each point in the matrix is an interpolation point.
Step S16: and calculating the failure probability of the interpolation point by adopting a Monte Carlo method, obtaining the failure probability of each corrosion defect by adopting an interpolation method according to the failure probability of the interpolation point and the length value and the depth value of each corrosion defect of the actual corrosion defects, and obtaining the reliability of the pipeline according to the failure probability of the corrosion defects.
The interpolation method is specifically a cubic spline interpolation method, and the cubic spline interpolation method is simple in calculation, good in stability, guaranteed in convergence and easy to realize on an electronic computer.
Specifically, the obtaining the reliability of the pipeline according to the failure probability of the corrosion defect specifically includes:
reliability R of the k-th defectk＝1-FkWherein F iskIndicates the failure probability, R, at the k-th defectkRepresenting the reliability of the k-th defect, wherein the actual corrosion defect number of the pipeline is p, and the reliability R-R of the pipeline1R2…Rk…Rp。
Specifically, the introduction point L'jDividing the corresponding interval into two equal segments, and leading in the point d'jThe interval is subdivided into two equal segments.
The following are illustrated by way of example:
such as a 35.2km natural gas pipeline (wall thickness t 7mm, pipeline radius R)213mm), the internal inspection report shows that the section of the pipeline has 3923 corrosion defects in total, and the minimum and maximum values of the axial length L and the depth d of all the defects are L respectivelymin＝5mm、Lmax＝934mm、dmin＝1％t、dmax＝55％t。
Analyzing the corrosion defect data, firstly, taking the minimum and maximum values L of all the actual defect lengths L and depths dmin＝5mm、Lmax＝934mm、dmin＝1％t、dmax55% t, and intervals (L)max-Lmin) And (d)max-dmin)5 equal parts (i.e., n-5) to obtain distribution points L0＝Lmin＝5mm、L1＝191mm、L2＝377mm、L3＝563mm、L4＝749mm、L5＝Lmax934mm and d0＝dmin＝1％t、d1＝12％t、d2＝23％t、d3＝34％t、d4＝45％t、d5＝dmax＝55％t。
And counting the number of defects in each length and depth interval. Will (L)max-Lmin) Divided into 5 length intervals (L)1-L0)、(L2-L1)、(L3-L2)、(L4-L3)、(L5-L4) Contains 3841, 71, 8, 2 and 1 defects respectively, wherein (L)1-L0) Point L 'is introduced if the number of defects in the zone exceeds 1/3(1307) of the total number of defects in the duct'0Will (L)1-L0) The interval is divided into two sections; will (d)max-dmin) Divided 5 defect depth intervals (d)1-d0)、(d2-d1)、(d3-d2)、(d4-d3)、(d5-d4) Respectively containing 2768, 1026, 109, 14 and 6 defects, wherein (d)1-d0) Point d 'is introduced when the number of defects in the interval also exceeds 1/3 of the total number of pipeline defects'0The interval is subdivided into two sections.
Using the size of the corrosion defect (Length and depth), calculating the actual L/(Rt) of each defect1/2And d/t, wherein R is the outer radius of the pipe, and t is the wall thickness of the pipe. (L)max-Lmin) Divided into 5 length intervals (L)1-L0)、(L2-L1)、(L3-L2)、(L4-L3)、(L5-L4) Internal defect L/(Rt)1/2The number of values between 1 and 3 is 895, 0 and 0 respectively, and the values are less than half of the total number of defects in each interval, so that the introduction of points L 'is not needed'i；(dmax-dmin) Divided 5 depth intervals (d)1-d0)、(d2-d1)、(d3-d2)、(d4-d3)、(d5-d4) The number of internal defects with d/t value between 0.4-0.8 is respectively 0, 1 and 6, wherein (d)5-d4) More than half of all defects in the interval exceed 0.4-0.8, then introducing points d'4The interval is subdivided into two segments, thus obtaining a matrix as shown in FIG. 2, in which each L isx,dy(containing L)x,d'y、L'x,dy) The point is an interpolation point.
And calculating the 56 interpolation point sample values obtained above, and calculating the failure probability of each interpolation point by adopting a Monte Carlo method.
The specific calculation process of the Monte Carlo method is as follows:
establishing a limit state equation Z ═ Pf-P ═ 0, where P isfRepresenting the failure pressure of the pipe explosion, and P representing the operating pressure, the invention selects a method of RSTREN 0.85dL in ASME B31G-2012 to solve the Pf。
Wherein,
SMYS: nominal minimum yield strength [ MPa ] of pipe steel
t: pipe wall thickness [ mm ]
d: depth of corrosion defect [ mm ]
D: pipe external diameter [ mm ]
M: bulging Factor (Folias Factor) [ dimensionless ]
For the
For the
After the failure probability of each interpolation point is calculated, the failure probability of the actual defect position is calculated according to the failure probability of each interpolation point, and the failure probability of each defect position is calculated by a cubic spline interpolation method by specifically utilizing the actual sizes of all corrosion defects on the pipeline.
Finally, the reliability of the whole section of pipeline is calculated, and the reliability R of each defect can be obtained by utilizing the failure probability of each defectk＝1-FkIn the formula, FkIndicates the failure probability, R, at the k-th defectkRepresenting the reliability of the k-th defect, the reliability R-R of the section of the pipeline1R2…Rk…R3923。
According to the method for determining the reliability of the pipeline with the corrosion defects, the sample points are sampled and simulated, and then the failure probability and the reliability of the defects are calculated by using an interpolation method.
If the Monte Carlo method is adopted to carry out sampling simulation on 3923 corrosion defects for 5 ten thousand times respectively, the sampling simulation is about 4.5 hours (eight-core CPU) is used, and a blue screen appears when the results are stored; by adopting the method, sampling simulation is carried out on 56 sample points for 10 ten thousand times, the time consumption is about 1 hour, the time consumed for solving the 3923 defect failure probability (and the reliability) by a subsequent interpolation method is only a few minutes, the time consumption is greatly reduced, and the higher precision is ensured.
While preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described, additional variations and modifications in those embodiments may occur to those skilled in the art once they learn of the basic inventive concepts. Therefore, it is intended that the appended claims be interpreted as including preferred embodiments and all such alterations and modifications as fall within the scope of the invention.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made in the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Thus, if such modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is also intended to include such modifications and variations.
Claims (6)
1. A method for determining the reliability of a pipe having corrosion defects, the method comprising:
acquiring the total number of actual corrosion defects on the pipeline and the length value and the depth value of each corrosion defect of the actual corrosion defects, and selecting the minimum length L from the length values and the depth valuesminMaximum length LmaxMinimum depth dminAnd a maximum depth dmax；
Section (L)max-Lmin) And (d)max-dmin) PartitioningFor n parts, n length intervals (L) are obtained1-Lmin)、(L2-L1)…(Lmax-Ln-1) And n depth intervals (d)1-dmin)、(d2-d1)…(dmax-dn-1) N is an integer greater than or equal to 2;
counting whether the number of corrosion defects in each length interval of the n length intervals exceeds 1/3 of the total number of the actual corrosion defects, if so, introducing a point L'iDividing the corresponding interval into two sections, counting whether the number of corrosion defects in each depth interval of the n depth intervals exceeds 1/3 of the total number of the actual corrosion defects, and if so, introducing a point d'iDividing a corresponding interval into two sections, wherein i is an integer which is more than or equal to 0 and less than n;
calculating L/(Rt) of the corrosion defect in each of the n length sections according to the length value of each actual corrosion defect1/2The value L is the length of the corrosion defect, and if more than half of the length of the corrosion defect in a certain length interval is L/(Rt)1/2A value of between 1 and 3, then introducing point L'jDividing the corresponding interval into two sections; according to the depth value of each actual corrosion defect, calculating the d/t value of the corrosion defect in each depth interval of the n depth intervals, wherein d is the depth of the corrosion defect, and if the d/t value of more than half of the corrosion defects in a certain depth interval is between 0.4 and 0.8, introducing a point d'jDividing the interval into two sections, wherein R is the outer radius of the pipeline, t is the wall thickness of the pipeline, and j is an integer which is more than or equal to 0 and less than n;
judging the introduction point L'iAnd said introduction point L'jIf so, obtaining the length introduction point L0、L1…L'i…LnIf not, obtaining a length introduction point L0、L1…L'i、L'j…LnJudging the introduction point d'iAnd the introduction point d'jIf yes, obtaining the depth introduction point d0、d1…d'i…dnIf not, obtaining depth guideEntering point d0、d1…d'i、d'j…dnForming a matrix according to the length introduction points and the depth introduction points, wherein each point in the matrix is an interpolation point;
and calculating the failure probability of the interpolation point by adopting a Monte Carlo method, obtaining the failure probability of each corrosion defect by adopting an interpolation method according to the failure probability of the interpolation point and the length value and the depth value of each corrosion defect of the actual corrosion defects, and obtaining the reliability of the pipeline according to the failure probability of the corrosion defects.
2. The determination method according to claim 1, characterized in that the interpolation method is in particular a cubic spline interpolation method.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein said obtaining a reliability of said pipe based on a probability of failure of said corrosion defect comprises:
reliability R at k-th defectk＝1-FkWherein F iskIndicates the failure probability, R, at the k-th defectkRepresenting the reliability of the k-th defect, wherein the actual corrosion defect number of the pipeline is p, and the reliability R-R of the pipeline1R2…Rk…Rp。
4. Method for determining according to claim 1, characterized in that the interval (L) is defined by a number of intervalsmax-Lmin) And (d)max-dmin) Divided into n equal parts.
5. The determination method of claim 1, wherein n is equal to 5.
6. The method of determining of claim 1, wherein said point of introduction L'jDividing the corresponding interval into two equal segments, and leading in the point d'jWill be provided withThe interval is subdivided into two equal segments.
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