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CN104200060A - Model and method for predicting probability of post-operation recent relapse and metastasis of giant liver caner of a patient - Google Patents

Model and method for predicting probability of post-operation recent relapse and metastasis of giant liver caner of a patient Download PDF

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CN104200060A
CN104200060A CN201410368338.2A CN201410368338A CN104200060A CN 104200060 A CN104200060 A CN 104200060A CN 201410368338 A CN201410368338 A CN 201410368338A CN 104200060 A CN104200060 A CN 104200060A
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metastasis
recurrence
liver cancer
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probability
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刘景丰
黄爱民
刘小龙
林承杰
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FUZHOU HOSPITAL FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE
First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University
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First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University
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Abstract

本发明涉及一种预测巨大肝癌患者术后近期复发转移概率的数学模型及方法。所述数学模型为:P=1/(1+Y),P为巨大肝癌患者术后近期复发转移概率,且P为6个月内的复发转移概率时:Y=exp(4.092+2.073*X12-2.719*X14-2.58*X17+3.039*X19);P为6~12个月的复发转移概率时,Y=e xp(2.528+1.633*X8+0.971*X12-1.517*X17)。本发明的有益效果主要体现在:从多因素、多蛋白综合分析巨大肝癌近期复发转移相关的多个指标,并通过预测模型达到预测术后近期复发转移的效果,对临床实践及治疗方案个体化选择具有重大意义。The invention relates to a mathematical model and a method for predicting the short-term recurrence and metastasis probability of patients with huge liver cancer after operation. The mathematical model is: P=1/(1+Y), P is the probability of recurrence and metastasis in patients with huge liver cancer after surgery, and when P is the probability of recurrence and metastasis within 6 months: Y=exp(4.092+2.073*X12 -2.719*X14-2.58*X17+3.039*X19); when P is the probability of recurrence and metastasis within 6 to 12 months, Y=exp(2.528+1.633*X8+0.971*X12-1.517*X17). The beneficial effects of the present invention are mainly reflected in: comprehensively analyzing multiple indicators related to the recent recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer from multiple factors and multiple proteins, and achieving the effect of predicting the short-term recurrence and metastasis after surgery through the prediction model, and individualizing the clinical practice and treatment plan Choices matter.

Description

预测巨大肝癌患者术后近期复发转移概率的模型及方法Model and method for predicting the probability of short-term recurrence and metastasis in patients with huge liver cancer

(一)技术领域(1) Technical field

本发明涉及一种用于预测巨大肝癌患者术后近期复发转移概率的数学模型及方法。The invention relates to a mathematical model and method for predicting the short-term recurrence and metastasis probability of patients with huge liver cancer after operation.

(二)背景技术(2) Background technology

肝细胞癌位居全球恶性肿瘤发病率第5位,死亡率居全球恶性肿瘤死因的第3位(Jemal A,Siegel R,Ward E,et al.Cancer statistics,2008.CancerJ Clin,2008;58:71-96),我国是肝癌大国,每年大约有45万的肝癌新发病例,并已成为癌症导致患者死亡的第2位杀手(张伟东,苗国军;我国恶性肿瘤死亡率流行病学特征分析;中国健康教育,2009,25:246-248),尤其是巨大肝癌。Hepatocellular carcinoma ranks fifth in the incidence of malignant tumors in the world, and its mortality rate ranks third in the cause of death of malignant tumors in the world (Jemal A, Siegel R, Ward E, et al. Cancer statistics, 2008. CancerJ Clin, 2008; 58: 71-96), my country is a big country with liver cancer, and there are about 450,000 new cases of liver cancer every year, and it has become the second killer of cancer patients (Zhang Weidong, Miao Guojun; Analysis of epidemiological characteristics of malignant tumor mortality in my country ; China Health Education, 2009, 25:246-248), especially giant liver cancer.

巨大肝癌指的是直径大于10cm的肝癌亚型。目前手术切除治疗是巨大肝癌患者的首选方案,但术后易转移复发、预后差是巨大肝癌治疗效果差且致死率高的主要原因。统计数据表明,巨大肝癌术后5年之内复发的概率达到70%。研究表明,巨大肝癌术后复发转移最早可在术后2个月以内;术后1~2年为复发转移的高发期。Shimul等报道56例巨大肝癌根治术后复发病人,1年内复发21例(38%),1年后复发31例(55%);并发现复发后生存率与复发时间密切相关:术后1年内复发者3年生存率显著低于1年后复发者(参考文献:Shimul A Shah,Paul D Greig,StevenGallinger,et al.Factors associated with early recurrence after resection forhepatocellular carcinoa and outcomes.J Am Coll Surg,2005,10(5):275-283.)。Hayashi等观察了肝癌术后复发时间与预后间的关系,1年内复发患者1、3、5年生存率分别为75.7%、36.6%和28.3%,远低于2年后复发的生存率(1、3、5年生存率分别为100%、92.2%和68.6%)(参考文献:Hayashi M,Shimizu T,Hirokawa F,et al.Clinicopathological riskfactors for recurrence with one year after initial hepatectomy forhepatocellular carcinoma.J Am Surg,2011,77(5):572-578.)。可见肝癌术后1年内复发的比例较高,且对生存率有明显影响。但复发转移的机制还没有被明确阐明使临床缺少巨大肝癌预后判断指标和相应的治疗手段。Huge HCC refers to a subtype of HCC with a diameter greater than 10 cm. Surgical resection is currently the first choice for patients with giant liver cancer, but postoperative metastasis and recurrence and poor prognosis are the main reasons for the poor treatment effect and high mortality rate of giant liver cancer. Statistics show that the probability of recurrence of giant liver cancer within 5 years after surgery reaches 70%. Studies have shown that the earliest postoperative recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer can be within 2 months after surgery; 1 to 2 years after surgery is the high incidence period of recurrence and metastasis. Shimul et al. reported 56 patients with recurrence after radical resection of huge liver cancer, 21 cases (38%) relapsed within 1 year, and 31 cases (55%) relapsed after 1 year; and found that the survival rate after recurrence was closely related to the recurrence time: within 1 year after operation The 3-year survival rate of relapse patients was significantly lower than that of relapse patients after 1 year (reference: Shimul A Shah, Paul D Greig, Steven Gallinger, et al. Factors associated with early recurrence after resection for hepatocellular carcinoma and outcomes. J Am Coll Surg, 2005, 10(5):275-283.). Hayashi et al. observed the relationship between postoperative recurrence time and prognosis of liver cancer. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of patients with recurrence within 1 year were 75.7%, 36.6%, and 28.3%, respectively, far lower than the survival rate of recurrence after 2 years (1 , 3, and 5-year survival rates were 100%, 92.2%, and 68.6%, respectively) (references: Hayashi M, Shimizu T, Hirokawa F, et al. Clinicopathological risk factors for recurrence with one year after initial hepatitis for hepatocellular carcinoma. J Am Surg , 2011, 77(5):572-578.). It can be seen that the recurrence rate of liver cancer within 1 year after operation is relatively high, and it has a significant impact on the survival rate. However, the mechanism of recurrence and metastasis has not been clearly elucidated, so there is a lack of prognostic indicators and corresponding treatment methods for giant liver cancer.

目前,有关巨大肝癌术后复发转移的相关因素分析比较多,但多数以单因素进行,这虽然在一定程度上给出了相对准确的判定,但仍属局限、片面;而肝癌术后复发是一个多因素的复杂的病理过程,在此过程中,蛋白分子特征决定了肝癌的生物学行为,迄今为止,尚未有相关文献报道巨块型肝癌术后近期复发转移的多因素、多蛋白的数学预测模型,若能从多因素、多蛋白综合分析肝癌复发转移相关的多个指标,建立巨大肝癌复发转移的数学预测模型,为临床个体化治疗、预测术后疗效提供理论和实验依据。At present, there are many analyzes related to the factors related to postoperative recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer, but most of them are based on single factor. Although this provides a relatively accurate judgment to a certain extent, it is still limited and one-sided. A multifactorial and complex pathological process, in which the molecular characteristics of proteins determine the biological behavior of liver cancer. So far, there is no relevant literature reporting the multifactorial and multiprotein mathematical factors of the recent recurrence and metastasis of massive liver cancer. For the prediction model, if multiple indicators related to the recurrence and metastasis of liver cancer can be comprehensively analyzed from multiple factors and proteins, a mathematical prediction model for the recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer can be established, which can provide theoretical and experimental basis for individualized clinical treatment and prediction of postoperative efficacy.

(三)发明内容(3) Contents of the invention

本发明目的是提供一种预测巨大肝癌患者术后近期复发转移概率的数学模型及方法。The purpose of the present invention is to provide a mathematical model and method for predicting the short-term recurrence and metastasis probability of patients with huge liver cancer after surgery.

本发明采用的技术方案是:The technical scheme adopted in the present invention is:

一种用于预测巨大肝癌患者术后复发转移概率的数学模型P=1/(1+Y),P为巨大肝癌患者术后近期复发转移概率,且P为6个月内的复发转移概率时:Y=exp(4.092+2.073*X12-2.719*X14-2.58*X17+3.039*X19);P为6~12个月的复发转移概率时,Y=e xp(2.528+1.633*X8+0.971*X12-1.517*X17);其中X8为术中癌栓,若有术中癌栓则X8=1、若无则X8=0;X12为肿瘤分级,肿瘤分级为I级时X12=1、II-III级时X12=2、IV级时X12=3;X14为IQGAP-2蛋白免疫组化表达情况,高表达时X14=2、低表达时X14=1;X17为S100A12蛋白免疫组化表达情况,高表达时X17=2、低表达时X17=1;X19为APOA2蛋白免疫组化表达情况,高表达时X19=2、低表达时X19=1。A mathematical model for predicting the probability of postoperative recurrence and metastasis in patients with huge liver cancer P=1/(1+Y), P is the probability of recurrence and metastasis in the short term after surgery in patients with huge liver cancer, and P is the probability of recurrence and metastasis within 6 months : Y=exp(4.092+2.073*X12-2.719*X14-2.58*X17+3.039*X19); when P is the probability of recurrence and metastasis in 6-12 months, Y=e xp(2.528+1.633*X8+0.971* X12-1.517*X17); where X8 is intraoperative tumor thrombus, if there is intraoperative tumor thrombus, X8=1, if there is no intraoperative tumor thrombus, then X8=0; X12 is tumor grade, when the tumor grade is grade I, X12=1, II- X12=2 for grade III and X12=3 for grade IV; X14 is the immunohistochemical expression of IQGAP-2 protein, X14=2 for high expression and X14=1 for low expression; X17 is the immunohistochemical expression of S100A12 protein, X17=2 for high expression and X17=1 for low expression; X19 is the immunohistochemical expression of APOA2 protein, X19=2 for high expression and X19=1 for low expression.

本发明人通过收集巨块型肝癌根治性切除术的标本,采用病例对照研究方法,所有病例手术切除前未经任何放疗和化疗,并通过病理证实为肝细胞肝癌。根据6个月内复发组(A组)及6~12个月复发组(B组)为实验组,12个月内未复发组作为对照组,对其临床病理因素进行单因素、多因素分析(各因素统计变量赋值见下表),筛选出影响巨块型肝癌术后近期复发转移的独立危险因素。结合通过蛋白组学筛选出复发转移相关的差异蛋白,通过免疫组织化学检测蛋白的相对表达量,通过多因素logistic回归分析,得出一个预测巨块型肝癌术后近期复发转移的数学方程,通过回代性分析判断该方程的灵敏度、准确度、特异性,判断该方程能够预测巨块型肝癌术后近期复发转移。The inventor collected the specimens of massive liver cancer undergoing radical resection, and adopted a case-control study method. All the cases had not received any radiotherapy and chemotherapy before surgical resection, and were confirmed as hepatocellular carcinoma by pathology. According to the recurrence group within 6 months (group A) and the recurrence group within 6-12 months (group B) as the experimental group, and the non-relapse group within 12 months as the control group, the clinicopathological factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate factors (See the table below for the statistical variable assignment of each factor), and screen out the independent risk factors affecting the short-term recurrence and metastasis of massive liver cancer. Combined with the screening of differential proteins related to recurrence and metastasis through proteomics, the relative expression of proteins was detected by immunohistochemistry, and multi-factor logistic regression analysis was used to obtain a mathematical equation for predicting the recurrence and metastasis of massive liver cancer in the near future. The sensitivity, accuracy, and specificity of the equation were judged by retrospective analysis, and it was judged that the equation could predict the short-term recurrence and metastasis of massive liver cancer after surgery.

各因素的统计变量赋值Statistical variable assignment for each factor

发明人在研究中发现肿瘤分级、IQGAP-2、S100A12、APOA2是巨大肝癌6个月内复发转移的独立危险因素。肿瘤级别越高、IQGAP-2、S100A12、APOA2表达异常均可增加术后6个月内复发转移的风险,并通过建立的多因素、多蛋白数学预测模型,可得出相应的术后复发转移的发生概率。对6~12个月巨大肝癌术后组分析中发现,术中癌栓、肿瘤分级、S100A12是巨大肝癌6~12个月内复发转移的独立危险因素。有术中癌栓、肿瘤分级越高及S100A12表达异常均可增加术后6~12个月内复发转移的风险。由此通过建立的多因素、多蛋白数学预测模型,可得出相应的术后复发转移的发生概率。In the study, the inventors found that tumor grade, IQGAP-2, S100A12, and APOA2 are independent risk factors for the recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer within 6 months. The higher the tumor grade, the abnormal expression of IQGAP-2, S100A12, and APOA2 can increase the risk of recurrence and metastasis within 6 months after operation, and the corresponding postoperative recurrence and metastasis can be obtained through the established multi-factor and multi-protein mathematical prediction model probability of occurrence. In the analysis of the postoperative group of giant liver cancer within 6 to 12 months, it was found that intraoperative tumor thrombus, tumor grade, and S100A12 were independent risk factors for recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer within 6 to 12 months. Intraoperative tumor thrombi, higher tumor grades, and abnormal expression of S100A12 can all increase the risk of recurrence and metastasis within 6 to 12 months after surgery. Therefore, through the established multi-factor and multi-protein mathematical prediction model, the corresponding probability of postoperative recurrence and metastasis can be obtained.

本发明还涉及一种预测巨大肝癌患者术后近期复发转移概率的方法,所述方法包括:The present invention also relates to a method for predicting the probability of postoperative recurrence and metastasis in patients with huge liver cancer, the method comprising:

(1)取巨大肝癌患者活检组织或术中、术后的病理取材作为病理标本,并对病理标本的术中癌栓、肿瘤分级情况进行记录分析;(1) Take biopsy tissue or intraoperative and postoperative pathological materials from patients with huge liver cancer as pathological specimens, and record and analyze intraoperative tumor thrombi and tumor grading of pathological specimens;

(2)采用SP染色法,分别获得病理标本IQGAP-2蛋白的免疫组化评分、S100A12蛋白的免疫组化评分和APOA12蛋白的免疫组化评分(以染色强度和阳性细胞率的得分之和作为判断标准(ShimizuM,SaitonY,Itoh H.Immunohistochemical staining of H-rasoncogene product in normal,benign and malignant humanpancreatic tissues.Hum Pathol,1990,21(6):607-612.):根据染色强度分为四级,细胞无染色记0分,弱染色(浅黄色)记1分,中等染色(棕黄色)记2分,强染色(棕褐色)记3分;根据阳性细胞率也分为四级,0≤阳性细胞率≤5%记为0分,5%<阳性细胞率≤25%记为1分,25%<阳性细胞率≤50%记为2分,阳性细胞率>50%记为3分。上述两项积分相加,0分为阴性(-),1~2分为弱阳性(+),3~4分为中等阳性(++),5~6分为强阳性(+++)。将阴性(—)和弱阳性(+)定义为低表达,中等阳性(++)和强阳性(+++)则为高表达。)(2) Using SP staining method, the immunohistochemical scores of IQGAP-2 protein, S100A12 protein and APOA12 protein of pathological specimens were respectively obtained (the sum of staining intensity and positive cell rate was taken as Judgment criteria (ShimizuM, SaitonY, Itoh H. Immunohistochemical staining of H-rasoncogene product in normal, benign and malignant human pancreatic tissues. Hum Pathol, 1990, 21(6):607-612.): divided into four grades according to the staining intensity, No staining of cells is scored as 0 points, weak staining (light yellow) is scored as 1 point, moderate staining (brownish yellow) is scored as 2 points, and strong staining (tan) is scored as 3 points; according to the positive cell rate, it is also divided into four grades, 0≤positive 0 points for cell rate ≤ 5%, 1 point for 5% < positive cell rate ≤ 25%, 2 points for 25% < positive cell rate ≤ 50%, 3 points for positive cell rate > 50%. Adding the two points, 0 is negative (-), 1-2 is weakly positive (+), 3-4 is moderately positive (++), and 5-6 is strongly positive (+++). Negative (—) and weak positive (+) were defined as low expression, moderate positive (++) and strong positive (+++) were high expression.)

(3)将上述取值分别代入6个月内的复发转移概率数学模型P=1/(1+Y),Y=exp(4.092+2.073*X12-2.719*X14-2.58*X17+3.039*X19);和6~12个月的复发转移概率数学模型P=1/(1+Y),Y=e xp(2.528+1.633*X8+0.971*X12-1.517*X17),分别进行计算获得6个月内和6~12个月的复发转移概率;其中X8为术中癌栓,若有则X8=1、若无则X8=0;X12为肿瘤分级,I级时X12=1、II-III级时X12=2、IV级时X12=3;X14为IQGAP-2蛋白免疫组化表达情况,高表达时X14=2、低表达时X14=1;X17为S100A12蛋白免疫组化表达情况,高表达时X17=2、低表达时X17=1;X19为APOA2蛋白免疫组化表达情况,高表达时X19=2、低表达时X19=1。(3) Substitute the above values into the mathematical model of recurrence and transfer probability within 6 months P=1/(1+Y), Y=exp(4.092+2.073*X12-2.719*X14-2.58*X17+3.039*X19 ); and the mathematical model of recurrence and transfer probability of 6 to 12 months P=1/(1+Y), Y=exp(2.528+1.633*X8+0.971*X12-1.517*X17), respectively calculated to obtain 6 Probability of recurrence and metastasis within one month and 6 to 12 months; where X8 is intraoperative tumor thrombus, if there is X8=1, if not, then X8=0; X12 is tumor grade, X12=1 for grade I, II-III X12=2 for grade IV, X12=3 for grade IV; X14 is the immunohistochemical expression of IQGAP-2 protein, X14=2 for high expression, X14=1 for low expression; X17 is the immunohistochemical expression of S100A12 protein, high X17=2 when expressed and X17=1 when low expressed; X19 is the immunohistochemical expression of APOA2 protein, X19=2 when high expressed and X19=1 when low expressed.

本发明中涉及的免疫组化SP染色法检测蛋白的步骤如下(IQGAP-2蛋白、S100A12蛋白和APOA12蛋白分别按如下步骤进行):The steps of the immunohistochemical SP staining method involved in the present invention to detect protein are as follows (IQGAP-2 protein, S100A12 protein and APOA12 protein are carried out according to the following steps respectively):

i.取病理标本制备肝癌组织石蜡切片,60℃烤箱过夜。i. Take pathological specimens to prepare paraffin sections of liver cancer tissues, and put them in an oven at 60°C overnight.

ii.切片脱腊。依次浸泡:二甲苯I:10min;二甲苯II:10min;二甲苯III:10min。ii. Slices are dewaxed. Soak in sequence: Xylene I: 10min; Xylene II: 10min; Xylene III: 10min.

iii.切片水化。依次浸泡:无水乙醇:3min;90%(v/v)乙醇:3min;80%乙醇:3min;75%乙醇:3min。iii. Slice hydration. Soak in sequence: absolute ethanol: 3min; 90% (v/v) ethanol: 3min; 80% ethanol: 3min; 75% ethanol: 3min.

iv.PBS清洗3次,每次5min。iv. Wash with PBS 3 times, 5min each time.

v.EDTA抗原高压修复:切片放入0.01M EDTA修复液浸泡,沸水浴5min,冷却至室温。PBS清洗3次,每次5min。v. EDTA antigen high-pressure repair: soak the slices in 0.01M EDTA repair solution, soak in boiling water for 5 minutes, and cool to room temperature. Wash 3 times with PBS, 5min each time.

vi.加入300μL的3%(w/w)过氧化氢水溶液,37℃10min。PBS清洗3次,每次5min。vi. Add 300 μL of 3% (w/w) hydrogen peroxide aqueous solution, 37° C. for 10 min. Wash 3 times with PBS, 5min each time.

vii.加入300μL的3%(w/w)BSA封闭液(PBS配制),37℃1h。PBS清洗3次,每次5min。vii. Add 300 μL of 3% (w/w) BSA blocking solution (prepared in PBS), and keep at 37° C. for 1 hour. Wash 3 times with PBS, 5min each time.

viii.加入相应蛋白的一抗,各抗体浓度如下:IQGAP-2蛋白抗体浓度为1:300,S100A12蛋白的抗体浓度为1:50,APOA2蛋白抗体浓度为1:300;4℃冰箱放置16h后取出,室温复温15min,然后PBS洗4次,每次5min。viii. Add the primary antibody of the corresponding protein, the concentration of each antibody is as follows: IQGAP-2 protein antibody concentration is 1:300, S100A12 protein antibody concentration is 1:50, APOA2 protein antibody concentration is 1:300; Take it out, rewarm at room temperature for 15 minutes, and then wash with PBS 4 times, 5 minutes each time.

ix.滴加二抗,所述的二抗为辣根过氧化物酶标记的相应二抗(购自福州迈新试剂公司,即用型,无需稀释),37℃45min。PBS洗4次,每次5min。ix. Add the secondary antibody dropwise, which is the corresponding secondary antibody labeled with horseradish peroxidase (purchased from Fuzhou Maixin Reagent Co., Ltd., ready-to-use, without dilution), at 37° C. for 45 minutes. Wash 4 times with PBS, 5min each time.

x.PBS洗3次,每次5min。DAB(DAB显色试剂盒,购自上海生工)显色2~10min,镜下观察;双蒸水洗止显色,苏木素复染10s,用自来水冲洗浸泡。x. Wash 3 times with PBS, 5min each time. DAB (DAB Chromogenic Kit, purchased from Shanghai Sangong) developed color for 2-10 minutes, observed under a microscope; washed with double distilled water to stop color development, counterstained with hematoxylin for 10 seconds, rinsed and soaked in tap water.

xi.脱水。依次浸泡:75%乙醇:2min;80%乙醇:2min;90%乙醇:2min;无水乙醇:2min。xi. Dehydration. Soak in sequence: 75% ethanol: 2min; 80% ethanol: 2min; 90% ethanol: 2min; absolute ethanol: 2min.

xii.用电吹风吹干,加入中性树胶,盖玻片覆盖。xii. Blow dry with a hair dryer, add neutral gum, and cover with a cover glass.

xiii.有两位病理科医师采用双盲法阅片,有分歧的切片通过讨论后确定,现在低倍镜(×40倍)下观察整张组织芯片各指标阳性表达情况,然后在高倍视野(×200倍)下计数阳性细胞数,每例标本以2或3个点阵取平均值作为该例标本的分值。xiii. Two pathologists used the double-blind method to read the slices, and the slices with differences were determined after discussion. Now observe the positive expression of each index in the whole tissue microarray under the low power lens (×40 times), and then in the high power field ( ×200 times) to count the number of positive cells, and take the average value of 2 or 3 lattices for each sample as the score of the sample.

以染色强度和阳性细胞率的得分之和作为判断标准(Shimizu M,SaitonY,Itoh H.Immunohistochemical staining of H-ras oncogene product innormal,benign and malignant human pancreatic tissues.HumPathol,1990,21(6):607-612.):根据染色强度分为四级,细胞无染色记0分,弱染色(浅黄色)记1分,中等染色(棕黄色)记2分,强染色(棕褐色)记3分;根据阳性细胞率也分为四级,0≤阳性细胞率≤5%记为0分,5%<阳性细胞率≤25%记为1分,25%<阳性细胞率≤50%记为2分,阳性细胞率>50%记为3分。上述两项积分相加,0分为阴性(-),1~2分为弱阳性(+),3~4分为中等阳性(++),5~6分为强阳性(+++)。将阴性(—)和弱阳性(+)定义为低表达,中等阳性(++)和强阳性(+++)则为高表达。The sum of staining intensity and positive cell rate is used as the judgment standard (Shimizu M, Saiton Y, Itoh H. Immunohistochemical staining of H-ras oncogene product abnormal, benign and malignant human pancreatic tissues. HumPathol, 1990, 21 (6): 607 -612.): Divided into four grades according to the staining intensity, 0 points for no staining, 1 point for weak staining (light yellow), 2 points for moderate staining (brownish yellow), 3 points for strong staining (tan); According to the positive cell rate, it is also divided into four grades, 0 ≤ positive cell rate ≤ 5% is scored as 0 points, 5% < positive cell rate ≤ 25% is scored as 1 point, 25% < positive cell rate ≤ 50% is scored as 2 points , the positive cell rate > 50% was recorded as 3 points. The above two points are added together, 0 is negative (-), 1-2 is weakly positive (+), 3-4 is moderately positive (++), 5-6 is strongly positive (+++) . Negative (—) and weak positive (+) were defined as low expression, moderate positive (++) and strong positive (+++) were high expression.

本发明的有益效果主要体现在:从多因素、多蛋白综合分析巨大肝癌近期复发转移相关的多个指标,并通过预测模型达到预测术后近期复发转移的效果,对临床实践及治疗方案个体化选择具有重大意义。The beneficial effects of the present invention are mainly reflected in: comprehensively analyzing multiple indicators related to the recent recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer from multiple factors and multiple proteins, and achieving the effect of predicting the short-term recurrence and metastasis after surgery through the prediction model, and individualizing the clinical practice and treatment plan Choices matter.

(四)具体实施方式(4) Specific implementation methods

下面结合具体实施例对本发明进行进一步描述,但本发明的保护范围并不仅限于此:The present invention is further described below in conjunction with specific embodiment, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto:

实施例1:Example 1:

收集巨块型肝癌根治性切除术的标本,采用病例对照研究方法,所有病例手术切除前未经任何放疗和化疗,并通过病理证实为肝细胞肝癌。根据6个月内及6-12个月内有无复发分成实验组及对照组,对其临床病理因素进行单因素、多因素分析(参见表1~4),筛选出影响巨块型肝癌术后近期复发转移的独立危险因素。The specimens of massive hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radical resection were collected, and the method of case-control study was adopted. All cases had not received any radiotherapy and chemotherapy before surgical resection, and were confirmed as hepatocellular carcinoma by pathology. According to whether there is recurrence within 6 months or within 6-12 months, they are divided into experimental group and control group, and the clinicopathological factors are analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis (see Tables 1-4), and the patients with massive liver cancer are screened out. Independent risk factors for recent recurrence and metastasis.

结合通过蛋白组学筛选出复发转移相关的差异蛋白,通过免疫组织化学检测蛋白的相对表达量(参见表5~6),通过多因素logistic回归分析(参见表7~8),得出一个预测巨块型肝癌术后近期复发转移的数学方程,通过回代性分析判断该方程的灵敏度、准确度、特异性(表9~10),判断该方程能够预测巨块型肝癌术后近期复发转移。Combined with the screening of differential proteins related to recurrence and metastasis through proteomics, the relative expression of proteins was detected by immunohistochemistry (see Tables 5-6), and a prediction was obtained through multivariate logistic regression analysis (see Tables 7-8). Mathematical equation for the short-term recurrence and metastasis of massive liver cancer after operation. The sensitivity, accuracy and specificity of the equation were judged through back-substitution analysis (Table 9-10), and it was judged that the equation can predict the short-term recurrence and metastasis of massive liver cancer after surgery. .

涉及的蛋白检测步骤如下:The protein detection steps involved are as follows:

(a)病理标本来自于巨大肝癌患者活检组织或术中、术后的病理取材。(a) Pathological specimens were obtained from biopsies or intraoperative and postoperative pathological materials of patients with giant liver cancer.

(b)免疫组化方法利用SP染色法,具体步骤如下:(b) The immunohistochemical method uses the SP staining method, and the specific steps are as follows:

(c)制备肝癌组织石蜡切片,60℃烤箱过夜。(c) Paraffin sections of liver cancer tissues were prepared, and the oven was set at 60° C. overnight.

(d)切片脱腊。依次浸泡:二甲苯I:10min;二甲苯II:10min;二甲苯III:10min。(d) Dewaxing of slices. Soak in sequence: Xylene I: 10min; Xylene II: 10min; Xylene III: 10min.

(e)切片水化。依次浸泡:无水乙醇:3min;90%(v/v)乙醇:3min;80%乙醇:3min;75%乙醇:3min。(e) Section hydration. Soak in sequence: absolute ethanol: 3min; 90% (v/v) ethanol: 3min; 80% ethanol: 3min; 75% ethanol: 3min.

(f)PBS清洗3次,每次5min。(f) Washing with PBS 3 times, 5 min each time.

(h)EDTA抗原高压热修复:切片放入0.01M EDTA修复液浸泡,沸水浴5min,冷却至室温。PBS清洗3次,每次5min。(h) EDTA antigen high-pressure heat repair: soak the slices in 0.01M EDTA repair solution, soak in boiling water for 5 minutes, and cool to room temperature. Wash 3 times with PBS, 5min each time.

(I)加入300μL的3%(w/w)过氧化氢水溶液,37℃10min。PBS清洗3次,每次5min。(I) Add 300 μL of 3% (w/w) hydrogen peroxide aqueous solution, 37° C. for 10 min. Wash 3 times with PBS, 5min each time.

(J)加入300μL的3%(w/w)BSA封闭液(PBS配制),37℃1h。PBS清洗3次,每次5min。(J) Add 300 μL of 3% (w/w) BSA blocking solution (prepared in PBS), and keep at 37° C. for 1 hour. Wash 3 times with PBS, 5min each time.

(K)加入一抗:相应蛋白抗体浓度(如表11所示)。4℃冰箱放置16h后取出,室温复温15min,然后PBS洗4次,每次5min。(K) Add primary antibody: the corresponding protein antibody concentration (as shown in Table 11). Place in the refrigerator at 4°C for 16 hours, take it out, rewarm at room temperature for 15 minutes, and then wash with PBS 4 times, 5 minutes each time.

(L)滴加二抗,所述的二抗为辣根过氧化物酶标记的相应二抗(购自福州迈新试剂公司,即用型,无需稀释),37℃45min。PBS洗4次,每次5min。(L) Secondary antibody was added dropwise, said secondary antibody was the corresponding secondary antibody labeled with horseradish peroxidase (purchased from Fuzhou Maixin Reagent Company, ready-to-use, without dilution), 37°C for 45min. Wash 4 times with PBS, 5min each time.

(M)PBS洗3次,每次5min。DAB(DAB显色试剂盒,购自上海生工)显色2-10min,镜下观察;双蒸水洗止显色,苏木素复染10s,用自来水冲洗浸泡。(M) Wash with PBS 3 times, 5 min each time. DAB (DAB Chromogenic Kit, purchased from Shanghai Sangong) developed color for 2-10 minutes, observed under a microscope; washed with double distilled water to stop color development, counterstained with hematoxylin for 10 seconds, rinsed and soaked in tap water.

(N)脱水。依次浸泡:75%乙醇:2min;80%乙醇:2min;90%乙醇:2min;无水乙醇:2min。(N) Dehydration. Soak in sequence: 75% ethanol: 2min; 80% ethanol: 2min; 90% ethanol: 2min; absolute ethanol: 2min.

(O)用电吹风吹干,加入中性树胶,盖玻片覆盖。(O) Blow dry with a hair dryer, add neutral gum, and cover with a cover glass.

(P)有两位病理科医师采用双盲法阅片,有分歧的切片通过讨论后确定,现在低倍镜(×40倍)下观察整张组织芯片各指标阳性表达情况,然后在高倍视野(×200倍)下计数阳性细胞数,每例标本以2或3个点阵取平均值作为该例标本的分值。(P) Two pathologists used the double-blind method to read the slices, and the discrepancies were determined after discussion. Now observe the positive expression of each index in the whole tissue chip under the low power lens (×40 times), and then in the high power field Count the number of positive cells under (×200 times), and take the average value of 2 or 3 lattices for each sample as the score of the sample.

以染色强度和阳性细胞率的得分之和作为判断标准(Shimizu M,SaitonY,Itoh H.Immunohistochemical staining of H-ras oncogene product innormal,benign and malignant human pancreatic tissues.HumPathol,1990,21(6):607-612.):根据染色强度分为四级,细胞无染色记0分,弱染色(浅黄色)记1分,中等染色(棕黄色)记2分,强染色(棕褐色)记3分;根据阳性细胞率也分为四级,0≤阳性细胞率≤5%记为0分,5%<阳性细胞率≤25%记为1分,25%<阳性细胞率≤50%记为2分,阳性细胞率>50%记为3分。上述两项积分相加,0分为阴性(-),1~2分为弱阳性(+),3~4分为中等阳性(++),5~6分为强阳性(+++)。将阴性(—)和弱阳性(+)定义为低表达,中等阳性(++)和强阳性(+++)则为高表达。The sum of staining intensity and positive cell rate is used as the judgment standard (Shimizu M, Saiton Y, Itoh H. Immunohistochemical staining of H-ras oncogene product abnormal, benign and malignant human pancreatic tissues. HumPathol, 1990, 21 (6): 607 -612.): Divided into four grades according to the staining intensity, 0 points for no staining, 1 point for weak staining (light yellow), 2 points for moderate staining (brownish yellow), 3 points for strong staining (tan); According to the positive cell rate, it is also divided into four grades, 0 ≤ positive cell rate ≤ 5% is scored as 0 points, 5% < positive cell rate ≤ 25% is scored as 1 point, 25% < positive cell rate ≤ 50% is scored as 2 points , the positive cell rate > 50% was recorded as 3 points. The above two points are added together, 0 is negative (-), 1-2 is weakly positive (+), 3-4 is moderately positive (++), 5-6 is strongly positive (+++) . Negative (—) and weak positive (+) were defined as low expression, moderate positive (++) and strong positive (+++) were high expression.

(L)采用SPSS17.0进行统计分析,检验指标与临床资料之间的计数资料采用Pearson卡方检验。多因素分析采用logistic回归分析。(L) SPSS 17.0 was used for statistical analysis, and Pearson chi-square test was used for count data between test indicators and clinical data. Multivariate analysis was performed using logistic regression analysis.

结果显示:The results show that:

1.巨大肝癌患者术后6个月内复发转移概率的数学预测模型P=1/(1+Y),Y=e xp(4.092+2.073*x12-2.719*x14-2.58*x17+3.039*x19));1. Mathematical prediction model for the probability of recurrence and metastasis within 6 months after operation in patients with huge liver cancer P=1/(1+Y), Y=exp(4.092+2.073*x12-2.719*x14-2.58*x17+3.039*x19 ));

2.6~12个月内复发转移概率的数学预测模型:P=1/(1+Y),Y=exp(2.528+1.633*x8+0.971*x12-1.517*x17)。其中P为巨大肝癌患者术后近期复发转移概率,X8为术中癌栓,X12为肿瘤分级,X14为IQGAP-2蛋白免疫组化表达情况,X17为S100A12蛋白免疫组化表达情况,X19为APOA2蛋白免疫组化表达情况。2. Mathematical prediction model of recurrence and metastasis probability within 6-12 months: P=1/(1+Y), Y=exp(2.528+1.633*x8+0.971*x12-1.517*x17). Among them, P is the probability of recurrence and metastasis in patients with huge liver cancer after surgery, X8 is tumor thrombus during operation, X12 is tumor grade, X14 is IQGAP-2 protein immunohistochemical expression, X17 is S100A12 protein immunohistochemical expression, X19 is APOA2 Protein immunohistochemical expression.

表1:对6个月复发转移组临床病理资料单因素分析的结果Table 1: Results of univariate analysis of clinicopathological data in the 6-month recurrence and metastasis group

*为两组比较P<0.05*P<0.05 for comparison between two groups

表2:对6~12个月复发转移组临床病理资料单因素分析的结果Table 2: Results of univariate analysis of clinicopathological data in the recurrence and metastasis group within 6 to 12 months

表3:6个月内复发转移组临床病理资料多因素logistic逐步回归分析的结果(α=0.05后退法)Table 3: Results of multivariate logistic regression analysis of clinicopathological data in recurrence and metastasis group within 6 months (α=0.05 backward method)

*为两组比较P<0.05*P<0.05 for comparison between two groups

表4:6~12个月内复发转移组临床病理资料多因素logistic逐步回归分析的结果(α=0.05后退法)Table 4: Results of multivariate logistic regression analysis of clinicopathological data in the recurrence and metastasis group within 6 to 12 months (α = 0.05 backward method)

*为两组比较P<0.05*P<0.05 for comparison between two groups

表5:6种蛋白在6个月复发组及未复发组之间的表达情况Table 5: The expression of 6 proteins between the recurrence group and the non-relapse group at 6 months

表6:6种蛋白在6~12个月复发组及未复发组之间的表达情况Table 6: The expression of 6 proteins between the recurrence group and the non-relapse group at 6 to 12 months

表7:对6个月复发组通过多因素、多蛋白logi回归分析的结果Table 7: Results of multivariate and multiprotein logi regression analysis for the 6-month recurrence group

表8:对6~12个月复发组通过多因素、多蛋白logi回归分析的结果Table 8: Results of multivariate and multiprotein logi regression analysis for the 6-12 month recurrence group

表9:对6个月内复发转移预测模型的方程进行回代性分析,得出该模型的灵敏度、特异性、准确率;Table 9: Back-substitution analysis was performed on the equation of the recurrence and metastasis prediction model within 6 months, and the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the model were obtained;

该预测模型的评价表为包含常数项与4个变量的模型,以概率值0.5作为交界点,得出的预测值与实际数据的比较表,由附表5显示,此概率模型判断巨大肝癌术后早期复发转移的灵敏度为92.3%(36/39),特异度为96.9%(62/64),准确度为95.1%(98/103),这在一定程度上对巨大肝癌近期复发转移有预测作用。The evaluation table of the prediction model is a model containing constant items and 4 variables, with a probability value of 0.5 as the junction point, the comparison table between the predicted value and the actual data is shown in Attached Table 5. The sensitivity of early recurrence and metastasis was 92.3% (36/39), the specificity was 96.9% (62/64), and the accuracy was 95.1% (98/103), which can predict the recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer to a certain extent. effect.

表10:对6~12个月内复发转移预测模型的方程进行回代性分析,得出该模型的灵敏度、特异性、准确率;Table 10: Back-substitution analysis was performed on the equation of the prediction model for recurrence and metastasis within 6 to 12 months, and the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the model were obtained;

该预测模型的评价表为包含常数项与3个变量的模型,以概率值0.5作为交界点,得出的预测值与实际数据的比较表,由附表5显示,此概率模型判断巨大肝癌术后早期复发转移的灵敏度为58.1%(18/31),特异度为85.9%(55/64),准确度为76.8%(73/95),这在一定程度上对巨大肝癌近期复发转移有预测作用。The evaluation table of the prediction model is a model including constant items and 3 variables, with a probability value of 0.5 as the junction point, the comparison table between the predicted value and the actual data is shown in Attached Table 5. The sensitivity of early recurrence and metastasis was 58.1% (18/31), the specificity was 85.9% (55/64), and the accuracy was 76.8% (73/95), which can predict the recent recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer to a certain extent. effect.

表11:各种抗体实验方法Table 11: Various antibody experimental methods

以上显示和描述了本发明的基本原理、主要特征和本发明的优点,只是说明本发明的原理,在不脱离本发明精神和范围的前提下本发明还会有各种变化和改进,这些变化和改进都落入要求保护的本发明范围内。本发明要求保护范围由所附的权利要求书及其等同物界定。The basic principles of the present invention, main features and advantages of the present invention have been shown and described above, which only illustrate the principles of the present invention. The present invention also has various changes and improvements without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. These changes All modifications and improvements are within the scope of the claimed invention. The protection scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.

Claims (3)

1. one kind for predicting the mathematical model P=1/ (1+Y) of relapse and metastasis probability after huge liver cancer operation in patients, P is short-term relapse transition probability after huge liver cancer operation in patients, and P is while being the relapse and metastasis probability in 6 months: Y=exp (4.092+2.073*X12-2.719*X14-2.58*X17+3.039*X19); When P is the 6-12 relapse and metastasis probability of individual month, Y=e xp (2.528+1.633*X8+0.971*X12-1.517*X17); Wherein X8 is cancer embolus in art, if if having X8=1 without X8=0; X12 is tumor grade, X12=3 when X12=2, IV level when X12=1, II-III level during I level; X14 is IQGAP-2 protein immunization group expression, X14=1 when X14=2, low expression during high expressed; X17 is S100A12 protein immunization group expression, X17=1 when X17=2, low expression during high expressed; X19 is APOA2 protein immunization group expression, X19=1 when X19=2, low expression during high expressed.
2. a method of predicting short-term relapse transition probability after huge liver cancer operation in patients, described method comprises:
(1) get in huge liver cancer patient biopsy or art, postoperative pathologic sampling is as Pathologic specimen, and cancer embolus, tumor grade situation in the art of Pathologic specimen carried out to record analysis;
(2) adopt SP immunohistochemical decoration method, obtain respectively the SABC scoring of the SABC scoring of Pathologic specimen IQGAP-2 albumen, the SABC scoring of S100A12 albumen and APOA12 albumen;
(3) by the above-mentioned value relapse and metastasis probability mathematical model P=1/ (1+Y) in substitution 6 months respectively, Y=exp (4.092+2.073*X12-2.719*X14-2.58*X17+3.039*X19); With the relapse and metastasis probability mathematical model P=1/ (1+Y) of 6~12 months, Y=e xp (2.528+1.633*X8+0.971*X12-1.517*X17), calculate respectively and obtain in 6 months and the relapse and metastasis probability of 6~12 months; Wherein X8 is cancer embolus in art, if if having X8=1 without X8=0; X12 is tumor grade, X12=3 when X12=2, IV level when X12=1, II-III level during I level; X14 is IQGAP-2 protein immunization group expression, X14=1 when X14=2, low expression during high expressed; X17 is S100A12 protein immunization group expression, X17=1 when X17=2, low expression during high expressed; X19 is APOA2 protein immunization group expression, X19=1 when X19=2, low expression during high expressed.
3. method as claimed in claim 2, is characterized in that described SP immunohistochemical decoration method method is as follows:
(a) get Pathologic specimen and prepare liver cancer tissue paraffin section, 60 ℃ of baking boxs spend the night;
(b) section is de-cured; Dimethylbenzene I:10min; Dimethylbenzene II:10min; Dimethylbenzene III:10min;
(c) section aquation; Soak successively: absolute ethyl alcohol: 3min; 90% ethanol: 3min; 80% ethanol: 3min; 75% ethanol: 3min;
(d) PBS cleans 3 times, each 5min;
(e) EDTA antigen Pressure method: section is put into 0.01M EDTA and repaired immersion bubble, and boiling water bath 5min, is cooled to room temperature, and PBS cleans 3 times, each 5min;
(f) add 3% aqueous hydrogen peroxide solution of 300 μ L, 37 ℃ of 10min, PBS cleans 3 times, each 5min;
(g) add the 3%BSA confining liquid of 300 μ L, 37 ℃ of 1h; PBS cleans 3 times, each 5min;
(h) add primary antibodie, the primary antibodie antibody concentration of corresponding protein is as follows: IQGAP-2 protein antibodies concentration is 1:300, and the antibody concentration of S100A12 albumen is 1:50, and APOA2 protein antibodies concentration is 1:300; After placing 16h, take out by 4 ℃ of refrigerators, room temperature rewarming 15min, and then PBS washes 4 times, each 5min;
(i) drip two anti-, described two and resist corresponding two anti-for horseradish peroxidase-labeled, 37 ℃ of 45min; PBS washes 4 times, each 5min;
(j) PBS washes 3 times, each 5min; DAB 2~the 10min that develops the color, Microscopic observation; Distilled water is washed only colour developing, and haematoxylin is redyed 10s, with tap water, rinses and soaks;
(k) dehydration; Soak successively: 75% ethanol: 2min; 80% ethanol: 2min; 90% ethanol: 2min; Absolute ethyl alcohol: 2min;
(l) electricity consumption dries up, and adds neutral gum, and cover glass covers;
(m) using the score sum of staining power and positive cell rate as criterion: according to staining power, be divided into level Four, cell dye-free note 0 minute, weak dyeing note 1 minute, moderate stain note 2 minutes, strong dyeing note 3 minutes; According to positive cell rate, be also divided into level Four, 0≤positive cell rate≤5% is designated as 0 minute, 5% < positive cell rate≤25% is designated as 1 minute, and 25% < positive cell rate≤50% is designated as 2 minutes, and positive cell rate > 50% is designated as 3 minutes; Above-mentioned two integrations are added, and 0 minute negative, and 1~2 is divided into the weak positive, and 3~4 are divided into the medium positive, and 5~6 are divided into strong positive, and feminine gender and the weak positive are defined as to low expression, and the medium positive and strong positive are high expressed.
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