CN102945316B - A kind of relay protection device crash rate computing method considering covariant - Google Patents
A kind of relay protection device crash rate computing method considering covariant Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
一种考虑协变量的继电保护设备失效率计算方法，属于电力系统保护技术领域。采用乘法模型，确定继电保护失效率分布参数与协变量的函数关系；由参数与协变量的函数关系，得到威布尔分布型情况下的失效率分布函数；采用最小二乘估计方法来获得分布函数未知参数，从而，计算继电保护设备失效率，式中，m和η分别为威布尔分布形状参数和尺度参数。本发明考虑继电保护内在特性及其外部工作条件，准确模拟继电保护装置的失效特性，建立继电保护协变量失效率计算方法。本发明有助于找出影响其可靠性指标的主要因素，为提高继电保护可靠性提供指导。<!--1-->
The invention relates to a method for calculating the failure rate of relay protection equipment considering covariates, which belongs to the technical field of power system protection. The multiplication model is used to determine the functional relationship between the relay protection failure rate distribution parameters and covariates; the failure rate distribution function in the case of Weibull distribution is obtained from the functional relationship between parameters and covariates; the least square estimation method is used to obtain the distribution The parameters of the function are unknown, thus, the failure rate of the relay protection equipment is calculated , where m and η are the shape parameter and scale parameter of the Weibull distribution, respectively. The invention considers the internal characteristics of the relay protection and its external working conditions, accurately simulates the failure characteristics of the relay protection device, and establishes a calculation method for the failure rate of the relay protection covariate. The invention helps to find out the main factors affecting its reliability index, and provides guidance for improving the reliability of relay protection. <!--1-->
Description
技术领域 technical field
本发明涉及考虑协变量的继电保护装置失效率的计算方法，属于电力系统继电保护可靠性领域。The invention relates to a calculation method for the failure rate of a relay protection device considering covariates, and belongs to the field of reliability of relay protection in electric power systems.
背景技术 Background technique
继电保护设备是保障电网安全运行的第一道防线，其可靠性与电网安全稳定运行密切相关。研究继电保护可靠性，实施继电保护可靠性评估，找出影响其可靠性指标的因素，能够为继电保护维护工作提供一定的理论指导，提高和改善继电保护可靠性，保障电网安全稳定运行。Relay protection equipment is the first line of defense to ensure the safe operation of the power grid, and its reliability is closely related to the safe and stable operation of the power grid. Studying the reliability of relay protection, implementing reliability evaluation of relay protection, and finding out the factors affecting its reliability index can provide certain theoretical guidance for the maintenance of relay protection, improve and improve the reliability of relay protection, and ensure the safety of the power grid Stable operation.
确定继电保护装置的失效模型是实施可靠性评估的基础，模型的精度直接影响可靠性评估结果的准确性。常用的失效概率模型有两类：一类是恒定失效率模型，即失效率为常数，设备的失效完全是随机事件和偶然事件；一类是时间相关失效模型，即失效率函数在整个时间范围内不是常数，而是服从威布尔分布、正态分布、对数正态分布等分布。Determining the failure model of the relay protection device is the basis for reliability assessment, and the accuracy of the model directly affects the accuracy of the reliability assessment results. There are two types of failure probability models commonly used: one is the constant failure rate model, that is, the failure rate is constant, and the failure of the equipment is completely random and accidental; the other is the time-dependent failure model, that is, the failure rate function is in the entire time range The inside is not a constant, but obeys Weibull distribution, normal distribution, lognormal distribution and other distributions.
目前，现有的继电保护设备的失效模型，仅考虑失效率随时间的变化规律，即看作常数或是仅随时间变化的变量。实际上，继电保护设备是由电子元器件构成，电子元器件的故障可能是由于施加的电压或是设备的工作温度造成的。因此，将继电保护失效率看作常数或是仅随时间变化建立的可靠性模型，未考虑继电保护内在特性及其外部工作条件，无法准确模拟继电保护装置的失效特性。同时，考虑继电保护内在特性及其外部工作条件，建立继电保护协变量失效模型，有助于找出影响其可靠性指标的主要因素，为提高继电保护可靠性提供指导。At present, the failure models of the existing relay protection equipment only consider the change law of the failure rate with time, that is, it is regarded as a constant or a variable that only changes with time. In fact, relay protection equipment is composed of electronic components, and the failure of electronic components may be caused by the applied voltage or the operating temperature of the equipment. Therefore, considering the failure rate of relay protection as a constant or a reliability model that only changes with time, without considering the internal characteristics of relay protection and its external working conditions, it is impossible to accurately simulate the failure characteristics of relay protection devices. At the same time, considering the internal characteristics of relay protection and its external working conditions, establishing a covariate failure model of relay protection will help to find out the main factors affecting its reliability index and provide guidance for improving the reliability of relay protection.
发明内容 Contents of the invention
本发明针对现有继电保护设备的失效模型中，无法模拟设备失效率的变化与其内在特性和外部工作条件的关系的问题，提出了一种考虑协变量的继电保护失效模型，模拟继电保护设备失效情况随时间和其他度量参数变化的规律，计算继电保护设备失效率。Aiming at the problem that the failure model of the existing relay protection equipment cannot simulate the relationship between the change of equipment failure rate and its internal characteristics and external working conditions, the invention proposes a relay protection failure model considering covariates, simulating the relay The law of the failure of the protection equipment changing with time and other measurement parameters is used to calculate the failure rate of the relay protection equipment.
技术方案是，一种考虑协变量的继电保护设备失效率的计算方法，所述方法包括下列步骤：The technical solution is a method for calculating the failure rate of relay protection equipment considering covariates, said method comprising the following steps:
步骤1：采用乘法模型，确定继电保护失效率分布参数与协变量的函数关系；Step 1: Using the multiplication model, determine the functional relationship between the relay protection failure rate distribution parameters and covariates;
步骤2：由参数与协变量的函数关系，得到威布尔分布型情况下的失效率分布函数；Step 2: From the functional relationship between parameters and covariates, the failure rate distribution function in the case of Weibull distribution is obtained;
步骤3：采用最小二乘估计方法来获得分布函数未知参数，从而计算继电保护设备失效率。Step 3: The least square estimation method is used to obtain the unknown parameters of the distribution function, so as to calculate the failure rate of the relay protection equipment.
本发明考虑继电保护内在特性及其外部工作条件，准确模拟继电保护装置的失效特性，建立继电保护协变量失效率计算方法。本发明有助于找出影响其可靠性指标的主要因素，为提高继电保护可靠性提供指导。The invention considers the internal characteristics of the relay protection and its external working conditions, accurately simulates the failure characteristics of the relay protection device, and establishes a calculation method for the failure rate of the relay protection covariate. The invention helps to find out the main factors affecting its reliability index, and provides guidance for improving the reliability of relay protection.
附图说明 Description of drawings
图1是本发明流程图。Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention.
具体实施方式 detailed description
下面结合附图，对优选实施例作详细说明。应该强调的是，下述说明仅仅是示例性的，而不是为了限制本发明的范围及其应用。The preferred embodiments will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It should be emphasized that the following description is only exemplary and not intended to limit the scope of the invention and its application.
图1是本发明流程图。图1中，考虑继电保护内在特性及其外部工作条件，引入协变量，模拟继电保护装置的失效特性，计算继电保护设备失效率过程，包括：Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention. In Figure 1, considering the internal characteristics of relay protection and its external working conditions, introducing covariates, simulating the failure characteristics of relay protection devices, and calculating the failure rate of relay protection equipment, the process includes:
步骤1：采用乘法模型，确定继电保护失效率分布参数与协变量的函数关系。Step 1: Use the multiplication model to determine the functional relationship between the failure rate distribution parameters of relay protection and covariates.
电子元器件的故障可能是由于内部或为外部因素造成的，这种因素可以定义为协变量。协变量可能是继电保护设备的运行电压、电流、温度、湿度及环境等其他度量参数。协变量的参数值的大小能够影响继电保护设备的失效情况，因此需要建立二者一种显式关系，即协变量参数值与继电保护失效率分布参数的关系，若η是继电保护失效率的分布函数参数，则有The failure of electronic components may be due to internal or external factors, which can be defined as covariates. Covariates may be other metrics such as operating voltage, current, temperature, humidity, and environment of the relay protection equipment. The size of the parameter value of the covariate can affect the failure of the relay protection equipment, so it is necessary to establish an explicit relationship between the two, that is, the relationship between the parameter value of the covariate and the distribution parameter of the failure rate of the relay protection, if η is the relay protection The parameters of the distribution function of the failure rate are
η(X)=f(x1,x2,…xk)η(X)=f(x 1 ,x 2 ,…x k )
式中，X=(x1, x2,…, xk)，xi为第i个协变量。In the formula, X=(x 1 , x 2 ,…, x k ), x i is the ith covariate.
由于这种关系是未知的，那么可以假设它们之间的关系是一种简单的函数形式。Since this relationship is unknown, it can be assumed that the relationship between them is of a simple functional form.
对于乘法模型下，有For the multiplicative model, we have
式中，ai为有待确定的未知参数，a1=1。In the formula, a i is an unknown parameter to be determined, a 1 =1.
步骤2：根据协变量分布函数，得到威布尔分布型情况下的失效率分布函数。Step 2: According to the covariate distribution function, the failure rate distribution function in the case of Weibull distribution is obtained.
对于威布尔分布，可靠度函数为For the Weibull distribution, the reliability function is
R(t)=exp[-(t/η)m]R(t)=exp[-(t/η) m ]
累计失效函数为The cumulative failure function is
失效率函数为The failure rate function is
式中，m和η分别为威布尔分布形状参数和尺度参数。In the formula, m and η are the shape parameter and scale parameter of the Weibull distribution, respectively.
假设两个参数中只有尺度参数由协变量决定。代入乘法模型下的分布函数参数η，得到威布尔型情况下的考虑协变量的可靠度函数为Assume that only the scale parameter of the two parameters is determined by the covariate. Substituting the parameter η of the distribution function under the multiplicative model, the reliability function considering covariates in the case of Weibull type is obtained as
失效率函数为The failure rate function is
步骤3：采用最小二乘估计方法来获得分布函数未知参数，从而计算继电保护设备失效率。Step 3: The least square estimation method is used to obtain the unknown parameters of the distribution function, so as to calculate the failure rate of the relay protection equipment.
若已知一组继电保护设备失效时间序列(t1, t2,…, tn,)，及时间tj（j=1,2,…,n）对应的的k个协变量参数值(x1j, x2j,…, xkj)，则可采用最小二乘估计法来获取分布函数的位置参数。If a set of relay protection equipment failure time series (t 1 , t 2 ,…, t n ,) is known, and k covariate parameter values corresponding to time t j (j=1,2,…,n) (x 1j , x 2j ,…, x kj ), then the least square estimation method can be used to obtain the position parameters of the distribution function.
由Depend on
F(t)=1-R(t)F(t)=1-R(t)
得到get
由已知的失效时间序列(t1, t2,…, tn,)，通过中位秩公式From the known failure time series (t 1 , t 2 ,…, t n ,), through the median rank formula
F(tj)=(j-0.3)/n+0.4F(t j )=(j-0.3)/n+0.4
可以获得一组经验分布函数值F(tj)（j=1,2,…,n）。A set of empirical distribution function values F(t j ) (j=1,2,...,n) can be obtained.
令yj=lnln[1/(1-F(tj))]，bi=mai，则 。Let y j =lnln[1/(1-F(t j ))], b i =ma i , then .
对yj和相应的独立变量(tj,1,x1j, x2j,…, xkj,)进行线性回归，令Perform linear regression on y j and corresponding independent variables (t j ,1,x 1j , x 2j ,…, x kj ,), let
由最小二乘方法，求解方程组By the method of least squares, solve the system of equations
可得到未知量的估计值Estimates of unknown quantities can be obtained
由bi=mai，从而得到失效率函数的未知参数(m,a1, a2,…, ak)，从而得到考虑协变量的继电保护设备失效率From b i =ma i , the unknown parameters (m,a 1 , a 2 ,…, a k ) of the failure rate function are obtained, and the failure rate of the relay protection equipment considering covariates is obtained
本发明考虑继电保护内在特性及其外部工作条件，准确模拟继电保护装置的失效特性，建立继电保护协变量失效率计算方法。本发明有助于找出影响其可靠性指标的主要因素，为提高继电保护可靠性提供指导。The invention considers the internal characteristics of the relay protection and its external working conditions, accurately simulates the failure characteristics of the relay protection device, and establishes a calculation method for the failure rate of the relay protection covariate. The invention helps to find out the main factors affecting its reliability index, and provides guidance for improving the reliability of relay protection.
以上所述，仅为本发明较佳的具体实施方式，但本发明的保护范围并不局限于此，任何熟悉本技术领域的技术人员在本发明揭露的技术范围内，可轻易想到的变化或替换，都应涵盖在本发明的保护范围之内。因此，本发明的保护范围应该以权利要求的保护范围为准。The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed in the present invention can easily think of changes or Replacement should be covered within the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be determined by the protection scope of the claims.
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| CN103413048A (en) * | 2013-08-15 | 2013-11-27 | 深圳供电局有限公司 | Method for determining optimal retirement time of power grid equipment based on three-parameter Weibull distribution |
| CN103500291A (en) * | 2013-10-23 | 2014-01-08 | 国家电网公司 | Method for estimating time variant failure rate of relay protection device based on Rayleigh distribution |
| CN106326618A (en) * | 2015-07-01 | 2017-01-11 | 华北电力大学（保定） | An internal temperature-based relay protection device time-varying failure rate evaluation method |
| CN106054105B (en) * | 2016-05-20 | 2019-01-15 | 国网新疆电力公司电力科学研究院 | A kind of reliability prediction correction model method for building up of intelligent electric meter |
| CN105891645B (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2018-10-09 | 西安航空制动科技有限公司 | The method for determining the distribution of antiskid brake control device vibration fault |
| CN107274088B (en) * | 2017-06-09 | 2020-10-02 | 杭州电力设备制造有限公司 | Risk field calculation method and system for underground power distribution room |
| CN108459948B (en) * | 2018-03-26 | 2021-03-09 | 华北电力大学（保定） | Determination method of failure data distribution type in system reliability assessment |
| CN110826179B (en) * | 2019-09-29 | 2023-07-11 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Intelligent substation relay protection real-time reliability prediction method |
| CN111668802B (en) * | 2020-04-16 | 2022-09-09 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | A method and system for determining the redundant quantity of a relay protection device |
| CN112152184A (en) * | 2020-09-08 | 2020-12-29 | 华北电力大学 | A method for determining the redundant number of components of a relay protection device |
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