Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. Associate’s Degrees
3. Bachelor’s Degrees
4. Master’s Degrees
5. Doctor’s Degrees

Introduction

Despite enrollment declines from 2010 to 2020 in Title IV degree-granting postsecondary institutions, the numbers of associate’s, bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees conferred have generally increased (Digest 2021 tables 303.10 and 318.10). Increases in the number of degrees conferred are expected to continue between academic year 2019–20, the last year of actual data, and academic year 2030–31. During that period, the number of associate’s degrees is projected to increase 38 percent, the number of bachelor’s degrees is projected to increase 20 percent, the numbers of master’s degrees is projected to increase 17 percent, and the number of doctor’s degrees is projected to increase 16 percent.

Factors affecting the projections

The projections of the number of degrees conferred are related to projections of the college-age populations developed by the Census Bureau and college enrollments from this report. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.6.

Factors that were not considered

Some factors that may affect future numbers of degrees, such as choice of degree and labor force requirements, were not included in the projection models.

Associate’s Degrees

Figure 25. Actual and projected numbers for associate’s degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2010–11 through 2030–31

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Degree-granting institutions grant associate's or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall 2011 through Fall 2020, Completions component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Bachelor’s Degrees

Figure 26. Actual and projected numbers for bachelor’s degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2010–11 through 2030–31

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Degree-granting institutions grant associate's or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall 2011 through Fall 2020, Completions component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Master’s Degrees

Figure 27. Actual and projected numbers for master’s degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2010–11 through 2030–31

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Includes some degrees formerly classified as first-professional, such as divinity degrees (M.Div. and M.H.L./Rav). Degree-granting institutions grant associate's or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall 2011 through Fall 2020, Completions component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Doctor’s Degrees

Figure 28. Actual and projected numbers for doctor’s degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2010–11 through 2030–31

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Doctor’s degrees include Ph.D., Ed.D., and comparable degrees at the doctoral level. Includes most degrees formerly classified as first-professional, such as M.D., D.D.S., and law degrees. Degree-granting institutions grant associate's or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall 2011 through Fall 2020, Completions component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

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