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Welcome to the National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future.

A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences.

Explore the effects of climate change
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Sea Level Rise

Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since reliable record keeping began in 1880. It is projected to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100.

Explore sea level rise.

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Convening Lead Authors

John Walsh, University of Alaska Fairbanks

Donald Wuebbles, University of Illinois

Lead Authors

Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University

James Kossin, NOAA, National Climatic Data Center

Kenneth Kunkel, CICS-NC, North Carolina State Univ., NOAA National Climatic Data Center

Graeme Stephens, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Peter Thorne, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center

Russell Vose, NOAA National Climatic Data Center

Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Josh Willis, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Contributing Authors

David Anderson, NOAA, National Climatic Data Center

Scott Doney, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Richard Feely, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Paula Hennon, CICS-NC, North Carolina State Univ., NOAA National Climatic Data Center

Viatcheslav Kharin, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada

Thomas Knutson, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Felix Landerer, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Tim Lenton, Exeter University

John Kennedy, UK Meteorological Office

Richard Somerville, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California, San Diego

Introduction

This chapter summarizes how climate is changing, why it is changing, and what is projected for the future. While the focus is on changes in the United States, the need to provide context sometimes requires a broader geographical perspective. Additional geographic detail is presented in the regional chapters of this report. Further details on the topics covered by this chapter are provided in the Climate Science Supplement and Frequently Asked Questions Appendices.

The chapter presents 12 key messages about our changing climate, together with supporting evidence for those messages. The discussion of each key message begins with a summary of recent variations or trends, followed by projections of the corresponding changes for the future.

Key Message 10: Sea Level Rise

Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since reliable record keeping began in 1880. It is projected to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100.

Supporting Evidence
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Supporting Evidence

Process for Developing Key Messages

Development of the key messages involved discussions of the lead authors and accompanying analyses conducted via one in-person meeting plus multiple teleconferences and email exchanges from February thru September 2012. The authors reviewed 80 technical inputs provided by the public, as well as other published literature, and applied their professional judgment.

Key message development also involved the findings from four special workshops that related to the latest scientific understanding of climate extremes. Each workshop had a different theme related to climate extremes, had approximately 30 attendees (the CMIP5 meeting had more than 100), and the workshops resulted in a paper.11 The first workshop was held in July 2011, titled Monitoring Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge.12 The second was held in November 2011, titled Forum on Trends and Causes of Observed Changes in Heatwaves, Coldwaves, Floods, and Drought.13 The third was held in January 2012, titled Forum on Trends in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms along the Coasts.14 The fourth, the CMIP5 results workshop, was held in March 2012 in Hawai‘i, and resulted in an analysis of CMIP5 results relative to climate extremes in the United States.11

The Chapter Author Team’s discussions were supported by targeted consultation with additional experts. Professional expertise and judgment led to determining “key vulnerabilities.” A consensus-based approach was used for final key message selection.

Description of evidence base

The key message and supporting text summarize extensive evidence documented in the climate science peer-reviewed literature. Technical Input reports (82) on a wide range of topics were also reviewed; they were received as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input.

Nearly all studies to date published in the peer-reviewed literature agree that global sea level has risen during the past century, and that it will continue to rise over the next century.

Tide gauges throughout the world have documented rising sea levels during the last 130 years. This rise has been further confirmed over the past 20 years by satellite observations, which are highly accurate and have nearly global coverage. Recent studies have shown current sea level rise rates are increasing1,2 and project that future sea level rise over the rest of this century will be faster than that of the last 100 years (Appendix 3: Climate Science, Supplemental Message 12).2

New information and remaining uncertainties

The key issue in predicting future rates of global sea level rise is to understand and predict how ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will react to a warming climate. Current projections of global sea level rise do not account for the complicated behavior of these giant ice slabs as they interact with the atmosphere, the ocean and the land. Lack of knowledge about the ice sheets and their behavior is the primary reason that projections of global sea level rise includes such a wide range of plausible future conditions.

Early efforts at semi-empirical models suggested much higher rates of sea level rise (as much as 6 feet by 2100).3,4 More recent work suggests that a high end of 3 to 4 feet is more plausible.3,5,6,7,8 It is not clear, however, whether these statistical relationships will hold in the future or that they are appropriate in modeling past behavior, thus calling their reliability into question.9Some decision-makers may wish to consider a broader range of scenarios such as 8 inches or 6.6 feet by 2100 in the context of risk-based analysis.10,2

Assessment of confidence based on evidence

Given the evidence and uncertainties, confidence is very high that global sea level has risen during the past century, and that it will continue to rise over this century, with medium confidence that global sea level rise will be in the range of 1 to 4 feet by 2100.

Confidence Level

Very High

Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc.), high consensus

High

Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus

Medium

Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought

Low

Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts

Sea Level Rise

The oceans are absorbing over 90% of the increased atmospheric heat associated with emissions from human activity.18 Like mercury in a thermometer, water expands as it warms up (this is referred to as “thermal expansion”) causing sea levels to rise. Melting of glaciers and ice sheets is also contributing to sea level rise at increasing rates.19

Since the late 1800s, tide gauges throughout the world have shown that global sea level has risen by about 8 inches. A new data set (Figure 2.25) shows that this recent rise is much greater than at any time in at least the past 2000 years.1 Since 1992, the rate of global sea level rise measured by satellites has been roughly twice the rate observed over the last century, providing evidence of additional acceleration.16

Projecting future rates of sea level rise is challenging. Even the most sophisticated climate models, which explicitly represent Earth’s physical processes, cannot simulate rapid changes in ice sheet dynamics, and thus are likely to underestimate future sea level rise. In recent years, “semi-empirical” methods have been developed to project future rates of sea level rise based on a simple statistical relationship between past rates of globally averaged temperature change and sea level rise. These models suggest a range of additional sea level rise from about 2 feet to as much as 6 feet by 2100, depending on emissions scenario.20,3,5,4 It is not clear, however, whether these statistical relationships will hold in the future, or that they fully explain historical behavior.9 Regardless of the amount of change by 2100, however, sea level rise is expected to continue well beyond this century as a result of both past and future emissions from human activities.

Scientists are working to narrow the range of sea level rise projections for this century. Recent projections show that for even the lowest emissions scenarios, thermal expansion of ocean waters21 and the melting of small mountain glaciers22 will result in 11 inches of sea level rise by 2100, even without any contribution from the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. This suggests that about 1 foot of global sea level rise by 2100 is probably a realistic low end. On the high end, recent work suggests that 4 feet is plausible.23,3,6,7,8 In the context of risk-based analysis, some decision makers may wish to use a wider range of scenarios, from 8 inches to 6.6 feet by 2100.10,2 In particular, the high end of these scenarios may be useful for decision makers with a low tolerance for risk (see Figure 2.26 on global sea level rise).10,2 Although scientists cannot yet assign likelihood to any particular scenario, in general,higher emissions scenarios that lead to more warming would be expected to lead to higher amounts of sea level rise.

Figure 2.25: North Atlantic Sea Level Change North Atlantic Sea Level Change Details/Download

Nearly 5 million people in the U.S. live within 4 feet of the local high-tide level (also known as mean higher high water). In the next several decades, storm surges and high tides could combine with sea level rise and land subsidence to further increase flooding in many of these regions.24 Sea level rise will not stop in 2100 because the oceans take a very long time to respond to warmer conditions at the Earth’s surface. Ocean waters will therefore continue to warm and sea level will continue to rise for many centuries at rates equal to or higher than that of the current century.25,26 In fact, recent research has suggested that even present day carbon dioxide levels are sufficient to cause Greenland to melt completely over the next several thousand years.27

Figure 2.26: Past and Projected Changes in Global Sea Level Rise
Past and Projected Changes in Global Sea Level Rise

Figure 2.26: Estimated, observed, and possible future amounts of global sea level rise from 1800 to 2100, relative to the year 2000. Estimates from proxy data1 (for example, based on sediment records) are shown in red (1800-1890, pink band shows uncertainty), tide gauge data are shown in blue for 1880-2009,16 and satellite observations are shown in green from 1993 to 2012.17 The future scenarios range from 0.66 feet to 6.6 feet in 2100.2 These scenarios are not based on climate model simulations, but rather reflect the range of possible scenarios based on other scientific studies. The orange line at right shows the currently projected range of sea level rise of 1 to 4 feet by 2100, which falls within the larger risk-based scenario range. The large projected range reflects uncertainty about how glaciers and ice sheets will react to the warming ocean, the warming atmosphere, and changing winds and currents. As seen in the observations, there are year-to-year variations in the trend. (Figure source: Adapted from Parris et al. 20122 with input from NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory).

Details/Download

References

  1. ,, 2011: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, 538 pp. URL | Detail ↩

  2. Burkett, V., and M. Davidson, 2012: Coastal Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities: A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. Island Press, 216 pp. | Detail ↩

  3. Church, J. A., N. J. White, L. F. Konikow, C. M. Domingues, J. G. Cogley, E. Rignot, J. M. Gregory, M. R. van den Broeke, A. J. Monaghan, and I. Velicogna, 2011: Revisiting the Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L18601, doi:10.1029/2011GL048794. | Detail ↩

  4. Church, J. A., and N. J. White, 2011: Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surveys in Geophysics, 32, 585-602, doi:10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1. | Detail ↩

  5. Gillett, N. P., V. K. Arora, K. Zickfeld, S. J. Marshall, and W. J. Merryfield, 2011: Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions. Nature Geoscience, 4, 83-87, doi:10.1038/ngeo1047. URL | Detail ↩

  6. Gladstone, R. M., V. Lee, J. Rougier, A. J. Payne, H. Hellmer, A. Le Brocq, A. Shepherd, T. L. Edwards, J. Gregory, and S. L. Cornford, 2012: Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 333–334, 191-199, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022. | Detail ↩

  7. Gregory, J. M., N. J. White, J. A. Church, M. F. P. Bierkens, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, J. G. Cogley, X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, P. Huybrechts, L. F. Konikow, P. W. Leclercq, B. Marzeion, J. Oerlemans, M. E. Tamisiea, Y. Wada, L. M. Wake, and R. S. W. van de Wal, 2013: Twentieth-century global-mean sea level rise: Is the whole greater than the sum of the parts? Journal of Climate, 26, 4476-4499, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1. URL | Detail ↩

  8. Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2010: Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD. Climate Dynamics, 34, 461-472, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2. URL | Detail ↩

  9. Jevrejeva, S., J. C. Moore, and A. Grinsted, 2012: Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios. Global and Planetary Change, 80-81, 14-20, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.09.006. | Detail ↩

  10. Jevrejeva, S., J. C. Moore, A. Grinsted, and P. L. Woodworth, 2008: Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, 4, doi:10.1029/2008GL033611. URL | Detail ↩

  11. Joughin, I., B. E. Smith, and D. M. Holland, 2010: Sensitivity of 21st century sea level to ocean-induced thinning of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L20502, doi:10.1029/2010GL044819. URL | Detail ↩

  12. Katsman, C. A., A. Sterl, J. J. Beersma, H. W. van den Brink, W. Hazeleger, R. E. Kopp, D. Kroon, J. Kwadijk, R. Lammersen, J. Lowe, M. Oppenheimer, H. - P. Plag, J. Ridley, H. von Storch, D. G. Vaughan, P. Vellinga, L. L. A. Vermeersen, R. S. W. Wal, and R. Weisse, 2011: Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta - the Netherlands as an example. Climatic Change, 109, 617-645, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5. URL | Detail ↩

  13. Kemp, A. C., B. P. Horton, J. P. Donnelly, M. E. Mann, M. Vermeer, and S. Rahmstorf, 2011: Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108, 11017-11022, doi:10.1073/pnas.1015619108. URL | Detail ↩

  14. Kunkel, K. E. et al., 2013: Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: State of knowledge. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1. URL | Detail ↩

  15. Marzeion, B., A. H. Jarosch, and M. Hofer, 2012: Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 3177-3241, doi:10.5194/tcd-6-3177-2012. URL | Detail ↩

  16. Nerem, R. S., D. P. Chambers, C. Choe, and G. T. Mitchum, 2010: Estimating mean sea level change from the TOPEX and Jason altimeter missions. Marine Geodesy, 33, 435-446, doi:10.1080/01490419.2010.491031. URL | Detail ↩

  17. Parris, A., P. Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A. Sallenger, and J. Weiss, 2012: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1. 37 pp., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD. URL | Detail ↩

  18. Peterson, T. C. et al., 2013: Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94, 821-834, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00066.1. URL | Detail ↩

  19. Rahmstorf, S., G. Foster, and A. Cazenave, 2012: Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 044035, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035. URL | Detail ↩

  20. Rahmstorf, S., M. Perrette, and M. Vermeer, 2012: Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections. Climate Dynamics, 39, 861-875, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7. | Detail ↩

  21. Robinson, A., R. Calov, and A. Ganopolski, 2012: Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet. Nature Climate Change, 2, 429-432, doi:10.1038/nclimate1449. URL | Detail ↩

  22. Solomon, S., G. - K. Plattner, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein, 2009: Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.0812721106. URL | Detail ↩

  23. Strauss, B. H., R. Ziemlinski, J. L. Weiss, and J. T. Overpeck, 2012: Tidally adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014033, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014033. | Detail ↩

  24. Vermeer, M., and S. Rahmstorf, 2009: Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 21527-21532, doi:10.1073/pnas.0907765106. | Detail ↩

  25. Vose, R. S. et al., 2013: Monitoring and understanding changes in extremes: Extratropical storms, winds, and waves. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00162.1. URL | Detail ↩

  26. Wuebbles, D. J., G. Meehl, K. Hayhoe, T. R. Karl, K. Kunkel, B. Santer, M. Wehner, B. Colle, E. M. Fischer, R. Fu, A. Goodman, E. Janssen, H. Lee, W. Li, L. N. Long, S. Olsen, A. J. Sheffield, and L. Sun, 2013: CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate extremes in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00172.1. URL | Detail ↩

  27. Yin, J., 2012: Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, 7, doi:10.1029/2012GL052947. | Detail ↩

The National Climate Assessment summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future.

A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences.

United States Global Change Research Program logo United States Global Change Research Program participating agency logos

2014 National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program
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