ABSTRACT A study of changes in hydro-climatology of the Great Lakes was performed incorporating t... more ABSTRACT A study of changes in hydro-climatology of the Great Lakes was performed incorporating the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend detection test and a recently developed Bayesian multiple change point detection model. The Component Net Basin Supply (C-NBS) and its components (runoff, precipitation, evaporation) and also water levels of Great Lakes were analysed for gradual (i.e. trend) and abrupt (i.e. shift) type nonstationary behaviours at seasonal and annual scales. It was found that the C-NBS experienced significant upward trends only in the lower Great Lakes (Erie, Ontario) during summer portion of the year. At an annual scale upward trends were observed only in Lake Ontario. Change point analysis suggests an upward shift in Great Lakes C-NBS in late 1960s and early 1970s. A combination of gradual and abrupt change analysis of Great Lakes water levels suggests a common upward shift along with a change in trend direction around early 1970s. It is also found that precipitation and runoff are in a plateau and in some cases in a decreasing course preceded by an increasing trend in the early twentieth century. Results obtained from this study show that the hydro-climatology of Great Lakes is characterized with nonstationary behaviour. Changes in this behaviour have caused the Great Lakes water levels to decrease during the last few decades. This study provides valuable insights into the nature of the nonstationary behaviour of hydro-climatic variables of the Great Lakes and contributes useful information to future water management planning.
ABSTRACT Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that p... more ABSTRACT Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that provided by Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This paper investigates the impact of climate change on maximum and minimum temperatures (i.e., predictands) of 14 meteorological stations in the Upper Thames River Basin (UTRB), Ontario, Canada. The data used for evaluation were large-scale predictor variables, extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set and the simulations from third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate model (CGCM3). Data for four grid points covering the study region were used for developing the downscaling model. A downscaling method based on neural network was applied to project predictands generated from GCM using three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). The potential of the downscaling models in simulating predictands was evaluated and downscaling results reveal that the proposed downscaling model can reproduce local daily predictands from large-scale weather variables. Trends of projected maximum and minimum temperatures were studied for historical as well as downscaled values using GCM and scenario uncertainty. There is most likely an increasing trend for Tmax and Tmin for A2 scenario whereas no trend has been observed for B1 scenarios during 2081-2100.
Cold Region Atmospheric and Hydrologic Studies. The Mackenzie GEWEX Experience, 2008
Chapter 19 Trends in Mackenzie River Basin Streamflows Donald H. Burn and Nicole Hesch Abstract T... more Chapter 19 Trends in Mackenzie River Basin Streamflows Donald H. Burn and Nicole Hesch Abstract Trends in the hydrologic regime were analyzed ... Arctic 56: 328 340 Yue S, Pilon PJ,Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability todetecttrend ...
ABSTRACT A study of changes in hydro-climatology of the Great Lakes was performed incorporating t... more ABSTRACT A study of changes in hydro-climatology of the Great Lakes was performed incorporating the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend detection test and a recently developed Bayesian multiple change point detection model. The Component Net Basin Supply (C-NBS) and its components (runoff, precipitation, evaporation) and also water levels of Great Lakes were analysed for gradual (i.e. trend) and abrupt (i.e. shift) type nonstationary behaviours at seasonal and annual scales. It was found that the C-NBS experienced significant upward trends only in the lower Great Lakes (Erie, Ontario) during summer portion of the year. At an annual scale upward trends were observed only in Lake Ontario. Change point analysis suggests an upward shift in Great Lakes C-NBS in late 1960s and early 1970s. A combination of gradual and abrupt change analysis of Great Lakes water levels suggests a common upward shift along with a change in trend direction around early 1970s. It is also found that precipitation and runoff are in a plateau and in some cases in a decreasing course preceded by an increasing trend in the early twentieth century. Results obtained from this study show that the hydro-climatology of Great Lakes is characterized with nonstationary behaviour. Changes in this behaviour have caused the Great Lakes water levels to decrease during the last few decades. This study provides valuable insights into the nature of the nonstationary behaviour of hydro-climatic variables of the Great Lakes and contributes useful information to future water management planning.
ABSTRACT Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that p... more ABSTRACT Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that provided by Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This paper investigates the impact of climate change on maximum and minimum temperatures (i.e., predictands) of 14 meteorological stations in the Upper Thames River Basin (UTRB), Ontario, Canada. The data used for evaluation were large-scale predictor variables, extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set and the simulations from third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate model (CGCM3). Data for four grid points covering the study region were used for developing the downscaling model. A downscaling method based on neural network was applied to project predictands generated from GCM using three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). The potential of the downscaling models in simulating predictands was evaluated and downscaling results reveal that the proposed downscaling model can reproduce local daily predictands from large-scale weather variables. Trends of projected maximum and minimum temperatures were studied for historical as well as downscaled values using GCM and scenario uncertainty. There is most likely an increasing trend for Tmax and Tmin for A2 scenario whereas no trend has been observed for B1 scenarios during 2081-2100.
Cold Region Atmospheric and Hydrologic Studies. The Mackenzie GEWEX Experience, 2008
Chapter 19 Trends in Mackenzie River Basin Streamflows Donald H. Burn and Nicole Hesch Abstract T... more Chapter 19 Trends in Mackenzie River Basin Streamflows Donald H. Burn and Nicole Hesch Abstract Trends in the hydrologic regime were analyzed ... Arctic 56: 328 340 Yue S, Pilon PJ,Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability todetecttrend ...
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