Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2010
A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes is demonstrated a... more A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes is demonstrated and applied to several major cities in Florida. The procedure, called the hurricane risk calculator, provides an estimate of wind risk over different length periods and can be applied to any location experiencing this hazard. Results show that the city of Miami can expect to see hurricane winds blowing at 50 m s−1 [45.5–54.5 m s−1 is the 90% confidence interval (CI)] or stronger, on average, once every 12 yr. In comparison, the city of Pensacola can expect to see hurricane winds of 50 m s−1 (46.9–53.1 m s−1, 90% CI) or stronger once every 24 yr. A quantile regression is applied to hurricane wind speeds in the vicinity of Florida. Results show that the strongest hurricanes are getting stronger as a consequence of higher offshore intensification rates.
Consideration of climate-related impacts on coasts is important to ensure readiness for disaster ... more Consideration of climate-related impacts on coasts is important to ensure readiness for disaster response. Local risk of storm surge and strong winds from hurricanes affecting Galveston, Texas, is quantified using a bivariate copula model fit to observed data. The model uses a two-dimensional Archimedean copula. Parametric uncertainty (5th and 95th percentiles) is quantified using a Monte Carlo procedure. The annual probability of a hurricane producing winds of at least 50 ms−1 and a surge of at least 4 m is 1.7 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval of (1.33, 1.78) percent. The methodology can be extended to include inland flooding and can be applied elsewhere with available information.
Hurricanes pose serious threats to people and infrastructure along the United States Gulf and Atl... more Hurricanes pose serious threats to people and infrastructure along the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The risk of the strongest hurricane winds over the North Atlantic basin is analyzed using a statistical model from extreme value theory and a tessellation of the domain. The spatial variation in model parameters is shown, and an estimate of the limiting strength of hurricanes at locations across the basin is provided. Quantitative analysis of the variation is done using a geographically weighted regression with regional sea surface temperature as a covariate. It is found that as sea surface temperatures increase, the expected hurricane wind speed for a given return period also increases.
A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes, known as the Hur... more A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes, known as the Hurricane Risk Calculator, is demonstrated and applied to several major cities in Louisiana. The procedure provides an estimate of wind risk over different length periods and can be applied to any location experiencing this hazard. Results show that an area 100 km around the city of New Orleans can expect to see hurricane winds blowing at 49 ms-1 (44.3–53.7) [90 % confidence interval (CI)] or stronger, on average, once every 20 years. In comparison, for the same time period, the capital city of Baton Rouge and the surrounding area can expect to see hurricane winds of 43 ms-1 (38.2–47.8) (90 % CI) or stronger. Hurricane track direction is also analyzed at the cities of interest. For Morgan City, Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Alexandria, tropical cyclones with winds at least
18 ms-1 travel from the southeast to northwest. New Orleans and Baton Rouge tropical cyclones have a greater tendency to turn toward the east while within 100 km of the city, historically giving them a southwesterly approach. Tropical cyclones within 350 km off
the south-central Louisiana coast occur most often in September, and the most extreme of these events are becoming stronger through time as shown with quantile regression.
The record of past tropical cyclones provides an important means to evaluate the hurricane hazard... more The record of past tropical cyclones provides an important means to evaluate the hurricane hazard. Historical chronologies are a source of information about tropical cyclones prior to the modern era. Chenoweth [2006] describes an archive of 383 tropical cyclones occurring during the 18th and 19th centuries, largely before the official hurricane record. The present study demonstrates a novel way this archive can be used to articulate historical tropical cyclone activity across space. First, an event in the archive is assigned a series of latitude/longitude coordinates approximating the descriptive locations of the cyclone’s affect. Second, tropical cyclones from the modern record that approach these locations (modern analogs) are mapped. Third, a probable pathway and a realistic track of the archived event is created by averaging the modern analog tracks. As an example, the procedure is used to generate a map showing the tracks of the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 1766. Sensitivity of the methodology to changes in event location and event timing are considered. The study shows that historical hurricane chronologies when combined with a history of cyclone tracks can provide useful information about the older events that is not directly related to where the original information was gathered. When this information is available for all cyclones it should help climatologists better understand long-term variations in tropical cyclone activity.
Florida has been visited by some of the most destructive and devastating hurricanes on record in ... more Florida has been visited by some of the most destructive and devastating hurricanes on record in the United States causing well over $450 billion in damage since the early 20th century. The value of insured property in Florida against windstorm damage is the highest in the nation and on the rise. The frequency and severity of hurricanes affecting Florida are examined from the best set of available data and the damages are related to characteristics of the storms at landfall. Results show that normalized losses are increasing over time consistent with small increases in hurricane intensity and hurricane size. The best predictor of potential losses is minimum central pressure. Hurricane size alone or in combination with hurricane intensity does not improve on the simpler relationship. An estimate of potential losses from hurricanes can be obtained using a formula involving only a forecast of the minimum pressure at landfall. The ability to estimate potential losses in Florida will increase the ability to estimate losses in other areas of the United States, and will also allow policy makers and insurance companies to provide relevant information to the concerned public.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2010
A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes is demonstrated a... more A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes is demonstrated and applied to several major cities in Florida. The procedure, called the hurricane risk calculator, provides an estimate of wind risk over different length periods and can be applied to any location experiencing this hazard. Results show that the city of Miami can expect to see hurricane winds blowing at 50 m s−1 [45.5–54.5 m s−1 is the 90% confidence interval (CI)] or stronger, on average, once every 12 yr. In comparison, the city of Pensacola can expect to see hurricane winds of 50 m s−1 (46.9–53.1 m s−1, 90% CI) or stronger once every 24 yr. A quantile regression is applied to hurricane wind speeds in the vicinity of Florida. Results show that the strongest hurricanes are getting stronger as a consequence of higher offshore intensification rates.
Consideration of climate-related impacts on coasts is important to ensure readiness for disaster ... more Consideration of climate-related impacts on coasts is important to ensure readiness for disaster response. Local risk of storm surge and strong winds from hurricanes affecting Galveston, Texas, is quantified using a bivariate copula model fit to observed data. The model uses a two-dimensional Archimedean copula. Parametric uncertainty (5th and 95th percentiles) is quantified using a Monte Carlo procedure. The annual probability of a hurricane producing winds of at least 50 ms−1 and a surge of at least 4 m is 1.7 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval of (1.33, 1.78) percent. The methodology can be extended to include inland flooding and can be applied elsewhere with available information.
Hurricanes pose serious threats to people and infrastructure along the United States Gulf and Atl... more Hurricanes pose serious threats to people and infrastructure along the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The risk of the strongest hurricane winds over the North Atlantic basin is analyzed using a statistical model from extreme value theory and a tessellation of the domain. The spatial variation in model parameters is shown, and an estimate of the limiting strength of hurricanes at locations across the basin is provided. Quantitative analysis of the variation is done using a geographically weighted regression with regional sea surface temperature as a covariate. It is found that as sea surface temperatures increase, the expected hurricane wind speed for a given return period also increases.
A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes, known as the Hur... more A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes, known as the Hurricane Risk Calculator, is demonstrated and applied to several major cities in Louisiana. The procedure provides an estimate of wind risk over different length periods and can be applied to any location experiencing this hazard. Results show that an area 100 km around the city of New Orleans can expect to see hurricane winds blowing at 49 ms-1 (44.3–53.7) [90 % confidence interval (CI)] or stronger, on average, once every 20 years. In comparison, for the same time period, the capital city of Baton Rouge and the surrounding area can expect to see hurricane winds of 43 ms-1 (38.2–47.8) (90 % CI) or stronger. Hurricane track direction is also analyzed at the cities of interest. For Morgan City, Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Alexandria, tropical cyclones with winds at least
18 ms-1 travel from the southeast to northwest. New Orleans and Baton Rouge tropical cyclones have a greater tendency to turn toward the east while within 100 km of the city, historically giving them a southwesterly approach. Tropical cyclones within 350 km off
the south-central Louisiana coast occur most often in September, and the most extreme of these events are becoming stronger through time as shown with quantile regression.
The record of past tropical cyclones provides an important means to evaluate the hurricane hazard... more The record of past tropical cyclones provides an important means to evaluate the hurricane hazard. Historical chronologies are a source of information about tropical cyclones prior to the modern era. Chenoweth [2006] describes an archive of 383 tropical cyclones occurring during the 18th and 19th centuries, largely before the official hurricane record. The present study demonstrates a novel way this archive can be used to articulate historical tropical cyclone activity across space. First, an event in the archive is assigned a series of latitude/longitude coordinates approximating the descriptive locations of the cyclone’s affect. Second, tropical cyclones from the modern record that approach these locations (modern analogs) are mapped. Third, a probable pathway and a realistic track of the archived event is created by averaging the modern analog tracks. As an example, the procedure is used to generate a map showing the tracks of the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 1766. Sensitivity of the methodology to changes in event location and event timing are considered. The study shows that historical hurricane chronologies when combined with a history of cyclone tracks can provide useful information about the older events that is not directly related to where the original information was gathered. When this information is available for all cyclones it should help climatologists better understand long-term variations in tropical cyclone activity.
Florida has been visited by some of the most destructive and devastating hurricanes on record in ... more Florida has been visited by some of the most destructive and devastating hurricanes on record in the United States causing well over $450 billion in damage since the early 20th century. The value of insured property in Florida against windstorm damage is the highest in the nation and on the rise. The frequency and severity of hurricanes affecting Florida are examined from the best set of available data and the damages are related to characteristics of the storms at landfall. Results show that normalized losses are increasing over time consistent with small increases in hurricane intensity and hurricane size. The best predictor of potential losses is minimum central pressure. Hurricane size alone or in combination with hurricane intensity does not improve on the simpler relationship. An estimate of potential losses from hurricanes can be obtained using a formula involving only a forecast of the minimum pressure at landfall. The ability to estimate potential losses in Florida will increase the ability to estimate losses in other areas of the United States, and will also allow policy makers and insurance companies to provide relevant information to the concerned public.
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estimate of the limiting strength of hurricanes at locations across the basin is provided. Quantitative analysis of the variation is done using a geographically weighted regression with regional sea surface temperature as a covariate. It is found that as sea surface temperatures increase, the expected hurricane wind speed for a given return period also increases.
18 ms-1 travel from the southeast to northwest. New Orleans and Baton Rouge tropical cyclones have a greater tendency to turn toward the east while within 100 km of the city, historically giving them a southwesterly approach. Tropical cyclones within 350 km off
the south-central Louisiana coast occur most often in September, and the most extreme of these events are becoming stronger through time as shown with quantile regression.
estimate of the limiting strength of hurricanes at locations across the basin is provided. Quantitative analysis of the variation is done using a geographically weighted regression with regional sea surface temperature as a covariate. It is found that as sea surface temperatures increase, the expected hurricane wind speed for a given return period also increases.
18 ms-1 travel from the southeast to northwest. New Orleans and Baton Rouge tropical cyclones have a greater tendency to turn toward the east while within 100 km of the city, historically giving them a southwesterly approach. Tropical cyclones within 350 km off
the south-central Louisiana coast occur most often in September, and the most extreme of these events are becoming stronger through time as shown with quantile regression.