[go: up one dir, main page]

Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Three decades of research on climate change and peace: a bibliometrics analysis

  • Special Feature: Review Article
  • The Sustainability–Peace Nexus in the Context of Global Change
  • Published:
Sustainability Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Over the past 3 decades, a vast body of research has been published on the interactions between climate change and events that undermine negative peace. Consequently, several review papers have been published in the last few years on this nexus. However, there is still a lack of a comprehensive bibliometrics analysis of the field. Accordingly, the main aim of this study is to fill this gap to advance our understanding of the existing literature. For this purpose, we analyzed 1337 articles indexed in the Web of Science using VOSviewer and SciMAT that are two commonly used software tools for science mapping and bibliometrics analysis. The SciMAT tool was also used to examine thematic evolution of the nexus over three consecutive sub-periods (i.e., 1990–2007, 2008–2014, and 2015–2020). Results show that research on this nexus has grown steadily since 1990, but the trends have rapidly increased after the publication of the IPCC assessment report in 2007. Four major thematic focus areas were identified, namely, (1) war and violent conflict, (2) political tensions and institutional mechanisms to deal with conflicts, (3) disasters and other climatic impacts that may lead to massive human displacements, and (4) conflicts/cooperation related to water resources. Results of the SciMAT analysis confirm and add weight to these findings. They also show that, over time, issues related to environmental security have gained more attention. An important finding is that the focus has mainly been on war and violent conflicts and other events are not well addressed. The article concludes with some recommendations for future research.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. “A bibliographic coupling link is a link between two items that both cite the same document. A co-citation link is a link between two items that are both cited by the same document” Van Eck N. and L. Waltman (2020). VOSviewer Manual for VOSviewer version 1.6.14. Leiden University, Leiden University.

  2. Note that the lower number of publications in 2020 compared to 2019 is because the initial search was done in early 2020. Also, the fact that more than 40 articles have already been published by Feb 2020 confirms an upward trend.

References

  • Abel GJ, Brottrager M, Cuaresma JC, Muttarak R (2019) Climate, conflict and forced migration. Glob Environ Change-Hum Policy Dimens 54:239–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abrahams D (2019) From discourse to policy: US policy communities' perceptions of and approaches to climate change and security. Confl Secur Dev 19(4):323–345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abrahams D, Carr ER (2017) Understanding the connections between climate change and conflict: contributions from geography and political ecology. Curr Clim Change Rep 3(4):233–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams C, Ide T, Barnett J, Detges A (2018) Sampling bias in climate-conflict research. Nat Clim Change 8(3):200–203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amadei B (2019) Engineering for peace and diplomacy. Sustainability (Switzerland) 11(20):5646

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anthony MC, Emmers R, Acharya A (2006) Non-traditional security in Asia: dilemmas in securitization. Ashgate Publishing, Ltd., Farnham

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnett J (2003) Security and climate change. Glob Environ Change-Hum Policy Dimens 13(1):7–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnett J, Adger WN (2007) Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Polit Geogr 26(6):639–655

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bernauer T, Bohmelt T, Koubi V (2012) Environmental changes and violent conflict. Environ Res Lett 7(1):8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bettini G (2017) Where Next? Climate Change, Migration, and the (Bio) politics of Adaptation. Global Policy 8:33–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briggs CM (2012) Climate security, risk assessment and military planning. Int Aff 88(5):1049

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks DB, Trottier J, Doliner L (2013) Changing the nature of transboundary water agreements: the Israeli-Palestinian case. Water Int 38(6):671–686

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks N, Adger WN, Kelly PM (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Glob Environ Change-Hum Policy Dimens 15(2):151–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown O, Hammill A, McLeman R (2007) Climate change as the 'new' security threat: implications for Africa. Int Aff 83(6):1141–1154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buhaug H (2010) Climate not to blame for African civil wars. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(38):16477–16482

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Burke MB, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema JA, Lobell DB (2009) Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(49):20670–20674

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cobo MJ, Lopez-Herrera AG, Herrera-Viedma E, Herrera F (2012) SciMAT: a new science mapping analysis software tool. J Am Soc Inform Sci Technol 63(8):1609–1630

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cobo MJ, López-Herrera AG, Herrera-Viedma E, Herrera F (2011a) An approach for detecting, quantifying, and visualizing the evolution of a research field: a practical application to the Fuzzy Sets Theory field. J Informetr 5(1):146–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cobo MJ, López-Herrera AG, Herrera-Viedma E, Herrera F (2011b) Science mapping software tools: review, analysis, and cooperative study among tools. J Am Soc Inform Sci Technol 62(7):1382–1402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Connell J, Lutkehaus N (2017) Environmental Refugees? A tale of two resettlement projects in coastal Papua New Guinea. Aust Geogr 48(1):79–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Devlin C, Hendrix CS (2014) Trends and triggers redux: climate change, rainfall, and interstate conflict. Polit Geogr 43:27–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dixon J (2009) What causes civil wars? Integrating quantitative research findings. Int Stud Rev 11(4):707–735

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Edwards MJ (1999) Security implications of a worst-case scenario of climate change in the South-west Pacific. Aust Geogr 30(3):311–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fang MM (2020) A crisis or an opportunity? The trade war between the US and China in the Solar PV Sector. J World Trade 54(1):103–125

    Google Scholar 

  • Feitelson E, Tubi A (2017) A main driver or an intermediate variable? Climate change, water and security in the Middle East. Glob Environ Change-Hum Policy Dimens 44:39–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galtung J (1969) Violence, peace, and peace research. J Peace Res 6(3):167–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gleditsch NP (2012) Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict. J Peace Res 49(1):3–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gleditsch NP, Nordkvelle J, Strand H (2014) Peace research—just the study of war? J Peace Res 51(2):145–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gleick PH (1989) The implications of global climatic changes for international security. Clim Change 15(1):309–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gleick PH (1993) Water and conflict: fresh water resources and international security. Int Secur 18(1):79–112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gleick PH (2019) Water as a weapon and casualty of armed conflict: a review of recent water-related violence in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Wiley Interdiscip Reviews-Water 6(4):15

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamed Y, Hadji R, Redhaounia B, Zighmi K, Baali F, El Gayar A (2018) Climate impact on surface and groundwater in North Africa: a global synthesis of findings and recommendations. Euro-Mediterr J Environ Integr 3(1):15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hassan M, Afridi MK, Khan MI (2017) Environmental diplomacy in South Asia: considering the environmental security, conflict and development nexus. Geoforum 82:127–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hendrix CS, Salehyan I (2012) Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. J Peace Res 49(1):35–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoang C, Satyal P, Corbera E (2019) 'This is my garden': justice claims and struggles over forests in Vietnam's REDD. Clim Policy 19:S23–S35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Homer-Dixon TF (1994) Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: evidence from cases. Int Secur 19(1):5–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Homer-Dixon TF (1999) Environment, scarcity, and violence. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • HRC (2019) Climate change and poverty: report of the special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights. Human Rights Council, United Nations

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsiang SM, Burke M, Miguel E (2013) Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science 341(6151):1212

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hsiang SM, Meng KC (2014) Reconciling disagreement over climate-conflict results in Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111(6):2100–2103

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hsiang SM, Meng KC, Cane MA (2011) Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate. Nature 476(7361):438–441

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • IEP (2019). Global Peace Index 2019: Measuring Peace in a Complexed World. https://visionofhumanity.org/app/uploads/2019/10/PPR-2019-web.pdf ;Sydney, Institute for Economics and Peace. Accessed 13 Apr 2020

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jasparro C, Taylor J (2008) Climate change and regional vulnerability to transnational security threats in Southeast Asia. Geopolitics 13(2):232–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalabamu FT (2019) Land tenure reforms and persistence of land conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa—the case of Botswana. Land Use Policy 81:337–345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karnieli A, Shtein A, Panov N, Weisbrod N, Tal A (2019) Was drought really the trigger behind the syrian civil war in 2011? Water 11(8):11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelley CP, Mohtadi S, Cane MA, Seager R, Kushnir Y (2015) Climate change in the fertile crescent and implications of the recent syrian drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(11):3241–3246

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Knight A (2005) Global environmental threats: can the security council protect our earth? NY Univ Law Rev 80(5):1549–1585

    Google Scholar 

  • Koubi V (2019) Climate change and conflict. Annu Rev Polit Sci 22(1):343–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koubi V, Spilker G, Bohmelt T, Bernauer T (2014) Do natural resources matter for interstate and intrastate armed conflict? J Peace Res 51(2):227–243

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kranz N, Menniken T, Hinkel J (2010) Climate change adaptation strategies in the Mekong and Orange-Senqu basins: what determines the state-of-play? Environ Sci Policy 13(7):648–659

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Link PM, Scheffran J, Ide T (2016) Conflict and cooperation in the water-security nexus: a global comparative analysis of river basins under climate change. Wiley Interdiscip Reviews-Water 3(4):495–515

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lintz G, Leibenath M (2020) The politics of energy landscapes: the influence of local anti-wind initiatives on state policies in Saxony, Germany. Energy Sustain Soc 10(1):22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mach KJ, Kraan CM, Adger WN, Buhaug H, Burke M, Fearon JD, Field CB, Hendrix CS, Maystadt J-F, O’Loughlin J, Roessler P, Scheffran J, Schultz KA, von Uexkull N (2019) Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature 571:193–197

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mayer FW, Phillips N (2019) The Trump presidency, climate change, and the prospect of a disorderly energy transition. Rev Int Stud 45(3):502–510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mbaye LM, Zimmermann KF (2016) Natural disasters and human mobility. Int Rev Environ Res Econ 10(1):37–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Methmann C, Oels A (2015) From 'fearing' to 'empowering' climate refugees: governing climate-induced migration in the name of resilience. Secur Dialogue 46(1):51–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miguel E, Satyanath S, Sergenti E (2004) Economic shocks and civil conflict: an instrumental variables approach. J Polit Econ 112(4):725–753

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milne S, Mahanty S, To P, Dressler W, Kanowski P, Thavat M (2019) Learning from 'Actually existing' redd plus : a synthesis of ethnographic findings. Conserv Soc 17(1):84–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordas R, Gleditsch NP (2007) Climate change and conflict. Polit Geogr 26(6):627–638

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O'Sullivan TM (2015) Environmental security is homeland security: climate disruption as the ultimate disaster risk multiplier. Risk Hazards Crisis Public Policy 6(2):183–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peters, K., K. Holloway and L. E. Peters (2019). Disaster risk reduction in conflict contexts: the state of the evidence. Overseas Development Institute. https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/12691.pdf. Accessed 13 Mar 2020

  • Raleigh C (2010) Political marginalization, climate change, and conflict in african sahel states. Int Stud Rev 12(1):69–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raleigh C, Linke A, Hegre H, Karlsen J (2010) Introducing ACLED: an armed conflict location and event dataset. J Peace Res 47(5):651–660

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raleigh C, Urdal H (2007) Climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict. Polit Geogr 26(6):674–694

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reuveny R (2007) Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Polit Geogr 26(6):656–673

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roth D, Khan MSA, Jahan I, Rahman R, Narain V, Singh AK, Priya M, Sen S, Shrestha A, Yakami S (2019) Climates of urbanization: local experiences of water security, conflict and cooperation in peri-urban South-Asia. Clim Policy 19:S78–S93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sakaguchi K, Varughese A, Auld G (2017) Climate Wars? A systematic review of empirical analyses on the links between climate change and violent conflict. Int Stud Rev 19(4):622–645

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheffran J, Brzoska M, Kominek J, Link PM, Schilling J (2012) Climate change and violent conflict. Science 336(6083):869–871

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schilling J, Hertig E, Tramblay Y, Scheffran J (2020) Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa. Reg Environ Change 20(1):12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schilling J, Nash SL, Ide T, Scheffran J, Froese R, von Prondzinski P (2017) Resilience and environmental security: towards joint application in peacebuilding. Glob Change Peace Secur 29(2):107–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schleussner CF, Donges JF, Donner RV, Schellnhuber HJ (2016) Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 113(33):9216–9221

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon N, Birhane E, Gordon C, Haile M, Taheri F, Azadi H, Scheffran J (2018) Environmental impacts and causes of conflict in the Horn of Africa: a review. Earth Sci Rev 177:284–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor PJ, Buttel FH (1992) How do we know we have global environmental-problems—science and the globalization of environmental discourse. Geoforum 23(3):405–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terwel BW, Daamen DDL (2012) Initial public reactions to carbon capture and storage (CCS): differentiating general and local views. Clim Policy 12(3):288–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Titley DW, Stjohn C (2010) Arctic security considerations and the U.S. navy's roadmap for the Arctic. Naval War Coll Rev 63(2):35–48

    Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ (2009) The economic effects of climate change. J Econ Perspect 23(2):29–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tubi A, Feitelson E (2016) Drought and cooperation in a conflict prone area: bedouin herders and Jewish farmers in Israel's northern Negev, 1957–1963. Polit Geogr 51:30–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNSDG (2015). About the Sustainable Development Goals, United Nations. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/. Accessed on 30 October 2019

  • Van Eck N, Waltman L (2009) Software survey: VOSviewer, a computer program for bibliometric mapping. Scientometrics 84(2):523–538

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Eck N, Waltman L (2020) VOSviewer Manual for VOSviewer version 1.6.14. Leiden University, Leiden

    Google Scholar 

  • van Weezel S (2019) On climate and conflict: precipitation decline and communal conflict in Ethiopia and Kenya. J Peace Res 56(4):514–528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Weezel S (2020) Local warming and violent armed conflict in Africa. World Dev 126:11

    Google Scholar 

  • Virji H, Sharifi A, Kaneko S, Simangan D (2019) The sustainability–peace nexus in the context of global change. Sustain Sci 14(6):1467–1468

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walch C (2018) Disaster risk reduction amidst armed conflict: informal institutions, rebel groups, and wartime political orders. Disasters 42:S239–S264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yoffe SB, Ward BS (1999) Water resources and indicators of conflict—a proposed spatial analysis. Water Int 24(4):377–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang DD, Brecke P, Lee HF, He YQ, Zhang J (2007) Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(49):19214–19219

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ayyoob Sharifi.

Additional information

Handled by Hassan Virji, Hiroshima University, Japan.

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 1224 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sharifi, A., Simangan, D. & Kaneko, S. Three decades of research on climate change and peace: a bibliometrics analysis. Sustain Sci 16, 1079–1095 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-020-00853-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-020-00853-3

Keywords

Navigation