Abstract
The interdecadal changes in typhoon (categories 1–3) frequency and its genesis condition over the western North Pacific during the period of 1979–2011 are investigated with consideration for discrepancies among best track datasets. To tide over data uncertainty, a detection-produced dataset is utilized as a homogeneous dataset with five available best track datasets. Typhoon experienced interdecadal changes around the mid-1990s and the mid-2000s in their genesis conditions. Even under the oceanic warm state, typhoon frequency has decreased since the mid-1990s, showing a northwestward movement of its genesis location over the main formation region. The eastward gradient of vertical wind shear is the most significant factor for the change in typhoon genesis condition in recent decades. The vertical wind shear behavior is strongly linked with zonal asymmetry of local SST. We demonstrate that a westward gradient of local SST is the most important modulator of the recent typhoon behavior through the movement of favorable genesis location. The present results indicate that the horizontal distribution, not magnitude, of local SST can be a key factor for prediction of future typhoon activity, thus contributing to natural disaster mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Atkinson GD (1974) Investigation of gust factors in tropical cyclones. FLEWEACENTechnical note JTWC 74-1, Fleet Weather Center, Guam, 9 pp
Barcikowska M, Feser F, Storch HV (2012) Usability of best track data in climate statistics in the western North Pacific. Mon Wea Rev 140:2818–2830
Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Esch M, Keenlyside N, Kornblueh L, Luo JJ, Yamagata T (2007) How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? Tellus 59A:539–561
Camargo SJ, Zebiak SE (2002) Improving the detection and tracking of tropical cyclones in atmospheric general circulation models. Weather Forecast 17:1152–1162
Chan JCL (2006) Comment on “Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment”. Science 311:1713
Chan JCL (2008) Decadal variations of intense typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific. Proc R Soc A 464:249–272
Chan JCL (2009) Thermodynamic control on the climate of intense tropical cyclones. Proc R Soc A 465:3011–3021
Emanuel KA (1995) Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics. J Atmos Sci 52:3969–3976
Emanuel KA (2007) Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation. J Clim 20:5497–5509
Emanuel KA, Nolan DS (2004) Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. In: 26th conference on hurricanes and tropical meteorology, American Meteorology Society, Miami, FL, pp 240–241 (preprints)
Frank WM, Young GS (2007) The interannual variability of tropical cyclones. Mon Wea Rev 135:3587–3598
Goldenberg SB, Landsea CW, Mestas-Nuñes AM, Gray WM (2001) The recent increase in Atlantic Hurricane activity: causes and implications. Science 293:474–479
Gray WM (1979) Hurricanes: their formation, structure, and likely role in the tropical circulation. In: Shaw DB (Ed) Meteorology over the tropical oceans. Royal Meteorological Society, pp 155–218
Ha KJ, Yoon SJ, Yun KS, Kug JS, Jang YS, Chan JCL (2012) Dependency of typhoon intensity and genesis locations on El Niño phase and SST shift over the western North Pacific. Theor Appl Climatol 109:383–395
Hsu PC, Chu PS, Murakami H, Zhao X (2014) An abrupt decrease in the late-season typhoon activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00417.1
Kim HM, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2011) Modulation of North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by three phases of ENSO. J Clim 24:1839–1849
Knapp KR, Kruk MC (2010) Quantifying interagency differences in tropical cyclone best-track wind speed estimates. Mon Wea Rev 138:1459–1473
Knapp KR, Kruk MC, Levinson DH, Diamond HJ, Neumann CJ (2010) The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone data. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 91:363–376
Knutson TR, McBride JL, Chan JCL, Emanuel K, Holland G, Landsea C, Held I, Kossin JP, Srivastava AK, Sugi M (2010) Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat Geosci 3:157–163
Kossin JP, Knapp KR, Vimont DJ, Murnane RJ, Harper BA (2007) A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophys Res Lett 34:L04815. doi:10.1029/2006GL028836
Landsea CW, Harper BA, Hoarau K, Knaff JA (2006) Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science 313:452–454
Lee MI, Schubert SD, Kim D (2011) Representation of tropical storms in the Northwestern Pacific by the Modern-Era retrospective analysis for research and applications. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 47(3):245–253
Lee TC, Knutson TR, Kamahori H, Ying M (2012) Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific Basin. Part I: past observations. Trop Cyclone Res Rev 1(2):213–230
Liu KS, Chan JCL (2013) Inactive period of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 1998–2011. J Clim 26:2614–2630
Murakami H (2014) Tropical cyclones in reanalysis data sets. Geophys Res Lett 41:2133–2141
Murakami H, Wang B (2010) Future change of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks: projection by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model. J Clim 23:2699–2721
Murakami H, Wang B, Kitoh A (2011) Future change of western North Pacific typhoons: projections by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model*. J Clim 24:1154–1169
North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirial orthogonal functions Mon Wea Rev 110:699–706
Park MS, Elsberry RL, Harr PA (2012) Vertical wind shear and ocean heat content as environmental modulators of western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensification and decay. Trop Cyclone Res Rev 1(4):448–457
Pettit A (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl Stat 28(2):126–135
Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670
Rienecker MM, Suarez MJ, Gelaro R et al (2011) MERRA: NASA’s modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. J Clim 24:3624–3648
Song JJ, Wang Y, Wu L (2010) Trend discrepancies among three best track data sets of western North Pacific tropical cyclones. J Geophys Res 115:D12128. doi:10.1029/2009JD013058
Vecchi GA, Knutson TR (2011) Estimating annual numbers of Atlantic hurricanes missing from the HURDAT database (1878–1965) using ship track density. J Clim 24:1736–1746
Velden C, Harper B, Wells F et al (2006) The Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity estimation technique: a satellite-based method that has endured for over 30 years. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:1195–1210
Wang B, Chan JCL (2002) How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific*. J Clim 15:1643–1658
Webster PJ, Holland GJ, Curry JA, Chang HR (2005) Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309:1844–1846
Wu MC, Yeung KH, Chang WL (2006) Trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity. Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 87(48):537–548
Yeh SW, Kang SK, Kirtman BP, Kim JH, Kwon MH, Kim CH (2010) Decadal change in relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency and the tropical Pacific SST. Meteorol Atmos Phys 106:179–189
Zhan R, Wang Y, Lei X (2011) Contributions of ENSO and East Indian Ocean SSTA to the interannual variability of northwest pacific tropical cyclone frequency*. J Clim 24:509–521
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by GRL Grant of the National Research Foundation (NRF) funded by the Korean Government (MEST 2011-0021927).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Choi, Y., Ha, KJ., Ho, CH. et al. Interdecadal change in typhoon genesis condition over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 45, 3243–3255 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2536-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2536-y