Abstract
This paper examines an issue concerning the simulation of anomalously wet Indian summer monsoons like 1994 which co-occurred with strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean. Contrary to observations it has been noticed that standalone atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) forced with observed SST boundary condition, consistently depicted a decrease of the summer monsoon rainfall during 1994 over the Indian region. Given the ocean–atmosphere coupling during IOD events, we have examined whether the failure of standalone AGCM simulations in capturing wet Indian monsoons like 1994 can be remedied by including a simple form of coupling that allows the monsoon circulation to dynamically interact with the IOD anomalies. With this view, we have performed a suite of simulations by coupling an AGCM to a slab-ocean model with spatially varying mixed-layer-depth (MLD) specified from observations for the 1994 IOD; as well as four other cases (1983, 1997, 2006, 2007). The specification of spatially varying MLD from observations allows us to constrain the model to observed IOD conditions. It is seen that the inclusion of coupling significantly improves the large-scale circulation response by strengthening the monsoon cross-equatorial flow; leading to precipitation enhancement over the subcontinent and rainfall decrease over south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean—in a manner broadly consistent with observations. A plausible physical mechanism is suggested to explain the monsoonal response in the coupled frame-work. These results warrant the need for improved monsoon simulations with fully coupled models to be able to better capture the observed monsoon interannual variability.















Similar content being viewed by others
References
Annamalai H, Murtugudde R (2004) Role of the Indian ocean in regional climate variability, earth’s climate: the ocean-atmosphere interaction. Geophys Monogr Am Geophys Union 147:213–246
Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Influence of the Indian ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502
Ashok K, Guan Z, Saji NH, Yamagata T (2004) Individual and combined influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole on the Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 17:3141–3154
Behera SK, Krishnan R, Yamagata T (1999) Unusual ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Indian ocean during 1994. Geophys Res Lett 26:3001–3004
Behera SK, Luo J-J, Masson S, Delecluse P, Gualdi S, Navarra A, Yamagata T (2005) Paramount impact of the Indian ocean dipole on the east African short rains: a CGCM study. J Clim 18:4514–4530
Behera SK, Luo JJ, Masson S, Rao SA, Sakuma H, Yamagata T (2006) A CGCM study on the interaction between IOD and ENSO. J Clim 19:1608–1705
Charney JG, Shukla J (1981) Predictability of monsoon. In: Lighthill J, Pearce RP (eds) Monsoon dynamics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 99–109
Chowdary JS, Xie S-P, Luo J-J, Hafner J, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T (2009) Predictability of northwest Pacific climate during summer and the role of the tropical Indian ocean. Clim Dyn (accepted)
Delsole T, Shukla J (2002) Linear prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. J Clim 15:3645–3658
Feng M, Meyers G (2003) Interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean: a two-year time scale of IOD. Deep Sea Res 50:2263–2284
Fennessy MJ et al (1994) The simulated Indian monsoon: a GCM sensitivity study. J Clim 7:33–43
Gadgil S, et al (2009) Seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon. Final project report, Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, pp 1–38
Gadgil S, Vinayachandran PN, Francis PA, Gadgil S (2004) Extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, ENSO and equatorial Indian ocean oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 31:L12213. doi:10.1029/2004GL019733
Gadgil S, Rajeevan M, Nanjundiah R (2005) Monsoon prediction: why yet another failure? Curr Sci 88:1389–1400
Goswami BN (1998) Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: external conditions versus internal feedbacks. J Clim 11:501–522
Goswami BN, Xavier P (2005) Dynamics of ‘internal’ interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM. J Geophys Res 110:D24104. doi:10.1029/2005JD006042
Gualdi S, Guilyardi E, Navarra A, Masina S, Delecluse P (2003) The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 20:567–582
Holton JR (1982) An introduction to dynamic meteorology. Academic Press, Dublin
Joseph S, Sahai AK, Goswami BN (2009) Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal monsoon prediction in DEMETER coupled models. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0635-3
Kang I-S, Shukla J (2005) Dynamical seasonal prediction and predictability of monsoon. In: Chang C-P, Wang B, Lau N-C (eds) The global monsoon system: research and forecast. WMO/TD no. 126:386–402
Kinter J et al (1997) The COLA atmosphere-biosphere general circulation model. Vol I: formulation, COLA technical report 51. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Maryland
Kister R et al (2001) The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis. Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 82:247–267
Kripalani RH, Oh JH, Kang JH, Sabade SS, Kulkarni A (2005) Extreme monsoons over East Asia: possible role of Indian ocean zonal mode. Theor Appl Climatol 82:81–94
Krishna Kumar K, Hoerling M, Rajagopalan B (2005) Advancing dynamical predictions of the Indian monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 32:L08704. doi:10.1029/2004GL021979
Krishnan R, Swapna P (2009) Significance influence of the boreal summer monsoon flow on the Indian Ocean response during dipole events. J Clim 22:5611–5634
Krishnan R, Venkatesan C, Keshavamurty RN (1998) Dynamics of upper tropospheric stationary wave anomalie induced by ENSO during the northern summer. A GCM study. Proc Indian Acad Sci (Earth Planet Sci) 107:65–90
Krishnan R, Mujumdar M, Vaidya V, Ramesh KV, Satyan V (2003) The abnormal summer monsoon of 2000. J Clim 16:1177–1194
Krishnan R, Ramesh KV, Samala BK, Meyers G, Slingo JM, Fennessy MJ (2006) Indian Ocean-monsoon coupled interactions and impending monsoon droughts. Geophys Res Lett 33:L08711. doi:10.1029/2006GL025811
Krishnan R, Kumar V, Sugi M, Yoshimura J (2009) Internal feedbacks from monsoon-midlatitude interactions during droughts in the Indian summer monsoon. J Atmos Sci 66:553–578
Li T, Wang B, Chang C-P, Zhang Y (2003) A theory for the Indian ocean dipole-zonal mode. J Atmos Sci 60:2119–2135
Li T, Liu P, Fu X, Wang B, Meehl GA (2006) Tempo-spatial structures and mechanisms of the tropospheric biennial oscillation in the Indo-Pacific warm ocean regions. J Clim 19:3070–3087
Loschnigg J, Meehl GA, Webster PJ, Arblaster JM, Compo GP (2003) The Asian monsoon, the tropospheric biennial oscillation and the Indian ocean dipole in the NCAR CSM. J Clim 16:2138–2158
Luo J-J, Masson S, Behera S, Yamagata T (2007) Experimental forecasts of the Indian ocean dipole using a coupled OAGCM. J Clim 20:2178–2190
Luo J-J, Behera S, Masumoto Y, Sakuma H, Yamagata T (2008) Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007. Geophy Res Lett 35:L14S02. doi:10.1029/2007GL032793
Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (2002) The tropospheric biennial oscillation and Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall. J Clim 15:722–744
Meyers G, McIntosh P, Pigot L, Pook M (2007) The years of El Niño, La Niña, and interactions with the tropical Indian ocean. J Clim 20(13):2872–2880
Mujumdar M, Kumar V, Krishnan R (2007) The Indian summer monsoon drought of 2002 and its linkage with tropical convective activity over northwest Pacific. Clim Dyn 28:743–758
Murtugudde R, McCreary J, Busalcchi A (2000) Oceanic processes associated with anomalous events in the Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res 105:3295–3306
Palmer TN, Anderson DLT (1994) The prospects for seasonal forecasting—a review paper. Quart J Roy Meteorol Soc 120:755–793
Pattanaik DR, Kumar A (2010) Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system. Clim Dyn 34:557–572
Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale JD, Lal B (2006) High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Curr Sci 91:296–306
Ramesh KV, Krishnan R (2005) Coupling of mixed layer processes and thermocline variations in the Arabian sea. J Geophys Res 110:C05005. doi:10.1029/2004JC002515
Rayner NA et al (2003) Global analyses of SST, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:ACL2.1–ACL2.29 10.1029/2002JD002670
Reynolds RW, Smith TM (1994) Improved global sea surface temperature analyses. J Clim 7:929–948
Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran P, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian ocean. Nature 401:360–363
Shukla J (2007) Monsoon mysteries. Science 318:204–205. doi:10.1126/science.1150045
Slingo JM, Annamalai H (2000) 1997: the El Niño of the century and the response of the Indian summer monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 128:1778–1797
Sperber KR, Palmer TN (1996) Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the atmospheric model intercomparision project. J Clim 9:2727–2750
Sugi M, Kawamura R, Sato N (1997) A study of SST-forced variability and potential predictability of seasonal mean fields using the JMA global model. J Meteorol Soc Japan 75:717–736
Swapna P, Krishnan R (2008) Equatorial undercurrents associated with Indian Ocean Dipole events during contrasting summer monsoons. Geophys Res Lett 35:L14S04. doi:10.1029/2008GL033430
Terray P, Chauvin F, Douville H (2007) Impact of southeast Indian ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on monsoon-ENSO-dipole variability in a coupled ocean—atmosphere model. Clim Dyn 28:553–580. doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0192-y
Wang B, Ding QH, Fu XH, Kang I-S, Jin K, Shukla J, Doblas-Reyes F (2005) Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15711
Webster PJ, Moore AM, Loschnigg JP, Leben RR (1999) Coupled Ocean-atmosphere dynamics in Indian Ocean during 1997–98. Nature 401:356–360
Xie P, Arkin P (1997) A 17-year monthly climatology based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558
Yamagata T, Behera SK, Luo J-J, Masson S, Jury MR, Rao SA (2004) The coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Geophys Monogr 147:189–211
Acknowledgments
We thank Prof. B.N. Goswami, Director, IITM for all the support and necessary infrastructural facilities. We are also grateful to the three anonymous reviewers and the Editor Jean-Claude Duplessy for the constructive reviews.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Krishnan, R., Sundaram, S., Swapna, P. et al. The crucial role of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the Indian monsoon anomalous response during dipole events. Clim Dyn 37, 1–17 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0830-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0830-2