Dominika Hajdu
Research Fellow in GLOBSEC think tank, Bratislava, Slovakia; specialised in disinformation, strategic communication & societal views in Central Europe; MA in EU Foreign Policy, KU Leuven, Belgium; working experience in Brussels within EU structures; BA in European Studies, Comenius University, Bratislava
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many years to come. Against this backdrop, in this report, we
present current perceptions in the Central and Eastern European and
Western Balkan regions towards a range of political topics.
The report, in particular, provides answers to urgent public health
concerns including the willingness of societies to get vaccinated
against COVID-19 and proneness to believing COVID-19 related
conspiracy theories.
We also scrutinise how the European Union, NATO and major powers including the United States, China and Russia are perceived in the region and whether their standing has improved or suffered setbacks in the wake of the pandemic.
And as disinformation campaigns and information chaos continue
to ravage our information environment, we assessed the
prevalence of different polarising narratives and their impact on
attitudes towards liberal democracy and international cooperation. While
both democracy and international cooperation have suffered setbacks
in recent years, public perceptions from the nine surveyed countries
suggest they have not been vanquished yet.
The next decades and the future of the region will, as always, depend to a great extent on the key driving force – young people. What effects do current developments have on young Central Europeans and what does it mean for the future of Central Europe?
Youth Trends shed more light on these questions. Using targeted online polling among more than 2,000 young people aged between 18-34 years, it provides deeper insight into young people’s perceptions of the world, the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Russia in four Central European countries: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.
A joint project by the Austrian Society for European Politics, the Center for European Neighborhood Studies (Central European University Budapest), EUROPEUM Prague, the Faculty of Social Sciences (University of Ljubljana) and GLOBSEC Policy Institute Bratislava examines on the basis of representative opinion polls if people in Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia buy into anti-EU rhetoric and to what extent the respective national EU debate affects EU public opinion.
From Online Battlefield to Loss of Trust? sheds further light on young people’s consumption of information and disinformation. The report is based on research conducted among 18-24 year olds residing in Central and Southeastern Europe for the purposes of Countering Disinformation in the V4 Region: Mapping Needs, Building Capacity and Generating Civic Activism, a project that’s financially supported by the US Department of State.
Having collected unique qualitative data from focus groups in eight European countries, the report also seeks to understand the complexities of the lives and thinking of today’s youth and its impact upon the political and social realities of our societies.
The support for EU membership is relatively high among Slovak society; there is a strong sense of awareness about the EU’s positive role in terms of cooperation, democracy and fundamental rights.
Similarly, the majority of the population recognises quite well the advantages EU membership has brought to their country not only in economic terms, but also in terms of its political weight and security.
A considerable proportion of respondents, almost 60%, regard EU membership as beneficial for the country’s political weight. This can be regarded as a positive sign, given the strong words of “EU-dictate”
or “EU restricting our sovereignty” spoken by many Slovak political representatives. However, while many ordinary Slovaks and politicians
are critical of the EU, most do not want to leave the organisation. Accordingly, criticisms levelled at some EU policies – most notably migration - should not be conflated with Euroscepticism.
From a regional perspective, Slovakia finds itself in a complicated situation. As its southern and northern neighbours (Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) adopt more critical and populistic approaches
towards the EU, the country’s political leaders have remained vehemently pro-European. Indeed, Slovakia’s positive European outlook might even be difficult to sustain given that regional cooperation - whether in the format of the Visegrad Four or similar groupings – is widely regarded as the only mechanism for making its voice heard in Brussels.
The nationalists and populists using the frustrations to question fundamental democratic values are often dominating the agenda. Harsh political rhetoric targeting the EU, attempts to rein in independent media and NGOs, the concentration of economic and political power in the hands of few, all these are important warning signs of the democratic order under attack. Such trends do not go unnoticed by external forces such as Russia or China – taking advantage of polarised societies to weaken the EU and NATO from within is one of the most powerful techniques to destabilise their adversaries.
But is it really so effective? Do these narratives affect how people in the CEE see the EU or NATO? Whose values do the CEE citizens align with? Whom do they perceive as a threat to the national security? Do anti-democratic narratives affect them at all?
In the latest GLOBSEC Trends 2019 report, we are bringing a unique insight into perceptions of more than 7,000 citizens from Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. These are our key findings:
1. Support for the EU is increasing across the region despite rising Eurosceptic political forces in some countries. Yet, people often feel that the EU is ruled by a few big states and their representatives do not have a say on important issues.
2. Despite the attacks of populists, the overwhelming majority in the CEE think that the work of media and NGOs are important for democracy.
3. While NATO enjoys huge support among 7 in 10 Central and Eastern Europeans, who recognise its importance for their security, at the same time, 4 in 10 support the idea of setting up a European army as an alternative to NATO.
4. Not everyone would like to see their country positioned in the West (only 35% on average). In the Visegrad Four, around half would prefer their country remain somewhere in-between East and West to get the “best of both worlds”.
5. The identity of people in the CEE is rather linked to the European Union. A majority identifies with the values of the EU.
Topics addressed:
- EU - perception and referendum on membership
- NATO perception and referendum on membership
- sympathies towards world leaders (Merkel, Macron, Trump, Putin )
- support for conspiracy theories (9/11, Jewish world dominance, USA role in Syria etc.)
- Post-communist nostalgia
Data from GLOBSEC Trends 2018 confirms that Central Europe is quite diverse and individual countries are moving in different directions. While 55% of Czechs and 56% of Slovaks have moved even further to the in-between position – neither siding with the East nor the West – Hungarians preference for the West has increased.
Surprisingly, Poles aged between 18 – 24 years are the least pro-Western youth. Only 27% would position their country in the West, compared to 57% of Czechs, 69% of Hungarians and 34% of Slovaks in the same age range. Poland nevertheless remains the region’s most vocal supporter of NATO, even if the gap in support between V4 states has narrowed. That said, our survey also found that support for NATO among Czechs and Slovak youth increased by 40% and 21% respectively.
The gap in perceptions of the European Union (EU) has also narrowed. Support for EU membership in the region’s most Eurosceptic country, the Czech Republic, has increased by 28% over the past year. Conversely, positive perceptions of the EU decreased in Hungary and Poland.
It’s also a mixed picture when it comes to Central European perceptions of world leaders and their policies. Poles are the biggest supporters of Merkel (50%) and Trump (46%), while Macron is the favourite of Czechs (49%) and Putin of Slovaks (41%). In the case of the Russian president, most Central Europeans do not believe that Moscow interfered in recent US and European elections.
GLOBSEC Trends also suggests that some Central Europeans are susceptible to conspiracy theories. For example, 40% of Slovaks believe that the United States supports terrorists in Syria and 52% think that Jews have too much power and secretly control many global organisations.
Furthermore, the overwhelming majority of Central Europeans perceive the fall of communism as a good thing. The notable exceptions to this rule are the 41% of Slovaks and 34% of Hungarians who believe that their lives (or the lives of people like them) were better before the end of the Cold War.
Who is the biggest Eurosceptic and which countries are the satisfied with thier EU membership?
Would Central European countries honour their Article 5 obligation and defend their NATO allies in case of an attack?
How do people in this region perceive world political leaders such as Donald Trump, Angela Merkel or Vladimir Putin?
Would they support a strong authoritarian leader over liberal democracy?
Answers to these questions and much more is included in the latest comprehensive analysis of public opinion surveys in 7 Central and Eastern European Countries – GLOBSEC Trends 2017. Comparison of the results from Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia provides an overview of common trends but also regional differences and vulnerabilities present in the societies of this region.
many years to come. Against this backdrop, in this report, we
present current perceptions in the Central and Eastern European and
Western Balkan regions towards a range of political topics.
The report, in particular, provides answers to urgent public health
concerns including the willingness of societies to get vaccinated
against COVID-19 and proneness to believing COVID-19 related
conspiracy theories.
We also scrutinise how the European Union, NATO and major powers including the United States, China and Russia are perceived in the region and whether their standing has improved or suffered setbacks in the wake of the pandemic.
And as disinformation campaigns and information chaos continue
to ravage our information environment, we assessed the
prevalence of different polarising narratives and their impact on
attitudes towards liberal democracy and international cooperation. While
both democracy and international cooperation have suffered setbacks
in recent years, public perceptions from the nine surveyed countries
suggest they have not been vanquished yet.
The next decades and the future of the region will, as always, depend to a great extent on the key driving force – young people. What effects do current developments have on young Central Europeans and what does it mean for the future of Central Europe?
Youth Trends shed more light on these questions. Using targeted online polling among more than 2,000 young people aged between 18-34 years, it provides deeper insight into young people’s perceptions of the world, the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Russia in four Central European countries: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.
A joint project by the Austrian Society for European Politics, the Center for European Neighborhood Studies (Central European University Budapest), EUROPEUM Prague, the Faculty of Social Sciences (University of Ljubljana) and GLOBSEC Policy Institute Bratislava examines on the basis of representative opinion polls if people in Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia buy into anti-EU rhetoric and to what extent the respective national EU debate affects EU public opinion.
From Online Battlefield to Loss of Trust? sheds further light on young people’s consumption of information and disinformation. The report is based on research conducted among 18-24 year olds residing in Central and Southeastern Europe for the purposes of Countering Disinformation in the V4 Region: Mapping Needs, Building Capacity and Generating Civic Activism, a project that’s financially supported by the US Department of State.
Having collected unique qualitative data from focus groups in eight European countries, the report also seeks to understand the complexities of the lives and thinking of today’s youth and its impact upon the political and social realities of our societies.
The support for EU membership is relatively high among Slovak society; there is a strong sense of awareness about the EU’s positive role in terms of cooperation, democracy and fundamental rights.
Similarly, the majority of the population recognises quite well the advantages EU membership has brought to their country not only in economic terms, but also in terms of its political weight and security.
A considerable proportion of respondents, almost 60%, regard EU membership as beneficial for the country’s political weight. This can be regarded as a positive sign, given the strong words of “EU-dictate”
or “EU restricting our sovereignty” spoken by many Slovak political representatives. However, while many ordinary Slovaks and politicians
are critical of the EU, most do not want to leave the organisation. Accordingly, criticisms levelled at some EU policies – most notably migration - should not be conflated with Euroscepticism.
From a regional perspective, Slovakia finds itself in a complicated situation. As its southern and northern neighbours (Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) adopt more critical and populistic approaches
towards the EU, the country’s political leaders have remained vehemently pro-European. Indeed, Slovakia’s positive European outlook might even be difficult to sustain given that regional cooperation - whether in the format of the Visegrad Four or similar groupings – is widely regarded as the only mechanism for making its voice heard in Brussels.
The nationalists and populists using the frustrations to question fundamental democratic values are often dominating the agenda. Harsh political rhetoric targeting the EU, attempts to rein in independent media and NGOs, the concentration of economic and political power in the hands of few, all these are important warning signs of the democratic order under attack. Such trends do not go unnoticed by external forces such as Russia or China – taking advantage of polarised societies to weaken the EU and NATO from within is one of the most powerful techniques to destabilise their adversaries.
But is it really so effective? Do these narratives affect how people in the CEE see the EU or NATO? Whose values do the CEE citizens align with? Whom do they perceive as a threat to the national security? Do anti-democratic narratives affect them at all?
In the latest GLOBSEC Trends 2019 report, we are bringing a unique insight into perceptions of more than 7,000 citizens from Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. These are our key findings:
1. Support for the EU is increasing across the region despite rising Eurosceptic political forces in some countries. Yet, people often feel that the EU is ruled by a few big states and their representatives do not have a say on important issues.
2. Despite the attacks of populists, the overwhelming majority in the CEE think that the work of media and NGOs are important for democracy.
3. While NATO enjoys huge support among 7 in 10 Central and Eastern Europeans, who recognise its importance for their security, at the same time, 4 in 10 support the idea of setting up a European army as an alternative to NATO.
4. Not everyone would like to see their country positioned in the West (only 35% on average). In the Visegrad Four, around half would prefer their country remain somewhere in-between East and West to get the “best of both worlds”.
5. The identity of people in the CEE is rather linked to the European Union. A majority identifies with the values of the EU.
Topics addressed:
- EU - perception and referendum on membership
- NATO perception and referendum on membership
- sympathies towards world leaders (Merkel, Macron, Trump, Putin )
- support for conspiracy theories (9/11, Jewish world dominance, USA role in Syria etc.)
- Post-communist nostalgia
Data from GLOBSEC Trends 2018 confirms that Central Europe is quite diverse and individual countries are moving in different directions. While 55% of Czechs and 56% of Slovaks have moved even further to the in-between position – neither siding with the East nor the West – Hungarians preference for the West has increased.
Surprisingly, Poles aged between 18 – 24 years are the least pro-Western youth. Only 27% would position their country in the West, compared to 57% of Czechs, 69% of Hungarians and 34% of Slovaks in the same age range. Poland nevertheless remains the region’s most vocal supporter of NATO, even if the gap in support between V4 states has narrowed. That said, our survey also found that support for NATO among Czechs and Slovak youth increased by 40% and 21% respectively.
The gap in perceptions of the European Union (EU) has also narrowed. Support for EU membership in the region’s most Eurosceptic country, the Czech Republic, has increased by 28% over the past year. Conversely, positive perceptions of the EU decreased in Hungary and Poland.
It’s also a mixed picture when it comes to Central European perceptions of world leaders and their policies. Poles are the biggest supporters of Merkel (50%) and Trump (46%), while Macron is the favourite of Czechs (49%) and Putin of Slovaks (41%). In the case of the Russian president, most Central Europeans do not believe that Moscow interfered in recent US and European elections.
GLOBSEC Trends also suggests that some Central Europeans are susceptible to conspiracy theories. For example, 40% of Slovaks believe that the United States supports terrorists in Syria and 52% think that Jews have too much power and secretly control many global organisations.
Furthermore, the overwhelming majority of Central Europeans perceive the fall of communism as a good thing. The notable exceptions to this rule are the 41% of Slovaks and 34% of Hungarians who believe that their lives (or the lives of people like them) were better before the end of the Cold War.
Who is the biggest Eurosceptic and which countries are the satisfied with thier EU membership?
Would Central European countries honour their Article 5 obligation and defend their NATO allies in case of an attack?
How do people in this region perceive world political leaders such as Donald Trump, Angela Merkel or Vladimir Putin?
Would they support a strong authoritarian leader over liberal democracy?
Answers to these questions and much more is included in the latest comprehensive analysis of public opinion surveys in 7 Central and Eastern European Countries – GLOBSEC Trends 2017. Comparison of the results from Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia provides an overview of common trends but also regional differences and vulnerabilities present in the societies of this region.