Per Wikman-Svahn

Tis paper presents a tailor-made scenario approach for climate change adaptation planning, which emphasises involvement of stakeholders in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and relates to the planning situation and interest of the planning entity. The method was developed and tested in case studies in three different sectors in Sweden (the health sector, the tourism sector and water resource management). The result of the case studies is that the tailor-made scenario approach facilitated the engagement of the local planning body in climate change adaptation and helped them to analyse consequences and possible solutions in a structured way. However, the scenarios that emerged mainly focused on socioeconomic drivers on which the planning body had a large impact or drivers that can be influenced through cooperation with other actors at the local or regional level. While this result underlines the need for local stakeholder involvement in scenario processes, it also indicates a local bias that could be remedied by a stronger representation of national and global perspectives in the scenario development process. Finally, we discuss how a “bottom-up” approach could be combined with a “consistency” approach, which points towards a possible way forward to a hybrid methodology that is compatible with the scenario framework currently being developed in connection to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC.

The nuclear accident in Fukushima serves as a harsh reminder of the risks of nuclear power and the difficulties of safeguarding against every possible hazard. The magnitude 9 earthquake and the massive tsunami that hit the site was 'beyond design basis', ...

The International Commission on Radiological Protection proposes that doses below a certain level should be excluded from the system of protection, without regard to the number of people exposed. As the Commission assumes that there is a risk of harm even from very low doses, the proposal also disregards these very low risks. The arguments for this proposal are examined here. It is argued that the fact that risks are small compared to natural sources cannot be used as justification for accepting them. The principle 'if the risk of harm to the health of the most exposed individual is trivial, then the total risk is trivial—irrespective of how many people are exposed' is analysed. It is found to equivocate on the meaning of the word trivial and to ignore the total risk. It is also argued that the new proposal is not justified by a change from a utilitarian ethic to an ethic based on individual rights. Finally, it is suggested that small doses should only be disregarded if the expected value of harm is small, and the exclusion level should thus depend on the number of people exposed.

Co-evolutionary scenarios are used for creative prototyping with the purpose of assessing potential implications of future autonomous robot systems on civil protection. The methodology is based on a co-evolutionary scenario approach and the development of different evolutionary paths. Opportunities, threats and ethical aspects in connection with the introduction of robotics in the domestic security and safety sector are identified using an iterative participatory workshop methodology. Three creative prototypes of robotic systems are described: "RoboMall", "RoboButler" and "SnakeSquad". The debate in society that might follow the introduction of these three robot systems and society's response to the experienced ethical problems and opportunities are discussed in the context of two scenarios of different future societies.

A warmer climate leads to rising sea levels. Despite uncertainties about how rapid and substantial future sea level rise will be, society needs to prepare. In this report we examine how 33 coastal municipalities in southern Sweden plan for rising sea levels and what estimated future sea levels their planning is based on. We also analyse the responses in a number of interviews with individuals responsible for sea level planning at the studied municipalities, county administrative boards, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and a consultancy firm. The greatest uncertainty in future sea level projections is how the inland ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will react to climate change. The reaction so far has been more rapid than previously thought. Recently, increasing levels have been mentioned in several articles published in scientific journals. In these articles, sea level rise is estimated to 1-2 metres by 2100 for the highest emissions scenarios. The sea will continue to rise for many centuries, even if greenhouse gas emissions cease completely. Local sea level rise differs from the global average and is affected by several factors. Our survey of municipal planning documents reveals that there are considerable gaps in current planning for future sea level rise. Almost one third of the municipalities studied have no estimates of future sea levels whatsoever in their planning. Among the municipalities that in fact estimate future sea levels, six out of ten lack clear sources for their estimates. SMHI is the dominant source for municipalities' estimates of future sea level rise. There is, however, considerable difference between the estimates of various municipalities. This illustrates the uncertainty that exists about what future sea level rise estimate is most reasonable to relate to. In recent years there is evidence of a trend that municipalities are using SMHI's estimate of a sea level rise of "around one metre" by 2100. Despite scientific studies indicating higher levels, most coastal municipalities in southern Sweden do not plan for sea level rise above one metre by the end of the 21st century. Currently planning for sea level rise beyond 2100 is lacking. SMHI, the County Administrative Board of Skåne and the municipality of Helsingborg emphasize the importance of planning more than 100 years into the future. However, few other municipalities plan for this time frame. This indicates that long-term planning for sea level rise needs to be improved. Our study reveals a lack of preparedness for more substantial sea level rise than estimated in current planning. The interviews show that even if several interviewees request planning for worst-case scenarios of future sea level rise, only MSB takes into account the worst possible outcome, as required by the European Union's Floods Directive. The study shows that municipalities and county administrative boards in southern Sweden demand increased clarity from the state, both in terms of concrete planning support and clear government guidelines for planning for sea level rise. Our study indicates a need for a government strategy for sea level planning in Sweden.