Articles & Chapters by Adam P Liff
Political parties' behavior in coalition formation is commonly explained by their policy-, vote-,... more Political parties' behavior in coalition formation is commonly explained by their policy-, vote-, and office-seeking incentives. From these perspectives, the twenty-year partnership of Japan's ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its pacifistic Komeito junior coalition partner is an anomalous case. The longevity, closeness, and nature of their unlikely partnership challenges core assumptions in existing theories of coalition politics. LDP-Komeito cooperation has sustained for two decades despite vastly different support bases and ideological differences on fundamental policy issues. LDP leaders also show no signs of abandoning the much smaller Komeito despite enjoying a single-party majority. We argue that the remarkable durability of this puzzling partnership results primarily from the two parties' electoral incentives and what has effectively become codependence under Japan's mixed electoral system. Our analysis also demonstrates that being in a coalition can induce significant policy compromises, even from a much larger senior partner. Beyond theoretical implications, these phenomena yield important real-world consequences for Japanese politics: especially, a far less dominant LDP than the party's Diet seat total suggests, and Komeito's remarkable ability to punch significantly above its weight and constrain its far larger senior partner, even on the latter's major national security policy priorities.
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In 2013, Japan’s first-ever National Security Council (NSC) was established as the leading edge o... more In 2013, Japan’s first-ever National Security Council (NSC) was established as the leading edge of ambitious reforms to Japan’s foreign policy-relevant institutions. Within weeks, Japan’s new national security tripod was firmly in place: the top-level, political NSC ‘control tower’, Japan’s first-ever National Security Strategy, and its first-ever National Security Secretariat. In the years since, the NSC has played a central role in every major aspect of the Japanese strategic trajectory that has attracted so much global attention (and controversy) in ‘the Abe era’. This study analyzes the motivations driving Japan’s decision to establish an NSC, the institution’s key characteristics, and offers a preliminary assessment of the current and likely future implications of this historic institutional reform. Beyond NSC’s impact on policy, of potentially greater long-term significance is its effects on Japan’s foreign policy decision-making processes: in particular, expanded Kantei-centered political leadership of national security affairs and more ‘whole-of-government’ approaches specifically designed to transcend the ‘vertical hurdles’ traditionally dividing Japan’s powerful bureaucracies. The goal of these reforms is as straightforward as it is ambitious: to transform Japan’s ability to flexibly and independently cope with a rapidly changing, increasingly complex, and ever more uncertain security environment in East Asia and beyond.
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Texas National Security Review, 2018
Widely considered Japan’s most powerful prime minister in decades, Shinzo Abe has responded to a ... more Widely considered Japan’s most powerful prime minister in decades, Shinzo Abe has responded to a changing security environment in the Asia-Pacific — including an increasingly powerful and assertive China and growing North Korean nuclear threat — by pursuing ambitious and controversial reforms. These have been aimed at strengthening executive control over foreign policy decision-making and bolstering deterrence through an expansion of the Japan Self-Defense Forces’ roles, missions, and capabilities within and beyond the U.S.-Japan alliance. Those reforms that his administration has achieved have invited claims that Abe is taking Japan on a radical path away from its postwar “pacifism.” However, a systematic analysis of both change and continuity during the Abe administration reveals that many of these reforms build on longer-term evolutionary trends that predate Abe and have attracted support from moderates within and outside his conservative Liberal Democratic Party. Just as importantly, several core pillars of Japan’s remarkably self-restrained defense posture remain in place, while Abe has pulled back from some of the more ambitious reforms he has championed in the past. Both points have important implications for Japan’s strategic trajectory, international relations in East Asia, and the U.S.-Japan alliance. Barring major external or domestic political structural change, Japan’s evolutionary reform trajectory is likely to continue. Yet the failure, so far, of Abe’s government to achieve its long-coveted, most ambitious reforms also indicates the persistent headwinds future prime ministers can expect to face.
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Journal of Strategic Studies, 2013
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International Security, 2014
In the post–Cold War period, scholars have considered the Asia Pacific to be ripe for military co... more In the post–Cold War period, scholars have considered the Asia Pacific to be ripe for military competition and conflict. Developments over the past decade have deepened these expectations. Across the region, rising military spending and efforts of various states to bolster their military capabilities appear to have created an increasingly volatile climate, along with potentially vicious cycles of mutual arming and rearming. In this context, claims that China's rapid economic growth and surging military spending are fomenting destabilizing arms races and security dilemmas are widespread. Such claims make for catchy headlines, yet they are rarely subject to rigorous empirical tests. Whether patterns of military competition in the Asia Pacific are in fact attributable to a security dilemma–based logic has important implications for international relations theory and foreign policy. The answer has direct consequences for how leaders can maximize the likelihood that peace and stability will prevail in this economically and strategically vital region. A systematic empirical test derived from influential theoretical scholarship on the security dilemma concept assesses the drivers of bilateral and multilateral frictions and military competition under way in the Asia Pacific. Security dilemma–driven competition appears to be an important contributor, yet the outcome is not structurally determined. Although this military competition could grow significantly in the near future, there are a number of available measures that could help to ameliorate or manage some of its worst aspects.
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Journal of Strategic Studies, 2012
This article examines the implications of the proliferation of cyberwarfare capabilities for the ... more This article examines the implications of the proliferation of cyberwarfare capabilities for the character and frequency of war. Consideration of strategic logic, perceptions, and bargaining dynamics finds that the size of the effect of the proliferation of cyberwarfare capabilities on the frequency of war will probably be relatively small. This effect will not be constant across all situations; in some cases the advent of cyberwarfare capabilities may decrease the likelihood of war. On the other hand, the use of computer network attack as a brute force weapon will probably become increasingly frequent.
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The China Quarterly, 2013
China’s limited transparency concerning its defence spending harms strategic
trust, but foreign ... more China’s limited transparency concerning its defence spending harms strategic
trust, but foreign analysts often lose sight of important realities.
Specific details remain unclear, but China’s defence spending overall is no
mystery – it supports PLA modernization and personnel development as
well as its announced objectives of securing China’s homeland and asserting
control over contested territorial and maritime claims, with a focus on the
Near Seas (the Yellow, East, and South China seas). This article offers
greater context and perspective for Chinese and Western discussions of
China’s rise and concomitant military build-up through a nuanced and comprehensive
assessment of its defence spending and military transparency.
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The Washington Quarterly, 2015
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International Security, 2015
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Journal of Contemporary China, 2016
As China’s active assertion of its claim to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has increasingly crowded t... more As China’s active assertion of its claim to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has increasingly crowded the surrounding waters and airspace with military and paramilitary forces, the risk of a Sino–Japanese crisis has reached unprecedented heights. Neither side wants conflict, but the increased frequency and proximity at which vessels and aircraft encounter one another means that overall risk has grown proportionately. Were a miscalculation or even an unintended low-level incident to occur, de-escalation would hinge on each side’s respective internal crisis management capabilities and political leaders’ ability to communicate expeditiously. This article analyzes China’s side of the ledger. Specifically, it assesses the extent to which institutional reforms since the 2001 US–China EP-3 crisis have ameliorated longstanding weaknesses in China’s crisis management capabilities and its ability to communicate via hotlines with Japan. While significant issues and obstacles to further urgently needed improvements remain, with the establishment of a Central National Security Commission (CNSC) and other recent reforms, Beijing may finally be achieving modest improvements. Bilaterally, however, no Sino–Japanese crisis hotline exists to date.
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Security Studies, 2016
Post-Cold War, balancing theory has fallen on " hard times. " A question of crucial importance fo... more Post-Cold War, balancing theory has fallen on " hard times. " A question of crucial importance for 21st-century peace and stability concerns how Asia-Pacific secondary states are responding militarily to China's rise. China's rapid growth, military modernization, and controversial policies vis-à-vis contested space and territories on its periphery make it a prime candidate for counterbalancing behavior. Yet several recent studies claim that secondary states are accommodating, even bandwagoning with, Beijing. This study challenges these claims, attributing them largely to problematic research designs not uncommon in the wider balancing literature. It proposes a methodological corrective, arguing for widespread employment of an alternative analytical framework relying on clearer definitions and explicitly delineated sets of 21st-century-relevant metrics reflecting the myriad ways contemporary militaries enhance their capabilities in response to perceived threats. Applied systematically to original analysis of the contemporary Asia-Pacific, this framework uncovers what existing studies miss—evidence of practically significant, and accelerating, balancing against China. for feedback on earlier drafts.
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ASAN Forum, 2015
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Journal of Strategic Studies, 2017
Since 2012, China’s assertion of its sovereignty claim to the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands ha... more Since 2012, China’s assertion of its sovereignty claim to the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has significantly raised the risk of a potentially escalatory political-military crisis with Japan. As circumstances worsen, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has championed major institutional reforms aimed at centralizing Japanese security policy decision-making and vastly improving crisis management. This article assesses these reforms’ significance for ameliorating Japan’s long-standing internal crisis management weaknesses, and enhancing its ability to communicate with Beijing promptly under challenging conditions. While significant issues remain, recent developments – especially the establishment of Japan’s first-ever National Security Council – demonstrate significant progress. Bilaterally, however, important firebreaks remain conspicuously absent.
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The China Quarterly, 2018
Abstract In recent years, scholarship examining US and security allies’ responses to China's rapi... more Abstract In recent years, scholarship examining US and security allies’ responses to China's rapidly growing power and “assertive” policies towards its neighbours has proliferated. The English-language literature remains relatively one-sided, however. Crucial to understanding the complex forces driving strategic competition in the contemporary Asia-Pacific are comprehensive surveys of how Chinese views are evolving. This study draws extensively on Chinese sources to update existing scholarship, much of it two decades old, with a particular focus on recent Chinese reactions to major developments concerning the US-centred alliance system – a foundational element of the 65-year-old regional order. Beijing expresses deepening frustration towards, and even open opposition to, recent alliance strengthening, and instead champions alternative security architectures free of what it alleges to be “exclusive,” “zero-sum,” “Cold-war relic” US-centred alliances. Proposals for concrete pathways to operationalizing these abstract visions that take into account contemporary political and security realities (for example, North Korea), however, appear less forthcoming. , 摘要 近年来, 分析美国与其安全联盟应对中国的崛起及其 “强势”周边外交的学术研究不断增加。但是, 英语文献仍然具有相对的片面性。比较欠缺的是对于中方观点的演变做全面研究, 而这对理解当代亚太地区战略竞争的复杂驱动因素至为重要。本文用中文, 日文, 和英文材料对基本已有二十多年的现有文献做进一步更新。本文主要分析中国如何应对以美国为主导的联盟体系的新发展 – 而这一联盟体系是七十多年来区域秩序现状的基础构成。中国领导人对于近来 (美国东亚) 联盟体系的强化表现出不满甚至公开的反对; 中方领导人倡导一种替代性的安全结构, 以代替他们认为是 “排他”、“零和” 以及 “冷战遗产” 的美国主导的联盟体系。但是, 考虑到诸如北朝鲜一类当代政治和安全的现实挑战, 如何实现替代秩序的具体路径建议, 仍然是非常欠缺的。
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Asia Policy, 2017
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Articles & Chapters by Adam P Liff
trust, but foreign analysts often lose sight of important realities.
Specific details remain unclear, but China’s defence spending overall is no
mystery – it supports PLA modernization and personnel development as
well as its announced objectives of securing China’s homeland and asserting
control over contested territorial and maritime claims, with a focus on the
Near Seas (the Yellow, East, and South China seas). This article offers
greater context and perspective for Chinese and Western discussions of
China’s rise and concomitant military build-up through a nuanced and comprehensive
assessment of its defence spending and military transparency.
trust, but foreign analysts often lose sight of important realities.
Specific details remain unclear, but China’s defence spending overall is no
mystery – it supports PLA modernization and personnel development as
well as its announced objectives of securing China’s homeland and asserting
control over contested territorial and maritime claims, with a focus on the
Near Seas (the Yellow, East, and South China seas). This article offers
greater context and perspective for Chinese and Western discussions of
China’s rise and concomitant military build-up through a nuanced and comprehensive
assessment of its defence spending and military transparency.