Sigma: Journal of Political and International Studies, 2005
Jllternational relations specialists ha1!e produced abllndallt litelllture on the CiJinaTaiwan cr... more Jllternational relations specialists ha1!e produced abllndallt litelllture on the CiJinaTaiwan crisis, which is among the most /io/atile issues .fu·ing the United States. But thusfar, .tew halle predicted the olltcome o/t/Je crisis, which / intend to do. / use game theOl:y to model the expected behal'ior o/the three countries while considering each 0/ the other;actiOlzs. JOI',,"!/lllize the outcomes based Oil the four major regime-type re/atiollShip optiolls fwailable to China alld Taiwan: reTI 11 ijiCtltio II, cOlzteriellltioll, commOllwefllth, alld illrlepmdmce. By bllildillg Oil preuiolls research, / define the illcefltiue structures the three co II II tries .flce. \,(/ithin thatjTaml'work / examine I'llery possible coune 0/ actiOiI accessible to each col/lltry and how each course of actio II afficts their payoffs. Then lfind the Nash-EquilibriulIl COllrse o/fletion. / predict that China and Taiu1an luill peacefitl(y ,liJrlll a commOllll'ealth, because ne...
The following is an extended version of my article for The News Lens International Edition, “What... more The following is an extended version of my article for The News Lens International Edition, “What Baseball Says about Taiwanese Culture and Identity,” published on November 5, 2020. https://international.thenewslens.com/article/142896 TNL is Taiwan’s highest-quality English news source and I’m grateful to them for affording me an opportunity to contribute. Due to space limitations, a lot of detail and the last section on Confucian and Japanese influences were sacrificed. They suggested I focus on the other three issues, and rightly so. I would add that the excised segment is not even an “issue,” yet adds to our understanding of Taiwanese culture. This paper contains the last point from the original while retaining the economy the TNL editors provided.
The following is an alternate version of my article for The News Lens International Edition, “Wha... more The following is an alternate version of my article for The News Lens International Edition, “What Baseball Says about Taiwanese Culture and Identity,” published on November 5, 2020. https://international.thenewslens.com/article/142896 TNL is Taiwan’s highest-quality English news service and I’m grateful to them for affording me an opportunity to contribute. Due to space limitations, a lot of detail and the last section were sacrificed. They suggested I focus on the other three issues, and rightly so. I would add that the aforementioned segment is not even an “issue.” I still believe it adds to our understanding of Taiwanese culture. This document aims to restore the last section while retaining the economy and stylistic enhancements the TNL editor provided in the process.
Beane (Lemire 2015) identified injury prevention as the next frontier in sports analytics. In thi... more Beane (Lemire 2015) identified injury prevention as the next frontier in sports analytics. In this study, I demonstrate that statistics is essential by examining re-injury prevention, through testing whether NCAA coaches and players, facing the need to limit repetitions as key players recover from injury, allocate those repetitions in a manner that maximizes win probability. I calculate in-game win probabilities using the methodology of Stern (1991) and Winston (2009), NCAA historical point spread data from Covers.com, and NCAA expected points of each down-distance-position state from Knowlton (2015). As a test case, I consider Brigham Young University's use of dual-threat quarterback Taysom Hill in his 2016 return from a prior-year Lisfranc injury. I extract play-by-play data from BYUCougars.com using R's rvest package and regular expression functions. I determine the situations in which Hill's rushing, based on his yards per carry prior to the game on standard and passing downs, maximizes changes in win probability.
Brigham Young University's highly-visible football program stands at the nexus of The LDS Church ... more Brigham Young University's highly-visible football program stands at the nexus of The LDS Church and the beloved American cultural institution of football. This study examines the program in the context of the proliferation of " analytics, " or advanced statistics, that is revolutionizing decision-making in sports, business, and other areas of life. New analytic thinking has enabled the evaluation of the program's performance under different head coaches. Its overachievement for its aggregate talent level in the past may be credited to its best talent being concentrated at the two most important positions. Currently, the program is acquiring the best talent at the most important position but not at the second and third most important, though that will likely change with recent events. Helpful to the program's recruiting efforts would be membership in a top-tier conference. The program's outgoing staff has demonstrated conscientiousness of some analytic findings. The new staff has used new metrics and standard analytic practices, though receptiveness to analytics among its high-level members has not been uniform. This study has implications for how Church-affiliated institutions respond to changes in the intellectual atmosphere.
Sigma: Journal of Political and International Studies, 2005
Jllternational relations specialists ha1!e produced abllndallt litelllture on the CiJinaTaiwan cr... more Jllternational relations specialists ha1!e produced abllndallt litelllture on the CiJinaTaiwan crisis, which is among the most /io/atile issues .fu·ing the United States. But thusfar, .tew halle predicted the olltcome o/t/Je crisis, which / intend to do. / use game theOl:y to model the expected behal'ior o/the three countries while considering each 0/ the other;actiOlzs. JOI',,"!/lllize the outcomes based Oil the four major regime-type re/atiollShip optiolls fwailable to China alld Taiwan: reTI 11 ijiCtltio II, cOlzteriellltioll, commOllwefllth, alld illrlepmdmce. By bllildillg Oil preuiolls research, / define the illcefltiue structures the three co II II tries .flce. \,(/ithin thatjTaml'work / examine I'llery possible coune 0/ actiOiI accessible to each col/lltry and how each course of actio II afficts their payoffs. Then lfind the Nash-EquilibriulIl COllrse o/fletion. / predict that China and Taiu1an luill peacefitl(y ,liJrlll a commOllll'ealth, because ne...
The following is an extended version of my article for The News Lens International Edition, “What... more The following is an extended version of my article for The News Lens International Edition, “What Baseball Says about Taiwanese Culture and Identity,” published on November 5, 2020. https://international.thenewslens.com/article/142896 TNL is Taiwan’s highest-quality English news source and I’m grateful to them for affording me an opportunity to contribute. Due to space limitations, a lot of detail and the last section on Confucian and Japanese influences were sacrificed. They suggested I focus on the other three issues, and rightly so. I would add that the excised segment is not even an “issue,” yet adds to our understanding of Taiwanese culture. This paper contains the last point from the original while retaining the economy the TNL editors provided.
The following is an alternate version of my article for The News Lens International Edition, “Wha... more The following is an alternate version of my article for The News Lens International Edition, “What Baseball Says about Taiwanese Culture and Identity,” published on November 5, 2020. https://international.thenewslens.com/article/142896 TNL is Taiwan’s highest-quality English news service and I’m grateful to them for affording me an opportunity to contribute. Due to space limitations, a lot of detail and the last section were sacrificed. They suggested I focus on the other three issues, and rightly so. I would add that the aforementioned segment is not even an “issue.” I still believe it adds to our understanding of Taiwanese culture. This document aims to restore the last section while retaining the economy and stylistic enhancements the TNL editor provided in the process.
Beane (Lemire 2015) identified injury prevention as the next frontier in sports analytics. In thi... more Beane (Lemire 2015) identified injury prevention as the next frontier in sports analytics. In this study, I demonstrate that statistics is essential by examining re-injury prevention, through testing whether NCAA coaches and players, facing the need to limit repetitions as key players recover from injury, allocate those repetitions in a manner that maximizes win probability. I calculate in-game win probabilities using the methodology of Stern (1991) and Winston (2009), NCAA historical point spread data from Covers.com, and NCAA expected points of each down-distance-position state from Knowlton (2015). As a test case, I consider Brigham Young University's use of dual-threat quarterback Taysom Hill in his 2016 return from a prior-year Lisfranc injury. I extract play-by-play data from BYUCougars.com using R's rvest package and regular expression functions. I determine the situations in which Hill's rushing, based on his yards per carry prior to the game on standard and passing downs, maximizes changes in win probability.
Brigham Young University's highly-visible football program stands at the nexus of The LDS Church ... more Brigham Young University's highly-visible football program stands at the nexus of The LDS Church and the beloved American cultural institution of football. This study examines the program in the context of the proliferation of " analytics, " or advanced statistics, that is revolutionizing decision-making in sports, business, and other areas of life. New analytic thinking has enabled the evaluation of the program's performance under different head coaches. Its overachievement for its aggregate talent level in the past may be credited to its best talent being concentrated at the two most important positions. Currently, the program is acquiring the best talent at the most important position but not at the second and third most important, though that will likely change with recent events. Helpful to the program's recruiting efforts would be membership in a top-tier conference. The program's outgoing staff has demonstrated conscientiousness of some analytic findings. The new staff has used new metrics and standard analytic practices, though receptiveness to analytics among its high-level members has not been uniform. This study has implications for how Church-affiliated institutions respond to changes in the intellectual atmosphere.
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https://international.thenewslens.com/article/142896
TNL is Taiwan’s highest-quality English news source and I’m grateful to them for affording me an opportunity to contribute. Due to space limitations, a lot of detail and the last section on Confucian and Japanese influences were sacrificed. They suggested I focus on the other three issues, and rightly so. I would add that the excised segment is not even an “issue,” yet adds to our understanding of Taiwanese culture. This paper contains the last point from the original while retaining the economy the TNL editors provided.
https://international.thenewslens.com/article/142896
TNL is Taiwan’s highest-quality English news service and I’m grateful to them for affording me an opportunity to contribute. Due to space limitations, a lot of detail and the last section were sacrificed. They suggested I focus on the other three issues, and rightly so. I would add that the aforementioned segment is not even an “issue.” I still believe it adds to our understanding of Taiwanese culture. This document aims to restore the last section while retaining the economy and stylistic enhancements the TNL editor provided in the process.
Drafts
https://international.thenewslens.com/article/142896
TNL is Taiwan’s highest-quality English news source and I’m grateful to them for affording me an opportunity to contribute. Due to space limitations, a lot of detail and the last section on Confucian and Japanese influences were sacrificed. They suggested I focus on the other three issues, and rightly so. I would add that the excised segment is not even an “issue,” yet adds to our understanding of Taiwanese culture. This paper contains the last point from the original while retaining the economy the TNL editors provided.
https://international.thenewslens.com/article/142896
TNL is Taiwan’s highest-quality English news service and I’m grateful to them for affording me an opportunity to contribute. Due to space limitations, a lot of detail and the last section were sacrificed. They suggested I focus on the other three issues, and rightly so. I would add that the aforementioned segment is not even an “issue.” I still believe it adds to our understanding of Taiwanese culture. This document aims to restore the last section while retaining the economy and stylistic enhancements the TNL editor provided in the process.