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... countries show a low incidence of nontariff barriers, namely Djibouti, Qatar, and the UAE, while all ... only when" economic conditions had deteriorated sufficiently so that there emerged a political imperative for better... more
... countries show a low incidence of nontariff barriers, namely Djibouti, Qatar, and the UAE, while all ... only when" economic conditions had deteriorated sufficiently so that there emerged a political imperative for better economic performance." 18 In other words, reform is often ...
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The objective of this chapter is to develop a theoretical framework of the real sector of a small open economy which will then be tested in Chapter 3 using annual and quarterly data from six EC member countries.
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The theoretical analysis of the last chapter will now be employed to estimate the structure of the financial markets. Portfolio-balance models are specified and estimated for six European economies: Germany, France, Italy, the... more
The theoretical analysis of the last chapter will now be employed to estimate the structure of the financial markets. Portfolio-balance models are specified and estimated for six European economies: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and the United Kingdom. The financial sector of the last-named country has so many institutional characteristics, as well as specific data requirements, that we found it necessary to treat it separately. In fact, the UK model is presented in Section VI. For the other five countries we employ, instead, a common framework, discussed in Section II. Section III tackles the problems of exchange rate modelling and exchange rate expectations; Section IV, estimation methods; Section V, the findings for the five European countries and Section VII the simulation and tracking performance of the models.
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The theory of Chapter 2 explains domestically-produced output, domestic prices and the overall price level in terms of foreign prices, money, the exchange rate and other impulses. The central feature of the theory is the Lucas supply of... more
The theory of Chapter 2 explains domestically-produced output, domestic prices and the overall price level in terms of foreign prices, money, the exchange rate and other impulses. The central feature of the theory is the Lucas supply of output extended to an open economy which incorporates, in addition to inflation-rate misperceptions, terms-of-trade effects, the ‘tax wedge’ and wage indexation.
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This paper empirically shows, for a panel of 31 developing countries studied during the 1980s and the 1990s, that governance institutions constitute an important part of the investment climate of the developing economies. This result... more
This paper empirically shows, for a panel of 31 developing countries studied during the 1980s and the 1990s, that governance institutions constitute an important part of the investment climate of the developing economies. This result strongly holds for the “Quality of Administration” and confirms that a low level of corruption, a good quality of bureaucracy, a reliable judiciary, a strong security of property rights, a reasonable risk to operations, as well as a sound taxation and regulation contribute significantly to the firms' decision to invest. In Middle East and North Africa, improved governance institutions would greatly stimulate private investment decisions.
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ABSTRACT
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This paper shows that, during the 1970s and 1980s, MENA economies were characterized by a significant overvaluation of their currency. This overvaluation has had a cost in terms of competitiveness. To determine the degree of overvaluation... more
This paper shows that, during the 1970s and 1980s, MENA economies were characterized by a significant overvaluation of their currency. This overvaluation has had a cost in terms of competitiveness. To determine the degree of overvaluation of the MENA currencies, an indicator of misalignment was developed based on the estimation of an equilibrium exchange rate (Edwards, Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries, The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1988). The empirical work was based on a panel of 53 developing countries, ten of which are MENA economies. Although overvaluation decreased in the 1990s, probably due to flexibilization of the exchange rate regime in some MENA countries and to better macroeconomic management in others, misalignment remained higher than in other regions. This may be explained by the MENA countries' delay in adopting more flexible exchange rates, as well as in reforming their economies. In terms of competitiveness, the estimation of an export equation has shown that manufactured exports have been significantly affected by the overvaluation of the MENA currencies. Countries that already had a more diversified economy benefited more from the decreased overvaluation in the 1990s. These countries also saw a continuous rise in diversification of their manufactured exports, resulting from the significant decline in exchange rate misalignment.
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In this paper a supply of output model is developed and empirically tested for six EC-countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the U.K.) during the sample period 1960-80. We study the empirical importance of... more
In this paper a supply of output model is developed and empirically tested for six EC-countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the U.K.) during the sample period 1960-80. We study the empirical importance of inflationary surprise variables on the supply of output. The conclusion of this empirical analysis is that, at least during the seventies, inflationary surprises (as measured by a time-series procedure or based on the ECsurvey) were insignificant in most countries. We also tested for the empirical importance of the terms of trade and taxation variables in the supply of output equations. It is found that the (intermediate good) terms of trade had a significant negative effect on output in most EC-countries. The empirical evidence about the effect of taxation is mixed. I II III IV v VI VII VIII CONTENTS Introduction The theoretical framework The comparative statistics of the model Extension of the model Estimation of the model The supply of output equations ...
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Over the past three decades, the share of Tunisia's output of fruits and vegetables passing through the capital's wholesale market has declined sharply. One reason is that, following the formation of a porters' cooperative,... more
Over the past three decades, the share of Tunisia's output of fruits and vegetables passing through the capital's wholesale market has declined sharply. One reason is that, following the formation of a porters' cooperative, the cost of portage services and, hence, that of using the market has skyrocketed. In advancing this argument, the paper explores how the cooperative has managed to maintain a monopoly over portage services despite widespread dissatisfaction with its performance. In addition, it offers some thoughts on the distributional and efficiency implications of various changes engendered by the cooperative in the market's mode of operation.
Middle East and North Africa Region. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the... more
Middle East and North Africa Region. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
The implementation by Maghreb countries of the Preferential Trading Area Agreements with the European Union is one of the main factors that will determine their economic performance over the next 15-20 years. The most significant feature... more
The implementation by Maghreb countries of the Preferential Trading Area Agreements with the European Union is one of the main factors that will determine their economic performance over the next 15-20 years. The most significant feature of the agreements is the implied unilateral liberal isation and opening to imports of manufactured products by the Maghreb countries. The objective of this paper is to gain some insights into the likely impact of this u nilateral trade liberalisation by the Maghreb countries by looking at similar trade liber alisation experiences in developing countries and to derive some lessons fro m the comparison.
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This paper explores the Tunisian experience of exports diversification and the role played by industrial policies. It describes the general trends and the dynamics of diversification using a very disaggregated data set on exports for the... more
This paper explores the Tunisian experience of exports diversification and the role played by industrial policies. It describes the general trends and the dynamics of diversification using a very disaggregated data set on exports for the period 1995-2017, for both primary and resource-based products and manufactured products. It has been generally recognized that openness and export promotion policies established since the early 1970s succeeded in allowing Tunisia to achieve significant export growth, especially in low-technology manufacturing. But, until recently, the general wisdom has been that the country has achieved limited success in moving up the technological ladder, with diversification, and sophistication of exports. In this paper, we show that this view is not warranted and that extensive diversification and sophistication has taken place over the last couple of decades, and more significantly the most recent period, in which Tunisia has been remarkably resilient, despit...
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... these transi-tions will be better governance, improved quality of education, and greater ... Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Growth 100 initiates deeper, broad-based reforms then ... Tunisia, Jordan, Algeria, Syria, Yemen,... more
... these transi-tions will be better governance, improved quality of education, and greater ... Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Growth 100 initiates deeper, broad-based reforms then ... Tunisia, Jordan, Algeria, Syria, Yemen, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and the ...
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Research Interests: Poverty and Agriculture
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... 9 REFERENCES Aron, Janine. 2000. Growth and Institutions: A Review of the Evidence. World Bank ... Rodrik, Dani. Trade Policy Reform as Institutional Reform. 2002. In BM Hoekman , P. English, and A. Mattoo, eds., Development,... more
... 9 REFERENCES Aron, Janine. 2000. Growth and Institutions: A Review of the Evidence. World Bank ... Rodrik, Dani. Trade Policy Reform as Institutional Reform. 2002. In BM Hoekman , P. English, and A. Mattoo, eds., Development, Trade, and the WTO: A Handbook, World ...
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The analysis in this paper helps understand the progress in reforms and development of the private sector in the Middle East and North Africa. It shows the critical role played by the State-private sector relations in determining the... more
The analysis in this paper helps understand the progress in reforms and development of the private sector in the Middle East and North Africa. It shows the critical role played by the State-private sector relations in determining the progress of reforms and their impact on private sector development. The authoritarian nature of the political regimes and the existence of large
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... In a small, closed, facetoface Akerlof, Stiglitz, Spence and others. ... institutions that evolve to lower these costs are North and Thomas (1973) have explained econo the key to the ... But at the same time we should not ignore,... more
... In a small, closed, facetoface Akerlof, Stiglitz, Spence and others. ... institutions that evolve to lower these costs are North and Thomas (1973) have explained econo the key to the ... But at the same time we should not ignore, process (following Bowles) or a more egalitarian as Dow ...